Enlarged Committee for Route Charges CER-106-2016-3565 ITEM 2 28.6.16 INFORMATION PAPER INITIAL ESTIMATES OF THE ROUTE CHARGES COST-BASES AND UNIT RATES CRCO Overview – Estimated figures – June 2016 - Submitted by the Agency - States' and users' representatives will find attached the CRCO Overview on en route charges, service units and unit rates. The overview covers the period 2011-2019. CRCO Overview – Estimated figures June 2016 The CRCO overview on en-route charges, service units and unit rates covers the period 2011-2019. Forecast data are the estimated figures that Member States are presenting at the 106th Session of the enlarged Committee on 29-30 June 2016, in accordance with the EUROCONTROL Principles. It should be noted that the actual 2015 figures of Germany are not yet available. Therefore the determined 2015 costs of Germany were used in this Overview for the consolidation. 1. Traffic overview Traffic is expressed in terms of total service units (chargeable plus exempted). Data are actual until 2015. Forecast data are based on the Reporting Tables of States submitted in June 2016: Table 1a and Table 1b present, for the 38 States constituting CRCO11, the current States’ forecast (June 2016) the STATFOR’s long term forecasts dated February 2016. − − For States having adopted the determined cost method, the service units correspond to the determined service units as reported for RP2; For States having adopted the full cost recovery method the forecast service units are those used for the calculation of the preliminary unit rates for 2017-2019; CRCO11 - Total service units (in m illions) Forecast June 2016 - States Data 11A 12A 123 STATFOR February 2016 Forecast 14A 15A 16F 17F 18F 19F 124 131 137 138 140 144 148 5.7% -1.3% 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 0.5% 1.8% 3.1% 2.8% 123 % SUF February/States Forecast June 2016 13A 122 122 124 131 137 141 145 149 154 5.7% -1.3% 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% Table 1a: Total Service Units –2011 States Table 1b presents the same figures but separately for the determined and the full cost recovery States. For 2016-2019, the STATFOR’s forecasts are above the determined States’ forecasts by 4.6 % and below by 4.6 % for the full costs recovery States’ forecasts. CRCO11 - Total service units 12A 13A 14A 15A 16F 17F 18F 19F Forecast 2016 - Determined Service Units 106.7 108.5 113.3 118.9 118.6 120.7 122.9 125.3 STATFOR February 2016 Forecast -(Determined Costs States) 106.7 108.5 113.3 118.9 122.8 125.8 129.1 132.4 % SUF February/ Determined Costs States Forecast June 2016 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 4.3% 5.0% Forecast June 2016 - Full Costs Recovery 14.9 15.6 18.1 18.0 19.0 19.3 21.4 23.1 STATFOR February 2016 Forecast - Full Costs Rec. States 14.9 15.6 18.1 18.0 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.5% -0.4% -5.9% -8.5% % SUF February/Full Costs States Forecast June 2016 Table 1b: Total Service Units –2011 States STATFOR May 2016 Forecast In May 2016 STATFOR published updated forecast for 2016 (142 MTSU) and 2017 (146 MTSU), very close to the February 2016 forecast as reported above. The year 2016: The total en-route service units in the participating EUROCONTROL Member States (CRCO14) are expected to grow by 3.6% (±1 percentage point - pp) in 2016 compared to 2015 and reach 142.6 million This is an upwards revision by 0.5pp compared to the 3.1% growth expected in the February 2016 forecast. This upward revision mainly concerns Western and North-Eastern European countries, such as France, United Kingdom, Germany, the Czech Republic or Slovakia, whose forecasts have sometimes been revised by more than 1 pp upwards. One exception to it is Belgium, whose 2016 forecast growth has been revised down to 2.1% (-1.7 pp compared to the February 2016 forecast), as a consequence of the terrorist attacks at Brussels airport. 