JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE (2000) 15 (4) 409–417 Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Climatic inferences from glacial and palaeoecological evidence at the last glacial termination, southern South America R. D. McCULLOCH1*, M. J. BENTLEY1, R. S. PURVES1, N. R. J. HULTON1, D. E. SUGDEN1 and C. M. CLAPPERTON2 Department of Geography, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, Scotland 2 Department of Geography, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB9 2UF, Scotland 1 McCulloch, R. D., Bentley, M. J., Purves, R. S., Hulton, N. R. J., Sugden, D. E. and Clapperton, C. M. 2000. Climatic inferences from glacial and palaeoecological evidence at the last glacial termination, southern South America. J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 15, pp. 409–417. ISSN 0267-8179. Received 15 October 1999; Revised 20 January 2000; Accepted 29 January 2000 ABSTRACT: There is uncertainty about the interhemispheric timing of climatic changes during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Different hypotheses, relying on different lines of evidence, point variously to the Northern Hemisphere leading the Southern Hemisphere and vice versa, or to synchrony between the hemispheres. Southern South America is well placed to test the various alternatives using both glacial and palaeoecological evidence. We argue here from a synthesis of key proxy records that there was a sudden rise in temperature that initiated deglaciation sychronously over 16° of latitude at 14 600–14 300 14C yr BP (17 500–17 150 cal. yr). There was a second step of warming in the Chilean Lake District at 13 000–12 700 14C yr BP (15 650–15 350 cal. yr), which saw temperatures rise to close to modern values. A third warming step, particularly clear in the south, occurred at ca. 10 000 14C yr BP (11 400 cal. yr), the latter achieving Holocene levels of warmth. Following the initial warming, there was a lagged response in precipitation as the westerlies, after a delay of ca. 1600 yr, migrated from their northern glacial location to their present latitude, which was attained by 12 300 14C yr BP (14 300 cal. yr). The latitudinal contrasts in the timing of maximum precipitation are reflected in regional contrasts in vegetation change and in glacier behaviour. The large scale of a 80-km glacier advance in the Strait of Magellan at 12 700–10 300 14C yr BP (15 350–12 250 cal. yr), which spans the Antarctic Cold Reversal and the Younger Dryas, was influenced by the return of the westerlies to southern latitudes. The delay in the migration of the westerlies coincides with the Heinrich 1 iceberg event in the North Atlantic. The suppressed global thermohaline circulation at the time may have affected sea-surface temperatures in the South Pacific, and the return of the westerlies to their present southerly latitude only followed ocean reorganisation to its present interglacial mode. Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEYWORDS: South America; Patagonia; last glacial termination; palaeoecology; ice sheets. Introduction The aim of this paper is to discuss the evidence in southern South America that can help to constrain different hypotheses of interhemispheric climate change at the end of the last glacial termination. At present the hypotheses fall into three broad groups, depending on the mechanisms thought to be driving global climate change. Some point * Correspondence to: R. D. McCulloch, Department of Geography, The University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Scotland. Email: rdm얀geo.ed.ac.uk Contract grant sponsor: Natural Environemnt Research Council (UK) to change driven either from the northern or southern hemisphere and transmitted world-wide by the oceans; others favour atmospheric processes that affect the whole atmosphere synchronously. A key way forwards is to identify leads and lags in different components of the system in different locations. The advantage of southern South America is its location (Fig. 1). It lies athwart the southern westerlies and spans several climatic zones from subpolar in the south (55°S) to warm temperate in the north (36°S). The mountainous crest of the southern Andes supports glaciers that are sensitive to climate and hold a record of change during the last glacial– interglacial transition. An ice sheet 1800 km long built up along the axis of the Andes during the Last Glacial Maximum (Hollin and Schilling, 1981). An additional advantage of the 410 JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE Figure 1 Southern South America showing distribution of present glaciers and the main climatic features, from Romero (1985). The seasonal migration of the westerlies is also shown (inset), from Lawford (1993). Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 15(4) 409–417 (2000) CLIMATIC INFERENCES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA southern Andes is the rich vegetation record preserved in abundant lakes and bogs, which offers an independent record of environmental change. Hypotheses of interhemispheric climate change A long-standing group of hypotheses about interhemispheric climatic change focuses on the role of changes in the thermohaline circulation of the North Atlantic in driving global ocean processes (Broecker and Denton, 1990). Variations in the density of the North Atlantic surface water, associated with changing temperature and meltwater fluxes, affect the turnover of the conveyor, thus linking ocean circulation in the northern and southern hemispheres and modifying patterns of global heat transport to high latitudes. Meltwater derived from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets slowed or suppressed the conveyor, thus introducing changes associated with Milankovitch insolation cycles (Imbrie et al., 1992) or with ice rafting events (Bond et al., 1993; Macayeal, 1993; Bond and Lotti, 1995). Such a view of the leading role of the North Atlantic is partially supported by an analysis of oxygen isotopes from ice-sheet cores, which suggested that changes in Greenland may have preceded those in the Antarctic (Bender et al., 1994). The implication of these ideas is that the ocean–ice-sheet–atmosphere system in the Northern Hemisphere has been leading changes in the Southern Hemisphere. A second group of hypotheses points to changes in the Southern Hemisphere leading those in the Northern Hemisphere. At one level this has been apparent in the ice-core records, which show that the overall trend of warming in the Vostok core in Antarctica began before the culmination of the Last Glacial Maximum in the Northern Hemisphere, but it has been confirmed by more recent correlations of Antarctic and Greenland cores (Sowers and Bender, 1995). Using atmospheric methane trapped in air bubbles as a means of correlation, it appears that certain Dansgaard– Oeschger warming events picked up in Greenland lag their counterparts in Antarctica by 2000–3000 yr (Blunier et al., 1998). In addition, the Antarctic cores reveal a late-glacial Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) event that precedes the apparent equivalent Northern Hemisphere Younger Dryas (YD) cooling by at least 1800 yr (Blunier et al., 1998). These conclusions have built on evidence from marine cores. Hays et al. (1976) argued for early warming of the Southern Ocean on the basis of radiolarian abundances in cores. Further analyses of stable isotope ratios of benthic and planktonic foraminifers in Southern Ocean cores suggest that changes in the Northern Hemisphere lagged those in the Southern Hemisphere by up to several thousand years (Pichon et al., 1992; Charles et al., 1996; Labeyrie et al., 1996). It is difficult to relate these records to mechanisms. One reason may simply be that the apparent leads and lags are out-of-phase oscillations at a particular time-scale, and hence Broecker’s suggestion of a polar see-saw in which the source of polar deep water alternates between the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean (Broecker, 1998). Alternatively, changes in the Southern Ocean may influence ocean circulation in the North Atlantic (Toggweiler and Samuels, 1995). Perhaps the nature and character of the response varies according to the stage of glacial cycle. At sensitive times a warming of a particular magnitude in the south might be Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 411 sufficient to trigger a termination. At other times it may have little effect (Blunier et al., 1998). The third group of hypotheses leans towards synchrony between the hemispheres and is based on studies of glacier fluctuations and associated palaeoecological change. Working in the Chilean Lake District and New Zealand, Denton and co-workers have a closely dated record of glacier fluctuations which correlates with Dansgaard–Oeschger events in the North Atlantic region (Lowell et al., 1995; Denton et al., 1999). The good fit between the two sets of records implies interhemispheric symmetry of the structure and timing of the last glacial–interglacial transition. This conclusion is borne out by evidence of Younger Dryas-equivalent glacier advances in the Southern Hemisphere, for example, in Ecuador (Clapperton et al., 1997) and New Zealand (Denton and Hendy, 1994; Ivy-Ochs et al., 1999) Such synchrony points towards atmospheric mechanisms of change, perhaps initiated by changes in water vapour in the tropics (Denton et al., 1999). These views, based on glacial geomorphological evidence, have received support from the recent analysis of the Taylor ice dome on the ice sheet margins flanking the Ross Sea (Steig et al., 1998). The latter results seem to imply synchrony between the abrupt climatic changes in a coastal region of Antarctica and those in the Northern Hemisphere. Role of southern South America The past climate record from southern South America has the potential to throw light on these wider global problems. The area is linked to global climate via the southern westerlies, which respond to changes in the location and intensity of pressure gradients between the subtropical high and subpolar realms. During glacial episodes the core of the westerlies migrated northwards to latitudes 45–50°S, bringing the moisture and cooler conditions necessary to glaciate the Andes in the Chilean Lake