Nonunion Wage Rates and the Threat of Unionization
by
Henry S. Farber, Princeton University
CEPS Working Paper No. 90
April 2003
This is a much revised version of the paper I prepared for a Festschrift in honor of Orley
Ashenfelter, held in Princeton NJ on October 11-12, 2002. I thank Michael Burawoy, David Card,
Barry Hirsch, John Pencavel, Cecilia Rouse, Bruce Western, and participants in workshops at
Harvard University and Hunter College for helpful comments and discussion. This paper was
written while I was a Visiting Scholar at the Russell Sage Foundation.
Nonunion Wage Rates and the Threat of Unionization
Henry S. Farber
CEPS Working Paper No. 90
April 2003
ABSTRACT
I investigate how the threat of union organization affects the wage paid to nonunion
workers. I start by outlining the standard model of wage determination by a nonunion
employer when faced with the threat of union organization. The model suggests that the
nonunion wage will be directly related and the union wage gap will be inversely related to
the threat. I use repeated cross-section data from the CPS from 1977-2002 to develop a
measure of the threat as the predicted probability of union membership. I use this measure
to estimate earnings functions that use several sources of variation in the likelihood of
union membership to identify the threat effect in a manner that reduces the likelihood of
omitted variable bias. Finally, I investigate two cases where there has arguably been a
change in the likelihood of union organization that is not correlated with changes in the
demand for labor. These include the wage changes surrounding the introduction of rightto-work (RTW) laws in two states during the period studied and wage changes surrounding
deregulation of key industries in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The results are mixed. The
preferred estimates from the analysis using predicted probability of unionization as the
threat measure, imply very little relationship between either nonunion wages or the union
wage gap and the threat. The estimates that rely on the introduction of RTW laws show a
significant relationship between nonunion wages and the introduction of RTW laws in one
of the two states. Stronger evidence of threat effects is found in the experience of
deregulated industries, where regulation was a central factor in union strength.
Henry Farber
Industrial Relations Section
Firestone Library
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ 08544-2098
[email protected]
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union
nonunion
.8
.8
.7
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.3
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0
0
−.1
−.1
−.2
−.2
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union
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1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
year
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nonunion
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
year
(B) Within− and Between−Industry and Within−State Variation
union
nonunion
.8
.8
.7
.7
.6
.6
.5
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.3
.3
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0
0
−.1
−.1
−.2
−.2
−.3
union
−.3
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
year
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
year
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union
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union
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1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
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