2 A general downwards revision is observed along the Adriatic coast (i.e. Italy, Croatia, Bosnia and Albania) as well as in FYROM and Greece following the recent weaker traffic from/to Turkey and Egypt and the re-rerouting of flows towards Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR and Bulgaria whose forecasts have been revised upwards. En-route service units are also expected to be lower in Finland and Sweden because of their weaker trends, whereas the Norwegian forecast is now more optimistic with a revision 1.6pp upwards. The growth rates in Spain, Canary Islands and Portugal are expected to be strong, and have been revised upwards to values over 6% in 2016 with expected additional traffic linked to their attractiveness as a holiday destination following the decline of touristic North-African destinations. The year 2017: Growth of service units in 2017 is expected to be slightly lower (-0.1pp) compared to what was expected in the February 2016 forecast and the CRCO14 area is expected to see a rate of 2.7% (+/- 1.5pp) compared to 2016 to reach 146.5 million TSU”. Average annual growth of service units between 2015-2017 (STATFOR May 2016) Source : STATFOR May 2016 Forecast 2. Average unit rates charged to users– 2011-2019 The average unit rates as shown in Chart 2 are calculated by dividing the “total charges” by “total service units”. Data until 2015 are actual (Source: Annual reports on the operation of the route charges system). The 2016 figures correspond to the service unit forecasts reported in June 2016 and to the average adjusted unit rates for 2016, assuming that exchange rates will remain at the April levels until the end of December 2016. Data for 2016-2019 are the preliminary figures presented at the 106th Session of the enlarged Committee. In the calculation of the average unit rate of the year 2015 the applied unit rates have been taken into account in the calculation. The applied unit rate (€ 90.15) of Germany in 2015 has been used in this calculation. 3 Average national charge per service unit (€) All States 70.0 60.0 57.6 57.6 57.4 57.2 58.6 11A 12A 13A 14A 15A 56.5 55.0 55.8 55.0 16F 17F 18F 19F 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Chart 2: Average national charge per service unit The average unit rate of 2015 was calculated by the approved/applied unit rates of Germany, BelgiumLuxembourg and France which were revised in the current reporting tables. The average unit rate of 2015 (€58.6) is peak due to these higher unit rates. In the RP1 period the average unit rate is €57.4 and the average unit rate charged to users will be € 56.2 in 2015-2019 (RP2). National charges (billed plus exempted), total service units and unit rate figures as reported in June 2016 are detailed in Table 2 (for all States and separately for States applying the determined cost method and States applying the full cost recovery method). Sum m ary June 2016 11A 12A 13A 14A 15A 16F 17F 18F 19F National charges (M€) - Billed and exem pted 7,102 6,998 7,128 7,561 8,064 7,811 7,745 8,104 8,207 6.8% -1.5% 1.8% 6.1% 6.7% -3.1% -0.8% 4.6% 1.3% 6,599 6,501 6,577 6,893 7,464 7,249 7,131 7,372 7,403 6.5% -1.5% 1.2% 4.8% 8.3% -2.9% -1.6% 3.4% 0.4% 503 497 551 668 600 562 614 732 803 10.5% -1.1% 10.8% 21.2% -10.2% -6.4% 9.3% 19.2% 9.8% States applying the determined cost method States applying the full cost recovery method Total SU (in m illion) States applying the determined cost method States applying the full cost recovery method Average unit rate (in €) States applying the determined cost method States applying the full cost recovery method 123 122 124 132 138 138 141 145 149 5.5% -1.3% 2.1% 6.4% 4.2% 0.5% 1.8% 3.1% 2.8% 108 107 109 113 119 119 121 123 125 5.2% -1.6% 1.7% 4.4% 5.0% -0.3% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15 15 16 19 19 20 20 22 24 7.7% 0.4% 5.2% 20.4% -0.3% 5.4% 1.8% 10.5% 7.6% 57.6 57.6 57.4 57.2 58.6 56.5 55.0 55.8 55.0 1.2% -0.1% -0.3% -0.3% 2.4% -3.6% -2.6% 1.5% -1.5% 60.9 60.9 60.6 60.8 62.8 61.1 59.1 60.0 59.1 1.2% 0.1% -0.5% 0.4% 3.2% -2.6% -3.4% 1.5% -1.5% 34.0 33.5 35.2 35.5 32.0 28.4 30.5 32.9 33.5 2.6% -1.5% 5.3% 0.7% -9.8% -11.2% 7.4% 7.9% 2.0% Table 2: National Charges-Billed and Exempted – All States –June 2016 For States applying the determined cost method, the average unit rate is decreasing every year from the peak of € 62.8 in 2015 to € 59.1 in 2019. For States applying the full cost recovery method, the average unit rate of charge increased between 2012 and 2014. It is decreasing by 9.8% in 2015 and by 11.2 % in 2016. The average unit rate will increase by 7.4% in 2017 and thereafter. 