District at around latitude 41°S (Hubbard, 1997; Denton et al., 1999), while at the same time reducing snowfall in the south (50–55°S) where glacier expansion was proportionately less (Hulton et al., 1994). Following the last termination, the westerlies returned to their present latitude and the nature and timing of their migration would help constrain the alternative global scenarios outlined above. A reconstruction of the migration of the westerlies is possible because the proxy records obtained from glacier fluctuations and palaeoecological records reflect changes in both temperature and precipitation over a latitudinal spread of sites. It is helpful to refine the global scenarios into a series of more specific questions about the last glacial–interglacial transition in southern South America. 1. Does deglaciation in southernmost South America start earlier than in the Northern Hemisphere? This would be expected if the southern tip was influenced by Antarctic conditions as indicated by some Southern Ocean cores and ice cores from the interior of Antarctica. 2. Is the start of deglaciation synchronous over a range of latitudes in South America and with the Northern Hemisphere? This question arises from the work of Denton and co-workers in the mid-latitudes of South America and New Zealand and by the good match of the Taylor ice-core with Northern Hemisphere records. If so, as Denton points out, it could suggest an atmospheric J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 15(4) 409–417 (2000) 412 JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE trigger to the last termination, perhaps related to water vapour in the tropics. 3. If deglaciation starts synchronously in South America, how long does it take for the westerlies to return to their current latitude? If there is a lag, then it gives some indication of the time needed for the ocean–atmosphere to achieve reorganisation following the last termination. If there is no lag, then it points to sudden changes instigated in the Southern Ocean. 4. Are short global fluctuations such as the Younger Dryas reversal visible in records from southern South America? Following Denton et al. (1999) and assuming that the effects of Younger Dryas cooling derived from a thermohaline switch in the North Atlantic were transmitted via atmospheric mechanisms, then the answer should be yes. If transmission was via ocean mechanisms, then the 1000yr duration of the event may have been too short to leave an unambiguous mark. The evidence from southern South America We review here the glacial and palaeoecological evidence of environmental change in southern South America with examples from three key areas: the Chilean Lake District (40–43°S), the vicinity of the present-day ice fields (45–50°S) and the Strait of Magellan (53–55°S). The overriding feature is the evidence of warming in three distinctive steps. The first, which followed a glacier advance, occurred at 14 600– 14 300 14C yrs BP and affected all latitudes. The second at 13 000–12 700 14C yr BP is clearest in the Chilean Lake District, whereas the third step at around 10 000 14C yr BP is dominant in the south. Another marked feature is the lagged precipitation signal that saw the southerly migration of a zone of high precipitation over the ca. 1600 yr following the first warming step; this produced changes in glacier behaviour and vegetation composition that sometimes were out of phase in different latitudes. The key evidence is shown in Figs 2 and 3. Figure 2 shows a reconstruction of glacier extent (a) immediately prior to the first warming step, (b) following deglaciation triggered by the first warming and (c) immediately preceding the third warming step. Figure 3 shows representative pollen profiles in each latitudinal zone; these also show the chronological relationships of glacier advances and inferred changes in temperature and precipitation. Chilean Lake District (40–43°S) A detailed programme of glacial geomorphological mapping and stratigraphical studies by George Denton and coworkers, thoroughly supported by many 14C dates, has identified a glacial advance at 14 805–14 550 14C yr BP as the last of a series of four in the last 30 000 yr (Denton et al., 1999). During this advance lobes extended westwards from the high Andes across lake basins, such as Llanquihue, Rupanco and Puyehue and crossed the Golfo Corcovado to bisect Isla Grande de Chiloe (Fig. 2a). In places the last advance was as extensive as any in the last glaciation, but more commonly it is slightly more limited than the largest. At 14 600 14C yr BP the glaciers retreated rapidly and had withdrawn to within 10 km of their sources in the high Andes by 12 310 14C yr BP (Lowell et al., 1995). There is Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. no direct evidence of any advance later than that at 14 805– 14 550 14C yr BP. However, grain-size, chironomid and pollen variations in Lake Mascardi fed from the Mount Tronador ice-cap in the high Andes in the same latitude as Lago Llanquihue have been interpreted as showing a Younger Dryas-age advance of a small mountain glacier (Ariztegui et al., 1997). Pollen records in the