2008/ED/EFA/MRT/PI/42
Original: Spanish
Background paper prepared for the
Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2008
Education for All by 2015: will we make it?
Urban and rural disparities in Latin America:
their implications for education access
Nestor Lopez
IIEP Buenos Aires
2007
This paper was commissioned by the Education for All Global Monitoring Report as background
information to assist in drafting the 2008 report. It has not been edited by the team. The views
and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the
EFA Global Monitoring Report or to UNESCO. The papers can be cited with the following
reference: “Paper commissioned for the EFA Global Monitoring Report 2008, Education for All
by 2015: will we make it? For further information, please contact [email protected]
Presentation
This paper was commissioned from the Buenos Aires Regional Office of the International Institute
for Educational Planning (IIEP) by the working group responsible for drafting the Education for All
(EFA) Global Monitoring Report, published annually by UNESCO.
The working group requested a text including a range of social and educational indicators enabling
the levels of access to primary and secondary education in various Latin American countries to be
monitored. Working together, the Office and the working group agreed on the most suitable
indicators for attaining the aims of the EFA Global Monitoring Report, the levels of disaggregation
for the data, and the countries and the years for which the indicators would be produced.
They agreed to focus on producing four educational indicators:
• Net primary education enrolment ratios;
• Percentage of primary school-age children who have never attended an educational
establishment;
• Net secondary education enrolment ratios;
• Age-specific enrolment ratios for secondary school-age adolescents.
A concern present from the outset was producing data sufficiently disaggregated to be able to
demonstrate the variations in each country. In principle, that would stress the disparities between
urban and rural areas, but in order to go beyond simply analysing variations, it was decided to
disaggregate the data by the various regions of each country. This enabled the differences in the
various national, urban and rural situations in each country to be recorded.
Lastly, a series of indicators was produced showing the social situation and employment conditions
of families in each of the regions, aiming to provide a context making it easier to propose theories
about the processes discernible from a preliminary reading of the trends in enrolment ratios.
Household surveys undertaken by the national statistics institutes of the countries considered 1 for
the pre- and post-Dakar periods were used as a source of information. This information had already
been standardized and made compatible under the Information System on Educational Trends in
Latin America (SITEAL) project, a joint initiative of the IIEP Buenos Aires and the Organization of
Ibero-American States for Education, Science and Culture (OEI). Although this work sought to
produce standardized, comparable information about the educational situation of 11 countries, it
also offered preliminary data analysis, which served as a springboard to undertaking a more detailed
appraisal. The first part of the paper describes the most pertinent findings set out in the form of a
basically descriptive plan. Subsequently, in the form of conclusions to this analysis, theories and
considered views are presented, proposing interpretations of possible challenges that could be
identified in terms of educational policies. Following this, the information produced is included in
an annex and lastly, a further annex contains a brief report making clear the methodological
decisions taken throughout the project.
1
The countries considered were: Bolivia (2002), Brazil (1992-2002), Chile (1996-2003), Costa Rica (1995-2005),
El Salvador (1997-2003), Guatemala (2001), Honduras (1990-2001), Mexico (2000-2004), Nicaragua (19982001), Paraguay (1995-2000) and Peru (1997-2000).
–2–
Principal trends in access to education in Latin America: preliminary data analysis
1 - The current situation
Beginning with the 1990 Jomtien Conference, various conferences, 2 forums 3 and documents 4 have
made Education for All their objective. In principle, in Latin America this objective was reflected in
goals expressed by full access to primary education, but this expectation gradually expanded to the
point that today, most explicitly propose to ensure that all children and adolescents complete
secondary education.
How distant is this goal? In principle, and quite logically, primary enrolment rates are higher than
secondary enrolment rates in all countries. Access to primary education is more widespread and in
addition there are fewer variations between countries at this level. Moreover, in those cases in
which there are greater problems with secondary enrolment, a larger proportion of adolescents
remain in primary education despite being of secondary school-age. By analysing the net enrolment
ratios and the age-specific enrolment ratios, 5 we are able to distinguish three different situations in
the countries under consideration at the start of this millennium:
• Chile, Mexico and Brazil have the highest primary and secondary enrolment ratios.
• Costa Rica, El Salvador, Bolivia and Peru are in an intermediate position.
• Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Paraguay are the most disadvantaged.
Paraguay and Guatemala stand out among the latter, as only a quarter of their secondary school-age
population receives any schooling at this level and they have a significant proportion of adolescents
in primary education.
Table 1. Net enrolment ratios by level and age-specific secondary enrolment ratio,
primary/secondary gap and percentage difference in secondary enrolment. PostDakar period.
Country total.
Country
Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) Secondary Age- Primary/second
6
specific
ary gap
Year
Enrolment Ratio
(ASER) 7
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
enrolment
difference*
Lag**
Bolivia
2002
87.1
62.2
85.0
1.4
22.8
0
Brazil
2002
90.0
72.1
73.7
1.2
1.6
0
Chile
2003
91.9
80.9
89.6
1.1
8.7
0
Costa Rica 2005
86.4
63.3
75.3
1.4
12
0
El Salvador 2003
88.5
51.5
62.4
1.7
11
0
Guatemala 2001
77.6
25.5
47.4
3.0
21.9
0
2
3
4
5
6
7
The Ibero-American Conferences of Ministers of Education, inter alia.
Dakar World Education Forum.
One of the pioneers in the region may well have been “Education and Knowledge: Basic Pillars of Changing
Production Patterns with Social Equity”, United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean, ECLAC-UNESCO Regional Bureau for Education in Latin America and the Caribbean. 1991.
See methodological annex.
NER refers to net enrolment ratio.
ASER refers to age-specific enrolment ratio.
–3–
Honduras
2001
85.8
34.1
52.2
2.5
18.1
0
Mexico
2004
95.4
66.7
73.3
1.4
6.6
0
Nicaragua
2001
83.0
42.9
56.3
1.9
13.4
0
Paraguay
2000
91.4
28.0
67.5
3.3
39.6
1
Peru
2000
92.2
61.0
82.5
1.5
21.6
0
* Ratio of secondary school-age pupils in primary education to the total secondary school-age population.