4 3. Variations in unit rates, service units and costs per State between 2016 and 2017 3.(a) Variations in the unit rates In the following Table 3, the variations in States’ unit rates expressed in national currencies between 2016 and 2017. For this purpose, the 2016 unit rates have been converted into euro at the April 2016 exchange rate. The exchange rate variations are presented in the following page. The 2016 figures correspond to the service unit forecasts reported in November 2015 (for Moldova the figures reported in the revised reporting tables). The average inflation in the EUROCONTROL area is a weighted average of inflation rates (average weighted by route charge amounts in euro). In Table 3 forecast charges are expressed in million euro and total service units in millions. Unit rates are expressed in euro. Com parison 2016 and 2017 based on € rates at April 2016 exchange rates 2016 FIN (XR April 2016) TSU * Rates 2017 PRE (XR April 2016) TSU Rates TSU * Rates TSU Rates Variations 2017/2016 Costs Inflation rate TSU Rates 2016 2017 Austria 204.471 2.777 73.63 207.224 2.850 72.71 1.3% 2.6% -1.2% 1.7% 1.7% Belgium-Lux. 164.179 2.510 65.41 174.150 2.580 67.50 6.1% 2.8% 3.2% 1.2% 1.3% 2.2% Bulgaria 60.248 2.667 22.59 71.385 2.903 24.59 18.5% 8.8% 8.9% 1.8% Croatia 85.459 1.783 47.93 83.421 1.808 46.14 -2.4% 1.4% -3.7% 1.0% 1.5% Cyprus 47.863 1.426 33.57 49.572 1.457 34.02 3.6% 2.2% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% Czech Republic 113.312 2.637 42.97 114.141 2.717 42.01 0.7% 3.0% -2.2% 2.0% Denmark 97.119 1.571 61.82 96.135 1.589 60.50 -1.0% 1.1% -2.1% 2.2% 2.2% Finland 45.659 0.812 56.23 46.502 0.827 56.23 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.7% 1.9% France 1,295.215 19.177 67.54 1,301.785 19.300 67.45 0.5% 0.6% -0.1% 0.8% 1.1% Germany 1,078.378 13.057 82.59 1,013.150 13.122 77.21 -6.0% 0.5% -6.5% 1.6% 1.7% 155.544 4.318 36.02 131.928 4.405 29.95 -15.2% 2.0% -16.9% 1.1% 1.2% Greece 82.628 2.364 34.95 84.894 2.414 35.17 2.7% 2.1% 0.6% 3.0% 3.0% Ireland Hungary 120.152 4.050 29.67 121.712 4.113 29.59 1.3% 1.6% -0.3% 1.2% 1.4% Italy 709.993 8.866 80.08 736.591 9.207 80.00 3.7% 3.9% -0.1% 1.1% 1.3% Latvia 22.503 0.824 27.31 23.033 0.844 27.29 2.4% 2.4% -0.1% 2.3% 2.3% Lithuania 22.836 0.509 44.90 23.168 0.525 44.14 1.5% 3.2% -1.7% 2.2% 2.5% Malta 16.016 0.621 25.79 16.535 0.634 26.08 3.2% 2.1% 1.1% 1.8% 1.7% Netherlands 189.331 2.826 67.00 188.864 2.846 66.37 -0.2% 0.7% -0.9% 1.2% 1.4% Norw ay 96.991 2.368 40.96 112.803 2.439 46.25 16.3% 3.0% 12.9% 1.7% 2.1% Poland 153.360 4.544 33.75 163.713 4.699 34.84 6.8% 3.4% 3.2% 2.5% 2.5% Portugal Lisboa 123.871 3.105 39.90 125.264 3.122 40.12 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Portugal S.M. 46.837 4.337 10.80 43.836 4.388 9.99 -6.4% 1.2% -7.5% 1.5% 149.818 4.117 36.39 140.875 4.219 33.39 -6.0% 2.5% -8.2% 3.0% 2.8% Slovak Republic 59.160 1.126 52.54 62.312 1.186 52.54 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 1.4% 1.7% Slovenia 32.666 0.500 65.38 33.285 0.514 64.73 1.9% 2.9% -1.0% 2.1% 1.9% Spain Can. 89.174 1.528 58.36 89.349 1.531 58.36 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.0% Romania Spain Con. 640.622 8.936 71.69 646.500 9.018 71.69 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 1.0% Sw eden 207.858 3.303 62.93 210.717 3.341 63.07 1.4% 1.2% 0.2% 2.4% 2.1% Sw itzerland 152.960 1.470 104.05 155.320 1.491 104.20 1.