Wake County Planning Board
Demographic Trends 2014
www.wakegov.com
Presentation Sequence
I.
II.
III.
IV.
Population
Housing & Development
Economy
Education
Wake County is now the 46th largest county in the US, surpassing Westchester, NY
and Milwaukee County, WI in 2013
#1 Largest Population
Growth in NC since 2010: 44,150*
Wake
8.1% Growth
Mecklenburg
7.8% Growth
#2 Largest Municipal Population in NC (2012):
748,078 people within city limits*
NC Largest Municipalities*
#2 City of Raleigh
#7 Town of Cary
#22 Town of Apex
#28 Town of Wake Forest
#7 Fastest Growing County in US with population more than 500,000**
#46 Most Populous County in US (#85 in 2000)**
www.wakegov.com
Source: *NC Demographics 2012; **US Census Bureau 2012
www.wakegov.com
Source: NC Demographics Population Projection 2013
July 1, 2013 Census Estimates- Highlights
 2/3rds of the state population growth occurred in the 12 counties that
make up the Charlotte and Triangle regions
 Mecklenburg and Wake counties each have gained over 70,000 since
April 1, 2010, accounting for 45% of the state’s growth
 Only 3 rural counties have grown in the past three years (Duplin,
Sampson, Swain)
 50% of North Carolina counties had fewer people in 2013 than in 2010.
 Mecklenburg and Wake Counties will both surpass 1 million
populations by 2015.
www.wakegov.com
NC State Demographer: Wake Population will reach 1 million in
2015
850,000
1,090,988
1,070,130
1,028,410
986,692
965,833
923,677
900,000
900,993
950,000
945,143
1,000,000
1,007,551
1,050,000
1,049,271
1,100,000
800,000
2010
2011
2012 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019*
Source: NC State Demographer Population Projection 2013
Municipal Population Growth: roughly 57% of growth comes from
Raleigh and Cary
Municipality
April 1,
2010
July 1, 2012
Growth
% Growth
Angier*
Apex
Cary*
Fuquay-Varina
Garner
Holly Springs
Knightdale
Morrisville
Raleigh*
Rolesville
Wake Forest*
Wendell
Zebulon*
Unincorporated
Wake County
103
37,476
133,812
17,937
25,745
24,661
11,401
18,576
402,825
3,786
29,218
5,845
4,433
185,175
900,993
106
40,420
144,184
19,929
26,732
26,865
12,724
20,591
422,078
4,263
31,991
6,155
4,610
191,503
952,151
3
2,944
10,372
1,992
987
2,204
1,323
2,015
19,253
477
2,773
310
177
6,505
51,158
.03%
7.8%
7.8%
11.1%
3.8%
8.9%
11.6%
10.8%
4.8%
12.6%
9.5%
5.3%
4.0%
3.5%
5.7%
*Total population counts do not include residents who lived within the parts of those municipalities that extended into other counties on April 1, 2010.
Source: US Census Bureau. Municipal Population Counts. 2010 Census & 2012 Census Estimate
www.wakegov.com
Wake County Data Trends
Wake County
Population Density
1,079
1,140
Example Indicator #1
Population Density
Total population per square mile of
land area
755
2000
2010
www.wakegov.com
2012
Monitoring changes in population
densities provides an opportunity to
measure how land is being utilized in
urban, suburban and rural areas
Population Density
Persons Per Square Mile: 2012
3 Most Densely Populated
1. Raleigh
2. Cary
3. Apex
2,939
2,695
2,534
County Overall 1,140
Unincorporated 357
3 Least Densely Populated
10. Wendell
11. Zebulon
12. Rolesville
www.wakegov.com
1,183
1,114
1,068
Sources:
U.S. Census Bureau: 2012 Population Estimates. Incorporated Places and Minor Civil Divisions Datasets:
Subcounty Resident Population Estimates: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2012. Released May 23, 2013.
N.C. Demographics Unit. Municipal Growth, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2012. Land Area.Last updated 17SEP2013.
