Snow variability over Western Himalayas and its implications on
regional water security
INDICE Final Workshop
Oslo, Norway
Shresth Tayal*, Pradeep K Vashisht，Nathaniel B. Dkhar
The Energy & Resources Institute, New Delhi
*[email protected]
Since 1973
Developing innovative solutions for
Sustainable Development
Key areas:
Biotechnology
Climate Change
Renewable Energy
Water
MoUs with 23 international universities
Postgraudate and PhDs
Environment and Sustainable Development
http://www.teriin.org/
www.teriuniversity.ac.in/
TERI’s GLACIER RESEARCH PROGRAMME
Glacier Research
Meteorological Monitoring
Glaciological Monitoring
Hydrological Monitoring
Energy Balance
Mass Balance
Water Balance
Modelling framework
Kolahoi Glacier
Simulation to adjoining glaciers
Runoff Modelling
East Rathong Glacier
Sunderdonga Glacier
AIM: To Quantify the linkage and dynamic relationship between meterological parameters,
rate of glacier melting and meltwater discharge, in order to make an improved assessment
of runoffs in the high altitude catchments of Himalayan rivers.
MODIS summer and autumn composite base image.
Source: GSFC/NASA
Jhelum Basin
HIMALAYAN ARC
20,000
15,000
12.3%
5,000
9.1%
10,000
44.8%
Mean Discharge m3/ s
Principal River systems of Himalaya
0
Indus
Ganges
Brahmaputra
Total meltwater generated : 6600 m3/s
Total
37%
37%
Indus
Ganges
Brahmaputra
26%
Glacial Component
Mass balance of Himalayan Glaciers
1
2
1
3
2-4
5-8
4
5
Location of the Glaciers
6
7
8
Source: Dr. Deepak Srivastava, Exchairman, Glaciology Division, GSI
A
B
Ablation stake network
Kolahoi glacier, Kashmi
N
KOLAHOI GLACIER, KASHMIR
A
B
Ablation stake network
Kolahoi glacier, Kashmi
N
KOLAHOI GLACIER, KASHMIR
METHODOLOGY
RS data
DEM
MODIS TERRA
Meteorological data
ASTER
2001-2015 Total 650 images
Climate Forecast System
Reanalysis (CFSR)
Elevation zones
Snow Cover Mapping
Overlay
Snow Cover
Variations
7.14
22.31
43.93
26.61
90
Jhelum
Sbow Cover Fraction
80
Less Than 2000
70
2000-3000
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
16000
14000
Slight increasing
trend in snow
cover area (812%)
Snow Cover Area
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Average Total Winter
2006
2007
2008
2009
Average Total Summer
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual Average SCA
2015
x 10000
Snow Cover Area (km2)
2.00
Average Total Winter
MW AVG
EW Avg
LW AVG
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Snow Cover Area (km2)
x 10000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0.90
0.80
0.70
Avg Total Summer
ES Avg
MS Avg
LS Avg
0.60
Increase in snow cover
during late winter and
early summer period
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Not much trend in temperature change
Increase in mid summer rainfall
12
EW Avg
MW Avg
LW Avg
35
Early Winter
10
30
8
25
6
20
Mid Winter
Late Winter
15
4
10
2
5
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
35
20
ES Avg
MS Avg
Early Summer
LS Avg
Mid Summer
Late Summer
30
18
25
16
20
15
14
10
12
5
0
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
20
Early Winter Max
Mid Winter Max
Late Winter Max
18
16
Trend in Early, Mid and Late Winter
temperature at 2000-3000 masl
Temperature (0C)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Shift in winter snow fall from mid to late winter season
Special Characteristics of Apple
cultivation
 Apple trees bloom in the spring, set
fruit, and take from 100 to 200 days
to reach harvest
 Chilling requirement
 Specially sensitive to Late spring
frosts which can kill apple flowers
 Early fall frosts can damage fruit.
117
230
Social DEPENDANCE on meltwater
Indus
Ganges
Brahmaputra
11%
21%
Indus
Ganges
502
Brahmaputra
68%
Proportional Coefficient of Dependence
Total Population vs Total meltwater
INDUS SYSTEM: Pakistan vs India—73 % of total
GANGES SYSTEM: Nepal vs India--- 78 % of total
BRAHMAPUTRA SYSTEM: Bangladesh vs China – 68 % of total
CONCLUSIONS
 Shift in trends for Snow Cover Area
 Shift in Late winter Maximum temperature pattern
 Shift in Mid Summer Rainfall pattern
 Local communities are not very aware about the changing
pattern but feeling the impacts
 This shift has specific impacts on crops like apple and
saffron, which are the main source of livelihood of local
communities
 Adaptation strategies need to be built by local governments
to reduce these impacts on local communities
Saffron Cultivation
THANKS