The Australian Economy and
Financial Markets
Chart Pack June 2017
The Australian Economy and Financial Markets
Contents
Graphs
World Economy Australian GDP Growth and Inflation Household Sector Business Sector Credit and Money Factors of Production and Labour Market Regions and Industry Government Commodity Prices Balance of Payments and External Position Interest Rates Share Markets Bond Issuance Exchange Rates Banking Indicators 1–3
4
5–6
7–8
9
10–11
12–13
14
15
16–17
18–22
23–24
25–26
27–28
29–30
World Economy
GDP Growth – China and India
GDP Growth – World
Year-ended
%
%
Major trading partners*
Year-ended
%
6
6
%
China
12
12
4
4
World**
2
2
8
8
India
0
0
4
4
-2
-2
-4
*
**
2004
2008
2012
2016
-4
0
2005
2013
0
2017
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
Weighted using Australian export shares
PPP-weighted; accounts for 85 per cent of world GDP
Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
GDP Growth – East Asia
GDP Growth – Advanced Economies
Year-ended
2009
Year-ended
%
%
4
10
0
0
5
5
-4
-4
0
0
%
4
US
Japan
Euro area
%
Middle-income*
10
High-income**
-8
-12
-8
2005
Source: Thomson Reuters
2009
2013
-12
2017
-5
-5
-10
*
**
2005
2009
2013
-10
2017
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand; PPP-weighted
Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan; PPP-weighted
Sources: CEIC Data; IMF; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
1
World Economy
Inflation – China and India
Core Inflation – Advanced Economies*
Year-ended
Year-ended
%
%
2
2
15
15
1
1
10
10
0
5
-1
0
-2
2017
-5
%
%
US**
Euro area
0
Japan
-1
-2
*
**
2005
2009
2013
India
5
0
China
2005
2009
2013
-5
2017
Source: CEIC Data
Excluding food and energy, and for the euro area also excluding
alcohol and tobacco
Core price index for personal consumption expenditures
Source: Thomson Reuters
Unemployment Rate – Advanced Economies
Inflation – East Asia
%
%
Year-ended
%
Euro area
Middle-income*
10
10
6
US
8
8
4
4
6
Japan
2
%
2005
Source: Thomson Reuters
2009
High-income**
0
2013
2
2017
-4
*
**
2005
0
2009
2013
-4
2017
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand; PPP-weighted
Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan; PPP-weighted
Sources: CEIC Data; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
2
World Economy
China – Activity Indicators
China – Residential Property Market*
Year-ended growth
index
Manufacturing PMI*
Industrial production
%
55
20
45
10
%
Fixed asset investment
%
Real retail sales
30
20
15
10
0
2009
*
2013
2017
2009
2013
2017
0
Year-ended growth
%
%
Floor space sold
50
50
0
0
%
%
Prices
10
10
0
0
%
%
Real estate development investment**
30
30
0
0
-30
*
Diffusion index; average of the official and Caixin
Sources: CEIC Data; Markit Economics; RBA
2009
**
2011
2013
2015
2017
-30
For sales and investment, a three-month moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series is used to calculate growth
Investment by developers and other construction companies in the
development of residential property; includes land purchases
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
China – Financing*
%
Share of GDP
Total social financing flows**
2007 average = 100
index
Expenditure
Revenue
30
China – Output Indicators
%
Fiscal balance
index
Cement
Electricity
generation
15
150
150
Plate glass
Crude steel
Balance
15
0
100
0
*
**
2007
2012
2017
2007
2012
2017
Seasonally adjusted by RBA
Upper bound estimate adjusting for impact of local government bond
issuance to pay off debt previously included in TSF
100
-15
50
2009
2013
2017
2009
2013
2017
50
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
3
Australian GDP Growth and Inflation
GDP Growth
%
%
Year-ended
Consumer Price Inflation*
%
5
4
4
2
2
0
0
Quarterly
-2
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
*
%
Weighted median
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
CPI excl volatile items
1
1
*
1997
2002
2007
2012
-1
2017
2002
%
Tradable and Non-tradable Inflation*
Tradables**
4
2007
2012
0
2017
Excluding interest charges prior to the September quarter 1998 and
adjusted for the tax changes of 1999–2000
