August 2012
January 2017
Industry Update
Food and Agribusiness
Supermarket & Restaurant Comps
• Supermarket comparable sales are in the -2.0%
to -1.0% range driven by -1.5% to -1.0%
volume decline and -0.5% to 0.0% price.
• Restaurant comparable sales are in the -1.5% to
-0.5% range driven by -3.5% to -3.0% volume
growth and 2.0% to 2.5% price. The restaurant
comp midpoint remains -50bp below the 1Q16
average of +1.5%, driven by persistent
weakness in casual-dining.
Key Demand Developments
• Growth in housing prices remain a positive to
consumer balance sheets, with the Case-Shiller
20 city index rising +5.1% Y/Y in October.
• The performance of the S&P 500 was up +9.5%
YoY, a tailwind for the consumer balance sheet.
• The consumer income statement is also boosted
by job and wage growth as non-farm payrolls
increased by +1.5% Y/Y in December and
average hourly earnings increased +2.5% Y/Y,
both tailwinds for the consumer income
statement.
• Gas prices continue to be a tailwind for the
consumer; oil futures have hovered above
$50/barrel, up +41% YoY. Despite YoY gains,
gas prices remain -25% below the 5 year
average.
• The Consumer Confidence Index as measured by
the Conference Board was 113.7 in December 18
points below the December 2015 reading of
96.3.
Consumer and Producer Price Indices
10%
CPI Food Away From Home
Price & Food Inflation Developments
CPI Food At Home
• We maintain a constructive outlook for volumes
given pricing levels below 3%. The spread
between restaurant and food retail pricing
continues to widen.
PPI All Food
8%
Y/Y Change (%)
6%
• Restaurant pricing measured by the CPI food
away from home index (CPI-FAFH) increased
+2.3% in December Y/Y, which is flat vs. the
prior month and -30bp vs. the prior year.
4%
2%
0%
• Food Retail pricing measured by the CPI food at
home index decreased -2.0% in December Y/Y,
which is up +20bp vs. the prior month and down
-150bp vs. the prior year.
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Jan- 12 Jul- 12 Jan- 13 Jul- 13 Jan- 14
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jul- 14
Jan- 15
Jul- 15
Jan- 16
Jul- 16
• The Producer Price Index (PPI All Food)
decreased -1.6% in December Y/Y, which is up
+240bp vs. the prior month and up +410bp vs.
prior year.
Industry the
Research
Update: Food and Agribusiness 1
1
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Grocery Department Trends: Perimeter categories continue to show volume momentum; while
center of the store volumes remain weak. Pricing is decelerating in all departments.
Frozen Foods
Dry Grocery
6.0%
4.0%
Volume
Volume
Price
3.0%
Price
4.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16
Source: Nielsen AOC+C
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
Volume
Price
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16
Source: Nielsen AOC+C
Deli
Dairy
8.0%
Volume
10.0%
Price
6.0%
8.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2.0%
4.0%
0.0%
2.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
-6.0%
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16
Source: Nielsen AOC+C
-4.0%
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16
Source: Nielsen AOC+C
Fresh Produce
Bakery
3.0%
7.0%
Volume
6.0%
Volume
Price
Price
2.0%
5.0%
4.0%
1.0%
3.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16
Source: Nielsen AOC+C
-3.0%
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
Source: Nielsen AOC+C
• Dry Grocery 4Q16 price/mix increased +0.9% YoY, a
decrease of -30bp vs. 3Q16. Dry Grocery volumes
decreased -0.7% YoY, a decrease of -40bp vs. 3Q16.
• Frozen Food 4Q16 price/mix increased +0.7% YoY, a
decrease of -40bp vs. 3Q16. Frozen Food volumes
decreased -2.1% YoY, a decrease of -140bp vs. 3Q16.
• Dairy 4Q16 price/mix decreased -3.7% YoY, an increase of
+70bp vs. 3Q16. Dairy volumes decreased -2.6% YoY, a
decrease of -110bp vs. 3Q16.
• Deli 4Q16 price/mix decreased -1.7% YoY, a decrease of
-10bp vs. 3Q16. Deli volumes increased +4.5% YoY, a
decrease of -110bp vs. 3Q16.
• Fresh Produce 4Q16 price/mix decreased -2.6% YoY, a
decrease of -180bp vs. 3Q16. Fresh Produce volumes
increased +4.4% YoY, a decrease of -160bp vs. 3Q16.
• Bakery 4Q16 price/mix increased +0.1% YoY, a decrease of
-60bp vs. 3Q16. Bakery volumes increased +0.8% YoY, an
increase of +80bp vs. 3Q16.
2
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Food Company Margin Heat Map YoY
Price vs. Volume
Commodities
Labor
Grain
Protein
Constructive
Flat
Deflationary Deflationary
Food Company Input Cost
Summary:
• Economic Backdrop: Economic activity grows but
input cost inflation handicapped by the strong
dollar.
• Corn, Wheat & Soy Prices: 15/16 prices reflected
deflationary pressures, 16/17 forecasts continued
low price levels in corn, wheat and soy on increased
production across all three commodities. 16/17
forecasts point to supplies and improved yields
across all three commodities.
• Chicken: Prices are near 2015/16 levels as
supplies are ample but tightening despite improving
exports.
• Beef: Prices are near 2016 levels despite long-term
impact of increased heifer slaughter and improving
exports.