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% United Kingdom 960.333 10.435 92.03 862.409 10.583 81.49 -10.2% 1.4% -11.5% 1.9% 2.0% Albania (Full Costs) 23.765 0.522 45.52 22.895 0.461 49.63 -3.7% -11.6% 9.0% 2.9% 2.3% Armenia (Full Costs) 5.206 0.135 38.56 2.532 0.065 38.96 -51.4% -51.9% 1.0% 4.0% 3.4% 74.603 2.018 36.97 74.438 2.173 34.26 -7.3% 4.2% 3.3% Serbia/Montenegro/KFOR (Full Costs) -0.2% 7.7% Bosnia-Herz. (Full Costs) 38.361 0.918 41.79 39.349 0.919 42.84 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 1.1% 1.1% FYROM (Full Costs) 14.740 0.282 52.27 14.341 0.274 52.30 -2.7% -2.8% 0.1% 1.8% 1.6% Georgia (Full Costs) 19.929 0.841 23.71 19.268 0.838 22.99 -3.3% -0.3% -3.0% 5.6% 5.6% 4.565 0.077 59.28 3.955 0.066 59.92 -13.4% -14.3% 1.1% 11.9% 6.6% 384.068 15.003 25.60 437.370 15.352 28.49 13.9% 2.3% 11.3% 6.6% 6.0% 2016 Charging Zones 7,790 138.4 56.30 7,745 140.8 55.00 -0.6% 1.8% -2.3% 1.7% 1.8% Determined Costs 7,225 118.6 60.93 7,131 120.7 59.09 -1.3% 1.8% -3.0% 0.0% 1.4% 565 19.8 28.55 614 20.1 30.48 8.7% 1.8% 6.8% 6.7% 6.1% Moldova (Full Costs) (*) Turkey (Full Costs) Full Cost Recovery (*) For Moldova the unit rate show n is the revised unit rate. The applicable unit rate w as 59.37 euro (inc.adm.unit rate) Table 3: Comparison between 2016 and 2017 forecast charges, total service units and unit rates The forecast national charges (billed plus exempted) and the unit rates, both expressed in national currencies, show contrasted variations between 2017 and 2016 across the 38 charging zones. In the year 2017 the unit rate of the ten States (Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Portugal Santa Maria, Romania, United Kingdom, Serbia Montenegro and Georgia) show decrease more than 2%. The forecast of national charges is slightly decreased in 2017 and forecasted traffic is increasing by 1.8% in 2017, resulting in a unit rate decrease of 2.3% in nominal terms, with an inflation estimated at 1.8%: 5 - For States applying the determined cost method (30 charging zones representing 92% of the charges and 86% of the traffic in 2017), the average unit rate is decreasing by 3% in nominal terms with an inflation estimated at 1.4%. - For States applying the full cost method (8 charging zones representing 8% of the charges and 14% of the traffic in 2017), the average unit rate is increasing by 6.8% in nominal terms with an inflation estimated at 6.1%. Turkey represents the biggest part of the full cost recovery States (71% of total) and calculates its costs in national currency since 2015. The increase in costs and unit rates of Turkey should be also taken into account in the evaluation of all full costs recovery States. 3 (b) Exchange Rate Variations Table 4 shows the variations in exchange rates between September 2015 (exchange rates used to establish the 2016 basic rates approved in November 2015) and April 2016 (exchange rates used to establish the 2017 basic rates –preliminary figures): - The exchange rates in three charging zones appreciated by more than 1%. Everything else being equal, higher amounts in euro should be billed in 2016 as compared to the November 2015 forecasts (basic rates for 2016). For example the adjusted unit rate of Turkey (€ 25.60) by the April 2016 exchange rate is higher than the basic 2016 unit rate € 24.25 which was calculated by the September 2015. This increase is due to the appreciation of the exchange rate. - The exchange rates in three charging zones depreciated by more than 1%. Everything else being equal, lower amounts in euro should be billed in 2016 as compared to the November 2015 forecasts (basic rates for 2016). For example the adjusted unit rate of (United Kingdom € 92.03) by the April 2016 exchange rate is lower than the basic 2016 unit rate of United Kingdom € 99.50 which was calculated by the September 2015 exchange rate. This decrease is due to the depreciation of the exchange rate. Charging Zones Turkey 2015-09 3.38865 2016-04 3.21095 % 6% Georgia 2.65212 2.53519 5% Sw eden 9.39358 9.20672 2% Hungary 312.836 311.019 1% Croatia 7.58635 7.49219 1% 139.014 137.948 1% Albania United Kingdom 0.732573 0.791981 -8% Poland 4.21676 4.31062 -2% Serbia -Montenegro -KFOR 120.033 122.695 -2% Moldova 21.9768 22.2129 -1% Armenia 538.070 543.498 -1% Romania 4.41907 4.46909 -1% Norw ay 9.30386 9.31237 0% Bosnia-Herz. 1.94805 1.95635 0% Denmark 7.45944 7.44164 0% Czech Republic 27.0743 27.0094 0% Sw itzerland 1.09162 1.09269 0% FYROM 61.3136 61.4138 0% Bulgaria 1.95520 1.95544 0% Table 4: Exchange rates of September 2015 and April 2016 4. Calculation of 2017 Unit Rates – Traffic and Adjustments 4.1. Overview - Traffic RP1 – (2012 -2014) and RP2 (2015-2019) During RP1 Period the total actual traffic of the charging zones applying the determined costs method was average 4.9% below the determined service units. The following Table 5 shows the actual and determined service units in the RP1 period. The Chart 3 presents, actual and determined service units during the RP1 period (2012-2014) and RP2 (2015-2019) with the comparison by the STATFOR February Forecast for determined costs States. 