Chilean Lake District also have been studied in association with the above glacial record (Heusser et al., 1996; Moreno, 1997; Moreno et al., 1999). A representative profile is shown in Fig. 3a. Two steps in warming have been identified, separated by a transitional phase. The pollen data from numerous cores show that at the time of initial glacier retreat, there was a change from a cold-tolerant Nothofagus forest (Nothofagus dombeyi type) and grassland to a warmth-loving vegetation, characterised by Myrtaceae, at 14 600–13 000 14C yr BP (Denton et al., 1999; Moreno et al., 1999). Comparison of past vegetation types with their present-day counterparts suggests that temperatures during the last glacial advance were 6–7°C colder than present, but with twice the present annual precipitation. The pollen records point to a transitional stage when warmth-loving trees coexisted with plants typical of cold Magellanic moorland. Persistence of the latter implies that precipitation remained high for ca. 1600 yr after the initial warming, perhaps because the westerlies remained in their northern latitude (Denton et al., 1999). A second step in warming occurred at 13 000–12 700 14C yr BP. This coincides with the disappearance of Magellanic moorland plants and the spread of warmth-loving forest trees over the lowlands of the Chilean Lake District. The beetle records from the Chilean Lake District agree with pollen evidence in that they show that moorland and/or open woodland taxa were replaced by closed forest beetle assemblages at ca. 14 000 14 C yr BP (Ashworth and Hoganson, 1984, 1993; Hoganson and Ashworth, 1992). The transition from glacial to postglacial coleopteran assemblages took place over ca. 1500 yr (Ashworth and Hoganson, 1993). Thus, glacial geological, pollen and beetle evidence are in agreement that there was a marked warming beginning at 14 600–14 000 14C yr BP in the Chilean Lake District followed by either a gradual transition or a stepped increase in temperature that culminated at ca 13 000–12 700 14C yr BP. There is less certainty about the nature of a possible Younger Dryas climatic reversal in the Chilean Lake District. Heusser et al. (1999) interpret an opening of the forest canopy and an expansion of cold-tolerant species as indicating a climatic reversal after ca. 12 200 until 10 000 14C yr BP. This spans the Younger Dryas and Heusser et al. (1999) estimated that the temperature decline was equal to or less than 2–3°C. There is a counter argument, suggesting that the climatic impact may have been less. Heusser et al.’s (1999) interpretation depends on the assumption that certain pollen types, which include plant taxa from a wide range of environments, indicate colder climatic conditions. Markgraf (1989) suggested that such palynological changes could be related to non-climatic factors such as soil and groundwater levels. Also, the presence of charcoal in many profiles complicates interpretation (Heusser et al., 1996, 1999). Moreno et al. (1999) attributed the charcoal to fires caused by palaeoindian burning and also possibly to the volcanism that is endemic in the area. Whatever their origin, it is likely that the fires could reflect a drier climate and this in turn could explain part of the vegetation change. Finally, it is puzzling that the beetle records do not show evidence of a Younger Dryas cooling (Hoganson and Ashworth, 1992; Ashworth and Hoganson, 1993). Thus, although the pollen evidence J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 15(4) 409–417 (2000) (a) Key to ice extent maps Present ice fields Approx. extent of ice during periods shown 12.5 ka Major meltwater routes and 14C date of opening Figure 2a. Glacier reconstruction inferred from the study areas marked. The glacier limits outside those areas remain speculative at this stage. Glacier extent immediately prior to deglaciation at ca. 14 600–14 000 14C yr BP. Also shown is the outermost Quaternary glacier limit. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 15 (2000) (b) Figure 2b. Glacier reconstruction inferred from the study areas marked. The glacier limits outside those areas remain speculative at this stage. Glacier extent following deglaciation triggered by the initial warming event at ca. 14 600–14 000 14C yr BP. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 15 (2000) (c) Figure 2c. Glacier reconstruction inferred from the study areas marked. The glacier limits outside those areas remain speculative at this stage. Glacier extent immediately prior to the third warming step at ca. 10 000 14C yr BP Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 15 (2000) (a) Climate inferences from pollen diagrams Temperature Warmer Precipitation Colder Wetter Drier Figure 3a. Summaries of key pollen profiles. Canal Puntilla in the Chilean Lake District (40°57’S; 72°54’W), after Moreno et al. (1999). Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 15 (2000) (b) Figure 3b. Summaries of key pollen profiles. Taitao Peninsula (46°25’S; 74°24’W), after Lumley and Switsur (1993). Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 15 (2000) Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 15 (2000) (c) Figure 3c. Summaries of key pollen profiles. Puerto del Hambre (53°36’S, 70°55’W), after McCulloch and Davies (submitted). CLIMATIC INFERENCES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA may reflect a Younger Dryas cold reversal, it could represent only a relatively minor depression in temperature. 413 and 11 000 14C yr BP. Also, it is important to stress that no pollen or stratigraphical evidence has been found of a cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone on the Taitao peninsula (Lumley and Switsur, 1993) or near Puerto Eden (Ashworth et al., 1991). Central latitudes (45–50°S) Relatively little evidence exists about glacier fluctuations centred on the North Patagonian Icefield during the Lateglacial. The Taitao Peninsula at a point 50 km from the present ice margin (46°25′S) was deglaciated prior to 14 335 14C yr BP (Lumley and Switsur, 1993). Ice had retreated from the Chilean Channels around Puerto Eden (49°08′S) by 12 960 ± 150 14C yr BP (Ashworth et al., 1991). The twentieth century retreat of Glacier Tempano (48°45′S) exposed peat sections that were dated to 11 070 ± 160 and 11 100 ± 170 14C yr BP. This implies that following the last glacial maximum, glaciers were within their present margins by about 11 000 14C yr BP and also that there was no Younger Dryas advance beyond the limits of the glaciers’ early twentieth century extent (Mercer, 1976). There is tentative evidence that deglaciation had proceeded sufficiently to separate the northern and southern Patagonian icefields by 11 245 ± 245 14C yr BP. The basis of the argument is that prior to separation the ice cap formed a continuous divide that dammed the Rio Baker on its route across the mountain crest to the Pacific. As a result an ice-dammed lake built up and drained to the Atlantic via a spillway in Argentinian Patagonia (Fig. 2b and c). A radiocarbon date shows that this spillway was abandoned by 11 245 ± 245 14C yr BP presumably as a result of the drainage of the lake through the ice cap axis into the Pacific (Mercer, 1976). Finally, Wenzens (1999) studied the record of outlet and valley glacier fluctuations around Lago Viedma (49°S) and suggested that these glaciers advanced three times in the period from 14 000 to 10 000 14C yr BP. On the basis of a number of minimum radiocarbon dates, the youngest was attributed to the Younger Dryas. A problem arises, however, in that this latter moraine seems morphologically equivalent to the Sarmiento limit at the eastern end of the Parque Nacional Torres del Paine, which is older than the Younger Dryas (Marden, 1997). To summarise the limited evidence in the vicinity of the North Patagonian Ice Field, deglaciation was well under way by 14 335 14C yr BP and there is no direct evidence of any Younger Dryas advance. The best dated and most continuous pollen core from the central latitude channels is from Laguna Stibnite (46°25′; 74°24′) and is summarised in Fig. 3b (from Lumley and Switsur, 1993). Following deglaciation, Nothofagus beech forest was present by 14 000 14C yr BP. Between 12 300 and 11 000 14C yr BP Pilgerodenron uviferum increased rapidly, probably in response to wetter conditions and then gave way to a rise in Podocarpaceae. After ca. 10 000–9500 14C yr BP there was a rise in Tepualia stipularis in response to warming and thereafter the forest remained constant until the late Holocene. We interpret this pollen sequence as indicating a two-step warming, the first leading to the retreat of the North Patagonian Icefield some time before 14 335 14C yr BP and allowing the expansion of Nothofagus forest. The second step in warming occurred around ca. 9500 14C yr BP and introduced the stable climatic conditions of the early and mid-Holocene. Interestingly, the pollen data and particularly the sharp rise in Pilgerodenron, suggest higher levels of precipitation than present between 12 300 Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Strait of Magellan (53–55°S) In the Magellan region glacier ice was more persistent. Gently sloping ice tongues, aided by sliding on soft sediments (Benn and Clapperton, in press), spread down the strait from an ice cap centred over the crest of the Andes to the west and southwest. Numerous minimum dates within a moraine limit, together with the presence of older dates immediately outside the limit suggest that the glacier had already retreated over 60 km from its position close to Punta Arenas by 14 260 14C yr BP (Clapperton et al., 1995; McCulloch and Bentley, 1998). Retreat of the glacier into the fjords of Cordillera Darwin is suggested by drainage of an icedammed lake in the Strait of Magellan by 13 300 14C yr BP (Fig. 2b). Subsequently, between 12 700 and 10 300 14C yr BP, the ice readvanced up the Strait of Magellan and culminated as much as 80 km beyond its present margins (Fig. 2c). This advance dammed a large proglacial lake responsible for the major raised shorelines in the area, which did not drain finally until 10 300 14C yr BP. The association of lake deposits with a Volcan Reclús tephra layer dated at 12 010 14 C yr BP means that we are able to constrain the culmination of the advance to between 12 010 and 