UVIC SSL W ORKING PAPER 05-014 MARCH 2005 Road Classification Schemes – Good Indicators of Traffic Volume? Eleanor M. Setton, Perry W. Hystad, C. Peter Keller Spatial Sciences Laboratories, Department of Geography, University of Victoria Address correspondence to Eleanor Setton, Geography Department, University of Victoria, PO BOX 3050 STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 3P5. E-mail: [email protected]. We compare three road classification systems to actual traffic counts in order to assess how well the classification systems perform as indicators of traffic volume, assuming that clear differentiation of traffic volumes among classes is desirable. Actual traffic counts were obtained for 215 locations in the Greater Vancouver Regional District(GVRD); the British Columbia provincial Digital Road Atlas (DRA) and DMTI CanMap© road network provided road classification systems. Modelled traffic volumes for the GVRD, provided by TransLink, are also used to evaluate the classification systems. Based on the sample of actual traffic counts, we conclude that DRA road classes provide the best differentiation of traffic volume, although within class variation is substantial. Modelled traffic counts are not well differentiated by either the DRA road class or subclass, indicating either poor model performance or sample bias. A comparison of actual traffic count means for three regions in the study area with different total population and population densities showed no spatial pattern that would explain within class variation. Future research on within class variation is required, using a larger sample of actual traffic counts. Overall, the use of road classes to indicate level of exposure to traffic-related air pollution should be approached with caution, as significant exposure misclassification could occur. Acknowledgements: This research has been funded by the BC Centre for Disease Control, via a grant provided by Health Canada as part of the ongoing Border Air Quality Strategy agreement between Canada and the United States. Special thanks to all participating municipalities for providing actual traffic count data, and to TransLink for providing modelled traffic volumes. Key Words: actual traffic counts, modelled traffic volume, variability, exposure, GIS Introduction Methods for indirectly assessing personal exposure to traffic-related air pollution generally rely on measuring proximity to roads and may incorporate some estimate of traffic volume. Where traffic volumes are available, these numerical values can be used directly. In cases where traffic volumes are not available, road class may be used as a surrogate for traffic volume, assuming some hierarchy of traffic volume associated with, for example, highways, major roads, minor roads, and local roads. When road class is used as a surrogate for traffic volume in an exposure assessment, each road class must represent a distinct traffic volume level in order to avoid exposure misclassification. ©SPATIAL SCIENCES LABORATORIES OCCASIONAL PAPERS SERIES 2005 1 UVIC SSL W ORKING PAPER 05-014 MARCH 2005 The objective of this report is to explore how well existing road classifications in British Columbia differentiate traffic volume, and to assess opportunities for developing a method for estimating traffic volumes in areas where no actual traffic counts exist, based on existing road classifications. We evaluate three road classifications that are available for the province of British Columbia (BC) – a six-level system used in the commercially available DMTI Canmap© street network; and a five- and eight-level system, both available in the BC government’s Digital Road Atlas (DRA) (see Table1). Actual and modelled traffic counts in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) are used to assess how well each classification system differentiates traffic volume and to explore regional differences that might support the development of a model of traffic volume based on road class. Methods Existing traffic counts (average daily traffic volume) at 215 locations in the GVRD were acquired from local jurisdictions, each of which was contacted and asked to provide traffic counts for at least 30 road segments covering a broad range of road classes. This method was deemed more feasible than developing a random sample based on road class, given the time frame and resources available for data collection, and the lack of data for many road segments throughout the study area. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to create point locations for each traffic count, and to associate the traffic count with the appropriate road segment in the DMTI and DRA street networks. TransLink (the transit authority in the GVRD) provided GISready modelled traffic counts. Both actual and modelled traffic counts for each road class in the GVRD, and for each road class in three sub-regions of the GVRD were compared using simple descriptive statistics and box plots. Table 1. Existing Road Classifications DMTI - Class Expressway Principal Highway Secondary Highway Major Road Local Road Description Usually four lanes + and very limited access to adjacent land uses Conduits for intra-city traffic, multi-lane, large traffic capacity Thoroughfare, large traffic capacity, generally multilane Routes for shorter trips within the city/ Residential access DRA – Class Freeway Highway Arterial Collector Local Description Controlled access, typically divided Primary or secondary provincial highway, single or multilane Thoroughfare, large traffic capacity, generally multilane Connects areas to cross town, generally one lane each way. Residential roads DRA – Subclass Freeway Highway Major Highway Minor Arterial Major Arterial Minor Collector Major Collector Minor Local Description Controlled access, typically divided A primary provincial highway A secondary provincial highway Thoroughfare, large traffic capacity, more than 2 lanes Thoroughfare, medium traffic capacity, 2 lanes (one each way) Connects areas to cross town, more than 2 lanes Connects areas to cross town, one lane each way. Residential roads ©SPATIAL SCIENCES LABORATORIES OCCASIONAL PAPERS SERIES 2005 2 UVIC SSL W ORKING PAPER 05-014 MARCH 2005 Results and Discussion Comparison of DMTI and DRA road classes based on actual traffic counts. A comparison of the mean actual traffic count for each class used in the DMTI and DRA datasets suggests that DRA ‘class’ may provide better distinction of traffic volume than DRA ‘subclass’ or the DMTI ‘class’ in terms of assigning traffic-related exposure. Table 2 shows that three of the five DMTI classes have similar means - major, highway secondary, and highway principal. DRA subclasses show similar means for minor and major collector, and for minor and major arterial and minor highway. The means of actual traffic counts for DRA classes suggest that DRA classes appear to capture distinct groups of traffic volumes, suitable for indicating different levels of exposure to traffic-related pollution. Table 2. Mean of actual traffic counts for road classes DMTI Class Mean DRA Class Mean DRA Subclass Mean Local 6,511 Local 3,976 Local 4,126 Major 15,207 Collector 8,953 Collector minor 8,580 Collector major 9,694 Arterial minor 15,321 Arterial major 17,407 Highway minor 22,242 Highway major 36,684 Highway Secondary Highway Principal Expressway 18,254 21,025 113,789 Arterial Highway Freeway 18,457 27,961 113,789 Freeway 113,789 Box plots of the traffic counts associated with the DMTI classification (Figure 1) show good differentiation between local and other road classes, but there appears to be much less differentiation among major, secondary highway, and principle highway classes. Notably, only one actual traffic count was associated with a secondary highway, which may indicate that this class is rarely used or that the provided sample is biased. Within class variability as indicated by standard deviations is high for local and major roads (Table 3). For local roads, the mean is 6,511 and the standard deviation is 5,895. For major roads, the mean is 15,207 while the standard deviation is 10,831. Within class variability does decline moving up the hierarchy from local roads up to expressways. These large standard deviations support the conclusion that there is relatively poor differentiation of traffic volumes between classes in most cases. In contrast, the box plots of traffic counts associated with DRA ‘class’ show there are reasonable sample sizes for