Sources: ABS; RBA
0
%
%
4
Year-ended
2
Trimmed mean
1997
(seasonally adjusted)
Excluding interest charges prior to the September quarter 1998 and
adjusted for the tax changes of 1999–2000
Sources: ABS; RBA
Underlying Inflation*
0
0
Quarterly
-1
Source: ABS
%
5
Year-ended
0
-2
%
2
0
Quarterly
(seasonally adjusted)
%
Non-tradables***
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
1997
2002
2007
2012
-2
2017
*
Adjusted for the tax changes of 1999–2000
** Excludes volatile items (fruit, vegetables & automotive fuel)
*** Excludes interest charges prior to the September quarter 1998, and
deposit & loan facilities prior to the September quarter 2011
Sources: ABS; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
4
Household Sector
Retail Sales Growth
%
%
Values
Household Income and Consumption*
%
Real, year-ended growth
10
(year-ended*)
8
8
4
4
5
5
%
%
Volumes
0
Quarterly
-5
*
2001
2005
2009
2013
-5
2017
%
Saving ratio
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
*
Percentage change over year to latest three months
Source: ABS
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
-5
Household sector includes unincorporated enterprises; disposable
income is after tax and interest payments; income level smoothed
with a two-quarter moving average between March quarter 2000 and
March quarter 2002; saving ratio is net of depreciation
Sources: ABS; RBA
Consumer Sentiment*
Private Residential Building Approvals
Monthly
’000
0
Disposable income
%
Volumes
0
10
Consumption
0
(year-ended)
%
’000
Average since 1980 = 100
index
index
20
20
Total
16
16
100
100
85
85
12
12
8
8
Detached
houses
4
4
Higher-density housing
0
1992
Source: ABS
1997
2002
2007
2012
0
2017
70
*
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
70
Average of the ANZ-Roy Morgan and Westpac-Melbourne Institute
consumer sentiment measure of respondents’ perceptions of their
personal finances relative to the previous year; ANZ-Roy Morgan
index rescaled to have the same average as the Westpac-Melbourne
Institute index since 1996
Sources: ANZ-Roy Morgan; RBA; Westpac and Melbourne Institute
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
5
Household Sector
Household Finances*
Household Wealth and Liabilities*
Per cent of household disposable income
%
Debt
%
Interest paid**
175
14
150
12
Per cent of annual household disposable income
%
Net wealth
600
600
Dwellings
450
125
10
100
8
75
6
50
*
1992
2004
2016 1992
2004
2016
4
300
Financial assets
150
0
1996
*
$b
15
25
10
20
5
15
0
0
10
-5
-5
5
-10
0
15
APM***
10
Residex*
5
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
0
Disposable income is after tax and before the deduction of interest
payments
Sources: ABS; RBA
%
ABS*
150
Liabilities
Housing Prices
%
450
300
Disposable income is after tax and before the deduction of interest
payments
** Excludes unincorporated enterprises
Sources: ABS; RBA
Year-ended growth, seasonally adjusted
%
Housing Loan Approvals
$b
25
Total
20
Owner-occupiers*
15
10
Investors**
CoreLogic**
-10
*
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
ABS is a quarterly stratified median price index; Residex is a quarterly
repeat sales price index
** Monthly hedonic price index; series breaks occurred in April 2016 and
May 2016 due to changes in methods used to calculate the index
*** Monthly stratified median price index
Sources: ABS; APM; CoreLogic; RBA; Residex
5
*
**
2005
2009
2013
0
2017
Excludes refinancing
Includes refinancing
Sources: ABS; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
6
Business Sector
Private Non-financial Corporation Profits*
Share of nominal GDP
%
%
Non-mining
12
12
8
8
Mining
4
4
0
*
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
0
Gross operating profits; inventory valuation adjusted
Sources: ABS; RBA
Business credit
Per cent of nominal GDP
Business conditions*
%
Interest paid*
Per cent of profits**
70
17
15
0
0
-15
-15
-30
-30
ppt
14
50
11
40
8
30
*
2002
2009
2016
2002
2009
2016
ppt
Business confidence*
15
15
0
0
-15
-15
-30
-30
%
Capacity utilisation
84
84
81
81
78
Average since 1989
75
72
60
ppt
15
%
Business Finances
%
