Whither strategic partnership? Assessing Italy's relations with China over the past decade Giovanni B. Andornino1 Assistant professor of International Relations of East Asia Dept. of Cultures, Politics and Society, University of Torino [email protected] ABSTRACT – This paper offers a critical evaluation of the first decade of “strategic partnership” between Italy and China, assessing the key rationales underpinning the bilateral relation in light of the progressive re-nationalization of China’s engagement with Europe. Adopting a foreign policy analysis approach, and based on a comprehensive body of empirical evidence, the paper examines the dynamics of asymmetrical competition and asynchronous opportunity generation characterizing bilateral trade – the cornerstone of reciprocal interest in sustained interaction – and discusses the structural limitations imposed on the strategic ambitions of Italy’s China policy by unsteady political resolve, diffuse social distrust, constrained institutional resources, and scarcely entrenched epistemic communities. Paper presented to the SISP annual conference: Florence, 12-14 September 2013. Draft. Please do not quote without author’s permission. 1 Current relations between Italy and China are heir to a unique pattern of exchanges of ideas as well as private, public, and symbolic goods. Contrary to the dynamics – and narratives – of China’s encounters with other Western powers, which induced transformations in Chinese institutions and society through often violent competition, Italian intercourse with traditional and modern China has been largely immune to geopolitical rivalry and confrontation. Perhaps revealingly, among the hundreds of bas-reliefs decorating the Chinese Millennium Monument (zhonghua shijitan), a focal testimony to the nation’s rejuvenation project now purposefully brought forward by the “fifth generation” of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders2, the only two scenes depicting foreign figures commemorate legendary encounters with Italians ante litteram. One portrays Venetian merchant Marco Polo’s (1254−1324) acquaintance with Kublai Khan’s (1215−1294) Yuan Empire; the other shows Jesuit missionary Matteo Ricci (1552– 1610) dwelling in Ming Emperor Wan Li’s (1573–1620) domains. Venetian and Genoese ships were indeed pivotal in connecting Europe with the far more advanced Sino-Arabic commercial circuits in the Thirteenth century 3 , and Polo remains emblematic in the rhetorical trope of a now revived Silk Road connecting China with its largest trade partner, Europe. Alongside routes opened for the exchange of private goods – critical in the early phase of Western engagement with Imperial China4 –, avenues for the exchange of ideas would be brokered by European missionaries, among whom Jesuits from the Italian cities of Macerata, Trento and Milan (to cite but a few paradigmatic examples) pioneered intellectual exchanges with the Chinese élites in fields as diverse as mathematics, astronomy, geography, history, art and methodology, touching upon issues that would be at the core of traditional China’s deconstruction and transition to modernity. With the unraveling of political and social structures in pre-modern Italy and China, ideational exchange and juxtaposition between the two would-be nations – while affected by the inevitable prospective distortions of any mirror-image mechanism – did not cease to be influential at key historical junctures. China became a term of comparison in the milieu of the Italian Enlightenment, featuring as a “dialectical other” in the process of germination of a social and civic conscience in Italy5. Chinese intellectuals, on their part, were inspired by the Risorgimento, the Nineteenth-century movement for Italian unification, which was projected inside China’s political debate as leading reformist Liang Qichao (1873–1929) produced a biographical study of the key figures of this movement (Mazzini, Cavour and Garibaldi) and a play – Xin Luoma (The new Rome, 1902) – in which he used the voice of another iconic Italian, Dante, to stir the heroic spirit of the Chinese people on the path to national liberation6. According to Liang, “only Italy presents some aspects similar to today’s China, especially if one considers its plight before the achievement of its national unification”7. Fascism too exerted significant cultural influence on Republican China first and, ostensibly a contrario, on the PRC afterwards, when the word was used as label for the arch-enemies of the newly-founded state. Chiang Kai-shek has been described as an “enthusiastic admirer of fascism,” deliberately attempting to create a fascist China using the ideology of Mussolini’s Italy and Hitler’s Germany8. Other interpretations differ, arguing that it was not Mussolini’s fascist principles per se (and certainly not qua Italian) that inspired Chiang's actions, but rather the relatively indeterminate set 2 of modern instrumentalities employed by Italian fascists first, and later replicated elsewhere in Europe. In this sense, Nationalist China’s ends remained defined by Chiang’s conservative reading of Sun Yat-sen’s Sanmin zhuyi (Three principles of the people), and the kind of inspiration that was drawn from Italy’s fascist movement had more to do with the means by which to organize society so as to achieve China’s own peculiar aims9. Some of these eminently modern means endured past Chiang’s defeat, and retained their value in the subsequent push for socialist modernization. Following the hiatus determined by the dislocations of the Second world war and the early logics of the Cold war, which saw Italy firmly in the US orbit, Rome resumed contacts with China as a subordinate thread of what has been termed its “microGaullist”10 overture to the Soviet bloc in the 1960s. While economic considerations played a role in this phase, the core value at stake in the transformed international context ushered in by the Sino-Soviet split and the U.S. détente with the PRC was essentially symbolic in nature and had to do with recognition. As well as in the social one, credit is a most potent symbolic good in the international realm: “the power granted to those who have obtained sufficient recognition to be in a position to impose recognition”11. The PRC leadership was then – and remains today – highly sensitive to the international status of their country for two fundamental reasons: geopolitically, widespread recognition of the PRC as the “only one China” is vital for Beijing’s irredentist agenda, which aims for the eventual incorporation of the “other” China on the island Taiwan (to this day, officially the Republic of China); domestically, the projection of the country’s stature globally is key to the legitimacy of the CCP’s monopoly of political power12. The establishment of formal bilateral diplomatic relations between Italy and China on November 6, 1970 – one year ahead of the PRC’s successful bid to take over the Chinese seat in the United Nations, and eight years before Washington and Beijing exchanges ambassadors in early 1979 – remains a positive testimony to Italy’s foreign policy autonomy in Beijing’s eyes.13 In 1970 Italy was pursuing its own share of symbolic returns: Rome sought to shore up its credentials as a dynamic and constructive international player within the Atlantic alliance, one that could read the Zeitgeist and actively facilitate the impending transformation of the international system through a more complete incorporation of China. The negotiations leading to the diplomatic success of 1970 were not, however, the only instance in which Rome chose to deploy remarkable symbolic power in its approach towards China. The course of action taken in September 1990 by Foreign Minister Gianni De Michelis – at a