local, collector and arterial classes (53, 86, and 65 respectively), but relatively few actual traffic counts available for highway and freeway classes (Figure 2). This is not unreasonable, as there are far fewer highways and freeways in comparison to local, collector, and arterial roads in the GVRD. There appears to be better differentiation among classes than that shown in the DMTI data, as there is less overlap between the boxes (representing the middle 50 percent of values) and whiskers (representing the lower 25 and upper 75 percent of values). ©SPATIAL SCIENCES LABORATORIES OCCASIONAL PAPERS SERIES 2005 3 UVIC SSL W ORKING PAPER 05-014 MARCH 2005 However, as shown by the standard deviations (Table 4), there is substantial within class variation. Boxplots of the traffic counts associated with DRA subclass (Figure 3) show little distinction between minor and major collector and arterial roads. There is more distinction between minor and major highways, but small sample sizes (two in each category) preclude making a definitive statement regarding differences between these two categories. Again, standard deviations within each subclass are relatively high (Table 5), although less so for larger roads (highways and freeways). 140000 120000 100000 Actual Traffic Count 80000 60000 40000 146 61 157 150 69 20000 87 84 0 N= 114 Local 74 1 18 Highway (sec) Major 7 Expressway Highway (pri) Figure 1. Actual traffic counts associated with DMTI road class Table 3. Mean and standard deviation for actual traffic counts associated with DMTI road class DMTI Class Mean Standard Deviation Local 6,511 5,895 Major 15,207 10,831 Highway Secondary 18,254 One sample Highway Principal 21,025 9,129 113,789 22,685 Expressway ©SPATIAL SCIENCES LABORATORIES OCCASIONAL PAPERS SERIES 2005 4 UVIC SSL W ORKING PAPER 05-014 MARCH 2005 160000 140000 120000 100000 Actual Traffic Count 80000 60000 173 181 40000 99 98 91 20000 0 N= 53 86 Local 65 3 Arterial Collector 7 Freeway Highway Figure 2. Actual traffic counts associated with DRA road class Table 4. Mean and standard deviation for actual traffic counts associated with DRA road class DRA Class Mean Standard Deviation Local 3,976 2,779 Collector 8,953 6,812 Arterial 18,457 10,717 Highway 27,961 10,679 Freeway 113,789 22,685 ©SPATIAL SCIENCES LABORATORIES OCCASIONAL PAPERS SERIES 2005 5 UVIC SSL W ORKING PAPER 05-014 MARCH 2005 160000 140000 120000 Actual Traffic Count 100000 80000 60000 182 60 58 40000 20000 189 117 125 0 N= 48 40 47 15 53 2 2 7 a y j) w a ee (m Fr y a ) hw min ig ( H ay hw aj) ig m H l( ) ria in te Ar l (m ) aj ria m te Ar or ( ) ct in le ol r (m C o ct le ol C l ca Lo Figure 3. Actual traffic counts associated with DRA subclass Table 5. Mean and standard deviation for actual traffic counts associated with DRA road subclass DRA Subclass Mean Local 4,126 Collector minor 8,580 Collector major 9,694 Arterial minor 15,321 Arterial major 17,407 Highway minor 22,242 Highway major 36,684 Freeway Standard Deviation 113,789 2,879 8,522 6,015 10,850 10,900 5,640 3,841 22,684 Comparison of DRA road classes based on modelled traffic volumes. TransLink provided traffic volumes predicted by EMME/2, a widely-used traffic demand modelling software program. In total, traffic volumes for 10,313 road segments in the Greater Vancouver Regional District were available for analysis. The following analyses focus on DRA road class and subclass, given that they appear to better differentiate traffic volume among classes using actual traffic counts than the DMTI classes. Modelled traffic volumes for each DRA class are more poorly differentiated than actual traffic counts. Local and collector roads have similar means (4,378 and 5,377 respectively), while freeways show lower counts than highways (Table 6). Although DRA subclass shows a more reasonable separation of highways and freeways (means of 17,666 and 39,431 respectively), there ©SPATIAL SCIENCES LABORATORIES OCCASIONAL PAPERS SERIES 2005 6 UVIC SSL W ORKING PAPER 05-014 MARCH 2005 are apparent overlaps and inconsistencies for many other subclasses. For example, local and collector minor roads have similar means, collector major and arterial minor roads have similar means, and the mean of arterial major roads is substantially