members $5 / non members $25 SAVANNAH 2014 ECONOMIC TRENDS Contents ABOUT THE THE DATA DATA (See (See Note Note Below) Below) ABOUT Welcome to to Savannah Savannah Welcome Savannah Quick Facts Savannah Quick Facts Featured Speakers Speakers Featured 2012 Forecasts: Forecasts: 2012 United States States and and Georgia Georgia United Terry College of Business, Business, University University of of Georgia Georgia Terry College of Savannah MSA Savannah MSA Center for for Regional Regional Analysis, Analysis, Department Department of of Economics, Economics, Armstrong Armstrong Atlantic Atlantic State State University University Center Economic Trends: Trends: Savannah Savannah Economic Compiled by the Center for for Regional Regional Analysis Analysis at at Armstrong Armstrong Atlantic Atlantic State State University University Compiled by the Center Economy Economy Gross Regional Regional Product Product Gross Demographics Demographics Employment Employment Population Population Household Income Income Household Industry Industry Construction Construction Health Care Care Health Major Employers and Major Major Manufacturers Manufacturers Major Employers and Military Military Real Estate Estate Real Tourism Tourism Infrastructure Infrastructure Education Education Port of of Savannah: Savannah: Georgia Georgia Ports Ports Authority Authority Port Small Business Investment and Development Small Business Investment and Development Taxes Taxes Transportation: Roads, Roads, Rail, Rail, Water, Water, Air Air Transportation: Utilities Utilities Other Other Workforce Development Development Workforce 4 5 7 24 29 30 31 32 34 36 37 37 38 39 41 42 44 45 45 47 48 49 51 53 54 NOTE: ABOUT ABOUT THE THE DATA DATA NOTE: This report report was was updated updated by by the the Center Center for for Regional Regional Analysis Analysis at at Armstrong Armstrong Atlantic Atlantic State State University. University. The The Center Center This (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Areas of of concentrated concentrated research research include include regional regional economic economic forecasting, forecasting, economic economic impact impact analysis, analysis, economic economic development development and and business business Areas expansion, tourism tourism development, development, survey-based survey-based research, research, and and specialty specialty reports reports on on topics topics of of state, state, regional regional and and local local interest. interest. The The Center's Center's expansion, activities are are intended intended to to appeal appeal to to aa broad broad range range of of constituencies, constituencies, and and the the Center Center stands stands ready ready to to enter enter into into cooperative cooperative partnerships partnerships with with activities public, private, and community organizations. public, private, and community organizations. Data for for this this report report are are collected collected from from public public sources sources and and generally generally lag lag anywhere anywhere from from one one to to two two years years behind behind the the date date the the report report isis Data produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis and the the Savannah Savannah Chamber Chamber have have made made every every attempt attempt to to provide provide the the most most reliable reliable information information available, available, they they cannot cannot be be held held liable liable for for and omissions or inaccuracies. omissions or inaccuracies. This report report isis published published by by the the Savannah Savannah Area Area Chamber Chamber of of Commerce, Commerce, 101 101 East East Bay Bay Street Street (31401), (31401), P.O. P.O. Box Box 1628, 1628, Savannah, Savannah, Georgia Georgia This 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the the 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources resources and and contact contact information information are are available available on on the the Chamber’s Chamber’s Web Web site: site: www.savannahchamber.com. www.savannahchamber.com. Additional Savannah Area Area Chamber Chamber of of Commerce Commerce Savannah 2014 Economic Trends 2014 Economic Trends 11 3 Contents Welcome to Savannah ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) While many major cities struggle through economic discomfort, the metropolitan Savannah area is somewhat protected by its Welcome to Savannah diverse mix of industry Savannah Quick Facts and services, a history of stable residential growth and a moderate tax structure that have combined to help the regional economy maintain a healthy balance and quality of life that continues to rate among the nation’s best. Featured Speakers 2012 known Forecasts: Long as one of the nation’s most popular tourist destinations, Savannah also continues to garner recognition and United States and Georgia accolades for its broader list of business and cultural advantages. In 2013, Savannah was selected for a number of best cities Terry College Business, Georgia–Condé Nast Traveler, October 2013, “Pinnacle Award of Excellence” – lists, including: “Topof10 cities inUniversity the UnitedofStates" Savannah MSA Successful Meetings, June 2013, “Gold Service Award” –Meetings & Conventions Magazine, September 2013, "America’s Best Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Cities” –Travel + Leisure, July 2013, “Reader’s Choice Award” –ConventionSouth Magazine, October 2013, “2013 Award of Excellence” –Corporate & Incentive Travel Magazine, May 2013, and one of the "Top 25 Destinations in the World" – Trip Economic Trends: Savannah Advisor, May 2013. Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Economy In 2013 Savannah received recognition as being one of the "Top Ten Romantic Cities" – Livability.com, February 2013, Gross Regionalalso Product "Best City for Affordable Getaway" –Travel + Leisure, May 2013, "Best Romantic City" –AAA Southern Traveler, August 2013, Demographics "America’s #1 Most Charming Accent" – Travel + Leisure, April 2013, "Top 50 Destination for Labor Day" - TravelersToday.com, Employment AugustPopulation 2013, "Tybee Island: Top Family Friendly Beach Town" –TravelNerd.com, June 2013, and awarded the "America’s Top Household –USA IncomeToday, May 2013. 10 Waterfronts" Industry Construction Savannah is a cosmopolitan community with a European flair and “good bones” as exhibited by its strong business community Health Care and advanced infrastructure. While residents and visitors enjoy its rich historical tradition, Savannah continues to improve its Majorenvironment, Employers and Major Manufacturers business infusing the area with advantages that benefit its major industries: manufacturing, distribution, tourism, Military military, port operations, health care, and its growing presence of innovative technology firms and entrepreneurs. The Savannah Estate regionReal continues to be an ideal choice for any relocating business, individual or family. Tourism Infrastructure We invite you to bring your businesses and families to Savannah. Be a part of this vital and thriving community, one that is ready Education to helpPort youofand your company, become exciting new members of our beautiful city. For more information contact: Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Small Business Investment and Development Savannah TaxesArea Chamber of Commerce Visit Savannah Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air 101 E.Utilities Bay Street (31401) P.O. Box 1628 Other Workforce Development Savannah, GA 31402-1628 912.644.6400 Fax: 912.644.6497 NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA www.SavannahChamber.com www.VisitSavannah.com This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) the you applied research of Savannah's business and community organizations. The following organizations are also availablemeets to assist in your move needs to Savannah. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, development, survey-based research, specialty reports regional and localEconomic interest. The Center's Savannah tourism Economic Development Savannahand Development and on topics of state,City of Savannah activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative Authority (SEDA) Renewal Authority (SDRA) Development Office partnerships with public, private, and community organizations. P.O. Box 128 P.O. Box 24308 P.O. Box 1027 Savannah, GA 31402-0128 Savannah, GA 31401-1225 Savannah, GA 31402 Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is 912.447.8450 Fax: 912.447.8455 912.651.6973 Fax: 912.651.6707 912.651.3653 Fax:at912.651.7616 produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end 2011 or earlier. This www.seda.org www.sdra.net www.savannahga.gov data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for omissions or inaccuracies. This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 4 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce Savannah AreaTrends Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic 2014 Economic Trends 2 1 Contents Savannah Quick Facts ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Tourism Welcome to Savannah Annual Quick Visitors: more than 12 million (2012) Savannah Facts Nation’s largest Landmark Historic Landmark District Featured Speakers Manufacturing 2012 Forecasts: 245 manufacturing plants provide 15,248 jobs (2012) United States and Georgia Recreation Tybee Island Beaches & Pavilion Boating, Marinas, Boat Ramps, Rowing Fishing & Hunting Camping, Wildlife Parks Nightlife, Live Music Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Top 5 Manufacturing Employers (2013) Savannah Civic Center, Entertainment Savannah MSA Gulfstream Aerospace Corp. 5,000 9,999 & Private Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, ArmstrongPublic Atlantic State Available: UniversityGolf Courses, Swimming & Tennis Georgia-Pacific 1,000 - 4,999 International PaperSavannah 500 - 999 Banks Economic Trends: Savannah Morning News 500 999 184 Banks (www.yellowpages.com) Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic StateAbout University Chemtall Inc. 500 999 About 40 Credit Unions (www.yellowpages.com) Economy Gross Regional Product Taxable Retail Sales (Estimated), Chatham County Schools & Churches Demographics 2012 $6.3 billion 2010 $5.7 billion Public: 27 elementary schools, 7 K-8 schools, Employment 2011 $6.0 billion 2009 $5.8 billion 9 middle schools, 11 high schools Population 41 Large Shopping Centers, 2 Regional Malls Private: 18 elementary schools, 33 high schools Household Income Source: GA Dept of Revenue Statistical Report FY09-12 18 universities, Colleges and technical colleges with estimated Industry annual enrollment of nearly 60,000+ (SEDA) Construction Utilities About 660 churches (www.yellowpages.com) HealthPower Care – Coastal Georgia, Atlanta Gas Light Company Georgia Employers and Major Manufacturers andMajor a choice of gas marketers, City of Savannah Water and Healthcare (Chatham County) Military Sewer Bureau 3 acute care hospitals 1,100+ beds, 800+ doctors Real Estate 13 nursing homes Tourism Culture Infrastructure African-American Cultural Center Media ArtEducation Galleries, Theaters and Museums Print Media Frequency of Savannah: CityPort Market Art CenterGeorgia Ports Authority Savannah Morning News Daily Small Historical Business Society Investment and Development Georgia Statesboro Herald 6 days a week TaxesForts Jackson, McAllister, Pulaski, and Screven Historic Effingham Now Bi-Weekly Transportation: Rail, Water, Air Historic Homes andRoads, Cemeteries The Business Report & Journal Weekly Utilities Historic Landmark District Bryan County News Weekly Other Riverboat Cruises Bryan County Now Weekly Workforce Development Savannah Asian Festival Business in Savannah Weekly Savannah Black Heritage Festival Connect Savannah Weekly NOTE: ABOUT DATA Savannah CraftTHE Brew Fest Effingham Herald Weekly Savannah Film Festival Savannah Penny Saver Weekly and Jazz Society ThisSavannah report Jazz was Festival updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong The Center Savannah TribuneAtlantic State University.Weekly Savannah Music Festival (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's organizations. The Savannah Heraldbusiness and communityWeekly Savannah Philharmonic Orchestra andregional Chorus economic forecasting, economic Areas of concentrated research include impactPacket analysis, economic developmentWeekly and business The Island expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reportsThe on topics of state, Neighbor regional and local interest. The Center's West Chatham Weekly Population* (Savannah MSA) activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships Freedom’s Journal Bi-monthly with (Bryan, Chatham and Effingham Counties) public, private, and community organizations. The South Magazine Bi-monthly 2000 293,000 2010 348,507 Coastal Senior Monthly 355,576 Data2008 for this 334,562 report are collected2011 from public sources and generally lag anywhere the report is Skirt! from one to two years behind the date Monthly 2009 Most 343,092 2012 361,941 produced. data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latestVida yearLatina available, and some may end at 2011Monthly or earlier. This th largest county in Georgia. is ranked dataChatham may not County accurately reflectthe the5economic challenges that businesses and residents currently. While the Center for Regional Coastal face Family Magazine MonthlyAnalysis 152,992 households in the Savannah (2012)* and the Savannah Chamber have madeMSA every attempt to provide the most reliable available, they cannot be held liable for Georgiainformation Historical Quarterly Quarterly $47,059ormedian household income (2012)* omissions inaccuracies. Savannah Jewish News 10 issues *U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 1-Year Estimate. Savannah Magazine 10 issues This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia Semi-Tropical Climate The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah Television Stations and / Radio Stations that contributed to the 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. businesses organizations Average Seasonal Temperatures information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published Januaryat2014. See listings www.yellowpages.com Spring 66.3° Summer 80.8° NOTE: Media Web sites provide additional information Autumnresources 66.5° and Winter 51.5° Additional contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Precipitation: 48.20” average rain per year 3 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 1 Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 5 Contents ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah Savannah Quick Facts Featured Speakers 2012 Forecasts: United States and Georgia Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Savannah MSA Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Economic Trends: Savannah Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Economy Gross Regional Product Demographics Employment Population Household Income Industry Construction Health Care Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Military Real Estate Tourism Infrastructure Education Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Small Business Investment and Development Taxes Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air Utilities Other Workforce Development NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with public, private, and community organizations. Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for omissions or inaccuracies. This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 6 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 1 The National Outlook for 2014 Terry College of Business University of Georgia www.selig.uga.edu Dr. Charles B. Knapp Jeffrey M. Humphreys The Terry College’s 2014 baseline US economic forecast indicates that the economic recovery that began in the second half of 2009 will be sustained. The rate of 2014 GDP growth – 2.3 percent – will be higher than in 2013 – 1.6 percent, but below the average of the last 50 years – 3.1 percent. The US is well positioned for slight acceleration in the pace of growth courtesy of extensive restructuring of the private sector, including the cleanup of the financial sector, the aggressive write off of bad debts, deleveraging by consumers, and a more favorable balance of supply and demand for residential and non-residential properties. With the year-over-year rate of 2014 US GDP growth predicted at slightly above 2 percent the US economy will remain vulnerable to economic shocks and/or policy mistakes. The below long-term average rate of GDP growth reflects the expectation of tighter federal fiscal policy, the winding down of QE3, lingering problems in the European Union, and a lower growth trajectory for many emerging market economies. Also, it appears that there will be only moderate momentum exiting from 2013. Uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the US economic expansion – and the anxiety that goes along with it – will decline in 2014. The three main risks are the same in 2014 as in 2013; (1) a mistakes in US fiscal or monetary policy, (2) a large oil price shock, and (3) a financial panic originating in the EU. The probability of recession is 30 percent, which is lower than the 40 percent recession probability estimated by the Terry College at this time last year. In 2014, private final domestic demand rather than fiscal stimulus or net exports will be the primary driver of US GDP growth. Indeed, the government sector will subtract from – rather than add – to US GDP growth. Since federal fiscal policy will be restrictive, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will remain supportive of growth in private demand by maintaining a monetary policy stance that is simulative – characterized by near zero short-term policy interest rates into 2015. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve will wind down its purchases of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities – QE3. The Federal Reserve will strive to keep inflation-adjusted short-term interest rates negative and inflation expectations positive – albeit not too high. Meanwhile, the federal government has yet to effectively address its massive structural budget problems, which is what is needed to move the US economy from its sub-par growth trajectory to an average, or above average, growth trajectory. One reason US GDP growth will be sub par rather than vibrant is that we are going to see restraint in spending by U.S. consumers. Real consumer spending will rise by 2.2 percent in 2014, which is high enough to support GDP growth of 2.3 percent. Indeed, spending on homes and automobiles will make significant positive contributions to US GDP growth. One reason consumer spending will not rise faster is that many people are not too confidence in either the current situation or the future and therefore will remain cautious. Moreover, many households will still be deleveraging, and will be reluctant to take on risk. Deleveraging means that money that people might have spent on goods and services will go to paying down debt, which will limit consumers contribution to 2014 GDP growth. GDP growth of our major trading partners will strengthen in 2014, which will raise the rate of growth of US exports. The pace of import growth will accelerate even faster, however. Net exports therefore will subtract slightly from US GDP growth in 2014. One problem is that even though the EU’s recession is winding down, its banking and sovereign wealth problems are still far from having been resolved. While the situation in the EU is unlikely to cause a major financial panic in 2014, its growth prospects do not look good. The historical correlation between US GDP growth and EU GDP growth is extremely high, implying that little, or slow, growth in the EU will limit US GDP growth in 2014. A 7 second problem is that there has been a significant deceleration of growth of many emerging markets, especially in countries that delayed major structural reforms. The deceleration of emerging market growth, which is due to both structural and cyclical factors, reduces prospects for US manufacturers to export goods to the developing world in 2014. Spending on business structures will be a positive factor in terms of GDP growth, with spending on structures related to mining and petroleum posting the largest year-over-year gains. Due to weaker than expected growth of end markets, spending on inventories is expected to subtract slightly from 2014 US GDP growth. Meanwhile, the fiscal drag from state and local governments will dissipate in 2014. As of mid-2013, US GDP was 4.6 percent above its pre-recession peak. Indeed, it took only two years for US GDP to fully recover from the Great Recession. In contrast, the labor market is recovering much more slowly than production. As of mid-2013, 76 percent of the jobs that were lost had been replaced. Full recovery of the jobs lost to the Great Recession is expected in mid-2014. If that forecast pans out, it will have taken 5 years to recover the 8.7 million jobs lost during the period leading up to, during, and in the immediate wake of the recession. As was the case in 2010-13, the expectation that economic growth will be sustained depends on several positive developments. First, sales of both new and existing homes as well as spending on new home construction will increase. Second, credit markets will continue to thaw. Third, new jobs – and slightly higher wages – will be created in the private sector, which will boost consumers’ inflation-adjusted buying power. Fourth, businesses’ spending for new equipment and software will continue to expand. Moreover, increasingly such spending will be motivated by a need to expand capacity rather than to improve efficiency. Fifth, crude oil and gasoline prices should remain at roughly the same levels in 2014 as in 2013. Finally, limited inflation should reassure the bond markets and the Federal Reserve. If most of these expectations are realized and major federal fiscal policy mistakes and external shocks (e.g., major oil supply interruptions) are avoided, then the U.S. economy will experience sustained, but slow-paced economic expansion. Although many forces will power U.S. GDP growth in 2014, there also will be some powerful headwinds: (1) Declines in the Federal government spending will subtract from 2014 GDP growth. (2) Uncertainty remains extreme in many critical federal government policy areas, including the budget, the tax code, health care, regulation, and major reforms to popular entitlement programs. These uncertainties undermine confidence, delaying decisions by businesses and households to hire, expand capacity, or spend. (3) Efforts by the Federal Government to re-regulate certain industries, or to protect at risk economic sectors, will have the unintended consequence of reducing US job growth. (4) The EU’s main structural problem has not been resolved – monetary union without fiscal and political union – and its policy with respect to its sovereign debt problems is not inspiring confidence. (5) There has been a deceleration in the growth of emerging market, which dims prospects for US exports. (6) Consumers will exercise restraint due to continuing deleveraging. Housing Housing will be a strong tailwind for US GDP growth. That’s primarily due to cyclical factors, but it’s also true that the demographic trends are more favorable. This traditional driver of economic growth finally got traction in 2012 and it gained momentum in 2013. In 2014, the number of single-family home starts for new construction will increase by about 25 percent. Nonetheless, that large percentage gain in single-family housing starts will pale in comparison to the peak-to-trough plunge in activity that occurred. Single-family housing starts peaked at 1.747 million units (annualized rate) in the third quarter of 2005 and bottomed at 356 thousand units in the first quarter of 2009. As predicted by the Terry College of Business, existing home prices stabilized in 2012 and rose substantially in 2013. Existing home prices will rise by about 5 percent in 2014. Any remaining pockets of home price depreciation will be very spotty, reflected local imbalances rather than overall macroeconomic conditions. In most markets, home price appreciation therefore will bolster the psyche of the consumer and homeowners’ ability to spend. As the record of home price appreciation lengthens, potential homebuyers who have been waiting on the sidelines for even lower prices will increasingly opt to become homeowners. Rising rents will strongly reinforce this trend. Many investors pulled the trigger on home purchases in late 2011 or in 2012, but people who buy homes to live in them did 8 2 so in increasing numbers in 2013. In 2014, the share of homes sold to people who live in them will rise rapidly and the share sold to investors will decline sharply. Both the single- and multi-unit residential construction sub-sectors will contribute to GDP growth. This broadly based upturn in housing activity will add 0.5 percentage points to US GDP in 2014. That’s significantly more than the 0.3 percentage point contributions in both 2012 and 2013. Residential construction was a neutral factor in 2011. These contributions are noteworthy given that residential construction subtracted 0.5 percent from U.S. GDP growth in 2006, 1.1 percent in 2007, 1.1 percent in 2008, 0.7 percent in 2009, 0.1 percent in 2010. Going forward, the performance of the housing market will depend primarily on the performance of the labor market, mortgage rates, and credit conditions. Modest employment and personal income growth are expected in 2014. Those new jobs, and slightly bigger paychecks – plus appreciating home values – will give a more people the wherewithal and the confidence to buy homes, ensuring the sustainability of the housing market’s recovery. Mortgage rates will remain a tremendous bargain, but rates have risen above their recent historic lows and will move higher in 2014. That will occur as the Federal Reserve winds done its purchases of mortgage backed securities and treasuries – QE3. Home mortgages also should be somewhat easier to obtain. Credit conditions will ease due to the stabilization of home values in most markets – as well as due to slowly improving macroeconomic conditions. Despite overall improvement, credit will remain extremely tight for riskier loans. Although lending standards for new home construction and new residential developments will get a bit easier, credit lines and money to builders will still be somewhat scarce, restricting the supply of newly built homes. Also, low – perhaps overly conservative – appraised values will stymie conventional lending as well as housing turnover. Many households owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, which limits the availability of financing, especially for those with lower credit scores. Plus, many more homeowners are in near negative equity situations. These households will not be able to absorb the transactions costs involved in selling their homes, make a significant down payment, or qualify for a new mortgage. These homeowners are stuck in their current homes, unable to trade up or trade down. A potentially powerful demand side support for homebuilding is the rebound in the rate of household formation, which was quite depressed in 2008-2012. Job growth will be the key to unlocking the pent-up demand for housing that built up as young adults opted to stay a home a bit longer. Moreover, improving job prospects will partially reverse the recent surge in college enrollment and might also slow the rate at which student loan debt is piling up. Indeed, record breaking levels of student loan debt is one reason why young adults are likely to delay moving out on their own, get married, have children, and buy a starter house. Non-Residential Construction Although higher interest rates are a headwind, private spending for new nonresidential construction will increase in 2014, continuing