ARTICLES PUBLISHED ONLINE: 27 MAY 2012 | DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1481 An aerial view of 80 years of climate-related glacier fluctuations in southeast Greenland Anders A. Bjørk1 *, Kurt H. Kjær1 , Niels J. Korsgaard1 , Shfaqat A. Khan2 , Kristian K. Kjeldsen1 , Camilla S. Andresen3 , Jason E. Box4,5 , Nicolaj K. Larsen6 and Svend Funder1 Widespread retreat of glaciers has been observed along the southeastern margin of Greenland. This retreat has been associated with increased air and ocean temperatures. However, most observations are from the satellite era; presatellite observations of Greenlandic glaciers are rare. Here we present a unique record that documents the frontal positions for 132 southeast Greenlandic glaciers from rediscovered historical aerial imagery beginning in the early 1930s. We combine the historical aerial images with both early and modern satellite imagery to extract frontal variations of marine- and land-terminating outlet glaciers, as well as local glaciers and ice caps, over the past 80 years. The images reveal a regional response to external forcing regardless of glacier type, terminal environment and size. Furthermore, the recent retreat was matched in its vigour during a period of warming in the 1930s with comparable increases in air temperature. We show that many land-terminating glaciers underwent a more rapid retreat in the 1930s than in the 2000s, whereas marine-terminating glaciers retreated more rapidly during the recent warming. S ince the mid 1990s, sections of the Greenland Ice Sheet margin have been retreating significantly1,2 , leading to glacier speedups and dynamic ice loss3–9 . Notable are the major changes in southeast Greenland. Evidence from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission10–12 , radar interferometry13 and a global positioning system14 show significant increases in the mass-loss rate and glacier velocities in this region since late 2003. This acceleration is partly attributed to increased dynamic thinning triggered by rising air and ocean temperatures9,15 . However, although the mass loss of the entire ice sheet has steadily increased16 , glaciers along the southeastern margin decelerated and advanced in 2006 (refs 3,5,17), suggesting episodic rather than steady changes in frontal positions. In situ mass-balance measurements in southeast Greenland are rare and exist only for a single glacier over a longer timescale18 . Consequently, frontal area and length changes of outlet glaciers have been used implicitly to derive changes in regional mass balance19–21 . Several studies have investigated short-term frontal changes of glaciers on the southeast coast of Greenland and almost all have been limited to satellite imagery19–22 . Although a few studies have investigated sporadic aerial imagery and frontal changes in the region on a longer timescale23,24 , none have so far investigated the entire time span from 1931 to present. In the early twentieth century several expeditions were launched to east Greenland to produce new geographical maps and in many instances to map the coastlines for the first time. Using state-ofthe-art photographic and aircraft technology, the seventh Thule Expedition25,26 conducted a systematic survey of the southeast coast of Greenland in 1932–1933. After the initial use the images were classified and not generally accessible. Later, they were archived in a citadel outside Copenhagen, and knowledge of their location forgotten. Our rediscovery of the early twentieth-century images Figure 1 | Historical aerial photographs from the seventh Thule Expedition, 1933. The oblique photographs were recorded from a Heinkel MKII hydroplane and show the Helheim Glacier (SEGL014). Images (no. 20.907–20.910) were recorded from left to right at 4,000 m elevation. along with air photos obtained by the US military in the World War II era provide us with a unique opportunity to observe changes in Greenlandic glaciers at high spatial resolution from a period where quantitative observations and measurements are absent (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Information). Furthermore, the recent fluctuations in the Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance underlines that longer-term records are needed to explain a causal relationship between climate and glacier variability in this region. Unravelling historical imagery We analyse the frontal behaviour of 132 glaciers along more than 600 km of the southeast Greenland coastline, between 61.5◦ N and 66.5◦ N latitude. Combining aerial photographs (1931–1933, 1 Centre for GeoGenetics, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 1350, Denmark, 2 DTU Space — National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Geodesy, Copenhagen 2100, Denmark, 3 Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Department of Marine Geology and Glaciology, Copenhagen 1350, Denmark, 4 Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210-1361, USA, 5 Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210-1002, USA, 6 Department of Geoscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus 8000, Denmark. *e-mail: [email protected]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 5 | JUNE 2012 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. 