Government Relations Update
Election 2008 Special Edition
A Look Behind the Numbers
Obama’s win is also notable in that it was truly a national win. In acquiring at least 349 electoral votes, the Illinois Senator garnered victories in key
states in every region of the country—New England, Mid-Atlantic, South,
Midwest, Plains, Mountain West, Southwest, and Northwest. As John Kerry
did before him, Senator Obama carried every state in the Northeast. His breakthrough states, ones he took out of the GOP column from 2004, were Florida,
Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Nevada, and Iowa. As this is written,
Obama holds a small lead in North Carolina, a state that went to Bush in 2004.
Senator McCain maintains a small lead in Missouri, also a “red” state last time.
The 44th President of the United
States
SENATOR BARACK OBAMA’S solid victory in the 2008 presidential election is
historic—an African-American has
been elected President of the United
States. It is also historic in terms of
political history in that his campaign
appears to have generated the highest
voter turnout in recent memory,
based on the percentage of registered
voters who came to the polls.
Obama 349
McCain 163
Undecided 26
© 2008, BLANK ROME GOVERNMENT RELATIONS LLC. Notice: The purpose of this newsletter is to review the latest developments which are of interest to clients of Blank Rome. The information contained herein is abridged
from legislation, court decisions, administrative rulings, and other sources and should not be construed as legal advice or opinion, and is not a substitute for the advice of counsel.
Watergate • 600 New Hampshire Ave., NW • Washington, DC 20037 • (202) 772-5800
Election 2008: A Look Behind the Numbers
In the end, this election—while
hard fought—will likely be viewed
similar to the way many observers
view the 2004 election. The political
fundamentals were heavily favoring
one side and nothing that happened
in the general election campaign did
anything to reverse that—quite the
contrary. In 2004, the nation was at
war and it was the first Presidential
election since the September 11 terrorist attacks. With the economy
growing, the President was able to
keep voters focused on national and
homeland security issues. His opponents stumbled out of the starting
blocks and never fully recovered. In
2008, the GOP candidate was saddled with a now unpopular war, a
President of his own party with disapproval ratings at historic lows, and
an economy that began the campaign
in a weakened state and ended it in
crisis. McCain picked a Vice
Presidential
nominee,
Alaska
Governor Sarah Palin, who, according to most polls, became a lightning
rod for controversy and opposition
and the campaign never settled on a
clear narrative.
Key questions now are does
President-elect Obama have a mandate and, if so, to do what? Given the
decisiveness of his victory and
Democratic gains in House and
Senate races, it appears clear that the
Democrats and the new President will
have a mandate to act. Based
on the content
of
the
campaign in recent weeks and months, it appears likely Obama will claim a
mandate to accomplish the following:
THE ECONOMY—take further steps to create jobs and spur economic growth
through a blend of significant spending and targeted tax breaks.
HEALTHCARE—expand government programs for child health care so as to
ensure all children have insurance coverage. Enact a health care reform package that includes inducements for employers to offer coverage and an expansive government program to cover other Americans without health insurance.
THE WAR IN IRAQ—reach agreement with the Iraqis for an accelerated timetable
for pulling U.S. forces out of Baghdad first and then out of the country altogether.
INFRASTRUCTURE—enact a new investment program to improve the nation’s
infrastructure.
ENERGY—push for greatly expanded incentives for alternative energy development and reach a compromise on offshore drilling and nuclear power.
Obama Puts Seven 2004 Red States in the Blue
Florida – 27 electoral votes
Ohio – 20 electoral votes
Virginia – 13 electoral votes
Colorado – 9 electoral votes
Iowa – 7 electoral votes
Nevada – 5 electoral votes
New Mexico – 5 electoral votes
Total: 86 electoral votes
The 111th Congress
U.S. SENATE
There has not been this much of a shift in power to one party in the U.S.
Senate since the 1994 Clinton mid-term election when Republicans gained eight
seats. With the public placing a great deal of blame on the Republican party for
the state of the economy, it was difficult for Republicans to defend the 23 seats
they had to protect, while the Democrats only had to defend 12 seats.
