"THE COASTAL FLOODS IN THE CUBAN TERRITORY, THE MOST SENSITIVE
AREAS AND THE POSSIBLE IMPACT OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE"
Ida Mitrani Arenal, Rafael Pérez Parrado, Isidro Salas García, Omar García Concepción,
Maritza Ballester Pérez, Yunit Juantorena Allen, Pedro Beauballet Padrón, Ada Luisa Pérez
Hernández and Carlos Rodríguez Otero.
Institute of Meteorology (INSMET), Institute of Physical Planning (IPF)
Republic of CUBA
ABSTRACT:
An evaluation of the most exposed coastal areas to the effect of the mean sea level rise by the foreseen climate
change was elaborated. It was considered that the greater sensibility is found in those areas that are more
frequently affected by the coastal floods. The three areas that historically have received the greater damage by
this phenomenon, under the influence of highly dangerous meteorological events, were chosen as study cases.
The sea level variations were simulated by numerical methods in each area, in presence of the dangerous events,
with the current and foreseen scenarios. Due to the absence of instrumental observations, the floods were
simulated using meteorological information from the INSMET archive. A socioeconomic study of each area was
carried out in order to evaluate the possible magnitude of the damage, if the mean sea level increment by climate
change takes place. The obtained results are applicable in the elaboration of contingency, urban and coastal
management plans. The used algorithms are also of great utility in short-term forecast of the sea surface
conditions.
1. INTRODUCTION
The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) evaluation has shown that a possible climate
change would cause an increase of the mean sea level, the submersion of the lowest lands and the
displacement of the coastal line inland. The most recent evaluation (IPCC, 1996) indicates an increase
of the sea level between 15 and 95 cm for the year 2100, relative to1990, if the greenhouse gas
concentration grows on planetary scale.
Cuba is included among the nations that would be more affected by the possible global change,
considering its insular condition, geographical configuration and the existence of low shore areas in a
large part of its coastal perimeter. Most of their municipalities possess coasts and in them, important
port, industrial, fishing and tourist activities are developed. More than the 10% of the population lives
at a distance between 0 and 1000 m of the coastal line. There, the settlements are located
fundamentally in low areas and subject to the effects of the meteorological events, that can increase
their frequency and intensity due to the global climate change. Important cities, with more than 20000
inhabitants, are also potentially affected by the mean sea level rise.
It was necessary to evaluate how the foreseen climate change would influence the Cuban coastal
zone. For this reason, during the period 1996 - 1999, the project "Socioeconomic Impact of the
Global Climate Change in the Coastal Areas of Cuba'', inside the program The Global Change and the
evolution of the Cuban environment" was developed at the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET), in
collaboration with the Physical Planning Institute.(IPF). The main objective was the determination of
the most sensitive areas to the sea level rise, the evaluation of the possible damage and its future
evolution, considering the mean sea level rise by climate change. This evaluation permitted to obtain
a scientific base to design the measure plans for mitigation of possible damage. The obtained results
show that the most sensitive areas are the shore track at the Havana Mole , Gulf of Batabano and
Punta Maria Aguilar - Cabo Cruz, where the coastal floods for meteorological factors occur
frequently.
Figure 1 Flood by wave set up at the Havana Mole, during the winter storm on 13 march 1993. (Image was
taken by specialists from the Institute of Meteorology)
Figure 2 Beach Rosario, adjacent to the Gulf of Batabanó, after the passage of the hurricane " Irene " in
October, 1999. (Image was taken by specialists from the Institute of Physical Planning)
2. METEOROLOGICAL EVENTS THAT GENERATE THE MOST INTENSIVE
FLOODS BY SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE CUBAN COASTAL AREAS
On the Cuban coastal zone, the usual wind regime is basically conformed by the combination
of trade winds and sea-breeze systems. The mean speed is about 2,8 m/s. Usually, there are
good weather conditions (Atlas Climático de Cuba, 1987). This normal regime, is frequently
altered by the action of tropical events (hurricanes, storms, depressions, tropical waves) and
continental ones (frontal systems, extratropical cyclones). Other identified causes have been
the non-prefrontal hollows, the combined action of high and low pressure centers and
tornados. The more dangerous events are:
!"The tropical hurricanes
!"The frontal systems
!"The south winds, generated by extratropical cyclones.