time when Italy’s act was magnified by Rome holding the rotating presidency of the European Community – was just as consequential, if not more so. Given that the fundamental “core interest” pursued by the Chinese leadership is that of preserving the political system of the PRC, which is underpinned by the symbiotic relationship of Party and State (dangguo), 14 De Michelis’s choice to spearhead the normalization of ties after the violent repression of the Tian’an men reform movement in 1989 could hardly have been of greater strategic import. Fissures in the cordon sanitaire imposed on the PRC after June 4th had already emerged with Japan resuming contacts and the World Bank re-activating credit lines, but in the context of the sudden, systemic failure of the socialist bloc, high-level support from a core Western country was eagerly seized upon by Beijing. On this occasion, however, the renewed recognition of China’s place in the family of nations, 3 sealed by Prime Minister Giulio Andreotti’s visit to the Chinese capital in September 1991 and that of his counterpart Li Peng to Rome in January 1992, was premised upon a political calculus that, on the Italian side too, was somewhat different from 1970. Expectations of oblique reciprocity in the field of trade featured much more prominently, this time. Such expectations were indeed quickly met in the rather spurious form of what could be termed a guanxi éntente, a phase lasting for less than two years that is often regarded as the historical zenith of Italy’s relations with China in modern times. Two aspects ought to be recognized of this very favorable, if short-lived, strategic convergence: the first is the nature of the relation of amity and trust, which had matured out of an existential crisis for the Chinese leadership, and was thus considered to be premised upon a perception of compatible horizons for the two countries. The Italian government was hardly the only one to consider any prolonged isolation of China untenable, but during his visit to Beijing in May 1991 De Michelis seemed to capture the essence of the grand bargain that Deng was about to re-launch through his forthcoming Southern tour: accelerated development and access to material wealth in exchange for uncontested political primacy for the CCP inside China.15 The Italian Minister’s decision to commit 600 billion liras (just short of EUR 600 million at today’s prices) through funds of the Italian Development Cooperation (IDC) attests to Italy’s determination to be part of this development drive. The second defining feature of this guanxi éntente is the informal and personalized quality it possessed, whereby the affinity of apical figures in the respective political milieus would reverberate on an institutional scale while transcending the state machinery for its reproduction (and control).16 The impulse to build relationships, which reflects the highly personalized view of the political process in China,17 was effortlessly compatible with the clientelar practices which have traditionally characterized Italian socio-political and economic dynamics. 18 As a result, opportunities arising in China for joint undertakings, especially through IDC funds – such as the famous case of the development of the Pudong district in Shanghai –, were socialized through logics and networks of patronage which often surpassed formal agencies. Such practices could be effective in minimizing transaction costs for individual Italian actors operating in the complex Chinese environment, but on a more systemic level they detracted from the strategic import of Italy’s engagement: a passive tendency to negotiate over the distribution of emerging opportunities often replaced active efforts to define long-term synergies at the intersection of China’s development agendas and Italy’s comprehensive industrial capacity. The limits of this approach became tangible in 1992, as widespread corruption scandals (several of which did in fact involve the mismanagement of IDC budgets) generated a profound dislocation in the Italian political system, leading to the sudden freeze of funds allocated for IDC initiatives abroad, including the Pudong project. With pivotal “friends of China” in Rome now out of office and often under investigation, the combination of over-reliance on informal networks and manifest incapacity to make true of promised investments were lethal to Italy’s repute as a reliable partner for China. An Italian Parliamentary Commission later established to investigate the handling of the IDC policies toward developing countries records the “occasional failures in the adjudication of bids,” admitted to by high-level Chinese officials with reference to the occasional interference of personal connections19. More 4 tellingly for the future of bilateral relations, however, the same report somewhat unwittingly bears witness to the demise of the guanxi éntente, repeatedly quoting an admonition by the Deputy Director-General of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, who warned that Italy stood to “lose face”. The following two decades witnessed a difficult process of re-institutionalization of bilateral engagement, and somewhat erratic attempts to repair Italy’s authoritativeness and rebuild its trustworthiness in the eyes of the Chinese partner. As it is frequently remarked by both Italian and Chinese officials and businesspeople in China, Italy’s engagement with China has since remained in catch-up mode20. The following two sections thus explore the ambitions, structural limits, and perspectives of the current Italian projection towards the PRC respectively in the economic and political realms. The political economy of current bilateral relations Italy-China relations in the economic realm are rendered unique by three fundamental factors and two specific dynamics21. The former are constituted by the presence – both in the Chinese and Italian economy – of a strong manufacturing sector, heavy reliance on exports, and a distinctively low-tech production bias. The two dynamics that have developed upon these foundations may be characterized as asymmetrical competition and asynchronous access to trade opportunities. While China has now long (re-)emerged as a global industrial hub, with manufacturing accounting for 30 percent of added value on GDP in 201022, there is far less recognition that manufacturing is equally as significant in Italy. Added value originating from manufacturing is worth 17 percent of the Italian GDP, the second highest such percentage among the larger advanced European economies after Germany at 21 percent. Manufactured goods are crucial for Italy’s exports: while Chinese exports of manufactured goods have topped the US and Germany to achieve world primacy (10.4 percent of the world’s total in 2011), Italy ranks eight globally (2.9 percent), having consolidated in 2010 its position as the third European country for overall extra-EU exports, at 10.7 percent of the Union’s total23. For the most part, Italy’s exports are low-tech in content: in 2009 only 8 percent of Italian exports could be qualified as high-tech, an exceptionally small proportion compared to the OECD average, and barely half of what was reported for German manufacturing24. Over the past thirty years, Italy has pursued a peculiar path for an advanced economy: rather than facilitating a transition towards new types of production at the higher end of the technological and human capital spectrum through investment in research and development, national manufacture has mostly continued to specialize in traditional sectors25. Given these premises, the PRC’s increasing projection on global markets inevitably induced an early competitive dynamic, with consequent severe displacement of Italian companies. The