NAB Business Survey
ppt
*
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
78
75
72
2017
Net balance; deviation from average since 1989
Sources: NAB; RBA
5
Interest on intermediated debt from Australian-domiciled financial
institutions
** Profits are private non-financial gross operating surplus (adjusted
for privatisations) and gross mixed income
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
7
Business Sector
Business Investment*
Capital Expenditure – Mining and Non-mining*
Share of nominal GDP
%
%
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
*
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
10
$b
Non-mining
128
128
64
64
32
32
16
16
8
8
4
4
2
91 / 92
04 / 05
17 / 18 91 / 92
04 / 05
2
17 / 18
Dots are firms' expectations for 2016/17 and 2017/18, adjusted for
historical differences between expected and realised spending
Sources: ABS; RBA
Private Non-residential Building Approvals
Business Investment Components*
%
Mining
*
Adjusted for second-hand asset transfers between the private and
other sectors
Source: ABS
Share of nominal GDP
Nominal, log scale
$b
%
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
%
Machinery and equipment
8
8
6
6
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
4
Buildings
2
2
Engineering
0
*
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
Adjusted for second-hand asset transfers between the private and
other sectors
Source: ABS
0
0
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
0
Source: ABS
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
8
Credit and Money
Credit*
Credit and Broad Money Growth
Year-ended
%
%
Ratio to nominal GDP
ratio
ratio
Broad money
20
20
15
15
10
1.4
1.1
1.1
0.8
0.8
10
Credit
5
0
1.4
1997
2001
2005
2009
5
2013
0
2017
0.5
*
1991
2001
2006
2011
2016
0.5
Not adjusted for breaks
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Credit Growth by Sector
Monetary Aggregates Growth
Year-ended
%
1996
%
Year-ended
%
M3
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
%
Housing
20
20
10
10
Business
0
0
Personal
Currency
0
1997
2001
Sources: APRA; RBA
2005
2009
2013
0
2017
-10
2001
2005
2009
2013
-10
2017
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
9
Factors of Production and Labour Market
Factors of Production
Annual growth
Net capital stock*
%
%
5
5
3
3
%
%
Working-age population
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
79 / 80
*
85 / 86
91 / 92
97 / 98
03 / 04
09 / 10
1.0
15 / 16
Wage Price Index Growth
%
Private sector
5
%
Public sector
5
Year-ended
4
4
3
3
2
2
Quarterly
1
0
1
2003
2010
2017
2003
2010
2017
0
Source: ABS
Excluding livestock & orchards, dwellings and ownership transfer costs
Sources: ABS; RBA
Unit Labour Costs Growth
Capital Ratios*
1979/80 = 100
index
index
220
220
200
200
Capital-labour ratio
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
Capital-output ratio
100
100
80
79 / 80
*
85 / 86
91 / 92
97 / 98
03 / 04
09 / 10
80
15 / 16
Capital stock excludes livestock & orchards, dwellings and ownership
transfer costs
Sources: ABS; RBA
Non-farm, year-ended
%
%
Unit labour costs
5
5
0
0
%
%
Average earnings
per hour
5
5
0
0
Labour productivity per hour
-5
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
-5
Sources: ABS; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
10
Factors of Production and Labour Market
Employment and Participation Rates
%
%
Participation rate
64
64
61
61
Employment and Hours Worked*
2008 average = 100
index
index
Employment
110
110
105
105
Total hours worked
100
100
58
58
Employment to working-age population
55
1997
2001
2005
2009
Average hours worked
95
2013
55
2017
90
2007
*
Source: ABS
2009
2011
2013
2015
95
2017
90
Smoothed lines are 13-period Henderson trends
Sources: ABS; RBA
Labour Market
%
Job Vacancies and Advertisements
%
Per cent of labour force
%
Underemployment rate*
8
%
Advertisements
(ANZ survey)
8
2.0
2.0
Vacancies*
6
6
(ABS survey)
1.5
Unemployment rate
4
1.5
4
1.0
1.0
2
2005
*
2008
2011
2014
2017
Full-time workers on reduced hours for economic reasons and
part-time workers who would like, and are available, to work more hours
