AIRCurrents Measuring Earthquake Magnitude 01.2008 Editor’s note: One of the many challenges facing the catastrophe modeler is reconciling the magnitudes of historical earthquakes that were recorded using a wide variety of different magnitude scales. Indeed, different sources will publish different magnitudes for the same event. For the lay person, it can be pretty confusing. In this article, AIR’s Dr. Mehrdad Mahdyiar helps us make sense of it all. He discusses the history of the various scales, their advantages and limitations, and why the scientific community seems finally to have settled on one: the moment magnitude scale. by Dr. Mehrdad Mahdyiar, Director of Earthquake Hazard, Research and Modeling, AIR Worldwide When an earthquake occurs, the first thing people want to know is its magnitude and location—the two most important pieces of information that characterize both the event and its damage potential. Several magnitude scales are currently in use. However, the one that the lay-person is perhaps most familiar with is long-lived Richter scale. Indeed, the popular press frequently, but mistakenly, labels reported earthquake magnitudes as Richter magnitudes. From a scientific point of view many advances have taken place since Richter proposed his scale in 1935. Recognition of the various magnitude scales used in historical catalogs and by seismologists today, and the proper normalization across them is critical to an appropriate assessment of seismic risk. In this article we discuss the scales that are used in the scientific literature and draw the reader’s attention to the one that is today most widely accepted as an objective and physically sound measure of earthquake magnitude. Interpreting the Historical Record Historical earthquake catalogs are the compilation of the time, geographic locations, and magnitudes of past earthquakes. This information provides seismologists with valuable insight into regional seismicity for hazard analysis. However, a glance through any historical catalog quickly reveals the difficulties seismologists face. Under the magnitude heading will be found terms like ML, mb, mB, MS, and MW, among others. Each represents a different approach to describing the size, or strength, of earthquakes. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and many different characteristics can be used to measure their strength. In general, an earthquake can be characterized either by a set of parameters that describes what happened underground, at the source, or by parameters that define its effects on the surface. Examples of the first category include rupture length and width, the average relative displacement across the fault surface, and the amount of stress relaxation that the rupture area experiences after the earthquake. Examples of the second category are ground displacement, velocity and acceleration, and damage to buildings and infrastructure. With the exception of the moment magnitude scale, MW, all magnitude scales are based on parameters in the second category. After all, measuring the effects of an earthquake on the surface is much simpler than trying to quantify what happened underground—sometimes many miles underground. Each of these magnitude scales in the second category attempt to measure the strength of earthquakes by quantifying the different types of seismic waves they generate. AIRCurrents 01.08|Measuring Earthquake Magnitude by Dr. Mehrdad Mahdyiar Early Magnitude Scales Richter Magnitude The first seismometer in North America was installed in 1897 at the Lick Astronomical Observatory on Mount Hamilton near San Jose, California. By 1935, when Charles Richter—a young physicist turning seismologist at the California Institute of Technology—developed the famous Richter magnitude scale, a number of instruments invented by Harry O. Wood and J.A. Anderson were already in operation in different parts of the state. Richter wanted to publish the first earthquake catalog for California and felt the need to assign some sort of metric to earthquakes to quantify their strength. Following an earlier 1931 study by Kiyoo Wadati in Japan, he plotted the peak ground motions (PGM) of few recorded earthquakes versus distance to see if he could identify a pattern. He and a colleague Hugo Gutenberg observed similarities between earthquakes in the rate of decay of PGM with distance. However, since PGM itself could be quite different from one earthquake to another, they plotted PGM on a logarithmic scale and constructed an empirical relationship that statistically captured the observed pattern of PGM decay with distance. As a result of their research, the Richter magnitude scale ML, which stands for local magnitude, was defined as: ML = log (A) – log (A0) where A is the recorded PGM on the Wood-Anderson seismometer and A0 is the PGM of a reference calibrating earthquake of “zero magnitude.” Richter arbitrarily defined a zero magnitude earthquake as one that creates a 1/1000 2 1 0 -1 log (A, A0) Before the invention and deployment of seismometers— instruments that measure and record motions of the ground—the only available information on earthquakes came from reports of the damage they caused. Not surprisingly, therefore, the first scales were developed by quantifying the damage and scaling earthquakes accordingly. Two such scales were the Rossi-Forel and Mercalli intensity scales that were developed in 1880 and 1902, respectively. The history of the first