PRC’s vigor in international trade brought radical changes to the workings of global business, beginning with labor-intensive, low-tech sectors26. The initial effect was a sharp decline first in the value (in the 1990s) and subsequently in the volume (in the first half of the 2000s) of Italian manufacturing exports27. Data published by ISTAT, Italy’s national bureau of statistics, show that the pressure of Chinese exports was perceived throughout Italy’s traditional production sectors: 5 between 2001 and 2010 Italy’s share of the global textile market fell from 8.70 to 6.62 percent (vis-à-vis China’s growth from 18.62 to 36.74 percent); furniture dropped from 14.71 to 8.78 percent (against China’s increase from 7.82 to 28.32 percent); mechanics decreased from 6.97 to 6.33 percent (while Chinese competitors increased their share from 3.92 to 11.02 percent)28. While a variety of endogenous factors should also be taken into account in examining Italy’s enfeebled position in the global trade arena (including a long-running accumulation of structural deficiencies in its domestic economy and a decline in overall competitiveness), the significant pressure brought by Chinese goods in all OECD markets, as well as in emerging countries, constitutes an especially salient variable, considering that such markets taken together are the destination of about 85 percent of Italian exports29. Sino-Italian competition in trade is characterized by its remarkable asymmetry. The underlying elements of such asymmetry mostly derive from the different scope for monetary flexibility, the diverse structure of the comparative advantages in production, and distinctive corporate governance practices in the two countries. While the statute of the European Central Bank explicitly mandates that the ECB safeguard price stability above all other concerns, the People’s Bank of China has far wider margins for action, constrained only by the government’s economic policy choices. Chinese exports have greatly benefitted from a prolonged strategy of artificial undervaluation of the renminbi, which was finally allowed to gradually appreciate in the period 2005−2008, and again from June 2010, when the currency was permitted to fluctuate, although only within narrow pre-determined margins. Significantly, this appreciation did not occur across the board: while the value of the renminbi against the dollar grew by approximately 21 percent in the 2005−2008 period, and by a further 6 percent between June 2010 and August 2011, it initially displayed a more limited appreciation vis-à-vis the euro (approximately 15 percent between 2005 and 2008) only to later depreciate again between June 2010 and early November 2011 (-2.7 percent), despite this being the height of the Eurozone crisis30. As for the asymmetry in the structure of production and in corporate governance, the most frequently cited data relate to low-skilled labor costs – inevitably much lower in China than in Italy, though slowly rising in recent years – and to the effectiveness of the regulatory framework, which in the PRC is not fully effective in preventing various kinds of dumping practices. The different size of companies in the two countries is a further significant factor: 94.8 percent of Italian businesses are microenterprises (with an average of 3.9 employees each), a much bigger proportion than any other advanced economy. Although there is a scarcity of comparable data for the PRC, Chinese companies – especially those engaging in export – are on average of a far bigger size. Adding to the dimensional aspect of Chinese enterprises, many of which have grown to take advantage of economies of scale to degrees that are unattainable by Italian competitors, a sizeable number of the larger-size companies display ownership patterns that effectively qualify them as state-run. Although only few of the 125 groups controlled by the Chinese Party-State appear to directly impact strategic Italian production sectors, their opaque ownership structure covers a variety of subsidiaries operating in various fields31. The continuing (and possibly growing) relevance of State firms in the Chinese economy (whose output is estimated between 30 and 50 6 percent of GDP) constitutes an additional element of disproportion between China and Italy. The well-established practice of Chinese-style “revolving door politics”, involving a constant movement of personnel between State-run companies and the formal Party-State apparatus, together with preferential access to credit and often privileged government procurement policies, give these companies powerful competitive edge. The asymmetrical competition dynamic weighting on Italy-China relations since the 1990s has been complemented by a specific phenomenon of asynchrony of opportunities in bilateral trade and investment flows. While the global financial crisis may increase the political momentum for a thorough implementation of the PRC’s Twelfth five-year program (2011-2015) – which calls for a re-balancing of the Chinese economy through increased domestic demand, investment on human capital and outbound foreign investment (OFDI) – China’s economy currently remains largely structured around export-oriented manufacturing, financed by substantial international investments and focused on low added-value production and the assembling of imported semi-finished products. In this context, trade opportunities for Italy in China remain structurally deferred, while Chinese companies crowd competitors out of global markets. A clear indicator of this tendency is Italy’s trade deficit with the PRC, which has significantly increased over the past decade. In 2010, Italy suffered a deficit in its trade balance with China of over EUR 20 billion and this trend does not seem to be experiencing any structural correction (the deficit was EUR 19.3 bn in 2011), even though the two parties have formally committed themselves to increasing overall bilateral trade to 80 billion in the context of a progressive rebalancing32. So far Italy has lacked the capacity to fully exploit the opportunities offered by the Chinese economy. The asynchrony of opportunities for Italian companies was to an extent inevitable, given that key national manufacturers – specialized in the production and export of consumer goods generally identified as “Made in Italy” – were unable to tap into any sizeable demand for their products in a market that has long been rather modest in size and comparatively underdeveloped with respect to its consumption patterns. In 2010, the PRC33, besides being the recipient of an already modest 2.54 percent of total Italian exports, was the final destination of only 1.63 percent of total “Made in Italy” exports worldwide. While on average “Made in Italy” products contributed some 40.46 percent to total Italian exports in 2010, the relevant quota for the PRC was just 26.02 percent 34. It is therefore unsurprising that Italy should rank tenth among world importers of Chinese goods, with 2 percent of total Chinese exports flowing into the country, while it is only the twentieth largest exporter to the PRC, capturing 0.9 percent of the Chinese market in 201135. For the most part, Italy’s as yet feeble footprint in the Chinese market is owed to capital goods, especially machinery, which accounted for some 48.84 percent of Italian export to China in 2010, as investigated in greater detail in Giorgio Prodi’s contribution to this collection. The asymmetrical competition endured by the Italian manufacturing sector, coupled with a partly structural asynchrony of opportunities determined by the peculiar configuration of the Chinese market, resulted in a pervasive wave of restructuring among Italian companies36. This socially painful process was made inevitable by the transfer