• Pork: Prices are near 2015/16 levels anchored by
ample supplies despite solid exports.
Energy
Mixed
Mixed
Key Commodity Heat Map
Commodity
Price
Y/Y
M/M
Corn
$3.52
-5.2%
+2.1%
Wheat
$4.03
-16.1%
+0.2%
Soybeans
$10.23
+16.4%
+1.4%
Broilers
$0.79
+5.2%
+12.1%
Cattle
$1.14
-12.6%
+6.3%
Hogs
$0.62
+5.5%
+24.1%
Milk
$15.26
-8.7%
+4.5%
Shrimp
$4.68
+7.6%
-2.6%
Salmon
$5.35
+57.1%
+4.8%
• Packer Margin Environment: Chicken ratios are
flat with 2015 levels, beef ratios have been steadily
above 2015 levels and pork ratios have retreated
off Oct16 highs.
Nat. Gas
$7.59
+5.3%
-2.2%
Electricity
$9.88
-2.3%
-2.2%
• Seafood: Shrimp prices are above 2015 levels;
salmon prices have broken out well above 2015
levels.
Heating Oil
$2.48
+17.5%
+10.1%
Rest. Labor
$13.05
+3.8%
+0.3%
Sup. Labor
$13.01
0.0%
+1.9%
Food Labor
$16.90
+4.1%
+0.8%
• Dairy: Current prices are in-line with 2016 levels as
supplies are ample, despite improving exports.
• Specialty Crops: Current sugar, coffee and orange
juice prices are inflationary YoY, while cocoa prices
have been in decline since June.
• Forestry Products: Strength in housing starts and
remodel activity continues to support demand for
framing lumber and structural panels.
• Crop Inputs: Fertilizer prices remain below 2015
levels with higher than expected imports. Three of
the four prices measured are well below 2015
levels.
*Monthly average corn, wheat, soybeans in $/bu; broiler, shrimp in $/lb; cattle, hogs, milk in,
$/cwt; salmon, cod in $/kg; gas in $/Mct; oil in $/gal; electricity in $/kWh; labor in $/hr
Source: USDA; BLS; IMF; IntraFish
• Energy & Labor: Global oil prices have kept
energy prices in check, while we observe wage
inflation gains in restaurants and food
manufacturing, with declines in supermarket labor.
3
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Economics: Economic activity grows but input cost inflation handicapped by the strong
dollar.
Voluntary Quits as % of Employment
Trade Weighted Dollar vs. Ag Index
3.0%
Ag Bulk Commodities
120
Trade Weighted
Jan 2014=100
115
110
2.0%
105
100
95
Source: BLS, Wells Fargo
1.0%
Source: USDA, Federal Reserve, Wells Fargo
90
Jan-14
Weekly Earnings Rates
Weekly Wages
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Net Trade Balance
Food Inflation Adjusted
$900
$30.0
China HK
ROW
$25.0
0.7
$20.0
$850
7.1
5.3
$15.0
10.3
$10.0
$800
$0.0
-$5.0
2.6
6.5
22.7
22.0
13.8
$5.0
$750
3.9
21.6
16.3
16.1
(1.1)
(6.1)
(4.5)
(17.9)
-$10.0
$700
15.8
9.1
(20.0)
-$15.0
-$20.0
Source: USDA, Wells Fargo
Source: BLS, Wells Fargo
$650
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
-$25.0
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
2007
Mar-16
Billions of Miles Driven
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Jan - Nov
2016
Net Export as % of Production
300
25%
Beef
Pork
Broiler
290
280
20%
270
15%
260
250
10%
240
5%
230
220
0%
210
200
Source: Federal Highway Admin
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
-5%
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Source: USDA, Wells Fargo
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
• The November 2016 voluntary quits as a percentage of
employment of 1.7% was up +0.1% vs. the Nov15 reading
of 1.6%. The 12 month rolling average is approaching prerecessionary levels.
• The December 2016 trade weighted dollar index value of
119.0 vs. bulk commodity dollar index value of 106.4
represents a wider gap when compared to the December 2015
values of 114.8 and 106.2 respectively.
• The December 2016 weekly average earnings are growing
+2.3% YoY on a nominal basis; when deflated by food &
beverage CPI the Dec16 average wages of $719/week
increased +2.4% vs. Dec15. The pre-recession inflation
adjusted peak was $703/week in December of 2006.
• The YTD 2016 net trade balance of -$4.2 billion is on pace to
be the largest full year trade deficit since pre 2007. The 2015
trade deficit was -$1.6 billion largely driven by imports from
countries other than China/HK.
• The November 2016 monthly average miles driven of 262
billion increased +4.2% vs. Nov15 as gas prices and better
employment continue to provide tailwinds.
• The 2017 pork and broiler markets face a stronger headwind
from dollar strengthening as net exports comprise 16.4% and
16.4% percent of total production vs. -0.2% for beef.
4
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Soft Commodities Prices: 15/16 prices reflected deflationary pressures, 16/17 forecasts
continued low price levels in corn, wheat and on increased production.
Corn
$5.50
2014
2015
2016
Futures
• The December monthly average corn
price of $3.52/bu increased +2.1% vs.
the prior month and decreased -5.2%
vs. the prior year period.
