Sunflowerseeds market in Russia: season 2015/16
Trade and Trends
Gritsai Anton, EFKO Group
Russia
EFKO-Trade LLC grain & oil
export/import tel./fax:
+7(863)300-11-39/40/38
[email protected]
www.efko.ru
EFKO Group: outlook
Обзор деятельности ГК ЭФКО
Results of 2014: outlook
EFKO’s Infrastructure, 2015
The largest holding in Eurasian Economic Community oils and fats market
Belgorod
Industrial
fats– 471 tsnd.tons
Oilseeds crush
– 747 tsnd.tons
Voronezh
Taman
Mayonnaise –
123 tsnd.tons
Export of packaged
sunoil –17 tsnd.tons
Export of crude
sunoil in bulk
– 209 tsnd.tons
Ketchup – 9 tsnd.tons
Yoghurt
R&D
Rostov-on-Don
Saratov
Krasnodar
Interior silos
Oilseed crushing plants
Three oilseed crushing plants have total crushing capacity 1,5 mln.tn per year
Oil production – 0,5 mln.mts per year
Meal production – 0,8 mln.mts per year
More than 10 thousand employees
10interior silos with total capacity of 1 million tons of grain
Vertically integrated business model
2
EFKO Group in EEC Market*
Группа ЭФКО на рынке ЕАЭС*
Market of packaged sunflower oil
Industrial fats market
#1
6%
EFKO
NMZHK + DW
20%
#2
10%
35%
5%
32%
8%
SolPro
4%
Cargill
Soyuz
3%
Others
25%
EFKO
15% 3%
12%
4%
3%
29%
5%
EFC
SolPro
Cargill
Bunge
Aston
Others
6%
#3
Essen production
14%
Yug Rusi
Export of sunoil
Market of mayonnaise
15%
9%
36%
#1-2
2%
EFKO
15%
23%
Unilever
NMZHK
12%
SolPro
KZHK
Rusagro
11%
25%
6%
8%
EFKO
Yug Rusi
Aston
SolPro
Artis
Rusagro
Others
Others
EFC
____________________
*Евразийский Экономический Союз
Eurasian Economic Union
3
Sunflowerseeds supply and demand in Russia: forecast for 2015/16
Прогноз баланса семян подсолнечника в России в сезоне 2015/16
Opening stocks
Production (clean weight)
Import
Export
Crush
Other use
Ending stocks
Supply to demand ratio, %
2013/14
2014/2015
2015/2016 (forecast)
, tsnd mts
,%
85
213
52
-161
-75,59%
9 822
8 727
9114
387
35
96
100
4
4,43%
4,17%
-48,72%
109
39
20
-19
9 320
8 795
8 966
171
1,94%
300
150
200
50
33,33%
213
52
80
28
53,85%
102,19%
100,58%
100,87%
250
102,50%
200
102,00%
150
101,50%
101,00%
100
100,50%
50
0
100,00%
2013/14
2014/2015
Ending Stocks
2015/2016 (forecast)
99,50%
Supply to demand ratio, %
Russian sunflowerseeds and rapeseeds crop in 2015/16
Russian Federation
Central FD
Southern FD
Volga Region
North Caucasian FD
Others FD
SFS gross crop
9 794
2 682
2 715
3 467
312
618
RS gross crop
1 150
308
52
193
79
519
Total
10 944
2 990
2 767
3 660
391
1 137
4
Sunflower seed oil supply and demand in Russia: forecast for 2015/16
Прогноз баланса подсолнечного масла в России в сезоне 2015/16
Opening stocks
Production
Import
Export (crude sunoil)
Domestic consumption
Ending stocks
Supply to demand ratio, %
2013/14
2014/2015
2015/2016 (forecast)
, tsnd mts
215
3 961
10
1 435
2 612
139
103,43%
139
3 739
1
1046
2 632
201
105,46%
201
3 855
1
1 260
2 625
172
104,43%
62
116
0
214
-2
-29
,%
45%
3%
0%
17%
0%
-14%
106,00%
250
200
105,00%
150
104,00%
100
50
103,00%
0
102,00%
2013/2014
2014/2015
Ending stocks
2015/16 (forecast)
Supply to demand ratio, %
5
Russian oilseeds crush capacity utilization
Загруженность мощностей по переработке масличных культур в РФ
83%
тыс. т
16 000
69%
13 800
14 000
12 000
91%
13 800
77%
11 200 – gross harvest
14 500
13 800
tsnd tons.