** A ‘1’ indicates those countries where the number of secondary school-age pupils at the primary level is greater than
the number at the secondary level.
Urban areas are analysed first, followed by rural areas in order to demonstrate the internal logic of
each.
Urban areas
Primary enrolment is widespread in urban areas. Ratios exceed 90% in most countries, with a
minimum level of 83%. While variations between countries are not large at this level, they become
more apparent at the secondary level. There are countries where variations in attendance between
these two levels are highly significant, which points to major difficulties in retaining pupils
when changing from one level to another. Noteworthy in this regard is a group of countries
(Guatemala, Honduras and Paraguay), where primary enrolment is almost double the figure for
secondary enrolment, or even exceeds this. In these countries, less than half of secondary schoolage adolescents are in school. In Nicaragua, the gap between primary and secondary enrolment is
the smallest of the above-mentioned countries, a result of a lower primary enrolment and a higher
secondary enrolment. Lastly, in the case of Paraguay, the proportion of secondary school-age
adolescents who remain at the primary level is higher. It is therefore possible to delineate three
groups of countries, by their enrolment profile in urban areas:
• countries where both primary and secondary enrolment is high (Brazil and Chile);
• countries in an intermediate position, with high primary enrolment and average secondary
enrolment (Bolivia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Mexico and Peru); and
• countries with low enrolment and – generally – substantial differences between indicators at
both educational levels (Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Paraguay).
Table 2. Net enrolment ratios by level and age-specific secondary enrolment ratio,
primary/secondary gap and percentage difference in secondary enrolment. PostDakar period.
Urban areas.
NER
Country
Primary
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
88.8
90.4
92.0
86.5
90.5
83.2
88.9
95.2
Secondary
ASER
Primary/
Secondary
gap
91.5
90.2
94.9
91.6
74.8
64.9
71.3
77.4
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.8
1.8
1.4
Secondary
74.2
76.3
82.0
71.3
63.9
47.2
49.8
69.3
Secondary
enrolment
difference*
Lag**
17.3
14
12.9
20.3
10.9
17.7
21.5
8.1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
–4–
Nicaragua
Paraguay
Peru
86.4
93.6
92.7
57.9
37.7
73.1
74.5
85.0
91.7
1.5
2.5
1.3
16.5
47.3
18.6
0
1
0
* Ratio of secondary school-age pupils in primary education to the total secondary school-age population.
** A ‘1’ indicates those countries where the number of secondary school-age pupils at the primary level is greater than
the number at the secondary level.
Rural areas
In rural areas, primary education covers most of the primary school-age population, although there
is less coverage than in urban areas. In some countries, the primary net enrolment ratios are greater
than 90% (Chile, Mexico and Peru) and the rest include, as a minimum, three quarters of the official
school-age 8 population in all countries. Nicaragua and Guatemala lag furthest behind in this regard.
Secondary enrolment is much further from attaining the goal of universalization and at the same
time, reflecting the general trend, it is where the greatest diversity among Latin American countries
appears. In some countries, secondary enrolment levels are particularly low and this appears in
conjunction with a significant proportion of secondary school-age adolescents remaining in
primary education.
From a comprehensive analysis of the indicators, three types of countries emerge:
• Countries with high primary and secondary enrolment. These show widespread primary
enrolment and although secondary enrolment is less, the situation is the best in the region.
The majority of secondary school-age pupils are in secondary education (Chile and Mexico).
• Countries with high, but not widespread primary enrolment (at 85%) and average secondary
enrolment for the region. Nevertheless, in these countries, at least one third of the secondary
school-age population who actually attend school are at the primary level. The dual existence
of high net primary enrolment ratios and a significant proportion of secondary school-age
adolescents in primary education raises the possibility of universalization at this level, with
significant lag indexes (Peru, Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador and Bolivia).
• Countries with the lowest primary enrolment ratios in the region and a very low secondary
enrolment ratio (net ratios between 10 and 20% approximately). These countries are
noteworthy in having a majority of secondary school-age pupils in primary school (Guatemala,
Honduras, Nicaragua and Paraguay).
8
This refers to the ages at which it is expected children will attend primary school in accordance with each
country’s educational requirements.
–5–
Table 3. Net enrolment ratios by level and age-specific secondary enrolment ratio,
primary/secondary gap and percentage difference in secondary enrolment. PostDakar period.
Rural areas.
Country
NER
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
ASER
Primary/
Secondary
relative divide
Difference
secondary
enrolment*
Lag**
Chile
91.3
74.1
89.8
1.2
15.7
0
México
95.9
59.9
71.3
1.6
11.4
0
Peru
91.5
43.4
79.3
2.1
36
0
Brazil
87.9
53.4
84.7
1.6
31.2
0
Costa Rica
86.3
53.0
79.2
1.6
26.2
0
El Salvador
86.3
36.8
55.7
2.3
18.9
0
Bolivia
84.6
43.2
74.7
2.0
31.5
0
Guatemala
74.7
12.7
37.1
5.9
24.4
1
Honduras
83.6
21.9
49.7
3.8
27.8
1
Nicaragua
78.9
22.4
50.8
3.5
28.4
1
Paraguay
89.5
17.9
65.6
5.0
47.8
1
* Ratio of secondary school-age pupils in primary education to the total secondary school-age population.
** A ‘1’ indicates the countries where the number of secondary school-age pupils at the primary level is greater than
the number at the secondary level.
2 – Recent changes in primary and secondary enrolment levels
A general analysis of the data demonstrates that in the region’s countries enrolment ratios are rising.
This is greater in areas that initially had the lowest ratios, in turn leading to a reduction in the urbanrural divide and interregional variations. The rate of growth in primary enrolment is, in general
terms, lower than that of secondary enrolment.
Table 4. Net primary and secondary enrolment ratios and average annual growth rate by
country. Pre- and post-Dakar periods.
Country total.
Country
Brazil
Chile
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Paraguay
Peru
9
10
11
NPER
Total
Initial situation
NSER
Total
77.96
89.39
68.70
83.37
75.10
90.96
79.64
78.65
68.32
46.22
73.90
31.10
45.37
18.65
63.70
36.56
24.61
56.10
NPER-NSER
Percentage
difference
-31.74
-15.49
-37.60
-38.00
-56.45
-27.26
-43.08
-54.04
-12.22
NPER refers to net primary enrolment ratio.
