Research
& Forecast Report
OHIO | MULTIFAMILY
1H 2016
Apartment Markets Positioned for Sustained Growth
U.S. Market Overview
Ohio Market Indicators
Relative to prior period
Since the end of the last recession, the U.S. apartment market
has rebounded the strongest of all commercial real estate asset
OCCUPANCY
classes, leading some to speculate that the sector is at or near
NET ABSORPTION
its cyclical peak. True, there are signs of moderation. After two
Historical Occupancy
CONSTRUCTION
years of torrid rent growth, the year-over-year increase as of May
RENTAL RATE
2016, decreased slightly to 6.0 percent, with forecasts calling for
an annual increase in the four to five percent range by the end of
* Projected, relativeCincinnati
to prior period
Cleveland
2016. This is a more sustainable pace, which should also assist
100.0%
in maintaining current levels of demand as household formation
99.0%
Historical Occupancy
98.0%
continues to increase.
1H 2016
2H 2016*
Columbus
Dayton
97.0%
While not robust in comparison to previous economic recoveries,
the current expansion is approaching its seventh anniversary
and its modest job and income growth will continue in the
near term. A little more than 300,000 units are expected to
be completed during 2016, while 400,000 units are currently
under construction and an additional 680,000 units are in the
planning phase. This elevated increase on the supply side is not
anticipated to result in oversupply as both the Millennial and Baby
Boomer demographic cohorts will remain key demand generators
for apartments.
96.0%
Historical
Occupancy - Ohio Markets
95.0%
94.0%
93.0%
100.0%
92.0%
99.0%
91.0%
98.0%
90.0%
97.0%
96.0%
95.0%
94.0%
93.0%
92.0%
91.0%
90.0%
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Columbus
Dayton
2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Occupancy levels are at near all-time highs in most markets,
Source: MPF Research
averaging 96.1 percent nationally – the highest level during the
current expansion cycle. Due to current demand levels, the risk historical average monthly rent
over-supply remains muted as a growing number of households
Historical Average Monthly Rent - Ohio Markets
choose to rent, whether by economic necessity or lifestyle choice.
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Columbus
Dayton
$900
The U.S. home ownership rate dropped 20 basis points over the
$850
past 12 months and is forecast to decrease by an additional 50
$800
to 100 bps, despite efforts to artificially increase the number of historical average monthly rent
$750
home buyers.
$700
Instead of peaking, it appears the multifamily markets are poised
for future growth. It is forecast that the current pipeline of
new supply will be easily absorbed over the next three years.
Occupancy rates will likely decrease slightly as deliveries
increase but remain at very healthy levels in most markets. Rent
growth is expected to move closer to historical averages.
$650
$900
$600
$850
$550
$800
$500
$750
$700
Cincinnati
2010
Q4
2011
Q2
2011
Q4
Cleveland
Columbus
Dayton
2012
Q2
2012
Q4
2013
Q2
2013
Q4
2014
Q2
2014
Q4
2015
Q2
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q4
2013
Q2
2013
Q4
2014
Q2
2014
Q4
2015
Q2
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
Source:
MPF Research
$650
$600
$550
$500
2010
Q4
2011
Q2
2011
Q4
Key Transactions
MERIDIAN APARTMENTS
1401 Aschinger Blvd
Columbus, OH 43212
1
Sale Date
3/1/16
Year Built
1998
Sale Price
$77,280,000
RSF
484,612
$/SF
$159.47
$/Unit
$161,000
CAP Rate
6.40%
Unit Type
Units
SF
Asking Rent
Rent/SF
Studio
27
478
$887
$1.86
1B/1B
292
751
$1,210
$1.61
2B/2B
149
1,145
$1,643
$1.43
3B/2B
12
1,273
$2,159
$1.70
480
912
$1,475
$1.62
TOTAL/AVG
> COLLIERS TAKE | Cortland Partners of Atlanta, Georgia purchased the property from The Connor Group of Dayton, Ohio. The property
was constructed in 2001 and 95% occupied prior to the transaction. The transaction was financed with a primary mortgage of $57,900,000
(75% LTV) originated by Morgan Stanley on March 1st, 2016.
