The Latino Vote 2016:
Swing States and Wild Cards
Mark Hugo Lopez
Director of Hispanic Research
About the Hispanic Trends Project
Pew Hispanic Center established in 2001; rebranded
in 2013
Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts
A part of the Pew Research Center
Purpose is to improve understanding of the diverse
Hispanic population in the U.S. and to chronicle the
growing impact of this population on the U.S.
“Fact tank,” not a think tank
Youth, Naturalizations Main Sources of
Hispanic Eligible Voter Growth since 2012
Latinos Make Up Less than 20% of
Eligible Voters in 13 Potential Key States
Number of Latino Eligible Voters Growing Fast
In millions
27.3
23.3
Eligible Voters 19.5
16.1
11.2
7.7
13.2
9.7
8.3
3.7
4.3
4.9
1988
1992
1996
Voters
5.9
2000
11.2
7.6
2004
2008
2012
2016
Notes: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Voters are persons who say they voted.
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the Current Population Survey, November supplements for 1988-2012. 2016
projections are from the 2015 August supplement.
Millennials Larger Share Among Latino
Eligible Voters than Other Groups in 2016
Majority of
Hispanic Eligible Voters are U.S. Born
Foreign Born
1996
20
2nd gen
28
3rd gen
51
2000
25
26
49
2004
25
26
49
2008
26
2012
24
2016
25
27
47
31
33
45
42
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements
Voter Turnout Rates
in Presidential Elections
Percent who reported voting among U.S. citizens ages 18 and older
75
Black, non-Hispanics
66.6
70
65
64.1
White, non-Hispanics
60
55
Latinos
50
48.0
45
40
1988
46.9
Asian, non-Hispanics
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from CPS November Supplements, various years
2012
In 2012, Millennial Hispanics’ Turnout
Rate Trailed that of Most Other Groups
Latino Voters in PA and NJ
For Pennsylvania:
440,000 Latino eligible voters—10th largest in the U.S.
4.5% of all eligible voters in PA
41% are millennials
14% are naturalized U.S. citizens
64% are Puerto Rican; 11% are Mexican
For New Jersey:
831,000 Latino eligible voters—7th largest in the U.S.
13.6% of all eligible voters in NJ
35% are millennials
35% are naturalized U.S. citizens
40% are Puerto Rican; 29% are Dominican
Party Affiliation among
Latino Registered Voters
% among Latino registered voters
Democratic Party
65
60
58
56
55
40
25
28
25
62
57
67
70
63 63
49
27
23
26
25
24
22
20
27
20
Republican Party
Unauthorized
immigrant children
0
1999
2002
Source: Pew Research Center, 2014
2004
2006
2008 2009
2010
2012
2014
Which Party is
More Concerned about Latinos?
%Question:
among Latino
registered
Which
partyvoters
do you think has more concern for Hispanics/
Latinos: the
Republican Party, the Democratic Party or is there no difference?
% of Latino registered voters
Democratic
Party
55
60%
40
45
43
40
42
46
20
0
10
11
2002
2004
47
44
42
No difference
35
35
45
2008
35
33
23
Republican
Unauthorized
Party
2006
50
42
immigrant
8
8 children
6
Source: Pew Research Center, 2014
61
12
6
2010
10
10
2012
2014
Looking Forward to 2016
Florida is likely to be a key battleground state
Other battleground states rich in Hispanic voters
include:
Nevada
Colorado
Number of Hispanic voters likely to reach another
record high—with demographics playing a large role
For Hispanic voters, youth is an important key
Is Trump a motivator?
Will Republicans win the Latino vote?
Does speaking Spanish matter? Being Hispanic?
The Hispanic Vote in
Presidential Elections
In millions
71%
58%
40%
27%
Unauthorized
immigrant children
Source: Pew Research Center, 2012
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez
Director of Hispanic Research
[email protected]
2012 Presidential Vote,
by Race/Ethnicity
Obama
Hispanic
White
Black
Asian
Romney
71
27
39
59
93
Unauthorized
73
immigrant children
6
26
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of 2012 National Election Pool national exit poll results, 2012
Hispanic Voters in Florida
Hispanics in Florida
3rd largest Hispanic population nationally—at 4.36
million, making up one-quarter of FL’s population
9% of national Hispanic population is in Florida
Florida’s Latinos are diverse with large Cuban,
Puerto Rican, Venezuelan and Colombian
populations
Has largest battleground Hispanic population
Puerto Rico’s Outmigration
Largest Since at Least 1980s
Source: Pew Research Center Analysis of American Community Survey (2005-2014), Integrated Public
Use Microdata Series
Cuban Immigration Waves, 1950 to 2013
Source: For 1950-1997, Robert Barde, Susan B. Carter and Richard Sutch, Immigration by Country of
Birth – North America: 1941-1997.” For 1988 and later, the 2003 and 2013 Yearbook of Immigration
Statistics, Department of Homeland Security
Florida’s Growing Hispanic Electorate
In millions
Eligible Voters
Registered Voters
3
2.3
2.5
2
2.4
2.5
1.7
1.8
2014
2016
2.1
1.7
1.8
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.1
1
0.5
Unauthorized
immigrant children
0
2006
2008
Source: Pew Research Center, 2016
2010
2012
Political Party Registration among
Hispanic Voters in Florida
In thousands
Republicans
Democrats
700
513
500
300
662
645
600
400
No Party Affiliation
414
370
446
551
575
513
445
476
373
678
610
479
471
405
313
200
Unauthorized
immigrant children
100
0
2006
2008
2010
Source: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections
2012
2014
2016
Political Party Affiliation
among Cubans is Shifting
Unauthorized
immigrant children
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of 2002, 2006 and 2013 National Surveys of Latinos