2.1TROPICAL HURRICANES
The Atlantic cyclonic season extends from June 1 to November 30. The most active period is
August-October, although some tropical hurricanes have registered out of season. There are
testimonies of more than 500 hurricanes and 400 tropical storms in the INSMET Archive,
from 1888 to 1998 for the cyclongenetical areas of the Inter-American Seas. The Cuban
territory is affected by the 11% of the events that are generated in the Atlantic (Fig.3).
Figure 3. Atlantic tropical storms and tropical cyclones from 1888 to 1998 (Information comes from the
INSMET Archive)
The passage frequency increases from East to West. The region to the west of the 80°
meridian is the most exposed to its influence, being the most frequent trajectories, those with
penetration by the south and exit for the north (Vega et al, 1990).
2.2 COLD FRONTS
The cold fronts that affect Cuba, are characterized by the advance of a continental dry air
mass, with north winds that can be very strong (arriving occasionally to hurricane force),
accompanied by rainfall and surf. The most dangerous surfs are generated by the NW winds,
since in this direction the maximum geographical fetch is presented (Fig. 4). The cold fronts
season extends from October to April, although some cases have been registered in
September and May. The occurrence average for each winter season is of about 20 cases,
with the greatest frequency in December, January and February. Moderate intensity fronts
prevail, representing 84% of the total. The occurrence frequency over the national territory
diminishes from West to East (Rodríguez M., C. González, J. Valdés, 1984). In the period
(1916-1993), at least six cold fronts with winds greater than 23 m/s were registered. In 77
years, there are six cases that have generated surfs higher than 6 m at the North-Western
Cuban shore.
Figure 4. Cold front is affecting the Cuban territory
2.3 SOUTH WINDS, GENERATED BY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES.
In Cuba, the strong winds from the south that precede cold fronts are known as “Sures”. They
are associated to the passage of extratropical low pressure centers over the Gulf of Mexico or
adjacent territories of the United States (Fig.5) and affect the Cuban South-Western coast
during the cold front season, with speeds of up to 18 m/s.. The average frequency is of five
cases for season, being the month of March the one with more occurrence. In the period
1916-1998, eleven cases have been registered with wind speed greater than 20 m/s (Ballester
M., 1997). The “Sures” produce floods by wind setup on the wide platform areas, located at
the Cuban southern coast. The most significant cases were registered at the Gulf of Batabanó.
Figure 5. The winter storm of 13 March 1993
3. SOME TRENDS OF THE CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE INTERAMERICAN
SEAS AND THEIR CONNECTION WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD REGIME ON
THE CUBAN TERRITORY.
A connection between the coastal flood regime in areas of the Cuban territory and the ENOS
event occurrence was detected. The increase in the intensity of the ENOS in the last two
decades, coincides with an increment in frequency and intensity of the floods in winter
season. In presence of the event ENOS, the extratropical cyclones moves toward smaller
latitudes over the Gulf of Mexico, coming closer its area of maximum winds to the national
territory. In the proximities of the Cuban shoreline, the wind and surf action are intensified,
increasing the sea level significantly at the western Cuban coast (Pérez Parrado et al., 1995).
The most typical example occurred in March of 1993, under the influence of the system
known as "Storm of the Century." Floods took place by wind setup in the southern coast
before the step of the cold front and by wave setup in the northern coast, when the winds
rotated to the northwest. The flood at the Havana Mole were generated by waves of more
than 6 m, causing serious economic losses and deterioration of important urban objects.
With the available information at the present time, it is not possible to foresee a variation by
climate change in the tropical hurricane regime. However, it is possible to notice a
variational trend in the North Atlantic cyclogenesis. The hurricanes had moved away of the
Cuban territory, under the influence of the cyclonal activity decrease in the Caribbean Sea
(Ballester and González, 1997) and a track prevalence in more eastern longitudes (Ortiz,
1988). Between 1910 and 1944 (35 years), 9 of the 10 more intense hurricanes that affected
Cuba at the XX century were generated. In a similar way, between 1844 and 1888 5 of the 6
more intense hurricanes of XIX century were registered. However, the twenties and the
period 1973 - 1995 stand out for their minimum activity on the national territory (Pérez
Suárez et al. 1998).