Source: ABS
2
0.5
2001
2005
2009
2013
0.5
2017
*
This survey was suspended between May 2008 and November 2009
Sources: ABS; ANZ
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
11
Regions and Industry
State Share of Output*
%
%
New South Wales
35
35
30
30
Victoria
25
20
25
Queensland
15
Western Australia
10
5
90 / 91
*
95 / 96
00 / 01
10
5
0
15
%
0
New South Wales
-5
%
Western Australia
10
10
05 / 06
10 / 11
0
15 / 16
Nominal
0
%
State Unemployment Rates
Trend
%
Tasmania
8
8
South Australia
7
New South Wales
6
0
Queensland
%
South Australia
10
7
10
Victoria
5
-5
Source: ABS
%
%
5
Tasmania
0
Year-ended growth
%
20
10
South Australia
State Final Demand
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
Tasmania*
-10
*
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
-10
Adjusted for the purchase and sale of ferries in 2002
Source: ABS
6
5
5
Victoria
4
3
2
4
Queensland
3
Western Australia
2007
2012
2017 2007
2012
2017
2
Source: ABS
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
12
Regions and Industry
Industry Share of Output*
%
%
%
Industry Share of Business Investment*
%
Other business services**
50
50
Manufacturing
14
14
40
Retail and wholesale trade
10
10
Financial and insurance
services
Construction
6
Manufacturing
30
Other business
services**
6
40
Retail and
wholesale trade
Financial and
insurance services
20
Mining
Mining
30
Construction
20
Agriculture
10
10
Agriculture
2
90 / 91
*
**
95 / 96
00 / 01
05 / 06
10 / 11
2
15 / 16
Nominal gross value added
Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiring
and real estate services; professional, scientific and technical services;
administrative and support services
Source: ABS
0
90 / 91
*
**
95 / 96
00 / 01
05 / 06
10 / 11
0
15 / 16
Nominal
Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiring
and real estate services; professional, scientific and technical services;
administrative and support services
Source: ABS
Employment Growth by Industry
Cumulative change since February 2012
’000
450
’000
450
Household
services
300
Public
Retail and
wholesale trade administration
150
Business
services
300
150
Other*
0
0
Construction
-150
*
2014
Mining
2017
Manufacturing
2014
2017
-150
Includes agriculture, forestry & fishing; transport, postal & warehousing;
and electricity, gas, water & waste services
Source: ABS
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
13
Government
Australian Government Budget Balance*
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
State Budget Balances*
%
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
*
85 / 86
92 / 93
99 / 00
06 / 07
13 / 14
-5
20 / 21
Underlying cash balance; 2017/18 Budget
Source: Australian Treasury
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
*
85 / 86
91 / 92
97 / 98
03 / 04
09 / 10
Underlying cash balance
Non-financial Public Sector Net Debt
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
%
Total
3
3
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
Non-financial public sector
30
30
20
20
Australian Government
2
2
Engineering
1
1
Building
0
1991
Source: ABS
1996
-1.5
15 / 16
Source: ABS
Public Construction Work Done
%
%
2001
2006
2011
10
10
0
0
State and local general governments
2016
0
-10
90 / 91
95 / 96
00 / 01
05 / 06
10 / 11
-10
15 / 16
Source: Australian Treasury
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
14
Commodity Prices
RBA Index of Commodity Prices
Base Metals, Rural and Oil Prices
SDR, 2015/16 average = 100, log scale
index
index
Weekly
index
US$/b
190
190
160
160
150
130
130
125
100
100
100
100
75
70
70
75
50
Brent oil
50
40
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
40
2017
2012
*
2009
Iron ore
Thermal coal
(LHS)
(LHS)
Coking coal
US$/t
(RHS)
165
350
Average Australian
export price
Spot price*
120
250
75
150
*
2017
2009
2013
2017
0
Terms of Trade*
Free on board basis
2013
2013
RBA Index of Commodity Prices sub-indices; SDR terms; 2007
average = 100
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Bulk Commodity Prices
30
25
Base metals*
25
Source: RBA
US$/t
125
Rural*
2017
2013
2017
2013
2017
Iron ore fines, Newcastle thermal coal and premium hard coking coal