427 NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1481 ARTICLES Table 1 | Images and sources used in this study. Year Date Data type Source Ground resolution Number of images used 1931 1932 1933 1933 1943? 1965 1972 1981/1985 2000 2010 20 July August August Late July End of melt season Late July Early September–early October Late July August Late July/August Oblique aerial Oblique aerial Oblique aerial Terrestrial Vertical aerial Satellite Satellite Vertical aerial Satellite Satellite BAARE Seventh Thule Seventh Thule Seventh Thule USAAF/USN Corona Landsat 1 MSS KMS Landsat 7 ETM + Landsat 7 ETM + <60 m <60 m <60 m n.a. ∼1.7 m 0.61 m 60 m 4 m (ortho) 15 m (pan) 15 m (pan) 36 9 212 4 124 28 9 311 8 9 KMS, National Danish Survey and Cadastre; USAAF/USN, United States Army Air Force/United States Navy; n.a., not applicable. The ground resolution of the oblique aerial images vary within the frame of the image; only images within a ground resolution of 60 m or better have been used owing to the relative higher uncertainties in rectifying the oblique images. 1981/1985 vertical aerial images from KMS were scanned at a resolution of ∼2 m. The Landsat 7 scenes have a spatial resolution of 30 m and were pan-sharpened to a resolution of 15 m using the panchromatic band 8. The exact time of recording remains uncertain for the USAAF/USN images (see Supplementary Information); based on the snow conditions, images must have been recorded at the end of the melt season. 66° N Gre enl and Ice She et 38° W Advance (m yr–1) 0¬10 10¬25 25¬50 50¬100 100¬200 200¬420 Atl ant ic O cea n 0¬10 10¬25 25¬50 50¬100 100¬200 200¬500 500¬888 62° N 0 1933¬1943 1943¬1965 1965¬1972 1972¬1981* 1981*¬2000 2000*¬2010 Retreat (m yr–1) N 50 km 100 Figure 2 | Frontal changes of southeast Greenland glaciers. Changes are shown as rates during six observation periods from 1933 to 2010. Red circles show retreat and green circles advance (m yr−1 ). A total of 132 glaciers are included, originating both from the ice sheet as well as local glaciers and ice caps. The data gap in the central fjord region in the second and third period is a result of a missing 1965 image. *Note, the 17 southernmost aerial images were recorded in 1985 and not in 1981, and frontal change rates reflect 1985 position. Background image is an Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global DEM (product of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration), with land and ice-sheet masks added. Error bars reflect the measuring uncertainty for each observational period. 1943, 1981–1985), terrestrial photographs (1933) and satellite images (1965, 1972, 2000, 2010) we determine frontal changes over a period of 80 years (Table 1). A semi-automated referencepoint method, modified from the box method20,21,27 , is used to measure frontal fluctuations (Supplementary Information). We differentiate between local glaciers and ice caps peripheral to the ice sheet, and outlets of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The surveyed region covers a wide range of different topographic settings and ice marginal environments (Supplementary Information). Of 36 main (>2 km wide) marine-terminating glaciers, 30 are represented in the data set. The remaining six large outlet glaciers could not be digitized with adequate accuracy from the historical imagery. Throughout the 80 years of observation, the southeast Greenland glaciers have undergone widespread retreat, with only a few glaciers advancing (5%) or remaining stationary (<2%; Fig. 2). The observational period can be divided into three distinct periods of frontal change. Two recessional events stand out, one during the 428 1930s (1933–1943) at the onset of our observations and one during the 2000s (2000–2010). The two periods of retreat are interrupted by a period of widespread advance from 1943 to 1972. During our first observation period (1933–1943) most of the glaciers retreated (Fig. 2) with