$/Bushel
$5.00
• The WASDE’s (World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates) median
average farm price projection for
2016/17 is $3.40/bu, down -5.8% from
$3.61/bu in 2015/16. WASDE’s prior
projection for 2016/17 was $3.35/bu.
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
• WASDE forecasts global corn production
to be 1,038 million tons in 2016/17
which is up +8.0% vs. 2015/16.
Source: FactSet
Wheat
2014
$7.50
2015
2016
• The December monthly average wheat
price of $4.03/bu increased +0.2% vs.
the prior month and decreased -16.1%
vs. the prior year period.
Futures
$/Bushel
$6.50
• The WASDE U.S. median average farm
price forecast for 2016/17 is $3.80/bu,
down -22.3% from $4.89/bu in
2015/16. WASDE’s prior projection for
2016/17 was $3.70/bu.
$5.50
• WASDE forecasts global wheat
production to be 753 million tons for
2016/17, which is up +2.3% vs.
2015/16.
$4.50
$3.50
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: FactSet
Soybeans
• The December monthly average
soybean price of $10.23/bu increased
+1.4% vs. the prior month and
increased +16.4% vs. the prior year
period.
$16.00
2014
2015
2016
Futures
$14.50
$/Bushel
$13.00
• The WASDE U.S. median average farm
price forecast for 2016/17 is $9.50/bu,
up +6.1% from $8.95bu in 2015/16.
WASDE’s prior projection for 2016/17
was $9.45/bu.
$11.50
$10.00
• WASDE forecasts global soybean
production at 338 million tons for
2016/17, which is up +7.9% vs.
2015/16.
$8.50
$7.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Source: FactSet
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
5
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Soft Commodities Fundamentals: 16/17 forecasts point to ample corn and wheat supplies and
improved yields across all three commidities.
Corn
2014/2015 2015/2016E 2016/2017P 2016/2017P M/M Change Y/Y Change
December
January
Forecast
Forecast
Area Planted (mm)
90.6
88.0
94.5
94.0
-0.5%
6.8%
Area Harvested
83.1
80.7
86.8
86.7
-0.1%
7.4%
Yield per Harvested Acre (bu)
171
168.4
175.3
174.6
-0.4%
3.7%
Beginning Stocks (mm bu)
Production
Imports
Total Supply
1,232
14,216
32
15,479
1,731
13,601
60
15,392
1,738
15,226
50
17,013
1,737
15,148
55
16,940
-0.1%
-0.5%
10.0%
-0.4%
0.3%
11.4%
-8.3%
10.1%
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
1,864
13,748
1,731
1,825
13,685
1,708
2,225
14,610
2,403
2,225
14,585
2,355
0.0%
-0.2%
-2.0%
21.9%
6.6%
37.9%
Stocks to Use (%)
12.6%
12.5%
16.4%
16.1%
-0.3%
3.7%
• The January WASDE report for the
2016/17 corn harvest year forecasts
yield per acre to increase +3.7% YoY
and total supply to increase +10.1%
YoY. Ending stocks are expected to be
up +37.9% YoY and stocks to use up
+3.7% YoY.
• The January WASDE report estimate
for total supply decreased -0.4% vs.
the prior month; the estimate for
ending stocks decreased -2.0% vs. the
prior month and estimated stocks to
use decreased -30bp.
Wheat
2014/2015 2015/2016E 2016/2017P 2016/2017P M/M Change Y/Y Change
December
January
Forecast
Forecast
Area Planted (mm)
56.8
54.6
50.2
50.2
0.0%
-8.1%
Area Harvested
46.4
47.1
43.9
43.9
0.0%
-6.8%
Yield per Harvested Acre (bu)
43.7
43.6
52.6
52.6
0.0%
20.6%
Beginning Stocks (mm bu)
Production
Imports
Total Supply
590
2,026
149
2,766
752
2,052
117
2,921
976
2,310
125
3,410
976
2,310
125
3,410
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
29.8%
12.6%
6.8%
16.7%
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
854
2,013
753
775
1,941
980
975
2,267
1,143
975
2,224
1,186
0.0%
-1.9%
3.8%
25.8%
14.6%
21.0%
37.4%
50.5%
50.4%
53.3%
2.9%
2.8%
Stocks to Use (%)
• The January WASDE report for the
2016/17 wheat harvest year forecasts
yield per acre to increase +20.6% YoY
and total supply to increase +16.7%
YoY. Ending stocks are expected to be
up +21.0% YoY and stocks to use up
+2.8% YoY.
• The January WASDE report estimate
for total supply was unchanged vs. the
prior month; the estimate for ending
stocks increased +3.8% vs. the prior
month and estimated stocks to use
increased +290bp.
Soybeans
2014/2015 2015/2016E 2016/2017P 2016/2017P M/M Change Y/Y Change
December
January
Forecast
Forecast
Area Planted (mm)
83.3
82.7
83.7
83.4
-0.4%
0.8%
Area Harvested
82.6
81.8
83.0
82.7
-0.4%
1.1%
Yield per Harvested Acre (bu)
47.5
48.0
52.5
52.1
-0.8%
8.5%
Beginning Stocks (mm bu)
Production
Imports
Total Supply
92
3,927
33
4,052
191
3,929
30
4,150
197
4,361
30
4,588
197
4,307
25
4,528
0.0%
-1.2%
-16.7%
-1.3%
3.1%
9.6%
-16.7%
9.1%
Crushings
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
1,875
1,843
3,861
191
1,890
1,760
3,780
370
1,930
2,050
4,108
480
1,930
2,050
4,108
420
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-12.5%
2.1%
16.5%
8.7%
13.5%
Stocks to Use (%)
4.9%
9.8%
11.7%
10.2%
-1.5%
0.4%
• The January WASDE report for the
2016/17 soybean harvest year
forecasts yield per acre to increase
+8.5% YoY and total supply to increase
+9.1% YoY. Ending stocks are expected
to be up +13.5% YoY and stocks to use
up +0.4% YoY.