the up cycle that began in the second quarter of 2013. Credit conditions will ease slightly for those looking to build nonresidential structures, but will remain very tight in markets with high vacancy rates. Employment and population growth gradually will generate gains in net occupancy. Tenants will still have the upper hand in lease negotiations, but to a lesser degree than they did in 2009-2013. Meanwhile, foreign investors will be keen to take advantage of a buyer’s market for U.S. real estate. These trends imply that the current up cycle in the nonresidential real estate will gain traction, but also will lack vigor. Office and retail vacancy rates will remain elevated, but will improve due to limited deliveries of space as well as less sublease space coming onto the market. Demand for new office space will increase the most in markets that benefit from growth of high technology and energy industries. Retail construction will continue to be limited by abundant supplies of existing space as well as online competition, but pockets of new retail development will appear in the most desirable locations. Industrial development will continue to benefit from rising levels of industrial production and capacity utilization, with new development focused on locations with logistical advantages. Less positively, spending for publicly funded structures will remain close to recessionary lows in many jurisdictions. The primary problem is that weak real estate markets have led to downward – or at least slowed upward – adjustments in assessed property values. Typically such adjustments lag movements in market prices by a year or more. Thus, for 3 9 another year, property tax bases will not be very supportive of revenue collections. Not all the news is bad, however. For example, sales and use tax collections will rise by about 5 percent in 2014. Consumer Spending After retrenching in 2008 and 2009 – the first outright declines in consumer spending since 1991, consumer spending contributed to U.S. GDP growth in 2010-13. The Terry College expects that consumers’ inflation-adjusted contribution to GDP growth will be positive, and slightly larger in 2014 than it was in 2013. The Terry College assumes that the deleveraging process – which already is quite advanced – will continue to be gradual rather than abrupt. But, uncertainties regarding federal fiscal and tax policies will diminish the push to GDP growth from consumer spending. In 2014, steady, albeit moderate, job creation coupled with a limited amount of wage and salary growth will help to repair household balance sheets. The drag on consumer spending from still tighter than normal credit conditions will be a limiting factor, however. The gain in inflation-adjusted consumer spending therefore will be about 2.2 percent, which is low from a historical perspective, but is higher than the 1.8 percent gain estimated for 2013. One reason why consumer spending will continue to grow is that household finances are improving. Going into the recession, household finances were in terrible shape. US consumers were heavily indebted and very short on savings. Indeed, by almost any measure households were extremely overextended. For example, the household debt service ratio – debt payments divided by after-tax income – stood at an all-time high of nearly 14% in 2005-2008. If you add in other financial obligations, such as automobile lease payments, rental payments on tenant-occupied property, homeowner’s insurance, and property tax payments, you get a financial obligation ratio that was nearly 19 percent. That’s also an all-time high. A depressed household savings rate also reflected consumers’ largess. The household savings rate fell to the lowest levels experienced since the Great Depression. Essentially, households opted to boost current spending by extracting more and more wealth from their homes – this, of course, was facilitated by lax credit standards. The house became the ATM. In 2014, homes prices will rise and credit conditions will continue to loosen. Equity prices also will be on the increase, but further gains will come much more slowly than in recent years. In mid-2010, personal bankruptcies reached its cyclical peak of about 408 thousand per quarter, which is nearly triple the 150 thousand per quarter reported prior to the recession. Personal bankruptcies declined slowly in 2011-13, but will still be a quite elevated 270 thousand in the final quarter of 2013. Consequently, households will continue to exercise restraint in their spending out of current income. As households shift their priorities from spending to savings, the savings rate has risen from its cyclical trough of only 2 percent in the third quarter of 2005 to 4.3 percent in 2013. It will rise to 5 percent in 2014, but for many households that level of savings will not be high enough to maintain current living standards in retirement. The household savings rate therefore needs to rise to at least 7 or 8 percent by 2020. That’s quite attainable – a 9 percent savings rate prevailed from 1961-1990. In short, a rising savings rate will be a secular headwind for consumer spending that will intensify through the end of the decade. The restoration of the discipline of saving represents an overdue return to normalcy that is helping households unwind some of the imbalances that developed in their balance sheets. For example, the household financial obligation ratio was over 300 basis points lower in 2013 than it was in 2007. In fact, the household financial obligation ratio has returned to the levels that prevailed in the early-1980s and the early-1990s. A lower financial obligation – or debt service – ratio not only frees up spending, but it also allows households to more easily service their debt. Similarly, outstanding mortgage debt has fallen from 107 percent of disposable personal income in 2007 to 79 percent in 2013. It will decline to 77 percent of disposable personal income in 2014. Prior to the housing boom, the ratio of outstanding mortgage debt to disposable personal income was about 80 percent. The protracted period of deleveraging has been painful, but it is also necessary. The statistics show that deleveraging is well advanced, but it is far from complete. One concern is that continued volatility in the financial markets may cause jittery consumers to push up the household savings rate very sharply in late 2013 or 2014, which would precipitate a recession. Fortunately, that is not the most likely scenario. 10 4 One factor behind deleveraging was the unprecedented cycle of wealth destruction that erased 24 percent – $16 trillion – of households’ net worth. That’s a huge number. In fact, the loss in net worth exceeded the total personal income of all US households for all of 2012. Households’ net worth began to recovery in the second quarter of 2009, which lessened one of the pressures that caused consumers to pull back sharply on spending. In the first quarter of 2013, households finally recovered all of their nominal losses, but on an inflation-adjusted basis net worth was still 6 percent ($4.4 billion) below its pre-recession peak. On an inflation-adjusted basis, full recovery of the wealth that was lost is not expected until mid-2014. The large wealth losses that accompanied the Great Recession not only crippled consumer spending but also dramatically reduced the amount of funds available to launch, or expand, small businesses. Personal wealth – not the credit markets – is the primary source of funding for new small businesses. Demographic trends (e.g. an aging population tends to become more risk adverse) and more business regulations also are behind the extremely low levels of new business formation prevailing in the wake of the Great Recession. At this juncture, job creation – and the income growth that accompanies it – is absolutely vital to the outlook for both consumer spending and the overall economy. The forecast anticipates that the nation’s job machine will remain in second gear in 2014, however. Job growth therefore will be adequate to sustain US GDP growth, but inadequate to raise the rate of GDP growth to its long-term average of 3.1 percent. With recent losses in household wealth and a greater focus on savings, increases in inflation-adjusted disposable personal income must account for virtually the entire projected rise in consumers' spending. The upturn in both the number of jobs and the number of hours worked per job are two factors the Terry College is counting on to support this income growth. In 2014, consumers' inflation-adjusted spending for goods will increase much faster than spending for services, with spending for durable goods growing more than twice as fast as spending for nondurable goods. Among durables, outlays for information processing equipment will increase very rapidly. Outlays for new motor vehicles and recreational goods also will grow quickly. Spending on nondurables such as food, clothing, pharmaceuticals, and other medical products will rise moderately, but spending for tobacco will decline. Among services, spending on vehicle leasing will increase the fastest. Providers of public transportation, recreational services, and financial services will see above average growth in spending. In contrast, consumers’ outlays for restaurants, insurance, and utilities will grow relatively slowly. Labor Markets On an annual average basis total nonfarm employment will increase by 1.5 percent in 2014, which is the same as the 1.5 percent gain estimated for 2013. Courtesy of the upturn in housing, job growth will be very broadly based. Companies will hire as domestic demand for goods and services expands, but progress will be limited because domestic demand will increase moderately. Meanwhile, global demand for U.S. exports also will expand, but slowly. Also, venture capital – which fuels job creation – will be more available than it was in 2008-13. Plus, most businesses long ago shed their redundant staff and are very lean relative to their actual staffing needs. Indeed, the rate of job destruction in the private sector will be quite low. Even 2.3 percent GDP growth therefore will generate 1.5 percent job growth. Also, GDP growth will outpace productivity growth in 2014, which will push firms to hire additional staff as end markets slowly expand. The slightly faster pace of GDP growth will sustain job growth, but job growth will not accelerate. Unit labor costs will rise about 2 percent, which is almost double the increase estimated for 2013. Output per hour and compensation per hour will rise by about 1 percent and 3 percent, respectively. Wages will rise by 2 percent and benefits by 4 percent. Health insurance costs will be the primary force behind benefit cost increases. Net job creation will be too weak to dramatically reduce the elevated unemployment rate, which will drop from 7.6 percent to 7.2 percent on an annual average basis. Although net hiring will expand, several factors will limit the gains. First, as discussed previously, below average GDP growth limits the impetus to hire. Second, the U.S. economy has exhibited extreme volatility, especially in the financial and commodity markets, which will cause employers to hesitate before adding to permanent staff. Third, the outsourcing of U.S. jobs to developing countries will continue to spread from blue-collar occupations in manufacturing to white-collar occupations in high tech and service industries. Fourth, uncertainties regarding federal fiscal, tax, and regulatory policies will restrain hiring. Fifth, the federal government will be downsizing its workforces, and this 5 11 restructuring will be permanent rather than cyclical. Sixth, the federal reserve will end QE3. Finally, some of the new jobs that businesses will need to create will not match the skill sets of the unemployed. Fortunately, structural unemployment stemming from labor force immobility will diminish as housing markets improve. But, structural unemployment due to the skills mismatch is unlikely to diminish and probably will worsen due to recent cuts in spending by many state and local government for adult/technical education and training. In the coming year, construction companies will post the fastest rate of employment growth. Professional and business services will see the second fastest rate of job growth. Natural resources and mining will see the third fastest rate of job growth. And, transportation and warehousing will see the fourth fastest rate of job growth. Education, health services, leisure and hospitality, and wholesale trade subsectors also will see solid employment gains. Providers of financial activities will see limited, but positive employment growth. Information is not expected to lose or gain significant numbers of jobs, but within this broad sector wireless telecommunications firms will be hiring even as wired carriers and publishers are reducing their staffing levels. The Federal government and utilities are the only major sectors expected to lose jobs. US manufacturers will continue to hire, primarily due cyclical factors such as consumers’ and businesses’ growing demand for durable goods rather than long-term structural shifts in competitiveness. For example, the up-cycle for housing will provide a strong tailwind to US manufacturers. Nonetheless, because the economies of EU and Japan have performed poorly, manufacturers who want, or need, to locate in developed economies increasingly will opt for locations in North America. The US ranks very high in manufacturing competitiveness in terms of talent-based innovation, the legal system, property rights, and physical infrastructure. China outranks the US in terms of both its low costs and its high levels of government investment in manufacturing/innovation focused research and development. Appreciation of China’s currency, the tightening of its labor markets, and low US natural gas prices are helping to shrink the cost advantage of manufacturing in China, but overall progress will be very slow as such gains will be significantly offset by rising regulatory and health care costs in the US. Durable goods manufacturing sub-sectors with the best immediate prospects for job growth include wood products, non-metallic mineral products, fabricated metal products, and machinery. In contrast, manufacturers of nondurable goods will be subtracting from their workforces, but at a very modest rate. Among nondurables subsectors, only food, chemicals, and plastics/rubber manufacturers will see positive job growth. Jobs will be lost in the textile, apparel, paper, and printing industries. Corporate Profits After-tax corporate profits are already at very high levels, but should eke out low single digit percentage point gains in 2014. Excellent expense management, low debt burdens, and more broadly-based – albeit moderate – growth in demand for goods and services will be the primary factors supporting profit growth. In 2014, financing also should be somewhat easier to obtain, albeit somewhat more expensive. Nonetheless, continued easing of lending conditions improves prospects for profits earned by smaller companies. The upturn in the housing market will be the primary factor contributing to the broadening of the base of profit growth. Growth in spending for business equipment bodes well for profits earned by technology-oriented companies. The upturn in housing markets will generate profits for many home-related industries. Productivity growth is likely to be stronger in 2014 than it was in 2013, which is a panacea for profits as well as the overall economy. It also bears keeping in mind that profit growth is very sensitive to movements in GDP. The Terry College expects the pace of US GDP growth to accelerate slightly in 2014, which augers well for domestically generated corporate profits. On the negative side, the year-over-year comparisons will be extremely tough to beat. Businesses’ pricing power is not expected to firm significantly. Finally, it’s important to recognize that financial institutions’ profit margins will be sensitive to problems stemming from Europe’s sovereign debt crisis as well as higher long-term interest rates. Indeed, the slow expansion of foreign GDP – especially the lackluster performance of the EU – will limit sales prospects for many export-oriented companies. Corporate profits generated from international operations in emerging markets also will grow more slowly in 2014 than in 2013. 12 6 Business Spending After dropping sharply in 2008-09, nonresidential fixed investment was a major driver of GDP growth in 2010-2013, with expenditures for computers and peripherals and transportation equipment increasing dramatically. Due to faster growth in both corporate profits and end markets, the year-over-year percentage increases in business spending for equipment and software will be larger in 2014 than in 2013. Such spending will grow much faster than GDP, reflecting the need to replace equipment, to improve productivity, and to become less labor intensive. Strong cash flows and easier credit – albeit somewhat more expensive – will fuel such spending. It helps that corporate discipline with respect to capital outlays over the course of the 2001-2013 was excellent. Also, lending standards will continue to ease in 2014. Plus, for many companies cash flows will be adequate relative to the amount of funds they need for investment, lessening the impact of lingering credit constraints or higher interest rates. And, after-tax corporate profits will grow faster in 2014 than in 2013, but it must be acknowledged that profits are already at relatively high levels. Business spending for computers and peripherals will post the largest year-over-year percentage gains. Substantially higher spending also is expected for industrial and communication equipment. Spending for transportation equipment and intellectual property will increase modestly in 2014. Below average levels of capacity utilization will be a headwind for business spending for equipment and software. Of course, much of the excess capacity is either in the wrong location or in the wrong industry. The rate of capacity utilization in all industries was 77.6 percent in mid-2013, which is up considerably from 66.9 percent in mid-2009. But, the long-run (1972-2012) average rate of capacity utilization for all industries in the U.S. is 80.2 percent. Capacity utilization varies dramatically by industry. In mid-2013, capacity utilization for industries producing crude products was 87.4 percent, which is above its long-run average and therefore should spur capacity additions. For goods at the finished stage, capacity utilization was 75.6 percent, a rate only 1.5 percentage points below its long-run average. In contrast, capacity utilization for goods at the primary and semi-finished stages of production was 75.5 percent, a rate 5.5 percentage points below its long-run average. International Trade In 2014, both real exports and imports are expected to grow about twice as fast as US GDP, reflecting the ongoing globalization of input and product markets. Since imports will rise faster than exports, the trade gap will widen in 2014. Hence, net exports will be a negative factor in terms of its contribution to US GDP growth. In 2014, the main obstacle to faster US export growth will be the economic and political turmoil in the Eurozone, but China and many other emerging market countries also will grow more slowly than in recent years. One reason why imports will grow strongly in 2014 will be slightly faster growth of domestic consumer spending, which implies faster growth of imports of finished goods as well as more outbound US tourists. In 2014, US export growth will be broadly based, and growth will be faster in emerging-market or commodity-based economies than in developed economies. Without exception, increases are expected for all of the major categories of goods and services. Exports of goods will grow much faster than exports of services, however. Growth will be fastest for capital goods. Emerging-market countries in particular are expected to spend more on equipment and infrastructure. Industrial materials, foods, consumer goods, and inbound tourism will see more moderate gains. It should be noted that the broad-based quality of U.S. export growth reduces the chances that export growth will stall in 2014. In 2014, the Terry College expects slight additional US dollar appreciation, but that will not hurt US exports too much. That’s because from a historical perspective the US dollar’s value is still quite low, and some additional appreciation will not cause US exports to tank. The current account deficit will equal about 2 percent of US GDP. Inflation If oil prices remain relatively steady, consumer price inflation will increase by 1.5 percent in 2014, compared to 1.4 percent in 2013. Of course, inflation will be even lower should energy prices tumble, or should the economy experience a recession. There are no signs that inflation is or will soon be a problem, and the usual drivers of inflation will not be much more intense in 2014 than in 2013. For example, the pace of 2014 GDP growth will be well below average and 13 only slightly higher than in 2013. Also, consumer spending and employment will both grow moderately. Plus, there is still excess capacity in a large number of economic sectors, illustrated by the elevated unemployment rate. Once U.S. economic growth builds up some steam, the Federal Reserve will move to take back some of its rate cuts. As long as the Federal Reserve does not keep rates too low for too long, the risk of stagflation remains very low. The Terry College expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold into 2015. The precise timing and magnitude of the future rate increases by the Federal Reserve also will depend on both the magnitude and perceived durability of the expansion. Based on the Terry College’s forecast of lackluster – albeit sustained – US GDP growth and a sluggish global economy, the Federal Reserve will begin increasing short-term policy interest rates in late 2015. Any increase in rates in 2014 will be investor-driven rather than Fed-drive and therefore will be dependent on the pace of economic growth. Thus, interest rates will only rise slightly in 2014. Heightened competition for jobs from both domestic and foreign workers also will help to keep the lid on U.S. wages and benefits by dampening workers expectations even as consumer prices rise. In the 2014 economy, workers do not realistically expect their employers to raise their wages to fully offset higher consumer prices. For the time being, workers will be willing to accept a lower standard of living. The outlook for inflation beyond 2015 is considerably less sanguine, however. Because inflation is a monetary phenomenon, the magnitude of recent monetary stimulus increases the risk of inflation. Also, the federal debt has skyrocketed in absolute terms as well as in terms of its percentage of GDP. That creates pressure to monetize the debt. Over the next decade it’s likely that inflation will exceed the 3 percent average of the last 30 years. Also, despite the lack of a good substitute, the US dollar could gradually lose some of its status as a reserve currency or safe haven. China and others with large foreign currency holdings may choose to gradually diversify their portfolios away from US dollar assets. Of course, the mushrooming federal debt does not have to produce more inflation; it may instead simply force US interest rates higher to attract the needed capital. Either way, outsized budget deficits can not be sustained for more than a few years without doing significant damage to the US economy and its prospects for growth. Over the long term, keeping inflation in check means fully embracing sound federal fiscal policy. Crude Oil Markets Absent additional significant supply interruptions it is unlikely that oil prices will go much higher or lower in 2014. Prices will range between $100 and $125 per barrel, but because prices are so volatile it would not be too surprising if oil were to trade outside of this band. Also, this forecast is predicated upon a slight acceleration in the modest pace of global economic growth, no major disruptions in the supply of crude or refined products, and bringing online new energy infrastructure. The primary reason crude oil prices soared in 2008 was that global supply was not increasing fast enough to keep pace with increases in global demand – driven mainly by emerging markets. In 2014, slow growth of the global economy will allow capacity to expand sufficiently to prevent oil supplies from tightening. Domestically, oil production is booming in the Bakken formation in North Dakota. Substantially higher output is also expected from Texas, and several other states. Oil imports therefore will decline significantly as a percent of GDP. Also, steady, high energy prices will gradually lead to improvements in energy efficiency, but those are long-run rather than short-run determinants of demand. 