higher than that of highway minor roads. Boxplots of the modelled traffic volumes for both DRA class and subclass (Figures 4 and 5) reflect these similarities and overlaps, and show substantial numbers of extreme values and outliers, particularly for local, collector, and arterial roads. Also of interest are the much lower means for freeways based on modelled volumes in comparison to actual counts – 13,546 or 39,431 (class and subclass) versus 113,789. Standard deviations within classes are high, as was the case when actual traffic counts were evaluated. Table 6. Mean of modelled traffic counts for classes DRA Class Mean Standard Deviation DRA Subclass Mean Standard Deviation Local 4,378 5,105 Local 4,033 5,061 Collector 5,377 4,412 Collector minor 3,899 3,200 Collector major 6,223 4,775 Arterial minor 6,853 5,298 Arterial major 12,314 8,942 Highway minor 9,762 8,194 Highway major 17,666 12,134 Freeway 39,431 6,358 Arterial 10,943 Highway Freeway 8,463 15,478 12,225 13,546 10,612 70000 EMME/2 Predicted Traffic Count - GVRD 60000 10308 10305 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 10292 10282 10280 10277 10266 10229 10226 10227 10223 10209 10207 10195 10192 10188 10189 10131 10132 10121 10119 10115 10110 10105 10099 10100 10087 10075 10053 10041 10034 10019 10004 9984 9977 9975 9964 9952 9926 9909 9906 9843 9828 9824 9821 9796 9792 9791 9782 9762 9743 9740 9739 9718 9716 9697 9691 9686 9683 9654 9631 9630 9613 9593 9592 9591 9582 9581 9572 9560 9551 9497 9493 9482 9479 9466 9452 9448 9446 9414 9405 9403 9402 9390 9366 9365 9352 9337 9334 9316 9287 9271 9258 9259 9253 9232 9226 9215 9214 9213 9204 9202 9193 9183 9179 9175 9168 9166 9164 9150 9115 9111 9086 9062 9053 9045 9044 9043 9019 9016 8998 8993 8982 8972 8968 8943 8938 8897 8896 8890 8885 8878 8879 8877 8876 8872 8860 8843 8839 8840 8838 8835 8832 8801 8771 8769 8768 8754 8755 8753 8745 8740 8730 8720 8715 8703 8679 8671 8658 8659 8645 8637 8638 8632 8628 8618 8613 8609 8606 8604 8599 8600 8593 8587 8578 8565 10228 10208 10181 10138 10313 10312 10311 10310 10309 10307 10306 10302 10301 10300 10298 10299 10297 10296 10295 10291 10290 10284 10283 10281 10279 10278 10275 10270 10271 10272 10265 10267 10268 10263 10262 10264 10260 10261 10259 10258 10249 10247 10245 10246 10244 10239 10238 10237 10234 10235 10230 10222 10224 10225 10217 10218 10216 10214 10215 10210 10200 10199 10201 10203 10204 10205 10206 10196 10197 10198 10193 10191 10190 10183 10184 10185 10186 10178 10179 10180 10170 10171 10173 10172 10175 10176 10174 10177 10162 10163 10164 10165 10166 10167 10169 10168 10158 10159 10160 10161 10156 10157 10149 10150 10151 10140 10141 10143 10145 10144 10134 10135 10136 10137 10139 10133 10304 10303 10289 10288 10285 10286 10287 10293 10294 10276 10269 10257 10248 10213 10212 10063 9969 9915 9914 9872 9867 9855 9842 9831 9832 9819 9807 9793 9781 9764 9710 9709 9707 9705 9706 9698 9688 9687 9679 9680 9655 9650 9628 9627 9620 9610 9598 9594 9578 9577 9567 9566 9557 9555 9533 9531 9527 9526 9520 9513 9501 9502 9503 9504 9494 9487 9473 9464 9458 9449 9447 9445 9422 9421 9407 9404 9397 9396 9393 9388 9389 9384 9367 9370 9368 9369 9358 9357 9343 9339 9338 9332 9330 9324 9318 9315 9314 9311 9301 9284 9282 9281 9276 9266 9265 9255 9252 9245 9244 9246 9237 9236 9230 9227 9228 9223 9221 0 N= 3161 3346 3448 Local Collector Arterial 242 116 Highway Freeway Figure 4. GVRD EMME/2 traffic volumes by DRA classifications. ©SPATIAL SCIENCES LABORATORIES OCCASIONAL PAPERS SERIES 2005 7 EMME/2 Predicted Traffic Count - GVRD UVIC SSL W ORKING PAPER 05-014 MARCH 2005 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 10308 10305 10292 10282 10280 10293 10266 10229 10226 10227 10223 10207 10195 10192 10189 10188 10131 10132 10105 10099 10100 10087 10075 10034 10041 10019 10004 9984 9975 9964 9952 9909 9906 9843 9828 9824 9796 9792 9791 9782 9740 9739 9716 9697 9691 9686 9613 9593 9592 9591 9582 9581 9572 9560 9497 9493 9479 9466 9452 9446 9414 9405 9402 9403 9352 9287 9271 9226 9214 9213 9193 9183 9179 9175 9164 9062 9043 9019 9016 8993 8972 8968 8938 8897 8896 8890 8885 8879 8877 8878 8872 8843 8839 8840 8838 8835 8801 8771 8769 8754 8755 8745 8720 8715 8703 8679 8671 8658 8645 8638 8637 8632 8628 8618 8613 8606 8604 8505 8487 