VININGS OF FT. MITCHELL
(SEASONS ON CHELSEA)
1620 Corinthian Dr
Florence, KY 41042
Units
SF
Asking Rent
Rent/SF
1B/1B
40
623
$641
$1.03
$24,100,000
1B/1B
125
790
$715
$0.91
RSF
395,262
2B/1B
134
920
$785
$0.85
$/SF
$60.97
2B/2B
49
1,036
$805
$0.78
$/Unit
$65,489
3B/1.5B
20
1,724
$1,205
$0.70
TOTAL/AVG
368
1,019
$830
$0.82
Sale Date
3/17/16
Year Built
1967
Sale Price
CAP Rate
2
--
Unit Type
> COLLIERS TAKE | A joint-venture of Stonecutter Capital (New York, New York) and Providence Management (Glenview, IL) purchased
the property from Fortress Investment Group (New York, New York). The transaction was financed with a primary mortgage originated
by The Prime Group. The terms of the $26,400,000 mortgage maintained a term of 36 months and cross-collateralized with 17
other properties.
LAKES OF BRICE
6060 Rossi Drive
Canal Winchester, OH 43110
Sale Date
3/1/16
Year Built
1997
Sale Price
$20,750,000
RSF
270,772
$/SF
$76.63
$/Unit
3
CAP Rate
$81,054.69
7.15%
Unit Type
Units
SF
Asking Rent Rent/SF
1B/1B
44
780
$708
$0.91
2B/2B
152
980
$808
$0.82
2B/2.5B
40
1,260
$1,150
$0.91
3B/2.5B
20
1,600
$1,373
$0.86
TOTAL/AVG
256
1,038
$888
$0.86
> COLLIERS TAKE | Cortland Partners of Atlanta, Georgia purchased the property from The Connor Group of Dayton, Ohio. Prior to the
transaction, the property was 92% occupied with an in-place Capitalization Rate of 7.0%. The transaction was financed with a primary
mortgage of $18,819,000 (90% LTV) originated by The Branch Banking & Trust Company.
2
Ohio Research & Forecast Report | 1H 2016 | Multifamily Market Outlook | Colliers International
Key Transactions
MALLARD’S CROSSING
2415 Mallard’s Crossing Dr
Columbus, OH 43229
Sale Date
2/18/16
Year Built
1988
Sale Price
$9,500,000
RSF
160,364
$/SF
$59.24
$/Unit
4
CAP Rate
Units
SF
Asking Rent
Rent/
SF
2B/1B
188
853
$664
$0.78
TOTAL/AVG
188
853
$664
$0.78
Unit Type
$50,531.91
7.80%
> COLLIERS TAKE | Ferndale Realty Group of Highland Park, Illinois purchased the property from Donwalter LP of Columbus, Ohio. Prior
to the transaction, the property was 95% occupied with an in-place Capitalization Rate of 7.8%. The transaction was financed with a
primary mortgage of $6,700,000 (71% LTV) originated by Morgan Stanley. The primary mortgage holds a term of 120 months, fixed
interest rate of 4.7%, debt service coverage ratio of 1.76x, and becomes defeasible on April 18th, 2018.
FITZROY APARTMENTS
2162-2180 Fitzroy Drive
Columbus, OH 43224
5
Sale Date
4/20/16
Year Built
1971
Sale Price
$2,000,000
RSF
99,600
$/SF
$20.08
$/Unit
$20,833
CAP Rate
7.35%
Units
SF
Asking Rent
Rent/
SF
2B/1B
60
1,000
$450
$0.45
3B/1B
36
1,100
$500
$0.45
TOTAL/AVG
96
1,038
$469
$0.45
Unit Type
> COLLIERS TAKE | AMG of Skokie, Illinois purchased the asset from B & L Associates located in Columbus, Ohio. Colliers International
represented the Seller in the transaction which totaled $2,000,000 for 96 garden style units or $20,833 per unit resulting in a 7.35%
Capitalization Rate. All 60 two bedroom and 36 three bedroom apartments were rented at the time of the sale.
TRIUMPH TOWER
25400 Euclid Avenue
Cleveland, OH 44117
Sale Date
5/31/16
Year Built
1969
Sale Price
$4,369,999
RSF
78,211
$/SF
$55.87
$/Unit
6
CAP Rate
Units
SF
Asking Rent
Rent/
SF
1B/1B
64
624
$606
$0.97
2B/1B
62
703
$703
$1.00
TOTAL/AVG
126
663
$654
$0.99
Unit Type
$34,682.53
9.17%
> COLLIERS TAKE | Michael Dong of New York, New York purchased the property from RLI Enterprises from Lyndhurst, Ohio. Colliers
International represented the Seller in the transaction and brought multiple offers for the fully-renovated and 100% occupied property at
the time of sale. The transaction was financed with a primary mortgage of $3,327,499 (75% LTV) originated by Eaton Family Credit Union
and set to mature on June 1st, 2026.