• The January WASDE report estimate for
total supply decreased -1.3% vs. the
prior month; the estimate for ending
stocks decreased -12.5% vs. the prior
month and estimated stocks to use
decreased -150bp.
Source: USDA WASDE
6
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Chicken: Prices remain near 2015/16 levels as supplies are ample but tightening despite
improving exports.
Cold Storage Inventories
Whole Broiler Prices
Chicken (Million Pounds)
$1.30
Y/Y Change (%)
900
40%
$1.20
850
30%
$1.10
800
20%
750
10%
700
0%
650
-10%
600
-20%
550
-30%
2014
2015
2016
$/lb
$1.00
$0.90
$0.80
$0.70
$0.60
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
500
Jan-13
Jul-13
Source: USDA
Dec
Source: USDA
-40%
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Egg Sets
Boneless Skinless Breast Prices
215
$2.00
2014
Jul-14
2015
Egg Sets ( In million)
2016
210
$1.60
205
$1.40
200
$1.20
195
$1.00
190
$/lb
$1.80
6%
Y/Y% Change
4%
2%
0%
$0.80
-4%
185
$0.60
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
180
Jan-13
Sep-13
Source: USDA
Dec
Source: USDA
Boneless Skinless Thigh Prices
$1.50
-2%
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Broiler Exports
700
2014
-6%
May-14
2015
2014
2016
$1.35
2015
2016
650
$/lb
million lbs
$1.20
$1.05
600
550
$0.90
500
$0.75
$0.60
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: USDA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
• The December USDA broiler price of $0.840/lb increased
+6.0% vs. the prior month and +2.4% vs. Dec15.
• The WASDE U.S. median average price forecast for 2017 is
$0.830/lb, down -1.5% from $0.843/lb in 2016. The prior
projection for 2017 was $0.825/lb. Total 2016 production is
estimated to be 41.58mm lbs., up +2.2% vs. 2016.
• The December average breast price of $1.018/lb decreased
-0.1% vs. the prior month and increased +2.3% vs. Dec15.
The December average thigh price of $0.993/lb decreased
-5.4% vs. the prior month and increased +32.2% vs.
Dec15.
450
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: USDA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
• Fundamentals: Cold storage decreased -10.6% in November
Y/Y, which is down -750bp vs. the prior month. Egg sets
increased +2.5% in December Y/Y, which is up +60bp vs. the
prior month. Exports increased +11.8% in November Y/Y,
which is up +310bp vs. the prior month.
• The December combined regional large egg price of
$1.05/dozen increased +70.2% vs. the prior month and
decreased -34.5% vs. Dec15.
7
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Beef: Prices are near 2016 levels despite long-term impact of increased heifer slaughter and
improving exports.
Live Cattle Prices
$1.80
Heifer Slaughter
2014
2015
2016
30.0%
Futures
2015
2016
20.0%
$1.60
15.0%
% Chg YoY
$1.50
$/lb
2014
25.0%
$1.70
$1.40
$1.30
$1.20
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
$1.10
-15.0%
$1.00
-20.0%
$0.90
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: FactSet
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
-25.0%
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: USDA
2014
2015
270
2016
250
240
230
million lbs
255
225
210
195
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2014
2015
Nov
Dec
2016
210
190
170
180
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: USDA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
150
Dec
Jan Feb Mar
Source: USDA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Monthly Cattle Processing
Cold Storage Inventories
550
2,400
40%
Beef (million pounds)
Y/Y Change (%)
Baseline Slaughter
Incremental Weight
15.0%
Y/Y Change (%)
30%
500
10.0%
2,200
20%
5.0%
10%
450
0%
400
-10%
-20%
350
Pounds (000s)
$/cwt
May
Beef and Veal Exports
Cut Out Values
270
Apr
2,000
0.0%
-5.0%
1,800
-10.0%
-30%
300
Jan-13
Jul-13
Source: USDA
-40%
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
• The December cattle price of $1.14/lb increased +6.3%
vs. the prior month and decreased -12.6% vs. Dec15.
• The WASDE U.S. median average price forecast for 2017
is $109.5/cwt, down -9.4% from $120.86/cwt in 2016.
The prior projection for 2017 was $107/cwt. Total 2017
production is estimated to be 26.0mm lbs., up +2.9% vs.
2016.
• The December average cut-out value increased +4.8%
vs. the prior month and decreased -2.9% vs. Dec15.
1,600
Jan-13
Jul-13
Source: USDA
-15.0%
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
• Fundamentals: Cold storage increased +4.1% in November
Y/Y, which is down -50bp vs. the prior month. Heifer
slaughter numbers increased +17.4% in November Y/Y,
which is up +930bp vs. the prior month. Exports increased
+25.1% in November Y/Y, which is up +770bp vs. the
prior month. Cattle head processed increased +16.4% in
November Y/Y which is up +1150bp vs. the prior month.
