Frandsen Publishing Presents
Favorite ALL-WaysTM Newsletter Articles
“Handicapping Honest Pace Races”
The Opposing Pace Gap Method
Introduction
The pace match-up scenario of all races can be categorized as either “FAST EARLY”,
“LONE EARLY”, “HONEST” or “SLOW”. These are called Race Pace Shapes in ALL-Ways
Software. The pace match-up scenario in HONEST Pace races, by definition, will not
cause either a fast pace or a slow pace to the 2nd Call. Early (“E”) and Early Presser (“EP”)
horses generally have an edge in HONEST Pace races, particularly in sprints. But, many
high odds top 4 finishers are late running Presser (“P”) and Sustainer (“S”) horses.
HONEST Pace races are also generally influenced the most by the prevailing track bias
compared to other Race Pace Shapes. HONEST Pace races are the toughest races to
handicap, at least to do so profitably and a substantial majority of all races are HONEST
Pace races. On the other hand, a key to consistent and long term profitable play is to
learn how to handicap and play, or pass, HONEST Pace races. This article discusses a
solid way to approach this that we call “The Opposing Pace Gap Method”. Caution: As
you read this article, you may initially think “This is too simplistic.” But, after you look
at the examples, you will likely think “This is powerful.” The key benefit is the process
itself and how it helps organize your handicapping.
All past ALL-Ways Newsletters, as well as a Major Topic Index, are posted on both the
BRIS and Frandsen Publishing Web sites and they are always free. Also, articles already
published as part of the Favorite ALL-Ways Newsletter Article series are posted in the
Newsletter Section on the Frandsen Publishing Web site and they are free as well. See
the links at the end of this article.
Race Pace Shapes
For a detailed discussion of Race Pace Shapes, we refer you to the ALL-Ways Favorite
Article titled “Race Pace Shapes”.
Several years ago, Frandsen Publishing first
introduced the concept of categorizing races to be run into four different Race Pace
Shapes. Three of these Pace Shapes, namely FAST EARLY, LONE EARLY and SLOW, lend
themselves very nicely to pace oriented handicapping decisions.

Good closers often win FAST EARLY races.

A LONE EARLY horse often runs away from the field.

Late runners with the best early pace ratings often unexpectedly find themselves
on or near the early lead and go on to win SLOW races.
This brings us to the fourth Race Pace Shape, namely HONEST races. These races are
designated by ALL-Ways software as “E-EP” or “EP-EP” races. “E-EP” races have one
horse with an “E” running style and one or more horses with an “EP” running style.
“EP-EP” races have no “E” runners and two or more horses with an “EP” running style.
These are called HONEST Pace races because the pace match-up will not cause either a
fast or slow pace to the second call.
Here are some important points to keep in mind about HONEST Pace races:

The majority of races have a HONEST Race Pace Shape.

“E” and “EP” runners generally have a slight edge, particularly in sprints.

HONEST Pace Shape races can be significantly influenced by a strong track bias,
more so than the other Race Pace Shapes.