3
Ohio Research & Forecast Report | 1H 2016 | Multifamily Market Outlook | Colliers International
Ohio Multifamily | 1H 2016 Notable Sales
PROPERTY NAME
SALE DATE
SALE PRICE
NUMBER
OF UNITS
PRICE /
UNIT
BUYER
SELLER
MARKET
Meridian Apartments
3/1/2016
$77,280,000
480
$161,000
Cortland Partners
The Connor Group
Columbus
Brookstone Village
4/1/2016
$38,600,000
276
$139,855
The Connor Group
Brookstone Apartment Properties LLC
Cincinnati
Cincinnati
3/17/2016
$24,100,000
367
$65,668
Stonecutter Capital JV Providence Management
Fortress JV Wharton Equity Prtnrs JV BH
Management Services
3/1/2016
$20,750,000
240
$86,458
Cortland Partners
The Connor Group
Columbus
Chesapeake Landing
4/15/2016
$20,565,000
256
$80,332
BH Chesapeake Indy LLC
Chesapeake Landing Apartments LLC
Dayton
Northland Village
5/16/2016
$19,090,995
500
$38,182
Knoxville Northland Developers LLC
Dayton Northland Village Apartments Ltd
Dayton
Skyview Towers
2/19/2016
$14,112,000
392
$36,000
Crawford Inv't Counsel
VTT Management
Columbus
Vinings of Fort Mitchell
Lakes of Brice
Burlington Oaks Apartments
2/3/2016
$12,750,000
240
$53,125
Four Greeksake LLC
Burlington Oaks Apartment Two LLC
Cincinnati
Skyview Townhomes
2/19/2016
$12,480,000
314
$39,745
Crawford Inv't Counsel
VTT Management
Columbus
Mallards Crossing
2/18/2016
$9,500,000
188
$50,532
Ferndale Realty Group LLC
Donwalter Limited
Columbus
Stoneridge Apartments
1/21/2016
$8,600,000
150
$57,333
Dynamic Building Corp
CNC Investments
Dayton
Stone Creek Apartments
6/1/2016
$7,650,000
132
$57,955
Premier Real Estate Mgmt LLC
Miller-Valentine Group
Dayton
Hartford on the Lake
1/15/2016
$7,470,000
360
$20,750
AMG Realty Group
JRH Properties
Columbus
Trinity Place
1/21/2016
$7,110,485
200
$35,552
Dynamic Building Corp
CNC Investments
Cincinnati
4/7/2016
$6,250,000
190
$32,895
Millenia
David E Cooper
Columbus
United Labor Towers
1/20/2016
$5,197,524
150
$34,650
RHM Manor LP
United Labor Agency Housing LP & Teamster
Retiree Apartments Youngstown Inc
Cleveland
Deercreek Village
3/15/2016
$4,600,000
100
$46,000
Lockwood Companies
Dietz Property Group
Bellefontaine
Triumph Tower
5/31/2016
$4,369,999
126
$34,683
Michael Dong
RLI Enterprises
Cleveland
6/1/2016
$4,250,000
80
$53,125
Everest Properties
Provident Realty Advisors
Columbus
Carriage House of Columbus
Village at Appian Way
Pine Village
1/26/2016
$4,275,000
110
$38,864
Millenia
Security Properties
Columbus
3000 Graham Rd
2/1/2016
$4,000,000
80
$50,000
Millenia
Security Properties
Cleveland
Morchester Villa
4/15/2016
$3,500,000
76
$46,053
Kurt Stimens Living Trust
Morchester Villa Apartments LLC
Mansfield
1474-1516 N High St
3/31/2016
$3,373,600
144
$23,428
Univest 66 LLC et al
Redstone Realty Company LLC
Columbus
Huntley Ridge
5/10/2016
$3,100,000
88
$35,227
Continental Properties
S&S Real Estate Managers
Dayton
Walnut Creek Townhomes
3/22/2016
$3,050,000
46
$66,304
2790 E Street LLC
Bethel Development
Columbus
Muirwood Village Townhomes
2/29/2016
$2,966,667
36
$82,407
Michele Properties LLC
Ricky L & Theresa A Collins
Columbus
117 Pontious Ln
2/26/2016
$2,800,000
80
$35,000
Michele Properties LLC
Ricky L & Theresa A Collins
Columbus
Dover Place
1/21/2016
$2,675,000
104
$25,721
Aspen Management
Richard D Cole
Dayton
Green Arbor
2/1/2016
$2,640,000
104
$25,385
R. Investments
Martin Coffman Development; John Matre
Cincinnati
Sunshine Estates
2/23/2016
$2,045,000
64
$31,953
Churchhill Manor LLC
Ecliptix Network Solutions Inc
Dayton
Fitzroy Apartments
4/20/2016
$2,000,000
96
$20,833
AMG Fitzroy LLC
B & L Associates LLC
Columbus
1316-1414 McArthur Ave
2/11/2016
$1,950,000
46