Slaughter weight data indicates that heavier weights
contributed to +8.1% of total slaughter volume, which
decreased -50bp vs. the prior year period.
8
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Pork: Prices are near 2015/16 levels anchored by ample supplies despite solid exports.
Live Hog Prices
$1.40
Sow Slaughter (3 Month Rolling Average)
10.0%
2014
$1.30
2015
2016
2014
Futures
$1.20
2015
2016
5.0%
$1.10
% Chg YoY
$/lb
$1.00
$0.90
$0.80
0.0%
-5.0%
$0.70
$0.60
-10.0%
$0.50
$0.40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: FactSet
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
-15.0%
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: USDA
Apr
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Pork Exports
Cut Out Values
600
140
2014
130
May
2015
2014
2016
2015
2016
550
120
500
million lbs
100
90
80
450
400
350
70
300
60
250
50
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: USDA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Jan
Feb Mar
Source: USDA
Dec
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Monthly Processing
Cold Storage Inventories
2,300
750
700
Pork (million pounds)
Y/Y Change (%)
Incremental Weight
Y/Y Change (%)
20%
15%
650
2,100
10.0%
1,900
0.0%
1,700
-10.0%
10%
600
5%
550
0%
500
-5%
450
-10%
400
-15%
350
-20%
300
Jan-13
Jul-13
Source: USDA
20.0%
Baseline Slaughter
25%
-25%
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
• The December average hog price of $0.62/lb increased
+24.1% vs. the prior month and increased +5.5% vs.
Dec15.
• The WASDE U.S. median average price forecast for 2017
is $39.5/cwt, down -14.5% from $46.2/cwt in 2016. The
prior projection for 2017 was $40/cwt. Total 2017
production is estimated to be 26.2mm lbs., up +5.1% vs.
2016.
• The December average cut-out value increased +5.0% vs.
the prior month and increased +6.6% vs. Dec15.
Pounds (000s)
$/cwt
110
1,500
Jan-13
Jul-13
Source: USDA
-20.0%
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
• Fundamentals: Cold storage decreased -0.8% in
November Y/Y, which is up +130bp vs. the prior month.
Sow slaughter increased +4.0% in November Y/Y, which
is up +40bp vs. the prior month. Exports increased
+18.3% in November Y/Y, which is up +830bp vs. the
prior month. Hogs processed increased +8.6% in
November Y/Y which is up +670bp vs. the prior month.
Slaughter weight data indicates that heavier weights
contributed to +3.3% of total slaughter volume, which is
up +50bp vs. the prior year period.
9
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Packer Margin Environment: Chicken ratios are flat with 2015 levels, beef ratios have
been steadily above 2015 levels and pork ratios have retreated off Oct16 highs.
Chicken
1st Q
Ratio
3rd Q
25.0
2014
2015
• The December USDA monthly average
chicken breast price to feed cost ratio
of 12.9 decreased -0.3 vs. the prior
month and increased +0.2 vs. the prior
year period.
2016
20.0
• The 10 year average ratio of 15.7
places the Dec16 result in the middle
50% of the 2006-2016 monthly results
15.0
10.0
5.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: USDA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Beef
3rd Q
2.00
2014
2015
2016
• The December USDA monthly average
beef cut-out to live cattle ratio of 1.72
decreased -0.02 vs. the prior month
and increased +0.17 vs. the prior year
period.
1.90
Ratio
1.80
• The 10 year average ratio of 1.60
places the Dec16 result in the top 25%
of the 2006-2016 monthly results.
1.70
1st Q
1.60
1.50
1.40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: USDA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Pork
3rd Q
1.70
2014
2015
• The December USDA monthly average
pork cut-out to live hog ratio of 1.25
decreased -0.23 vs. the prior month
and increased +0.01 vs. the prior year
period.
2016
1.60
1.50
Ratio
1.40
• The 10 year average ratio of 1.08
places the Dec16 result in the top 25%
the 2006-2016 monthly results.
1.30
1.20
1st Q
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
Jan
Feb Mar
Source: USDA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
10
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Seafood: Shrimp prices are above 2015 levels; salmon prices have broken out well above 2015
levels.
.
Shrimp Imports – Total Volume
Urner Barry Farm-Raised White Shrimp Index
65
7.5
2014
7.0
2015
2014
2016
6.5
million kg
$/lb
5.5
5.0
50
45
40
4.5
35
4.0
30
3.5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Source: Urner Barry
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Jan
Dec
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Salmon Imports – Total Volume
36
6.0
2014
2015
2016
2014
34
5.5
2015
2016
32
5.0
million kg
$/lb
30
4.5
4.0
28
26
24
3.5
22
3.0
20
18
2.5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Source: Urner Barry
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Jan
Dec
Alaskan Pollock
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: NOAA
Wild Alaskan Landings by Specie
2013
2014
1,200
2015
Pink
Sockeye
Chum
Coho
Chinook
1,000
3150
3100
$/Metric Ton
Feb
Source: NOAA
Urner Barry Fresh Farmed Salmon Index
3200
2016
55
6.0
3250
2015
60
800
3050
600
3000
2950
400
2900
2850
200
2800
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Source: Undercurrent News
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Urner Barry
• The December Urner Barry farm-raised white shrimp price of
$4.68/lb decreased -2.6% vs. the prior month and increased
+7.6% vs. the prior year period.