The greatest storm surges were registered in 1932 and in 1944, in the town Santa Cruz del
Sur and in the Gulf of Batabanó settlements respectively, by the influence of hurricanes
with Vmax ≈ 70 m/s. The sea level rise was estimated in more than 6 m (Ortiz, 1980; García
and Pérez Parrado, 1998). The town of Santa Cruz del Sur suffered the most terrible
catastrophe, reported at the Cuban territory. The whole town disappeared under water and
25 000 people died. On the other hand, the greatest surfs also were produced by hurricanes.
In 1926 and 1944 hurricanes produced waves with heights of more than 7 m at the Havana
City shoreline. For such a reason, in the contingency and coastal protection plans, the
tropical hurricanes regime must be taken into account in the first place. The time study series
should not be confined to only some dozens of years, but it should be extended to all the
available historical information.
The coastal flood regime on the Cuban territory responses to the trends above exposed. In
some periods, the temporary sea level rise responses to the tropical cyclones influence and
then, the floods are less frequent but more intense. In others, the dependence of the coast
flood regime on the extratropical cyclon and cold front action is greatest and therefore the
floods are less intense but more frequent.
4. SENSIBILITY OF THE COASTAL HUMAN SETTLEMENTS TO THE MEAN
SEA LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL FLOODS.
The Cuban archipelago possesses more than 5000 km of coast, without including the small
islands. The accumulative low coast occupies around 5,2% of the total shore area. All the
provinces and 65% of the municipalities present shore areas, where important port, industrial,
fishing and tourist activities are developed The 278 coastal settlements are located among the
14 provinces and 88 municipalities (39 on the north coast and 49 on the south). More than
the 10% of population lives within a strip of 1 km from the coastal line, in 245 settlements,
basically located in low areas. These are occasionally subject to the action of dangerous
meteorological events that may increase its frequency and intensity due to the global climate
change. Of them, 93 are located below the bench mark of 1 m. There are 52 reported
settlements which have undergone coastal floods in presence of “sures”, cold fronts or
tropical hurricanes (Fig.6). Of them, 42 are located below the bench mark of 1 m and it
represented the 45% of the total, that have reported floods by sea level rise. Sometimes, they
are accompanied by pluvial floods (Moreno et al 1998).
Figure 6. Human settlements that have reported coastal floods during the XX Century
(Information was taken from the archive of the Institute of Physical Planning)
The hazard maps by meteorological factors for the Cuban coastal perimeter, were elaborated
by specialists from the INSMET and IPF, considering the affectation for storm surges
(Moreno et at. 1998), cold fronts and “sures”. The storm surges hazard map (Fig.7) shows
that the most sensitive areas for this kind of events are the Gulf of Batabano and Punta
María Aguilar- Cabo Cruz shoreline track. The cold front hazard map (Fig. 8) indicates that
the most sensitive areas in this case, are the Havana City and Havana Province shoreline. At
last, the "Sures" hazard map (Fig.9) shows as the most sensitive area, the Gulf of Batabano
shoreline track.
Figure 7. Storm surges hazard map for Cuban coastal zone
Figure 8. Cold front hazard map for Cuban coastal zone
Figure 9. South hazard map for Cuban coastal zone
The coastal area at the Havana Mole is very abrupt. This particularity favors floods by wave
setup. Although the greatest surfs have been generated by hurricanes, the wave setup by
cold fronts have caused more damage, because they are more frequent (Mitrani and Pérez
Parrado 1998, Mitrani, 1997).
The sea level rise by wind setup due to the influence of the " sures ", is observed in areas of
wide platform, located at the Cuban southern coast. The most significant floods occur on the
coastal track corresponding to the Gulf of Batabanó. The presence of smooth slopes in an
area of shallow waters, favors this kind of floods, that according to the neighbors'
testimonies, can occur at least once a year, being able to repeat up to five times a year.
The previous reflections lead to the idea that the most affected settlements by coastal floods
in Cuba, are the adjacent ones to the Gulf of Batabano (Fig. 10), to the tract Cabo Cruz-Punta
María Aguilar (Fig. 11) and to the Havana Mole (Fig.12).