14 The Georgia Outlook for 2014 In 2014, Georgia’s economy will continue to recover from the Great Recession. The pace of growth will be modest, but faster than in 2013. Because the massive restructuring of Georgia’s private sector is complete, the risk of another recession will be lower in 2014 – 30 percent – than in 2010-2013. The primary risks likely to trigger a new recession are mistakes in fiscal and/or monetary policies, oil price shocks, and contagion of financial panics originating overseas. The risk of recession is the same for Georgia as for the nation. The Terry College’s 2014 baseline forecast calls for Georgia’s inflation-adjusted GDP to increase by 3 percent, which exceeds the 2.3 percent growth estimated for 2013. Georgia’s 2014 GDP growth rate will be 0.7 percent higher than the 2.3 percent rate estimated for US GDP. The positive differential reflects (1) the housing recovery, (2) strategic shifts in the state’s economic development strategy, and (3) more supportive demographic forces. The state’s nominal personal income will grow by 5 percent in 2014, which is slightly higher than the 4.2 percent gain expected for the US. Georgia’s non-farm employment will rise by 1.8 percent in 2013, which exceeds the 1.5 percent gain estimated for the US, but equals pace of job growth estimated for Georgia in 2013. The main headwind facing Georgia in 2014 is federal fiscal austerity, especially cuts in federal defense spending. Georgia suffered disproportionate job losses during the “Great Recession” and so far, has recovered more slowly. Georgia lost 340,000 jobs, or 8.1 percent of the state’s pre-recession employment peak. In contrast, the country lost 6.3 percent of its jobs. By July 2013, Georgia had recovered 65% of those lost jobs. Compare this with our nation having replaced 76% of its lost jobs. So, 4 years into the economic recovery and Georgia is still down 118,200 jobs. Fortunately, Georgia’s employment will grow by 1.8% in 2014. If that rate of growth is sustained, Georgia will replace the jobs it lost by mid-2015. The US will replace its lost jobs by mid-2014, or about one year ahead of Georgia. The lack of new business formation is one underappreciated reason why Georgia’s job growth has been slow. It is new companies that typically create almost all net new jobs. Business formation requires cash. The typical entrepreneur often obtains the funds needed to start, or expand, their business by borrowing, using their home as collateral. That’s been a problem for Georgia’s entrepreneurs because home price depreciation was much more intense here than it was nationally. Federal Housing Finance Agency data show that the peak-to-trough home price decline was almost 30 percent in GA compared to 20 percent nationally. Consequently, much of the home equity that households traditionally use to start a business evaporated. The good news is that Georgia’s home prices are on the upswing, up about 13 percent on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter. But, the lag between the market value of our homes and their appraised values will continue to restrain lending to Georgia’s entrepreneurs in 2014. Georgia’s unemployment rate for 2014 will average 8 percent, or about 0.5 percentage points lower than the 8.5 percent rate estimated for 2013. Private sector job growth will be very balanced in 2014. The fastest job growth will occur in construction, followed by professional and business services, and mining and logging. Education and health services, information, and leisure and hospitality will see above-average gains. Below-average job growth is expected for trade, transportation, utilities, and manufacturing. Positive, but slow job growth is projected for financial activities. In contrast, job losses will continue in the government sector, which is the only major economic sector expected to lose jobs in 2014. Prospects for Service Producing Industries in 2014 Service producing businesses led the upturn in Georgia’s economy that began in mid-2009, but some major service industry subsectors – financial activities and information – initially did not participate and continued to cut jobs. The 2014 forecast indicates that all Georgia’s major categories of service-related businesses will expand, with the broader base of growth reflecting the upturn in housing markets and growing demand for information and high technology services, and more competitive economic development incentives. Economic conditions and improving demographic trends will strongly favor Georgia’s beleaguered financial institutions, but re-regulations and less mortgage refinancing will be headwinds. Recent project announcements promise substantial job gains at headquarters operations – PulteGroup, Air Watch, Porsche, Carter’s Incorporated, Spanx, Mitsubishi Electric. IT companies also have announced major projects, 1 15 including Ernst & Young, CBS Corporation, Infosys. Healthcare IT is an emerging industry that promises to create thousands of high-paying jobs over the next decade. Services businesses that either lower costs or provide necessities, such as health services, will do better than those that provide luxuries or are easily deferred. Indeed, the outlook for health services is excellent. After all, the population of persons with multiple chronic health conditions that require medical care continues to grow rapidly regardless of the ups and downs of the business cycle or the uncertainties created by healthcare reforms. Some business categories, such as educational services, will benefit from positive secular trends which will be reinforced by the cyclical upswing of Georgia’s economy. Recent and continuing increases in spending for new equipment and software will underpin higher demand for computer services for businesses. The faster pace of economic growth will bring relief to many consulting firms, but tight government budgets will limit the gains for firms with many public-sector clients. Prospects for Manufacturing in 2014 Since the turn of the millennium, Georgia has lost 204 thousand – or four out of every ten – manufacturing jobs. The purge ended in 2010. Over the last two of years there have been many major project announcements, bolstering prospects for job growth in aircraft (e.g., Gulfstream), automobile (e.g., KIA’s suppliers), construction equipment (Caterpillar), and flooring (e.g., Engineered Floors) manufacturing. Cyclical economic recovery in combination with more competitive economic development incentives will help Georgia attract manufacturers in 2014. The incoming data shows that manufacturing jobs are not coming back too quickly, however. The state added 5,600 manufacturing jobs in 2011, 4,000 jobs in 2012, and an estimated 2,100 jobs in 2013. Manufacturing employment will rise by 4,100 jobs in 2014. That will sustain the cyclical recovery in manufacturing, but at that pace it will take 50 years to replace the manufacturing jobs that were lost. The bottom line is that talk of a manufacturing renaissance is overdone. To become a state where manufacturing activity truly concentrates Georgia will need to (1) develop a better educated and more highly skilled blue-collar workforce and (2) become a more fertile ground for developing and adopting innovative productivity-enhancing technologies. In developed economies, the manufacturers that thrive will be extremely capital intensive and much less labor intensive. The minimum skill requirements for factor workers therefore will rise very rapidly as manufacturers utilize much more sophisticated manufacturing technologies. Private-Sector Restructuring The main reason why Georgia got hit harder than the nation by the Great Recession – and underperformed during the first three years of the recovery – was the state’s heavy dependence on real estate development and homebuilding as well as closely allied industries such as building materials manufacturing and real estate financing. Prior to the housing bust, Georgia – like many other Sunbelt states – had become very dependent on a the in-migration of new residents and new businesses to beget yet another round of new development that was based in part on servicing the previous round of new development. Not enough of Georgia’s economic growth was based on innovation, educating its own people, courting emerging high-tech industries, and promoting the growth of in-state capital markets. The financial crisis and the bursting of the housing bubble caused the inflows of people and businesses to end very abruptly. The sudden drought of new construction and the dearth of new residents precipitated a large and painful restructuring of Georgia’s economy. The restructuring process was extremely drawn out due to the weakness of the national economy. Plus, it takes a long time to deleverage. The financial crisis and the real estate bust also did more damage to Georgia’s financial activities sector than to the nation’s financial sector. For example, the peak-to-trough drop in statewide employment in financial activities was 11.3 percent compared to a drop of 8.6 percent for the U.S. The outsized job losses in financial activities reflected overexposure to construction, land development, and commercial real estate loans which caused Georgia to lead the nation in the number of failed banks. The restructuring of Georgia’s financial activities industry was completed in 2011, with the sector adding jobs in 2012-13. Financial activities will see 1.1 percent job growth in 2014. Georgia also suffered from restructuring in areas unrelated to the bursting of the property bubble. For example, the state’s information industry – which is heavily concentrated in Atlanta – began restructuring and losing jobs back in 2001 when the technology bubble burst. A decade later, in 2011, one-third of Georgia’s information jobs were gone. Although the wired telecommunications subsector will remain in secular decline, employment in Georgia’s overall information industry began to recover in 2012, expanded vigorously in 2013, and is poised for another year of aboveaverage job growth in 2014. The much anticipated recovery reflects three factors: surging demand for newer innovative wireless services and high-volume data applications; Atlanta’s deep and broad pools of IT-savvy workers – often young 16 college graduates; and media jobs in film and television that reflect generous economic development incentives as well as Atlanta’s long established cluster of television jobs. Most of the growth of the film industry is taking place in either the Atlanta MSA or the Savannah MSA. As the direct and indirect effects of restructuring and the real estate bubble fade, Georgia’s sub-par pace of economic recovery caught up and eventually paced that of the nation. For example, in 2012, Georgia’s rate of GDP growth fell short of the rate of US GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points – 2.1 percent growth in Georgia’s GDP versus 2.7 percent growth in US GDP. In 2013, Georgia’s economy performed slightly better than the U.S. economy. In 2014, the 3.0 percent advance in Georgia’s GDP will exceed the 1.6 percent advance projected for US GDP by 0.7 percentage points. Public-Sector Restructuring The last remaining large imbalance – “bubble” – is hard to miss – its government spending. The restructuring of Georgia’s private sector is complete, but the public sector still needs a lot of work. Public sector restructuring constitutes the strongest remaining headwind for Georgia’s economy. The challenges are immense, especially at the federal level. In 2012, federal, state, and local governments provided 13.8 percent of Georgia’s GDP, exceeding the national average of 12.3 percent. Governments at all levels account for 17.2 percent of statewide employment, exceeding the US average of 16.4 percent. Of the 3 levels of government, GA’s state government has made the most progress adjusting its spending and staffing to reflect available revenue. The biggest remaining challenge for state government is uncertainty regarding federal funding for mandated programs such Medicaid. Pension liabilities and retiree health care costs will be the 2 nd and 3rd biggest challenges. Similar to state government, local governments will struggle with reductions in federal and state funding; pension liabilities; and retiree health care costs. But, on top of those challenges, some local governments have yet to fully reconcile their reduced ability to generate revenue with their spending and staffing levels. That’s mostly because local governments are extremely dependent on property taxes for revenue. The property bust decimated both residential and commercial property values. Although real estate prices are now rising, assessed property values will lag market values. So, some local governments will need to make additional budget cuts in 2014, but the headwind to the economy from restructuring local government is diminishing very rapidly. A new era of federal fiscal austerity is just beginning. The restructuring of our federal government is a headwind for Georgia’s economy that will remain strong for at least a decade. Federal spending accounts for 6.9 percent of Georgia’s GDP, which exceeds the US average – 5.3 percent. Georgia dependence on federal spending reflects the presence of many large military bases – defense spending accounts for 5.2 percent of state GDP compared to the US average of only 3.5 percent. In contrast, federal nondefense spending accounts for only 1.7 percent of Georgia’s GDP, which is below the US average. Location quotients, which measure the relative importance of an industry to GDP puts the federal government’s military impact in Georgia at nearly twice the US average. The default budget cuts mandated by the federal spending sequester are heavily skewed towards military spending. Georgia communities that are very dependent economically on large military bases therefore are especially vulnerable. Georgia would only take an average (or below average) hit if the federal budget cuts were focused on non-defense spending, or on the specific entitlement programs that are the root causes of the budget problems. After all, the major federal budget busters are Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid rather than the federal agency budgets. US elected officials must restructure on these popular entitlement programs before our economy can move onto a substantially higher growth trajectory. Housing Recovery Home building and real estate development have long been extremely important to GA’s economy. This traditional driver of growth finally got traction in 2012 and gained momentum in 2013. Housing and real estate development will be a very powerful tailwind for Georgia’s economy in 2014, helping the state’s economy to outperform the nation’s economy. The number of single-family home starts for new construction will increase by 36%. Not only do realtors and home builders benefit directly, but Georgia gets a two for one from the housing recovery because of increases in the derived demand for goods produced by our large building materials and forestry industries. 17 Georgia’s housing market is responding to a more favorable balance of supply and demand. Increased demand for housing will come mostly from 1.8% job growth. Those new jobs, and slightly bigger paychecks – plus appreciating home values – will give more people the wherewithal, and the confidence, to buy homes. That will sustain the housing market’s recovery. Meanwhile, mortgage rates will remain a tremendous bargain from a historical perspective, but mortgage rates have risen above their recent historic lows and will continue to move higher as the Federal Reserve winds down its purchases of mortgage backed securities and treasuries. Supplies of new homes are still constrained by years of under-building. Plus, there’s a scarcity of listings of existing homes. That’s partially because so many of Georgia’s homeowners are underwater on their mortgages and are therefore unlikely to put their homes up for sale. It’s especially troubling that the negative equity is concentrated in the low price, or starter home segment of the market. That hurts the trade up market. Also, many homeowners realize they will not qualify for a new mortgage. So, lots of homeowners will stay put. In Georgia, another reason why listings are scarce is that many homeowners are simply unwilling to accept today’s depressed home prices. Georgia’s homeowners saw very steep declines in home prices in the wake of the housing bust, but did not see a run up in home prices during the housing boom. For long-time homeowners, today’s prices mean real losses rather than the paper losses incurred in states where home prices surged during the housing boom. So, despite the fact that Georgia home prices have recently risen very quickly, listing are still somewhat scarce. Nonetheless, the current housing situation does not resemble anything close to a true “sellers” market. Listings are scarce mostly because home prices are still well below the levels needed to get homeowners who would like to sell to consider putting their homes on the market. For example, even after factoring in recent 13 home price gains, Georgia existing home prices are still about 20 percent below their pre-recession levels. So, Georgia home prices have only recovered to where they stood at the turn of the millennium. Once home prices rise above reservation prices, existing homes will come onto the market in very large numbers, preventing a true “sellers” market from developing. I suspect there’s a huge pent up demand to sell, but not at today’s depressed prices. So, this is still a buyer’s market. One reason home prices are rebounding is that the huge inventory of distressed homes is dissipating. The stock of foreclosures has dropped more than 40% in GA. Foreclosure inventory now accounts for only 1.7% GA’s housing stock. That’s well below the national average of 2.6%. There are two reasons why distressed inventory disappeared so quickly – GA is a non-judicial foreclosure state, which allows for faster resolution. Second, investors have been especially keen to purchase distressed properties in the Atlanta MSA. Investors are drawn to Atlanta because the home price declines here were way overdone. It comes as no surprise that the recent rebound in home prices is causing credit conditions to ease. But, appraised values lag market values. So, low appraised values will continue to hold back conventional lending as well as housing turnover. Another restraint on housing activity is that many of GA’s homeowners with mortgages still owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. That severely limits the availability of financing. And, even more of GA households with mortgages can’t absorb the transactions costs involved in selling their homes, much less make a down payment. These homeowners are stuck in their current homes. So, the trade-up market for homes is not functioning normally, but it’s improving. Existing single-family home prices will rise by 8% in GA in 2014. Lower priced homes will appreciate the fastest. That’s partially because the lowest tier has the most ground to make up and remains the farthest from full price recovery. But, it also reflects investors’ interest in purchasing inexpensive single-family homes for use as rental properties. In contrast, price appreciation for upper tier homes will depend mostly on the trade up market, which is still not functioning normally. As potential homebuyers see a record of price appreciation, more will opt to become homeowners. Rising rents will reinforce this trend. Last year, investors were the main force behind home sales. This year, people who buy homes to live in them joined investors to become a second major force powering home sales. But, as home prices rise and the number of distressed properties shrinks, home sales to investors almost certainly will drop. Sustaining the recovery of the housing market through 2014 means that trade-up buyers and first-time buyers must become more active. That up cycle has begun, but it’s not too vigorous. 18 4 There are still a lot of negative forces for housing, several of which already were discussed. One additional negative is that the image of housing as an investment has been damaged and will not be repaired quickly. Yet, another problem is that more federal regulation will keep credit tighter and more expensive that might otherwise have been the case. Of course, the biggest negative impacts of Dodd-Frank and qualified mortgage regulations will not be felt for a number of years. Economic Development In 2012, Georgia’s leaders passed key economic development legislation that made Georgia more competitive. The result is an increased number of large relocation and expansion projects announced 2012-13 that will provide a tailwind to Georgia’s economic growth in 2014. Examples of these projects include Baxter International is building out a facility near Covington that will bring 1,500 biotechnology jobs; GM will open an IT-innovation center in Roswell that will bring 1,000 high-tech jobs, Engineered Floors will open manufacturing and distribution facilities in NW Georgia that will bring over 2,000 jobs, Caterpillar is creating 1,400 jobs in the Athens area, Ernst & Young will open a global IT center in Alpharetta, creating 400 new high-tech jobs. In addition, Georgia continues to attract automobile parts suppliers. Recent examples include: Inalfa Roof Systems will open a manufacturing plant in Cherokee County that will create 300 jobs; and Hitachi Automotive Systems will double its workforce in Monroe, adding 250 jobs. Due to cost, logistics, and tax advantages, Georgia is very competitive with other states when it comes to landing economic development projects. As noted above, these advantages began to bear more fruit in 2012-13. That’s partially because Georgia made several strategic shifts in its economic development strategy, including the creation of a large deal closing fund and the elimination of sales and use taxes on energy used in manufacturing. Legislation passed in 2012 made Georgia more competitive, but Georgia will have to be very aggressive in closing the right deals. Georgia should target industries that expand the economic base and have good potential for long-term growth. Georgia must invest strategically and grow clusters in areas such as bio-technology or information-technology. The focus should be on innovation-based companies. Of course, Georgia must also make sure that its statutory incentives remain competitive – the statutory incentives help to get Georgia short-listed by site selection professionals. Then, only after Georgia is short listed, do those critical deal closing incentives come into play. A review of economic development announcements issued by the Office of the Governor and the Georgia Department of Economic Development indicates that economic developers are closing many deals in industries in which the state has the ability to produce at a low opportunity and marginal costs – comparative advantage. Specialization in activities where Georgia has comparative advantage bodes well for sustained success of the companies that received incentives thereby enhancing the prospect for long-term economic growth. Logistics, transportation, distribution, warehousing, information technology, transactions processing, headquarters operations, and several professional and business services are good examples of industries where competes effectively. Favorable Demographics Demographic forces are a third factor behind Georgia’s improving economic performance. For decades, Georgia depended on a growth model that was based on high levels of in-migration. That growth model stopped working during the Great Recession and was slow to restart in the recession’s wake. In fact, household formation dropped to its lowest levels since the 1940s. Due to job growth and the housing recovery, geographic mobility will increase in 2014. Inmigration will begin to rebound strongly. Also, the birth rate will rise as households become more confident in the current situation and their expectation for the future. Population growth therefore will be a much stronger driver of the state’s GDP in 2014 than it was in 2008-2013, but it will be less powerful than in prior decades. In 2013, Georgia’s population will grow at a pace that exceeds the national average – 1.3 percent for Georgia versus 0.9 percent for the U.S. So, the differential in the annual rates of the state’s and the nation’s population growth will be 0.4 percent. The higher rate of population growth reflects a rise in net migration to the state to about 61,000 people in 2014, up from only 29,000 in 2009. Nonetheless, prior to the Great Recession Georgia’s annual rate of population growth was about a full percentage point above the national average, which translates into about 100,000 new net migrants each year. The differential will widen as Georgia begins to generate jobs at a pace that is significantly above the national average. Jobs will attract young adults who as indicated above will be more mobile than they were prior to the housing bust. 19 Retirees Prior to the Great Recession, the stars were aligned for Georgia’s retiree industry. It was widely recognized that the nation’s elderly population would grow much faster than the total population, increasing the economic importance of the elderly. Freed from the geographic constraints of living near their jobs, many retiring baby boomers are expected to move to places more suited to a leisurely lifestyle. Also, compared to recent generations of retirees, baby boomers are well traveled and highly educated, two factors strongly associated with retiree migration. Another factor promoting mobility is that at age 65, many baby boomers will retire in relatively good health and can reasonably expect to live another two decades. A high proportion of the oldest baby boomers would be able to draw upon traditional pensions as well as Social Security and Medicare. In addition, by 2007, household net worth reached an all-time high. The financial crisis and the bursting of bubbles in the nation’s property markets abruptly choked off the inflow of retirees to Georgia (and elsewhere). For primarily economic reasons, people stopped moving. The Selig Center estimates that 68 percent of the decrease in the nation’s overall mobility rate was due to economic conditions and only 32 percent was due to continuing long-term trends. Despite the sharp drop in mobility, the state-to-state migration data for the period 2007-2011 indicates that Georgia remained very competitive in attracting the shrinking number of retirees who did move. Unlike some Sunbelt states such as Florida, Georgia continued to attract a healthy share of those retirees who moved from state to state. As the U.S. economy recovers from the recession, mobility will almost certainly increase. Although the Census Bureau has yet to release detailed data for 2012, the next up-cycle of state-to-state retiree migration probably is underway already, and will gain momentum in 2013. The oldest baby boomers turned 65 in 2011, but the state-to-state migration data show that comparatively few moved to a new home. As economic conditions improve and housing markets normalize, retirees who stayed put will opt to move to places better suited to a more relaxed lifestyle. Georgia’s will be in a good position to attract these retirees. Moreover, new census projections show that from 2015 to 2030, the U.S. population over 65 will grow by 53 percent compared to only 3 percent for the population 18 to 64 years. So barring a major pandemic, economic catastrophe, or a dramatic increase in traditional retirement age, the prospects are excellent for retiree-based economic development. Prospects for Selected MSAs in 2014 Atlanta A revival of population growth and the housing recovery will strongly underpin Atlanta’s ongoing economic recovery. A high concentration of college-educated workers will continue to attract high technology companies in life sciences, research & development, IT, professional and business services, and high-tech manufacturing. Compared to other large metropolitan areas with strong links to global markets the costs of living and doing business in the Atlanta MSA are low. The pool of talent also is large and deep for occupations that do not require college degrees. Businesses also are attracted by Atlanta’s extensive multi-modal transportation and distribution system. On an annual average basis, the 28-county Atlanta MSA will add 57,800 jobs in 2014, a year-over-year increase of 2.4 percent. Atlanta therefore will account for 78 percent of the state’s net job growth. Atlanta’s high concentration of service producing industries, IT companies, distribution companies, institutions of higher education, health care providers, life sciences companies and headquarters operations will keep Atlanta’s job machine in forward gear. Atlanta’s outsized information industry will benefit from expanding film and television production as well as surging demand for more sophisticated wireless services. Also, many of the larger projects recently announced by the Georgia Department of Economic Development were located in the 28-county metropolitan area. Major improvements at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport bode well for Atlanta’s growth, especially the completion of the new international terminal. The airport makes the Atlanta area an ideal location to operate corporate headquarters or facilities that produce highly perishable biomedical products. The airport improvements also will help Atlanta to become even more popular as a destination for tourists, persons attending business meetings & conventions, trade shows, as well as sporting/cultural events. One major plus for Atlanta in this new era of federal fiscal austerity is that the metro area is not too dependent on federal jobs. Only 4.0 percent of the Atlanta’s area’s non-farm earnings come from federal employment versus 7.7 20 6 percent for the state as a whole. Atlanta is not the home of a major military base. State and local government accounts for only 8.9 percent of earnings in metro Atlanta versus 11.4 percent for the state. So, public restructuring will be less problematic for Atlanta’s growth than for growth elsewhere in Georgia or for the nation as a whole. Albany On an annual average basis, the 2014 forecast indicates that the Albany area will see employment rise by 0.3 percent, or by about 200 jobs. A high proportion of government jobs makes Albany vulnerable to the restructuring of government. Indeed, Albany lost government jobs in 2011, 2012, and 2013. In 2011 and 2012 the losses were primarily at the federal level, but in 2013 all levels of government lost jobs. Another problem is that the area’s population and labor force have been declining and will continue to decline in 2014. Also, compared to the Georgia average, Albany has relative fewer people within the 25 to 49 age bracket, typically the most productive years, professionally. Because Albany is a small MSA, the actions for the better or for the worse by one major company probably will determine the area’s actual economic performance. One economic stabilizer for Albany is that much of the area’s manufacturing base is geared towards basic consumer staples, which households continue to buy whether or not the economy is expanding. Miller Brewing and Proctor and Gamble are good examples. Indeed, manufacturing employment is holding steady. As economic conditions continue to improve, Albany will capitalize on its assets, including a low cost of doing business, an excellent telecommunications infrastructure and a reputation as a good place to live and raise a family. The area economy will slowly rebuild itself. Albany is moving away from traditional manufacturing and towards its role as a regional retail, health care, and transportation hub. Albany will continue to fare well in its traditional role as a support center for agriculture, but dependence on agriculture does make the regional economy more exposed to the ups and downs of commodity markets as well as varying growing conditions. As consumer spending recovers, Albany will benefit from its role as a regional retail-wholesale-distribution center and from spillover from Florida. Redevelopment along the Flint River adds to Albany’s charm, and adds to the area’s potential to benefit from tourism and retiree-based development. Albany’s increasing role as a regional center for health care and education also weighs strongly in its favor, but the growth of both of these industries will be limited by the area’s sub-par population growth. Athens In 2014, employment in Athens will increase by 1.7 percent – about 1,500 jobs, which exceeds the gains estimated for 2013. Athens will benefit from several factors: Caterpillar’s new factory will expand over the next several years. Athens’ outsized healthcare sector is poised for growth, expanding Athens role as a medical service center for northeast Georgia. The establishment of a medical school campus at UGA in partnership with Georgia Regents University will encourage further development of the clinical healthcare and biomedical industries. The establishment of UGA’s College of Engineering will enhance entrepreneurial development and help recruit high tech companies and venture capital. Ethicon Inc., a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson recently expanded its operations in Athens. More exhibit space at the Classic Center positions Athens to attract larger conventions and trade shows. Although just outside the Athens metro area, the recent expansion of Kubota’s manufacturing facility in Jefferson will provide a boost to the regional economy. Athens could be held back by its outsized government sector, which will remain under severe pressure due to continuing budget difficulties. State and local government jobs account for 29.3 percent of the area’s non-farm earnings compared to only 11.4 percent of the state’s non-farm earnings. In fact, Athens is six times more dependent on state government jobs than the state as a whole and that is no longer an advantage. Due to the development of competing hubs elsewhere in Northeast Georgia (e.g., the Mall of Georgia and Discover Mills), Athens’ role as a major regional hub for retail shopping has been declining for many years. The development of the Epps Bridge Center should help improve the area’s appeal as a retail destination. The Athens MSA’s information, financial activities, and professional and business services industries also are undersized, limiting the impetus to the region’s overall growth from these industries in 2014. The information industry in particular is shrinking relative to the overall size of Athens’ economy. 