earthquake instrument goes back to the Chinese scholar Zhang Heng, in about 132 A.D. However, the first modern instrument that was able to record ground motions as a function of time was developed by John Milne in the early 1890s while a professor of mining and geology at Tokyo’s Imperial College of Engineering. -2 ML = log(A) - log (A0) (.001 mm) -3 Zero magnitude reference earthquake -4 -5 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 distance, km mm PGM at 100 km distance on the Wood-Anderson seismometer in southern California. Figure 1 shows the plot of the PGM used by Richter for constructing the magnitude scale. The ML scale is a logarithmic scale in the sense that a unit increase in magnitude represents a tenfold increase in PGM. A reconstruction of Richter’s plot of peak ground motions on the Wood-Anderson seismometer for selected earthquakes in Southern California. The dotted line represents the reference earthquake—one that creates PGA of 1/1000 mm at a distance of 100 km. The information on this plot was used to construct the famous Richter magnitude scale. Interestingly, the sensitivity of seismometers to different kinds of earthquakes depends on the resonant oscillation period of the mass and spring that comprises the recording instrument itself. The recording instrument within the Wood-Anderson seismometer, for example, has a natural period of 0.8 seconds. However, it is the very 0.8 s natural period of the Wood-Anderson instrument that limits its sensitivity to the long-period seismic waves produced by very large (or deep, or distant) earthquakes. As a result, the Richter magnitude scale “saturates”, preventing the proper measurement of the magnitude of large earthquakes.1 The concept behind the Richter magnitude scale was widely adopted in many parts of the world. One of its 2 AIRCurrents 01.08|Measuring Earthquake Magnitude by Dr. Mehrdad Mahdyiar main attractions was that the natural period of the WoodAnderson seismometer, at 0.8 s, is close to the natural period of many buildings, i.e. about 1 s, and is thus is a good measure of building response. Presently, however, no Wood-Anderson instrument remains in operation and ML in its original form is no longer reported. In cases where ML magnitudes are still calculated the analyses are based on the simulation of Wood Anderson seismograms by other recording instruments. Beyond Richter Charles Richter developed his magnitude scale in California using recorded PGM of shallow, crustal California earthquakes and a distance range of up to 600 km. Beyond 600 km, earthquake ground motions are dominated by surface waves with a dominant period of about 20 seconds. The formation and the propagation of surface waves through the Earth’s crust are different than those of the body waves, that is, the so-called P waves and S waves that are the first set of wave trains that reach a seismic station. The amplitudes of the surface waves are very sensitive to the depth of the earthquake. For example, deep earthquakes do not create large-amplitude surface waves. In 1945, Gutenberg proposed two new magnitude scales to address the issue of scaling distant shallow and deep earthquakes. The surface wave magnitude scale, MS, was introduced to measure the size of distant shallow earthquakes based on the amplitude of 20-second period surface waves. The body wave magnitude scale was introduced to measure the size of distant shallow or deep earthquakes based on the amplitude of direct or reflected P waves. When the recording instrument itself is characterized by a short natural period— about 1 second—the body wave scale is denoted as mb and when the instrument is a long period one—about 5 to 15 seconds—the scale is denoted as mB. In practice, the magnitude of an earthquake is estimated as the statistical average of a set of recorded magnitudes at many different stations. Often there are large variations in the magnitude estimates, reflecting the variations in seismic radiation in different directions, the regional geological complexities along the source-to-station propagation path, and the local soil conditions that may amplify or de-amplify the ground motions. The Modern Magnitude Scale As has been discussed, each of the magnitude scales discussed so far measure the strength of an earthquake by scaling its different types of ground motions with different dominant period. This makes all of these magnitude scales period, or frequency, dependent. This takes us back to the saturation problem. That is, different magnitude scales saturate, or stop increasing with increasing earthquake size. Generally, the shorter the dominant period of the ground motions used to develop the magnitude scale, the sooner it saturates with increasing the magnitude. For example, ML saturates sooner than MS since it scales an earthquake’s magnitude with ground motions having a dominant period of about 0.8 s compared to 20 s dominant period for MS. A more scientifically sound measure of the strength of an earthquake is the energy it radiates. However, since energy is calculated based on the ground motion it would have the same saturation problem as the magnitudes. Nevertheless, a number of empirical relationships have been developed to correlate seismic energy with different magnitude scales. For example, Gutenberg and Richter derived the following relationship for estimating energy from MS: log (E) = 11.8 + 1.5 * MS where E is in ergs. It is interesting to