Figure 10 Human settlements that are periodically affected by coastal floods at the Gulf of Batabano shoreline.
Figure 11 Human settlements on the Cabo Cruz-Punta María Aguilar.track
Figure 12 The Havana Mole coastal zone. The coastal floods occur between “La Punta Castle ” and the
“Riviera Hotel”
Coastal flooding were simulated by numerical methods for the three selected areas, applying
current and future mean sea level rise scenarios from National and IPCC evaluations.
National evaluation is in the order of 0.29 cm/year (29 cm in 2100). It was obtained by
Blazquez and Rodríguez (1991), using mareographic registers. The current flooding regime
was calculated in every case.
The return functions in current conditions and simulation results are shown on Tab. 1-8. It is
possible to appreciate that the mean sea level increment will produce very little variation in
the vertical dimensions of each kind of flood. However, in the horizontal dimensions, an
advance of the coastal line could be observed. It will be in the order of 3 -7 Km for the
Batabano area and of 1 Km in the Cabo Cruz-Punta María Aguilar tract, while the reef line at
the Havana Mole will bring near in more than 10 m.
Table 1. Storm surges return function, for the current scenario (δZ) and extreme foreseen of
1 m (δZ1), on the Gulf of Batabanó (study period 1891-1991).
F (case/year)
1/500
1/333
1/200
1/100
1/50
1/25
1/10
1/5
δZ [m]
9.40
7.70
6.9
5.3
3.8
2.2
0.90
0.70
δZ1 [m]
9.80
7.90
7.1
5.5
3.9
2.3
0.95
0.75
P [hPa]
888
910
920
940
960
980
988
1000
VMAX [m]
90.90
82.80
78.08
68.86
50.19
45.18
38.60
28.00
Table 2. Sea level rise by wind setup at four of the Gulf de Batabanó human settlements,
under current conditions.
(V- wind speed, ∆Z- sea level rise by wind setup, S - southern wind direction, SW- south-western wind
direction )
V
[m/s]
10
12
13
14
15
16
17
Playa
Guanimar
S
∆Z [m]
0.34
0.48
0.56
0.64
0.73
0.82
0.91
SW
∆Z [m]
0.19
0.28
0.32
0.37
0.43
0.48
0.54
Surgidero de
Batabanó
SW
S
∆Z [m]
∆Z [m]
0.27
0.25
0.39
0.27
0.45
0.35
0.52
0.41
0.59
0.47
0.67
0.54
0.75
0.62
Playa
Rosario
SW
∆Z [m]
0.59
0.81
0.94
1.07
1.20
1.34
1.49
Playa
Caimito
SW
∆Z [m]
0.30
0.42
0.49
0.57
0.65
0.73
0.81
Table 3. Sea level rise by wind setup at four of the Golfo de Batabanó human settlements,
for the foreseen scenario of 1 m.
(V- wind speed, ∆Z- sea level rise by wind setup, S - southern wind direction, SW- south-western wind
direction)
V [m/s]
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Playa
Guanímar
S
∆Z [m]
0.31
0.38
0.45
0.52
0.60
0.68
0.77
0.86
SW
∆Z [m]
0.18
0.22
0.26
0.30
0.36
0.40
0.45
0.50
Surgidero de
Batabanó
S
SW
∆Z [m]
∆Z [m]
0.18
0.19
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.27
0.30
0.32
0.35
0.37
0.40
0.42
0.45
0.48
0.51
0.54
Playa
Rosario
SW
∆Z [m]
0.38
0.45
0.53
0.62
0.71
0.80
0.90
1.0
Playa
Caimito
SW
∆Z [m]
0.27
0.32
0.38
0.44
0.51
0.58
0.66
0.73
Table 4. Return Function of the quasi-stationary southern wind on the Gulf of Batabanó
V [m/s]
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
>17
F [case/year]
0.920
0.694
0.502
0.352
0.234
0.142
0.071
0.014
0.01
Table 5. Approximate advance distances of the current shoreline at the Gulf of Bartabanó,
if the mean sea level rise of 1m takes place.