GR refers to growth rate.
NSER refers to net secondary enrolment ratio.
Total NPER 9
GR 10
1.44
0.40
2.32
1.00
1.22
1.19
1.37
3.06
10.52
Annual growth rate
Total NSER 11
NPER-NSER
GR
Percentage
difference
4.55
3.11
1.30
0.91
7.37
5.05
2.13
1.13
5.65
4.43
1.16
-0.03
5.49
4.11
2.58
-0.48
2.83
-7.69
–6–
For both primary and secondary enrolment, average growth is greater in rural areas than in urban
areas. This means that the rural-urban divide has become less pronounced in all countries. 12 In some
countries with high growth in rural enrolment, the divide has remained the same as they are also
experiencing significant growth in urban enrolment (Costa Rica).
Table 5. Net primary urban and rural enrolment ratios, annual growth in urban and rural
primary enrolment and average annual rate of growth in the rural/urban divide by
country. Pre- and post-Dakar periods.
Country
Brazil
Chile
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Paraguay
Peru
Initial situation
Urban NPER Rural NPER Rural-urban
Percentage
difference
82.90
89.67
70.60
87.30
82.26
92.18
84.10
79.51
72.89
62.19
88.01
67.40
79.86
70.71
88.34
74.78
77.93
62.59
-20.71
-1.65
-3.20
-7.45
-11.55
-3.85
-9.32
-1.59
-10.30
Urban
NPER
GR
0.87
0.37
2.05
0.59
0.70
0.80
0.90
3.32
8.35
Annual growth rate
Rural NPER Rural-urban
GR
Percentage
difference
3.53
0.52
2.50
1.31
1.53
2.06
1.81
2.81
13.51
2.65
0.15
0.45
0.71
0.83
1.26
0.90
-0.51
5.16
NPER
divide GR
-2.54
-0.14
-0.51
-0.71
-0.81
-1.26
-0.74
0.41
-4.58
Table 6. Net secondary urban and rural enrolment ratios, annual growth in urban and rural
secondary enrolment and average annual rate of growth in the rural/urban divide by
country. Pre- and post-Dakar periods.
Initial situation
Annual growth rate
Urban NSER Rural NSER Rural-urban Urban NSER Rural NSER Rural-urban
difference
GR
GR
difference
Brazil
Chile
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Paraguay
Peru
54.40
76.91
41.50
63.88
36.54
71.22
52.91
36.86
69.20
18.95
59.23
23.30
26.56
6.85
46.04
17.04
13.19
37.02
-35.45
-17.69
-18.20
-37.32
-29.69
-25.18
-35.88
-23.67
-32.18
3.44
0.92
5.56
0.00
2.85
-0.69
3.07
0.46
1.84
10.92
3.26
8.57
5.59
11.16
6.80
9.62
6.27
5.41
7.48
2.34
3.00
5.58
8.31
7.49
6.55
5.80
3.57
GR NSER
divide
-6.70
-2.20
-2.75
-5.24
-7.35
-6.76
-6.38
-5.19
-3.51
Lastly, interregional variations measured using the variation coefficients have also decreased.
12
With the sole exception of Paraguay.
–7–
Table 7. Net primary and secondary urban and rural enrolment ratios. Average annual rate
of growth in differences between regions by country.
Country
Brazil
Chile
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Paraguay
Peru
Urban NPER
CVGR 13
Rural NPER
CVGR
Urban NSER
CVGR
Rural NSER
CVGR
-11.94
0.74
-2.07
-7.42
-13.31
-15.91
0.00
-26.77
-23.69
-15.71
-3.24
-2.93
5.13
-4.54
-24.46
-16.12
-8.15
-32.93
-4.51
-4.85
-6.91
-19.06
-4.31
-3.67
-9.33
-8.73
2.04
-8.12
-4.33
-4.36
-7.21
-3.65
-12.27
-5.67
-17.26
-0.24
Although a general upward trend in terms of enrolment and a reduction in interregional differences
can be seen, the forms of growth in the region are distinct.
The aim of this section is to assess how the countries have arrived at their current situation by
identifying various recent trend configurations.
Urban areas
Focusing on particular cases, it is possible to identify various ways in which enrolment processes in
the region have grown. Brazil and Chile attained significant primary and secondary enrolment, but
by different routes: Chile, beginning at a high level, had slow growth, whereas Brazil had higher
annual increases.
Costa Rica and Brazil stand out from the group owing to their significant increase in secondary
enrolment. Nevertheless, this was achieved in different ways. While in Costa Rica most adolescents
who enter school or remain enrolled have an impact almost exclusively on the secondary
involvement ratio, in Brazil, enrolment of this group also involves greater growth at the primary
level.
Honduras and Nicaragua also stand out because of their significant annual growth in secondary
enrolment, but unlike Brazil and Costa Rica, they remain among the countries with the lowest
enrolment ratios.
Peru and Paraguay have witnessed major growth in primary enrolment but not in secondary. In
Paraguay, more pupils continue to enter primary school, including those of secondary school-age.
13
CVGR refers to coefficients of variation annual growth rate.
–8–
Table 8. Net enrolment ratio by level and age-specific secondary enrolment ratios. Pre- and
post-Dakar periods. Grouping of countries by final results.
Urban areas.
Final results
Initial
ASER
Initial
NPER
Final
NPER
Initial
NSER
Final
NSER
Brazil
82.9
90.4
54.4
76.3
78.9
90.2
Chile
89.7
92.0
76.9
82.0
91.7
94.9
41.5
71.3
86.4
91.6
Final
ASER
Year 0
Year 1
1992
2002
1996
2003
1995
2005
Costa Rica
70.6
86.5
1997
2003
90.5
63.9
63.9
76.0
74.8
2004
Intermediate El Salvador
ratios
Mexico
87.3
2000
92.2
95.2
71.2
69.3
78.1
77.4
1997
2000
Peru
72.9
92.7
69.2
73.1
88.0
91.7
1990
2001
Honduras
82.3
88.9
36.5
49.8
68.8
71.3
1998
2001
1995
2000
High ratios
Low ratios
Country
Nicaragua
84.1
86.4
52.9
57.9
70.2
74.5
Paraguay
79.5
93.6
36.9
37.7
77.4
85.0
Table 9. Average annual rate of growth in net enrolment ratios by level and in age-specific
secondary enrolment ratios. Pre- and post-Dakar periods. Grouping of countries by
final results.