Currently, Republicans and Democrats each hold 49 seats, and two
Independent Senators caucus with the Democrats, giving control of the Senate
to the Democratic party. As expected, the results from the 2008 elections significantly increased the Democrats’ majority in the Senate. In the 111th
Congress, Democrats will hold 54 seats to the 40 for the Republicans—a 5-seat
gain for the Democrats. There are currently 4 undecided races in Alaska,
Minnesota, Georgia, and Oregon. The Democratic margin could grow with the
outcome of the undecided races, plus, the two Independents—if they continue
to caucus with the Democrats. This is significant because the Democrats now
have a wider voting margin that increases their ability to move their legislative
agenda, especially with a Democratic President in the White House for the first
time in eight years.
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Election 2008: A Look Behind the Numbers
Cloture – The Magic of 60
There has been a great deal of
recent speculation as to whether or
not the Democrats were going to
reach the magical number of 60 seats
needed under the Senate rules to cut
off floor debate. In theory, reaching
60 seats would enable Democrats to
“invoke cloture.” Cloture is the only
procedure by which the Senate can
vote to place a time limit on consideration of a bill or other matter, and
thereby overcome a filibuster mounted by the minority party. In reality,
while obtaining 60 seats would make
it easier to secure the necessary votes
for cloture, success is not guaranteed
for Democratic initiatives because
most Senate votes are not straight
party-line votes and Senators often
chart an independent course from
their leadership. In the end, the
Democrats have only a slight chance
to secure 60 Senators and they need
to win all the undecided races and the
two Independents to continue to
caucus with them.
Surprises
One might look at the vulnerable
Republicans who won their re-election as the surprise winners in this
political environment, instead of
looking at GOP incumbent losses. It
was surprising to see many traditionally “red” states, such as North
Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia,
Alaska, and Kentucky, in such hotly
contested races. In the end, the
incumbents who lost their bid for
another term include Senator John
Sununu (R-NH) and Elizabeth Dole
(R-NC). The current fate of Senators
Ted Stevens (R-AK), Saxby Chambliss
(R-GA), Gordon Smith (R-OR), and
Norm Coleman (R-MN) remains
uncertain—although
Stevens,
Chambliss, and Coleman have the
slightest of leads.
The Balance of Power: U.S. Senate
54
111th Congress: Democrat+5
Republican -9
49
4
Independent 2
2
40
2
Undecided 4
49
110th Congress
Open Seats
With the elevation of Senators Obama and Biden to the White House,
there are now two vacated seats in the U.S. Senate. Both seats will be appointed by their respective governors, who are also from the same party.
ILLINOIS Under Illinois law, Governor Rod Blagojevich, Democrat, could
choose someone from either party to ride out the rest of Senator Obama’s
term, which will conclude in 2010. Names that have surfaced include:
• Emil Jones, President of the Illinois Senate;
• Attorney General Lisa Madigan;
• Tammy Duckworth, former Iraq veteran and Director of the Illinois
Department of Veterans' Affairs; and
• Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr., a current member of the U.S. House of
Representatives.
Governor Blagojevich, who is up for reelection in 2010, is currently dealing with his own political imbroglio and has extremely low approval ratings. In
light of this, there is speculation that the Governor would appoint his closest
competitor in the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, to fill
Senator Obama’s vacant spot until 2010.
DELAWARE The vacancy in Delaware leaves Governor Ruth Ann Minner
(D), with a choice as well. Senator Biden just won his 7th term but will not
serve in the next Congress. It is widely speculated that Senator Biden’s son,
Delaware Attorney General Joseph R. “Beau” Biden III, might be a logical
replacement. However, Beau Biden is a member of the Delaware Army
New Faces in the Senate
COLORADO
Mark Udall
IDAHO
Jim Risch
NEBRASKA
Mike Johanns
NEW
HAMPSHIRE
Jeanne Shaheen
NEW MEXICO
Tom Udall
NORTH
CAROLINA
Kay Hagan
VIRGINIA
Mark Warner
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Election 2008: A Look Behind the Numbers
Leadership and Committee Assignments
With the start of a new Congressional session next year, Congressional
leadership and committee assignments will be reshuffled. Members of the
111th Congress will be nominating and electing their colleagues for leadership
positions. The Democrats are not expected to make any changes to their current lineup of Majority Leader Harry Reid (NV) and Majority Whip Dick
Durbin (IL). There is talk that Senator Chuck Schumer (NY) will stay on to
head the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for another
cycle, or possibly recruit Senator Bob Menendez from New Jersey.
National Guard and will be serving in
Iraq until October 2009. Some suggest the possibility of appointing a
“placeholder” candidate who will
promise to resign the seat after Beau
Biden returns from Iraq.