Natural Increase 2005-2012
Births have declined since 2009 impacting natural increase
10,000
9,114
9,000
9,281
9,458
8,860
8,581
8,427
8,184
7,606
22.4 people per day
20.8 people per day
2,000
23.0 people per day
3,000
24.3 people per day
4,000
25.9 people per day
5,000
25.4 people per day
6,000
24.9 people per day
7,000
23.5 people per day
Natural Increase
8,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1,000
www.wakegov.com
Source: NC State Center for Health Statistics
Wake County’s Population Continues to Diversify: 2000 to 2012
70
70.2%
61.6%
60
White
50
African-American
40
Asian
Hispanic
30
20
10
Other
19.4%
19.6%
10
3.8 5.4
0
5.8
1.0
2000
www.wakegov.com
3.2
2012
* U. S. Census Bureau 2000 & 2012 American Community Survey 1 – Year Estimate
Wake County Data Trends
Wake County
Percent of Youth & Seniors
Example Indicator #2
Age Dependency Ratio
34.5%
The combined population age under 18
years and 65 years and over divided by
the population age 18-64 multiplied by
100
32.5%
30.9%
1990
2000
www.wakegov.com
2010
Higher age dependency ratios reflect the
predominance of youth and/or seniors in an
area who may rely on help from others for
basic needs and services: such as housing,
food, healthcare, clothing, and
transportation.
Wake County Data Trends
Median Age: 2008-2012
3 Youngest Places
1. Knightdale
2. Raleigh
3. Morrisville
30.8
32.0
33.4
County Overall 34.5
3 Most Senior Places
10. Garner
11. Wendell
12. Zebulon
www.wakegov.com
37.2
40.2
43.3
Wake County ‘s Foreign Born Population doubles since 2000 to
122,357 residents
1990 Census
16,545
2000 Census
60,602
2012 ACS *
122,357
* U. S. Census Bureau. 2012 American Community Survey 1 – Year Estimate
www.wakegov.com
www.wakegov.com
Certificates of Occupancy for - New Single Family and Rental
Units 2006-2012, single family edges up
14,000
12,000
1,923
2,513
Rental Units
10,000
Single Family Units
8,000
6,000
11,833
3,624
10,529
780
740
4,000
872
5,785
2,413
4,199
2,000
2,307
3,348
4,425
2006
2007
www.wakegov.com
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Wake County Revenue Department
Number of Residential Units sold was 15,680 in 2013, the most
units sold since 2007
Residential Sold Average Price 2007-2013
$300,000
$260,000
$264,638
$267,773
$257,558
$258,996
$260,362
$266,442
$248,948
$240,000
$220,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
$100,000
www.wakegov.com
15,680 Units Sold
10,699 Units Sold
$120,000
9,451 Units Sold
$140,000
10,045 Units Sold
$160,000
11,647 Units Sold
$180,000
14,057 Units Sold
$200,000
23,040 Units Sold
Average Price (dollars)
$280,000
2013
Source: Wake County Revenue
New Single Family Permits surpass 2008 totals, still below prerecession levels
12,000
Total by Year
10,000
10,384
8,000
6,000
6,195
5,187
4,000
4,822
3,493
3,744
3,703
2009
2010
2011
2,000
0
2007
2008
www.wakegov.com
2012
2013*
Source: Wake County Revenue
New Commercial Permits down from 2012, but higher than
recession years
700
600
595
Total by Year
500
467
400
397
300
329
200
184
100
118
150
0
2007
2008
www.wakegov.com
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Wake County Revenue Department
Total Units Permitted has been driven by Multi-Family Construction the
last two years, uptick in single family
16,000
14,000
Multi-Family
3,779
Single Family
12,000
6,460
10,000
4,813
3,397
8,000
6,000
10,424
1,613
4,000
517
5,246
2,000
560
3,600
3,854
4,039
2009
2010
2011
5,303
6,604
0
2007
2008
www.wakegov.com
2012
2013
US Census Building Estimates Program
1,899 acres annexed in 2013; highest since 2008, but still lower than prerecession years
8,000
7,000
6,000
7,002
Acres Annexed by Year
6,050
5,000
4,000
4,195
3,000
2,000
1,899
1,568
1,000
0
2006
2007
2008
www.wakegov.com
2009
753
669
2010
2011
1,009
2012
2013
Annexations Completed in 2013 by Municipality, Town of Cary had the
most with 22 annexations for roughly 417 acres.
