Stock Market Briefing:
Selected P/E Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
June 14, 2017
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
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Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
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Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
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Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Forward P/E: S&P 500/400/600
Median Forward P/E: S&P 500
Forward P/E: Russell 2000
P/E & PEG: S&P 500
Trailing P/E
P/E
Forward P/E: Growth vs Value
June 14, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios
1-3
4
5
6
7
8-9
10
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Forward P/E: S&P 500/400/600
Figure 1.
18
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*
18
6/14
(daily)
S&P 500 LargeCap (17.6)
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
20
20
6/14
18
18
S&P 400 MidCap (18.3)
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
22
22
20
S&P 600 SmallCap (19.7)
20
6/14
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
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8
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
8
2018
* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Forward P/E: S&P 500/400/600
Figure 2.
32
32
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*
(weekly)
28
28
24
24
S&P 500 LargeCap (17.7)
20
20
6/2
16
16
12
12
8
8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
24
24
S&P 400 MidCap (18.3)
20
20
6/2
16
16
12
12
8
8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
24
24
S&P 600 SmallCap (19.5)
20
20
6/2
16
16
12
12
8
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1999
2000
8
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* Weekly stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Forward P/E: S&P 500/400/600
Figure 3.
28
26
28
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*
(daily)
26
24
24
S&P 500 LargeCap (17.6)
S&P 400 MidCap (18.3)
S&P 600 SmallCap (19.7)
22
20
22
20
6/14
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
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6
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
6
18
* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 4.
28
26
28
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*
(weekly)
26
24
24
22
22
20
20
18
18
6/9
16
16
14
14
12
12
S&P 500 LargeCap (17.6)
S&P 400 MidCap (18.3)
S&P 600 SmallCap (19.7)
10
10
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8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
8
2018
* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 3 / June 14, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios
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Median Forward P/E: S&P 500
Figure 5.
24
24
FORWARD P/E RATIO FOR S&P 500 (MEDIAN)
22
22
20
20
Feb
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
S&P 500 Median Forward P/E (18.4)
8
8
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6
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
6
20
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 6.
30
30
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500 (ACTUAL & MEDIAN)
25
25
20
20
Feb
May
15
15
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio* (17.7)
10
5
10
S&P 500 Median Forward P/E (18.4)
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82
84
86
5
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 4 / June 14, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios
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Forward P/E: Russell 2000
Figure 7.
35
35
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR RUSSELL 2000*
(weekly)
Russell 2000 (25.2)
Russell 2000 Growth (33.0)
Russell 2000 Value (20.3)
30
30
6/8
25
25
20
20
15
15
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10
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
10
2018
* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 8.
35
35
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR US SMALLCAP *
Russell 2000 (25.2)
S&P 600 SmallCap (19.7)
P/E capped at 35 due to extreme values.
30
30
6/8
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
yardeni.com
1999
2000
10
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 5 / June 14, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios
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P/E & PEG: S&P 500
Figure 9.
28
28
26
26
S&P 500 Reported Trailing P/E
1960-1978
24
24
22
22
S&P 500 Forward P/E*
1979-present
20
20
18
6/8
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
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4
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly from January 1979 through April 1994, then weekly.
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 10.
1.75
1.75
S&P 500 VALUATION: PEG RATIO
PEG Ratio* (1.4)
1.50
1.50
6/8
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.00
.75
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.75
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
* Forward P/E divided by LTEG, which is 5-year forward consensus expected annual earnings growth. Monthly through 2005, then weekly.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 6 / June 14, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios
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Trailing P/E
Figure 11.
60
60
P/E RATIO FOR S&P 500 (Using Trailing Reported Earnings)*
50
50
Capped at 45 due to extreme values
40
40
30
30
Q1
20
20
10
10
0
0
35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
* Using 4-quarter trailing reported earnings.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 12.
32
32
S&P 500 P/E RATIOS
S&P 500 P/Es
Trailing (using operating earnings)* (20.9)
Forward** (17.3)
28
24
28
24
Q1
20
20
May
16
16
12
12
8
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8
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
* Using 4-quarter trailing operating earnings.
** S&P 500 stock price index divided by S&P 500 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.
Page 7 / June 14, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios
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P/E
Figure 13.
60
60
US EQUITY MARKET CAPITALIZATION: NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS
(as a ratio of NFC after-tax profits from current production*)
50
50
40
40
30
Q1
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
* Including IVA and CCadj. These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and
depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 14.
40
35
40
US EQUITY MARKET CAPITALIZATION EXCLUDING FOREIGN ISSUES
35
As a ratio of:
After-Tax Profits from Current Production* (Avg = 13.8)
30
Corporate Cash Flow** (Avg = 9.1)
30
25
25
Q1
20
Q1
15
20
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
* Including IVA and CCadj. These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and
depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.
** After-tax operating retained earnings plus tax-return-based depreciation.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts, and
Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 8 / June 14, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios
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P/E
Figure 15.
55
55
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX*
45
45
S&P 500 (17.7)
S&P 500 Technology (18.7)
35
25
35
25
6/8
15
5
15
yardeni.com
5
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
* Stock price index divided by forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 16.
30
30
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500*
25
25
S&P 500 (17.7)
S&P 500 Ex Technology (17.4)
20
20
6/8
15
15
10
10
yardeni.com
5
5
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
* Stock price index divided by forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 9 / June 14, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios
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Forward P/E: Growth vs Value
Figure 17.
45
45
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE*
40
40
35
35
Growth (20.3)
Value (15.3)
30
30
25
25
6/8
20
20
15
15
10
10
yardeni.com
5
5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 18.
2.8
2.8
PEG RATIOS FOR S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE*
2.6
2.6
Growth (1.52)
2.4
2.4
Value (1.22)
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
6/8
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
.8
.8
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.6
.6
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
* Using 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth and price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 10 / June 14, 2017 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios
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