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HOW INDIA
HOW THE LOTUS
BLOOMED FROM
SLIPPED
OUT OF
WEST TO EAST
CONG’S
HANDS
INCLUSIVE OF
DELHI TIMES |
1951-52
TIMESOFINDIA.COM
|
EPAPER.TIMESOFINDIA.COM
1990
2016
With people rallying behind
Cong after Independence,
party controls state govts
everywhere except J&K where
Sheikh Abdullah holds fort
In terms of area, rules 93% of
country (30.65 lakh sq km)
1977
Shrinks to
25% postEmergency
1991
Post-Rajiv,
still at 25%
Alliance
Partner
At its smallest ever,
with govts only in
Karnataka, 3 hill states
in N-E and 2 in the North
Covers only 14%
(4.61 lakh sq km)
2016
Riding the Ram
Mandir wave, BJP
spreads across
large parts of the
Hindi heartland
Holds 29% of India (9.47 lakh sq km)
Cashing in on the decline
of Cong, resurgent BJP has
now hit an all-time high in
terms of number of state
2000
govts it controls or partners
At just 19% even
as Vajpayee heads Rules 65% territory
coalition govt
(21.26 lakh sq km)
Alliance Partner
After setbacks in Delhi & Bihar, BJP is on a roll again with a historic win in Assam, heralding its entry in the N-E. Mamata keeps Bengal with an even bigger
near 3/4th majority while Jaya becomes the first CM in three decades to win successive elections in TN. In Kerala, the door continues to revolve, this time in
the Left’s favour. Scorched by the plains’ heat, Cong has been driven to the hills of north & N-E — apart from Karnataka, where it’ll face an uphill battle in 2018
The Winners...
Mamata Banerjee
Anti-incumbency plus the
coming together of Cong
and Left was expected to
at least shrink the
61-yr-old satrap’s
majority. But she’s had
the last laugh with a near
3/4th margin. She may be exploring
a non-Cong, non-BJP front
J Jayalalithaa
The 68-yr-old emulated
mentor MGR in winning two consecutive
elections, beating TN’s
revolving door syndrome,
although not in the landslide style the
state is accustomed to. Neither the
Chennai floods nor the CongressDMK alliance could stop her when a
majority of exit polls said otherwise
Modi-Shah
BJP’s top duo now has
even greater moral authority to call the shots
in the party. After hitting
a bump in Delhi and Bihar
last year, Modi and his close
confidant needed to reassert themselves. The win in Assam and
significant showing in Bengal and Kerala are a happy
augury as NDA completes
two years in office
Sonowal, Biswa Sarma
The mild-mannered tribal
leader, aged 53, who was
hailed as the “anand” of Assam by Modi, Sonowal (L)
became the unlikely mascot of change in the state.
Adding crucial muscle was the
47-yr-old Himanta Biswa
Sarma, who had a bitter
falling out with the Congress.
He is now expected to move
to the Centre
Pinarayi Vijayan
A CONGLESS INDIA, ALMOST
Illustrations: Ajit Ninan
BJP Emerges As A
Truly National Party,
Satraps’ Stock Soars
been forced to retreat to 14%
(please see panel above), the
JP could not have hoped Modi-Shah combine can well
for a better setting to lay claim to running the councelebrate the Modi gov- try’s only national party.
Coming near the midway
ernment’s second anniversary. The results mark the point of the NDA government,
revival of its ‘Congress-mukt the outcome on Thursday will
Bharat’ project, while boldly provide it with the necessary
underlining its own political reassurance to press ahead
ascendancy. The doubts raised with its development agenda.
by electoral humiliations in Coming as it does in the wake
of the ‘Bharat
Delhi and Bihar
Mata ki Jai’ and
have largely been
JNU controversallayed and the
ies, it may also
party seems betencourage the reter placed to face
gime to sharpen
tough challenges
its ideological pllike the UP poll
ank, especially on
next year.
cultural issues. A
Assam is not a
JADU KI JAPI: Amit Shah
weakened Congtotally new politihelps Modi don a japi
ress, coupled with
cal geography for
(Assamese headgear)
rivalries
with
BJP. But its sucregional
bosses,
cess in taking conrepresent a happy
trol of the gateway
augury for passage
to the north-east
of stuck legislaand notching up
P 12-20, 25, 27 & 28 tions like GST.
impressive
vote
But while BJP has staged
shares in the non-traditional
territories of Kerala and Ben- a comeback, two fiesty ladies,
gal point to its growing foot- Mamata Banerjee in West
print and, by implication, ac- Bengal and J Jayalalithaa in
ceptance of, or indifference to, Tamil Nadu, have silenced
its postures on controversial critics with convincing wins.
issues. By virtue of BJP-con- Mamata’s Trinamool Controlled or allied state govern- gress flattened the Left-Conments holding 69% of India’s gress political experiment,
territory while Congress has winning 211 seats on her own,
B
Dance Of
Democracy
M Karunanidhi
This is not how a
celebrated scriptwriter
would like the plot to end.