• The November NOAA measure of total US shrimp imports
was 61.8mm kg, an increase of +4.6% vs. the prior
month and an increased of +5.6% vs. Nov15.
• The December Urner Barry fresh farmed salmon price of
$5.35/lb increased +4.8% vs. the prior month and increased
+57.1% vs. the prior year period.
• The November NOAA measure of total US salmon imports
was 27.8mm kg, a decrease of -8.1% vs. the prior month
and -3.6% vs. Nov15.
• The Undercurrent News 2H15 Alaskan Pollock price of
$3000/metric ton decreased -1.6% vs. the 1H15 price of
$3050/metric ton. 2015 Prices remained roughly steady with
2H14 pricing. The pollock marker received a modest boost in
2H14 and early 2015 from stronger surimi pricing. Further
price increases are unlikely due to a 7% increase in 2016
catch quotas.
• 2015 wild Alaskan landings by specie increased +49.5%
vs. 2014 and was slightly above 2013 total landings. The
increase in landings was led by a +98% rise in pink
salmon.
11
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Dairy: Current prices are in-line with 2016 levels as supplies are ample, despite improving
exports.
Class I Milk
Milk Production
26
2014
2015
19,000
2016
24
million lbs
20
18
16
14
12
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
3%
2%
17,000
1%
16,500
0%
16,000
-1%
15,500
-2%
15,000
-3%
14,500
-4%
14,000
Jan-13 Jul-13
Source: USDA
-5%
Jan-14
16
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
-20%
2
-30%
0
-40%
Dec
Source: USDA
Cheddar Cheese, 40lb. block
Butter Prices Grade AA
2.6
2014
2Q17F
Jul
4
1Q17F
Jun
-10%
3Q16
May
0%
6
4Q16F
Apr
8
1Q13
12
10%
2Q16
14
10
1Q16
16
20%
4Q15
18
30%
12
3Q15
20
40%
Y/Y Change (%)
14
2Q15
22
Milkfat
1Q15
Bn lbs milk equivalent
24
Skim solids
4Q14
Futures
3Q14
2016
2Q14
2015
1Q14
2014
4Q13
26
2015
2014
3.0
2016
2.2
2015
2016
2.5
$/lb
$/lb
Jul-14
Dairy Exports
Class III Milk
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: USDA
4%
17,500
3Q13
Jan
Feb Mar
Source: USDA
Y/Y Change (%)
18,000
2Q13
$/cwt
22
$/cwt
5%
Production (mil lbs)
18,500
1.8
1.4
2.0
1.5
1.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: USDA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
• The January USDA class I milk price of $17.45/cwt increased
+3.4% vs. the prior month and +8.8% vs. Jan16. The
December average class III milk price of $17.40/cwt increased
+3.8% vs. the prior month and +20.5% vs. Dec15.
• The WASDE U.S. median average price forecast for 2017 is
$18.00/cwt, up +11.1% from $16.20/cwt in 2016. The prior
projection for 2017 was $17.25/cwt. Total 2017 production is
estimated to be 217.1bn lbs., up +2.2% vs. 2016.
• The December USDA average cheese price of $1.73/lb
decreased -7.7% vs. the prior month and increased +18.6%
vs. Dec15.
1.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: USDA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
• Fundamentals: Milk production increased +2.5% in
November Y/Y, which was unchanged vs. the prior month.
The milk cow herd size was up +20bp vs. the prior year
period. Total milkfat and skim solid exports are expected
to increase +18.1% in 4Q16 Y/Y, which is up +740bp vs.
the prior quarter.
• December average USDA Grade AA butter prices of
$2.18/lb increased +9.4% vs. the prior month and
decreased -6.7% vs. Dec15.
12
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Specialty Crops: Current sugar, coffee and orange juice prices remain inflationary YoY, while
cocoa prices have been in decline since June.
Sugar #16 Prices
Sugar #11 Prices
24
31
2015
2014
2016
22
27
20
25
18
c/lb
c/lb
2014
29
23
14
19
12
17
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
10
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: ICE
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Cotton
Orange Juice
2.40
0.95
2014
2015
2016
2014
0.90
2.20
2015
2016
0.85
2.00
0.80
$/lb
1.80
$/lb
2016
16
21
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: ICE
2015
1.60
0.75
0.70
0.65
1.40
0.60
1.20
0.55
0.50
1.00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: ICE
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: FactSet
Dec
Cocoa
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Coffee
2.20
3,450
2014
3,300
2015
2014
2016
2015
2016
2.00
3,150
1.80
$/lb
$/MT
3,000
2,850
2,700
1.60
1.40
2,550
1.20
2,400
2,250
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: FactSet
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1.00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: Factset
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
• The December ICE sugar #16 average price of $0.293/lb
increased +1.7% vs. the prior month and increased
+13.0% vs. the prior year period.
• The December ICE sugar #11 average price of $0.188/lb
decreased -9.5% vs. the prior month and increased
+25.5% vs. the prior year period.
• The December ICE orange juice average price of $2.04/lb
decreased -12.0% vs. the prior month and increased
+40.1% vs. the prior year period.
• The December average cotton price of $0.71/lb increased
+0.5% vs. the prior month and increased +11.0% vs. the
prior year period
• The December cocoa average price of $2,269/MT
decreased -8.3% vs. the prior month and decreased
-31.2% vs. the prior year period.