of sovereign prerogatives from Eurozone countries to EU institutions in the realm of monetary policy, precluding Rome’s traditional policy response to the declining competitiveness of Italian manufacturers, the devaluation of the lira. The 7 ensuing response by Italian producers has been discussed in literature as a strategy of arroccamento37, entailing a defensive re-positioning of producers within the same sectors but at a progressively higher quality – and price – end. An analysis of Trade Performance Index38 data offers initial statistical evidence of the relative success of this restructuring process: in 2009 Italy remained leader in terms of global competitiveness in traditional “Made in Italy” sectors such as textiles, leather, and clothing, and it ranked second in the fields of electronic components, non-electronic machinery, and low-tech manufacturing. Debate in Italy is lively as to the sustainability of these results and, more generally, on the future of a national economy relying increasingly on leadership positions in niche markets. On the one hand, there is a diffuse fear that Italy may become marginal in the face of the shift toward higher-end, value-added production in advanced emerging economies such as China. On the other, several observers note that Chinese competition in traditional sectors has not waned, and indeed is bound to become more acute, given a growing specialization – not differentiation – of China’s exports39. With the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 Italy-China economic relations have gained momentum beyond the trade dimension. In Italy, the sudden credit contraction and subsequent deterioration of public finances led to a liquidity crisis that came close to endangering the very solvency of the state (and of most banks, heavily exposed to government treasuries). Contextually, Beijing’s prompt and effective reaction to the severe deterioration of the world economy projected China to a new global standing, highlighting a discontinuity vis-à-vis the previous phase that had long been in the making and could now be fully appreciated. The PRC thus emerged not only as an increasingly pivotal market, but also, crucially, as a key source of outward investment in both the public and private sector. Although the precise contours of Beijing’s exposure to the Italian sovereign debt are not publicly known – and to a degree may well be utterly impossible to determine40 –, the indirect influence that China exerts on Italy, and on Europe more broadly, at this juncture is significant. The clear preference shown by Chinese authorities for investments in debt securities guaranteed at the European (rather than national) level impacts on the debate developing within the European Union on the structural reforms that countries such as Italy are called upon to implement. As the necessity for a more comprehensive integration of the Eurozone – whose material constitution is already being remodeled, albeit without a clear outcome in the horizon – is now recognized by all major European leaders, Beijing’s financial leverage is set to remain a crucial factor in the complex political−economic equation that will shape the future of the Union and its member states. Global and European negotiations tackling the Eurozone crisis reverberate on the dynamics of Chinese investments in the Italian economy. On the one hand, Chinese institutional investors have indicated their preference for direct investments channeled through mechanisms such as the Fondo Strategico Italiano (Italian Strategic Fund), established in 2011 to promote the development of strategic national enterprises, and controlled by Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, a state-owned entity managing national postal savings. On the other, by declining to deploy any especially substantial degree of liquidity in the Italian sovereign debt market in the absence of European guarantees, Beijing indirectly amplifies European calls for Rome to implement structural reforms 8 that may strengthen the stability of the whole Eurozone and facilitate the next steps in European integration. These tensions, coupled with a rather unfavorable business environment 41 , help explain Italy’s disappointing performance as a destination of Chinese OFDI. The total stock of PRC investment in the country remains low: USD 223.8 million in 2010, or 1.79 percent of China’s total stock in the EU, which itself accounts for only 3.94 percent of the PRC’s global ODFI stock42. Flows data are also telling: while Chinese OFDI flows to Italy grew at an annual average of 21 percent between 2008 and 2010, in line with a general trend that sees China on course to become one of the world’s top investors43, the average for the whole of the European Union in the same period was 157 percent 44. Initial research investigating the volumes and logics of Chinese investments in Italy allows to switch perspective and grasp one of the transforming influences that Italy may exercise over China. In line with what is observed at the European level, Chinese investments in Italy are implemented not only with the aim of penetrating Europe’s single market, but also to gain access to superior technologies, production processes, and human capital45. Such “strategic assets” are increasingly targeted through the acquisition of companies that are highly competitive in their niches, but suffer from financial weakness or have a long-standing practice of cooperation with the Chinese investor. The 2011/2012 European Business in China Position Paper published by the European Union’s Chamber of Commerce in China argues that the learning effects that may result from an enhanced interaction between Chinese and European companies can make a crucial contribution to achieving the sustainability goals mandated by the Twelfth five-year program. In the specific case of Italy, a further transferable competence entails local governance practices and the development of industrial districts and rural productive clusters, which are of prime importance for Chinese authorities searching for new tools to manage their micro-enterprises46. One final tendency which is likely to be strengthened by the combined effect of the policy recommendations contained in the Twelfth five-year program and the structural consequences of the global financial crisis regards the rebalancing of China’s economy through increased domestic consumption. The transformation of consumption incentives and patterns are expected to open an unprecedented window of opportunity, mitigating the asynchrony that has so far characterized trade relations between Italy and the PRC. The research department of Confindustria, Italy’s business association, estimates that private consumption in the PRC could grow from 36 percent of GDP in 2010 (nominal value) to 45 percent within five years, reaching 50 percent by 2020. In this context, consumption by the more affluent segment of Chinese society would escalate from USD 981 billion in 2010 (2.6 percent of total world consumption) to 2,442 bn in 2015 (5.4 percent), and 5,575 bn in 2020 (over 10 percent of the world total)47. This trend, combined with the increasingly central role played by women in the societies of emerging countries, is particularly promising for Italian producers of consumer goods falling in the category of “affordable luxury”, which comprises food, furniture, footwear, apparel and accessories made with quality materials and design but not conceived only for niche consumption. Sales of such goods, accounting for 14 percent of Italian exports in 2009, is expected to grow by approximately 46 percent in constant prices between 2009 and 2015, with some half of this growth being generated in non-OECD countries, and especially in China.48 9 