A window on the future
What is FutureView™?
FutureView™ is a proprietary model of future influence
that allows you to identify the people who are shaping the
future of your market.
Including FutureView™ in your research brings a fresh
perspective to the insights you gain, the all important - but
previously all too often missing - future perspective.
FutureView™ is a significant improvement on the
classic early adoption model, the weakness of which is
that it focuses exclusively on consumer propensity to
try new things as its definition of ‘leading’ consumers.
FutureView™ goes much further, demanding that as well
as being curious about new ideas, a future-influential
consumer also:
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plays a strong advocacy role for those ideas (thus
‘spreading the word’); and
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acts as a new consumer.
New consumers - who are they?
New consumers are those people whose attitudes and
behaviour put them at the forefront of some of the biggest
macro-trends influencing consumer behaviour globally.
They are the new breed of active, savvy consumer
rather than the passive, naive consumer of yesterday.
New consumerism is an essential ingredient of future
influence, as this move from ‘old consumerism’ to ‘new
consumerism’ is a global paradigm shift in consumer
behaviour and no individual can be truly future-influential
if not acting in ‘new’ ways.
The FutureView™ model
The FutureView™ model is hierarchical in nature and
groups people into one of five categories:
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Future Shapers being the most influential on the future
direction of a market, followed by;
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Future Makers
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Today Consumers
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Yesterday Consumers; and
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Yesteryear Consumers.
The model of Future Influence
Uninfluential
Laggards
Influential
Early Adopters
New Consumers
(Informed, Active)
Future Shapers
Future Makers
Today Consumers
Yesterday Consumers
(Uninformed, Passive)
Old Consumers
The best ideas are simple ideas
One of the real beauties of the FutureView™ system is that
it draws on just a small number of questions that can easily
be added into any piece of existing research - no need to
throw away what you’re already doing well! Just add in the
FutureView™ component to bring a future focus to your
insights.
Yesteryear Consumers
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Category purchasing – what sectors of the market have
the most future potential?
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Brand purchasing – which of our brands have the most
potential for future growth? (see example on p.3)
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Consumer segments – which groups within the
consumer base are likely to exert the most influence on
the market in the future?
n
Consumer motivations – what needs are going to
become more relevant in the future? Which will decline
in relevance?
Future-proofed brand planning
Critically, this is a model that can be applied not only to
new product development but also to the wider planning
function. A unique and powerful feature of FutureView™
is its ability to take any piece of existing research data
measured at a fixed point in time and evaluate its future
potential. So as well as being able to say “X% of people do
this now” we can go on to say “and more (or less) people
are likely to be doing it in the future”. This kind of analysis
can be applied to virtually any piece of consumer data .
So ultimately you’ll be able to plan the future of your
brands, not just on the basis of point-in-time data but with
an informed view of what is likely to happen next. It’s
called future-proofed brand planning.
FutureView™ brand analysis : FMCG
60%
% COMMITTED TO BRAND
50%
This prompted client to upweight
marketing spend on Brand Z
(which offered better potential
ROI) with lift in overall share of
market resulting
Competitor
40%
Client Brand X
30%
Competitor
Competitor
Client brand Y
20%
Competitor
10%
Competitor
Competitor
Client Brand Z
0%
Weak
FUTURE POTENTIAL AS MEASURED BY FUTUREVIEWTM MODEL
Strong
BRAND GROWTH/DECLINE P.A. OVER FOLLOWING 2 YEARS
This kind of future mapping has been validated and, as shown in the diagram below (derived from a number of FMCG
studies in Australia and New Zealand), the reliability of the projections is impressive.
40%
Brands
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Weak
FUTURE POTENTIAL AS MEASURED BY FUTUREVIEWTM MODEL
Strong
Applications in product innovation
Does FutureView™ work in my market?
Many years of experience tell us that Early Adopters (if
defined simply as ‘curious’ or ‘experimental’ consumers)
are also all too often Early Abandoners. Their interest in
a new product is often a passing whim, based primarily on
its novelty value - once the novelty has worn off so does
their interest. For this reason Early Adopters can be as
much Fad Creators as they can be Trend Creators.
FutureViewTM is a model that can be applied to any
product category in any country. The Future Shapers in
one product category (e.g. beer) may not be the Future
Shapers in another category (e.g. mobile phones), so the
questions on which the model is based can be tailored to be
category-specific.
But the deeper definition of future influence used by
FutureViewTM ensures that we can identify those pivotal
consumers whose impact on markets is ongoing, rather
than merely transitory. These are the consumers who have
a more permanent worth to marketers. They are far more
likely to be Trend Creators than Fad Creators.
The worth of these Future Shapers is apparent in new
product launches where it has been shown that they are at
least four times more likely to meaningfully adopt* a new
product than other consumers.
(* meaningful adoption = not only trialled a new product, but
retained it in their repertoire AND told other people about it too)
Identifying and understanding these future-influential
consumers is therefore critical to future-proofed product
innovation and FutureView™ is a tried and tested way of
adding power to your innovation research – whatever the
product category, wherever in the world you happen to be.
Furthermore, it can be used at every stage of the process:
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Idea generation phase – Future mapping of markets
can be hugely useful in spotting future-proofed
innovation opportunities
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Or take a more direct approach and actively engage
Future Shapers in the idea generation process, through
future workshops and qualitative research
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Then to keep the concept development on track,
incorporate Future Shapers and Future Makers into
your concept development and evaluation phases as
well.
FutureView™ allows you to step-change your innovation
research, by delivering to the needs not just of the ‘average’ consumer but also to those who are most shaping the
future of your market.
About TNS
TNS is a leading global provider of market information.
We collect, analyse and interpret information to help
our clients better understand the needs and wants of
their customers. We provide research, advice and
insight on market segmentation, advertising and
communications, new product development, brand
performance and stakeholder management. We are also
one of the leading providers of social and political polling.
From our global network, which spans 70 countries, we
provide local expertise and knowledge, together with
internationally consistent information and analysis to
multinational organisations.
For further information contact:
Malcolm Law
FutureView Global Consultant
e: [email protected]
Par Kalleskog
Global Head of Segmentation and Positioning
e: [email protected]
e: [email protected]
www.tns-global.com
TNS is a trade mark of Taylor Nelson Sofres plc