Sources: ABS; Bloomberg; IHS; RBA
50
2014/15 average = 100, log scale
index
index
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
*
1956
1971
1986
2001
2016
40
Annual data are used prior to 1960
Sources: ABS; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
15
Balance of Payments and External Position
Bulk Commodity Exports
Export Volumes
Quarterly, 2014/15 prices, log scale
$b
$b
Services
Resources
40
Quarterly
Mt
Iron ore
Mt
Coal
175
100
125
80
75
60
12
Rural
20
6
Manufacturing
10
2000
2008
2016
2000
2008
2016
3
25
2006
2011
Import Volumes
$b
32
Intermediate
Consumption
16
8
Services
Capital
4
Source: ABS
2009
2016
2002
30
2016
40
2009
2016
2
%
30
China
20
Japan
15
25
20
15
EU - 27
10
4
2002
Annual, share of total values
%
25
16
2
2011
Exports by Destination
Quarterly, 2014/15 prices, log scale
32
8
2006
Sources: ABS; RBA
Sources: ABS; RBA
$b
2016
10
South Korea
5
0
2000
2004
5
US
India
2008
2012
0
2016
Source: ABS
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
16
Balance of Payments and External Position
Current Account Balance
Net Capital Inflow
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
%
Net income balance
Trade balance
Per cent of nominal GDP
%
8
0
0
%
Debt
8
6
6
Total
4
4
-3
-3
2
-6
-6
1991
1996
2001
2006
0
-9
2016
2011
-2
-4
2000
Source: ABS
2004
%
Total
60
60
45
45
Long-term debt*
15
0
15
0
Equity
*
-4
2016
2004
Composition after hedging, quarterly*
$b
Gross foreign liabilities
3 000
$b
Gross foreign assets
3 000
Foreign currency
Australian dollar
2 500
2 500
2 000
2 000
1 500
1 500
1 000
1 000
30
Short-term debt*
-15
2000
2012
External Position
Net Foreign Liabilities
30
2008
Source: ABS
By type, per cent of nominal GDP
%
0
Equity
-2
Current account balance
-9
2
2008
2012
-15
2016
Short-term includes debt with residual maturity of one year or less;
long-term includes all other debt
Source: ABS
500
500
0
*
2006
2011
2006
2011
0
2016
Hedge ratios inferred from ABS Foreign Currency Exposure surveys
Sources: ABS; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
17
Interest Rates
Australian Cash Rate and 90-day Bill Yield
%
%
8
8
6
6
90-day bill yield
Cash rate
4
4
2
2
0
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
0
%
US
5
5
4
4
3
3
Euro area*
2
2
1
1
0
-1
0
Japan
2005
2008
*
2011
2014
2017
-1
Main refinancing rate until the introduction of 3-year LTROs in
December 2011; deposit facility rate thereafter
Source: Central banks
Sources: ASX; RBA
Australian Cash Rate
%
Policy Interest Rates – G3
%
%
Nominal
6
Policy Interest Rates – Selected
Advanced Economies
%
6
4
4
%
NZ
8
8
6
6
UK
2
2
Real cash rate*
0
0
4
4
2
Sweden
2
Canada
0
0
-2
*
1997
2002
2007
2012
Calculated using average of year-ended weighted median inflation
and year-ended trimmed mean inflation
Sources: ABS; RBA
-2
2017
Switzerland*
-2
2005
*
2008
2011
2014
2017
-2
Policy rate is the midpoint of the 3-month LIBOR target band
Source: Central banks
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
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Interest Rates
Interest Rates – China
%
%
1-year
benchmark lending
6
6
1-year
benchmark deposit
4
2
7-day repo
(month average)
2005
2008
%
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
4
2
0
10-year Australian Government Bond Yield
%
2011
2014
2017
0
1
Policy Interest Rates – Emerging Markets
%
Brazil
Indonesia*
%
Russia*
12
12
India
%
6
8
Malaysia
*
2013
10-year Government Bond Yields
1
2017
Thailand
South Korea
2007
2012
2017
South
Africa
4
5
2007
2012
2017
Breaks in series indicate changes in the official policy rates for Russia
(September 2013) and Indonesia (August 2016)
Source: Central banks
0
5
4
4
3
Germany
2
2
1
-1
1
Japan
0
Mexico
%
6
US
3
0
2009
6
16
3
2005
Source: RBA
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
9
2001
2001
2005
0
2009
2013
-1
2017
Source: Thomson Reuters
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
19
Interest Rates
ppt
Spread between Australian 10-year Bond
Yield and the Cash Rate
Australian Corporate Bond Yields*
%
A rated
ppt
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