7 21 Augusta In 2014, Augusta’s employment will increase by 1.5 percent, or 3,200 jobs. Strong performance of Augusta’s service producing industries, notably health care and private education are positives for the area’s economy. The metropolitan area will benefit from the construction of two nuclear power plants at Plant Vogtle. Augusta is a center for telecommunications services and call centers, including telemarketing and reservations. The Georgia Medical Authority will use the expertise available at Georgia Regents University to establish Augusta as a center for the rapidly growing life sciences industry. A new Starbucks manufacturing facility will bring 140 jobs to Augusta. Ultimately, Clarks Hill Lake will be an important factor in retiree-based and second-home development. Fort Gordon has grown dramatically in recent years and adds substantially to the area’s supply of well-trained, skilled workers. Nonetheless, Fort Gordon does make Augusta’s economy vulnerable to cuts in defense spending. Federal civilian and military jobs account for 15.8 percent of the Augusta area’s non-farm earnings compared to only 7.7 percent of the state’s non-farm earnings. Although Augusta’s undersized information and financial activities industries spared the region from the restructuring that has plagued these sectors, it also limits opportunities for renewed growth in those industries in 2014. Columbus On an annual average basis, employment will rise by 1.2 percent in 2014, or 1,400 new jobs, which is a significant improvement over 2013 when no jobs were created. The regional economy derives a larger than average share of economic activity from three industries: financial activities, government, and leisure and hospitality. The Columbus MSA’s regional economy is extremely dependent on financial activities. Indeed, the Selig Center expects the regional economy to become even more concentrated on financial activities over time. Improving conditions for financial activities in 2014 bodes extremely well for the Columbus MSA. The area’s economy is very dependent on government spending – mainly due to the presence of Fort Benning. Going forward, the Selig Center expects the MSA’s economy to become less dependent on government. The restructuring of the federal government sector therefore constitutes a major headwind for the Columbus MSA. Federal fiscal austerity significantly diminishes the near term prospects for regional economic growth and also makes the overall business environment more risky. The regional economy is slightly more dependent on the hospitality and leisure industry than the nation as a while. This industry’s concentration is not expected to vary too much over time. Nonetheless, the Selig Center’s expectations for the hospitality industry are positive, which bodes well for the performance of the Columbus region’s economy in 2014. Developments and short-term prospects for industrial recruitment and expansion are good, albeit not overwhelming. The expansion of Koch Foods poultry processing operations in Harris County adds 750 jobs. BlueCross and BlueShield of Georgia will add 400 jobs in Columbus to serve the state health benefit plan contract which kicks in on January 1, 2014. The reopening of Hostess Brands manufacturing facility initially will restore 200 of the over 400 jobs lost due to bankruptcy. Pratt & Whitney will expand its operations in Columbus, initially adding 45 jobs. Kia’s network of suppliers will continue to expand. And, despite tight defense budgets, defense contractors gradually will move to the Columbus region to be near their major customer. It helps that the housing bust was not too severe in Columbus, but by the same token the housing recovery is not too strong. Nonetheless, more stable home values over the course of the business cycle did less damage to households’ wealth and confidence, which should help in terms of new business formation and consumer spending. Lackluster expectations for the region’s housing recovery also reflects expectations that the robust population growth that accompanied Fort Benning’s expansion will slow dramatically over the next several years. Macon On an annual average basis, Macon’s total employment will rise by 0.8 percent in 2014, or by 800 jobs. The forecast calls for twice as many new jobs in 2014 than the area added in 2013. Macon's economy will benefit from its focus on transportation and logistics, financial activities, higher education, healthcare, and professional and business services. Macon is not overly exposed to the restructuring of the government sector. And, the Macon MSA is no longer overly dependent on manufacturing. 22 Macon’s role as a regional retail trade center will be an advantage in 2014. Macon’s central location makes the area a good place to host statewide meetings or conventions, but the region has yet to fully develop this advantage. Nonetheless, the hospitality industry will be a positive force for growth in 2014. One potential problem for Macon is that the number of young adults and middle-aged adults is declining. Macon is located strategically at the intersection of I-75 and I-16, has two railroad lines, and a good airport that is used by local residents as well as others from throughout much of South Georgia. The MSA’s role as a remote bedroom community for the southern portion of the Atlanta MSA will expand, further stimulating the economic development of Macon’s northern suburbs. Atlanta’s economic recovery therefore will benefit Macon in 2014. The driving time to Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport from downtown Macon is no greater than from the northern portions of the Atlanta MSA. So, Atlanta becomes more congested, sites in Macon will become very attractive to both private businesses and state government operations. The city’s expansive historic district, places of special interest, and revitalization efforts have turned Macon into an even more attractive hub for business. Savannah In 2014, Savannah’s employment will rise by 1.6 percent, or 2,400 jobs. The multiple personality: that of a major tourist attraction, an aerospace manufacturing center, a modern – extraordinarily successful – deepwater port, and a regional hub for health and educational services makes up the grounds for Savannah's continuing success. Although the metro area was hard hit by the housing bubble, it was not very exposed to the restructuring of the information or the financial activities industries. Savannah will benefit from the expansion of the film industry. It’s worth noting that Savannah is not too exposed to the restructuring of the government sector. Savannah’s long-term growth prospects are among the best in the nation. Savannah's unique ambiance and transportation infrastructure make it both an attractive place to live and do business. Visitors are drawn to the thriving historic district, and waterfront developments. Retirees will continue to be an important forces powering and diversifying the region’s economic development, but the Savannah area will benefit from the fact that its population is increasing for all age groups. Gulfstream Aerospace also is a very powerful driver of the metro area’s economy, providing thousands of high-quality jobs. Savannah's destiny is becoming a premier destination for national conventions, trade shows, and meetings. Tourism and convention business will continue to be one of the fastest growing sectors of Savannah's economy, reflecting substantial investments in the area's infrastructure, including a large number of new well-situated hotels as well as the Savannah International Trade and Convention Center on Hutchinson Island. Closing Georgia is making progress. It helps that the nation is continuing its economic recovery, even if it’s slow. It helps that the Georgia’s political leaders enacted some changes to make our state more competitive. We are landing big economic development projects again. And, it helps tremendously that housing is recovering. People are moving again, which bodes well for Sunbelt states that attract retirees. GA will outperform the nation in 2014. But, to outperform the average state by the large margins that Georgia got used to in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s, Georgia can improve its competitiveness by expanding improvement to areas beyond our tax structure and our economic development policies – such as K-12 education. That will go a long ways towards assuring that Georgia’s economic performance is once again among the best in the country. 23 9 The Savannah Outlook: 2014 Fuller E. Callaway Professor of Economics Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics Armstrong Atlantic State University Michael J. Toma The Savannah metro area economy expanded very slowly through the first half of 2013, but began to accelerate modestly during the latter portion of the year. The uptick in the tempo of growth in the second half establishes momentum that is likely sustainable into early 2014 will help Savannah’s economy post better figures for 2014 than 2013. While 2014 is unlikely to be a break-out year, regional growth is expected to be slightly above the typical pace for Savannah in recent years. This improvement locally will take place within the context of growing strength in the state and U. S. economy. The underlying diversification of the region’s economy contributes to its economic stability and vitality. For 2014, strength in business services, tourism, and manufacturing, along with increasing strength in port operations and the housing market should set the stage for above-average employment and economic growth. The diversification of the regional economy is provided by the strength of its underlying economic drivers that are (in no particular order) manufacturing, the port, tourism, health care, the military, and real estate development. Each of these facets of the regional economy will be discussed after the presentation of a general economic forecast for the region in 2014. General Conditions and Forecast The Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University produces the quarterly publication, Economic Monitor, that analyzes current economic conditions in the Savannah MSA (Chatham, Bryan, and Effingham counties), and presents short term forecasts for the area (available at www.armstrong.edu/economic_monitor). Following the severe recession of 2007-2009, the Coastal Empire leading index of economic activity for the region stabilized late in 2009, beginning an upward trend in 2010 that has continued into late 2013 with a few temporary hiccups along the way. The Coastal Empire Coincident Economic Index increased by approximately 0.6% in 2013, based on data through the third quarter, slipping well below the 2% gain posted for 2012. The coincident index of economic activity is designed to measure the regional economic “heartbeat” based on numerous factors characterizing important facets of the Savannah area economy. One of the coincident factors is nonagricultural employment in the MSA. The employment base started the year relatively strong and then faded somewhat toward the end of the year. By November 2013, employment growth was strong in the service sector, with leisure and hospitality and retail trade leading the gains and education/health offering some modest support. On the goodsproducing side of the economy, construction shed several hundred workers, but manufacturing held steady. The increase in retail trade and leisure/hospitality employment reflects the solid gains in the regional tourism sector which has recorded better than 10% over-the-year growth. In reaction to increased tourism, businesses serving that sector ramped up employment along with retailers. In 2012 employee productivity in retail substantially increased while firms were slow to hire, eventually, however, more workers were added to staff at year-end. This hiring momentum carried forward into the first half of 2013. The remaining coincident indicators (port activity, electricity sales, consumer confidence, airport boardings) were improved. Port activity started the year with modest growth, facing headwinds from slack growth in Europe and Asia, but picked up strength as the year progressed. At year-end, activity is roughly 6 percent of comparable data from the second half of 2012. Electricity sales, 24 which are a broad indicator of general growth in residential, commercial and industrial activity, increased nearly 5 percent from previous year data. Substantial increases in consumer confidence, which spurs additional tourism and consumer expenditure, will support further growth in retail trade in 2014. The Coastal Empire Leading Economic Index increased at a solid pace through the third quarter of 2013. Since the end of 2012, the forecasting index increased 3%, and is accelerating as 2013 closes. Continued healing in the regional housing and labor markets occurred in 2013. Building permit issuance for single family homes is up over 20% from 2012, and this should lead to increased hiring in the construction sector in 2014. Further, in the labor market, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to five-year lows toward the end of the year. Together with improved consumer expectations, these forward-looking indicators suggest 2014 will be a better year than 2013. Furthermore, given the growing base of strength in the region’s bedrock sectors in the second half of 2013, 2014 should shape up to be a better than average year. Not a break-out year, but one of above average growth. In 2014, employment in the Savannah metro area is expected to increase by roughly 1.5% to 2%. While this is well below the rapid 2.75% pace of growth set in the mid-2000s before the recession, it is much more sustainable as compared to the prerecession growth fueled by easy money and a nationwide housing boom. In fact, growth in the range of 2% is only modestly higher than the typical pace set in the extended period of growth from 1991 to 2001. While that period was not marked by rapid expansion, it was a period of solid, sustainable, albeit slower, growth. In other words, the new normal is much like the old normal, and 2014 is likely to just outpace the old normal. In other words, respectable and likely sustainable growth is expected through 2014. The pace of employment growth will further reduce the unemployment rate to about 7.1% for the year, and it is possible the regional unemployment rate could break below 7% toward year-end. Turning to population growth, the region’s long-run attractiveness as a place to live, work, and retire remains unaffected by shortrun business cycles. Tourist demographics (12 million annual visitors) describe a very desirable pool of would-be in-migrants. The typical Savannah tourist is well-educated, has above-average income, and is beginning to approach retirement age. Modest housing market recovery in the Northern and Midwestern markets that feed Savannah’s in-migration should begin to influence population growth in the short and long-run. For 2013, population growth is expected to be approximately 2%, roughly the same as the usual pace of growth since 2000. In conclusion, the Coastal Empire Coincident Economic Index indicates the regional economy has been expanding for nearly four years, more recently at an increased pace. The regional forecasting index is sending the message of continuing and increasing growth for 2014. Current drivers in the economy are the strength in tourism, port activity, manufacturing, and consumer spending, while construction will play a support role. Economic expectations for the year are modest, but are expected to exceed the performance of 2013 and resemble the typical rate of growth experienced in the years prior to the housing boom of the mid-2000s. Economic Foundations The remainder of the forecast considers expected activity in the six major underlying economic foundations of the Savannah MSA economy. Recall that these drivers are (in no particular order) manufacturing, the port, tourism, health care, the military, and real estate development. Manufacturing The metro Savannah area’s show-case manufacturers have continued to show resilience and strength in 2013. Mitsubishi Power Systems expects to expand to 500 employees. JCB reports a 50% increase in units sold and a 55% increase in revenue in a market that contracted by 10% in the previous year. Portuguese manufacturer EFACEC continued to reflect its status as a world leading manufacturer by completing a record setting power transformer. Weighing 804,000 pounds, it is the largest transformer made in the U.S. in over two decades. EFACEC currently employs roughly 400 people and has plans to hire another 200. Meanwhile, Gulfstream was setting a record of its own with its new G650 model business jet. The G650 established a world record time circling the globe for an aircraft in its class with an average speed of almost 570 mph. The Savannah area shows great potential for foreign investment. Israeli manufacturer Caesarstone broke ground on a new plant in Richmond Hill in November. The plant is expected to create 180 new jobs. The Korean tire distributer Hankook Tire has leased 500,000 square feet in the Tradeport East Business Center in Liberty county and is expected to create 50 jobs within three 25 months of opening. Indian movie production firm Medient Studios broke ground on its Effingham county facilities and plans to be up and running in the first quarter of 2014. Overall, 2013 reflected a year of strength for major manufacturers and proved to be a fertile year for the plating of new manufacturing seeds of activity in the region. There is little reason to doubt this trend will be reversed in 2014. The Ports Georgia Ports Authority handled 2.9 million TEUs of throughput in FY2013, the second busiest year on record. The ports showed strong growth as the 2013 calendar year came to an end with a 6.6% increase in TEUs for the month of November as new customers and national economic growth bolstered throughput. Notable developments that should further enhance port operations in 2014 include the appointment of Savannah as the primary port in the Southeast U.S. of the new P3 alliance. P3 is a new vessel-sharing agreement between the world's three largest shipping lines that includes Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping Co., and CMA CGM. The alliance will launch in spring 2014, pending regulatory approval. Second, continued strong growth in the refrigerated market with the expansion of Nordic/Georgia cold storage reflects Savannah’s continued increasing role in that growing segment of the market. Third, overall market strength in all key geographic sectors is expected that will yield further increases in Savannah's port related economic impacts. The Savannah Harbor Expansion project made crucial strides forward in 2013. In October, Congress allocated $461 million for the deepening of the port. Deepening the harbor allows the Savannah port facilities to compete for the larger cargo ships able to pass through an expanded Panama Canal. Retaining competitive port infrastructure is an important factor in providing economic growth for the area into the future. Political support for the project by Vice President Biden who emphatically spoke of the importance of deepening the channel and the political will to secure federal funding for the project. Tourism The leisure and hospitality sector continued to grow in 2012 with a 200,000 increase in overnight person-stays as compared to 2011. This spurred employment increases numbering about 1,200 to 22,600 total employees in 2012 and that carried forward into 2013. Direct spending by 12 million visitors increased by $160 million over the previous year, thus strengthening the retail market and supporting continued growth in higher-end boutique shops. Special interest tourism activities in Savannah such as visiting historic places, seeing cultural attractions, and enjoying exceptional culinary experiences highlight the Savannah experience. Tourism remains one of Savannah’s largest sectors and approximately one in seven workers in the Savannah area has a job in a tourism-related industry. Health Services Although the regional health care sector shed 500 workers to stand at 23,800 in 2013, the sector has been a shining economic star since 2007. The sector recorded employment growth of 7.8%, far exceeding growth in any other major subsector during a particularly difficult recession and into the post-recession period of recovery. The health sector continues to be a vital component of the area’s economy and growth prospects in the short and long run. The two largest hospital groups in the region, Memorial University Medical Center and St. Joseph’s/Candler, have both announced or undergone expansion projects in 2013. In April, Memorial unveiled renovations on their pediatric intensive care unit as well as The Children’s Hospital Outpatient Center. Further, in December, Memorial announced a partnership with Novant Health that would establish The Children’s Hospital of Savannah, a freestanding children’s hospital, bringing multiple related specialties into one location, a $28 million project. St. Joseph’s/Candler is currently renovating its facilities. A $15 million renovation of St. Joseph’s hospital in southside Savannah is currently underway and on schedule to meet its summer 2014 completion date. The hospital is being updated to provide more energy efficiency, improve its layout, and improve its durability to extreme weather conditions. In addition to its renovations, St. Joseph’s Hospital also received full accreditation for its Chest Pain Center from the Society of Cardiovascular Patient Care in February 2013. 26 Military Fort Stewart and Hunter AAF employed 28,872 total employees in 2013, of which 4,637 were civilians. Civilian employees on base earned a total payroll of $117.5 million in 2012. Total payroll for both bases was $1.4 billion. With its annual financial impact of $5.6 billion, Fort Stewart and Hunter AAF continue to play a central role in the CMSA economy as well as helping to stabilize employment through a period of modest economic recovery. In November, 2,000 soldiers returned to Fort Stewart from a combat rotation supporting Operation Enduring Freedom. Withdrawal of combat units from Afghanistan leaves the 3rd infantry division with no scheduled deployments. The regional economy, particularly that of Liberty County and Bryan County, along with southern/western Chatham County should benefit from increased trade while the division remains at home. Real Estate While the market for residential real estate remains well-below the unsustainable pace of the mid-2000s, sales of single family homes in the Savannah MSA surpassed 500 per month in July of 2013, the highest level since July 2007. Chatham County’s median home price remains low as compared to past years - $170,000. Average home sale prices in the Savannah MSA reached $203,400 in 2013, leaving the Savannah market competitive with other port cities as well as other metropolitan areas around the country. The Savannah market is in the most affordable third of national housing markets, ranking 656 of 1,997 according to Coldwell Banker. A total inventory of 3,541 houses existed on the market as of November 2013. Several notable residential developments were completed or broke ground in 2013. The Avenues on 61st on Abercorn Street and the newly started One Victory West multi-unit complexes marketed to the college student population will significantly contribute to the rental market in Savannah. Further, other developments are planned or are under construction in mid-town, West Chatham, Pooler, and the southside. The metro area office market has few notable developments anticipated for 2014. The vacancy rate remains at approximately 21% and is expected to remain stable through 2014 along with rental rates. Commercial development activity is improving in the Savannah area. Development of Market Walk near Oglethorpe Mall continues. This will yield a 117,000 square foot Kroger upon completion and will include a 55,000 square foot home for a big box retailer on the 24 acre site. In Pooler, the million square foot Outlet Mall of Georgia project broke ground, and will continue under construction into early 2015. A nearby waterpark is slated to open in mid-2014. Conditions in the industrial market continue to improve. The vacancy rate has dropped to 11% and increasing interest in space is being expressed by both local and out-of-town clients. Several smaller-scale speculative developments are likely to break ground in 2014 in what is seen as a positive development for market. Previous delivery of speculative industrial, warehousing, and distribution space had spiked vacancy rates to nearly 20% as recently as 2010. Absorption over the years has drawn down inventory and is thus spurring some reasonable speculative interest. 