HONEST Pace Shape races are the toughest races to handicap .... at least to
handicap profitably. A significant percentage of HONEST Pace races should not
be bet. They should be passed.
WOW! HONEST Pace races make up the majority of races, they are difficult to handicap
and a substantial percentage of them should be passed. So why bother? Well, FAST
EARLY, LONE EARLY and SLOW Pace races will present you with some very nice high
paying horses. But, in our opinion, a key to consistent and long term profitable play is
to learn how to handicap and play, or pass, HONEST Pace races. We are going to show
you our favorite way of handicapping these races. We call it The Opposing Pace Gap
Method.
The Opposing Pace Gap Method for playing HONEST Pace races
HONEST pace races are very prone to having a combination of the best early running
horses and the best late running horses dueling it out down the stretch run for the top
finish positions, more so than the other Race Pace Shapes. This Opposing Pace Gap
Method takes advantage of this characteristic. The method is simple and very fast to
use. If it seems a little too simplistic as we explain the method, stick with it. It really is
very effective.
Start by drawing two small columns on your handicapping reports/notes. One column
is for early running horses (“E” and “EP” horses) and the other column is for late
running horses (“P” and “S” horses).
Some Clarification
For this Opposing Pace Gap Method, when we refer to “gap”, we are referring to a
significant difference between two horses based on your overall, comprehensive
handicapping evaluation of the horses.
It is not necessarily based on just a single
handicapping factor rating for the horses. The “gap” is based on your judgment. This
will become clear as you review the examples that are coming up.
Let’s first work on the early running horses. Write down the name of the best early
running horse (say Horse “A”). It will generally be the early running horse rated the
highest by ALL-Ways software. Next write down the name of the next best early
running horse (say Horse “B”). If these first two horses are very close in ability and you
have a hard time choosing one or the other as your top pick, then write Horse B’s name
directly under Horse A and go on and look for the third best early running horse (say
Horse “C”). However, if Horse A is clearly superior to Horse B or is clearly better suited
to the match-up of today’s race, then leave a blank line under Horse A before writing
Horse B’s name down. This blank line is the “gap”. The key here is to keep writing
down the early running horses directly under each other until you identify a gap before
the next horse. Then, if there are any early horses remaining, you write down the next
horse after the Gap and move on to late running horses.
Now, just repeat the process for late running horses. Keep writing down late running
horses until you identify the gap before the next horse. Then write down the next
horse after the Gap.
There will be times when the early running horses are just plain not going to figure in
the race at all. In this case, put the Gap at the top of the list and put the best early
horse after the Gap. The same situation can also apply to the late running horses.
However, it will not happen to both early and late running horses in the same race.
Of course, ALL-Ways software will make this process pretty easy because it helps
identify the best horses and it will show you each horse’s running style.
Examples of the Opposing Pace Gap Method
Now, we are going to look at some examples. Before we do, however, it is important to
understand the concept behind this approach. First and foremost, this is not intended
to be a mechanical system of play. Instead, it is intended to be a method of organizing
your thoughts when confronted with the often tough task of handicapping HONEST
Pace races. The concept is simple. The race is going to be won by either the best early
running horse or the best late running horse. And, very often the place horse will have
a running style just the opposite of the running style of the winning horse.
Again, remember that this is not a mechanical system. So, how you actually play each
of these scenarios will depend on the specific circumstances and match-ups in the
race. And, you would, of course, only make specific wagers if the probable payoffs
indicate a value play.
Example A:
Early Runners
Late Runners
Horse A
Horse F
gap
gap
Horse B
Horse G
This is a one or two horse race. If “A” is clearly superior to “F” in this race, then you
may want to bet “A” to win, an A/F straight Exacta and/or an A/F/BG Trifecta (a $4 bet
for a $2 Trifecta). If the “F” horse is the superior horse, just reverse “A” and “F”. If “A”
and “F” are close, then you may want to bet both A and F to win, an AF/AF Exacta box
and/or an AF/AF/BG Trifecta ($8).
(Continued)
Example B:
Early Runners
Late Runners
Horse A
Horse F
gap
Horse G
Horse B
gap
Horse H
This is the most common chart you will see, so we will spend a little more time on it. It
shows a one, two or three horse race. These three different scenarios will be handled
quite differently.

First, if “A” is clearly superior in this race, you may want to bet “A” to win, an
A/FG Exacta and/or an A/FG/BFGH Trifecta ($12).

Second, if the “F” and “G” horses are superior to the “A” horse, then you may
want to bet both “F” and “G” to win, a FG/AFG Exacta and/or a FG/AFG/ABFGH
Trifecta ($24).