8474 8445 8444 8438 8437 8427 8422 8421 8415 8412 8377 8371 8348 8343 8342 8336 8327 8293 8285 8284 8283 8280 8279 8246 8241 8242 8226 8225 8224 8212 8197 8186 10017 9718 9615 9566 9369 9367 9370 9365 9368 9366 9338 9337 9276 9123 9074 9012 8746 8721 8700 8701 8683 8684 8614 8577 8576 8535 8536 8530 8531 8506 8441 8436 10228 10146 10148 10063 9954 9915 9914 9872 9867 9855 9832 9831 9807 9793 9781 9764 9710 9709 9707 9705 9706 9698 9688 9679 9680 9655 9650 9631 9628 9627 9610 9598 9594 9578 9577 9567 9557 9555 9551 9533 9531 9527 9526 9520 9513 9502 9501 9503 9504 9494 9487 10159 10115 10053 10054 9977 9951 9946 9917 9908 9870 9853 9842 9809 9810 9808 9801 9800 9795 9794 9787 9779 9778 9768 9763 9762 9760 9761 9753 9752 9751 9743 9736 9720 9719 9713 9683 9675 9671 9665 9663 9664 9654 10313 10312 10311 10310 10309 10307 10306 10302 10301 10300 10299 10298 10297 10296 10295 10291 10290 10284 10283 10281 10279 10277 10278 10275 10270 10271 10272 10265 10267 10268 10264 10261 10263 10262 10259 10260 10258 10248 10249 10247 10245 10246 10244 10243 10239 10238 10237 10234 10235 10230 10222 10224 10225 10217 10218 10215 10214 10216 10212 10304 10303 10285 10287 10286 10289 10288 10211 10202 0 N= 2421 1575 2249 1134 2692 44 192 6 ay ) w aj ee m ( Fr ay ) in hw ig (m H ay hw aj) ig H m l( ria ) te in Ar m l( ) ria aj te m Ar or ( ) ct in le ol (m C or ct le ol C l ca Lo Figure 5. GVRD EMME/2 traffic volumes by DRA sub-classifications. Assuming that the sample of actual traffic counts is representative of true traffic volume, it is possible to conclude that modelled traffic volume does not adequately predict differences in volume between local and collector roads, or among arterial roads, highways, and freeways (Table 7). Using modelled traffic volumes to indicate the level of exposure to traffic related air pollution therefore could create substantial exposure misclassification. Another possibility is that the sample of actual traffic counts is biased and coincidentally favours the DRA road class system. Table 7. A comparison of actual traffic counts and modelled traffic volume for DRA road classes DRA Class Actual Count mean Modelled Count mean Local 3,976 4,378 Collector 8,953 5,377 Arterial 18,457 10,943 Highway 27,961 15,478 Freeway 113,789 13,546 Spatial Exploration of Variation in Traffic Counts by DRA Road Class. The variability of traffic counts within each road class may be due to systematic traffic volume variation depending on location within the study region. For example, it might be that a ‘local’ road in a high population urban area always has higher traffic volumes than a ‘local’ road in a lower population rural area. ©SPATIAL SCIENCES LABORATORIES OCCASIONAL PAPERS SERIES 2005 8 UVIC SSL W ORKING PAPER 05-014 MARCH 2005 We chose three regions within the study area, based on population, population density1 and available sample size for actual traffic counts (Table 8) and focused on local, collector, and arterial road classes since these classes showed high internal variability. Table 8. Characteristics of Compared Regions Region Population Vancouver Richmond Abbotsford 583,296 172,714 126,634 Area (hectares) 11,467 12,869 35,918 Population Density (persons/hectare) 51 14 4 Source: BC Stats Community Fact Sheets http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/dd/facsheet/facsheet.htm If there was systematic variation in traffic volumes based on regional differences in population, we would expect to see high traffic volumes in high population areas, moderate traffic volumes in moderately populated areas, and low traffic volumes in low population areas. Conversely, it might be expected that increasing density decreases the need to use a vehicle, and therefore traffic volume might decrease as population density increases. In fact, box plots of the mean traffic count for local, collector, and arterial roads (Figures 6, 7 and 8) in Abbotsford, Richmond, and Vancouver, suggest there is no systematic regional pattern. For local roads, Figure 6 shows similar mean traffic counts in Richmond and Abbotsford, areas with similar populations but different population densities, indicating no difference based on population density. The lower mean traffic count in Vancouver, however, indicates there might be a difference based on population density, assuming higher density causes lower traffic volumes. For both collector and arterial roads, Figures 8 and 9 show similar means for low density and high density areas (and therefore no difference based on total populations), but a lower mean for the moderate density area (and therefore no difference based on total population or on density). Based on this limited analyses, there is no evidence of a systematic spatial pattern in traffic counts that would explain variability within each road class. 