8
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
8
6
Swap
AA rated
4
4
2
2
*
-6
2017
2001
2005
2009
2013
0
2017
Swap rates are for 3-year maturity; corporate bond yields are a
weighted average of senior bonds with remaining maturities of 1 to 5
years, including financial and non-financial corporations
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; UBS AG, Australia Branch
Source: RBA
Differential between Australian and
US 10-year Government Bond Yields
BBB rated
6
0
-6
%
Australian Corporate Bond Spreads*
Spread over government yields
bps
bps
bps
500
500
500
500
400
400
400
400
300
300
bps
200
200
100
100
BBB rated
300
300
A rated
200
200
0
-100
0
1992
1997
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
2002
2007
2012
-100
2017
100
Swap
0
*
2001
2005
2009
100
AA rated
2013
0
2017
Swap spreads are for 3-year maturity; corporate bond spreads are a
weighted average of senior bonds with remaining maturities of 1 to 5
years, including financial and non-financial corporations
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; UBS AG, Australia Branch
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
20
Interest Rates
US Corporate Bond Yields
%
Emerging Market Bond Yields
%
US dollar-denominated, blended yield
%
BBB corporates*
4
Europe
4
20
3
20
Latin America
3
AA corporates*
2
%
15
15
10
10
2
1
Asia
1
5
5-year swap
0
*
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
0
Includes financials and non-financials
Source: Bloomberg
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
0
2017
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Reuters
US Corporate Bond Spreads
Emerging Market Bond Spreads
To US government bonds
bps
5
300
bps
300
BBB corporates*
200
200
100
bps
To US government bonds, duration-matched
Europe
1 500
1 500
Latin America
1 200
bps
1 200
900
900
600
600
100
AA corporates*
0
0
5-year swap
-100
*
2011
2012
2013
2014
Includes financials and non-financials
2015
2016
300
300
Asia
2017
-100
0
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
0
2017
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Source: Bloomberg
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
21
Interest Rates
Australian Fixed Interest Rates
Australian Housing Lending Rates
Average interest rate on variable-rate loans
%
Banks’ indicator rate on new owner-occupier loans
10
Actual rate on
outstanding loans
%
%
10
12
8
8
6
6
Cash rate
4
4
2
0
1997
2002
2007
2012
3-year maturity
12
Small business
10
8
6
6
Swap rate
4
2
2
0
2017
0
Housing*
1997
*
%
Overdraft other security
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
Term loan residential security
1997
2002
2007
2012
Average interest rate on outstanding lending
%
Small business
0
2017
2007
2012
6
2017
%
10
10
8
8
6
6
%
Indicator rates
Sources: APRA; Canstar Cannex; RBA
2002
2
Australian Business Lending Rates*
Advertised Small Business Interest Rates*
*
4
Available to owner-occupiers
Sources: Banks’ websites; Bloomberg; Canstar Cannex; RBA
%
6
10
8
Sources: ABS; APRA; Perpetual; RBA
11
%
%
Large business
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
1997
*
2001
2005
2009
2013
2
2017
RBA estimates
Sources: APRA; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
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Share Markets
Australian and World Share Price Indices
Log scale, end December 1994 = 100
index
500
400
Advanced Economies’ Share Price Indices
index
500
400
S&P 500
300
300
200
200
Log scale, end December 1994 = 100
index
500
400
400
US
Euro area
300
index
500
300
200
200
UK
100
100
MSCI World
ASX 200
100
Japan
100
80
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
80
2017
Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI; RBA
40
1997
2005
2009
2013
40
2017
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Australian Share Price Indices*
Log scale, end December 1994 = 100
index
600
500
2001
Resources
Emerging Markets’ Share Price Indices
index
600
500
400
400
300
300
Log scale, end December 1994 = 100
index
1 500
Emerging Europe
1 000
1 000
Latin America
500
500
Financials
200
China
200
200
All other sectors