⇒ de 1.8 a 2 km
⇒ de 4.7 a 5 km
⇒ de 2 a 3 km
⇒ de 1.3 a 1.5 km
⇒ de 2 a 2.7 km
⇒ a 1 km
⇒ de 2.6 a 3 km
⇒ a 5 km
Beach Majana
Beach Guanimar
Beach El Cajío
Surgidero de Batabanó
Beach Mayabeque
Beach Rosario
Beach Caimito
Beach Tasajera
Table 6. Storm surge return function ´[F], obtained for the current scenario (δZ) and foreseen of about 1 m
(δZ1), on the Cabo Cruz-Punta María Aguilar shore track. ( Study period 1891-1991).
F
¨[case/year]
1/1000
1/500
1/300
1/200
1/100
1/50
1/20
1/10
δZ [m]
δZ1 [m]
9.0
7.50
6.7
5.2
3.7
2.2
0.70
0.50
9.20
7.70
6.9
5.3
3.8
2.3
0.90
0.70
Pmin
[hPa]
Vmax [m/s]
888
900
920
940
960
980
1000
1006
90.90
86.32
78.08
68.86
58.19
45.18
36.00
16.50
Table 7. Return function [F] for deep-water wave elements, at the Havana Mole
F [case /years]
1/2
1/5
1/10
1/20
1/50
1/75
1/100
1/200
Períod [s]
9.0
10.0
10.57
10.98
11.04
11.45
11.55
11.75
Significant height [m]
5.0
6.0
7.95
9.06
10.34
11.61
11.93
13.83
Table 8. Advanced distances of the reef area, for different scenarios
of mean sea level rise by climate change.
Foreseen scenarios [m]
29 cm
50 cm
1m
Advance distances [m]
3.3
5.7
11.5
5. RESPONSE STRATEGY
The obtained results from this research, have been taken as base for the mitigation measures
plan of possible damage on the coastal areas. The most important problems on the Cuban
coasts are presented in the following aspects:
- the human habitat.
- the natural ecosystems,
- the changes in the distribution, density and migration of the population,
- the economic activities,
- lost and degradation of terrestrial waters,
- the population's dissatisfaction with the public services in the study areas,
- lost of the productivity of agricultural and forest soils,
- degradation of the natural protection systems in the shoreline,
- deterioration of the beaches and their repercussion in recreation activities and tourism.
As response strategy, a mitigation measure plan with normative and legislative character has
been elaborated and inserted in national and local programs, dedicated to the integrated
coastal management. With the application of this plan, the sustainable development is
guaranteed as form of facing the possible climate change. There are included the following
recommendations:
- The relocation and protection of the socioeconomic objects.
- Partial or total relocation of the settlements in danger.
- If the settlements are already very deteriorated, it is recommended to improve the hygienicsanitary conditions (drainages and sewer system) and the primary attention of health,
continuing with the housings and aqueduct network.
- In the beach and recreation areas, it is recommended to maintain the settlements under
vacation provisional condition, taking the accommodation and protection measures against
the coast line setback and flooding by sea level rise.
- The vacation construction should be limited exactly inside the first coast line on the sandy
dune .
In the Fig. 14, the application scheme of the mitigation measures on the human settlements is
presented.
Figure 13. Mitigation Measures
CONCLUSIONS
- There are 244 settlements in the country, with a population of 1,41 million inhabitants
living within a strip of 1000 meters from shoreline. Around 48,000 inhabitants live below the
bench mark of 1 meter. If the IPCC maximum scenario occurs, all these settlements would be
under the sea.
- The most sensitive areas to the possible mean sea level rise by climatic change are those
that are more exposed to floods by meteorological facts. These areas are the coastal tracts of
the Gulf of Batabanó, the Havana Mole and Cabo Cruz-Punta María Aguilar. The early
elaboration of contingency plans will allow to mitigate the possible damages of the mean sea
level increase by the foreseen climate change.
- The mean sea level rise scenarios, included the maximum predicted by IPCC of about 1 m
for the 2100 year, doesn't have great impact in the vertical dimension of the temporary sea
level rise by meteorological factors on the study areas. With the scenario of 1 m, the
estimate values modify among 3 –5% in the places of maximum elevation. However, it would
modify the penetration inland reach in several km, including inland displacement of the
current zero bench mark.
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