Multiple Co-Benefits of a Fundamental
Energy Transformation
Perspectives from the Global Energy Assessment
Nebojša Nakićenović
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
Technische Universität Wien xx
[email protected]
ALPS International Symposium on “The frontiers of scenarios for climate
change research and assessment”, Nadao Hall, Tokyo – 9 February 2011
The Global Energy Assessment
IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
and its international partners present the
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org#2
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Towards a more Sustainable Future
● Initiated in 2006 and involves >300 CLAs and
LAs and >200 Anonymous Reviewers
● Peer-review coordinated by Review Editors is
complete - ongoing responses and revisions.
● Final report (Cambridge Univ. Press) in June
2011 followed by vigorous dissemination
3
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Integration of Knowledge Clusters
● Cluster I characterizes nature and magnitude of
challenges, and express them in selected
indicators
● Cluster II reviews existing and future resource
and technology options
● Cluster III integrates Cluster II elements into
systems, and links these to indicators from
Cluster I
● Cluster IV assesses policy options, and
specifically identifies policy packages that are
linked to scenarios meeting the needs, again in
an iterative fashion.
#4
Sponsoring Organizations
International Organizations
Governments/Agencies
GEF
IIASA
UNDESA
UNDP
UNEP
UNIDO
ESMAP (World Bank)
Austria - multi-year
European Union
Germany
Italy
Norway
Sweden - multi-year
USA (EPA, DoE)
Industry groups
Foundations
First Solar
Petrobras
WBCSD
WEC
UN Foundation
Climate Works Foundation
Global Environment & Technology
Foundation
#5
Global Energy Transformations
 Access to energy and ecosystem services
(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)
 Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating
climate change brings multiple co-benefits
 Energy transformations require R&D and
rapid technology diffusion & deployment
 Sustained energy investments are needed
and would result in multiple co-benefits
#6
Food for a Week, Darfur Refugees, Chad
© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Nakicenovic
Source: Menzel, 2005
#7
2010
Food for a Week, Germany
© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Nakicenovic
Source: Menzel, 2005
#8
2010
Mapping Energy Access
Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density
Billions of people:
Abject poverty: 1.3
Poor: 0.6
Less poor: 1.4
Middle class: 1.6
Rich: 1.2
Source: Gruebler et al, 2009
3.3
2.8
#9
Health Benefits of Pollution Control
(loss of stat. life expectancy - PM)
Source: Dentener et al, 2009
#10
Earth is Warming
Data: NASA 1880-2010
Global warming predicted
(Sawyer, Nature 1972,
Broecker, Science 1975)
#11
IPCC AR4 SRES A1B
Source: Realclimate 2010
#12
Global Carbon Emissions
#13
Global Energy Transformations
 Access to energy and ecosystem services
(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)
 Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating
climate change brings multiple co-benefits
 Energy transformations require R&D and
rapid technology diffusion & deployment
 Sustained energy investments are needed
and would result in multiple co-benefits
#14
Global Carbon Reservoirs
Atmosphere
850 GtC
Biomass
~500 GtC
Unconventional.
Gas
~1000 GtC
Oil
N.
N. Gas
Gas
GtC
~250 GtgC
~250GtC
~250 GtC ~250
UnconventonalOil
~1150 GtgC
Soils
~1,500 GtC
Coal
~ 12,000 GtC
Unconventional Hydrocarbons
15,000 to 40,000 GtC
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Estimated shale gas resource
14,803 TCF ≈ 15,600 EJ
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#17
#18
Global Primary Energy
1000
900
Primary Energy (EJ)
800
700
600
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Microchip
Commercial
energy
Renewables
500
Television
Vacuum
400
300
Gas
Electric
engine
engine
Oil
200
100
0
1850
Nuclear
Coal
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
#19
Global Primary Energy
1000
900
Primary Energy (EJ)
800
700
600
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Microchip
Commercial
energy
Renewables
500
Television
Vacuum
400
300
Gas
Electric
engine
engine
Oil
200
100
0
1850
Nuclear
Coal
Biomass
1900
1950
2000
2050
#20
0
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
WBGU
WEC-C1
[r]evolution
POLES
ETP BLUE
MERGE-ETL
REMINS-ADAM
REMINS-RECIPE
RCP 3-PD
GEA-Supply
GEA Efficiency
GEA -Mix
EJ Primary Energy
Global Primary Energy
800
700
600
500
400
300
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
200
100
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Global Energy Transformations
 Access to energy and ecosystem services
(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)
 Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating
climate change brings multiple co-benefits
 Energy transformations require R&D and
rapid technology diffusion & deployment
 Sustained energy investments are needed
and would result in multiple co-benefits
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Example of savings by reconstruction
Before reconstruction
over 150 kWh/(m²a)
Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-90%
15 kWh/(m²a)
Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006
#23
Area Occupied by Various Transport Modes
Source: WBCSD, 2005
#24
Energy SuperGrid and MagLev
Source: EPRI
#25
Potential Synergies between New Energy and
Transport Infrastructures: Asian “Supergrid”
Super Cables
Power lines
Electric Power Research institute ©
MAGLEV
Source:
Y. Yamagata, NIES. 2010
Global Energy Transformations
 Access to energy and ecosystem services
(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)
 Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating
climate change brings multiple co-benefits
 Energy transformations require R&D and
rapid technology diffusion & deployment
 Sustained energy investments are needed
and would result in multiple co-benefits
#27
Co-Benefits of Energy Investments
#28
Co-Benefits of Energy Investments
#29
Trade-Offs & Co-Benefits
● With GEA Scenarios: Explore implications of
global climate mitigation for local energy
security concerns and air pollution control
 Explore development of security indicators in
2oC climate scenarios
 Assess potential economic co-benefits of
different combinations of security and climate
policies
 Multi-Criteria Analysis to understand policy
interactions (security/pollution/climate)
#30
Joint Modeling Framework
NAM
PAO
OECD
WEU
EEU
REFS
FSU
MEA
AFR
ALM
LAM
SAS
PAS
ASIA
CPA
Source: IIASA
9 SAS South Asia
1 NAM North America
5 FSU Former Soviet Union
Source:
10 PAS Other Pacific
Asia
2 LAM Latin America & The Caribbean 6 MEA Middle East & North Africa
11 PAO Pacific OECD
3 WEU Western Europe
7 AFR Sub-Saharan Africa
4 EEU Central & Eastern Europe
8 CPA Centrally Planned Asia & China
Systems engineering
global energy model
(MESSAGE)
Source: IIASA
O’Neill, B.C., K. Riahi, and I. Keppo , 2010 (PNAS)
Global climate model
Multi-criteria analysis
tool
(MAGICC)
(MCAA)
Create wide range of scenarios:
Different stringency for regional energy import constraints
Different levels of climate mitigation
Different stringency of pollution control
#31
Energy Transformations
depend on the ranking of policy priorities
Worst
Environment
Economy
Best
Mid-term GHG/pollutant
emissions levels (2050)
+80%
-80%
Long-term climate target
(prob. of 2 ºC warming)
0%
100%
High
Low
Regional energy trade
(share of PE)
100%
0%
Diversity of trade (index)
Low
High
Total energy system cost
X trill
Y trill
Pollution and health
impacts (years of life lost)
Energy
Security
More preferable, but
more difficult
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[email protected]
www.IIASA.ac.at
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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