Revitalizing the bilateral strategic partnership: ambitions and constraints “Italy has traditionally lacked a comprehensive foreign policy towards China and attempts at systematically pursuing one remain in their infancy.49” In 2013 this somber assessment still captures a fundamental quality of the relationship: Italy is only very slowly adjusting to a reality in which China will no longer lie at the periphery of its strategic horizon. Tellingly, claims of a deficit in terms of a “comprehensive approach” to East Asia were featuring prominently as early as in 1899, in parliamentary debates which prompted the resignation of one of the very first Cabinets of united Italy precisely on the grounds of severe failures in its China policy.50 To this day, even though the end of the Cold war and the dynamics of globalization have accelerated an irresistible drift of the epicenter of the international system towards the Asia-Pacific, this very region remains the least engaged by apical figures of the Italian state. Though hardly the only measure of a country’s attention and dedication to its partners, high-level visits are essential to promoting reciprocal trust, especially in areas of the world where there is little history of bilateral contacts and relatively scarce population of Italian origin – and where greater self-awareness and self-confidence are fostered by an increasingly manifest economic potential51. An examination of the Statistical Yearbook of the Italian Foreign Ministry shows that in the years 1999-2011 official visits from the Asia-Pacific region to Italy at the level of Heads of State, Heads of Government or Foreign Ministers have consistently been the least numerous of all, hardly reaching 10 percent of the total. Figure 1. Visits at Head of State, Head of Government or Foreign Minister level from and to countries in the Asia-Pacific region (percentage over total number of visits in the year). Source: author’s calculations based on Ministero degli Affari Esteri, Annuario Statistico (Statistical Yearbook) (Rome: various years). 10 Figures concerning high-level visits from China, however, need to be evaluated with special care: the State hierarchy is only one component of the Chinese leadership; in fact, between 2010 and 2012 six of the nine members of the Standing Committee of the XVII CCP Central Committee – the supreme political body in the Chinese PartyState – stopped in Rome, including the would-be Secretary General of the CCP and President of the PRC Xi Jinping in 2011. Such unusually intense level of attention on China’s part is widely understood52 to be a recognition of Rome’s consistency with respect to several contentious dossiers, on which Italy has demonstrated willingness and capacity to maintain a predictable and favorable attitude. While the critical views aired by some prominent public figures – including former Treasury supremo Giulio Tremonti’s characterisation of the PRC as pursuing imperialistic strategies to Europe’s detriment53 – had raised concerns among Chinese officials54, the narrative of the political boom-and-bust cycles that would have affected Italy’s relations with China in the 2000s was finally shelved by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi as he expressed his determination to “keep enhancing the bilateral dialogue”55 during the 2010 celebration for the 40th anniversary of the normalization of bilateral ties. In fact, while Italy’s engagement with China has been described as suffering from a “pendulum syndrome” in recent years – with Romano Prodi’s center-left administrations (1996-1998 and 2006-2008) much more sensitive to Italy's projection towards China compared with Silvio Berlusconi’s governments (1994-1996, 20012006, and 2008-2011) – the actual record is more nuanced56. Prodi's commitment to improving relations with China – an orientation he would keep during his term as President of the European Commission (1999-2004) – was underlined by his highprofile visits to the country, where he remains a cherished interlocutor on global issues at the highest levels. His second government is especially credited with increasing the funding provided for Italy's participation to the 2010 Shanghai World Expo – where the prominence of the Italian pavilion was such that local authorities eventually chose to preserve it as a permanent window on the Italian lifestyle –, but also with a decisive action to stimulate Beijing to raise China’s profile in the Middle East by committing to an increase of its peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Berlusconi's record is more mixed: in November 2003, during a trip to Beijing in his capacity as President of the Council of the European Union, he devoted a mere 12 hours to discussing bilateral relations with his counterparts, the shortest ever time afforded to China by a foreign leader57. The official launch of the strategic partnership between Italy and China, however, took place in 2004 under his administration and he was personally responsible for accelerating the transformation of the mindset which had until then prevailed in Italy’s foreign policy establishment. During his tenure as interim Foreign Minister from January to November 2002, he advocated a servicesand promotion-oriented diplomacy,58 a cultural but also operational shift from which the Italian embassy and consulates in China benefited significantly in terms of human and financial resources. With a total staff of 73, in 2011 the Italian embassy in Beijing had almost doubled its size compared to a decade earlier to become technically the largest in the Italian network, though ranking fourth in terms of resident diplomats (8, vis-à-vis 16 in Washington, 12 in Berlin and 9 in Moscow). Similarly, personnel in Italian consulates in China (Shanghai, Canton, and Hong Kong) increased from 38 units in 1999 to 84 in 2011, the largest concentration in the world but for the United States. The outcome of this build-up in terms of increased dynamism in bilateral 11 exchanges is captured by the statistics regarding visas, which have increased tenfold in the space of twelve years, from 24,787 in 1999 to 253,306 in 201159. At the political level, from Beijing’s perspective, the strategic partnership signed by the two countries is especially valuable in light of Italy’s position on key dossiers such as the “One China policy,” the situation in Xinjiang and Tibet, and the issue of human rights. On the first ground, despite the presence of a sizeable – if not particularly vociferous – parliamentary group of “friends of Taiwan” since 1994, the Italian Government has essentially maintained a favorable view of China’s positions, except for the disputes in the South and East China seas, where Rome recommends negotiated solutions. As to the internal dynamics in the restless provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang, Italian pronouncements have recurrently emphasized the protection of cultural and religious rights – in line with the sensitivities expressed by Parliament (Figure 2) – while avoiding references to possible institutional arrangements based on local autonomy. This attitude, synthesized in the formula “understanding before passing judgment,”60 and appreciated in Beijing as a measure of respect for the internal affairs of the country, is manifest in the field of human rights too. While Italy’s behavior in this realm has been criticized in some quarters61, its approach is regarded with interest in China, and attempts are under way to pursue future bilateral Italo-Chinese dialogues on human rights within the context of regular political consultations between top-level diplomatic officials – itself a new format that is currently being negotiated by the two sides. This attempted upgrade of the bilateral political