100
100
index
1 500
200
World
100
100
Emerging Asia
60
*
1997
2001
ASX 200 companies
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
2005
2009
2013
60
2017
40
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
40
2017
Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
23
Share Markets
Forward PE Ratios
ratio
ratio
MSCI Australia
index
2008/2009
MSCI World
excluding Australia
20
Forecast Earnings per Share
20
2011/2012
2007/2008
400
2014/2015
2006/2007
10
10
ASX 200
2005/2006
300
index
2009/2010
2016/2017
400
2013/2014
2010/2011
2012/2013
2015/2016
300
2004/2005
0
2001
2005
2009
2013
0
2017
Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI; Thomson Reuters
200
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
200
Source: Thomson Reuters
Dividend Yields
%
%
Australian Net Equity Raisings*
$b
Non-financial corporations
Financials**
30
6
6
ASX 200
4
2
0
4
2
MSCI World
excluding Australia
1997
2001
2005
2009
Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI; Thomson Reuters
2013
0
2017
$b
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
2001
*
**
2005
2009
2013
-5
2017
All listed companies
Includes banks and non-bank financials
Sources: ASX; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
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Bond Issuance
Bonds on Issue in Australia
$b
$b
Total Non-government Bonds on Issue
All currency denominations
$b
$b
500
500
Non-government**
400
400
450
450
Financials
300
300
200
State
governments
Australian government*
100
0
*
**
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
300
200
100
0
2017
Non-residents*
0
*
Excludes bonds purchased by the Australian Government
Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisations, includes government-guaranteed
bonds
1992
1997
2002
2007
Asset-backed
securities
2012
Non-government Bonds on Issue in Australia
Gross issuance
$b
Australia
Domestic issuers*
Non-resident issuers**
40
20
$b
$b
Financials
150
150
20
Asset-backed securities*
100
100
$b
$b
Offshore
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
*
**
2001
2005
2009
0
2017
Australian dollar-denominated bonds only
Sources: ABS; RBA
Non-government Bond Issuance
40
150
150
Sources: ABS; AOFM; RBA; State Treasury Corporations
$b
300
Non-financial
corporations
2013
0
2017
Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisations
Offshore non-resident issuance includes Australian dollar-denominated
bonds only
50
50
Non-residents
0
*
1992
1997
2002
2007
Non-financial
corporations
2012
0
2017
Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisations
Sources: ABS; RBA
Source: RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
25
Bond Issuance
US and Euro Area Corporate Bond Issuance*
Gross issuance
US$b
Financials
Non-financials
400
US$b
US
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
US$b
US$b
Euro area
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
2005
*
2008
June quarter-to-date
Sources: Dealogic; RBA
2011
2014
2017
0
Emerging Market Corporate Bond Issuance*
Gross issuance
US$b
US$b
China
200
200
Foreign currency-denominated
Local currency-denominated
100
US$b
100
US$b
Other
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
2005
*
2008
2011
2014
2017
0
June quarter-to-date
Sources: Dealogic; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
26
Exchange Rates
Australian Dollar Trade-weighted Index*
index
80
index
80
Real
70
70
60
60
Official Reserve Assets
A$b
80
A$b
80
Gross
60
60
40
40
20
20
Net*
Nominal
50
50
A$b
4
2
40
*
1987
1993
1999
2005
2011
40
2017
May 1970 = 100 for nominal; real indexed to equate post-float
averages; latest observations for real TWI are estimates
Sources: ABS; RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Australian Dollar
yen
1.60
Yen per A$
(LHS)
150
US$ per A$
Euro per A$*
50
*
1987
1993
1999
0
-2
-2
A$b
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
*
**
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
-4
2017
Excludes foreign exchange swaps
Includes market, government and other outright transactions,
excludes swap deliveries