Urban areas.
Final results
High ratios
Intermediate
ratios
Low ratios
Country
Brazil
Chile
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Mexico
Peru
Honduras
Nicaragua
Paraguay
Annual
NPER GR
Annual NSER GR
Annual ASER
GR
0.9
0.4
2.1
0.6
0.8
8.4
0.7
0.9
3.3
3.4
0.9
5.6
0.0
-0.7
1.8
2.9
3.1
0.5
1.4
0.5
0.6
-0.3
-0.2
1.4
0.3
2.0
1.9
Analysis of this data demonstrates that the way in which adolescent enrolment rises is significant. It
shows that a rise in secondary school-age adolescent enrolment ratios can occur in two
different ways: (a) by adolescents entering at the primary level, with an age lag; and (b) by
adolescents entering at the secondary level. These differences demonstrate the relationship
between the net and age-specific secondary enrolment ratios.
Different predictions can be made with regard to the countries’ future enrolment ratios depending
on the impact of these two processes. To do so, we can examine enrolment trends. By calculating
the gaps between age-specific and net secondary enrolment ratios at the beginning and the end of
the period under study, it is possible to determine whether the trends have changed in the countries
concerned. A smaller gap would mean that more adolescents are entering school at the official age
(as is happening in Costa Rica) whereas a gap that remains unchanged would point to a slowdown
in the growth of secondary enrolment (as is the case in Paraguay). Although most countries have
lesser gaps than Paraguay, they maintain them over time. This means that in most countries, there is
–9–
still a sizable group of adolescents who have dropped out before completing primary school. In this
context, enrolling adolescents in the school system does not only mean expanding secondary
education, but is a necessary condition for achieving universal primary education.
Table 10. Secondary enrolment gap in the pre- and post-Dakar periods by country.
Urban areas.
Country
Brazil
Chile
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Mexico
Peru
Honduras
Nicaragua
Paraguay
*
Secondary
enrolment gap*
initial situation
1.5
1.2
2.1
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.9
1.3
2.1
Secondary
enrolment gap
final situation
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.3
2.3
Relationship between the age-specific secondary enrolment ratio and the net secondary enrolment ratio.
Rural areas
Turning now to developments between the two periods in rural areas of Brazil, Costa Rica and Peru,
as well as Honduras, Nicaragua and Paraguay, there was initially a greater number of secondaryschool age adolescents enrolled in primary school than at the level corresponding to their age.
The first three countries managed to reverse this situation over the 10-year period by greater
enrolment of children and adolescents at the levels corresponding to their age in both primary and
secondary school. This is indicated by the high annual primary enrolment ratios on the one hand,
and the fact that the net annual secondary growth ratio was greater than that of age-specific
secondary growth, on the other.
Honduras and Paraguay could well be following the same course as Brazil, Costa Rica and Peru,
since their rate of growth in secondary enrolment is highest among the official secondary schoolage population, meaning that a significant proportion are entering school at the correct level. This
may be the result of policies to promote the opening of schools in these areas.
The situation of Nicaragua is unique, since according to its growth rate it is enrolling pupils of a
more advanced age in primary and secondary education in similar proportions. There are more
adolescents enrolled in primary school than in secondary school.
– 10 –
Table 11. Net enrolment ratios by level and age-specific secondary enrolment ratios. Pre- and
post-Dakar periods. Grouping of countries by final results.
Rural areas.
Year 0
Year 1
Country
Initial
NPER
Final
NPER
Initial
NSER
Final
NSER
Initial
ASER
Final
ASER
87.9
18.9
53.4
56.6
84.7
1992
2002 Brazil
62.2
1996
2003 Chile
88.0
91.3
59.2
74.1
79.6
89.8
1995
2005 Costa Rica
67.4
86.3
23.3
53.0
67.0
79.2
1997
2003 El Salvador
79.9
86.3
26.6
36.8
48.6
55.7
1990
2001 Honduras
70.7
83.6
6.8
21.9
41.2
49.7
2000
2004 Mexico
88.3
95.9
46.0
59.9
62.0
71.3
1998
2001 Nicaragua
74.8
78.9
17.0
22.4
39.7
50.8
1995
2000 Paraguay
77.9
89.5
13.2
17.9
58.4
65.6
1997
2000 Peru
62.6
91.5
37.0
43.4
74.7
79.3
Table 12. Average annual rate of growth in net enrolment ratios by level and in age-specific
secondary enrolment ratios. Pre- and post-Dakar periods. Grouping of countries by
final results.
Rural areas.
Final results
High ratios
Intermediate
ratios
Low ratios
Country
Chile
Mexico
Brazil
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Peru
Honduras
Nicaragua
Paraguay
NPER annual
growth rate
0.5
2.1
3.5
2.5
1.3
13.5
1.5
1.8
2.8
NSER annual
growth rate
3.3
6.8
10.9
8.6
5.6
5.4
11.2
9.6
6.3
ASER annual
growth rate
1.7
3.5
4.1
1.7
2.3
2.0
1.7
8.6
2.4
Table 13. Secondary enrolment gaps in pre- and post-Dakar periods by country.
Rural areas.
Country
Brazil
Chile
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Mexico
Peru
Honduras
Nicaragua
Paraguay
*
Secondary
enrolment gap*
Initial situation
3.0
1.3
2.9
1.8
6.1
1.3
2.3
4.4
2.0
Secondary
enrolment gap
Final situation
1.6
1.2
1.5
1.5
2.3
1.2
2.3
3.7
1.8
Relationship between the age-specific secondary enrolment ratio and the net secondary enrolment ratio.