dialogue, premised on a sustained revitalization of the Italy-China Governmental Committee as the pivotal mechanism energizing the strategic partnership, is at the heart of the current Italian agenda for the development of bilateral ties. In the absence of political impulse and support from Parliament – including the more relevant Commissions62 –, and given the relatively broad guidelines offered by subsequent governments in terms of the core interests to be pursued in Italy’s China policy, it is hardly surprising that the potential of the strategic partnership has only partially been tapped. The Italian side has mostly leveraged it to engage Beijing on two sets of priorities: the state of bilateral economic relations, and the reform of the United Nations Security Council. On the first ground, a Triennial Action Plan was signed in 2010 with the objective to bring trade levels to EUR 80 billion by 2015 in the context of a progressively more equitable balancesheet, given the worrisome deficit suffered by Italy, as analyzed in greater detail in the previous section. A substantial increase in investments is also pursued, both through the promotion of improved conditions for Chinese private investors in Italy, and by means of a consistent engagement with the Chinese sovereign wealth funds. With regards to the UN, China’s convergence with Italy’s position is a strategic asset: based on the country’s standing as the sixth-largest contributor to the UN regular budget and its intense commitment to UN peace-keeping operations (1,121 personnel on the ground, the largest number from any Western nation),63 Italian diplomats play a central role in the United for Consensus group, which opposes a “quick-fix” enlargement of the number of permanent seats in the Council. In Rome’s view, the value of the bilateral strategic partnership should be enhanced precisely by broadening the scope of the agenda treated in the framework of the ItalyChina Governmental Committee, which should grow to cover themes related to global governance and regional crises. The aim is for a regular convening of the Committee 12 at the presence of the two Ministers of Foreign Affairs. Whether the new head of the PRC’s diplomacy, Wang Yi, will in 2013 reciprocate the visit paid to Beijing by Minister Franco Frattini in 2011, and thus underwrite the ostensibly shared ambition to maintain a good regularity in the work of the Italy-China Governmental Committee, will be an important indicator of the attitude of the new Chinese government towards Italy and, to an extent, the whole European Union. In China’s view, in fact, a key underlying value in the strategic partnership with Italy is linked to Rome’s influence as a founding and committed member of the European Union, and the direction for further development of the bilateral ties entails a positioning of the Sino-Italian partnership as an increasingly proactive force in the broader context of EU-China relations. Here, Italy has tended to play a mitigating role with respect to the more rigid European positions on two focal dossiers: the attribution of the Market Economy Status to China and the lifting of the decades-old arms embargo. The first issue is increasingly reputational in nature and is steadily losing salience, as China’s WTO accession protocol allows WTO members to treat China as a “nonmarket economy” only until 2016. In the second case, Italy was among the more committed advocates of a discontinuation of the embargo in the mid2000s, although unanimity among EU member states failed to materialize, partially owing to Washington’s forceful objections. Looking ahead, in the short term, Beijing’s commitment to pursuing an enhancement of its partnership with Rome is likely to be a function of Italy’s capacity to steer itself to the virtuous end of the asset/liability spectrum against which the country has been assessed since the beginning of Eurozone crisis in 2009. Failure to design a sustainable path for the state finances – and, indeed, for society at large, at a time of severe fragmentation in the domestic economic and socio-political fabric – would cripple Rome’s already enfeebled international standing, and once again cast Italy as the potential detonator of a systemic upheaval in Europe. In this context, two influential intervening variables with regards to Sino-Italian relations will be constituted by the attitudes towards China held by the general public and Parliament. Although its influence on the country’s foreign policy is generally limited (except for sporadic episodes of mobilization)64, Italian public opinion tends not to be particularly warm towards China: statistical surveys conducted in recent years consistently show that Italians largely share a negative view of China and its economic relationship with Italy, nor do they seem to perceive a commonality of values with Chinese society at large65. This tendency is reflected – indeed magnified – in Parliamentary proceedings: during the course of the XVI Legislature (2008-2012), the vast majority of the 128 interrogations, motions, and orders of the day which were tabled before the full Chambers and relevant commissions having China as their subject focused on eminently negative aspects. In wholly bipartisan fashion, Deputies and Senators from different political groupings focused on unfair competition and scarce protection of property rights, threats to the safety of the public, and illicit activities conducted by Chinese citizens on the Italian soil in 39 percent of cases, with a further 41 percent of their time devoted to freedom of religion in China, to the handling of local dissidents and censorship, and to the specific situations concerning Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan. 13 Figure 2. China-related resolutions, orders of the day, and written and oral questions (Interrogazioni) raised before relevant commissions and the full Chambers of the Italian Parliament, XVI Legislature (April 29, 2008 – December 22, 2012). Source: author’s calculations based on the online archives of the proceedings of the Chamber of Deputies (Camera dei Deputati) and the Senate of the Republic (Senato della Repubblica). Figure 3. Severe (YES vs. NO) + mild (YES or NO vs. ABSTAINED) divergence in Italy's voting behaviour vis-à-vis P5 countries in percentage over total number of votes at the United Nations Human Rights Council. Source: author’s calculations based on the online archives of the United Nations Human Rights Council. 14 In the longer term, the distance perceived by the Italian public vis-à-vis China’s projected value-system – a sentiment which turns out to have a substantive political echo in Italy’s voting behavior at the UN Human Rights Council (Figure 3) – may resonate at a strategic level too, in keeping with the very ontology of the European project. The EU is cast as a “civilian power” not for any abstract repudiation of military force as a tool in international relations, but rather for its aim to “civilize” international anarchy through the transposition on an international scale of the principles, processes, and codes of conduct inherent to domestic democratic politics66. In this sense the EU’s most accomplished expression, as emphasized by President Napolitano during his 2010 speech at the CCP Central Party School, is the legalization of supranational governance practices. Whether and how this approach – historically favored by Italy 67 – can be fruitfully reconciled with the realpolitik strategic culture that remains entrenched in Beijing are likely to be defining questions for both the freshly-installed Chinese leadership and the new officials who will be called at the helm of the fast-changing European institutions as from 2014. 