typical rates of 10–50 m yr−1 and a maximum rate of 374 m yr−1 . This retreat occurred just after a warming period with abnormally high temperatures and during a period with slightly decreasing temperatures and higher-thanusual accumulation rates28 . The retreat pattern is non-uniform as a number of glaciers in the central fjord region, primarily marine-terminating glaciers originating from ice sheets, advanced within this period (Fig. 2). The retreat in the 2000s is more uniform with only 5% of the 132 glaciers advancing. The highest retreat rates observed in the study occurred in this latest period. All glaciers retreating at rates >200 m yr−1 are large (>2 km wide) marine-terminating outlets from the ice sheet, with Midgaard Glacier (in the northern part of the study area) showing the largest retreat of 887 m yr−1 . NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 5 | JUNE 2012 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1481 a SST anomaly (°C) 1.5 1.0 0.5 Retreat rates 1933¬1943 < 2000¬2010 1933¬1943 = ∗2000¬2010 1933¬1943 > 2000¬2010 0 –0.5 1 0 –1 –2 b Tasiilaq mean annual air temperature (°C) –1.0 c Average retreat rate (m yr–1) –3 c b Number of observations a ARTICLES 0 16 12 8 4 0 –10 ¬600 ¬400 ¬200 0 200 400 Retreat rate difference (m yr¬1) –20 (1933¬1943¬2000¬2010) –30 –40 –50 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Observations Aerial photo Satellite Year Figure 3 | Average frontal changes of glaciers and temperature records. a, SST anomaly at two locations (see map to the right) during 1912–2011 from Met Office Hadley Centre observations data sets (green and purple curve) (Supplementary Information). The SST anomaly is relative to a 1961–2000 baseline. b, The air temperature record from Tasiilaq (blue curve). Periods of combined forcing from air and SST warming and cooling are shaded red and blue. c, Frontal change rates of many glaciers are averaged, hence the mid-century cooling and related advance observed in Fig. 2 is seen as a slowdown or slight retreat. Error bars reflect the measuring uncertainty for each observational period. Glacial response to warming Air temperatures in southeast Greenland have reached record heights since continuous observations began in 1895 (ref. 29). The temperature rise has been steady at 1.3 ◦ C per decade since 1993. However, the recent warming is not unique for southeast Greenland (Fig. 3). An earlier warming period of 2.0 ◦ C per decade30,31 occurred from 1919 to 1932 (early twentieth-century warming, ECW) and was primarily dominated by spring warming, leading to a prolonged melt season31 . The warming has been attributed to unusual circulation patterns in the atmosphere over the North Atlantic Ocean32 and lower insolation due to aerosol presence33 . However, recorded annual temperatures are 0.45 ◦ C warmer in the recent decade than during the peak of the ECW. Both warming periods share similar North Atlantic Oscillation phases and follow the interdecadal variations and overall increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (Fig. 3). We therefore use the ECW as an analogue to the present and a means to better understand glacier response and sensitivity to external forcing. The 1930s and 2000s retreat events were associated with both rising air- and SSTs well above the mean (Fig. 3). These two retreat periods are also seen as the peak calving periods in a study of fjord sediments from Sermilik Fjord where the Helheim Glacier terminates and here it was documented that decadal scale variability in frontal positions is related to decadal scale changes in both air and sea temperatures34 . Notably, our findings show that decadal scale climate-forced glacier changes are not restricted Figure 4 | Retreat-rate difference between the large retreat periods 1933–1943 and 2000–2010. Yellow circles indicate glaciers experiencing faster or equal change in the 1933–1943 period in comparison with the 2000–2010 period; blue is the opposite; green circles indicate equal frontal retreat rates (within the measuring uncertainty of ±7 m yr−1 ). a, Land-terminating glaciers. b, Marine-terminating glaciers. c, Histogram depicting the difference in retreat rates between the two periods. to the large Helheim Glacier, but that most of the glaciers along the southeast coast followed a similar retreat pattern (Fig. 4). Of all glaciers, 35% show higher retreat rates during the 1930s and 20% show similar retreat rates. For land-terminating glaciers 42% were faster during the 1930s and 33% similar. However, more glaciers retreated during the 2000s. Of the seven glaciers undergoing high retreat rates