6 Total Service Units RP1 Tota l Determi ned TSU Tota l Actua l TSU Actua l /Determi ned % 2012 2013 2014 111,682 106,652 -4.5% 114,884 108,452 -5.6% 118,499 113,213 -4.5% Table 5: Total Service Units in RP1 and RP2 50.0 70.0 90.0 110.0 130.0 150.0 2012 2013 2014 TSU Determined SU (Determined Costs States) 2015 TSU Actual (Determined Costs States) 2016 STATFOR February 2016 Forecast 2017 RP2 Period 2018 2019 Chart 3: Total Service Units –RP1-Comparison States Forecast-Actual Determined/Forecast and Actual Service Units in 2015 In general the determined service units of the States for the RP2 (2015-2019) are below the STATFOR Service Unit Forecast dated February 2016 (Chart 3). In the first actual year of the RP2, in 2015, the total traffic of the charging zones applying the determined costs method was 2% above the determined service units. - For twelve charging zones (Belgium Luxembourg, Germany, France, Switzerland, Portugal, Austria, Spain Continental, Norway, Denmark, Croatia, Lithuania and Latvia) the difference is between 2% and 0%; - For five charging zones (Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, Portugal Santa Maria, Hungary) the difference is between 10% and 2%; - For five charging zones (Greece, Malta, Cyprus, Romania and Bulgaria) the actual traffic is more than 10% above the determined service units. In 2015 the actual traffic fallen below the determined service units for eight charging zones only, i.e. United Kingdom, Spain Canary Islands, Italy, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Finland and Poland. 2015 Actual/Determined - Actual TSU 40% 30% 20% 10% EB ED LF EG EH EI LS LP LO LE GC AZ LG LM LI LC LH EN EK LJ LR LK ES LZ LD LB EF EY EP EV 0% -10% -20% Chart 4. a: Comparison between 2015 actual/ determined total service units 7 Full Cost Recovery States In 2015 the total traffic of the charging zones applying the full cost recovery method was 8% above the forecast service units used to calculate the 2015 unit rates. The service units of Moldova showed a huge decrease (43%) in 2015. The figures are shown on Chart 4 for the 2012-2015 period. 30% 20% 10% 2012 0% -10% LA UD LY LQ LW LU LT UG 2013 2014 -20% 2015 -30% -40% -50% Table 4.b: Comparison between 2015 actual/ forecast total service units 4.2. Overview - Adjustments Table 6 on the next page shows the carry-overs and bonuses or penalties as well as the revenues taken into account for the calculation of the 2017 unit rates. Part of the adjustments relate to 2015, which is the first actual year of Reporting Period 2 for the States applying the determined costs method. National currency amounts have been converted into euro at April 2016 exchange rates. 8 Charging Zones National For./Det. Costs 2017 Carryovers Bonus or penalty Other revenues 2017 1 2 3 Grand Total 2017 Service Units 2017 National Unit Rates Unit Cost 1/5 Unit Cost (2+3)/5 4 5 6 7 8 Austria 204,696 2,525 0 207,221 2,850 72.71 71.82 0.89 Belg.-Luxembourg 177,261 -2,909 -191 174,161 2,580 67.50 68.71 -1.20 Bulgaria 91,052 -17,921 -1,753 71,378 2,903 24.59 31.36 -6.78 Croatia 92,288 1,483 -10,343 83,429 1,808 46.14 51.04 -4.90 Cyprus 55,917 -6,343 0 49,573 1,457 34.02 38.37 -4.35 115,739 -1,588 0 114,151 2,717 42.01 42.60 -0.58 -1.74 Czech Republic Denmark 98,901 -686 -2,077 96,138 1,589 60.50 62.24 Finland 46,064 1,356 -919 46,501 827 56.23 55.70 0.53 France 1,328,677 -26,871 0 1,301,806 19,300 67.45 68.84 -1.39 Germany 1,036,419 -23,296 0 1,013,123 13,122 77.21 78.98 -1.78 155,318 -23,404 0 131,914 4,405 29.95 35.26 -5.31 Hungary 95,277 -6,875 -3,497 84,906 2,414 35.17 39.47 -4.30 Ireland 125,595 -3,898 0 121,697 4,113 29.59 30.53 -0.95 Italy 711,992 24,578 0 736,570 9,207 80.00 77.33 2.67 Latvia 23,902 -678 -195 23,030 844 27.29 28.32 -1.03 Lithuania 24,187 -693 -328 23,166 525 44.14 46.08 -1.95 Malta 20,695 -4,161 0 16,534 