Seasonal weather forecast for the months of February, March and April Under the present link, of the official website of Cyprus Meteorological Service, will be posted on a regular basis, the graphic output of the seasonal weather forecasting for the next 3 months, as well as analyses corresponding to comparisons relating to the values of the observed values and the normal ones. Analyses of the seasonal forecast will also be posted under the present link regarding the validation of the meteorological situation of the month on which the forecast of the next three months is based on. At the present, the seasonal weather forecast, for the months of January, February and March 2013 and related analyses are presented. Evaluates of the seasonal forecast for December 2012 are also presented. The seasonal forecast model is in use since 2009, and issues every month seasonal forecasts for the next 7 months (graphics and analyses of the 3 next months will only be presented) especially for the area of South‐Eastern Europe. The hosting organization is the Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia which is under the umbrella of the World Meteorological Organization. The model from which the specific seasonal forecast is produced is dynamic and has many similarities with the short range weather forecasting models. So the model in use results in uncertainty (as any other weather forecasting product) and for the previous reason it is possible to diverge from the real weather observed. The fields of differences (anomalies) of temperature and rainfall (rainfall and temperature parameters are key prognostic parameters in the final level of short‐term forecasting and of course for seasonal and climate forecasts), from the normal values were selected for presentation and commentary of the seasonal products. The areas of the meteorological stations, Athalassa for inland, Polis for the northern coast, Paphos int. airport on the western coast, Larnaka int. airport on the southern coast, Frenaros for the eastern coast and Prodromos Forest College for the higher mountainous areas were selected as reference areas. The period for which normal values are exported is the climatic period 1961‐1990, although the trend is for the selection of more resent climatic periods, and that for a more direct comparison. In general: The weather expected for February, March and April From what it will be analyzed below in general the weather for the following three months will be rather warm and relatively dry. Temperature over the coastal areas will be higher by 1 to 2 degrees C while inland will be on average normal, and this will be, among other, an effect from the rather warmer than normal East Mediterranean sea. As it concerns the accumulated precipitation height that it is not expected to exceed 75% if compared to normal resulting in a relatively dry period. It must be mentioned that with February ends the winter rainy period of the area with the high normal accumulated precipitation and the area enters in a period with significantly lower normal accumulated precipitation. February February, according to the seasonal forecast seems to be relatively warmer than normal, since the model gives a positive deviation of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. The balance of the rain is expected to be negative at approximately the same percentage as the previous January, that it is expected to range from 50 to 75% of normal. Divergence of the mean monthly temperature (oC) from normal during February Percentage of the mean monthly precipitation (%) compared with the normal of February March Temperature in March is expected to be slightly above normal, mainly over the coastal areas, whiule inland it will be arount normal. Its also expected to be relatively dry, since the amount of rain ranges to the south and east to less than 50% of the normal, while over the west from 50 up to 75% of normal. o
Divergence of the mean monthly temperature ( C) from normal during March Percentage of the mean monthly precipitation (%) compared with the normal of March April Durig April the temperature is expected to range whithin normal limits, but it will be dry, since in most of the areas it will be less than 50% of the normal while only over the northwestern areas is expected to range to less than 75% of normal. o
Divergence of the mean monthly temperature ( C) from normal during April Percentage of the mean monthly precipitation (%) compared with the normal of April Normal values of temperature and rainfall Inland Normal maximum temperature inland, for February is 16 degrees, while for March it climbs to about 19 degrees Celsius and for April to 24. The minimum temperature is respectively 5.4, 7 and 10.4 degrees Celsius. The normal rainfall is 47, 37 and 22mm respectively. South coast Normal maximum temperature over the southern coast for February is about 18, 20 for March and 23 degrees Celsius for April, while the minimum is 8, 9 and 12 degrees Celsius respectively. The normal rainfall is 58, 39 and 18mm respectively. East Coast To the East Coast the temperature for February is 16 degrees Celsius, for March 19 degrees and for April 22 respectively, while the minimum is 8, 9 and 12 degrees Celsius respectively. The normal rainfall is 58, 33 and 13mm respectively. West Coast Over the West Coast for February the normal temperature is 17, for March 19 degrees Celsius, and for April 22 degrees, while the minimum is 8, 9 and 12 degrees Celsius respectively. The normal rainfall is 69, 49 and 24mm respectively. North Coast Over the North coast during February the temperature is 17 degrees, during March 19 degrees Celsius and in April 22 degrees, while the minimum is 8, 9 and 12 degrees Celsius respectively. The normal rainfall is 70, 61 and 27mm respectively. Mountainous areas For the mountainous areas the normal temperature is for February 7, for March 10 degrees Celsius and for April it climbs to 15 degrees, while the minimum is 1, 3 and 7 degrees Celsius respectively. The normal rainfall is 145, 120 and it drops to 54mm respectively. Validation of Januarys seasonal forecast The temperature seasonal weather forecast for the just past January 2013 looks like almost normal with a positive balance of rainfall in the West while inland and the rest of the area would have negative balance, since rainfall ranges from 75 to 100% normal for December. o
Divergence of the mean monthly temperature ( C) from normal during January Percentage of the mean monthly precipitation (%) compared with the normal of January From the relevant information, kept by Cyprus Meteorological Service, seems that the temperature for January was in general normal or slightly higher than normal, except the period from 7 to 13 where the temperature was significantly lower than normal. The average rainfall was recorded with an overall negative balance since only 58% of normal was accumulated. Normal Temperature and Normal Precipitation Height for January 2013 Station Normal Temp (°C) Normal Precipitation Height (1961‐90) (mm) POLIS 18.0 PAFOS (A/P) 18.4 PRODROMOS 7.7 ATHALASSA 17.1 LARNAKA (A/P) 18.2 FRENAROS 17.9 The seasonal forecast was prepared by: Kleanthis Nicolaides Senior Meteorological Officer 97.4 94.0 192.9 48.0 68.0 60.9