Understanding of Climate Variability
and Change in East Africa
‘ Great Ruaha River sub basin in
Tanzania’
(CLIVET PROJECT-DANIDA)
PhD student: Sarah Emerald Osima -TMA
Registered: University of Cape Town
WORK PROGRESS
WORK PROGRESS
•Within the process I learnt how to use analytical
tools for climate data analysis.(R , Ferret, Grads and
Climate Data Operator(CDO)
• Made a research paper presentation in the World
Climate Research Program conference, held in
Colorado – Denver USA (22-28 October 2011) –
published on the website
•Oral paper presentation on Climate Variability and
change in East Africa : in the 10th International
Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
and Oceanography, was held in New Caledonia – 2327 April 2012 (published in the IOCSHMO report).
Timeline
Activities
Date of Event
1.Proposal presentation and 2010
submission
Status
Done
2. Data collection -field 2011 - 2012
research , data processing
of historical data
successful
3 Model data in place
Successful
2011-2012
4. Data analysis and writing 2012 continue
Already started in
good progress
DATA QUALITY
-CHALLENGE
Inadequate observation
stations
Insufficiency funds to
run the available stations
(incentives stations)
 inadequate modern
equipment : automatic
weather stations, radar ,
Data storage
telecommunication,
working facilities
computers ..etc
Inadequate
experts/hum.r resource
EXAMPLES OF RAINFALL
STATIONS VISITED RECENTLY
2011 DECEMBER
Station A Station B
Station C
RAINFALL SUMS _FOR 3 STNS
STN Code
Station name
Latitude
Longitude
Elevation [m] WMO CODE
9833001
Mbeya Met.
8
56
S
33
28
E
1758
9833001
9833025
Dodoma Met.
6
10
S
35
46
E
1120
9635001
9735013
Iringa Met.
7
38
S
35
46
E
1428
9735013
Rainfall sums (mm/m) HIRHAM5_A1B
Vs ERAI _DJFMA
(a) HIRH5_ERAI_1980
-1999
(d) HIRH5_A1B 44KM_1980
(b) ERA Interim( ERAI) 1980
-1999
(e) HIRH5_ERAI_1980
-1999
-1999
(c) HIRERA Vs ERAI 980
-1999
(f) HIRHAM5 Vs HIRERAI 980
-1999
Rainfall sums HIRHAM5_A1B Vs ERAI
_JJA
(a) ERAI PRE_ mm/month
(b) HIRHAM_44km PRE_ mm/month
(c) HIRHAM_10km PRE_ mm/month
Rainfall sums (mm/year).
(a) 90th P. ppt I980-1999 mm/day
(d) 90th P. ppt I980-1999 mm/day
(b) 90th P. ppt 2046-2065 mm/day
(e) 90th P. ppt 2046-2065 mm/day
(c) 90th P. ppt 2080-2099 mm/day
(f) 90th P. ppt 2080-2099 mm/day
Total precipitation change in HIRHAM5_A1B with
time in 44km Vs 10km resolution (mm/month)
(a) HIRH5_A1B44KM
_1980
-
(d) HIRH5_A1B44KM
_2046
-2065
(g) HIRH5_44KM2080
-2099
(b) HIRH5_A1B10KM
_1980
(e) HIRH5_A1B10KM
_2046
(h) HIRH5_10KM_2080
-1999
-2065
-2099
(c) HIRH5_10KMM
INUS44KMmm/m
onth
(f) HIRH5_10KMM
INUS44KMmm/m
onth
(i) HIRH5_10KMMINUS44KMmm/m
onth
Model projection
(a) Rainfall change Pre
-Nf at 10kmRes
(c) Rainfall change Pre
-Ft at 10kmRes
(b) Rainfall change Pre
(d) Rainfall change Pre
-Nf at 44kmRes
-Ft at 44kmRes
2Meter temperature HIRHAM_ERA Interim Vs
Observation (ERA Interim)
2Meter temperature HIRHAM_ERA Interim Vs
Observation (ERA Interim)
T2m_ HIRH5_ERAI
T2m_ HIRH5_ERAI
o
C DJFMA
o
C _ JJA
T2m_ ERAI
o
C DJFMA
T2m_ HIRH5_ERAI
o
C_ JJA
Time series HIRHAM5_A1B EAST
AFRICAN
EAST AFRICAN Domain:
lon=15.956W,52.056E;
2Meter temperature over East Africa Domain –
DJFMA
(a)T2m
o
(d)T2m
(g) T2m
o
o
C _ECHAM5
C HIRH5_A1B 44KM
C HIRH5_A1B 10KM
(b) T2m
(e) T2m
(h) T2m
o
C _ECHAM5
o
C HIRH5_A1B 44KM
o
C HIRH5_A1B 10KM
(c) T2m
o
(f) T2m
(i) T2m
o
o
C _ECHAM5
C HIRH5_A1B 44KM
C HIRH5_A1B 10KM
(a)T2m ECHAM5_NF Vs Pre oC
(e)T2m ECHAM5_Ft Vs Pre oC
(b)T2m HIRHAM5_NF Vs Pre oC_ 44km (c)T2m HIRHAM5_NF Vs Pre Oc _10km
(f)T2m HIRHAM5_Ft Vs Pre oC_ 44km
(f)T2m HIRHAM5_Ft Vs Pre oC _ 10km
2 Meter temperature over East Africa Domain –
DJFMA HIRH5_44km _Vs 10km res
(a) HIRH5_
o
A1B_44KMPre.
(d)HIRH5_A1B44KMNf.
(g) HIRH5_A1B44KMFt.
o
o
C
C
C
o
(b)HIRH5_A1B_10KMPre
(e)HIRH5_A1B10KMNf.
(h) HIRH5_A1B10KMFt
o
C
o
C
C
(c) HIRH5A1B_44KMMINUS_10KMPre
o
(f) HIRH5_A1B44KMMINUS10 KMNf.
(i) HIRH5_A1B_10KMMINUS44 KMFt
o
C
C
Percentiles of Maximum temperature over East
Africa Domain -DJFMA
2080-2099 Vs 1980-1999_44kmres
Seasonal changes in the Percentiles of Maximum
temperature over East Africa Domain 2046-2065
Vs 1980-1999
Way forward
•Why??
1: GLOBAL CIRCULATION
(a) WIND FLO W A T–700hPa Pre_ 10km
-
(b) WIND FLO W AT–700hPa Nf 10km
(c) WIND FLO W A T–700hPa Ft 10km
GLOBAL CIRCULATION
(a) Wind_700hPa Pre 44km
(e)T2m ECHAM5_Ft Vs Pre
(b) Wind_700hPa Near Future_ 44km
o
C
(e) Wind 700hPa Near Future _ 10km
Wind _700hPa _Future _44km
(f) Wind 700hPa Future _ 10km
Presentation at 10th
IOSCHMO
THANK YOU
Denver, Colorado 2011