634 26.08 32.64 -6.56 Netherlands 187,392 1,803 -332 188,863 2,846 66.37 65.85 0.52 Norway 112,883 -70 0 112,813 2,439 46.25 46.28 -0.03 Poland 165,538 904 -2,707 163,735 4,699 34.84 35.23 -0.38 Portugal Lisboa 121,117 4,510 -375 125,252 3,122 40.12 38.79 1.32 46,010 -2,121 -54 43,835 4,388 9.99 10.49 -0.50 Romania 160,807 -19,699 -246 140,861 4,219 33.39 38.11 -4.73 Slovakia 62,981 -668 0 62,313 1,186 52.54 53.10 -0.56 Slovenia 33,870 -583 33,287 514 64.73 65.87 -1.13 Spain Can. 99,004 3,867 -13,521 89,349 1,531 58.36 64.67 -6.31 Spain Con. 622,241 59,936 -35,677 646,500 9,018 71.69 69.00 2.69 Sweden 214,008 -2,773 -504 210,731 3,341 63.07 64.06 -0.98 Switzerland 144,507 10,818 0 155,325 1,491 104.20 96.95 7.26 United Kingdom 871,238 -8,762 0 862,476 10,583 81.49 82.32 -0.83 Albania * 22,574 221 0 22,795 459 49.63 49.15 0.48 Armenia * 2,530 0 0 2,530 65 38.96 38.96 0.00 Serbia/Montenegro/KFOR * 80,966 -5,658 -954 74,354 2,171 34.26 37.30 -3.05 Bosnia Herzegovina * 39,472 -145 0 39,327 918 42.84 43.00 -0.16 FYROM * 14,332 -1 0 14,331 274 52.30 52.31 0.00 3,733 221 0 3,955 66 59.92 56.57 3.35 Turkey * 489,045 -54,621 0 434,423 15,250 28.49 32.07 -3.58 Georgia 20,556 -1,357 0 19,199 835 22.99 24.61 -1.62 7,245,576 -42,219 -72,719 7,130,638 120,672 59.09 60.04 -0.95 100% -0.6% -1.0% 98.4% 673,207 -61,340 -954 610,913 20,038 30.49 33.60 -0.05 100% 9.1% -0.1% 90.7% 7,918,783 100% -103,559 -1.3% -73,673 -0.9% 7,741,552 97.8% 140,710 55.02 56.28 -1.26 Greece Portugal Santa Maria Moldova * Determined Costs Full Costs * All charging zones * Full FosP MePOod : reduced forecMsP cosPs (excluding exempPions ) - cOMrgeMNle service uniPs Table 6 – Overview of the 2017 unit rate calculation In 2016, carryovers and bonuses/penalties represent 0.6 % of the determined costs for the States applying the determined costs method and 9.1% of the forecast costs for the States applying the full cost recovery method. Revenues and other amounts deducted to calculate the applied unit rates represent on average 0.9% (0.1% accounting for one non-EU States only). 4.3. Detail of adjustments and carry-overs including other revenues in 2017 unit rates Table 6.1 details the carry-overs and bonuses/penalties as shown in Column 2 of Table 7. For States applying the determined cost method, references are the row numbers in Reporting Table 2. 9 Charging Zones Austria BelgB-IuxemNourg Bulgaria 1.4 Inflation adjus. 3.3 and 4.3 Traffic 3.4 and 3.5 Traffic risk 1 2 3 Cost exempt 3.7 Bonus or 3.8 and 4.6 from risk penalty carryovers sharing 4 5 6 Total Total adj./National Costs 7 8 -1,666 -663 4,710 0 143 0 2,525 1% -859 -140 0 0 -757 -1,154 -2,909 -2% -20% -2,732 -1,789 -13,400 0 0 0 -17,921 Croatia 46 -186 0 0 0 1,623 1,483 2% Cyprus -2,366 -1,521 -2,456 0 0 0 -6,343 -11% Czech RepuNlic -1,975B95 79 0 201 108 0 -1,588 -1% -2,672 -344 2,123 0 206 0 -686 -1% Finland -993 334 963 680 372 0 1,356 3% France -258 -1,800 0 -9,929 -2,431 -12,453 -26,871 -2% Denmark Germany Greece -13,259 -1,368 0 0 -369 -8,299 -23,296 -2% -3,543 -5,046 -14,816 0 0 0 -23,404 -15% Hungary -1,493 -995 -4,387 0 0 0 -6,875 -7% Ireland -1,633 -819 -1,801 -868 1,223 0 -3,898 -3% Italy -6,231 7,339 9,412 0 9,406 4,651 24,578 3% Iatvia -678 1 0 0 0 0 -678 -3% Iithuania -708 -7 0 0 21 0 -693 -3% Malta -122 625 -4,734 71 0 0 -4,161 -20% -1,465 -794 -1,221 3,640 -157 1,800 1,803 1% 1 -71 0 0 0 0 -70 0% Poland -6,573 1,082 9,057 0 0 -2,662 904 1% Portugal IisNoa -1,758 -391 0 6,658 0 0 4,510 4% -672 -886 -1,756 1,192 0 0 -2,121 -5% Romania -7,259 -1,604 -12,968 2,132 0 0 -19,699 -12% Slovakia -198 43 0 -365 0 -148 -668 -1% Slovenia -998 145 231 0 40 0 -583 -2% Spain CanB -1,861 0 2,876 163 0 2,689 3,867 4% Spain ConB -11,721 944 30,048 2,996 0 37,669 59,936 10% -2,316 -1,033 -1,283 1,395 464 0 -2,773 -1% 292 -52 0 0 0 10,577 10,818 7% United Kingdom -19,126 1,681 0 2,748 5,935 0 -8,762 -1% Determined Costs -94,795 -7,235 598 10,715 14,205 34,293 -42,219 Netherlands Norw ay Portugal Santa Maria Sw eden Sw itzerland -1% Table 6.1 – Detail of carry-overs and bonuses or penalties 4.4. Total adjustments and carry overs after the deduction of other revenues (2012-2019) The following Table 6.2 shows the total adjustments and the other revenues of each State applying determined costs methodology during the period 2012-2019. The carry overs of the adjustments, bonus and penalties and other revenues which were presented in the Table 2 of the reporting tables have been used and converted into euro based on the April 2016 exchange rates. The 2012 amounts refer to the under/over recoveries coming from the application of the full costs recovery method. 