1 We note that in both Richmond and Abbotsford, substantial agricultural lands are included in the total area, therefore population density may be substantially higher in some parts of each area. For example, if we assume that 50 percent of Richmond is agricultural, population density could be 28 persons/hectare in residential areas. Available traffic counts are, however, generally located in the most densely populated areas of each region, and so it is likely reasonable to make direct comparisons among these regions. ©SPATIAL SCIENCES LABORATORIES OCCASIONAL PAPERS SERIES 2005 9 UVIC SSL W ORKING PAPER 05-014 MARCH 2005 10000 Actual Traffic Count - Local Road 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 N= 16 16 6 Abbotsford Richmond Vancouver Figure 6. Actual traffic volumes on local roads in Abbotsford, Richmond, and Vancouver 40000 18 17 Actual Traffic Count - Collector 30000 10 20000 8 10000 0 N= 17 11 26 Abbotsford Richmond Vancouver Figure 7. Actual traffic volumes on collector roads in Abbotsford, Richmond, and Vancouver 70000 60000 Actual Traffic Count - Arterial 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 N= 6 23 16 Abbotsford Richmond Vancouver Figure 8. Actual traffic volumes on arterial roads in Abbotsford, Richmond, and Vancouver ©SPATIAL SCIENCES LABORATORIES OCCASIONAL PAPERS SERIES 2005 10 UVIC SSL W ORKING PAPER 05-014 MARCH 2005 Conclusion Traffic volume on nearby roads has been used to indicate exposure to traffic-related air pollution. When few or no actual counts are available for a study area, road class may be used as a surrogate for traffic volume, assuming that higher capacity roads carry more traffic on average than do lower capacity roads. Modelled traffic volumes also may be used when actual counts are not available. Analyses of road classification systems used for existing digital road data in British Columbia, and of modelled traffic volumes in the Lower Mainland suggest that, for the purposes of assigning levels of exposure to traffic-related air pollution, the road classes used in the provincial Digital Road Atlas provide a somewhat better differentiation in traffic volumes, than road subclasses. Road classes used in DMTI digital road data did not sufficiently differentiate traffic volume among classes. Modelled traffic volumes did not compare well to actual traffic counts and when associated with road classes from the DRA digital roads, were not well differentiated among classes. For the purposes of assigning exposure levels then, we conclude that at this point in time, based on the sample of actual counts, using the DRA digital road class provides the best chance for minimizing exposure misclassification, although more analysis of within class variation is required. We found no apparent spatial pattern that would explain the within-class variation and betweenclass overlap in traffic volumes, although our analysis was limited by the small sample size for actual traffic counts for each region compared, and to the examination of the effects of total population and population density on traffic volume. Undoubtedly, there are more factors, both spatial and aspatial that may contribute to variation in traffic volume. Future research in this area should attempt to identify additional factors that influence traffic volume, and use a larger sample of actual traffic counts, optimized for each region included. If successful, these efforts could produce a model suitable for predicting traffic volumes in regions outside of the Lowe Mainland, based on the DRA digital road classes. ©SPATIAL SCIENCES LABORATORIES OCCASIONAL PAPERS SERIES 2005 11
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