27 28 Contents ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah Savannah Quick Facts Featured Speakers 2012 Forecasts: United States and Georgia Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Savannah MSA Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Economic Trends: Savannah Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Economy Gross Regional Product Demographics Employment Population Household Income Industry Construction Health Care Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Military Real Estate Tourism Infrastructure Education Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Small Business Investment and Development Taxes Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air Utilities Other Workforce Development Savannah Economic Trends NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with public, private, and community organizations. The City of Savannah (78.1 square miles) is located in Chatham County, which lies south of the Savannah River, Data this reportbetween are collected from Carolina public sources generally lag Savannah anywhere from one to two years behind Area the date the report is the for boundary South and and Georgia. The Metropolitan Statistical comprises produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This Chatham, Bryan and Effingham counties. Liberty and Long counties complete the geographic boundary of the data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis Savannah/Hinesville/Ft. Stewart Combined MSAto (CMSA). Primary available, Trade Area, a designation that for and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt provide theThe mostSavannah reliable information they cannot be held liable informs linkages in population and shopping trends, includes Beaufort and Jasper counties in South Carolina. omissions or inaccuracies. This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 5 1 29 Contents Economy: Gross Domestic Product ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome Savannah Product in Savannah increased $580 million (4.8%) from 2011 to 2012; the fastest among the GrosstoDomestic Savannah Quick Facts Georgia metropolitan areas measured by the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. At just over $14.1 Speakers billion, Savannah’s GDP remains the state’s third largest, behind only Atlanta and Augusta. Economic activity Featured generated by Savannah’s private sector industries measured $11.5 billion in 2012 and accounted for 82% of the 2012 Forecasts: United States and 2010 Georgia economy from to 2012. Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Savannah MSA GDP ($millions) 2011 – 12 Growth Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Change 2010 Rank MSA 2011 2012 $ $ 13,530 $ 14,110 Savannah 13,024 4.8% Economic 1 Trends: Savannah $ 271,390 $ 282,505 $ 294,589 2 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell 3.8% Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University $ 5,107 $ 5,286 $ 5,478 3 Dalton 3.4% Economy $ 19,440 $ 20,204 $ 20,828 4 Augusta-Richmond County 2.9% Gross Regional Product $ 6,538 $ 6,635 $ 6,839 5 Athens-Clarke County 2.3% Demographics $ 4,826 $ 4,879 $ 5,024 Employment 6 Albany 2.2% Population $ 11,822 $ 12,438 $ 12,756 7 Columbus 1.5% Household $ 7,662 $ 7,905 $ 8,078 8 IncomeMacon 0.9% Industry 9 $ 6,281 $ 6,441 $ 6,534 Warner Robins 0.7% Construction $ 6,376 $ 6,836 $ 6,850 10 Gainesville -0.1% Health Care Major Employers and MajorU.S. Manufacturers Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, Gross Domestic Product by Metropolitan Area (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_regional.cfm/ verified on 10-21-2013) Military Real Estate A Tourism diverse mix of industries, busy ports and strategically networked transportation, logistics, energy and Infrastructure communications infrastructures create a business climate in Savannah that is unmatched in many larger cities. Education Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Small Business Investment and Development Taxes Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air Utilities Other Workforce Development NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with public, private, and community organizations. Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This dataSource: may Bureau not accurately theU.S. economic challenges that businesses and residents faceArea currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis of Economicreflect Analysis, Department of Commerce, Gross Domestic Product by Metropolitan Trade” is suppressed avoid the disclosure confidentialtoinformation. and“Wholesale the Savannah Chamber tohave made everyof attempt provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_regional.cfm/ verified on 10-21-2013) omissions or inaccuracies. measure of Savannah the market of final goods and produced within metropolitan areaGeorgia in a ThisGDP reportisisthe published by the Areavalue Chamber of Commerce, 101 services East Bay Street (31401), P.O. aBox 1628, Savannah, 31402-1628, The It Chamber to thank the many Savannah businessesactivity and organizations contributed particular912.644.6400. period of time. is the would most like comprehensive measure of economic provided that by the Bureautoofthe information andAnalysis analysis provided in thisDepartment annual update. edition was published January 2014. Economic of the U.S. ofThis Commerce. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 30 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 6 1 Contents Demographics: Employment (By Place of Residence) ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah Employers in Savannah’s five-county combined metropolitan statistical area have access to a diverse labor force of Savannah Quick Facts approximately 214,000 qualified, talented workers. The area’s universities, technical colleges and Workforce Investment Board programs offer Savannah-area employers and students an excellent selection of educational and training resources to meet Featured Speakers their current and future needs. 2012 Forecasts: United States and Georgia Employment in theof last few years in the ofSavannah Terry College Business, University Georgia MSA and CMSA has been affected by the nation’s modest economic recovery. CMSA Savannah MSA labor force employment decreased in 2013 (annualized, based on YTD through October) by 495 jobs. This is a 0.25% decrease in CMSA employment. Fromof2012 to 2013,Armstrong the MSA experienced a decrease Center for Regional Analysis, Department Economics, Atlantic State Universityof 78 jobs, a 0.05% decrease. Economic Trends: Savannahrate decreased from 8.3% in 2012 to an annual rate of 7.8% in data available through October Savannah’s unemployment Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University 2013. Economy Gross Regional Product Demographics Employment Population Household Income Industry Construction Health Care Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Military Real Estate Tourism Infrastructure Education Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Small Business Investment and Development Taxes Transportation: Roads, Rail, Air of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Local Area Unemployment Statistics” and Source: U.S.Water, Department Armstrong Center for Regional Analysis. 2013 is annualized average of seasonally adjusted data through October. Utilities Other Workforce Development NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with public, private, and community organizations. Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for omissions or inaccuracies. This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Local Area Unemployment Statistics” and Armstrong Center for Regional Analysis. 2013 is annualized average of seasonally adjusted data through October. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 7 1 31 Contents Employment (By ABOUT THE DATA (See NotePlace Below) of Work) By Sector Welcome to Savannah Savannah Quick Facts The Savannah MSA workforce increased 0.8% from 2012 to 158,300. Several sectors experienced significant Featured growthSpeakers in 2013, reflecting modestly improving general business conditions in the region: financial activities (+900 2012 Forecasts: jobs, 17.9% growth), leisure and hospitality (+1,900 jobs, 9.4% growth), transportation and utilities (+900 jobs, 8.9% United States and Georgia growth), retail trade (+ 1,500, 8.9% growth), and manufacturing (+1,000 jobs, 7.1% growth). Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Savannah MSA Registering smallAnalysis, increases or decreases in the past year were construction and information. These industries Center for very Regional Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University experienced changes of less than 200 jobs. Financial sector activity nearly recovered to pre-recession level this Economic year andTrends: was Savannah the industry with the largest percentage employment growth. Education and health services, Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University wholesale trade, and other services experienced the largest job losses. Economy Gross Regional Product Employment in the public sector was mixed. Federal government showed relatively minor decreases from 2012 to Demographics Employment 2013, losing 300 jobs while state and local government employment increased by 1,200 jobs. With the national Population economic recovery closing government deficits, net government employment in the area increased by 900 jobs. Household Income Industry Employment – Annual Averages Savannah MSA Construction Change Change Health Care 2012 2013 2007-13 2012-13 Industry 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Total Nonfarm* 162,200 160,100 151,800 151,900 152,300 157,000 158,300 -2.4% 0.8% Military Construction & Mining 9,900 8,900 7,300 6,200 5,900 5,700 5,500 -44.1% -2.9% Real Estate Manufacturing 14,900 14,900 14,000 13,700 14,200 14,500 15,500 4.2% 7.1% Tourism 6,600 6,600 5,700 5,700 5,600 5,800 Wholesale Trade 5,600 -15.3% -3.6% Infrastructure 18,300 18,200 17,000 17,300 17,500 17,300 Retail Trade 18,800 2.9% 8.9% Education Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority 10,800 10,900 10,100 9,900 9,900 10,000 Transportation & Utilities 10,900 0.8% 8.9% Small Business Investment and Development 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,600 Information 1,400 -17.6% -12.4% Taxes 6,100 6,100 5,700 5,500 5,100 5,000 Financial Activities 5,900 -3.4% 17.9% Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air 20,200 18,400 16,500 17,500 17,300 17,800 Professional & Business Services 18,100 -10.3% 1.7% Utilities 22,100 22,000 22,500 23,600 24,100 24,300 Education & Health Services 23,900 8.2% -1.6% Other 20,800 20,500 19,900 20,000 20,300 20,400 Leisure & Hospitality 22,300 7.3% 9.4% Workforce Development 8,000 7,800 7,200 6,800 6,900 6,900 Other Services 6,600 -17.4% -4.2% NOTE: ABOUT–THE DATA 2,900 2,900 3,000 3,200 3,200 3,100 Government Federal 2,800 -0.9% -7.3% 18,800 20,000 20,300 19,900 19,600 19,600 Government – State & Local 20,800 10.7% 6.2% U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau LaborCenter Statistics, State Area Employment, Hoursat and Earnings (2013 data are annualized adjustedThe Center ThisSource: report was updated by ofthe for and Regional Analysis Armstrong Atlantic Stateseasonally University. through November.) Retrieved at www.bls.gov on 12-21-2013. (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. * NOTE: BLS data are benchmarked annually; data for 2008-2013 have been updated to reflect these changes. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's Where JobstoAre activities arethe intended appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with public, private, and community organizations. Five industries make up similar portions of total employment in the Savannah MSA, further attesting to the area’s Data for this diverse report areindustry collected mix: from retail public sources and generally lag anywhere one to services two years (11.4%), behind theeducation date the report healthy, trade (11.9%), professional and from business and is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This health services (15.1%), leisure and hospitality (14.1%), and state/local government (13.1%). Manufacturing data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis for 9.8% of thehave area’s jobs, upattempt last year from 9.5%. andaccounts the Savannah Chamber made every to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for omissions or inaccuracies. This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 32 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 8 1 Contents Employment ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) & Wagesto Savannah Welcome Savannah Quick Facts From 2011 to 2012, the average weekly wage in Savannah increased 1.7%. Across all industries in the region, employees Featured Speakers earned $776 per week. In the Savannah metro area in 2012, weekly wages were $114 lower than those statewide. The 2012 Forecasts: percentage gap between wages in Savannah and the state increased between 2011 and 2012, increasing to a 12.8% gap United States Georgia year. from 12.0% in and the previous Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Savannah MSA In three sectors of the regional economy, manufacturing, agriculture, and health care, weekly wages in the region exceeded Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University weekly pay for the state as a whole. Weekly wages in state and local government also exceeded the state average. Weekly pay in all other sectors was below the state average. Economic Trends: Savannah Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Although Economywage gains in 2012 were modest, the purchasing power of those wages is enhanced due to the relatively low cost of livingGross and housing the region. This, combined with Savannah’s high quality of life, implies that workers and employers Regional in Product continue to receive a high return on value for area wages. Demographics Employment Population Household&Income Employment Earnings Industry Yearly Average, 2012 Construction Average Weekly Wages Savannah MSA Health Care Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Savannah Number of Military Industry MSA Georgia Employment Establishments Real Estate Tourism Construction $804 $918 5,236 747 Infrastructure Manufacturing $1,420 $1,019 15,055 245 Education Wholesale Trade $1,098 $1,338 4,945 444 Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Retail Trade $500 $512 17,838 1,336 Small Business Investment and Development Transportation and Warehousing $716 $978 9,923 451 Taxes Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air Utilities $1,491 $1,563 468 19 Utilities Information $936 $1,609 1,396 115 Other Finance and Insurance $1,131 $1,482 3,365 504 Workforce Development Real Estate and Rental and Leasing $626 $948 1,880 400 Professional, $1,032 $1,468 4,685 855 NOTE: ABOUTScientific/Tech THE DATA Services Education Services $834 $907 3,753 75 This report wasSocial updated by the Center for $888 Regional Analysis Health Care and Assistance $875 at Armstrong Atlantic 18,529 State University.800The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets $434 the applied research business and community Arts, Entertainment and Recreation $609 needs of Savannah's1,946 114organizations. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business Accommodation and Food Services $320 $327 19,316 1,021 expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's Other Services (except Public Admin.) $589 696 activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and$602 the Center stands ready 4,190 to enter into cooperative partnerships with Government – Federal $1,276 $1,326 3,183 90 public, private, and community organizations. Government – State $856 $781 5,138 106 Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date Government – Local $749 $710 14,206 57 the report is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This ALL INDUSTRIES $776 $890 148,221 9,201 data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis Source: Georgia Department of Labor, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Employment and Wages, 2012 Averages and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for Retrieved at www.dol.state.ga.us on 11-11-2013. omissions or inaccuracies. This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannahresources Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 9 1 33 Contents Demographics: Population ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Dynamic population growth, a robust business climate, and a thriving artistic and cultural community come together Welcome to Savannah Savannah Quick to create theFacts highest quality work and home environments in Savannah, one of the nation’s loveliest and most historic port cities. Savannah’s allure has been recognized nationally by USA Today as one of “America’s Top 10 Featured Speakers Waterfronts,” the “Best City for Affordable Getaway” as well as one of “America’s Best Cities” by Travel + Leisure 2012 Forecasts: and received “Reader’s Choice Award” from ConventionSouth Magazine as well as the Pinnacle Award of United States andthe Georgia Excellence fromof“Successful Meetings.” Terry College Business, University of Georgia Savannah MSA Center for Regional Analysis, DepartmentGrowth of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Growing Population Spurs Economic Savannah’s local market region extends in a 40-mile radius from its historic downtown. Commuters, shoppers, Economic Trends: Savannah students, visitors, and others are economically and socially linked in a primary trade area that includes Liberty and Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Long counties in the Hinesville/Ft. Stewart MSA and portions of Beaufort and Jasper counties in South Carolina. Economy Gross Regional Product Demographics Chatham County, with more than 275,000 residents is the fifth most populous county in Georgia and serves as the Employment economic hub of the region. Furthermore, over 635,000 people now live, work, and shop in the Savannah Primary Population Trade Area, which from 2000 to 2012, added about 10,900 net new residents a year. Long County grew fastest in Household Income 2012 (+5.6%), while Chatham County added the most people (4,538). All counties experienced a positive growth in Industry population in 2012. Construction Health Care Chatham County and continues to be the most densely populated county, with 638 persons per square mile. Long Major Employers Major Manufacturers County Militaryand Jasper counties are the least densely populated counties with 38 and 39 persons per square mile Real Estate respectively. Tourism Infrastructure Population* Education Savannah MSA, CMSA, and Primary Trade Area County Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Land Area Small Business Investment and Development (square Taxes 2000-2012 miles) Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air / Persons Average 2011Utilities Per Sq. Annual 2012 Other Area 2000 2009 2010 2011 2012 Mile Growth Growth WorkforceChatham Development 232,048 256,992 265,998 271,896 276,434 1.6% 1.7% 426/638 Effingham 37,535 53,541 52,420 52,657 53,293 3.5% 1.2% 478/110 NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA Bryan 23,417 32,559 30,412 31,291 32,214 3.1% 2.9% 436/72 Savannah MSA 293,000 343,092 348,830 355,844 361,941 2.0% 1.7% 1340/266 This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Libertyresearch61,610 62,186 65,471 0.5% development 0.1% 490/133 Areas of concentrated include regional economic62,773 forecasting, 65,375 economic impact analysis, economic and business Long 10,304 12,234 14,661 15,202on topics 16,048 4.6% 400/38 expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports of state, regional and local5.6% interest. The Center's activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with Savannah/ public, private, and community organizations. 364,914 417,512 426,264 436,421 443,460 1.8% 1.6% 2230/196 Hinesville/Ft. Stewart CMSA Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This Beaufort (SC) 120,937 155,215 162,978 164,419 168,049 3.2% 2.2% 576/285 data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis Jasper (SC) 20,678 23,221 24,945 25,330 25,833 2.1% 2.0% 655/39 and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for Savannah Primary omissions or inaccuracies. 3461/181 506,529 595,948 614,187 626,170 637,342 2.2% 1.8% Trade Area Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Annual Population Estimates retrieved 12/06/2013. ThisNOTE: report published bypopulation the Savannah Chamber of for Commerce, Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia *TheisCensus Bureau’s estimatesArea are revised: numbers previous years101 haveEast been Bay updated. 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. 34 Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 10 1 Contents Population ProjectedTHE Growth and (See Current AgeBelow) Distribution ABOUT DATA Note Welcome to Savannah Savannah’s Projected to Grow Nearly 50% Savannah QuickPopulation Facts Population in the Savannah MSA is projected to grow 69.18%, adding more than 202,000 people from 2000 to Featured Speakers to a study by the Georgia Office of Planning and Budget. More than 840,000 people will call the 102030, according 2012 Forecasts: county Coastal Region home by 2030. During this period, Chatham’s population is projected to increase by 39.67%; United States and Georgia BryanTerry will College grow byof154%; andUniversity EffinghamofCounty Business, Georgiawill jump 198%. Savannah MSA Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Economic Trends: Savannah Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Economy Gross Regional Product Demographics Employment Population Household Income Industry Construction Health Care Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Military Real Estate Tourism Infrastructure Education Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Small Business Investment and Development Taxes Source:Transportation: State of Georgia Office of Budget Planning, Roads, Rail,and Water, Air Georgia 2030: Population Projections, retrieved 10-12-2012 at http://www.georgialibraries.org/lib/construction/georgia_population_projections_march_2010.pdf Utilities Other In theWorkforce Savannah MSA, 6.9% of the population is aged 5 years and younger. The Savannah MSA has many Development residents in their prime spending years with nearly 76% over 18 years of age, and Chatham County leads the MSA NOTE: ABOUT DATA with 76.2% of THE the population over 18. Chatham County also holds the highest share of those over the age of 65: 12.6%. This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center Population by Age Group 2010-2012 (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics state, regional local interest. The Center's 2010 - 2012 Est. 2012 Est. Total % 5ofyears % 18 and Years % 65 Years activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with Area Total Population Population and Under and Over and Over public, private, and community organizations. Chatham 271,443 276,434 7.0% 77.6% 12.6% Effingham 52,790 53,293 6.7% 71.9% 9.9% Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is Bryan 31,306 32,214 6.7% 71.1% 8.8% produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This Savannah MSA challenges355,539 361,941 6.9% While the76.2% 11.9% data may not accurately reflect the economic that businesses and residents face currently. Center for Regional Analysis and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for Savannah/Hinesville/Ft.Stewart CMSA 436,127 442,529 7.5% 75.1% 10.9% omissions or inaccuracies. This report is published the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street7.2% (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Savannah PrimarybyTrade Area 626,645 633,047 76.2% 13.7%Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis providedFactfinder, in this annual update. This editionSurvey was published January 2014. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American 2010-2012 American Community 3-Year Estimates, and U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 Demographic Estimates, retrieved 12-06-2013 at http://factfinder2.census.gov Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 11 1 35 Contents Population ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Distribution by Household Income and Race Welcome to Savannah Savannah Quick Facts Hispanic or Latino (of any race): Featured Speakers MSA 2012 Forecasts: United States and Georgia Chatham County Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Effingham County Savannah MSA Bryan County Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University 5.2% 5.7% 3.0% 5.1% Others: Economic Trends: Savannah American Indian/Alaska Native 0.3% Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Economy Native Hawaiian/Pac. Islander 0.1% Gross Regional Product Some Other Race 0.2% Demographics Two or More Races 1.4% Employment Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 ACS 3-Year Survey Population retrieved 12/10/2013 at http://factfinder2.census.gov Household Income Industry Construction Health Care population grows, so do the incomes and benefits available to its residents. In the Savannah MSA, As Savannah’s Major Employers and Major Manufacturers three-year U.S. Census estimates show that median household income is significantly higher in Bryan County and Military lower in the City of Savannah. Real Estate Tourism Infrastructure Chatham County and the City of Savannah have more households earning less than $25,000 annually, while the Education of households earning between $25,000 and $49,999 is fairly evenly distributed among most of the percentage Portshown of Savannah: Ports Authority areas in theGeorgia table below. The differences among Savannah’s geographic areas are clear in the $50,000 to Small Business Investment and Development $149,999 income range, with Chatham County and the City of Savannah falling behind Bryan, Effingham, and Taxes Beaufort counties. Beaufort County Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air continues to hold the distinction of having the highest concentration of households earning more than $150,000. Utilities Other 2010-2012 Estimates of Income for Select Areas (in 2011 inflation-adjusted dollars) Workforce Development Average Median $25,000 Number of Household Household Less than to $50,000 to $150,000 Area Households Income Income $25,000 $49,999 $149,999 and Over ThisSavannah report Urban was Area updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) applied research needs of Savannah's business 51,445 meets the46,779 34,832 36.8% 28.4% and community 31.6% organizations. 