12 500
11 400
sunflowerseed
11 200
10 000
of oilseeds in Russia,
rapeseed
9 500
linseed
8 000
6 000
9 697
4 000
others
10 554
Oilseeds crush capacity in Russia,
9 034
7 993
tsnd tons
2 000
77% - oilseeds crush capacity utilization
0
11/12 МГ
12/13 МГ
13/14 МГ
14/15 МГ
Forecast of sunflower and rapeseed gross harvest allocation in Federal Districts of Russia in
2015/16.
Forecast of capacity allocation in Federal Districts of Russia in 2015/16
Sunflowerseed
North-Western FD
2%
Siberian FD
Ural FD
OTHERS 1%
0,5%
4%
in Russia
Rapeseed
УФО 1%
Siberian FD 4%
OTHERS
North-W FD 9%
Southern FD11%
Central FD 27%
Volga FD
20%
Ural FD 12%
Southern FD
16 100
tsnd.tons
Central FD
31%
43%
Southern FD
31%
9 794
11 000
tsnd.tons
1 150
Volga FD 17%
Siberian FD 23%
Central FD 27%
Volga FD 35%
6
Обеспеченность переработчиков подсолнечником в 2015/2016 МГ
в разрезе федеральных округов РФ
Sunflowerseeds crush capacity utilization in the crop year 2015/2016, regional statistics
New crushing capacities to launch in 2015/16
Capacities, tsnd mts
Russian Federation
4 942
56%
Volga Region
88%
120 000
Southern FD
Volgograd Region
Cargill’s ‘Novoanninskiy’ Plant
640 000
Volga FD
Orenburg region
Sorochinskiy Plant
480 000
Southern
Region
640 000
384 000
Samara region
Yakushinskoe Oil LLC
2 770
6 877
384 000
Tambov Region
Maksimovskiy Plant
Central Region
3 157
504 000
Central FD
Lipetsk region
Terbuny
North-Western
Region
2 754
1 624 000
96 000
Oilseeds crush capacity, tsnd. mts
47%
Sunflowerseeds crush capacity utilization, tsnd. mts
3 203
Мо
56%
Sunflowerseeds crush capacity utilization, %
7
Top-10 Russian crude sunflower seed oil exporters
Рейтинг экспортеров подсолнечного масла из России
1 Aston
2 Yug Rusi
3 EFKO
2013/14
%
2014/15
%
270776
18,8%
242031
23,1%
4,70%
239843
16,70%
158069
15,1%
-1,26%
300000
18,8%
244718
17,1%
123230
11,8%
-4,96%
119925
8,4%
117737
11,3%
3,10%
200000
126441
124708
8,8%
8,7%
79445
61195
7,6%
5,9%
-1,04%
-2,68%
150000
59452
4,1%
47274
4,5%
0,47%
8 NMZHK
71539
5%
40222
3,8%
-1,04%
10 Sodruzhestvo
73146
32923
5,1%
2,3%
36478
27408
3,3%
2,6%
-1,52%
0,38%
Others
71258
5%
104237
10%
3,85%
1 434 729
100%
1 046 326
100%
17.1%
23,1%
4 SolPro
5 Artis
6 Rusagro
7 Glencore
9 Kernel
16,7%
250000
15,1%
11,8%
100000
8,8%
8,4%
8,7%
10%
11,3%
5%
7,6%
50000
5,9%
4,1%
4,5%
5%
5.1%
3,8%
3,3%
2,3% 2,6%
0
Aston
Yug Rusi
EFKO
SolPro
Artis
Rusagro
2013/14
Glencore
2014/15
NMZHK
Kernel
Sodruzhestvo Others
Total Russian SFO export in 2013/14 and 2014/15
Совокупный экспорт подсолнечного масла из России в 2013/14 и 2014/15
200 000
180 000
160 000
140 000
120 000
100 000
80 000
60 000
40 000
20 000
0
September
October
November
December
January
February