1 Research for this paper was conducted during the period September 15, 2010 December 20, 2012 and benefited from grants by the Department of Political Studies of the University of Torino, the Torino World Affairs Institute (T.wai), and the Australian Centre for China in the World (CIW) of the Australian National University, in conjunction with the China Research Centre, University of Technology Sydney. I am grateful to Maurizio Marinelli for his hospitality at the CRC. All 39 1.5 hour face-to-face research interviews with relevant officials and academics in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Brussels, Washington DC and Rome were conducted by the author. 2 One of the very first public engagements of the newly-installed seven members of the Standing Committee of the XVIII CCP Central Committee on November 29, 2012 was a joint visit of the “Road Toward Renewal” exhibition at the National Museum of China in Beijing. On the relevance of the theme of “Rejuvenation” see Research Center for the Theoretical System of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics of the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, “Socialism and National Rejuvenation,” Qiushi Journal (English edition), 2, no. 2 (2010), http://english.qstheory.cn/politics/201109/t20110924_112495.htm, accessed November 10, 2012. 3 See Janet Abu-Lughod, Before European Hegemony: The World System AD 1250−1350 (New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989). 4 André Gunder Frank, ReOrient (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1998). 5 Sergio Zoli, La Cina e l’età dell’illuminismo in Italia (China and the age of Enlightenment in Italy) (Bologna: Pàtron, 1974), 236. 6 Chen Xiaomei, Acting the Right Part. Political Theater and Popular Drama in Contemporary China (Honolulu: University of Hawai’i Press, 2002), p. 93; Giuliano Bertuccioli, “Echi del Risorgimento in Cina,” Il Veltro, 5-6 (1961): 155-170. 15 7 Liang Qichao, Yidali jianguo sanjie zhuan (Biographies of the three heroes who made Italy), in Liang Qichao quanji, ed. Yang Gang and Wang Xiangyi (Beijing: Beijing chubanshe, 1999), vol. XI, 1-2. 8 Lloyd E. Eastman, The Abortive Revolution: China under Nationalist Rule, 19271937 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1974), 39-40. 9 Maria Hsia Chang, “Fascism and Modern China,” The China Quarterly, 79 (1979): 565. 10 Sergio Romano, “Italian Foreign Policy After the End of the Cold War,” Journal of Modern Italian Studies 14, no. 1 (2009): 8. 11 Pierre Bourdieu, “Social Space and Symbolic Power,” Sociological Theory 7, no. 1 (1989): 23. 12 See on this Shi Zhiyu and Shih Chih-Yu, China’s Just World: The Morality of Chinese Foreign Policy (Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1993); Allen Carlson and Ren Xiao, New Frontiers in China’s Foreign Relations (Lanham: Lexington Books, 2011), chapter 1. 13 Interview with Chinese officials in Rome and scholars in Beijing, July 14, 2011 and November 26, 2012. 14 Information Office of the PRC State Council, “China’s Peaceful Development,” (Beijing: 2011), http://english.gov.cn/official/2011-03/31/content_1835499.htm, accessed December 3, 2012. 15 Tanina Zappone, “Attività diplomatiche nei decenni,” Sulla Via del Catai, 5, 2011: 107. On Deng Xiaoping’s “Southern tour talks” (nanxun tanhua) and their relevance in relaunching the policies of economic reform and opening up in post-Tian’an men China, see Richard Baum, Burying Mao: Chinese Politics in the Age of Deng Xiaoping (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994), 341 and following. 16 A testimony to the resilience of such personal relationships in the Chinese context is contained in the Report by the Parliamentary Commission on the Investigation of the Cooperation and Development Policies with Developing Countries (Commissione Parlamentare d’inchiesta sull’attuazione della politica di cooperazione con i Paesi in via di sviluppo), session held on October 25, 1995, discussing a mission to China and Vietnam pursued in July 1995: the Honorable Deputy Bergamo expresses his surprise in having come across pictures of former Foreign Minister Gianni De Michelis during his meetings at the Embassies of China and Vietnam in Rome; the pictures were exposed prominently, although De Michelis had by then been out of office for three years, and was fighting several corruption charges in the courts; http://www.senato.it/service/PDF/PDFServer/DF/57941.pdf, accessed October 24, 2012. 17 Richard H. Solomon, Chinese Negotiating Behavior: Pursuing Interests Through ‘Old Friends’ (Washington DC: US Institute of Peace Press, 1999), 32; Lucian W. Pye, The Spirit of Chinese Politics (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1992), 212 and following. 18 Simona Piattoni, Le virtù del clientelismo: una critica non convenzionale (Rome-Bari: Laterza, 2007). 19 Commissione Parlamentare d’inchiesta, 5. 20 Interviews conducted in Beijing and Shanghai, various dates, February and November 2012. 21 This section is drawn from Giovanni Andornino, “The Political Economy of Italy's Relations with China,” The International Spectator 47, no. 2, 87-101. 22 World Bank statistics: http://data.worldbank.org, last accessed February 10, 2013. 23 Eurostat and WTO trade data (see Press Release 598, 26 March 2010). ISTAT data for 2009 show that 77 percent of total added value for the manufacturing sector is concentrated in the export sector. 24 World Bank data. High-end manufacture includes R&D-intensive goods, generated in sectors such as aerospace, information technology, pharmaceuticals and electronics. 25 In terms of overall national expenditure for research and development (GERD), the research inventory promoted by ERAWATCH for the EU’s Directorate General for Research 16 estimates that Italy invested 1.27 percent of GDP in 2009, with an annual average growth of 1 percent in the period 1995−2007. Germany, while reporting similar growth, now stands at 2.82 percent, while the European Union average for the 27 states is 2.01 percent. 26 Barry Naughton, The Chinese Economy: Transition and Growth (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2007). 27 Beniamino Quintieri, La sfida della qualità. Il futuro delle aziende italiane sui mercati internazionali (The challenge of quality. The future of Italian companies in international markets) (Rome: Fondazione Manlio Masi per il Comitato Leonardo, 2007), 910. 28 ISTAT, “Commercio estero e attività internazionali delle imprese. Annuario 2010 (Foreign trade and international activities of Italian companies. 2010 Yearbook),” Rome: 2011. 29 Giorgia Giovannetti, Marco Sanfilippo and Margherita Velucchi, “The ‘China effect’ on Italian exports,” working paper 8 (Rome: Fondazione Manlio Masi, 2011), 16. 30 Data from the statistics section of the European Central Bank website, http://www.ecb.int/stats/html/index.en.html, accessed October 10, 2012; Marc Labonte and Wayne Morrison, “China’s currency: an analysis of the economic issues” (Washington DC: Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, August 2011). 31 OCSE, “China’s emergence as a market economy: achievements and challenges”, working paper for the China Development Forum, Beijing: 20−21 March 2011. 32 Data from the 2011-2012 Report on Italy in the international economy (“L’Italia nell’economia internazionale. Rapporto 2011-2012”) by the Italian Trade Commission; http://www.ice.gov.it/statistiche/pdf/Rapporto_ICE_2011-2012.pdf, accessed January 26, 2013. On the Three-year Action Plan (2010−2013), see Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs press release archives, “Piano d’azione triennale 2010-2013 sul rafforzamento della cooperazione economica tra l’Italia e la China”, Rome: 2010, http://www.esteri.it/MAE/IT/Sala_Stampa/ArchivioNotizie/Approf_PostingDettaglio/2010/10 /20101007_Piano_azione_triennale.htm, accessed January 20, 2013. 