Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Bipartisan Policy Center
Jim Turnure, Director, Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis
June, 2012 | Washington, DC
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
Transportation energy consumption projected to grow slowly
through 2035
Quadrillion Btu
History
Projections
2010
30
25
19%
Heavy-duty vehicles
64%
Light-duty vehicles
10%
5%
Air
Marine
23%
20
15
59%
10
5
0
1995
2000
2005
2%
2010
2015
2020
2025
Rail
2030
10%
5%
2%
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case
Excludes pipeline, lubricants, and military
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
2
Petroleum products continue to dominate transportation fuel
consumption
Quadrillion Btu
History
30
25
Projections
2010
Residual Fuel Oil and Other
E85
4%
Petroleum Fuel
11%
20
Natural Gas, Electricity,
Hydrogen
1%
5%
4%
12%
Jet Fuel
Marine
21%
28%
Diesel
15
10
63%
Motor Gasoline
54%
5
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case
Excludes pipeline
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
3
Efficiency improvements by highway vehicles mostly offset
underlying drivers of growth in energy consumption
Growth
2010
2035
(2010-2035)
Light duty vehicles
Fuel consumption (quadrillion Btu)
16.6
16.1
-3%
Number of licensed drivers (millions)
210
269
28%
12,700
13,300
5%
Efficiency of vehicle stock (mpg)
Heavy duty vehicles
Fuel consumption (quadrillion Btu)
20.4
28.2
38%
5.1
6.2
22%
Manufacturing output (billion 2005 dollars)
4,260
6,285
48%
8.9
12.5
40%
26,200
27,600
5%
6.7
8.1
21%
Miles per licensed driver
Number of heavy-duty vehicles* (millions)
Miles per vehicle
Efficiency of vehicle stock (mpg)
*Excludes buses
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
4
Light-duty vehicle energy consumption declines but motor
gasoline remains the primary fuel
Quadrillion Btu
History
20
Projections
2010
Gaseous, Hydrogen, and Electricity
2%
1%
8%
5%
E85
15
Diesel
10
Motor Gasoline
98%
87%
5
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
5
New light-duty vehicle fuel economy reaches almost 38 mpg by 2035
in the Reference case, which does not include proposed standards for
MY2017 to MY2025 vehicles
miles per gallon
History
45
Projections
2010
40
35
30
Summary of standards
25
20
2012-2016:
15
2020:
10
2017-2025:
34.1 mpg CAFE average (based on NHTSA
vehicle footprint sales distribution)
35 mpg by statute
Reference case does not include proposed
rulemaking from December 2011
5
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
6
Gasoline-only vehicles without hybrid technologies decline as a
share of new vehicle sales, but remain the largest share
U.S. light car and truck sales
millions
20
15
Gasoline-only vehicles without
hybrid technologies
E85 flex fuel
Mild hybrid electric
10
Diesel
Hybrid electric
5
Plug-in hybrid and all-electric
Gaseous and fuel cell
0
2000
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
7
Heavy-duty vehicle energy consumption grows due to rising
VMT and met primarily by diesel fuel
Quadrillion Btu
History
10
Projections
2010
Natural Gas
Motor Gasoline
2%
6%
8%
5
Diesel
92%
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
92%
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
8
AEO2012 transportation side cases
• CAFE Standards case
– Explores energy impacts assuming that light-duty CAFE and greenhouse gas emissions
standards proposed for model years 2017-2025 are enacted.
• High Technology Battery case
– Explores the impact of significant improvement in vehicle battery and non-battery system
cost and performance for light-duty vehicles.
• HD NGV potential case
– Incorporates revised CNG and LNG pricing assumptions and heavy-duty vehicle market
acceptance and explores energy and market issues associated with the assumed
expansion of natural gas refueling infrastructure for heavy-duty vehicles.
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
9
Light-duty vehicle energy consumption declines substantially in
CAFE Standards case
Quadrillion Btu
History
20
Projections
2010
Gaseous, Hydrogen, and Electricity
2%
E85
15
1%
10%
5%
Diesel
10
Motor Gasoline
98%
84%
5
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 CAFE Standards case
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
10
New light-duty vehicle fuel economy in CAFE standards case
compared to Reference case
miles per gallon
History
60
Projections
2010
55
50
45
40
35
30
Summary of standards
25
20
Reference:
34.1 mpg CAFE average (based on NHTSA
vehicle footprint sales distribution); 35 mpg by
2020 by statue
CAFE
Standards:
48.0 mpg CAFE average by 2025 (based on
projected sales distribution from side case)
15
10
5
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case and CAFE Standards case
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
11
Gasoline-only vehicles decline as a share of new sales in CAFE
Standards case
U.S. light car and truck sales
millions
20
CAFE Standards case
15
Gasoline-only vehicles without
hybrid technologies
E85 flex fuel
Mild hybrid electric
10
Diesel
Hybrid electric
5
Plug-in hybrid and all-electric
Gaseous and fuel cell
0
2000
2010
2025
Reference case
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case and CAFE Standards case
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
12
Battery technology breakthrough leads to relatively little change
in light-duty vehicle energy consumption mix
Quadrillion Btu
History
20
Projections
2010
Electricity
2%
E85
1%
7%
5%
15
Diesel
10
Motor Gasoline
98%
86%
5
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 High Technology Battery case
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
13
Plug-in and hybrid electric vehicle sales increase substantially
by 2035 in High Technology Battery case
U.S. light car and truck sales
millions
20
High Technology Battery case
15
Gasoline-only vehicles without
hybrid technologies
E85 flex fuel
Mild hybrid electric
10
Diesel
Hybrid electric
5
Plug-in hybrid and all-electric
Gaseous and fuel cell
0
2000
2010
2025
Reference case
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case and High Technology Battery case
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
14
Heavy-duty vehicle natural gas consumption grows
substantially in the HD NGV case
Quadrillion Btu
History
Projections
2010
10
Motor Gasoline
8%
Natural Gas
5
31%
5%
Diesel
92%
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
64%
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 HD NGV case
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
15
For more information
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly
Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual
Jim Turnure, Fuel Demand in the Transportation Sector
Washington, D.C., June 2012
16