Working Paper
The Role of the Political Economy on State
Laws Related to Medical Marijuana
Priscillia Hunt and Clinton Saloga
RAND Health and RAND Justice, Infrastructure and Environment
WR-1004-NIDA
June 2013
Prepared for National Institute on Drug Abuse
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Preface
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Abstract
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YDOXHVZHUHH[WUDSRODWHGDVWKHDYHUDJHRIWKH±ILJXUHV
7KH&KXUFK$WWHQGDQFH*DOOXSSROOGRHVQRWLQFOXGH+DZDLLRU$ODVNDDQGUHVXOWVZHUHQRWDYDLODEOH
YDOXHV ZHUH OLQHDUO\ LQWHUSRODWHG IURP DQG ILJXUHV )RU $ODVND DQG +DZDLL WKH DQG YDOXHVZHUHH[WUDSRODWHGDVWKHDYHUDJHRIWKH±ILJXUHVFKXUFKDWWHQGDQFHGDWDZHUHSURYLGHGE\
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7DEOH6XPPDU\6WDWLVWLFVRI$QDO\WLFDO6DPSOH
Variable
Mean
Std. Dev.
Min
Max
Dependent variable (proportion of state-years)
Unacceptable
0.44
Research Purposes
0.12
Pharmaceutical Framework
0.21
Home Remedy
0.05
Mixed Supply
0.18
Independent variables
Economic Freedom
6.76
0.64
5.33
8.13
Bachelor's
26.94
4.71
16.50
39.00
Income/1000
3,816
561
2,791
5,695
Urban
73.20
14.50
38.60
95.00
Republican
39.38
6.81
23.80
62.00
Elder
12.98
1.68
6.75
17.37
Church
41.41
8.84
23.00
63.00
250
N
Statistical Analysis
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HDFKFODVVRI00/V:HXVHHDFKVWDWH\HDUFRPELQDWLRQDVWKHXQLWRIDQDO\VLV:HILUVWWHVWWKH
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OLQHDU\HDUHIIHFWLPSURYHGPRGHOILW
3. Results
5HVXOWVLQ7DEOHVKRZWKHDYHUDJHPDUJLQDOHIIHFWVRQWKHSUREDELOLW\RIEHORQJLQJWRHDFK
FODVV$WWKHOHYHO5HSXEOLFDQLVSRVLWLYHO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKPHPEHUVKLSLQWKH8QDFFHSWDEOH
FODVV FROXPQ WZR ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV VWDWH\HDUV ZLWK KLJKHU SURSRUWLRQV RI 5HSXEOLFDQV KDYH
KLJKHU SUREDELOLWLHV RI D OHJDO IUDPHZRUN LQ ZKLFK WKHUH DUH QR ODZV RQ WKH ERRNV SHUPLWWLQJ
SDWLHQWV¶00XVH
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+RPH 5HPHG\ DQG 0L[HG 6XSSO\ OHJDO IUDPHZRUNV FROXPQV IRXU DQG ILYH UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH
SURSRUWLRQ RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ ZLWK DW OHDVW D %DFKHORU¶V GHJUHH LV SRVLWLYHO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK
PHPEHUVKLSLQWKH+RPH5HPHG\FODVV7KLVILQGLQJPD\EHUDWKHUVXUSULVLQJ$WDQDJJUHJDWH
OHYHO D KLJKHU SURSRUWLRQ RI HGXFDWHG SHRSOH LQ D VWDWH LQFUHDVHG WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI KDYLQJ D
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+RPH 5HPHG\ ODZV 7KLV PD\ VLPSO\ EH LQGLFDWLYH RI DQ LQWHUHVWLQJ VHW RI SUHIHUHQFHV ZKHUH
ULFKHU VWDWHV GR QRW VXSSRUW +RPH 5HPHG\ SURYLVLRQV EXW PRUH KLJKO\ HGXFDWHG VWDWHV GR
$QRWKHU H[SODQDWLRQ LV WKDW LQFRPH DQG HGXFDWLRQ DUH FRUUHODWHG YDULDEOHV WKXV FRQIODWLQJ WKH
UHVXOWV
3HUKDSVXQH[SHFWHGO\FKXUFKDWWHQGDQFHLVVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWDQGSRVLWLYHO\DVVRFLDWHG
ZLWK KDYLQJ D 5HVHDUFK 3XUSRVHV IUDPHZRUN FROXPQ WKUHH $GGLWLRQDOO\ FKXUFK DWWHQGDQFH LV
QHJDWLYHO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKKDYLQJD3KDUPDFHXWLFDORUD0L[HG6XSSO\IUDPHZRUNFROXPQVIRXU
DQG VL[ UHVSHFWLYHO\ 2QH H[SODQDWLRQ ZH SURYLGH LV UHODWHG WR WKH SURSHQVLW\ WR YRWH 6LQFH
FKXUFKDWWHQGDQFHLVVWURQJO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKDKLJKHUSUREDELOLW\RIYRWLQJ*HUEHU*UXEHU