Now the wheelchair-bound,
91-yr-old leader will still need to
sort out succession battles in his
family. Another source of worry is
the 2G scam trial where daughter
Kanimozhi is an accused
Sitaram Yechury
His risky gamble didn’t work. The
63-yr-old CPM gen secy’s
decision to go along with
Bengal comrades and
align with Cong despite
the misgivings of the
central party could
erode his leadership
Vijayakanth, Badruddin Ajmal
They had banked on a split
verdict to make them forces
to reckon with in TN
and Assam
respectively. But
both the 63-yr-old
Captain (L) and Badruddin
Ajmal, 66, couldn’t even win
their own seats
Cheers Or Tears?
Nitish’s victory had sparked talk
of prohibition being a poll winner.
Jaya has spoken of a phased liquor
ban in TN but Sonowal has ruled it
out in Assam & Chandy has been
evicted in Kerala. Didi has steered
clear of the issue
6 states lost since
2014, doubts over
Rahul’s role grow
TEAM TOI
We accept the
verdict of
New Delhi: Rahul Gandhi
people
with
made no effort to suppress
humility... will
his glee when he strolled
work harder till we
out to meet the media after
win the confidence
BJP lost the Bihar election
& trust of people
by a mile to the Nitish-Lalu-Congress grand alliance
Rahul Gandhi on Twitter
last November. This is a
win, he said, for “bhaichara” and PM Modi should
listen carefully to what the
country is saying.
very election has
On Thursday, a reportdifferent issues and
ed bout of Chikungunya they should not be seen
spared Rahul the trouble linked to any individual:
of having to offer a sound this was the Congress
bite. Congress’s tally fall- response to queries on
ing from 163 to 115 MLAs Rahul Gandhi’s leadership
in five states with 824 following Thursday’s
MLAs speaks for itself. results. Echoing the viceEven in Puducherry, the president’s tweets,
battle went down to the spokesman Randeep
wire. Congress now has Surjewala said, “We will
governments only in analyse causes. We will
Karnataka, Uttarakhand, discuss this in a cordial
Himachal, Manipur, Me- atmosphere.” P 20
ghalaya and Mizoram.
The defeats bring the debate over Rahul’s taking
formal charge of Congress into sharp focus, reflecting an intense desire in the party rank and file,
even among those not exactly enamoured of his
political style, that he accept the party president’s
mantle and be done with it.
Barring Bihar, the question mark over Rahul’s
leadership is getting bigger as Congress shows no
signs of electoral revival two years after being reduced to 44 MPs in Lok Sabha. If Congress needed a
firm signal from Rahul, this is the moment.
Cong firewalls
RaGa from heat
E
Although the Rajya Sabha map will change only slightly in
favour of BJP, Cong and Left failures improve prospects of
GST Bill, especially after Mamata said she would support it
despite her differences with BJP. Hostilities
between TMC and Cong-Left could dilute
opposition unity against NDA. The Lok Sabha
poll in 2019, going by current reckoning,
might be a BJP vs regional parties affair
ACUTE
PUNCTURE
Cong looks for hint from Rahul, P 25
Modi’s biggest asset
is Rahul Gandhi
Mamata Banerjee
BJP’s geographical spread now extends
from Kanyakumari to Kashmir and from
— AMIT SHAH to TOI
Kamrup to Kutch
TN to Assam,
sonrise clouded
Capital gains for
TMC & DMK
BJP overrides
‘Muslim veto’
M
W
T
B
amata and Jaya bucked
anti-incumbency but
veterans Karunanidhi and
Gogoi were defeated. VS, 92,
is on the winning side but
he’s unlikely to be Kerala CM.
against 184 in 2011 when
she allied with Congress.
Jayalalithaa’s win was
closer, but the AIADMK
boss, also contesting on her
own, crossed the finishing
51°C: Phalodi
in Raj shatters
India record
halodi, a town of 50,000
people in Jodhpur district
of Rajasthan, made history
on Thursday by registering a
torrid 51 degrees Celsius, the
highest temperature ever recorded in the country. The previous record was 50.6 degrees,
recorded in Alwar in 1956.
Temperatures eased a bit
in and around NCR under the
influence of cyclone Roanu.
However, it was hot enough
for Delhi to record its highest
power demand of 6,044 MW,
reached at 3.36pm. P 4 & 23
hat’s common to Stalin,
Rahul Gandhi and
Gaurav Gogoi? All are
political heirs-apparent and
all suffered a setback to
their ambitions on Thursday.
line well ahead of the DMKCongress combine.