10 Total Adjustments after the Deduction of the hther wevenues Charging Zones 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Austria 4,961 3,968 19,853 9,273 9,539 2,525 4,710 6,670 Belg.-Luxem bourg 1,254 -9,725 2,794 -578 -8,620 -3,100 -598 -585 -10,167 -11,623 -7,543 -4,148 -28,146 -19,674 -1,753 -27 -6,842 -6,309 -8,860 921 606 Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic 1,351 788 712 -1,214 -5,736 -6,343 0 0 -3,884 -2,095 439 -145 -999 -1,588 201 201 8,387 9,373 7,375 642 -235 -2,763 1,141 804 Finland -827 -1,191 1,845 -486 63 437 1,078 1,949 France -26,553 -21,778 9,832 3,449 -1,421 -26,871 -9,929 -9,929 Germ any -13,447 20,836 42,877 60,172 38,822 -23,296 0 0 0 0 8,674 14,599 4,326 -23,404 0 0 818 -4,333 -2,365 -1,987 -10,965 -10,371 -4,062 -3,330 Denm ark Greece Hungary Ireland -3,275 -9,344 1,016 364 -1,251 -3,898 0 0 Italy 28,002 36,905 48,049 14,128 16,445 24,578 43,931 37,683 Latvia -206 -348 -467 -558 -616 -872 0 0 Lithuania -996 -1,273 -1,557 -331 -507 -1,021 -328 -328 0 3,113 1,127 -4,138 -3,065 -4,161 4 0 Netherlands 10,421 10,785 12,525 1,877 5,219 1,471 29 -1,494 Norw ay -3,347 -12,854 -10,677 -3,237 -13,904 -70 0 0 Poland -4,024 -12,498 -10,688 -7,148 -6,118 -1,803 -5,042 -4,679 Portugal Lisboa -9,482 -6,380 5,922 3,599 6,771 4,135 6,284 6,284 Portugal Santa Maria -2,002 -5,627 2,188 1,502 2,280 -2,175 1,138 1,138 Rom ania 109 -4,376 -6,779 -6,710 -7,865 -19,946 -246 -246 Slovakia 508 -148 949 4 -2,750 -668 -513 -513 Slovenia -519 -2,272 -108 820 -504 -583 0 0 Spain Can. -11,645 -9,889 -6,613 -9,179 -9,577 -9,655 -8,796 -8,277 Spain Con. -23,769 -27,588 -12,412 16,164 18,549 24,259 28,805 34,495 8,380 11,485 7,296 3,495 -6,586 -3,277 1,395 1,395 Sw itzerland 14,863 15,363 18,242 13,396 9,979 10,818 12,863 14,080 United Kingdom 40,806 64,133 61,692 79,016 92,776 -8,762 2,761 2,769 Malta Sw eden 6,842,831 7,041,595 7,157,732 7,101,588 7,157,418 7,245,576 7,321,246 7,347,694 Total Determ ined Costs Total Adjustm ents including other rev. 5,715 33,407 194,197 175,798 89,595 -114,937 73,994 78,665 % Adjustm ents in Total 0.1% 0.5% 2.7% 2.5% 1.3% -1.6% 1.0% 1.1% Table 6.2 – Total adjustments after the deduction of other revenues 5. Evolution and the variation of consolidated national costs 2012-2019 and adjustments including other revenues Table 7 (a) and (b) consolidate the determined/forecast national costs and actual costs presented by Member States at the 106th Session of the enlarged Committee: - National costs comprise costs in respect of Air Navigation Service Providers, Meteorological Service Providers as well as States (including EUROCONTROL) costs ; - Costs are gross costs for the year, prior to deductions in respect of exempted flights or other income and without amounts carried over; - All costs have been converted into euro based on the April 2016 exchange rates. Yearly variations at national level are therefore the same as the national costs expressed in national currency. - The determined/forecast and actual total service units are presented on the Table. 11 Determined costs - Perf. Plan RP1 &RP2 All Charging Zones (Determined) Cost details 1. 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Actual costs RP1&RP2 2018 2019 2012 Detail by nature (in nominal terms) Sta ff 3,957 4,074 4,147 4,164 4,192 4,248 4,292 4,330 Other opera ti ng cos ts 1,657 1,664 1,691 1,649 1,678 1,702 1,717 1,730 Depreci a ti on 867 934 958 886 918 943 942 928 Cos t of ca pi ta l 378 389 387 390 392 396 389 385 12 -23 -21 -19 -25 -24 Excepti ona l i tems -16 -19 Tota l cos ts 6,843 7,042 7,158 7,102 7,157 7,268 7,321 7,348 2.9% 1.6% -0.8% 0.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% Variations (Actual-Determined) All Charging Zones (Determined) Cost details 1. 