– 11 –
3 – Absence of enrolment in primary school
We have seen that primary enrolment in the various countries appears widespread, although there
are sometimes significant lag indexes. Nevertheless, in some countries of the region, a significant
proportion of primary school-age children have never attended school. 14 The overarching question
of this chapter is – are there high percentages of children not receiving any schooling or is it
actually a case of late entry into the education system?
In order to assess whether children are entering primary school later than expected, we have
compared the attendance rates for various age groups. Comparing the attendance rates for first
grade-age children with those of children two years older, we find significant variations between
countries. This is an initial indicator of late entry into the education system. In most countries,
attendance ultimately exceeds 95%. Taking into account that dropouts may affect the latter
indicator, the percentage of children who have never attended school appears to be decreasing.
The case of rural Chile is a good example of this phenomenon. Here, only 86% of children who
should enter the primary level are actually attending school. Nevertheless, almost 100% of children
two years older are in school. Although there is a lag, everyone eventually receives an education.
This is a clear example of late entry.
Table 14. Percentage of children who have never attended primary school and attendance
rates by age, broken down by country. Pre- and post-Dakar periods.
Urban areas.
Country
Peru
Chile
Costa Rica
Mexico
Brazil
Paraguay
Bolivia
El Salvador
Honduras
Nicaragua
Guatemala
14
15
16
Attendance rate
Percentage (%) Attendance rate
for children two
who never
for official
years older than
15
attended at
starting age
official starting
primary level
age 16
0.30
0.50
0.50
1.40
1.80
2.50
3.20
3.30
4.50
5.30
9.20
97.40
98.10
98.60
97.50
96.30
94.50
91.10
91.80
83.70
90.90
82.70
98.40
99.60
100.00
99.10
98.50
99.00
96.60
95.30
97.30
95.60
92.80
Percentage
difference
1.00
1.50
1.40
1.60
2.20
4.50
5.50
3.50
13.60
4.70
10.10
In urban areas, the percentage of children who have never attended primary school is less than 4% in most
countries. In rural areas, this figure is higher.
The age corresponding to the official age for starting primary school.
This refers to children who are two years older than the official age for starting primary school.
– 12 –
Table 15. Percentage of children who have never attended primary school and
attendance rates by age, broken down by country. Pre- and post-Dakar
periods.
Rural areas.
Country
Mexico
Costa Rica
Peru
Chile
Brazil
Bolivia
Paraguay
El Salvador
Honduras
Nicaragua
Guatemala
Attendance rate
Percentage (%)
Attendance rate for children two
who never
for official
years older than
attended at
starting age
official starting
primary level
age
1.20
97.50
99.30
1.70
91.80
99.50
2.10
88.70
95.00
2.40
86.50
99.70
3.30
92.80
97.40
7.80
72.50
95.30
8.00
75.30
97.00
8.40
80.00
91.50
9.00
74.70
92.30
15.70
75.20
87.70
18.20
65.60
82.60
Percentage
difference
1.80
7.70
6.30
13.20
4.60
22.80
21.70
11.50
17.60
12.50
17.00
There is also a group of countries where – particularly in rural areas – late entry occurs, and at the
same time, the attendance rate for older children does not exceed 92% (sometimes dropping to
83%). This is the case of El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala. Does late entry coexist
here with a population that has never attended school?
Assuming that those who fail to enter school two years late are unlikely to attend school in the
future, it is possible to clearly define the phenomenon of school non-attenders. Looking at this
group of countries, the percentage of children who never attended primary school was calculated for
the various age groups. 17 Noteworthy in this regard are Nicaragua and Guatemala where more than
10% of children aged nine living in rural areas have never attended school. In these countries, the
two trends that we are endeavouring to identify appear to coexist.
Moreover, in all these countries, the percentage of children enrolled later than at the official age
exceeds 50%.
Table 16. Percentage of children who never attended primary school in total and by age,
broken down by rural and urban areas. Pre- and post-Dakar periods. Countries
with the highest non-attendance levels.
Area
Urban
Rural
*
17
Country
Guatemala
El Salvador
Honduras
Nicaragua
Guatemala
Percentage
Percentage
(%) who
(%) who fail
never
to enter at
attended at
the official
primary level starting age
9.18
8.42
9.02
15.67
18.16
15.90
19.61
24.86
24.80
34.16
Percentage
(%) who fail
to enter at
one year
after the
official
starting age
11.66
9.31
12.44
16.50
19.72
Percentage
(%) who fail
to enter at
two years
after the
official
starting age
7.02
6.82
6.51
10.38
15.97
Age gap*
55.86
65.21
73.83
58.16
53.24
Indicates the percentage of children who enrolled later than the official age.
This disaggregation was not possible for the other countries owing to the small number of cases.
– 13 –
Lastly, in answer to the initial question, it can be said that (a) in all the countries where a significant
percentage of primary school-age children have never attended school, there is also significant late
entry into education; and (b) while this characteristic is shared, variations are found between
countries where attendance exceeds 95% in older children, and countries where attendance
continues to be lower, even among older children. In these cases, non-attendance seems to coexist
with late entry.
4 – Decreasing growth in educational expansion processes
As already mentioned, there is an upward trend in enrolment ratios, particularly in the most
disadvantaged areas. Nevertheless, within this general trend, there are various forms of growth in
the different countries. This section will endeavour to propose an explanation for these trends. In
order to examine the regional and urban variations in more depth, data disaggregated by region for
each country will be used.
Enrolment is generally on the rise, but this is largely happening in the most disadvantaged areas,
leading to the conclusion that the increase in enrolment is not linear and that it could even see a
decline. This situation is illustrated by the graphs below, in which the growth in enrolment ratios is
linked to the initial values of these ratios. In both cases, it can be seen – as would be expected – that
the lowest starting points correspond to a higher growth ratio. Nevertheless, it can also be seen that
when enrolment becomes widespread, growth tends to flatten out.
To illustrate this process, the graphs present two contrasting situations. Graph 1 shows widespread
and homogeneous primary enrolment in urban areas, while graph 2 shows heterogeneous and
limited net secondary enrolment in rural areas. This demonstrates how enrolment growth flattens
out when it becomes widespread. In graph 1, enrolment growth begins to plateau at 80%. In
graph 2, where enrolment does not reach 80% in any case, no plateau is seen.