during the 2000s (>200 m yr−1 over a ten-year period), all are relatively large marine-terminating outlet glaciers that have proved especially sensitive to changes in ocean temperature9,15 . Divergence in frontal behaviour between the two warm events is observed in the central fjord region (Figs 2 and 5). Here, a large number of primarily marine-terminating glaciers originating from the ice sheet advanced during the early observation period. This region is more mountainous than others and hosts glaciers that reach the fjords through long alpine valleys. Of all the advancing marine-terminating glaciers from the ice sheet, nine out of ten have abundant proglacial ice mélange. In this particular region, the fjord ice breaks up later in the season than in the rest of the study area, suggesting that the late breakup combined with the presence of calf ice restrain rapid glacial retreat35 . It is also possible that the higher-than-normal accumulation in the ECW (ref. 28) is dominating over the effect of increased temperatures on melt rates. Moreover, some response to the early ECW may already have occurred before the beginning of our observations (Supplementary Information). Mid-century cooling As the ECW faded, a period of cooling began in the mid 1950s that lasted until the early 1970s. The glacier response to the cooling was an advance, primarily among marine-terminating glaciers. Surprisingly, a large portion (60%) of our glaciers advanced, many already at the beginning of the period (Fig. 5), whereas another 12% were stationary during the period. This shows that the glaciers in this region are more sensitive to climate change and react more rapidly to cooling than indicated both by earlier studies36,37 and by NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 5 | JUNE 2012 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. 429 NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1481 ARTICLES a 38° W At la nti Gr ee cO nla nd cea n Ice Sh ee t 66° N dz (m) 1933¬2007 land-terminating margins d 62° N 1933¬1943 1943¬1965 1965¬1972 1972¬1981* 1981*¬2000 2000¬2010 300 200 100 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Distance north to south (km) b 66° N lan dI ce Sh eet 38° W ic O cea n Gr een Advance (m yr–1) Atl ant 0¬10 10¬25 25¬50 50¬100 100¬200 200¬420 500¬888 Retreat (m yr –1) N 62° N –20 –40 –60 –80 Marine-terminating 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year 1972¬1981* 1981*¬2000 0 –20 –40 –60 –80 Land-terminating 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year 2000¬2010 0 –20 –40 –60 –80 Ice-sheet glaciers 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year 0 Average retreat rate (m yr –1) 0 1965¬1972 Average retreat rate (m yr –1) 1943¬1965 Average retreat rate (m yr –1) Average retreat rate (m yr–1) 1933¬1943 c 0¬10 10¬25 25¬50 50¬100 100¬200 200¬420 50 km 100 0 –20 –40 –60 –80 Local glaciers 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Figure 5 | A closer look at marine- and land-terminating glaciers. Frontal changes are shown as rates during six observation periods from 1933 to 2010. Red circles show retreat and green circles advance (m yr−1 ). *Note, the 17 southernmost aerial images were recorded in 1985 and not in 1981, and frontal change rates reflect 1985 position. a, Land-terminating glaciers. b, Marine-terminating glaciers. c, Aggregated frontal retreat rates, with measuring uncertainty for each period. Error bars reflect the measuring uncertainty for each observational period. d, Changes in land-terminating margin elevation for the period 1933–2007. Filled circles are ice-sheet glaciers, open circles are local glaciers and ice caps. more recent studies investigating marine-terminating outlets from 1972 onwards21 . Exploring SST data we find that a period of colderthan-usual temperatures reached the coast of southeast Greenland in the late 1960s (Supplementary Information). However, the influence of cold water on the terminus of marine-terminating outlets does not explain the entire advance as numerous landterminating glaciers advance in the period 1943–1981 (Fig. 5). 