10 300 14C yr BP. This advance spans the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The implication of this evidence is that deglaciation was well underway by 14 260 14C yr BP, but that extensive ice persisted in the west and southwest and readvanced substantially again between 12 700 and 10 300 14C yr BP. The main feature is that ice lingered for 4000 yr longer than it did in comparable lowlands in the Lake District and central latitudes. A smaller advance of similar late glacial age has been identified on the Grey outlet glacier draining the southern reaches of the Southern Patagonian Icefield. The advance is dated to between a maximum age of 12 010 14C yr BP, provided by pumice from the eruption of Volcan Reclús incorporated in the till fabric of terminal moraines, and a minimum age of 9180 ± 120 14C yr BP (S. Porter, personal communication, cited in Stern, 1990). New palaeoecological information has been obtained from both sides of the Strait of Magellan and yields a consistent environmental story. Details of the pollen, stratigraphy and diatoms are covered elsewhere (McCulloch and Davies, in press), and Fig. 3c shows a summary of some key elements of a core from Puerto del Hambre (53°36′S 70°55′W). This is the oldest continuous core yet discovered in the Strait of Magellan area and the age of the bottom sediments is constrained by three AMS 14C dates from the deepest part of the basin (McCulloch and Davies, in press). There was a climatic cooling between 15 600 and 14 300 14C yr BP, suggested by an increase in heathland plants and a loss of Myriophyllum. At the same time the Magellan glacier was close to the environs of Punta Arenas. There followed a cool, relatively dry period of ca. 2000 yr, as indicated by stratigraphical and pollen evidence, notably the dominance of grasses, Acaena and Compositae. Such an assemblage has been recorded more widely in the central and southern Magellan region (Heusser, 1989, 1995, 1998; Rabassa et al., 1990; Markgraf, l993). From 14 300 to 12 300 14C yr BP the J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 15(4) 409–417 (2000) 414 JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE pollen changes, and in particular the return of Myriophyllum suggests a warming of ca. 3°C, but it was still colder than present. Between 12 300 and 10 300 14C yr BP there are frequent changes between grassland and heathland but they are of short duration (ca. 100–200 yr) and do not provide an unambiguous signal of any climatic cooling. Then at 10 300 14C yr BP, following the retreat of late glacial glaciers, the first trees, Nothofagus, arrived and indicate a substantial warming to near present-day temperatures. At the same time steppe and heathland pollen declined. So the main evidence is of a two-step change with an initial warming at 14 300 14 C yr BP and a second stepped warming at 10 300 14C yr BP. Superimposed on this broad temperature pattern is a fluctuating moisture signal. Between 12 300 and 10 300 14C yr BP the pollen evidence of increased heathland vegetation reflects an increase in effective moisture when compared with the previous 2000 yr. This wetter phase is coincident with the last advance of ice along the Strait of Magellan. The second step of warming was associated with a shift to arid conditions at 10 000–8500 14C yr BP. The dry conditions favoured the higher frequency of fires indicated by high concentrations of charcoal throughout the Magellan region. The arid signal is also indicated by the state of deterioration of pollen at Puerto del Hambre caused by drying out of the bog (McCulloch, 1994). After 8500 14C yr BP precipitation levels began to rise towards their present-day values, allowing Nothofagus forest to migrate eastwards across the previously dry areas of Tierra del Fuego. Nothofagus reached the northern peninsula of Isla Dawson, southwest of Punta Arenas, by 8500 14C yr BP (McCulloch, 1994; McCulloch and Davies, in press) and further eastwards to Onamonte by 5000 14C yr BP (Heusser, 1993). Synthesis of evidence from southern South America Having looked at the evidence in three different latitudinal zones, it is now useful to view them as a whole (Fig. 2). First, the glacial evidence shows that wholesale deglaciation occurred at around 14 550–14 260 14C yr BP. Taking the youngest end of the range in the Chilean Lake District, the earliest radiocarbon dates for deglaciation at each site all lie within 200 yr. The dates are 14 550 14C yr BP in the Chilean Lake District, 14 335 14C yr BP in the Taitao Peninsula and 14 260 14C yr BP in the Strait of Magellan. In the Lake District and in the Strait of Magellan deglaciation is known to have followed an advance culminating over 1000 yr or so. Only in the Strait of Magellan area is there evidence of a later, significant glacial advance in the interval from 12 700 to 10 300 14C yr BP, beginning in the Antarctic Cold Reversal interval. However, a small Younger Dryas advance of a mountain glacier is inferred from sediments in Lago Mascardi in the vicinity of the Lake District. The Strait of Magellan glacier had retreated by 10 300 14C yr BP, as demonstrated by the drainage of its ice-dammed