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2012 2013 Detail by nature (in nominal terms) Sta ff -11 Other opera ti ng cos ts -101 Depreci a ti on -55 Cos t of ca pi ta l -3 Excepti ona l i tems 16 Tota l cos ts -153 2014 -184 -104 -98 -33 48 -371 2015 2014 2015 3,946 3,890 3,896 4,103 1,556 1,560 1,575 1,560 813 836 851 844 375 356 375 383 0 29 -16 15 6,689 6,671 6,680 6,905 -0.3% 0.1% 3.4% Variations (Actual/Determined) % Total Total 2012 -62 -507 -89 -409 -42 -302 -7 -54 3 74 -197 -1,199 -251 -116 -107 -12 8 -478 2013 2013 2014 2015 -0.3% -4.5% -6.0% -6.1% -6.3% -6.8% -6.3% -10.5% -11.1% -0.8% -8.4% -3.1% -1.5% -5.4% -4.8% -1.7% -2.2% -2.8% -5.3% -6.7% Table 7 (a) - Consolidated National Costs and variations (determined costs States) The Table 7 (a) shows the variations between the actual and determined costs during the RP1 and in the year 2015 which is first actual year of RP2. It shows that in the RP1 period the determined costs and service units were established higher than the actual costs and service units. In the 2015 unit rate this picture changed positively for the traffic and in the year 2015 the traffic were higher than the determined service units while the total actual costs were 2.8% lower than the determined costs. Full Costs Recovery States (Actual/Forecast 2012-2015) Cost details 1. 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2012 Detail by nature (in nominal terms) Sta ff 201 Other opera ti ng cos ts 157 Depreci a ti on 53 Cos t of ca pi ta l 49 Excepti ona l i tems 0 Tota l cos ts 460 5.4 Tota l Servi ce Uni ts Tota l % n/n-1 14 2013 Cost details 2014 2015 2016 214 163 56 49 0 483 5.1% 237 174 60 47 0 519 7.3% 14 2.3% 17 15 20 7.0% 14.0% 13.8% All Charging Zones (Full Costs) 1. 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Actual costs Planned Costs All Charging Zones (Full Costs) 230 274 181 224 83 77 52 48 0 0 546 623 5.3% 14.1% 2017 Detail by nature (in nominal terms) Sta ff -1 Other opera ti ng cos ts 1 Depreci a ti on -4 Cos t of ca pi ta l -3 Excepti ona l i tems 0 Tota l cos ts -8 2013 -7 -2 -4 -6 0 -18 2014 -16 1 4 0 0 -11 2019 296 347 404 248 288 317 85 99 115 53 63 75 0 0 0 683 797 910 9.5% 16.7% 14.2% 20 22 1.8% 10.5% Variations (Actual-Forecast) 2012 2018 2015 -2 9 -15 -9 0 -18 Total Total -26 9 -19 -19 0 -55 24 7.6% 2012 200 158 49 45 0 452 13 2013 2014 208 162 52 44 0 466 3.0% 2015 221 176 64 47 0 508 9.0% 227 191 67 43 0 529 4.1% 14 17 5.8% 22.4% 19 9.9% Variations (Actual/Forecast) % 2012 2013 2014 2015 -0.4% -3.2% 0.4% -1.1% -8.0% -6.3% -7.0% -11.4% -6.8% -1.1% 0.7% 5.2% 6.4% -18.5% -0.6% -17.8% -1.7% -2.2% -3.7% -3.2% Table 7 (b) - Consolidated National Costs and variations (Full costs States) 12 Table 7 (b) shows the same variations for the States applying full costs recovery methodology. The planned costs refer to the national costs of the States presented at the November Sessions of the Enlarged Committee to calculate N+1 unit rates. It shows that that while the costs were estimated higher than the actual costs, the traffic increased significantly especially in 2014 and 2015. The individual tables of the States are presented in Annex 1. 6. June 2016 reporting exercise Almost all States met the reporting deadline. New Reporting Tables templates with automatic checks for determined costs States have been used and all the States have successfully transferred the data via Common Portal. The States and the Users Associations have received the published reporting tables at the same time. 7. Annexes Annex 1 shows the total determined/forecast national costs and the service units and the variations of each State. The costs are presented in Millions and the TSU figures are in thousands. Annex 2 shows the determined costs, forecast total service units, forecast chargeable costs and unit rates of each State for the 2012-2019 period. All the costs data and the unit rates have been converted by the April exchange rates to see the variations during the period. The charts show these variations for these items. The maps at Annex 3 present the unit rates, and service units. 13
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