430 Hence, a shorter melt season38 and increased accumulation28 resulted in glacier growth after the ECW. Considering the temporal resolution of our observations, it is possible that advance may have occurred and not been documented in this data set. Such is the case with the Mittivakkat Glacier, which advanced between 1946 and 1956 (ref. 39), and minor advances that are not detected in this data set have also been reported in 2006 in east and NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 5 | JUNE 2012 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1481 southeast Greenland17,19 . These findings emphasize the fact that marine-terminating glaciers may respond quickly to both warmer and colder ocean temperatures9,15,40 . Ice-marginal sensitivity to external forcing A comparison between retreat rates for local and outlet glaciers from the Greenland Ice Sheet shows that local glaciers show similar retreat rates during the two warming periods, whereas ice-sheet glacier retreat has accelerated during the latest warming (Fig. 5). Land-terminating glaciers, most of which are of local origin, did however retreat more rapidly after the ECW. As most land-terminating glaciers are situated in valleys, the ablation area becomes smaller as the terminus retreats to higher ground. From 1933 to the present (2007) some glacier fronts have been elevated more than 250 m (Fig. 5d). This is more pronounced for local glaciers and ice caps. The elevation change probably explains the differences observed in retreat rate between the ECW and the recent warming, as the initial conditions for the two retreat periods have changed through time. It has been argued that the east coast can be divided into two distinct regions with regards to ice–climate response at 69◦ N, with the southern region being more dynamic as a response to the influence of warm Atlantic water17 . Our results show that glaciers in the entire southeast region south of 67◦ N have reacted synchronously to the warming events regardless of type, size and terminal environment, indicating that the retreat observed during the past decade5,6,14,17,19,20 is not confined to large marineterminating glaciers from the ice sheet. The acceleration of glacial retreat observed during the past decade is expected to continue with rising temperatures20,21 . Climate models project continued warming through the twentyfirst century and beyond41 , and records of ocean heat content indicate strong increases in temperature in the past few decades42 . With Greenland temperatures deviating at present from the ongoing temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere, it has been proposed that Greenland mean temperatures must warm 1.0–1.5 ◦ C above the 2007 level to be in synchronicity with the Northern Hemisphere31 . This has been supported by the observed temperature rise in the subsequent four years (2008–2011) and reinforces the expectation that continued warming will occur in the coming years. However, the recent high rate of retreat may come to a slowdown when retreating marine-terminating glaciers reach their grounding line and become less sensitive to the influence of ocean temperature19,20 , or through positive or negative feedback mechanisms relating to the cold East Greenland Coastal Current9 . Our analysis of historical aerial imagery from the past 80 years shows that the glaciers of southeast Greenland have responded vigorously on a decadal scale to both warming and cooling. Major retreat has occurred not only during the recent warming18–20 , but also during and after the ECW, when air and SSTs were similar to the present or slightly lower. However, the recent retreat rate is higher for marine-terminating glaciers whereas it was higher for land-terminating glaciers in the early twentieth century. The asymmetric response between glacier types suggests that although the retreat ceased and shifted to advance in response to the mid-twentieth century cooling, the lower retreat rate of landterminating glaciers in the recent warming period may be due to their smaller overall extent and elevated terminus altitude. These findings are an important contribution to the sparse knowledge of local glaciers and ice caps in Greenland, as only a few studies so far have carried out investigations on a regional scale43,44 and none on the southeast coast of Greenland. Although research shows a less pronounced retreat north of the study area7,8,17,44 , the recent record-setting high temperatures have resulted in an unprecedented extent of glacial retreat in southeast Greenland, which should continue with a persevering temperature increase. ARTICLES Our results have implications for future estimations of sea-level rise as retreat rates for marine-terminating glaciers are likely to increase as temperature rises until glacier fronts reach the grounding line, or when cold ocean currents re-establish, whereas retreat rates for land-terminating glaciers are not likely to rise in the same order of magnitude. Methods Glacier length data were obtained from terrestrial, aerial oblique and vertical photos and satellite images. All images were rectified in digital form