lake. The palaeoecological evidence points to three main steps in warming, but with their relative importance varying from latitude to latitude. The first evidence of warming in the Lake District was an expansion in warmth-loving species at 14 600–14 300 14C yr BP. Warming allowed Nothofagus to replace ice at 14 335 14C yr BP on the Taitao Peninsula. In the Strait of Magellan area pollen data show a change at Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 14 300 14C yr BP equivalent to a rise in temperature of ca. 3°C. Together these records provide powerful evidence for an abrupt warming at ca. 14 600–14 300 14C yr BP. The second warming step is evident in the Chilean Lake District at 13 000–12 700 14C yr BP; following a transitional period of ca. 1600 yr, temperatures rose to values close to those of today. There is no evidence of this warming in the pollen records around the Strait of Magellan. The third warming step occurs at ca. 10 000 14C yr BP in all three latitudes, although it is more marked in the south than the north. In the Taitao Peninsula it saw the establishment of the Holocene forest with warmth-loving species. In the Magellan area it saw the arrival of the Nothofagus forest, which displaced an open steppe. The pollen evidence also points to a period of increased precipitation that is out of phase in different latitudes. In the Lake District high precipitation persisted for ca. 1600 yr between 14 600–13 000 14C yr BP. In the Taitao area a period of high precipitation occurred between 12 300– 11 000 14C yr BP. In the Magellan area there was an increase in precipitation that began around 12 300 14C yr BP and persisted until ca. 10 100 14C yr BP. This was followed by an arid phase in the Magellan area between 10 100 and 8500 14C yr BP. At first sight the apparent synchrony of the main steps in the temperature record are difficult to relate to the contrasts in the precipitation record. However, we believe it can be explained relatively simply by the lagged response of the westerlies to the main pulse of warming at ca. 14 600– 14 300 14C yr BP. As suggested earlier, the core of the westerlies and their associated storms were located some degrees of latitude further north during glacial episodes. This is necessary, not only to nourish glaciers extending into the lowlands of the Lake District, but also to explain the enhanced precipitation recorded by the vegetation. Also, it is necessary to explain the reduction in precipitation during glacial episodes experienced by the areas of greatest precipitation today in latitudes 48–53°S. As suggested by Denton et al. (1999), the high precipitation that followed the initial warming in the Chilean Lake District is best explained if the westerlies retained their northerly position for a further ca. 1600 yr. We argue that, following this delay, it was the southerly shift of the westerlies that subsequently increased precipitation in the latitude of the Taitao Peninsula at 12 300–11 000 14C yr BP and in the latitude of the Strait of Magellan from 12 300 to 10 300 14C yr BP. If this hypothesis is correct then it points to synchronous temperature change in all latitudes at 14 600–14 300 14C yr BP followed by a lagged response of the westerlies. There was little migration of the westerlies for ca. 1600 yr and then it took a further 1000 years for the westerlies to reach their approximate latitudinal position of today. Global context of the southern South American evidence The evidence is of rapid deglaciation and associated warming beginning synchronously over 16° of latitude at 14 600– 14 300 14C yr BP (17 500–17 150 cal. yr). As been argued convincingly elsewhere (Lowell et al., 1995; Denton et al., 1999; Denton, 2000, this issue) this stepped warming is global in extent and identified in glacier records, pollen records and ocean cores around the world. Following J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 15(4) 409–417 (2000) CLIMATIC INFERENCES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA Denton (2000, this issue), it seems likely that such global synchrony points to atmospheric drivers of change, such as might result from changes in water vapour content. It represents the initial step in the transition from a glacial to interglacial world. With reference to the questions about interhemispheric leads and lags outlined earlier, it is interesting to record that deglaciation did not start earlier in southernmost South America than in the Northern Hemisphere. This is in spite of a longer-term warming trend, as indicated in the Vostok ice-core and in sediments from the Southern Ocean. Also, there is apparently no lag in southern South America as would be expected if Northern Hemisphere glaciers were driving change in response to orbital insolation cycles and transmitting the change to the Southern Hemisphere via the ocean. Following this initial phase of deglaciation, the southern South American evidence suggests that it took ca. 2500 yr for the westerlies to recover from their northerly glacial latitudes and to return to their latitude of today centred on 50°S. This conclusion is based on the assumption that in this part of