Graph 1. Urban NPER growth rate
Graph 2. Rural NSER growth rate
20
20
PAÍS
15
PAÍS
15
Paraguay
Paraguay
10
Nicaragua
México
Honduras
5
El Salvador
Costa Rica
0
Chile
-5
Brasil
0
20
10
40
30
TNEP inicial Ur
60
50
80
70
100
90
Tasa crecimiento NES Ru
Tasa crecimiento NEP Ur
10
Nicaragua
México
Honduras
5
El Salvador
Costa Rica
0
Chile
-5
Brasil
0
20
10
40
30
60
50
80
70
100
90
TNES inicial Ru
5 – Relationship between enrolment growth and other social indicators
It is logical to assume that a country’s rate of growth is associated with its socioeconomic
characteristics, such as the degree of poverty. Initially, there appears to be an association between
extreme poverty (measured by the percentage of critically overcrowded households) and very low
school enrolment, meaning that a fixed minimum threshold is necessary to ensure that children and
adolescents attend school. This is particularly true in countries where adolescent enrolment is low,
even when adolescents going to primary school are counted. Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua
– 14 –
have both the greatest proportion of households suffering from critical overcrowding and the lowest
enrolment ratios. However, Paraguay bucks this trend, with less extreme poverty than the other
countries, but with similar results in terms of education. Lastly, in Bolivia, while the percentage of
households suffering from critical overcrowding is among the highest in the region (falling in line
with Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua), its educational situation is better than that of these other
countries.
In contrast, countries with less poverty tend to have the highest enrolment levels. This is clearly
seen in urban areas in Chile and Brazil.
Table 17. Net enrolment ratios by level in urban and rural areas, age-specific secondary
enrolment ratios in urban and rural areas and percentage of criticallyovercrowded households 18 in urban and rural areas according to country. Pre- and
post-Dakar periods.
Country
Urban
NPER
Rural
NPER
Urban
NSER
Rural
NSER
Urban
ASER
Rural
ASER
Percentage
(%) of urban
households
with
critical
overcrowding
Percentage
(%) of rural
households
with
critical
overcrowding
Bolivia
88.8
84.6
74.2
43.2
91.5
74.7
29.6
42.3
Brazil
90.4
87.9
76.3
53.4
90.2
84.7
7.5
7.7
Chile
92
91.3
82
74.1
94.9
89.8
3.5
5.1
86.5
86.3
71.3
53
91.6
79.2
.
.
Costa Rica
El Salvador
90.5
86.3
63.9
36.8
74.8
55.7
13.2
37.8
Guatemala
83.2
74.7
47.2
12.7
64.9
37.1
27.8
56
Honduras
88.9
83.6
49.8
21.9
71.3
49.7
27.6
52.9
Mexico
95.2
95.9
69.3
59.9
77.4
71.3
13.1
21.2
Paraguay
93.6
89.5
37.7
17.9
85
65.6
11.2
25.7
Peru
92.7
91.5
73.1
43.4
91.7
79.3
9.7
21.2
Nicaragua
86.4
78.9
57.9
22.4
74.5
50.8
37.6
55.1
In conclusion, the data demonstrate the predicted relationship between poverty levels and the extent
of educational coverage. This has already been shown by other studies undertaken to analyse the
relationship between living conditions and access to education.
The situation becomes more complex when considering the relationship between poverty levels and
the rate of growth of enrolment ratios. Two theories may be considered here, which lead to opposite
conclusions. One theory suggests that because enrolment ratios tend to be lower in the most
impoverished areas and because the lower the ratios are, the faster they increase, there should be a
positive relationship between poverty levels and increases in enrolment ratios. Alternatively, it
could be suggested that it is more difficult to implement strategies enabling significant progress in
enrolment levels in the most impoverished areas, indicating a negative relationship between the two
phenomena.
Beginning with an analysis of secondary enrolment – where the most difficulties in access have
been found – it can be seen that in both urban and rural areas, the countries with the greatest growth
in net secondary enrolment ratios are Honduras, Nicaragua, Brazil and Costa Rica. Among these
four countries, there appear to be two sub-groups: Nicaragua and Honduras – with a greater
18
Critical overcrowding is considered as those homes in which more than three (3) people live per room.
– 15 –
percentage of critically overcrowded households and of children aged under six – and Brazil and
Costa Rica with lower poverty levels.
This initial analysis fails to find a clear relationship between increases in educational indicators and
socio-economic factors.
Table 18. Annual growth rate in net secondary enrolment in the pre- and post-Dakar period,
percentage of children aged under six and percentage of critically overcrowded
households in the post-Dakar period, by country.
Urban areas.
Country
NSER GR
Mexico
-0.7
Percentage (%) Percentage (%)
of children aged
of critical
under six
overcrowding
11.5
15.2
El Salvador
0.0
12.0
18.0
Paraguay
0.5
13.9
14.0
Chile
0.9
9.2
6.9
Peru
1.8
11.8
13.1
Honduras
2.9
14.2
41.9
Nicaragua
3.1
13.1
44.0
Brazil
3.4
10.3
10.1
Costa Rica
5.6
10.3
.
Table 19.
Annual growth rate in net secondary enrolment in the pre- and post-Dakar
period, percentage of children aged under six and percentage of critically
overcrowded households in the post-Dakar period, by country.
Rural areas.
Country
NSER GR
Percentage (%)
Percentage
of children aged (%) of critical
under six
overcrowding
Chile
3.3
8.8
10.7
Peru
5.4
13.9
29.8
El Salvador
5.6
15.0
47.9
Paraguay
6.3
17.2
29.1
Mexico
6.8
13.5
32.9
Costa Rica
8.6
12.5
.