There is one more variable to
consider in Delaware. Governor
Minner’s term in office ends at 9:00
a.m. on January 20th, while Senator
Biden will not be sworn in as Vice
President until after noon that same
day. If Senator Biden wants Minner
to make the choice, he may have to
relinquish his Senate seat before
Minner leaves office, or perhaps
decline to be sworn in for his new
Senate term.
Although Senator Biden will be
moving into a much loftier position
in the Executive Branch, the State of
Delaware and its many corporations
will be losing a champion in the
Senate. Delaware’s corporate-friendly
laws have brought more than 60 percent of the American Fortune 500
firms to the tiny state, which has been
an economic boon. Senator Biden
has been very pro-business on bankruptcy issues and a staunch protector
of Delaware’s corporate interests. A
freshman replacement Senator, even
with the same pro-business attitudes,
will have difficulty providing the
same support for Delaware business
interests as a powerful, senior legislator like Senator Biden.
With the narrow re-election of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY),
there is not expected to be a great deal of shift in power with the Republican
Senate leadership team. Senator John Kyl of Arizona was not up for re-election
and should remain as the Minority Whip. The only major change will be a new
head of the National Senatorial Congressional Committee (NRSC) as Senator
John Ensign (NV) steps down.
With the new Congress, there will be new committee assignments, as more
senior Senators get elevated to “A” list committees, such as the Finance and
Appropriations Committees. There will also be a new chairman of the Foreign
Relations Committee, as Senator Biden leaves for the Executive Branch. It is
difficult to predict who will take over committee chairmanships and exactly
what committees will be vacated by Senators moving to different committee
assignments and committee leadership positions. Senator Chris Dodd (CT) is
next in line in seniority on the Foreign Relations Committee, but may choose
to retain his position as Chairman of the Banking Committee because of that
committee's importance in addressing the financial crisis. If Senator Dodd
declines the Foreign Relations Committee chairmanship, it is expected that
Senator John Kerry (MA) will readily give up his gavel on the Small Business
Committee to take on the Foreign Relations assignment. The Republicans will
have a reshuffling of committee assignments but it is widely assumed that their
ratios on each committee will be lowered with the increasing Democratic
majority.
There will also be a great deal of reshuffling of committee leadership
assignments with the retirement and defeats of prominent Republicans. With
the outcome of Senator Stevens’ (AK) seat unknown, and questions about possible expulsion from the Senate due to his recent conviction if he wins, there
is a possibility of an opening in the Ranking Member position on the
Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee. There are other major
Republican committee leadership positions being vacated by retirements. For
example, Senator Pete Domenici (NM) is the Ranking Member of the Energy
and Natural Resources Committee and did not seek re-election.
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Election 2008: A Look Behind the Numbers
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
As expected, Democrats will
remain in the majority in the House
of Representatives for the 111th
Congress. The new breakdown will be
252 Democrats to 172 Republicans
with 11 races still to be decided.
The decks were stacked against
the Republicans from the start, with
just six Democratic open seats in the
House, compared to 29 Republican
open seats. That figure included 23
Republican retirements—an unprecedented number—compared with just
three Democrats retiring.
Even though some races are still
too close to call such as Rep. Dave
Reichert (R-WA-8) and Rep. Bill Sali
(R-ID-1), there is no doubt that
Democrats have increased their margin.
Some states have a whole new
makeup, such as New York. With six
Republicans in the 29-member
House delegation in the 110th
Congress, there are now only three.
Connecticut Republican Christopher
Shays (CT-4) lost his seat, leaving
New England without a single
Republican seat in Congress.
The Balance of Power: U.S. House of Representatives
111th Congress: Democrat +19
Republican -26
172
11
252
Undecided 11
235
199
110th Congress
since the 2000 elections.
Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL-16): Republicans targeted this seat to win back
almost as soon as Mahoney was elected to his first term in 2006, believing the
win was a fluke response to Mark Foley’s resignation in the face of scandal.
Faced with an already hard race, Mahoney’s campaign was all but doomed
when his own personal scandal of an alleged extramarital affair, rumors of legal
and ethical violations, and potential investigations by both the FBI and a
House panel became nationwide front page news in October. In the end, Tom
Rooney, a former Army officer and lawyer whose family owns the Pittsburgh
Steelers, handily won the district by a comfortable margin of 21%.
In addition to the Mahoney seat, Republicans did flip a few other
Democratic seats including Nick Lampson (TX-22) and Louisiana State Senator
Bill Cassidy, winning back the seat taken by Democrats in a special election last
spring by Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-6).