the world high precipitation is related to storms associated with the westerlies and is related intimately to offshore ocean surface temperatures. Such a connection is well illustrated by modelling studies in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes (Purves and Hulton, 2000). If correct, then the implication is that the migration of the westerlies took place only after reorganisation of the global ocean following the last termination. This took 2500 yr to complete and began only after a delay of ca. 1600 yr. As noted by Denton (2000), the delay coincides with the Heinrich 1 iceberg discharge event in the North Atlantic (16 900–15 400 cal. yr BP), which suppressed the global thermohaline circulation. It is tempting to suggest that the Heinrich event delayed the reorganisation of the global ocean and that it was only the start of a vigorous thermohaline circulation after Heinrich 1 that changed sea-surface temperatures off southern South America and allowed the westerlies to migrate south. This scenario explains the ca. 1600 yr wet transitional period following the initial warming in the Chilean Lake District and the precipitation peaks in the Taitao and Magellan areas some 2500 yr after the initial warming. Our dating constraints show that an advance of Magellan ice between 12 700 and 10 300 14C yr BP spans both the Antarctic Cold Reversal and the Younger Dryas intervals. As the advance occurred immediately after a substantial reorganisation of precipitation patterns, we are unable to determine whether the advance was solely the result of increased precipitation following the southward shift in the westerlies, or whether there was a further temperature signal (ACR or YD) superimposed on this reorganisation. The Magellan ice cap was receiving high precipitation during this period and thus would have been sensitive to any atmospheric cooling. It could well have responded by advancing and damming the Strait of Magellan. After glacier retreat at 10 300 14C yr BP, the surface of the ice dome over the mountain crest would have fallen as the warming of the start of the Holocene took hold. The prominent rise in available moisture in Magellan pollen profiles at about 8500 14 C yr BP may reflect the final lowering of the ice dome, which allowed storms to cross east of the Andes more easily. There is no Younger Dryas temperature signal in the Magellan palaeoecology. If the interpretation of the Lake District profiles is correct and there was a Younger Dryas cooling of 2–3°C, we would expect to see something similar further south. One possibility is that the vegetation assemblages at the Magellan core sites were not sensitive to small temperature changes. Another possibility is that the Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 415 temperature signal, which originated in the Northern Hemisphere, probably in the North Atlantic, and however transmitted, was attenuated away from its source. The cooling in the Chilean Lake District of 2–3°C is much less that the 6°C around the North Atlantic and by the time the signal extended a further 2000 km south it may have been too small to register. Rather than a temperature signal in the Magellan area, there is palaeoenvironmental evidence of an increase in moisture during an interval that spans both the Younger Dryas and the Antarctic Cold Reversal. Thus this advance also could be linked to the reorganisation of the oceans following the start up of the thermohaline circulation after its suppression during Heinrich 1 events. Conclusions 1. There is glacial geomorphological and palaeoecological evidence of sychronous temperature change in southern South America following the last glacial at 14 600–14 300 14 C yr BP (17 500–17 150 cal. yr) and at around 10 000 14 C yr BP (11 450 cal. yr). 2. Precipitation changes were asynchronous in different latitudes and reflect the lagged return of the westerlies to their present latitude following the warming at 14 600– 14 300 14C yr BP. After a delay of ca. 1600 yr, the westerlies took a further 1000 yr to achieve their present latitude by 12 300 14C yr BP (14 300 cal. yr BP). 3. A significant glacier advance in the Strait of Magellan between 12 700 and 10 300 14C yr BP (15 350–12 250 cal. yr BP) coincides with either of or both the Antarctic Cold Reversal and Younger Dryas intervals. It is possible that this is due to increased precipitation as a result of the return of the westerlies. 4. The lagged response of the westerlies and the timing of the Strait of Magellan glacier advance, which coincided with the Antarctic Cold Reversal, can be seen both as a response to the vigorous oceanic thermohaline circulation that started up around 15 650–15 350 cal. yr ago, following its earlier suppression during Heinrich 1 events. Acknowledgements. We are grateful for support from the UK Natural Environment Research Council and to Dr D. Harkness, Dr B. Miller and Dr C. Bryant at the NERC Radiocarbon Laboratory, East Kilbride for radiocarbon dating support. The Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland kindly contributed to the cost of colour reproduction. 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