Nicaragua
9.6
16.8
59.1
Brazil
10.9
12.1
11.5
Honduras
11.2
17.7
69.8
Nevertheless, by ranking the countries by their net secondary enrolment ratios in the pre- and postDakar periods, we observe that the countries with higher levels of enrolment and lower levels of
poverty were able to improve their situation relative to the rest. This does not happen in countries
where the deficits are greater. The urban areas of Brazil and Costa Rica thus improved their
situation relative to the other countries (moving from fifth and eighth place to first and fourth place
respectively), while the situation of Honduras and Guatemala remained unchanged or worsened.
– 16 –
Table 20. Relative position of the countries 19 according to their net secondary enrolment
ratios in pre- and post-Dakar periods, by country.
Urban areas.
Country
NSER ranking
initial situation
NSER ranking
final situation
Brazil
5
1
Chile
1
2
Costa Rica
8
4
El Salvador
4
7
Honduras
7
8
Mexico
2
5
Nicaragua
6
6
Paraguay
9
9
Peru
3
3
Something similar occurs in rural areas, although since there is much greater variation between
countries, their relative positions remain somewhat more stable. It would seem that in rural areas
where the situations of the countries are more heterogeneous, changing their relative positions takes
more time.
Table 21. Relative position of the countries according to their net secondary enrolment ratios
in pre- and post-Dakar periods, by country.
Rural areas.
Country
NSER ranking
initial situation
NSER ranking
final situation
Brazil
6
5
Chile
1
1
Costa Rica
5
4
El Salvador
4
6
Honduras
9
9
Mexico
2
2
Nicaragua
7
7
Paraguay
8
8
Peru
3
3
Reference has been made throughout this paper to a group of countries in which the proportion of
adolescents enrolled in primary school is greater than those in secondary school. While decreasing
over time in all the countries, these differences are more or less significant depending on the level
of poverty. Brazil and Costa Rica have thus had a greater decrease in the percentage of adolescents
in primary education than Honduras and Nicaragua, in both urban and rural areas.
19
In order to rank the countries according to their relative position, the net enrolment ratios for 1995 (initial
situation) and 2005 (final situation) were used.
– 17 –
Table 22. Growth rate in the pre- and post-Dakar periods of the proportion of adolescents
enrolled at primary level, by country.
Urban areas.
Country
Growth rate of the
proportion of adolescents
enrolled at primary level
Brazil
-6.8
Chile
-2.4
Costa Rica
-8.2
El Salvador
-1.5
Honduras
-3.9
México
4.3
Nicaragua
-3.3
Paraguay
1.2
Peru
-1.7
Table 23. Growth rate in the pre- and post-Dakar periods of the proportion of adolescents
enrolled at primary level, by country.
Rural areas.
Country
Growth rate of the
proportion of adolescents
enrolled at primary level
Brazil
-5.7
Chile
-5.3
Costa Rica
-6.6
El Salvador
-4.7
Honduras
-3.6
Mexico
-11.3
Nicaragua
-0.7
Paraguay
-1.2
Peru
-3.6
Lastly, the late entry of children into primary school has been noted. In cases such as that of Chile,
the non-enrolment of children can be explained entirely by late entry. In other countries, late entry
coexists with a portion of the population that never attends school (Nicaragua and Guatemala). In
this regard also, the differences are based on socio-economic factors. It is in countries with the
greatest percentage of critically overcrowded households that these two phenomena coexist.
Lastly, it can be said that, despite upward trends and improvements in various educational
indicators, this growth does not help the extremely poor countries to improve their relative position
in the region.
Conclusions
Understanding the logic of the region’s educational processes is a complex task, especially against
the background of the major economic, social and cultural changes now sweeping through Latin
America. An analysis that can not only describe the recent trends in the enrolment of children and
adolescents, but also determine which factors favour progress and which are obstacles to universal
– 18 –
education must rely on multiple information sources and increasingly complex methodological
strategies.
The data presented in this document are undoubtedly not sufficient to provide a thorough
understanding of the issues. The data make it possible to identify and measure specific phenomena,
but they are not adequate to the task of formulating explanations that go beyond pure description.
Still, it is possible to offer some theories and ideas that may stimulate new analyses of the data and,
at the same time, suggest some connections between the descriptive processes and social and
education policies. The last section presents observations along those lines, which emerge from the
principal findings that have been made.
(1)
Greater access to education and less inequality
At least three findings that emerge from the data are worthy of being considered in parallel:
• There has been a general rise in the region’s enrolment rates;
• This rise is the result of increasing numbers of adolescents in the schools;
• Increases in enrolment levels were highest in what were initially the most disadvantaged areas,
such as rural communities or the poorest regions, resulting in a reduction in the educational
gaps between each country’s various regions.
These facts point to a period of significant expansion in education in the region, in which nearly all
children are entering school, and increasing numbers are remaining there. The trend towards
universal access, the fact that more adolescents are staying in school and the narrowing of the
educational divide support a positive assessment of recent trends in Latin America.
This should not be surprising. In principle, this is because Latin American education systems have
shown, from their beginnings at the turn of the twentieth century, almost constant growth and
expansion within the various social sectors. Decade after decade, increases in access to education
and in enrolment levels have been noted.
Moreover, many efforts have been made since the beginning of the 1990s to consolidate progress
towards education for all. This is in response to education’s central place in the public policy
agenda issuing from the development model that has been consolidated since that time. Nearly all
the region’s countries have made sweeping educational reforms, designed to reach the goal of
universal secondary education and increase the length of compulsory education.
In addition to these reforms, various compensatory policies seeking to extend access to education to
poor and rural communities in the region have become widespread. These policies provided for
additional transfers of funds to support schools serving the most disadvantaged social sectors and
the families themselves, through scholarships.
At the same time, the issue of indigenous education became a much more powerful challenge than
in previous decades, giving rise to the development of many intercultural education programmes
seeking to boost enrolment among the region’s indigenous communities.
These specific policy measures implemented by the region’s States coincided with a broad debate
that confirmed education as an inalienable right and bound States to guarantee it. This growing
debate on the role of education in the region’s new development policy and the strengthening of
– 19 –
education from a rights perspective has given rise to another phenomenon already noted in the
region – society’s growing demand for education.