Didi overwhelmed the
opposition, while Jaya ran
a superb tactical race to
beat the revolving door syn-
MC repeated its 2011
clean sweep, winning all
11 seats in Kolkata, while in
TN, DMK reclaimed its old
bastion of Chennai after a
decade, winning 10 of 16.
drome in Tamil Nadu as she
retained her vote share and
picked up crucial chunks
from opponents. The AIADMK and TMC successes reinforce the impression that
2016
TMC
JP, with allies, broke
through a significant
barrier by winning
two-thirds majority in
Assam, a state with 34%
Muslim population.
regional satraps remain
the principle challengers
to BJP’s domination of the
political landscape.
Oppn in disarray, P 27
2011 Chg
211
184
+27
76
103
-27
7
7
0
Others
Cong shifted its alliance and improved its
tally (44 from 42), pushing Left to third place
TAMIL NADU | 234
134
Party
1
97
2016 2011 Chg
ADMK
DMK+ Cong
134
150
-16
97
28
+69
1
56
-55
Others
Gains for Opposition combine are almost
entirely DMK’s, Cong tally up from 5 to 8
KERALA | 140
91
Party
THE INTERVIEW: P 13
Women stay put,
old guard out
Cairo: An EgyptAir jetliner
flying from Paris to Cairo with
66 people aboard appeared to
have plunged into the Mediterranean Sea on Thursday
after a mysterious series of extremely abrupt turns. Egypt’s
aviation minister said it may
have been a terrorist attack.
There were no immediate
signs of any survivors.
Flight 804, an Airbus A320
carrying 56 flyers, including 15 French nationals, and
10 crew went down halfway
between the Greek island
of Crete and Egypt’s coastline. The plane swerved and
plunged from 38,000 feet before going off the radar. An
Egyptian search plane later
located two orange items believed to be from the aircraft.
In Cairo, civil aviation
minister Sherif Fathi said the
possibility of it being a terror
attack was “higher than the
possibility of the plane developing a technical failure”.
The crash renewed security concerns over Egyptian
planes and airports. A Russian
jet crashed in Sinai last October, killing 224 people. Moscow
claimed the plane was brought
down by a bomb. In March this
year, a mentally unstable man
hijacked an EgyptAir flight
and diverted it to Cyprus. He
was detained. P 30
P
Left+Cong
BEYOND ELECTIONS: HOPE FOR GST?
Terror whiff as
Egyptian jet
with 66 flyers
‘goes down’
THE FLOOR TEST: A supporter goes head over heels to
greet Jayalalithaa after her second straight win in TN
For Cong | Fading appeal, poor leadership decisions
Cong. No longer has the capacity to become the fulcrum
of any alliance of regional parties to challenge BJP.
Worse, Mamata is better placed to talk to regional
satraps like Nitish, Mulayam, Kejriwal, Naveen & Jaya
7
76
Party
For Left | Has lost its status as main oppn in Bengal to
OTHER TOP STORIES
Gogoi, Chandy
211
handful of seats in Bengal seen as vindication of
‘nationalist’ politics. Kerala, TN, N-E potential areas of
expansion. UP and Karnataka polls next big tests
combine to deliver a blow to party’s prospects. Not
easy to make up losses in state elections before the
2019 LS polls unless BJP and Modi make mistakes
B A Raju
The Losers...
WEST BENGAL | 294
For BJP | Win in Assam, breakthrough in Kerala and
TEAM TOI
It’s likely to be the CPM
organisational veteran’s
moment in the sun as
he looks set to take
charge as CM of Kerala
although his colleague
and nonagenarian rival
V S Achuthanandan still commands
popular affection. The sprightly
72-yr-old will be comforted by LDF’s
strong numbers, but can ignore the
emergence of BJP only at his peril
Three-time CM Tarun Gogoi
(R) beat the odds in 2011
by going it alone but the
81-yr-old couldn’t repeat the
trick. Chandy, 72, despite
being accessible and
non-controversial, lost
the battle to both Left and
BJP, thanks to a string of
scams and discontent over
governance
WHAT THE VERDICT MEANS
2
47
2016
2011 Chg
LDF
91
68
+23
UDF
47
72
-25
2
0
+2
BJP, Ind
The BJP’s first ever MLA in the state and a
sharp drop in the UDF vote are highlights
ASSAM | 126
1
86
Party
26
13
2016
2011 Chg
BJP+
86
27
+59
Cong
26
78
-52
AIUDF
13
18
-5
Others
1
3
-2
Cong vote share of 31.5% higher than BJP’s
29.5%, but the latter contested fewer seats