Mitigation and equity: from
effort sharing to leveraging
the opportunity
19/05/2014
Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Content
> Equitable sharing of emission reductions
> Equitable sharing of costs for mitigation and
adaptation
> Focussing on the endpoint
> Conclusions
2
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Equitable sharing emission reductions
Source: IPCC AR4 WGIII
3
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Effort sharing principles and proposals
Responsibility
Equal
cumulative per
capita
emissions
Responsibility
capability
need
Staged
approaches
Equality
Capability
need
Cost effectiveness
Source: Höhne, Elzen, Escalante 2013: Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a
comparison of studies, climate policy
4
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Allowances in 2030 for 450 ppmCO2e
Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII Figure 6.28, based on Höhne et al. 2013
5
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Allowances in 2030 for 450 ppmCO2e
6
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Allowances in 2050
Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII Figure 6.29, based on Höhne et al. 2013
7
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Pledges against effort sharing principles
www.climateactiontracker.org
8
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
2020 pledges
9
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
2020 pledges
10
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Content
> Equitable sharing of emission reductions
> Equitable sharing of costs for mitigation and
adaptation
> Focussing on the endpoint
> Conclusions
11
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Cost sharing of mitigation and adaptation
Thought experiment:
- All mitigation and adaptation happens where it is the cheapest
- All costs are redistributed based on an equity principle (historical
responsibility and UN scale of assessments)
Costs for mitigation (M), adaptation (A)
International finance
and residual damage (RD)
flows
Least Developed countries
M:
A:
RD:
10
5
30
30 to 50 billion USD
Middle income regions
M:
A:
RD:
30
20
160
Emerging economies
M:
A:
RD:
70
10
50
140 to 190 billion USD
-10 to 40 billion USD
Total flows:
150 to 290
billion USD
Developed regions
M:
A:
RD:
50
20
130
-280 to -170 billion USD
All numbers in billion USD
Source: Analysis for the ACT 2015 project, steady scenario, for 2030, based on cost data from PBL FAIR/IMAGE/TIMER.
12
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Content
> Equitable sharing of emission reductions
> Equitable sharing of costs for mitigation and
adaptation
> Focussing on the endpoint
> Conclusions
13
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Focus on the endpoint, not on marginal changes
“Effort” is not defined
> Pure climate policy does not exist: will be mixed with green
growth, energy security, industry policy
> The concept of “reduction below BAU” does no longer
exist: all countries will have undertaken some action
> Positive spill-over effects: technologies developed in one
country will be applied in others (e.g. price drop in wind and PV)
-> Focus on “common endpoint”: An endpoint eventually
common for all countries (e.g. phasing out GHG emissions
broken by sector: zero emission electricity production,
20gCO2/km for cars, …). Allow differentiated speed to reach this
endpoint
Proposal to phase out of GHG emissions:
> Haites, Yamin & Höhne 2013: “Possible Elements of a 2015 Legal Agreement on Climate
Change”, Working Papers N°16/2013. Iddri, 2013. 24 p.
> Höhne et al. 2013, “Feasibility of GHG emissions phase-out by mid-century”, Ecofys
report
14
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Common endpoint per sector differentiated speed to reach it
Indicator, e.g. gCO2/km
Country A
Threshold
Country B
Country C
Time
Concept from Höhne et al. 2006. Common but differentiated convergence (CDC): a new
conceptual approach to long-term climate policy, Climate Policy 6 (2006) 181–199
15
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Content
> Equitable sharing of emission reductions
> Equitable sharing of costs for mitigation and
adaptation
> Focussing on the endpoint
> Conclusions
16
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Conclusions
Equitable sharing of emission reductions in 2030 for 450 ppmCO2. Average of a
huge range is very stringent:
> OECD1990: on the order of half of the emissions of 2010
> EIT roughly two-thirds of 2010 emissions
> ASIA group approximately at the 2010 emissions level or slightly below
> MAF would be slightly above the 2010 level
> LAM would be below the 2010 level
Possible elements on equity in a 2015 agreement (personal selection)
> Focus on common endpoint: Phase out
– Legally binding goal of global phase out of GHG emissions (by e.g. 2050)
– All countries define credible pathways towards phase out
– General agreement that all activities towards this goal receive priority financial
support
> Equitable sharing of finance
– Relative financial contributions to mitigation and adaptation are based on
responsibility and capability
– A full list of indicators is developed and updated, which serves as guidance
> Least developed countries receive support for all mitigation and adaptation costs
17
© ECOFYS | 19/05/2014 | Niklas Höhne, [email protected]