Jurisdiction
Apex
Cary
Fuquay-Varina
Garner
Holly Springs
Knightdale
Morrisville
Raleigh
Rolesville
Wake Forest
Wendell
Zebulon
Municipal Total
www.wakegov.com
Number of
Annexations
Acreage
15
22
5
2
8
4
3
15
0
6
2
0
82
283.15
417.42
101.8
41.28
176.99
354.83
18.29
233.58
0
269.01
3.17
0
1,899.52
Source: Wake County Planning, Development, & Inspections
www.wakegov.com
2013 Largest Employers in Wake County, a mix of education,
government, healthcare, and technology
Wake County Major Employers
Wake County Major Employers
State of North Carolina
Wake County Public Schools
NC State University
Wake Med Health/Hospital
Cisco Systems
Rex Healthcare
SAS Institute, Inc.
Wake County Government
City of Raleigh
Affiliated Computer Systems
Wells Fargo
Fidelity Investments
Wake Tech Community College
Lenovo
Duke Energy
Verizon Business
First Citizens Bank
Time Warner Cable
PNC Arena
NetApp
BB&T
SECU
Credit Suisse
Source: Wake County Economic Development- November 2013
www.wakegov.com
Number of Employed in Wake & Mecklenburg Counties continues
to rise as the economy rebounds
475,000
462,187
453,415
450,000
435,294
439,095
435,107
425,000
437,464
428,381
453,190
436,499
422,897
425,429
457,859
Mecklenburg
County
424,563
418,187
Wake County
400,000
2007
2008
www.wakegov.com
2009
2010
2011
Source: NC ESC- January 2014
*2013- is an 12 month average
2012
2013
Wake County’s Unemployment Rate is dropping but still higher than
2007 & 2008 levels
12.0%
11.2%
11.0%
10.5%
10.0%
10.7%
9.5%
9.0%
8.7%
8.0%
8.2%
7.5%
7.0%
6.5%
6.1%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
8.4%
8.3%
Wake County
4.5%
4.7%
Mecklenburg County
NC
3.4%
2.0%
2007
U.S.
2008
www.wakegov.com
2009
2010
2011
Source: NC ESC- January 2014
*2013- is an 12 month average
2012
2013*
Wake County’s Median Household Income is the highest within the region,
and the poverty rate is the lowest of neighboring counties
Median
Household
Income
Median
Family
Income
Poverty
Rate*
United States
$51,371
$62,527
15.9%
North Carolina
$45,150
$54,995
18.0%
Durham County
$51,094
$63,141
19.8%
Johnston County
$47,108
$58,253
17.3%
Orange County
$51,095
$84,764
17.4%
Wake County
$63,791
$81,712
11.6%
Geographic
Area
www.wakegov.com
Source: US American Community Survey 2012 1-year estimate
income and poverty data
Wake County’s Tax base is 74% residential with a value of $91.3
billion in 2013
Tax Ratio 1993-2013
Tax Values 2013-2014
100%
80%
37%
31%
26%
60%
40%
63%
69%
74%
Residential Value
$91.3 Billion
Commercial
Value $32.8 Billion
Total Value
$124.2 Billion
20%
0%
1993
2000
2013
Source: Wake County Revenue Department
www.wakegov.com
Town of Zebulon’s tax base is 70% commercial and 30% residential
JURISDICTION
Angier
Apex
Cary
Clayton
Fuquay Varina
Garner
Holly Springs
Knightdale
Morrisville
Raleigh
Rolesville
Wake Forest
Wendell
Zebulon
Countywide
www.wakegov.com
% COMMERCIAL
15%
22%
25%
100%
29%
39%
21%
31%
41%
30%
18%
21%
27%
70%
26%
% RESIDENTIAL
85%
78%
75%
0%
71%
61%
79%
69%
59%
70%
82%
79%
73%
30%
74%
Source: Wake County Revenue Department
Wake Commuting
2008-2012
Percentage of Residents who Work
in the City or Town where They Live
Percentage of Residents who Work In –
State but Outside the County where They
Live
Highest Tier of In-Town Commuters
Highest Tier of Outside County Commuters
1. Raleigh
2. Cary
3. Zebulon
1. Morrisville
2. Apex
3. Cary
66%
38%
24%
35%
26%
22%
Lowest Tier of In-Town Commuters
Lowest Tier of Outside County Commuters
9. Holly Springs
9. Wendell
10. Rolesville
11. Knightdale
9.