2014/15
March
April
May
June
July
August
2013/14
Source: custom and port statistics
8
Топ-10 импортеров подсолнечного масла из России
Top-10 importers of Russian crude sunflowerseed oil
Crop 2013-14 – Custom statistics
Country
1 Turkey
2 Egypt
3 EU
4 Iran
5 Saudi Arabia + UAE
6 Kazakhstan
7 Azerbaijan
8 Sudan
9 Lebanon
10 Morocco
Total:
Turkey
Quantity, thous. mts
528
425
88
53
43
39
30
28
11
8
1 253
86% of the total Russian
%
42%
34%
7%
Egypt
export
3%
4%
2%
3%
1% 2% 1%
EU
Iran
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
Saudi Arabia / UAE
7%
42%
Kazakhstan
Aserbaijan
100%
Sudan
34%
Lebanon
Morocco
Crop 2014-15 – Custom and port statistics
Country
1 Turkey
2 Egypt
3 Kazakhstan
4 Sudan
5 Azerbaijan
6 Saudi Arabia
7 Iran
8 China
9 Tajikistan
10 Oman
Total:
Quantity, thous. mts
%
573
136
61
51
35
35
33
21
7
6
60%
14%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
1%
1%
958
100%
91,6% of the total Russian
export
1%
1%
3% 2%
Turkey
Egypt
Kazakhstan
Sudan
Azerbaijan
Saudi Arabia
Iran
China
Tajikistan
Oman
4%
4%
5%
6%
14%
60%
9
Ставки импортных и экспортных пошлин на семена масличных
Russian oilseeds: import and export taxation rates
Изменение уровня ставок импортных и экспортных пошлин в соответствии с
обязательствами России при присоединении к ВТО
Russian oilseeds export taxes reduction according to WTO trading rules
On the agreement date
As from 01.09.2013,
As from 01.09.2014,
As from 01.09.2015,
As from 01.09.2016, end
(August, 2012)
transition period
transition period
transition period
of transition period
Soya beans
20
13,33
6,67
0
0
Rape seeds
20
15
11
9
6,5
Sunflower seeds
20
16,62
13,24
9,88
6,5
10
10
Conclusions
Sunflowerseeds crop forecast in the crop year 2015-16 is 9.1 mln mts (+387 tsnd mts vs 2014/15)
Despite sunflowerseeds export tax reduction down to 9.88% we do not expect the seeds export to pick up due to a deficit of domestic crush capacity utilization
resulting in higher domestic prices vs export prices
Crude sunflowerseed oil output forecast in the crop year 2015-16 is 3,8 mln mts (+ 116 tsnd mts vs 2014/15)
Crude sunflowerseed oil export forecast in the crop year 2015-16 is 1260 mln mts (+214 tsnd mts vs 2014/15)
Russian domestic sunflowerseeds crush capacity utilization remains deficit as crop rise will not offset the increase of the crush capacity (387 thous. mts vs 1.6 mln
mts). Domestic sunflowerseeds origination competition remains tough and stimulate higher domestic prices
Turkey, Egypt and Arab countries will remain importers of Russian sunflowerseed oil
11
Thank you for your attention
EFKO-Trade LLC grain & oil export/import
tel./fax: +7(863)300-11-39/40/38
[email protected]
www.efko.ru
12