according to 1981/1985-orthorectified mosaics generated from a digital elevation model (DEM) created from the 1981 and 1985 aerial images using BAE Systems SocetSet 5.5.0. Images from 1981 and 1985 were scanned on a photogrammetric precision scanner from negatives at a resolution of 15 µm (2 m ground resolution), images from 1931, 1932, 1933 and 1943 were retrieved from paper copies at a resolution of 600 dpi. The main source of historical imagery is the seventh Thule Expedition (1932–1933), but material from the British Arctic Air Route Expedition (BAARE; 1931) has been used to fill gaps not covered by the former. Rectification of images covering each glacier was carried out using tie-points surrounding the glacier front and subsequently tie-points were identified in 1981/1985 orthomosaics for coregistration. Tie-points were placed at a similar elevation to that of the glacier front, to minimize distortion within the rectified image. The type of transformation varied according to number of available tie-points. Uncertainties in digitization were found empirically by using known stationary landforms within the rectified image (for example, trim lines and tidewater marks on bedrock) and thereby calculating the standard deviation using the 1981/1985 orthomosaics as ground truth. Equivalent rectification process and uncertainty estimation was carried out with all digital satellite images. After the digitization of glacier fronts, glacier lengths were measured using a glacier length tool developed for the Environmental Science Research Institute’s ArcGIS 10.0 that divides each glacier front into points with a separation of 15 m. From a static measuring point placed at an arbitrary position up-glacier, the mean distances to points were calculated (see Supplementary Information). Where 1933 images were available, 1931 and 1932 images were used and frontal changes were calculated to the 1933 date by linear regression. For all calculations involving average values of frontal change rates, Midgaard Glacier (SEGL011, 66◦ 260 N, 36◦ 440 W) was discarded from the calculations owing to its extremely high retreat resulting in an obvious skewing of the averages. Elevation changes of land-terminating fronts were found by extracting the elevation values of the digitized 1933 fronts from the 1981/1985-DEM, whereas recent elevations were extracted from a 2007 Systéme Pour l’Observation de la Terre Spirit DEM. Received 21 January 2012; accepted 20 April 2012; published online 27 May 2012 References 1. Joughin, I., Abdalati, W. & Fahnestock, M. Large fluctuations in speed on Greenland’s Jakobshavn Isbrae Glacier. Nature 432, 608–610 (2004). 2. Howat, I. M., Joughin, I., Tulaczyk, S. & Gogineni, S. Rapid retreat and acceleration of Helheim Glacier, east Greenland. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L22502 (2005). 3. Nick, F. M., Vieli, A., Howat, I. M. & Joughin, I. 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We are also grateful to the Scott Polar Research Institute (UK), and the Arctic Institute (Copenhagen, Denmark) who also supplied access to historical images. A. Pedersen (MapWorks, Denmark) wrote the script for the glacier length tool. Systéme Pour l’Observation de la Terre Spirit DEM was obtained from B. Csatho and S. Nagarajan, Geology Department, University at Buffalo, USA. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global DEM data were obtained through the online data pool at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center, United States Geological Survey /Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota. We thank K. L. Bird and E. Willerslev who edited the manuscript. This work is a part of the RinkProject financially supported by the Danish Research Council (FNU) no. 272-08-0415 and the Commission for Scientific Research in Greenland (KVUG). Author contributions A.A.B. and K.H.K. designed and conducted the study, N.J.K. conducted photogrammetry, K.K.K. undertook the geographic information system analysis, J.E.B., C.S.A. and S.A.K. carried out climate and SST analysis. All authors contributed to the discussion and writing of the manuscript. Additional information The authors declare no competing financial interests. Supplementary information accompanies this paper on www.nature.com/naturegeoscience. Reprints and permissions information is available online at www.nature.com/reprints. Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to A.A.B. NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 5 | JUNE 2012 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
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