Leadership and Committee Assignments
The Democratic leadership is expected to remain constant into the 111th
Congress. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (CA) will retain her role, with
Steny Hoyer (MD) staying on as Majority Leader, Jim Clyburn (SC) as
Majority Whip, and Rahm Emanuel (IL) as Democratic Caucus Chair. The
only potential change here will be if Congressman Emanuel decides to accompany his friend and fellow Chicagoan, Barack Obama, to the White House as
the new President’s Chief of Staff.
Other notable races were:
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6):
Already facing soft support from her
constituency in the face of current
economic woes, Bachmann drew
national attention—and controversy—
to her campaign after she made comments on MSNBC’s Hardball that
she “was very concerned [Barack
Obama] may have anti-American
views.”
The
Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee
immediately responded by pouring
$1 million into the contest in support
of Democratic candidate, Elwyn
Tinklenberg. Bachmann may only be
able to attribute her win to the fact
that Minnesota’s 6th district has been
a reliably Republican stronghold
Defeated House Incumbents
REPUBLICAN
DEMOCRAT
Marilyn Musgrave (CO-4th)
Rick Keller (FL-8th)
Joe Knollenberg (MI-9th)
Christopher Shays (CT-4th)
Tom Feeney (FL-24th)
Tim Walberg (MI-7th )
Jon Porter (NV-3rd)
Randy Kuhl, Jr. (NY-29th)
Robin Hayes (NC-8th)
Steve Chabot (OH-1st)
Phil English (PA-3rd)
Thelma Drake (VA-2)
Nick Lampson (TX-22nd)
Tim Mahoney (FL-16th)
Don Cazayoux (LA-6th)
Nancy Boyda (KS-2nd)
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Election 2008: A Look Behind the Numbers
Maryland Representative Chris
Van Hollen is expected to be an
emerging player for the Democrats
since he spearheaded the Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee
(DCCC) during this election cycle.
What the results of the election
have not clarified is what will happen
on the Republican side of the aisle
with regard to their party leadership.
Ohio Congressman John Boehner
has had a rough year as Minority
Leader, as have the Minority Whip
Roy Blunt (MO) and Republican
Conference Chairman Adam Putnam
(FL). Putnam wasted not time in
telling his colleagues that he plans to
leave his post, possibly to pursue a run
a for governor in his state.
Conservative
Republican
Representative Jeb Hensarling (TX) is
expected to seek the position.
It will be tough for Boehner and
Blunt to hang on. In this instance,
even if Boehner tries to retain his
post, there are rumors that
Congressman Blunt plans to hand his
whip responsibilities over to
Congressman Eric Cantor, Virginia, a
rising star in the Republican party.
The conflict between the conservative
and moderate wing of the Republican
party, which really intensified during
the debate surrounding the financial
rescue package, will likely continue
into the 111th Congress.
Organizational meetings are
planned for the week of November
17 so answers will be coming shortly.
With the newly-widened margin, Democrats will have little problem moving their priority bills out of the House, even though Congressional
Republicans can still employ procedural hurdles to slow down the process. In
fact, the increased majority may give Speaker Pelosi the flexibility to let her
more conservative members vote against bills and still get them passed. As was
the case during the 110th Congress, however, the true test for many of these
bills often plays out in the Senate. While the results for a few Senate races
remain outstanding, it does not appear that Democrats will hold 60 seats in
that chamber.
Despite having a comfortable majority, Speaker Pelosi may still not be able
to push through a completely liberal agenda. As has remained the case since
she rose to power, she will still be hampered on some issues by the Blue Dog
Democrats, the moderate-to-conservative wing of the party. Many of the new
Democrats elected yesterday are likely to be closely aligned with the Blue Dog
mindset.
Another sticking-point that will remain the same next year despite yesterday’s results will be utilizing “pay-as-you-go” financing. The Democrats instituted such a rule when the party took the majority in 2006, and it has proven
an obstacle to getting things done. With the deficit increasing to record numbers, finding offsets to pay for President-elect Obama’s priorities will likely
hamstring both Congress and the new Administration. Extending a series of
expiring tax incentives focused on renewable energy production, research and
development, an enhanced child tax credit, and an optional deduction for state
sales taxes was held up for much of the past year due to a disagreement over
whether offsets needed to be used to extend the credits. While an agreement
was finally reached, most incentives were only extended for two years, meaning that the same issue is likely to emerge during the 111th Congress since the
tax incentives will need to be extended again very soon.
