Demographic Trends:
Understanding the impact of a
changing population on Colorado
Rural Consortium
June 2011
Elizabeth Garner
[email protected]
State Demography Office
www.colordo.gov/demography
State Demography Office
• State Agency
– Responsible for population data needed by state
agencies and local governments.
• Department of Local Affairs
– Prepares data and information in ways that account
for local perspectives, needs.
• Public Information
– Makes data and information readily available to the
public, including citizens, businesses and non-profit
agencies.
• Outreach
– Work with local governments and others to
understand what the numbers are saying
2010
Top 5 Counties for Population Growth
Population Change 2000-2010
Percent
Colorado
16.92% Colorado
Douglas
62.41% Douglas
Weld
39.73% El Paso
Garfield
28.77% Arapahoe
Mesa
26.21% Adams
Eagle
25.30% Weld
Source: Census 2010
Total
727,935
109,699
105,334
84,036
77,746
71,889
Population Change Under 18 years
Change in the Population Under 18
Growth
Decline
Douglas
31,535 Otero
-798
Adams
22,167 Prowers
-941
El Paso
20,196 Fremont
-1,293
Weld
19,368 Boulder
-4,083
Arapahoe
16,970 Jefferson
-14,396
Douglas
Weld
Eagle
Garfield
San Miguel
56.8%
38.0%
30.8%
28.1%
24.4%
Source: Census 2010
Sedgwick
Huerfano
Cheyenne
Jackson
Mineral
-26.4%
-27.9%
-29.9%
-35.5%
-40.6%
Municipal Population Change
Population Change by Municipality 2000-10
Growth
Decline
55,537 Wheat Ridge city
Colorado Springs city
48,685 Englewood city
Aurora city
Denver city
45,522 Lakewood city
Thornton city
36,388 Walsenburg city
Castle Rock town
28,007 Lamar city
Firestone town
Severance town
Frederick town
Erie town
Monument town
Source: Census 2010
431.81%
430.15%
251.80%
188.27%
180.57%
South Fork town
Garden City town
Genoa town
Campo town
Hartman town
-2,747
-1,472
-1,146
-1,114
-1,065
-36.09%
-34.45%
-34.12%
-27.33%
-27.03%
Families and Households
• Family households grew at a slower rate than
non-family households.
• Households with children also grew slower
where their share of all households dropped
from 32% to 30%.
• Families with children with both parents living
together fell from 75% of all households with
children to 72% with a growing share of single
parent households.
• The largest growth of households has been of
the non-family households growing at 24% vs
16% for family households.
Population by Race and Ethnicity
US Census
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
Am. Ind. & Alaska Native
Other Race
Two or More Races
Asian/ Pacific Islander
Black/ African American
Hispanic
White
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1990
2000
2010
9
Growth in Hispanic Population
2000-2010
Source: Census 2010
Hispanic Share of Total Population
55%
Colorado Population Growth by Race/Ethnicity and Age
2000-2010
45%
Under 18
Over 18
35%
25%
15%
5%
-5%
Hispanic
White non Hispanic
Other Minority
Total
Source: Census 2010
Population Change by Ethnicity
Hispanic Population Change 303,086 and 41.2%
Top 5 Counties
Total Change
Percentage Change
Adams
65,293 Routt
152.37%
966
Arapahoe
47,910 Douglas
140.74% 12,506
El Paso
35,264 Custer
127.27%
112
Jefferson
23,996 Rio Blanco 124.66%
369
Weld
22,745 Garfield
118.88%
8,678
Source: Census Bureau
Colorado Minority Share of Total Population By Age Group
State Demography Office Forecasts
50%
2010
2040
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0-17
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
Total
Trends we’re watching
• Relationship of jobs, people and
community services.
• Aging of the “Baby Boomers”
• Household formation
• Income distribution
• Increasing racial and ethnic diversity
• Changes in occupational mix
Population by Sub-State Area
8,000,000
EASTERN PLAINS
SAN LUIS VALLEY
CENTRAL MTNS.
WESTERN SLOPE
FRONT RANGE
7,000,000
6,000,000
7.1 million
5.03 million
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Source: State Demography Office
Components of Population Change
140,000
Colorado Population Change
120,000
Net Migration
Natural increase
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
7
3
20
3
20
3
20
2
1
8
5
2
9
6
3
4
20
2
20
2
20
1
20
1
20
1
20
0
20
0
20
0
7
4
0
20
0
19
9
19
9
8
5
1
19
9
19
8
19
8
9
6
3
2
19
8
19
7
19
7
19
7
19
7
0
0
-20,000
-40,000
Source: State Demography Office
Natural Increase vs. Net Migration
• 46% of Colorado’s population change from net
migration (64% natural increase)
• West Slope – 61% migration (+ 89,312)
– Region 12 (rural resort) 18% (+15,201)
– Mesa – 82% (+30,286)
• Central Mountains – mixed
– Upper Arkansas – 102% migration
– Clear Creek and Gilpin – net out migration
• SLV – equal between NM and NI (-242)
• Eastern Plains
– NE – 3% net migration (+2,905)
– CE – 47% - net migration (+ 2,428)
– SE - - Net out migration - 4K (-3,159)
Baby Boomers – Major Demographic
Impact to Colorado
• Born 1946 – 1964 (between 47-65 years old)
• Between 2000 and 2010, Colorado’s
population 55 – 64 increased by an annual
average of 6.1% from 338,000 to 619,000
compared to the total population of 1.7%
• By 2030, Colorado’s population 65+ will be
150% larger than it was 2010 growing from
540,000 to 1,350,000. (just from aging)
• Colorado Population over 65 was 330K in
1990
Colorado Population by Age, 1990, 2010
and 2030
110,000
Colorado Population By Age
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Age
1990
2010
2030
Source: State Demography Office
Regional differences
Percent of the Population 65+
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
State of
Colorado
Front Range Western Slope
2010
2020
Central
Mountains
2030
Eastern Plains
San Luis
Valley
2040
Source: State Demography Office
Household Income
• Colorado Real Median HH Income fell between
2000-2009 by $4,500 (7.5%). US median HH
Income fell by $2,600 (4.9%)
• Age distributions
– An increase at the young or older end will cause
median HH Inc. to fall.
• Household type
– Single person households
– Smaller household size
State Demography Office
Household Income
•
•
•
•
•
Race/ethnicity of householder
Occupational Mix
Educational attainment
Growing poverty and income inequality.
Youth unemployment – long term
permanent impact on earnings.
Conclusions
• Population change throughout state is
varied.
• Household types changing. Slower
growth for families and children.
• Racial/Ethnic diversity increasing at the
young end and rural areas.
• The aging of the “baby boomers” will
greatly impact our concept of retirement
and aging.
• Income inequality and declining MHI
Thank you!
www.colorado.gov/demography
Elizabeth Garner
State Demography Office
Department of Local Affairs
[email protected]
303-866-3096
[email protected]
Colorado Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity by Age
American Community Survey 2005-09
80,000
White,non Hispanic
Hispanic
Black
Am. Indian
Asian/PI
70,000
60,000
Income
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Under 25
25-44
45-64
Age of Householder
65+
Aged Dependency Ratio
Pop 65+ per person 18-64
2010
2040
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
State of
Colorado
Front Range
Western
Slope
Eastern
Plains
San Luis
Valley
Central
Mountains
Source: State Demography Office