+XQJHUPDQ DQ\ GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI 00/V RQ YRWLQJ EDOORWV FDQ LQIOXHQFH
RXU UHVXOWV )RU H[DPSOH LI VWDWHV ZLWK JUHDWHU FKXUFK DWWHQGDQFH ZHUH PRUH OLNHO\ WR KDYH D
UHVHDUFK VWDWXWH RQ WKHLU EDOORWV VLQFH WKH\ DUH DOVR VWDWHV ZLWK JUHDWHU OHYHOV RI YRWLQJ WKH
SUHIHUHQFHVRIFKXUFKDWWHQGHHVLVPRUHSUHYDOHQWLQRXUDQDO\VLV
7KHUH DUH PRUH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW ILQGLQJV IRU WKH YDULRXV SROLWLFDO HFRQRPLF
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG EHORQJLQJ WR WKH 0L[HG 6XSSO\ IUDPHZRUN 6SHFLILFDOO\ WKH HFRQRPLF
IUHHGRP LQGH[ SURSRUWLRQ RI 5HSXEOLFDQ5HSXEOLFDQ OHDQLQJ DGXOWV SURSRUWLRQ RI HOGHUO\
SRSXODWLRQDQGSURSRUWLRQRIDGXOWVDWWHQGLQJFKXUFKDUHVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWDWWKHOHYHO
DQGQHJDWLYHO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKKDYLQJD0L[HG6XSSO\IUDPHZRUN
7DEOH$YHUDJH0DUJLQDO(IIHFWVRQ3UREDELOLW\RI00/HJDO&ODVV$IILOLDWLRQ
Class of MML
Unacceptable
Research
Pharmaceutical
Home Remedy
Mixed Supply
Economic Freedom
0.1224
(0.0764)
-0.0991
(0.0606)
0.1033*
(0.0535)
-0.0236
(0.0209)
-0.1031***
(0.0207)
Bachelor’s
-0.0135
(0.0162)
-0.0031
(0.0195)
-0.0050
(0.0094)
0.0226***
(0.0039)
-0.0010
(0.0027)
Income/1000
-0.0013
(0.0116)
0.0204
(0.0131)
0.0138*
(0.0071)
-0.0142***
(0.0028)
-0.0186***
(0.0030)
Urban
-0.0052
(0.0047)
0.0084*
(0.0046)
-0.0048
(0.0037)
-0.0010
(0.0007)
0.0025***
(0.0008)
0.0241***
(0.0079)
-0.0143*
(0.0082)
-0.0019
(0.0060)
0.0037**
(0.0016)
-0.0116***
(0.0037)
Elderly
0.0677**
(0.0287)
-0.0447
(0.0280)
0.0227
(0.0205)
0.0007
(0.0090)
-0.0464***
(0.0086)
Church Attendance
-0.0014
(0.0092)
0.0328***
(0.0098)
-0.0098**
(0.0044)
-0.0020
(0.0022)
-0.0196***
(0.0016)
250
250
250
250
250
Republican
Observations
Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses. ***p-value < 0.01, **p-value < 0.05 and *p-value< 0.10.
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Discussion
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Limitations
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JURXSV RI SHRSOH WR YRWH LQ IDYRU RI YDU\LQJ VXSSO\ PHFKDQLVPV RU ZKHWKHU KDYLQJ FHUWDLQ
00/VLQSODFHGUDZVSHRSOHWRORFDWHLQFHUWDLQDUHDV+RZHYHULWVHHPVKLJKO\XQOLNHO\WKDW
SHRSOHPRYHLQWRDQGRXWRIVWDWHVDVDUHVXOWRIDQ00/FODVVLQODUJHHQRXJKQXPEHUVDWWKH
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Conclusion
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SDUWLFXODUO\ WKH SROLWLFDO HFRQRP\ :H ILQG LQGLFDWRUV RI VWDWHV¶ SROLWLFDO HFRQRP\ GHWHUPLQH
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ILQGLQJV VXJJHVW WKDW D VWDWH¶V SROLWLFDO HFRQRP\ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQIOXHQFH WKH 00/V WKDW DUH
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5. References
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Appendix
7DEOH3DLUZLVHFRUUHODWLRQPDWUL[RILQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV
Income
Income
1.00
Elderly
Elderly
Bachelor's
Urban
Church
Republican
-0.134*
1.00
Bachelor's
0.847*
-0.194*
1.00
Urban
0.531*
-0.276*
0.515*
1.00
Church
-0.481*
-0.051
-0.503*
-0.222*
Republican
-0.565*
-0.269*
-0.557*
-0.297*
0.460*
1.00
-0.026
-0.313*
-0.079
0.057
0.378*
0.437*
Economic Freedom
*p-value < 0.05.
Economic
Freedom
1.00
1.00