Various qualitative studies conducted in Latin America have in fact shown an increasing tension
between the greater expectations put on education by families from the most disadvantaged sectors,
as well as a decline in the social conditions necessary for these expectations to become reality. 20
(2)
A remaining challenge in terms of access: secondary education
Two points have emerged from the data which will inevitably leave their mark on the educational
agenda for the coming years. On the one hand, in terms of access to and remaining in school, it can
be said that the region is close to achieving universal primary education. On the other hand, while
significant gains have been made in adolescent enrolment, much undoubtedly remains to be done to
ensure that all children complete primary and secondary school.
An indication that primary education is widespread is the coexistence of high net enrolment ratios at
this level with a significant gap between net secondary enrolment ratios and age-specific enrolment
ratios for adolescents. This gap demonstrates clearly that a significant number of adolescents remain
at the primary level. Furthermore, the number of primary school-age children in the region who do
not attend school is low. In those countries where this indicator is significant, most of the cases are
among the youngest children, meaning that it is more a problem of late entry than of access. While
nearly all children living in urban areas eventually enter the education system, the problem of lack
of access to primary education is much greater for those living in the more impoverished rural
areas.
At the secondary level, the perspective shifts. While many adolescents have entered the education
system, the data indicate that in many cases, and particularly in rural areas, this influx of pupils was
into primary schools. In these cases, the net secondary enrolment ratios remain very low.
(3)
Boosting educational goals: lack of enrolment when education is available
From the data it emerges that the highest growth in enrolment ratios is registered by the most
disadvantaged social sectors or groups. While various factors underlie this trend, one of the most
important is the rate of growth of the offer.
Most of the region’s countries provide universal coverage for the middle and upper classes –
essentially urban – in the age groups corresponding to primary and secondary education. Current
educational goals involve incorporating historically neglected social sectors and increasing the
range of ages to be enrolled. This has led to a significant effort to provide education where none has
been offered in the past, or to expand the existing offer. This expansion of the offer explains the
high rate of enrolment, especially in the lowest income sectors and in rural areas.
In any event, it is important to remember that in the process of moving towards fixed social goals,
the rhythm decreases as the indexes get closer to their final value. In the context of low enrolment,
for example, education forms part of what is known as “soft areas” of social policy, i.e. those
offering the least resistance to change. As offer begins to meet demand, society as a whole must
make greater efforts and invest more resources to achieve full enrolment. This is how education is
gradually moving into what are known as “hard areas” of social policy. Once education becomes a
hard area, the goal of attracting and retaining great numbers of children and adolescents in order to
20
Some of the research conducted by the UNESCO International Institute for Educational Planning (IIEP) in
Buenos Aires pertains to this phenomenon. See “Educación, reformas y equidad en los países de los Andes y el
Cono Sur” (Education, reform and equity in the Andean and Southern Cone countries).
– 20 –
provide them with quality education will require greater efforts, capable of removing any structural
obstacle. From an operational perspective, policy tools that were highly effective when the coverage
expansion processes began, or those that brought the education system to its current level of
attainment, are not necessarily the ones needed to attain the goal of quality education for all.
A turning point, which many countries in the region are reaching, is when the educational offer
begins to equal or exceed the demand from families and the community. As long as demand
exceeds supply, the rate of enrolment growth is determined almost exclusively by the capacity of
each State to increase the offer.
However, the greatest difficulty is in situations in which, although education is available, children
and adolescents do not take advantage of it. While this is particularly obvious in secondary
education, where the factors determining whether an adolescent remains in school are particularly
complex, the phenomenon does affect all levels. In such cases, actions necessary to ensure full
enrolment go beyond the possibilities of the education system and involve cultural, employment and
family issues and so forth.
As already noted, the region’s education systems have demonstrated significant capacity for
expansion decade after decade, since they were first established. Nevertheless, there are indications
that the current decade may be a turning point for countries that have made the greatest progress in
enrolling their children and adolescents. In societies in which the 90% enrolment threshold has been
crossed, the rate of growth tends to be almost zero, and there are even serious threats of a slight
decrease. 21
(4)
The relationship between educational expansion and poverty
The last significant finding concerns the relationship between the increase in enrolment ratios and
structural poverty levels, measured using indicators such as critical overcrowding and the relative
presence of children aged under six in the demographic structure. The rate of expansion of
education coverage, at both primary and secondary levels, was higher where initial coverage was
lower. Beyond this general trend, the data show that countries with the greatest structural poverty
have not managed to reach coverage indexes that would bring them nearer to the intermediate
positions of the Latin American region and that this expansion brought with it problems linked to
late entry and age lag. Therefore, even with high growth rates, the regions of Latin America with
the highest structural poverty indexes continue to be in the worst position in terms of net secondary
enrolment ratios. These same regions also have the greatest number of secondary school-age
children in primary school.
Poverty accounts for a good many but not all of the multiple factors impeding access to education.
For example, there is a set of factors linked to the geographical distribution of families and schools.
In countries with larger rural populations and more difficult terrain, obstacles to expansion are
linked to problems of physical inaccessibility and isolation that are not necessarily associated with
poverty.
However, the greatest difficulties can be seen in secondary education, where the reasons why
adolescents do not remain in school are truly diverse. Although the need to move into the labour
market is usually one of the reasons invoked most often in that regard – associated with low income
– the cultural dimension is also a significant challenge at this level, affecting even the urban middle
class.
21
This same trend was already identified and analysed in “Equidad educativa y desigualdad social. Desafíos de la
educación en el nuevo escenario latinoamericano” (Equitable education and social inequality. Educational
challenges in the new Latin American context) IIEP-UNESCO, Buenos Aires, López, 2005.
– 21 –
Indeed, secondary education today has to meet the challenge of producing an offer that is attractive
to young people, who form an entirely heterogeneous universe. The growth of what are known as
the new urban youth cultures has given rise to various scenarios on which adolescents’ socialization
and identity-building processes are based. In many cases, they represent a major obstacle for
educational institutions.
The difficulties in attaining full enrolment for adolescents and ensuring the goal of universal
secondary education far outweigh those issues linked to the problem of poverty. The imbalance
between the institutional proposals that define this level of education and the subjectivities of the
new youth cultures is perhaps one of the principal obstacles still to be removed and which is found
throughout the Latin American social spectrum.