3.2% (City) Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, and specialty reports of state, regional interest. The Center's Chathamtourism Countydevelopment, survey-based 100,981 research, 60,826 44,356on topics27.9% 27.4% and local38.1% 6.6% activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with Effingham County 17,871 72,397 64,203 18.6% 18.9% 56.8% 5.7% public, private, and community organizations. Bryan County 10,956 74,283 62,351 17.9% 23.2% 51.6% 7.3% MSA are collected from 129,587 62,763 25.7% 6.3% is DataSavannah for this report public sources and generally lag 47,732 anywhere from one to two26.2% years behind41.8% the date the report produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This dataBeaufort may notCounty accurately challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While for Regional10.0% Analysis (SC)reflect the economic 63,600 76,762 56,369 18.2% 26.2%the Center 45.7% and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for omissions or inaccuracies. Georgia 3,504,888 65,668 47,642 26.8% 25.1% 40.5% 7.7% NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Factfinder2, 2010-2012 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates, retrieved 12/10/2013 at http://factfinder2.census.gov 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 36 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 13 1 Contents Industry: Construction ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah Permitting Activity Savannah Quick Facts While still recovering from the economic downturn, total costs of newly permitted construction rose sharply to $133.7 million in 2012, anSpeakers increase of 22.3% from 2011. Single family permits increased sharply in 2012 with an increase of 23.8% over 2011. Featured The in total residential construction were due to the increase in single family building permits, as multi-family permits 2012increases Forecasts: extended a downward trend dating back to 2007. United States and Georgia Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Savannah MSA Chatham County Building Permits Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Single Family Multi-Family Total Permits Construction Cost Permits Construction Cost Permits Construction Cost Economic 2002 Trends: 1,101Savannah$158,257,072 57 $40,389,000 1,158 $198,646,072 Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University 2003 1,314 $193,024,038 33 $10,479,663 1,347 $203,503,701 Economy 2004 1,366 $224,553,004 47 $23,470,839 1,413 $248,023,843 Gross Regional Product 2005 1,892 $281,012,484 77 $39,820,995 1,969 $320,833,479 Demographics 2006 2,692 $399,764,638 52 $41,763,018 2,744 $441,527,656 Employment Population1,908 2007 $297,269,791 84 $44,880,236 1,992 $342,150,027 Household1,117 Income 2008 $163,057,158 45 $42,084,952 1,162 $205,142,110 Industry 2009 785 $108,170,515 26 $17,654,193 811 $125,824,708 Construction 2010 676 $87,335,207 24 $14,345,471 700 $101,680,678 Health Care 2011 655 $84,463,420 28 $24,873,596 683 $109,337,016 Major Employers and Major Manufacturers 2012 811 $122,205,698 15 $11,515,108 826 $133,720,806 Military Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Annual New Privately-Owned Residential Building Permits. Retrieved 12/2013. Real Estate Multi-family consists of two family, three or four family, and five or more family categories. Tourism Infrastructure Residential Construction Declines in the Savannah MSA Education The regional housing market continues to show slow, but accelerating growth since the 2010 trough. The number of singlePort of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority familySmall homes permitted in 2012and increased 20.4%, a rate that far exceeds the 2.7% growth of the previous year. A total of 1,263 Business Investment Development singleTaxes family home building permits were issued over the course of the year. The average value per unit in 2012 was $159,000 - an increase of 7.9%. Further, through Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air the first three quarters of 2013, the number of single family home building permits issuedUtilities is approximately 20% higher than in 2012. The number of two-to-four-unit family dwellings permitted fell back to its 2010 Otherlevel of 10 units in 2012 from 26 units in 2011. Workforce Development NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with public, private, and community organizations. Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for omissions or inaccuracies. This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual This edition wasA&M published 2014. Source: U.S. Bureau of Census andupdate. Real Estate Center at Texas University.January http://recenter.tamu.edu, retrieved 12/2013 Savannahresources Area Chamber of Commerce Additional and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 2014 Economic Trends Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 14 1 37 Contents Industry: Health Care ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah Two nationally recognized medical centers deliver top quality health care in the city: Memorial University Medical Center and Savannah Quick Facts the St. Joseph’s/Candler Health System. These centers and the advanced medical specialties they offer attract people from all over southeast Featured SpeakersGeorgia and the southern coastal area of South Carolina. The medical facilities are also the top two private nonmanufacturing employers in the metropolitan area. 2012 Forecasts: United States and Georgia Ambulatory healthofcare services accounted for $652 million of personal income in the Savannah MSA in 2011, or 6.0% of total Terry College Business, University of Georgia private sources Savannah MSA of personal income. According to the Georgia Department of Labor, Candler Hospital Inc. and Memorial University Medical Center are ranked as two of largest employers the Savannah MSA in 2012. Center for Regional Analysis, Department of ten Economics, ArmstronginAtlantic State University Economic Trends: Savannah Compiled by the Center for Regional Memorial University Medical CenterAnalysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Economy www.memorialhealth.com Gross Regional Product Demographics Memorial Health in Savannah, Georgia, is a nonprofit, two-state healthcare organization that serves 35 counties in southeast Employment Georgia and southern South Carolina. The system includes Memorial University Medical Center -- a 622 bed academic Population hospital, primary and specialty care physician practices, a major medical education program, business and industry services, Household Income and a 24-hour nurse call center. Industry Construction Memorial houses a number of services that are not available at any other hospitals in the region, including a Level 1 trauma Health Care center, children’s and hospital, Level 3 neonatal intensive care nursery, and a cancer research laboratory. Majora Employers MajoraManufacturers Military Real Estate Memorial has earned local, state, and national accolades for its clinical services and patient safety programs. With Tourism approximately 5,000 Team Members and more than 600 physicians on staff, Memorial is the largest healthcare provider in Infrastructure southeast Georgia. Education Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Business Investment and Development St. Small Joseph’s/Candler Health System Taxes www.sjchs.com Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air Utilities Two Savannah hospitals partnered in 1997 to create the St. Joseph’s/Candler Health System, the largest faith-based nonprofit Other health institution in the region. Its two anchor hospitals, St. Joseph’s Hospital and Candler Hospital, have total capacities of Workforce Development 305 beds and 331 beds respectively. SJ/C offers primary care and more than a dozen specialized inpatient and outpatient services including those for women and children, oncology, pulmonology, cardiovascular care, digestive disease services, NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA neurological/neurosurgical care, and orthopedics. This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center Top tertiary care is provided at its Centers meets of Excellence: (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Nancy N. and J.C.regional Lewis Cancer andforecasting, Research Pavilion Areas of concentrated research include economic economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's development, The Heart Hospital activities are intended to appeal to aWomen’s broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with Mary Telfair Hospital public, private, and community organizations. Institute for Advanced Bone and Joint Surgery The Institute for Neurosciences Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This SJ/C has achieved network accreditation status – a rare honor – in addition to its accreditation by the Joint Commission. It is data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis the only health provider in the region to have achieved both network accreditation status and MAGNET status for nursing and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for excellence. The Nancy N. and J.C. Lewis Cancer & Research Pavilion is an original designee of the National Cancer Institute's omissions or inaccuracies. Community Cancer Centers Program. SJ/C has earned the highest award for stroke care by the American Stroke Association. received the 2012 Foster McGaw Prize for Excellence in Community from the American Association. ThisSJ/C report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Services Bay Street (31401), P.O. BoxHospital 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the Source: Revised 11/2013 from MUMC and SJCHS. information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 38 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 16 1 Contents Industry: Major Employers ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah Business establishments numbered 9,201 in the Savannah MSA in 2012, a net increase of 186 firms from 2011. Savannah Quick Facts Featured Speakers Major Employers (Non-Manufacturing) 2012 Forecasts: Corporation / Organization Service / Product United States and Georgia Memorial University Medical Center Hospital Terry College of Business, University of Georgia St. Joseph’s/Candler Hospital Savannah MSA Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Wal-Mart Retail Atlantic State University Marine Terminals Corp. Marine cargo handling Economic Trends: Savannah Compiled by the SSA Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong AtlanticMarine State University Cooper cargo handling Economy Kroger Retail food Gross Regional Product Demographics Snelling Staffing Services Employment services Employment Georgia Regional Hospital Hospital Population Household Income UTC Overseas Logistics Industry Target Retail Construction Health Care Schneider National Inc. Trucking Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Colonial Group Inc. Petroleum products Military Publix Retail food Real Estate Tourism McDonalds Restaurant Infrastructure Southcoast Medical Group Healthcare Services Education Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Ceres Marine Terminals Marine cargo handling Small Business Investment and Development Coastal Home Care Medical care Taxes CoastalRail, Center for Developmental Services Employment Services Transportation: Roads, Water, Air Utilities Effingham County Hospital Authority Hospital Other The Landings Club Private Membership Club Workforce Development Employees 1,000-4,999 1,000-4,999 1,000-4,999 1,000-4,999 1,000-4,999 1,000-4,999 500-999 500-999 500-999 500-999 500-999 500-999 500-999 500-999 500-999 500-999 500-999 500-999 250-499 250-499 NOTE: ABOUT THE Education DATA / Government / Public Service Savannah-Chatham County Board of Education Public schools 5,000-9,999 This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center Ft. Stewart/Hunter Army Airfield Civilian personnel on bases 1,000-4,999 (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. of Savannah 1,000-4,999 Areas of concentrated City research include regional economic forecasting, Government economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's Savannah College of Art & Design Education 1,000-4,999 activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with Chathamorganizations. County Government 1,000-4,999 public, private, and community Georgia Ports Authority Ship terminal operations 500-999 Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is University 500-999 produced. Most data inArmstrong this year’sAtlantic report State are annual figures for 2012, theEducation latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This data may not accuratelyYMCA reflectofthe economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center Coastal Georgia Civic association 500-999 for Regional Analysis and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for Savannah State University Education 500-999 omissions or inaccuracies. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Civil engineering 500-999 Source: DepartmentArea of Labor retrieved 12/2013 This report is published byGeorgia the Savannah Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 17 1 39 Contents Industry: Major Manufacturers ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah The Savannah MSA’s manufacturing firms created approximately 17.4% of the area’s economic output as measured by GDP, Savannah Quick Facts accounting for $2.4 billion of output in 2012. The number of manufacturing establishments in the Savannah CMSA was 245 firms employing Featured Speakers15,248 workers in 2012. 2012 Forecasts: United States and Georgia Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Savannah MSA Manufacturers, Savannah / Ft. Stewart / Hinesville CMSA Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State UniversityCounty Corporation Product Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation1 Jet aircraft, aerospace equipment Economic Trends: Savannah Georgia-Pacific Corporation/Fort Howard Group Paper products Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Economy International Paper2 Paper products Gross Regional Product Savannah Morning News Newspaper publishing Demographics Chemtall Inc. Chemicals Employment Population JCB Inc. Construction equipment Household Income Mitsubishi Power Systems Turbines Industry Imperial Sugar Refined sugar Construction Health Care Efacec Power Transformers Transformers Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Weyerhaeuser Bleached pulp Military Interstate Paper LLC Paper products Real Estate TourismUSA Brasseler Dental instruments Infrastructure Derst Baking Co. Baked goods Education Atlantic Industries Pressure-treated wood products Port ofWood Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Small Chemical Business Investment Arizona Company and Development Chemicals Taxes International Greetings USA Gift wrap, bags, bows Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air EMD Chemicals Chemicals Utilities Other Firth Rixson Forgings Aerospace engine components Workforce Development Oracal USA Inc Tape and print materials Intercat NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA Catalytic additives CH EF CH CH LI CH CH CH EF CH LI CH CH CH CH LI CH LI BR CH Employees 5,000-9,999 1,000-4,999 500-999 500-999 500-999 500-999 250-499 250-499 250-499 250-499 250-499 250-499 250-499 250-499 100-249 100-249 100-249 100-249 100-249 100-249 Source: Georgia Department of Labor, retrieved 12/2013 1. Employment Savannah andbyBrunswick This report was in updated the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center 2. Includes Savannah Mill and Savannah Mill Container Division (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with public, private, and community organizations. Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for omissions or inaccuracies. This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 40 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 18 1 Contents Industry: Military ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah Ft. Stewart, located just outside of the Savannah MSA, and Hunter Army Airfield generate sufficient economic activity to Savannah Quick Facts warrant inclusion of Liberty and Long counties in the larger Savannah CMSA. Ft. Stewart and Hunter AAF have an annual financialSpeakers impact of $5.6 billion. Fort Stewart is the largest military installation east of the Mississippi River and covers nearly Featured 285,000 acres. 2012 Forecasts: United States and Georgia Ft. Stewart and Hunter AAF University together are one of Coastal Georgia’s largest employers. The ratio of military to civilian Terry College of Business, of Georgia employeesMSA is approximately five to one, with 24,235 officers and enlisted military and 4,637 civilians employed at both Savannah installations. Ft.Regional Stewart Analysis, accounts Department for nearly three-fourths of the military employment the area. Center for of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic Statein University Economic Pressure toTrends: reduceSavannah federal and defense budgets lead to a modest reduction in civilian employment in 2012. Withdrawal of Compiled by theAfghanistan Center for Regional at Armstrong Atlantic State University combat units from and withAnalysis no scheduled deployments, the 3rd Infantry Division is scheduled to remain in the Economy area throughout 2014 except for training exercises and unscheduled contingency operations. Gross Regional Product Demographics Employment 2013 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Population Military 22,422 22,841 22,950 24,300 25,000 26,212 24,465 24,600 29,483 27,314 24,235 Household Income Civilian 3,485 3,212 3,218 3,200 3,942 4,285 5,109 4,700 4,974 4,743 4,637 Industry TotalConstruction 25,907 26,053 26,168 27,500 28,942 30,497 29,574 29,300 34,457 32,057 28,872 Source: Fort Stewart Health Care Public Affairs Office, “Fort Stewart/Hunter AAF Command Data Summary”, Sept. 2012 Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Military Real Estate Tourism Infrastructure Education Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Small Business Investment and Development Taxes Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air Utilities Other Workforce Development NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Source: Stewart Public Affairs Office, “Fort Stewart/Hunter AAF forecasting, Command Data Summary”,impact Sept. 2012 Areas of Fort concentrated research include regional economic economic analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with Ft. Stewart Hunter Army Airfield Payroll ($ in millions) public, private, /and community organizations. 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 DataMilitary for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is produced. Most data year’s report figures1,014.6 for 2012, the latest year available,1,301.4 and some1,325.6 may end at1247.5 2011 or earlier. This 863 in this845 875.1are annual 753.6 1,273.2 1,187.4 (after tax) data Civilian may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis and the Savannah information available,203.1 they cannot be held liable for 71.4Chamber 110 have made 140.5every attempt 119 to provide 145.4 the most 166.9reliable197.2 213.9 117.5 (gross) omissions or inaccuracies. Total 934.4 955 1,015.6 872.6 1,160.0 1,440.1 1,384.6 1,515.3 1,528.7 1365.0 Source: Fort Stewart Public Affairs Office, “Fort Stewart/Hunter AAF Command Data Summary”, Sept. 2012 This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 19 1 41 Contents Industry: Real Estate ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Office and Industrial Markets Welcome to Savannah Savannah Quick Facts Metro Savannah’s office market activity remains constrained by modest employment growth through much of 2013. Of nonowner Speakers occupied office space 5,000 square feet or larger, the office space inventory in Metro Savannah surpassed 3.3 million Featured square feet in the second quarter of 2013. The market occupancy rate fell slightly between the second quarter of 2012 and the 2012 Forecasts: second quarter 2013 to 79%, down from 80.1%. The vacancy rate in the Bryan County was the highest amongst subUnited States and of Georgia markets, standingofatBusiness, 33.0%. The lowest vacancy rate recorded was in the Islands sub-market, at 11.0%. Terry College University of Georgia Savannah MSA Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Economic Trends: Savannah Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Economy Gross Regional Product Demographics Employment Population Household Income Industry Construction Health Care Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Military Real Estate Tourism Source: Gilbert & Ezelle Commercial Real Estate, Cushman & Wakefield Marketbeat Report, Q2 2013, retrieved 12/2013 Infrastructure Education Savannah MSA Office Market 2013: 2nd Quarter Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Total Square Feet Reported 3,301,707 Small Business Investment and Development Vacant Space (sq. ft.) Reported 726,336 Taxes Vacancy Rate 21.0% Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air Utilities Other Gross Rental Rate 1 (per sq. ft.) by Market Workforce Development Savannah MSA $18.64 Islands CBD/Downtown $19.57 $19.55 NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA Southside Effingham County $19.04 $17.75 Bryan County Westside $18.66 $17.25 This report was updated by the Center for Regional AnalysisReport, at Q2Armstrong Source: Gilbert & Ezelle CRE, Cushman & Wakefield Marketbeat 2013, retrievedAtlantic 12/2013 State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the weighted appliedaverage research Savannah's business and community organizations. (1) Gross Rental Rate refers to the overall for all needs property of classes Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's Industrial Market activities are intended appeal toand a broad range of constituencies, and the modest Center stands to enter into cooperative partnerships Metro Savannah’stoindustrial warehousing market experienced growthready in 2013. Continued economic recovery with in public, private, and community organizations. the region has increased demand, driving the overall vacancy rate down to 11.5% from highs of nearly 20% in 2009 and 2010. By the second quarter of 2013, new inventory of 200,000 square feet was completed. Additionally, 460,000 square feet of new Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is inventory wasdata under construction in 2013. produced. Most in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis Savannah Industrial and the Savannah Chamber have made every Market attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for Total Inventory 45,877,274 Sq. Ft. omissions or inaccuracies. New Construction Added to Inventory 200,000 Sq. Ft. Total Inventory Available for Sale/Lease 5,275,887 Sq. Ft This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia Overall Vacancy Rate 11.5 % that contributed to the 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations Source: Gilbert & Ezelle CRE,update. CushmanThis & Wakefield Report, Q2 2013, retrieved information and analysis provided in this annual editionMarketbeat was published January 2014. 12/2013 Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 42 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 20 1 Contents Real Estate ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Residential Welcome to Savannah Savannah Quick Facts Total qualified home sales have plateaued between 2010 and 2013 (through mid-December) because of limited growth in the largest submarket, Featured Speakers homes that sold between $100,000 and $199,999. In 2012, a total of 2,605 homes sold as compared to 2,134 in 2011. For 2013 (through mid-December), 2,590 homes sold. The average qualified home sale price in Chatham 2012 Forecasts: County was $226,332 in 2012 and $226,103 in 2013, a decrease of about 0.1%. United States and Georgia Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Savannah MSA Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Economic Trends: Savannah Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Economy Gross Regional Product Demographics Employment Population Household Income Industry Construction Health Care Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Military Real Estate Tourism Infrastructure Education Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Small Business Investment Development Source: Chatham County Board and of Assessors. Only qualified sales were utilized. Retrieved 12/2013 Taxes Transportation: Rail, Water, Air Savannah continuesRoads, in a favorable position with respect to home prices among comparable metropolitan areas and among Utilitiesas well. Savannah ranks in the least expensive one-third of average housing prices in the nation (656 of 1,997) port cities Other according to the markets tracked in the Coldwell Banker “Home Listing Report.” Within Georgia, Savannah ranks above Workforce average, being Development in the most expensive one-fifth (#39) of the 55 markets tracked in Georgia. NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA Home Price Comparisons, 2013 Metropolitan Port Cities This report was updated by theAreas Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center Denver, CO $390,436 San Francisco, $1,309,559 (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs ofCA Savannah's business and community organizations. Raleigh, NC $255,860 Seattle WA $655,079 development and business Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic Tallahassee, FL $233,676 $494,864 expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialtyBoston, reportsMA on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's FL stands ready to enter $302,947 activities are intended toAtlanta, appealGA to a broad range of$217,226 constituencies, andMiami, the Center into cooperative partnerships with Charlotte, NC $211,693 Virginia Beach, VA $283,039 public, private, and community organizations. Savannah, GA $203,404 Charleston, SC $276,060 FL public sources $203,313 FL Data for this report areGainesville, collected from and generally Tampa, lag anywhere from one to two$232,748 years behind the date the report is $195,435 Savannah, GA available, and some $203,404 produced. Most data inNashville, this year’sTNreport are annual figures for 2012, the latest year may end at 2011 or earlier. This $189,287 IL $197,466 data may not accuratelyLouisville, reflect theKY economic challenges that businessesChicago, and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis Columbus, $152,068 FL information available, $171,368 and the Savannah Chamber haveGA made every attempt to provide theJacksonville, most reliable they cannot be held liable for omissions or inaccuracies. Source: Coldwell Banker “Home Listing Report” NOTE: Comparable subject homes are four-bedroom, two-bath properties on www.coldwellbanker.com listed between January 2013 and June 2013. Retrieved at http://hlr.coldwellbanker.com 12/2013 This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Savannah Area Trends Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 21 1 43 Contents Industry: Tourism ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah Savannah exudes a beauty and charm that few, if any, destinations can match. Savannah’s tourism and hospitality industry Savannah Quick continues to Facts be one of the largest economic drivers of Savannah. Travel to Savannah remains strong and the city enjoys visitors from all over the world. Most recently, the city was named one of “America’s Top 10 Waterfronts” by USA Today . Featured Speakers 2012 Forecasts: The Savannah United States andtourism Georgiasector continued to grow in 2012 with total overnight person-stays increasing from 6.8 million in 2011 to 7.0 million. In 2012, over 12University million visitors came to Savannah including 7.0 million overnight visitors and 5.3 million dayTerry College of Business, of Georgia trippers. The Savannah MSAdemand for rooms increased 1.8% in 2012, with visitor spending increasing 7.7% to approximately $2.1 billion. Room tax for revenue in 2012 onceDepartment again set aofrecord high. Climbing to Atlantic $17.1 million, it surpassed the previous year’s record Center Regional Analysis, Economics, Armstrong State University value of $15.5 million. Economic Trends: Savannah Impact onAtlantic Savannah/Chatham Compiled by the Center for Regional Tourism’s Analysis at Armstrong State University County Economy 2008 2009 2010 Gross Regional Product Demographics Number of Lodging Rooms (1) 13,898 14,745 14,893 Employment(Overnight) (2) Person-Stays 6.1 Million 6.1 Million 6.3 Million Population Room Night Demand (1) 2.991 Million 3.038 Million 3.240 Million Household Income Direct Spending (2) $1.9 Billion $1.6 Billion $1.7 Billion Industry Room Tax Revenue (3) $14.0 Million $12.9 Million $14.4 Million Construction Sources: 2011 15,026 6.8 Million 3.43 Million $1.95 Billion $15.5 Million 2012 14,848 7.0 Million 3.491 Million $2.1 Billion $17.1 Million Visit Savannah Health1Care Smith Travel Research – Chatham County Major Employers Major Manufacturers 2 D. K. Shiffletand and Associates, Ltd. – City of Savannah Only Military3 Longwoods International 4 Local Municipalities – Chatham County Real Estate Tourism Savannah is full of activity year-round. Although the busiest Infrastructure months in terms of visitation are April, May, and June, Education tourism activity is spread fairly evenly across the year. For Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority overnight visitors, the mix is 84% leisure travel and 16% Small Business Investment and Development Taxes and business-leisure. Over-night visitors stay business Transportation: Water, Air approximately 2.3Roads, nights Rail, in Savannah. Utilities Other Savannah excels in special interest tourism activities and WorkforcetoDevelopment continues be an exciting destination. Savannah’s distinctive qualities allow the city to stand out in the crowd. In top interest categories for overnight visitors, Savannah remains NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA far ahead of typical national levels. This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with public, private, and community organizations. Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for omissions or inaccuracies. Sources: Longwoods Travel USA 2012 Visitor Final Report, via VisitSavannah. This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 44 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 22 1 Contents Infrastructure: Education ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah The five-county CMSA employed approximately 4,050 faculty, administrators, and staff in public and private educational Savannah Quick Facts services in 2012. Public High Schools in the CMSA produced 3,540 graduates. Of the metro area’s population above age 25, approximately 87% are high school graduates or have had some college level education. Approximately 29% of the population Featured Speakers above the age of 25 has a bachelor’s degree or higher level of educational attainment. 2012 Forecasts: United States and Georgia Savannah’s educational institutions offer aofrange of programs to suit every learning need, from the family looking for one of Terry College of Business, University Georgia the state’s free Savannah MSAhigh-quality pre-kindergarten programs to the college graduate looking to pursue an advanced degree. Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Pre-K-12 Education Economic Trends: Savannah Compiled by the Center for RegionalCounty AnalysisPublic at Armstrong Enrollment in the Savannah-Chatham SchoolAtlantic SystemState roseUniversity to 37,236 in the fall of 2013, a 2.15% increase from Economy the previous year. Fifty-one publicly funded schools serve the county’s students and their families: 27 elementary Gross Regionaltwo Product schools (including charter schools), 9 middle schools (including one charter school), 7 K-8 schools, and 11 high schools. Demographics The Esther F. Garrison School of Visual and Performing Arts was awarded by the Georgia Department of Education as one of Employment Georgia’s Schools of Excellence in 2012. For more information on the Savannah-Chatham public schools, go Population to www.sccpss.com. Household Income Industry Higher Education: Colleges, Universities and Technical Schools Construction Health Care Over Major 60,000 studentsand areMajor enrolled in the 18 institutions of higher learning in and around the Savannah area. While several of Employers Manufacturers theseMilitary schools have long histories of producing graduates who have contributed to the region, others are recent newcomers, attracted the demands for advanced learning created by Savannah’s vibrant and growing economy. RealtoEstate Tourism InfrastructureAtlantic State University: Founded in 1935 as Armstrong Junior College, Armstrong in 2012 enrolled Armstrong Education 7,100 students in more than 60 undergraduate and graduate degree-granting programs. In addition to bachelor approximately Port of Savannah: Ports Authority institution offers a doctoral degree, eleven associate degrees, pre-professional and masters degrees, Georgia this SACS-accredited Small Business Investment and Development programs, and online degree programs. In 2012-2013 the university awarded 1,334 academic degrees, a 5.3% increase from Taxes the previous academic year. Departmental and faculty grants afford tremendous opportunities for student scholarships, Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air research, and part-time employment. www.armstrong.edu Utilities Other Coastal Georgia Center: A partnership of Armstrong Atlantic State University, Georgia Southern University and Savannah Workforce Development State University, the Coastal Georgia Center offers a convenient location with a professional environment in downtown Savannah for students to earn graduate degrees in business, education, public administration, and social work. The center is NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA also an outreach component of the University System of Georgia to promote economic development and serve as a venue with modern and services meetings, regionalat conferences. This report technology was updated by the for Center for seminars, Regional and Analysis Armstrong www.cgc.georgiasouthern.edu Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Georgia Tech Savannah: Initiated 1998, theeconomic 46 acre forecasting, Savannah campus created as aneconomic upper division campusand to unite Areas of concentrated research includein regional economicwas impact analysis, development business education,tourism industry, and technology in Georgia's Southeast region. reports The campus is home to the regional offices of the The Georgia expansion, development, survey-based research, and specialty on topics of state, regional and local interest. Center's activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships Tech Enterprise Innovation Institute, the Savannah Advanced Technology Development Center, and the Georgia Logisticswith public, private,and andResearch community Center. organizations. Innovation New offerings at the campus are likely to include professional master’s degrees, co- curricular undergraduate activities, instruction for the military, and executive and other non-credit education programs. Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is www.gtsav.gatech.edu produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This data may The not accurately reflect economic challenges businesses and residents face Design currently.is While the Center for Regional Analysis SCAD: University for the Creative Careers : Thethat Savannah College of Art and a private, nonprofit, accredited and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for institution conferring bachelor’s and master’s degrees at distinctive locations and online to prepare talented students for omissions or inaccuracies. professional careers. SCAD offers degrees in more than 40 areas of study, as well as minors in more than 60 disciplines in Savannah Atlanta, in Hong in Lacoste, France; through SCADP.O. eLearning. SCAD has more This report isand published byGeorgia; the Savannah AreaKong; Chamber of Commerce, 101and Eastonline Bay Street (31401), Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia than 25,000 alumni, and offers an exceptional education and unparalleled career preparation. The diverse student body, 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the consistingand of more thanprovided 11,000instudents, comes from alledition 50 states over 100 countries information analysis this annual update. This was and published January 2014. worldwide. Each student is nurtured and motivated by a faculty of nearly 700 professors with extraordinary academic credentials and valuable professional Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce Savannah Area Trends Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic 2014 Economic Trends 23 1 45 Contents experience. These professors emphasize learning through individual attention in an inspiring university environment. SCAD’s innovative curriculum is enhanced by advanced, professional-level technology and learning resources and has garnered ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) acclaim from respected organizations and publications, including 3D World, American Institute of Architects, BusinessWeek, Welcome to Savannah Design Quick Intelligence, Savannah Facts U.S. News & World Report and the Los Angeles Times. For more information, visit www.scad.edu Featured Speakers Savannah State University: Founded in 1890, Savannah State is one of the University System of Georgia’s longest-standing 2012 Forecasts: institutions oldest historically black university. Enrollment rose to approximately 4,772 students in fall 2012; an 4.1% United Statesand anditsGeorgia increase. Three colleges administer 25 undergraduate Terry College of Business, University of Georgia and 5 graduate degree programs with a newly added school of Teacher Savannah EducationMSA as of 2012. The university awards dual degrees in engineering specialties with the Georgia Institute of Technology. Center for Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong State grants University Accredited by Regional SACS, the university and its research programs regularly Atlantic attract major from federal agencies and private institutions. www.savannahstate.edu Economic Trends: Savannah CompiledTechnical by the Center for Regional Analysis at Atlantic State University Savannah College: An institution of Armstrong the Technical College System of Georgia, Savannah Technical College for Economy more than 75 years has been the leading provider of top quality technical and adult education in the greater Savannah region. Gross Regional Product In 2013 STC opened their new aviation training center to train students on aircraft assembly and maintenance and is in the Demographics process of gaining FAA approval to certify airframe and powerplant mechanics. Enrollment at Savannah Tech was over 5,000 Employment students in 2013. Savannah tech offers students more than 70 certificate, diploma and associate degree programs in a Population diverse array of industries and fields that keep the regional economy running: from automotive and air conditioning to surgical Household Income technologies, computer information systems to culinary arts, marketing to cosmetology. www.savannahtech.edu Industry Construction Saint LeoCare University: Saint Leo’s Savannah Center opened on Stephenson Avenue in 1998 after moving the university’s Health educational centers and fromMajor Ft. Stewart and Hunter Army Air Field. Saint Leo has been named one of the best regional colleges Major Employers Manufacturers Military in the South, according to U.S. News & World Report. The Savannah Center campus offers undergraduate degrees in Real Estate business administration, criminal justice, computer information systems, religion, human resources management and other Tourism areas of study. Graduate degree programs are available in criminal justice, theology and business administration. Infrastructure www.saintleo.edu Education Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority South University: South University’s Savannah campus dates back to 1899, when Dr. John Draughon established Small Business Investment and Development Draughon’s Practical Business College in Savannah. Now a four-year institution accredited by SACS, it offers associate’s, Taxes bachelor’s and masters programs Transportation: Roads,degree Rail, Water, Air through campuses in Savannah and Atlanta, GA; Tampa and West Palm Beach, FL; Montgomery, Utilities AL, and several other locations, as well as online degree programs. www.southuniversity.edu Other Workforce Development University of Phoenix: The Savannah campus offers bachelor’s degrees several areas such as arts and sciences, business and management, criminal justice and security, education, human services, nursing and healthcare, psychology, and NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA technology. Masters and Doctoral degrees are also available in many of their fields. Many of its programs are online as well as on campus. www.phoenix.edu This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact and business Several additional institutions of higher learning have opened advanced degree and analysis, certificateeconomic programsdevelopment in metro Savannah: expansion, development, research, andinspecialty reportsofontechnical topics of operations, state, regional and local interest. The Center's tourism Embry-Riddle offerssurvey-based undergraduate degrees management aircraft maintenance, aviation activities aremaintenance intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with management and professional aeronautics and a master’s degree in aeronautical science at its public, private, and community organizations. Savannah Center at Hunter Army Airfield. www.erau.edu Strayer University campus in Savannah opened on November 19, 2008, and provides undergraduate and graduate Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is degree programs in high-demand fields: accounting, business, criminal justice, education, general studies, health produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This services administration, information systems and public administration. www.strayer.edu/savannah data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis Troy University offers taughtto online undergraduate degree they in criminal andfor and the Savannah Chamber have madeclasses every attempt provide towards the most an reliable information available, cannot bejustice, held liable concentrations that include general business, general management, political science, and education. www.troy.edu omissions or inaccuracies. Webster University has campuses that opened at Hunter Army Airfield in 2002 and Ft. Stewart in 2003. Webster private, nonprofit, accredited university, international presence. It provides graduate This report isUniversity publishedisbya the Savannah Area regionally Chamber of Commerce, 101 Eastwith Bay an Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia programs military personnel. 31402-1628,degree 912.644.6400. Theto Chamber would like www.webster.edu to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information analysis provided in this annual training update. This edition was published January culinary 2014. arts. www.vc.edu and Virginia College offers students in business, health and medical, Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 46 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 24 1 Contents Infrastructure: Port of Savannah / Georgia Ports Authority ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome Savannah ports and inland barge terminals support more than 352,000 jobs throughout the state annually and Georgia’sto deepwater Savannah contributeQuick $18.5Facts billion in income, $66.9 billion in sales and $2.5 billion in state and local taxes to Georgia’s economy. (Selig Center, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia) Featured Speakers 2012Port Forecasts: The of Savannah United and Georgia The PortStates of Savannah is the fourth largest and fastest growing container port in the United States. In FY2013, it handled more Terry College of Business, of Georgia than 2.9 million TEUs (Twenty University Foot Equivalent Units) in throughput. FY2013 held the 2nd highest volume in the Port of Savannah MSA Savannah’s history. Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University The Port of Savannah moved 7.6% of the U.S. containerized loaded cargo volume and more than 17% of the East Coast Economic Trends: Savannah container trade. The port handled 10% of all U.S. containerized exports in FY2013, a total of 1.2 million loaded TEUs. The port Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University serves approximately 21,000 companies in all 50 states, more than 75% of which are headquartered outside of Georgia. Economy Gross Regional Product Demographics Employment Population Household Income Industry Construction Health Care Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Military Real Estate Tourism Infrastructure Education Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Small Business Investment and Development Taxes Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air The Port of Savannah offers its customers many advantages: Utilities • The most global services among U.S. Southeast & Gulf ports; Other •Workforce Asian Development transit times as low as 22 days and 11-day express service to and from Europe; • GPA is owner & operator of the largest single-terminal container facility (Garden City) in the U.S. which also features theDATA longest contiguous dock in the U.S. – 9,693 feet; NOTE: ABOUT THE • Largest Southeast refrigerated container export terminal; One-of-a-kind infrastructure facilities located a single terminal; The Center This •report was updated by the featuring Center two for intermodal Regional container Analysis transfer at Armstrong Atlantic onState University. served by CSX Transportation & Norfolk Southern Railroad; (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Inspection offices for U.S. Customs Border Protection andeconomic Dept. of impact Agriculture are on-terminal; and Areas •of concentrated research include regional& economic forecasting, analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's • Immediate access to two major interstate highways – I-95 (North/South) and I-16 (East/West); activities intended to appeal toofa retail broad import range of constituencies, and(DCs) the Center ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with • are Largest concentration distribution centers alongstands the East Coast; public,•private, and community organizations. Client Relations Center – one-stop customer solutions group for all port users. The Georgia Ports Authority operates two deepwater terminals in Savannah – Garden City and Ocean Terminal: Data for this are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is Garden Cityreport Terminal: produced. Most data this year’s report annual figures for 2012, the latest year available,container and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This • A 500-footinchannel width andare a secured, dedicated 1,200-acre single-terminal facility data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis • Nearly 1.2 million square feet of covered storage, including 68,150 square feet of cold storage and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for Ocean Terminal: omissions or inaccuracies. • A 200.4 -acre general cargo terminal features 9 berths totaling 5,768 linear feet • Handles RoRo, containers, heavy-lift and project cargo This report is published by breakbulk, the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia • Over 1.4 million square feet of covered storage 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the For More and Information contact inthethisGeorgia www.gaports.com. 912.964.3855 information analysis provided annual Ports update.Authority, This edition was published January 2014. / 800.342.8012 Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Savannah Area Trends Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 25 1 47 Contents Infrastructure: Small Business Investment & Development ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah Savannah’s thriving small business community accounts for a substantial share of total private employment in the SavannahSavannah Quick Facts Hinesville-Fort Stewart CMSA. The Georgia Department of Labor reported a total of 4,568 establishments employing between 5 and 500 employees in 2013. An additional 5,592 firms employed less than 5 employees. Firms with less than 500 employees Featured Speakers are responsible for the employment of 128,812 people, or approximately 77% of the workforce. The remaining 25 firms with 2012 Forecasts: more States than 500 United andemployees Georgia provided employment for 38,942 people, or approximately 23% the workforce. Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Savannah MSA Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Economic Trends: Savannah Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Economy Gross Regional Product Demographics Employment Population Household Income Industry Construction Health Care Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Military Real Estate Tourism Infrastructure Source: Georgia Department of Labor, Georgia Labor Market Explorer, Area Labor Profile, Accessed 11/2013. Education Several and local agencies to strengthen the viability of small businesses, providing assistance that may range from Port ofstate Savannah: Georgia Portswork Authority freeSmall consulting to training, networking to loans, and other essential small business tools. They promote Savannah’s healthy Business Investment and Development small business climate, their doors always open to assist the region’s innovators and entrepreneurs. Taxes Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air Utilities of Georgia Small Business Development Center: The Savannah SBDC office provides low-cost training and University Other free consulting services in business plan development, market analysis and marketing strategies, financial analysis, Workforceand Development compliance legal issues. Its businesses consultants help prepare loan submissions for individuals who are starting or expanding their business. www.sbdc.uga.edu NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA Small Business Assistance Corporation: SBAC is a nonprofit business development organization licensed by the U.S. ThisSmall report was updated by the for by Regional at Armstrong State ofUniversity. The Urban Center Business Administration andCenter supported the CityAnalysis of Savannah and U.S.Atlantic Department Housing and (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Development to promote economic growth by offering a number of loan programs for new and existing businesses. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business www.sbacsav.com expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with Savannah Development and Renewal Authority: SDRA provides planning and other support to help renew, revitalize and public, private, and community organizations. beautify distressed areas in the city and works with local government and private businesses to strengthen downtown’s economic environment. www.sdra.net Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This Area Chamber ofeconomic Commerce: The Chamber’s Smalland Business Council works toWhile meetthetheCenter needs interests of dataSavannah may not accurately reflect the challenges that businesses residents face currently. forand Regional Analysis businesses and make recognized for the theirmost impact to the community with programs thesefor andsmall the Savannah Chamber have sure madethey everyare attempt to provide reliable information available, they cannotthat be bring held liable omissions or inaccuracies. businesses together with the larger Savannah community, including the SMART Lunch Series and Annual Banquet and Trade Show. www.savannahchamber.com This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, The Chamber Authority: would like to thankleads the many SavannahRetention businessesAction and organizations that contributed to the Savannah912.644.6400. Economic Development SEDA the Business Team, a collection of economic information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. development experts from state and local agencies who work with existing businesses on issues that range from management and human resource issues to training, exporting and operations. www.seda.org Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 48 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 26 1 Contents Infrastructure: Taxes ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Savannah / Georgia Tax Summary Welcome to Savannah Savannah FactsProperty Tax Real andQuick Personal Taxes on real and tangible personal property are levied by the city, county, school district, some municipalities and the state. Featured Speakers The Chatham Area Transit Authority levies a small tax in the City of Savannah and Garden City only. Georgia law requires 2012 Forecasts: that the fair market value be determined on all property to be taxed. Millage rates are applied to the assessed value, which is United States and Georgia 40% Terry of theCollege fair market value.University Owner-occupied homes are allowed a homestead exemption; Chatham County has a of Business, of Georgia homestead valuation freeze exemption. The following table shows how to calculate the taxable value (net assessed value) of Savannah MSA an owner-occupied home:Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Center for Regional $ 230,000 Fair Market Value of Residence x .40 40% Assessment Ratio Economic Trends: Savannah Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis Atlantic State University $ 92,000at Armstrong Assessed Value Economy - $ 12,000 Homestead Exemption Gross Regional Product $ 80,000 Net Assessed Value Demographics Employment 2013 Millage Rates (1) Population Other Household Income Unincorporated Municipalities City of Savannah Industry Chatham County Construction StateHealth of Georgia 0.200 State of Georgia 0.200 Bloomingdale 0.0 Care Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Public Schools 14.631 Public Schools 14.631 Garden City 0.0 Military County M&O* 11.109 City w/Transit 12.500 Pooler 4.635 RealService Estate District** Special 4.397 3.590 County M&O 11.109 Port Wentworth Tourism & Transit 0.859 Infrastructure 6.496 Chatham Transit 0.859 Thunderbolt *see tables Add Education Other Municipality on right 4.186 Tybee Island Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Small Business Investment and Development Total 39.299 Total 30.389 Vernonburg 0.0 Taxes (1) From the Georgia Department of Revenue, Local Government Services Division, 2013 Georgia County Ad Valorem Tax Digest Millage Rates. https://etax.dor.ga.gov/PTD/cds/csheets/LGS_Georgia_County_Ad_Valorem_Tax_Digest_Millage_Rates_by_Taxing_Jurisdiction_PTSR006OD_2013.pdf Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air If you live in one of the municipalities listed in the table above, use the Unincorporated Chatham County tax rates, subtract the Special Service District rate of 3.59 and add Utilities the municipality’s rate into your calculations. Add the Transit rate of 0.859 if the area is served by CAT. Other *Sales tax rollback of 0.971 is deducted from M&O, insurance premium rollback of 0.795 is deducted from SSD.(Net rates are reported in this table). Workforce Development Continuing with our example above, a $230,000 home with a homestead exemption would have a net assessed value of NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA Chatham County (not in a municipality), this home would have a 2013 property tax of $80,000 x $80,000. In unincorporated .030439, which is $2,431.12. The same home located in the City of Savannah would have property taxes of $3,143.92. This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. The City of Savannah provides services such as trash removal and recycling, water and sewer, and fire protection to city Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact analysis, economic development and business residents, tourism while county residents pay for these services Chatham County residential property owners benefit expansion, development, survey-based research, andseparately. specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The from Center's a homestead valuation freeze exemption, which effectively raises the homestead exemption the same amount that thewith activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships property appreciates. Thereorganizations. is no increase in residential property taxes until the sale of the property, at which point a new public, private, and community basis is established. Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is Some findMost it useful compare property taxes the using an year Effective Tax Rate per $1,000 of atfair2011 market value.This produced. data into this year’s real reportand arepersonal annual figures for 2012, latest available, and some may end or earlier. data maythis not accurately the economic businesses facevalue, currently. While the case Centerisfor Regional then Analysis To find rate, dividereflect the property tax onchallenges the homethat listed above byand itsresidents fair market which in this $230,000, and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most information available, they cannot held liable multiply the answer by $1,000. Unincorporated Chatham County has reliable an Effective Tax Rate of $10.15, whilebethe City of for omissions or inaccuracies. Savannah has an Effective Tax Rate of $13.12 per $1,000 of fair market value. This reportmaintains is published the Savannah Commerce, government, 101 East Bay aStreet (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia Georgia its by modest tax ratesArea via aChamber fiscally of conservative constitutionally mandated balanced budget 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the and a pro-business climate. The state’s maximum corporate income tax rate, 6%, has not changed since 1969. information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce Savannah Area Trends Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic 2014 Economic Trends 27 1 49 Contents Sales Tax: 7% on the dollar on purchases of all goods and utilities (4% state + 2% local option + 1% Education Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax). Food items are exempt from state sales tax. Sales tax on food items is 3% (2% local option ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) + 1% Education Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax). Welcome to Savannah Savannah Quick Facts Sales Tax Exemptions: Apply to manufacturing machinery used directly in making products for sale, machinery and equipment used for pollution control, raw materials that will become a component of a finished product, packaging materials, Featured Speakers certain computer equipment, and standard software. A full listing of sales and use tax exemptions in Georgia can be found at: 2012 Forecasts: http://www.georgia.org/competitive-advantages/tax-exemptions/sales-tax-and-use-tax-exemptions/ United States and Georgia Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Savannah MSARoom Tax: 6%, with the total tax for rooms 13% (7% sales tax plus 6% room tax). Hotel/Motel Center for Regional Analysis, Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Personal Income Tax: State of Georgia Economic Single: Trends: Savannah$230 on first $7,000 plus 6% of income over that Compiled by the Center for$340 Regional Analysis at Armstrong State Married: on first $10,000 plus 6% ofAtlantic income overUniversity that Economy Married filing separately: $170 on first $5,000 plus 6% of income over that Gross Regional Product Demographics State Taxes: Georgia does not have a unitary tax. Businesses are taxed only on income apportioned to Georgia. Employment Population Corporate Income Household IncomeTax: Applies ONLY to income earned in Georgia. The tax calculation is based entirely on gross receipts earned in Georgia, the first southeastern state to adopt the Single Factor Gross Receipts formula. Industry Construction Health Care Corporate Net Worth Tax: Also known in Georgia as a license or occupation tax, it is an annual tax based on net worth Majorstock Employers and Majorearnings). Manufacturers (capital plus retained The tax is determined on a graduated scale with a minimum of $10 for a net worth less Military than $10,001 and a maximum of $5,000 for a net worth in excess of $22 million. Domestic corporations are taxed on 100% of Estate netReal worth; those out of state only on net worth apportioned to Georgia. Most states refer to the tax on net worth either as a Tourism franchise or a privilege tax. Infrastructure Education Unemployment Insurance: Georgia’s unemployment insurance for newly liable employers averages 2.7% of each Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority employee’s first $9,500 in earnings, with a maximum weekly benefit of $330. After an employment record is established in Small Business Investment and Development Georgia Taxes(36 months, a new rate based on employee separations is developed. Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air Worker’s Utilities Compensation: Georgia law requires employers to insure their workers against job connected accidents. This insurance is carried with private companies unless the employer self-insures. Self-insured employers must provide proof of Other financial ability to the State Workers’ Compensation Board, which may require posting of a bond. Private insurance companies Workforce Development return about 2% of the premiums received from employers to the board to cover its operating costs, and self-insured NOTE: ABOUT THE employers pay theDATA board a fee (about 2% of estimated premiums) to cover these costs. A company is eligible for a 7.5% reduction in rates if it operates as a certified drug-free workplace. This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Business and Occupation Tax: Areas of concentrated research include economic economic impact economic or development Every for-profit business in the Cityregional of Savannah andforecasting, Chatham County must payanalysis, a local business occupationand tax business based expansion, tourism development, survey-based research,Profitability and specialty reportsrange on topics state,per regional andforlocal interest. Center's upon gross receipts or profitability classification. classes fromof$0.47 $1,000 Class A to The $0.97 per activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships $1,000 for Class F. City of Savannah’s minimum tax is $85 per year. Maximum is $21,674 for a business with gross receipts with in public, private, and community organizations. excess of $50 million. A City tax table determines the exact tax amount. The County tax table reflects a $82 minimum and a $9,775 maximum. Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This Sources: Savannah Economic Development Authority, Georgia Department of Labor, Georgia Department of Revenue. Revised 10/13. data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for omissions or inaccuracies. This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 50 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 28 1 Contents Infrastructure: Transportation – Roads, Rail, Water and Air ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah CAT Local Transit Service Expedites Travel Savannah Quick Facts The Chatham Area Transit Authority provides transportation services to more than 3.3 million passengers annually. Per the system’sSpeakers “2013-2018 Transportation Development Plan,” CAT operates 21 fixed bus routes, logging 573 hours on weekdays, Featured 479 hours on Saturdays, and 199 hours on Sundays. CAT buses log almost 187,000 hours and travel over 2.2 million miles 2012 Forecasts: annually. United States and Georgia Terry College of Business, University of Georgia The one-way Savannah MSAfare on CAT’s fixed routes is $1.50, while transfers are free. A weekly CAT card is $16, and a monthly CAT card is $60. Seniors (over 65)Analysis, and disabled riders of areEconomics, charged half-fare. A fare-free daily University CAT Shuttle serves downtown and the Center for Regional Department Armstrong Atlantic State Historic District, connecting to many CAT bus routes and the Savannah Belles Ferry service. The fare-free Liberty Parking Economic Trends: Savannah Shuttle moves riders downtown from the garage in a loop. More information is available at www.catchacat.org, or contact the Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Chatham Area Transit Authority at 912-233-5767 Economy Regional Product Bus Gross Service to Destinations throughout North America Demographics Savannah has a station on Greyhound Lines, Inc. whose bus routes link riders to more than 3,800 destinations across the Employment United States, Canada and Mexico. Greyhound provides scheduled passenger service, charter bus service, package express Population delivery and food service at certain terminals. Greyhound has over 25 daily arrivals and departures out of the Savannah Household Income Station. For more information, contact Greyhound Bus Lines at 912-232-2135 or 1-800-231-2222 or www.greyhound.com. Industry Construction Passenger Rail to New York and Miami Health Care Amtrak’s Service and Palmetto trains offer daily service from Savannah to New York, Washington, DC, Charleston, Major Silver Employers and Major Manufacturers Jacksonville, Military Orlando, and Tampa/Miami. Silver Service trains include sleeping and dining cars. The Palmetto offers Business Estatewith more amenities. For rates and schedules call 800-USA-RAIL or go to www.amtrak.com. ClassReal Service Tourism Infrastructure Freight Service at the Port of Savannah CSXEducation Transportation and Norfolk Southern transport goods to and from the Port of Savannah. For more information contact of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority CSXPort at 877-744-7279 (www.csx.com) or Norfolk Southern Corp. at 912-963-6925 (www.nscorp.com). The Georgia Central Small Business Investment and Development Railway, a short line partner with CSX, operates tracks from Savannah to Vidalia and from Macon to Vidalia. Taxes Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air TaxiUtilities Service Savannah taxi services are readily available at the airport and most major hotels. The Savannah/Hilton Head International Other Airport posts information on the city’s taxi cab fare system at www.savannahairport.com/savannah/taxi_cab_rate_system/ Workforce Development Point to point estimates of taxi fares in Savannah may be found at http://www.taxifarefinder.com/main.php?city=Savannah-GA. NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA Water Ferrywas updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center This report The fare-free Savannah Belles Ferry system, which connected to theneeds fare-free downtown business CAT shuttle, daily service (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets theisapplied research of Savannah's and provides community organizations. Areas of concentrated research economic River. forecasting, economic impact economic development between the north and south include banks regional of the Savannah The ferry arrives and analysis, departs from the City Hall dockand on business River expansion, development, survey-based research, and specialty reports of state,Island regional andSavannah local interest. The Center's Street, thetourism Waving Girl Landing at the Savannah Marriott Riverfront, andon ontopics Hutchinson at the International activities intended toCenter appealand to aThe broad rangeSavannah of constituencies, the Center stands to enter intofrom cooperative partnerships Trade &are Convention Westin Harborand Resort and Spa everyready 15–20 minutes 7:00 a.m. until 12.00with public, private, and community organizations. am, subject to weather and river traffic conditions. Service to the Waving Girl Landing is less often. Data thisinformation, report are collected from publicBelles sources andatgenerally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is For for more contact Savannah Ferry 912-447-4029 or produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This www.catchacat.org/getting_around/Ride_Free_Downtown/Savannah_Belles_Ferry/index.html data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis and the Savannah Revised 12/2013 Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for omissions or inaccuracies. This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 29 1 51 Contents Air Transportation ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah Head International Airport Savannah/Hilton Savannah Quick Facts A 15-minute drive from Historic Downtown Savannah, the Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport is at the center of a transportation Featured Speakersand logistics infrastructure that includes a global port and access to more than 100 motor carriers, three railroads, numerous ocean-shipping lines and Foreign Trade Zone 104, which serves a growing number of customers within 2012 Forecasts: this network. Savannah’s United States and Georgia international airport provides unparalleled service to businesses looking to centralize their operations Terry College Business, University of Georgia on the East Coastofand puts them in a superior position to handle future business expansions. Savannah MSA FiveCenter airlines under Department 300 direct nonstop passenger flights Atlantic every week major U.S. cities, providing convenient for provides Regionaljust Analysis, of Economics, Armstrong StatetoUniversity travel options for Savannah’s residents and guests. Every day, passengers travel to destinations worldwide through these connecting hub cities. Economic Trends: Savannah Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Economy Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport Affected by Recession: Passenger and Cargo Activity Gross Regional Product Year-end Totals 2011 - 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Demographics Change Employment Passengers Population -0.0% (enplanements/deplanements) 1,969,965 1,650,383 1,653,302 1,612,439 1,612,000 Household Income Cargo Industry -9.6% Freight/Express/Mail, tons 9,019.6 7,133.5 8,177.2 8,400.5 7,595.1 Construction Health Care Aircraft Operations 94,306 95,206 99,787 98,806 90,326 -8.6% Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Source: Savannah Airport Commission, www.savannahairport.com 12/2013 Military Real Estate Despite the declines from 2011 to 2012, data for the first ten months of 2013 indicate that the total passenger count will Tourism increase by approximately 2% on a year-to-date basis as compared to 2012. Monthly passenger counts in 2013 were higher Infrastructure thanEducation in any corresponding month in 2012 except for March. Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Through November 2012, Delta Lines holds 51.1% of the market share at the airport. US Airways is second with 26.5%, Small Business Investment and Air Development followed by United Express (16.56%), and American Eagle (5.7%). JetBlue is scheduled to begin serving two daily nonstop Taxes flights to New YorkRoads, (JFK)Rail, and Water, one daily Transportation: Air nonstop flight to Boston in February 2014. Utilities Other Airline Flight Schedules Workforce Development Airline NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA American Eagle Number Daily Nonstop Flights Destination 1-800-433-7300 3 Dallas/Fort Worth 9 Atlanta This reportDelta was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State New University. The Center Air Lines 1-800-221-1212 3 York - LaGuardia (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of 1Savannah's business andDetroit community organizations. Areas of concentrated research include regional economic forecasting, economic impact and business New York – JFK 2 analysis, economic development jetBlue* 1-800-538-2583 expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics local interest. The Center's 1 of state, regional and Boston activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands partnerships 3 ready to enter into cooperative Washington DC - Dulleswith public, private, and community organizations. 3 Chicago - O’Hare United 1-800-864-8331 1 Houston Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from the date the report is 2 one to two years behind Newark produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This 9 Charlotte data may not US accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Airways 1-800-428-4322 2 Daily, 3 Saturday, 3 Sunday Washington ReaganAnalysis and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be Philadelphia held liable for 1 Daily, 3 Saturday, 1 Sunday omissions or inaccuracies. Source: Savannah Airport Commission at www.savannahairport.com, retrieved 12/2013 *jetBlue service starts February 13, 2014 This report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 52 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 30 1 Contents Infrastructure: Utilities ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah Water and Sanitary Sewer Services Savannah Quick Facts The CitySpeakers of Savannah’s Public Works & Water Resources Bureau provides potable water and wastewater treatment for Featured businesses and residents within the city and much of Chatham County. It operates a surface water potable water treatment 2012 Forecasts: plant, onlyand oneGeorgia in Coastal Georgia, with the capacity to meet anticipated development needs in the Savannah metropolitan Unitedthe States area Terry for the foreseeable future.University The Industrial and Domestic Water Treatment Plant offers 72 MGD maximum capacity. In College of Business, of Georgia addition, bureau operates six independent groundwater systems with 52 deep wells. The bureau supplies both domestic Savannahthe MSA and fire demands and maintains 950 miles water distribution main, over State 5,500University fire hydrants, over 18,000 valves, and Center for Regional Analysis,over Department of of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic supplies over 78,700 individual water service connections. Through intergovernmental agreements, the bureau also supplies Economic Trends: Savannahin Chatham County and portions of Bryan and Effingham counties. water to other municipalities Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Economy Sanitary sewer collection and treatment is provided throughout the city and portions of unincorporated Chatham County. In Grossthe Regional addition, systemProduct treats sanitary sewage for other municipalities through intergovernmental agreements. Demographics Employment The bureau’s wastewater treatment capacity, currently 37 MGD, is sufficient to meet the requirements of anticipated growth. Population The Household wastewaterIncome system includes over 730 miles of gravity sewer mains, over 120 miles of sewer force mains, 18,000 manholes, and 4 water reclamation plants. The plants include the following: Industry Construction President HealthStreet Care Water Reclamation Plant 27 Million Gallons per Day maximum capacity; Wilshire / Windsor Water Reclamation Plant 4.5 Million Gallons per Day maximum capacity; Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Georgetown 1.4 Million Gallons per Day maximum capacity; Military Water Reclamation Plant Real Estate Crossroads Water Reclamation Plant 4.5 Million Gallons per Day maximum capacity Tourism Infrastructure The President Street Plant and the Crossroads Plants treat the wastewater to re-use / reclaimed water quality. Savannah is Education one of Georgia’s largest suppliers of reclaimed water. Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authority Business Investment and Development The Small Bureau also manages the wastewater Pre-Treatment and FOG (Fats, Oils, and Grease) Programs. President Street Taxes Wastewater Treatment Plant, Savannah’s main wastewater treatment facility treats an average of 18 MGD up to 27 MGD, Transportation: Roads, Rail, Water, Air whichUtilities is enough to serve much of the city. Other The Web site for the Savannah Water & Sewer Bureaus is http://www.savannahga.gov/cityweb/wsweb.nsf Workforce Development NaturalABOUT Gas THE DATA NOTE: Georgians receive competitive pricing for natural gas service with this deregulated industry. The natural gas marketers that operate in Georgia deliver their through pipeline system operatedAtlantic by the Atlanta Gas Light Company, This report was updated by product the Center fora natural RegionalgasAnalysis at Armstrong State University. The Center which is responsible for repairing leaks and responding to other gas emergencies. The latest survey of gas pricesorganizations. for each (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community marketer is available research on the Public Service Commission’s website ateconomic http://www.psc.state.ga.us/gas/pricecard.asp. Areas of concentrated include regional economic forecasting, impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, tourism development, survey-based research, and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's activities are intended to appeal to a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with Electricity public, private, A subsidiaryand of community one of theorganizations. nation’s largest investor-owned utility systems, Southern Company, Georgia Power supplies electricity to more than 280,000 commercial, industrial and residential customers in its 15-county Coastal Region. Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally one to twoIt years the of date the report Furthermore, Georgia Power serves 2.39 million customers in 155lagof anywhere Georgia’s from 159 counties. offers behind a number services for is produced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This home or business, from energy efficiency assistance to summary and budget billing options. For more information, go to data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis www.georgiapower.com. and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for omissions or inaccuracies. Electricity is a competitive industry for certain industrial and commercial customers. Businesses with a load of 900 kW or more frequently choosebytheir in Georgia. Electric membership in the Savannah are listed at This report iscan published the electricity Savannahsupplier Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Baycorporations Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628,area Savannah, Georgia www.georgiaemc.com 31402-1628, 912.644.6400. The Chamber would like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the Revised 12/2013 information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Additional and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. Savannahresources Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends 31 1 53 Contents Workforce Development Resources ABOUT THE DATA (See Note Below) Welcome to Savannah Program and Initiatives Savannah Quick Facts Workforce development is a top priority in Savannah. Strong academics and technical skills, coupled with lifelong learning and learning within a workplace context are key for students to have a productive future. Here are a few of the programs that Featured Speakers strengthen education and training by providing apprenticeships, internships, job shadows, partnerships or character 2012 Forecasts: development. United States and Georgia Terry College of Business, University of Georgia Savannah MSA Savannah Compact Center for President Regional Analysis, Bill Hubbard, and CEODepartment of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 E. Bay Street, P.O. Box 1628 (31402-1628), Savannah, GA 31401 Economic Trends: Savannah P: (912) 644-6422; F: (912) 644-6493; [email protected]; www.savannahchamber.com Compiled by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University Population Served: Businesses, students and educators. Economy Services: Multi-year agreement between the business and education communities to improve outcomes for SCCPSS students. Gross Regional Product Demographics Junior Achievement Employment Jonathan Barrett, Vice President of Southern Georgia, 6001 Chatham Center Drive, Suite 150, Savannah, GA 31405 Population P: (912) 790-7822; Household IncomeF: (912) 790-0446; [email protected] Industry Population Served: K-12 Construction Services: Provides workplace curriculum, training for teachers and volunteers, and hands-on activities to show students the Health Care relevance of, and relationship between, what is learned in the classroom and what is required in the workplace. Major Employers and Major Manufacturers Military Youth RealApprenticeship Estate Audrey Fuller, Workforce Learning Coordinator, Savannah-Chatham County Public School System Tourism 151 Coach Joe Turner Street, Savannah, GA 31408 Infrastructure P: Education (912)-395-6769; F: (912) 201-2331; [email protected] Population Served: Students, businesses Port of Savannah: Georgia Ports Authorityand educators in Chatham County. Small Business and Development Services: ProvidesInvestment an opportunity for juniors and seniors to start preparing for a career while still in high school. Students who Taxes have competed courses related to a career work an apprenticeship. Youth Apprenticeship enables employers to play an active Water, Air workforce. roleTransportation: in shaping theRoads, qualityRail, of their future Utilities Other Learning for Life; Exploring Workforce Development Barbara Foley, 11900 Abercorn Street, Savannah, GA 31419 P: (912) 308-7892; F: (912) 920-4030; [email protected] NOTE: ABOUT THE DATA Population Served: Savannah-Chatham County Public School System K-12 students Services: Career and character education, school-business partnership development. This report was updated by the Center for Regional Analysis at Armstrong Atlantic State University. The Center (http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/index.html) meets the applied research needs of Savannah's business and community organizations. Areas of concentrated regionalInvestment economic forecasting, Coastal Workforceresearch Servicesinclude (Workforce Board) economic impact analysis, economic development and business expansion, development, survey-based and specialty reports on topics of state, regional and local interest. The Center's 601 Easttourism 66th Street, Suite 201, Savannah,research, GA 31405 activities are351-6379; intended toF:appeal a broad range of constituencies, and the Center stands ready to enter into cooperative partnerships with P: (912) (912) to 525-1564; www.coastalworkforceservices.org public, private, and community organizations. Population Served: Eligible adults and youths in Region 12 (Bryan, Bulloch, Camden, Chatham, Effingham, Glynn, Liberty, Long and McIntosh counties) under the Workforce Investment Act legislation. Data for this report are collected from public sources and generally lag anywhere from one to two years behind the date the report is Services: Develop workforce education and training strategies, create partnerships and ensure universal access through “Oneproduced. Most data in this year’s report are annual figures for 2012, the latest year available, and some may end at 2011 or earlier. This Stop” centers. Programs include Youth Programs, Dislocated Worker and On-the-Job-Training. data may not accurately reflect the economic challenges that businesses and residents face currently. While the Center for Regional Analysis and the Savannah Chamber have made every attempt to provide the most reliable information available, they cannot be held liable for omissions SCMPDor-inaccuracies. Savannah Impact Program DeLeah Blake, 14045 Abercorn St, Savannah, GA 31419 ThisP:report is published by the Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce, 101 East Bay Street (31401), P.O. Box 1628, Savannah, Georgia 912-651-4350; [email protected] 31402-1628, The and Chamber like to thank the many Savannah businesses and organizations that contributed to the Population912.644.6400. Served: “At risk” “high would risk” youth. information and analysis provided in this annual update. This edition was published January 2014. Services: Prepares school-age youth for post-secondary education and employment upon completion of high school. Additional resources and contact information are available on the Chamber’s Web site: www.savannahchamber.com. 54 Savannah Area Chamber of Commerce 2014 Economic Trends of Commerce Savannah Area Chamber 2014 Economic Trends 32 1 SavannahChamber.com VisitSavannah.com 101 East Bay Street · Savannah, GA 31401 P.O. Box 1628 31402-1628 912.644.6400 · 912.644.6499
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