*** Data up to 30 June 2016; a positive value indicates a purchase of
foreign exchange, while a negative value indicates a sale of foreign
exchange
Source: RBA
1.20
(RHS)
(RHS)
100
2
0
A$b RBA foreign exchange market intervention transactions***
4
US$,
euro
200
A$b
4
RBA net purchases
of foreign exchange**
0.80
2005
2011
0.40
2017
ECU per A$ until 31 December 1998
Sources: Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
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Exchange Rates
US Dollar
yen
US$
0.90
250
Selected Asian Currencies against the US Dollar
31 January 2000 = 100
index
140
210
1.30
US$ per euro*
1.70
100
Thailand
Malaysia
Yen per US$
100
90
80
80
(LHS)
2.50
60
50
*
1982
1989
1996
2003
2.90
2017
2010
US$ per ECU until 31 December 1998
Sources: Bloomberg; Eurostat
1999–2017 average = 100
index
40
60
Indonesia
2001
2005
2009
2013
40
2017
Source: Bloomberg
G3 Nominal Trade-weighted Indices
Chinese Renminbi
index
yuan
index
120
Japanese yen
120
120
India
2.10
130
140
South Korea
120
(RHS, inverted scale)
170
index
Singapore
120
US dollar
6.0
Nominal effective exchange rate
(LHS, 2010 average = 100)
110
6.5
110
110
100
7.0
100
100
90
7.5
90
90
70
Euro
80
2001
80
2005
2009
2013
80
2017
8.0
Yuan per US$
(RHS, inverted scale)
2001
2005
2009
2013
8.5
2017
Sources: BIS; Bloomberg; RBA
Sources: BIS; Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
28
Banking Indicators
Australian Bank Profitability*
Australian Bank Profits
$b
Net profit after tax
Bad and doubtful debts charge
Major banks
Major banks
$b
12
12
6
6
Return on shareholders’ equity after tax and minority interests
%
%
Majors
20
20
10
$b
Other Australian-owned
banks
Other Australian-owned
banks
10
$b
2.2
2.2
1.1
1.1
$b
$b
Other Australian-owned banks
0
0
-10
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
-10
*
Foreign-owned banks
Foreign-owned banks
1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0
-1.5
2006
2011
2016
2006
2011
2016
-1.5
Fiscal years from 2003 onwards; prior data are as reported in banks
financial statements
Sources: APRA; Banks’ annual reports; RBA
Major Banks’ Net Interest Margin*
Domestic, half-yearly
%
%
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
Sources: APRA; RBA
1.5
*
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
1.5
From 2006 data are on an IFRS basis; prior years are on AGAAP
basis; excludes St George Bank and Bankwest prior to the first half
of 2009
Sources: Banks’ Financial Reports; RBA
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
29
Banking Indicators
Banks’ Non-performing Assets
Banks’ Non-performing Assets
Consolidated global operations, share of on-balance sheet assets
%
%
Total*
6
6
Domestic books
%
Share of all loans
Share of loans by type*
4
%
4
Business**
(35%)
3
3
4
4
2
2
2
Impaired
0
*
1991
Personal
(4%)
1
1
Housing
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
0
*
2006
2011
2016
2006
2011
2016
Capital Ratios*
Consolidated global operations of locally incorporated ADIs
Other ADIs
Funding Composition of Banks in Australia*
%
Share of total funding
%
%
60
Credit unions
15
15
Total
60
Domestic deposits
50
50
40
10
5
Tier 2
0
*
1996
Short-term debt**
30
Common Equity Tier 1
5
40
10
Building societies
Tier 1
20
30
20
Long-term debt
10
2006
2016
1996
2006
0
Each category’s share of total domestic lending at December 2016 is
shown in parentheses; shares may not add up to 100 due to rounding
** Includes lending to financial businesses, bills, debt securities and
other non-household loans
Sources: APRA; RBA
Includes assets 90+ days past due that are well secured
Banks
(60%)
0
Source: APRA
%
2
Total
2016
Per cent of risk-weighted assets; break in March 2008 due to the
introduction of Basel II for most ADIs; break in March 2013 due to the
introduction of Basel III for all ADIs
Source: APRA
0
10
Equity
Securitisation
0
*
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
0
Adjusted for movements in foreign exchange rates; tenor of debt is
estimated on a residual maturity basis
** Includes deposits and intragroup funding from non-residents
Sources: APRA; RBA; Standard & Poor’s
CHART PACK | JUNE 2017
30