• The December average coffee price of $1.41/lb decreased
-13.1% vs. the prior month and increased +15.7% vs. the
prior year period.
13
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Specialty Crops: Growers anticipate improved yields in 2016 while keeping an eye on
opportunities to improve both foreign and domestic shipments.
Pistachio Prices
Almond Prices
$4.50
$4.00
$/Pound
$4.00
$/Pound
$3.50
$3.50
$3.00
$3.00
$2.50
$2.50
$2.00
$2.00
$1.50
$1.50
$1.00
$1.00
$0.50
$0.50
$0.00
$0.00
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'03 '04 '05
Source: USDA
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Pistachio Acres & Yield
Almond Acres & Yield
2,400
650
3,000
Millions Pounds
4,000
Millions Pounds
Yield Per Acre
Yield Per Acre
3,500
550
1,600
2,200
Pounds
million lbs
2,600
2,500
350
2,000
1,800
800
1,400
150
1,000
50
400
'03
'05
Source: USDA
'07
'09
'11
'13
3,000
450
1,200
250
1,500
1,000
500
'03
'05
Source: USDA
'15
Walnut Prices
'09
'11
'13
'15
1,400
$2.00
4,100
Millions Pounds
$/Pound
Yield Per Acre
1,200
$1.60
$1.20
$0.80
3,700
1,000
3,300
800
2,900
600
$0.40
400
$0.00
'03 '04 '05
Source: USDA
'07
Walnut Acres & Yield
million lbs
million lbs
2,000
Pounds
'06
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
2,500
'03
'05
Source: USDA
'07
'09
'11
'13
'15
• The 2015 USDA average grower price for almonds of
$2.84/lb decreased -29.0% vs. the 2014 average price of
$4.00/lb.
• The 2015 USDA average grower price for pistachios of
$2.48/lb decreased -30.5% vs. the 2014 average price of
$3.57/lb.
• The 2015 total annual almond production of 1,900 million
pounds increased +1.6% vs. the 2014 annual production
of 1,870 million pounds. The 2015 average yield per acre
of 2,130 pounds decreased -0.9% vs. the 2014 average of
2,370 pounds.
• The 2015 total annual pistachio production of 270mm pounds
decreased -48.0% vs. the 2014 production of 519mm
pounds. The 2015 average yield per acre of 1,160 pounds
decreased -50.2% vs. the 2014 average of 2,330 pounds.
• The 2015 USDA average grower price for walnuts of
$0.81/lb decreased -51.5% vs. the 2014 average price of
$1.67/lb.
• The 2015 total annual walnut production of 1,206mm pounds
increased +5.6% vs. the 2014 production of 1142mm
pounds. The 2015 average yield per acre of 4,020 pounds
increased +2.0% vs. the 2014 average of 3,940 pounds.
14
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
Pounds
'03 '04 '05
Source: USDA
August 2012
Forestry Products: Strength in housing starts and remodel activity continues to support
demand for framing lumber and structural panels.
U.S. Housing Starts
Framing Lumber Index
$450
2014
2015
1,400
2016
Y/Y Change (%)
1,300
Thousand Units
$400
$/Thousand Sq Ft
60%
New Units
$350
$300
40%
1,200
20%
1,100
1,000
0%
900
$250
-20%
800
$200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Source: Random Lengths
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
700
Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
Source: US Fed
Dec
315
$420
2015
2016
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
$ Billions Spent
Y/Y Change (%)
10%
9%
295
$400
8%
275
$380
$ Billions
$/Thousand Sq Ft
Jan-15
Repair & Remodel Expenditures (LTM total)
Structural Panel Index
2014
-40%
Jul-14
$360
$340
7%
6%
255
5%
235
4%
3%
215
$320
195
$300
175
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Source: Random Lengths
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2%
1%
0%
1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16
Source: jchs.harvard.edu
• The December Framing Lumber Composite Index of
$359/thousand sq ft increased +3.8% vs. the month prior
and increased +13.6% vs. the prior year period.
• The November U.S. Housing Starts of 1.09 million units
decreased -18.7% vs. the prior month and decreased -6.9%
vs. the prior year period.
• The December Structural Panel Composite Index of
$367/thousand sq ft increased +0.8% vs. the prior month
and increased +2.8% vs. the prior year period.
• The 3Q16 LTM repair and remodel total expenditure of
$303.7Bn increased +2.2% vs. the prior quarter and +6.6%
vs. the prior year period.
15
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Crop Inputs: Fertilizer prices remain under pressure with higher than expected imports. Three
of the four prices measured are well below 2015 levels.
Urea
Potash and Phosphate
450
120
2015
2016
2014
110
350
100
$/ST
$/ST
2014
400
300
2015
2016
90
250
80
200
70
60
150
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: FactSet
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: FactSet
Dec
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ammonia
DAP
600
630
2014
2015
2016
2014
580
550
2015
2016
530
480
$/ST
$/ST
500
450
400
430
380
330
280
350
230
300
180
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: FactSet
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: FactSet
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
• The December average urea index price of $236.0/ST
increased +18.3% vs. the prior month and increased
+4.2% vs. the prior year period.
• The December average potash and phosphate index price of
$67.0/ST increased +1.4% vs. the prior month and
decreased -16.3% vs. the prior year period.