$42,391
Aha-Mclin Housing LLC
First 202 Housing Corporation
Dayton
1/7/2016
$1,950,000
60
$32,500
UT Collins Property LLC
Irshad Ahmed
Cleveland
Ridgewood Court Townhomes
3/16/2016
$1,900,000
64
$29,688
Ridgewood LLC
Ridgewood Court Company
Dayton
Slopes of Aspen
3/14/2016
$1,860,000
40
$46,500
KAAPS 2720 LLC
Fath Slopes Of Aspen LLC
Cincinnati
Shaker Square Tower
2/10/2016
$1,550,000
50
$31,000
Oak Bend Holdings LLC
Davis REI LLC
Cleveland
1/6/2016
$1,550,000
48
$32,292
Village South Apartments LLC
Village South Associates LP
Cincinnati
Highlands Apartments
4/8/2016
$1,436,964
215
$6,684
JHS One Properties LLC & Fountains Apts LLC
Fountains Apts LLC
Cincinnati
860 Gordon Smith Blvd
1/16/2016
$1,350,000
36
$37,500
Young J Cho
Gordon Smith Properties LLC
Cincinnati
Maple Ridge Apartments
4/20/2016
$1,338,000
60
$22,300
C&F Maple Ridge LLC
Andover Court Ltd
Columbus
Pleasant Meadow Apartments
2/22/2016
$1,326,000
28
$47,357
BCHF Pleasant LLC
Buckeye Community Three LP
Cleveland
6308 Corbly St
2/17/2016
$1,300,000
43
$30,233
Lanterprise Investment LLC
Brandywine Apartments Mt Washington LLC
Cincinnati
Crestway Biltmore Apartments
2/16/2016
$1,279,000
36
$35,528
Crestway Biltmore Properties LLC
Crestway Manor Apartments LTD
Cleveland
Waterside Estates
3/29/2016
$1,199,000
40
$29,975
Kelar Properties LLC
Lakeview Estates Limited
Cleveland
4/9/2016
$1,169,500
42
$27,845
Whitmore Arms Associatates LLC
Matthews A Cowles
Dayton
5/10/2016
$1,150,000
48
$23,958
Arborwood LLC
Zuro Properties LLC
Columbus
4/1/2016
$1,137,500
21
$54,167
Rose Wood Apts II LLC
Telecom Transformation Services Inc
Cleveland
The Flats
2/26/2016
$1,125,000
97
$11,598
Mill Creek Vista LLC
Plum Street Multi Family Housing LLC
Cincinnati
Hebron Heights
1/28/2016
$1,097,996
48
$22,875
Hebron Heights Preservation LP
Leads
Columbus
Blue Fountain Apartments
4/4/2016
$1,080,000
68
$15,882
LSTAR2 Blue Fountain Holding Company LLC
Pamela J Schumaker
Cincinnati
204 E North St
1/6/2016
$1,075,000
25
$43,000
RS Investments LLC
Apple Three Properties LLC et al
Cincinnati
3/16/2016
$1,010,000
22
$45,909
Dayton Residential Properties LLC
Jakes Unlimited Inc
Dayton
$369,985,230
6,906
$53,574
Pinegrove Apartments
Village South Apartments
Whitmore Arms Apartments
5729-5737 Arborwood Ct
Meadowbrook Park Townhomes
Orchard Grove Apartments
Total
Source: Colliers Research, CoStar, Real Capital Analytics, Xceligent
4
Ohio Research & Forecast Report | 1H 2016 | Multifamily Market Outlook | Colliers International
Ohio Apartment Market Data | 1H 2016
ROW LABELS
INVENTORY
(# OF UNITS)
VACANT
UNITS
QRTLY DEMAND
OCCUPANCY RATE
(%)
QTRLY NEW SUPPLY
(UNITS)
UNITS UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
AVG MONTHLY RENT
AVG RENT PER SF
Cincinnati
148,458
6,235
607
95.8%
52
3,226
$848.00
$0.92
Cleveland
161,375
5,971
307
96.3%
80
1,880
$847.00
$1.00
Columbus
155,383
6,837
728
95.6%
587
5,799
$828.00
$0.88
56,819
2,670
27
95.3%
0
854
$749.00
$0.83
522,035
21,713
1,669
95.8%
719
11,759
$818.00
$0.91
Dayton
Grand Total
Source: MPF Research
Market Takeaways
• In Cincinnati, demand of over 3,300 units over the past 12 months outpaced new supply of 1,104 units, contributing to
a five-year high of 95.8 percent occupancy; a year-over-year increase of 1.5 points. Average monthly rents increased
3.9 percent, year-over-year – well ahead of the market’s five year average of 2.7 percent. Construction activity has
increased and quarterly deliveries remain ahead of the five year average as well. Demand is forecast to increase only
slightly above the historical average, however, a renewed interest in urban living makes predicting future demand