9.
9.
10.
11.
16%
16%
14%
13%
www.wakegov.com
Garner
Raleigh
Rolesville
Knightdale
Wendell
15%
15%
15%
13%
12%
31
Daytime Population: 2006-2010
Estimated commuter-adjusted daytime population – this is the estimate arrived at by
adjusting the total resident population by the number of incommuters and
outcommuters to the place, using data from the American Community Survey.
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Apex -5,991
Cary
-2,532
Fuquay-Varina
-600
Garner
Daytime population change due to commuting
174
Holly Springs -6,157
Knightdale
-1,841
Morrisville
6,294
Raleigh
Wake Forest
Zebulon
64,212
-3,816
1,807
Rolesville and Wendell not included in the report.
(Only places with either 2,500 workers living in the place or 2,500
workers working in the place)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-year estimates
www.wakegov.com
32
2013 Actual foreclosures is similar to 2007 levels
2,500
2,000
1,860
1,686
1,500
1,000
1,997
1,547
1,334
1,230
1,040
500
2007
2008
www.wakegov.com
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts and Foreclosure.com
What is the Cost-of-Living Index?
Purpose: To measure the relative price
levels for consumer goods and services in
metropolitan areas.
Process:
1. Each quarter Wake County Economic
Development collects price data for
goods selected by ACCRA. Other metro
areas also price the same exact goods
(at a specified time) and report it. The
index is released by quarter and
annually.
2. ACCRA weights each item and finds the
Annual Average Index from all 322
areas that participate.
3. The average cost for all places equals
100. Indexes higher than 100 have
above average costs.
www.wakegov.com
Source: ACCRA Cost of Living Index 2013
Wake County Cost of Living Index 2013 is similar to
Austin, TX and Charlotte, NC.
Area
Raleigh-Cary,
NC
Austin, TX
Comp Grocery
Health
Housing Utilities Transportation
Index Items
Care
Misc.
Goods &
Services
93.6
102.0
76.7
105.8
98.1
101.9
96.9
93.2
84.3
86.6
91.2
97.4
99.5
100.2
Boston, MA
139.7
125.8
176.5
144.4
104.4
126.3
130.2
Atlanta, GA
95.3
91.4
87.7
92.1
102.3
102.7
100.0
Charlotte, NC
95.7
101.9
84.3
106.6
98.7
98.3
97.3
San Jose, CA
149.3
110.7
257.4
123.3
112.4
114.8
106.9
Richmond, VA
101.7
98.5
90.1
107.6
99.9
106.7
110.5
Nashville, TN
91.2
88.1
84.7
88.5
88.2
89.5
99.8
Portland, OR
117.6
103.0
143.3
96.6
115.4
117.4
110.5
www.wakegov.com
www.wakegov.com
Wake County Educational Attainment- 2012 US Census- 47.5% of people age 25
and older have at the minimum a bachelors degree
8.20%
Graduate or Professional
degree
Bachelor's degree
16.20%
17.20%
Associate's degree
31.30%
18.60%
8.50%
www.wakegov.com
Some college, no
degree
High school diploma or
equivalency
Less than high school
diploma
Wake Tech enrollment continues to increase and it is the largest community
college within the State of NC.
Total Wake Tech Enrollment 2012-2013
Degree/For Credit: 27,819
Continuing Education: 41,100
2012-2013- 1,019 GED
Graduates, the largest
class in the NC
Community College
System
www.wakegov.com
Five Takeaways from the Demographic Trends
1. Construction of Single Family & Multi-Family Housing is on
the upswing
2. Number of residents employed is rising and unemployment
rates are heading down
3. Foreclosures & Bankruptcies are back to pre-recession levels
4. Population Growth Rates are trending upward
5. Wake County will reach one million residents in 2015
www.wakegov.com
Under Development: 2014
Components:
Trend at a Glance
​At last count
What does this measure?
Did you know?
How is Wake performing?
Data Source(s)
Data Considerations
Charts & Maps
www.wakegov.com