On some issues, regional concerns have always played a bigger role and we
expect to see that again during the 111th Congress, despite the Democratic
gains. For example, support for certain renewable energy initiatives tends to fall
along regional lines as opposed to being purely partisan.
GUBERNATORIAL RACES
There were 11 gubernatorial contests on the ballot this year: 4 Democratic
incumbents; 2 Democratic open races; 4 Republican incumbents; and 1 Republican
open race.
While the outcome was not in any doubt for six of them, the other five
have been interesting to watch—especially two of the five that early on were
resisting the Democratic tide that was moving across the country.
After yesterday’s elections, we have Democrats in control of 28 states
across the nation compared with the 22 held by Republicans.
On the Democratic side, incumbent Governors Brian Schweitzer in
Montana, John Lynch in New Hampshire, and Joe Manchin in West Virginia
all won by a substantial margin. In the open seat contest in Delaware, State
Treasurer Jack Markell (D) won by a double digit margin.
For Republicans, Governors John Hoeven in North Dakota and Jon
Huntsman in Utah also won their respective races. In Vermont, Governor Jim
Douglas won a fourth, two-year term receiving 55% of the vote. If Governor
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Election 2008: A Look Behind the Numbers
2008 Governors Election Results
DELAWARE
INDIANA
MISSOURI
MONTANA
Jack Markell
Mitch Daniels
Jay Nixon
Brian Schweitzer
NEW HAMPSHIRE
NORTH CAROLINA
NORTH DAKOTA
UTAH
John Lynch
Bev Perdue
John Hoeven
Jon Huntsman
VERMONT
WASHINGTON
WEST VIRGINIA
Jim Douglas
Chris Gregoire
Joe Manchin
Douglas had not received over 50%
of the vote, the election would have
gone to the Democratic controlled
legislature.
challenges in his campaign including not being that well known to Missourians
outside of his congressional district. Nixon, by contrast, was running in his
seventh statewide election after 16 years as Attorney General. Nixon emerged
victorious and gave the Democrats a one seat gain.
The only other Republican
incumbent seeking re-election was
Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels who
faced
former
Democratic
Representative and former Clinton
Administration
USDA
Under
Secretary Jill Long Thompson.
Daniels’ approval ratings have been
hovering at 50% since 2005 and
despite his close ties and former service in the White House he was able
to pull out a victory. With 96% of the
precincts
reporting,
Governor
Daniels won with 58% of the vote,
compared to Long Thompson with
40%. While Long Thompson was
able to benefit some from the Obama
campaign’s efforts to win this traditionally red state, in the end it was
not enough. Daniels held on to his
job by emphasizing his efforts to
boost the state’s economy.
Democrats had two seats that were considered a toss up; the open seat in
North Carolina and Governor Chris Gregoire in Washington. In both of these
races, the Republican candidates ran on the theme of “change.”
The most problematic seat for
Republicans was the open seat in
Missouri. Attorney General Jay
Nixon (D) handily won the race
against
Representative
Kenny
Hulshof (R). Hulshof faced several
In North Carolina, Democratic Lt. Governor Bev Perdue was in a tight
race with Republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. McCrory was the change
candidate in this race since Democrats have held the governorship for 16 years
and Perdue had been Lieutenant Governor for eight of those. Republicans did
a good job of portraying Perdue as the personification of the status quo while
Perdue struggled to find a message that resonated with voters. However, the
Obama campaign had registered thousands of new voters and this was Perdue’s
saving grace as those voters turned out in record numbers. With 95% of
precincts reporting, Bev Perdue has won this race with 50% of the vote and is
the state’s first female governor.
In Washington, the race was a rematch of the 2004 contest when Governor
Chris Gregoire defeated former Republican State Senator Dino Rossi by 133
votes. While many Republican candidates for statewide office in blue states
were struggling, Rossi managed to portray himself as a candidate of change during this election by contrasting himself to Gregoire, who has served over 39
years in state government, and kept the governor locked in a tight race throughout the campaign. In the end, Senator Obama’s lead in this blue state and an
almost ideal political landscape for Democrats allowed Governor Gregoire to
eke out a victory with 52% of the vote compared to Rossi’s 48%. For More Information, please contact:
Peter A. Peyser, Principal
202.772.5806 • [email protected]
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