note that a unit increase in magnitude translates to a 31.6 times increase in radiated seismic energy. In 1966, Keiiti Aki, a prominent Japanese seismologist, formulated the concept of seismic moment, M0,as a measure of an earthquake source strength. Aki defined seismic moment as the product of (1) an earthquake’s displacement averaged over its rupture area, (2) the size of its rupture area, and (3) the shear modulus (a metric for quantifying the strength of materials) of the rocks near its rupture surface. In related research, B.V. Kostrov showed in 1974 that the radiated seismic energy is proportional to the average stress drop and average displacement over the fault surface. In 1977, Hiroo Kanamori, using Aki’s seismic moment concept and Kostrov’s seismic energy-moment relationship, introduced a new magnitude scale, called moment magnitude MW. This new magnitude scale has been resoundingly embraced by the seismological community primarily because it is based on a source parameter (M0) that is not frequency dependent, solving the saturation problem. Thus earthquakes like the magnitude 9.1-9.3 December 2004 Indonesia quake, which could not have been measured with any accuracy on the Richter scale, can today be 3 AIRCurrents 01.08|Measuring Earthquake Magnitude by Dr. Mehrdad Mahdyiar quantified with significant reliability—though even here there remains some uncertainty over the exact magnitude of an earthquake this size and thus the range of magnitude typically cited for this event. Presently, virtually all seismological institutes worldwide report the magnitudes of earthquakes in terms of moment magnitude, MW. Having said that, it is interesting to note that in Japan, where since 1926 the responsibility for publishing earthquake parameters has fallen to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), earthquake magnitudes are measured using the JMA magnitude scale, which is based on the maximum ground displacement (for large earthquakes) and/or velocity (for smaller events). Studies have shown that the difference between MJMA and MW is less significant for the subduction type earthquakes as compared to the crustal earthquakes. Recently, because of the ubiquitous use of MW, the JMA has begun issuing magnitude estimates using both scales. In Conclusion In this article we presented a brief review of the history and the general concept behind the major earthquake magnitude scales. As discussed, during the second half of the last century different magnitude scales have been devised as seismometers became available to record different types of waves forms. The motivation for developing these different scales was the very complexity of the earthquake phenomenon, which cannot be characterized and scaled by a single parameter, such as the peak ground motion it generates. In search for a universal parameter to define earthquake strength, seismologists introduced the concept of seismic moment and moment magnitude. MW is a stable magnitude that does not saturate, since seismic moment, the basic underlying parameter, is based on source parameters that are not frequency dependent. However, while the introduction of MW represents a major step in unifying the process of measuring the strength of earthquakes, MW alone cannot capture the many different characteristics of an earthquake, particularly as it relates to damage potential at different sites. We need also to know the stress drop at the source, the velocity by which the displacement on the fault surface reaches maximum, the detail of the fault slip distribution over the rupture area, and the detail of the regional and local site effects, among other things. These are all important parameters that, in one way or another, characterize the complex ground motion signals that are recorded at each of the seismic stations affected by an earthquake. In other words, the damage potential from earthquakes of similar MW can be very different because of these other complexities. That is why, in a catastrophe model, earthquake magnitude is only one of many parameters needed to reliably estimate damage and loss. About AIR Worldwide Corporation AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR) is the scientific leader and most respected provider of risk modeling software and consulting services. AIR founded the catastrophe modeling industry in 1987 and today models the risk from natural catastrophes and terrorism in more than 50 countries. More than 400 insurance, reinsurance, financial, corporate and government clients rely on AIR software and services for catastrophe risk management, insurance-linked securities, site-specific seismic engineering analysis, and property replacement cost valuation. AIR is a member of the ISO family of companies and is headquartered in Boston with additional offices in North America, Europe and Asia. For more information, please visit www. air-worldwide.com. 1 Mathematically, there is no upper or lower bound for ML. Very sensitive instruments can record very low levels of ground motion that translate to negative magnitudes. However, because the Wood Anderson seismometer is sensitive to the ground motions with a period of 0.8 seconds, the ML upper bound is limited by the radiation intensity of the seismic waves of this period range. This limitation is known as the magnitude saturation problem. ©2008 AIR Worldwide Corporation. All rights reserved. 4
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