33 All data on bilateral trade in this paper do not include the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau. 34 Statistics compiled by the author using UN Comtrade data (online database). 35 2011-2012 Report on Italy in the international economy, 182. 36 On this topic see also Alessia Amighini and Stefano Chiarlone, “Rischi dell’integrazione commerciale cinese per il modello di specializzazione internazionale dell’Italia, (Risks from China’s integration in international trade for Italy’s model of specialization),” LIUC Paper no. 150, “Economia e Impresa (Economy and Enterprise)” series, no. 37, June 2004 supplement. 37 Beniamino Quintieri, “Declino o cambiamento? Il (ri)posizionamento dell’industria italiana sui mercati internazionali (Decline or change? The re-positioning of Italian industry in international markets)”, in “Trasformazioni dell’industria italiana, quaderni di discussione dell’Istituto di Studi e Analisi Economica, (Transformations of the Italian industry, discussion papers of the Instute for Economic Studies and Analysis)” December 2007, 75. 38 The Trade Performance Index is jointly developed by the World Trade Organization and the United Nations. 39 See Mary Amiti and Caroline Freund, “An Anatomy of China’s Export Growth,” in China’s Growing Role in World Trade, ed. Robert Feenstra and Shang Jin Wei (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010). 40 Figures ranging between 4 percent and 13 percent of overall Italian treasuries have been quoted in the press and by officials interviewed by the author in Rome. While the lower estimate is considered plausible, a specific request for information made in Parliament during question time in May 2011 (ref: 4/05269) has yet to receive formal answer by the Ministry of Economy and Finance. 17 41 The 2011 World Bank Doing Business report ranks Italy 80th in terms of ease of doing business out of the 183 surveyed economies. 42 These data are contained in the 2010 statistical bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment, by the PRC Ministry of Commerce, http://images.mofcom.gov.cn/hzs/accessory/201109/1316069658609.pdf, accessed July 10, 2012. 43 In 2010, with OFDI flows worth over USD 68 billion (the amount was 2.7 bn in 2002), Beijing was responsible for 5.2 percent of global flows, the fifth-largest investor worldwide. Data from the PRC Ministry of Commerce and UNCTAD, World Investment Report (Geneva: 2011). 44 Embryonic studies on the subject show that only a small minority of Chinese multinationals operating in Italy does not encounter significant difficulties. See Valeria Gattai, “Dissecting Chinese ODI: Dragon Multinationals in Italy,” working paper by Milan Bicocca University’s Department of Political Economics, 20. 45 Carlo Pietrobelli, Roberta Rabellotti and Marco Sanfilippo, “Emerging economic regional powers and local systems of production: new threats or new opportunities?,” PRIN 2007 working paper 10 (2010), 13-14. 46 This intent, expressed by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao during his 2011 Report on the Work of Government (zhengfu gongzuo baogao) with reference to the need to strengthen social development and improve the well-being of the people, was recently adopted by various ministries in the PRC, with the express goal of “studying foreign best practices”; http://www.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcejiedu/2011zhengcejiedu/201107/t20110704_57 0697.html, accesses November 1, 2011. 47 Manuela Marianera, “Trends in Private Consumption in China: The Development of Chinese High Income Class and Its Global Relevance,” Confindustria Centro Studi working paper (2010). This study identifies wealthy Chinese as those with an average yearly income of at least USD 30,000 (PPA 2005 estimates). 48 Confindustria, Prometeia and SACE, Esportare la dolce vita (Exporting ‘dolce vita’) (Ariccia: 2010). 49 Interviews with Italian officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Presidency of the Italian Republic, Rome, December 14, 2011. 50 The first Pelloux Cabinet (June 29, 1898 – May 14, 1899) resigned in the face of fierce parliamentary criticism of Foreign Minister Felice Canevaro’s handling of the Sanmen Bay dispute with China. For a comprehensive account of the Sanmen imbroglio see Giorgio Borsa, Italia e Cina nel secolo XIX (Milano: Edizioni di Comunità, 1961), 151 and following. 51 The weak track-record of official visits by Italian Prime Ministers to China has been quoted by the totality of Chinese scholars and officials interviewed in China and Rome as the single most important factor holding back further development in bilateral ties. 52 Interview with Italian officials in Washington and Rome, various dates, NovemberDecember 2010. 53 Giulio Tremonti, La paura e la speranza (Fear and hope) (Milan: Mondadori, 2010), 33. 54 Interview with Chinese official in Rome, July 14, 2011. 55 See the online archive of the PRC Embassy in Rome, http://it.chinaembassy.org/ita/zygx/t760303.htm, accessed October 27, 2012. 56 Valter Coralluzzo, “Italy’s Foreign Policy Toward China: Missed Opportunities and New Chances,” Journal of Modern Italian Studies 13, no. 1 (2008): 6-24. 57 While this information cannot be verified, this fact is widely remarked upon by Chinese officials; interviews with Chinese officials in Beijing, November 26-28, 2012. 58 Giampiero Massolo, “Il diplomatico nell’era della globalizzazione e dell’informatizzazione: ruolo, competenze e preparazione (The diplomat in the era of globalization and informatization: role, competences and preparation),” La comunità internazionale, 2 (2007): 237-247. 18 59 Ministero degli Affari Esteri, Annuario Statistico (Statistical Yearbook) (Rome: various years). 60 This well-established approach was confirmed on the occasion of the speech given by President of the Republic Giorgio Napolitano before the CCP Central Party School during his State visit to China on October 26, 2010; http://www.quirinale.it/elementi/Continua.aspx?tipo=3&key=1988, accessed March 2, 2013. 61 One instance of such criticisim is contained in the latest “European Foreign Policy scorecard 2013” by the European Council of Foreign Relations, http://www.ecfr.eu/scorecard/2013/china/6, accessed March 4, 2013. 62 Interview with ranking members of the Foreign Relations Commission of the Senate of the Republic, May 15, 2012. 63 See UN Resolution 67/238 on the Scale of assessments for the apportionment of the expenses of the United Nations and the UN Peacekeeping Fact Sheet, respectively at http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=a/res/67/238 and http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/contributors/2013/jan13_1.pdf, accessed March 4, 2013. 64 Filippo Andreatta and Christopher Hill, “Italy,” in The European Union and National Defence Policy, ed. Jolyon Howorth and Anand Menon, (London: Routledge, 1997), 81. 65 See the Transatlantic Trends report by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, 2010 to 2012 (http://trends.gmfus.org, accessed January 4, 2013), but also Pew Global Attitudes Project, Key Indicators Database, 2007 and 2012 data (http://www.pewglobal.org/database/?indicator=24&country=107&response=Favorable, accessed March 5, 2013). 66 Henning Tewes, “How civilian? How much power? Germany and the Eastern enlargement of NATO,” in Germany as a civilian power? The foreign policy of the Berlin Republic, ed. Sebastian Harnisch and Hanns Maull (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2001), 10. 67 Antonio Missiroli, “Italy”, in The Foreign Policies of European Union Member States, ed. Ian Manners and Richard Whitman (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2000), 87104. 19
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