The third scenario is if horses “A”, “F” and “G” are all about equal. In this case,
looking for value plays is crucial. Most likely, one of the horses will be an
underlay and the other two will be overlays. You may want to bet both overlay
horses to win. In most cases it is best to avoid the temptation to play a three
horse Exacta box. Instead, bet the individual Exacta combinations that are value
plays. We would be inclined to not bet the Trifecta unless the crowd’s favorite
figured to finish off-the-board or one of these horses was a long shot and we
were very confident it would finish in-the-money. In this case, we would look to
key either horse “A”, “F” or “G” in the win and place positions. The Trifecta wager
might look something like this: A/FG/BFGH and FG/A/BFGH ($24). See the ALL-
Ways Favorite Article titled “The Very Best Way We Know to Play the Trifecta” for
suggestions on how to bet the Trifecta.
(Continued)
Example C:
Early Runners
Late Runners
Horse A
gap
Horse B
Horse F
gap
Horse C
This is another two horse race. But, in this case, the two primary win candidates are
both early running horses (“E” and/or “EP”). If the off-odds are satisfactory, you may
want to bet both “A” and “B” to win, an AB/AB Exacta box and/or an AB/AB/CF Trifecta
($8). One point of caution: If both the early running horses are “E” horses, there is a
strong possibility that only one of the “E” horses will finish well and the other will be
off-the-board.
Example D:
Early Runners
Late Runners
Horse A
Horse F
Horse B
Horse G
gap
gap
Horse C
Horse H
This is a two or four horse race. If “A” and “B” are clearly superior in this race to “F” and
“G”, then you might bet “A” and “B” to win and an AB/ABFG Exacta. We would not play
the Trifecta unless the crowd favorite figures to finish off-the-board or we are very
confident a long shot will finish in-the-money. If all four of the top horses (A, B, F and
G) are relatively equal in this race, we would pass the race. If we cannot narrow the
probable winner down to three horses or less, we generally will not play the race.
(Continued)
Example E:
Early Runners
Late Runners
Horse A
Horse F
gap
Horse G
Horse B
Horse H
Horse I
Horse J
This is an interesting one. This indicates there is no meaningful gap between the late
running horses. If “A” is the superior horse in this race, we would bet “A” to win and we
would play selected combinations of A/FGHIJ Exacta tickets. We would play those with
probable payoffs indicating good value. We would not play them all. We would most
likely pass the Trifecta unless the crowd favorite figures to finish off-the-board. If “A”
is not superior in this race to the late runners, we would most likely pass the race.
Example F:
Early Runners
Late Runners
Horse A
Horse F
Horse B
Horse G
Horse C
Horse H
Horse D
Horse I
gap
gap
This one is easy. There are six horses we are having a hard time separating. This might
be a good opportunity for a 10 cent Superfecta. But, more often than not, we would sit
this one out.
Summary
Hopefully, this Opposing Pace Gap method will help you sort through HONEST Pace
races. It will help determine which wagers to make and how best to structure them.
And, it will help make it clear when you should pass an HONEST Pace race. Winning
horseplayers do not play every race. Knowing when to pass a race is as important to
profitable play as is picking winners.
© Copyright 2010
Frandsen Publishing Corporation
All Rights Reserved
Email: [email protected]
Web Site: www.frandsen.com
Phone: 952.937.9180
Frandsen Publishing Corporation is the publisher of the quarterly ALL-Ways Newsletters, which
are widely considered to be one of the best sources of handicapping and wagering insights
available in the industry. And, ALL-Ways Newsletters are FREE! These newsletters are posted
on both the BRIS and Frandsen Publishing Web sites. All articles that are part of the Favorite
ALL-Ways Article series are available on the Frandsen Publishing Web site.
All Newsletters and Major Topic Index
Frandsen Publishing is also the developer of ALL-Ways Handicapping Software. ALL-Ways is
serious software for professional and serious horseplayers. Phillips Racing Newsletter calls
ALL-Ways Software “absolutely the best free handicapping tool on the market” and gives ALLWays a 9 ½ rating … the highest ever awarded. And, ALL-Ways Software is FREE!
More about ALL-Ways Software
Bloodstock Research Information Services and Frandsen Publishing Corporation are pleased to
provide ALL-Ways Software, ALL-Ways Newsletters and the “Favorite ALL-Ways Newsletter
Articles” series, all for FREE.