levels difficult. Current activity leads one to believe that demand will remain above average in the near term, especially
in downtown and areas surrounding the urban core. The two demographic cohorts generating demand for apartments,
millennials and baby-boomers, have grown in population by 4.1 and 12.1 percent, respectively. However, Cincinnati’s
rapidly improving single-family home market will continue to create headwinds for the multifamily sector.
• The Columbus apartment market saw occupancy drop by 80 basis points over the past two quarters to 95.6 percent.
However, this is still 40 bps higher than one year ago. Annual completions have averaged 2,341 units over the past
five years and the past 12 months were no exception as nearly 2,500 units were added to the inventory. Average
annual demand of 2,784 units has outpaced supply, although the next 12 months will see over 3,500 units completed.
Job and population growth, which have both exceeded the U.S. average, have contributed to demand for apartments in
Columbus. The Millennial demographic cohort, along with Baby Boomers, make up larger percentages of the population
than national averages in the region. These two groups, key demand generators for apartments, should mitigate the
risk of over-supply in the near term.
• Occupancy in the Cleveland apartment market has increased by 20 basis points, year-over-year, to 96.3 percent.
Demand has consistently outpaced supply, contributing to a five year average occupancy of nearly 96 percent. At 68.3
percent, the metro’s homeownership rate is ranked in the top 15 nationwide, leading to a cautious approach to new
development. Most new product has been added to the Central and Beachwood/Mayfield submarkets. Demand for
downtown living, along with conversion costs driving higher average rents, was the primary contributor to a yearover-year rent increase of 4.6 percent; well above of the five year average of 2.7 percent. However, it is forecast that
rent increases will return to the historical average. The affordable single-family housing market will continue to create
headwinds for the Cleveland multifamily market, leading to modest growth levels in the future.
• The year-over-year change in the Dayton apartment market’s occupancy rate was a full percentage point, increasing
to 95.3 percent. Demand of 757 units during the year far exceeded new supply of 152 units, but this increased level
of activity attracted new development and completions are forecast to approach 800 units over the next 12 months.
This will increase the inventory by 1.3 percent, the highest level of activity in over 10 years. Likewise, elevated demand
levels contributed to the largest annual increase in average rents in eight years; a gain of 4.1 percent, year-over-year.
However, it is expected that the market will return to a slower growth mode as new supply is absorbed and rent
increases moderate as well. Improvement in single-family home sales will also temper future growth in the Dayton
multifamily market.
5
Ohio Research & Forecast Report | 1H 2016 | Multifamily Market Outlook | Colliers International
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and staff
MULTIFAMILY BROKERAGE SERVICES | contact
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Copyright © 2016 Colliers International.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While
every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No
responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their
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