• The December average DAP index price of $332.5/ST was
unchanged vs. the prior month and decreased-26.9% vs.
the prior year period.
• The December average ammonia index price of $207.0/ST
increased +6.7% vs. the prior month and decreased -43.5%
vs. the prior year period.
Gasoline Prices
Diesel Fuel Prices
$4.00
$4.20
2014
2015
2014
2016
$3.80
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$\Gallon
$\Gallon
Apr
$3.00
$2.60
2015
2016
$2.80
$2.40
$2.00
$2.20
$1.60
$1.80
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: EIA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
• The December average diesel fuel price of $2.51/gal
increased +2.9% vs. the prior month and increased
+8.7% vs. the prior year period.
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: EIA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
• The December average regular grade gasoline price of
$2.25/gal increased +3.3% vs. the prior month and
increased +10.6% vs. the prior year period.
16
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Energy and Labor: Global oil prices have kept energy prices in check, while we observe wage
inflation gains in restaurants and food manufacturing, with declines in supermarket labor.
Natural Gas Retail Prices
Restaurant Hourly Earnings
$10.50
2014
$10.00
2015
2016
Y/Y Change %
4.0%
$9.50
3.0%
$/tcf
$9.00
2.0%
$8.50
$8.00
1.0%
$7.50
0.0%
$7.00
$6.50
Jan
Feb Mar
Source: EIA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-1.0%
Jan-13
Jul-13
Source: BLS
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Supermarket Hourly Earnings (3 Month Rolling
Average)
Heating Oil Retail Prices
5.0%
$4.20
2014
$3.90
$\Gallon
Jan-14
2015
2016
$3.60
3.0%
$3.30
2.0%
$3.00
1.0%
$2.70
0.0%
$2.40
-1.0%
$2.10
-2.0%
$1.80
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: EIA
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Y/Y Change % 3 Month Avg
4.0%
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-3.0%
Jan-13
Jul-13
Source: BLS
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Food Manufacturing Hourly Earnings
Commercial Electricity Prices
5.0%
11.4
2014
11.2
2015
Y/Y Change %
2016
4.0%
11.0
3.0%
cents/kwh
10.8
2.0%
10.6
10.4
1.0%
10.2
0.0%
10.0
9.8
Jan
Feb
Mar
Source: BLS
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-1.0%
Jan-13
Jul-13
Source: BLS
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
• The December average natural gas price of $7.59/Mcf
decreased -2.2% vs. the prior month and increased
+5.3% vs. the prior year period.
• The restaurant labor index increased +3.8% Y/Y in
December, which was up +10bp vs. the prior month and
up +150bp vs. the prior year period.
• The December average heating oil price of $2.48/gal
increased +10.1% vs. the prior month and increased
+17.5% vs. the prior year period.
• The supermarket labor index decreased -2.5% Y/Y in
November, which was up +50bp vs. the prior month and
-630bp vs. the prior year period.
• The December average electricity price of $0.0988/kWh
decreased -2.2% vs. the prior month and decreased
-2.3% vs. the prior year period.
• The food manufacturing labor index increased +4.1% Y/Y
in December, which was up +10bp vs. the prior month
and up +90 vs. the prior year period.
17
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.
August 2012
Food and Agribusiness Industry Advisors
Colin Guheen, CFA
Packaged Food, Restaurant and Food Retail
Industry Risk Consultant
[email protected]
212-214-3524
Christopher Innes, CFA
Packaged Food, Restaurant and Food Retail
Industry Risk Analyst
[email protected]
212-214-7823
Kevin Bergquist
Forest Products Sector Manager
[email protected]
503-886-4148
Michael Swanson, Ph.D.
Chief Agriculture Economist
[email protected]
612-667-5136
David Branch
Specialty and Non-Grain Crop Sector Manager
[email protected]
704-410-8997
Denise Cahill
Industry Advisors Group Manager
[email protected]
559-622-3012
Matt Dusi
Specialty and Non-Grain Crop Sector Manager
[email protected]
559-203-2994
Karol Aure-Flynn
Specialty Crops Analyst, Analyst Team Lead
[email protected]
559-622-3045
Scott Etzel
Protein - Seafood Sector Manager
[email protected]
503-886-4164
Chris Eggerman
Sector Analyst, Grains, Crop Inputs, Forest Products
[email protected]
913-234-7702
Rob Fox
Dairy Sector Manager
[email protected]
312-845-9743
Courtney Schmidt
Sector Analyst, Protein, Dairy
[email protected]
361-574-5207
Tim Luginsland
Grain & Oilseed Sector Manager
[email protected]
913-234-2921
Lee Ann Pearce
Specialty and Non-Grain Crop Sector Manager
[email protected]
Matt Stommes
Protein - Poultry & Beef Sector Manager
[email protected]
612-316-3724
Lon Swanson
Crop Inputs/Feed Sector Manager
[email protected]
913-234-2922
General disclosures
The views expressed are intended for Wells Fargo customers only. They present the opinions of the authors on
prospective trends and related matters in food and agribusiness as of this date, and do not necessarily reflect the
views of Wells Fargo & Co., its affiliates and subsidiaries. Opinions expressed are based on diverse sources that we
believe to be reliable, though the information is not guaranteed and is subject to change without notice. This is not
an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy or sell any security or foreign exchange product.
18
© 2017 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use.