The U.S. Election System
and the Campaign of 2012
Danny Hayes
Assistant Professor of Political Science
George Washington University
Washington, DC, USA
Email: [email protected]
The talk
• Timeline of a U.S. presidential election year
• The 3 Ps of Presidential elections and what
they mean for 2012
• Conclusion
Timeline of a U.S. Presidential Election Year
Party Primary Elections
January
June
July
August
September
October
November
Party Primaries
• Candidates compete with fellow party members
in a series of state-by-state elections
• Voters select their party’s presidential nominee
– Republican Mitt Romney defeated 11 other
candidates
– Democrat Barack Obama faced no competition
Timeline of a U.S. Presidential Election Year
Party Conventions
Party Primary Elections
January
June
July
August
September
October
November
Party Conventions
• In August and September, each party holds its
convention
– Formally nominate presidential and vice
presidential candidates
– Generate enthusiasm among supporters
• Mark the official start of the general election
– In reality, the campaign begins months earlier
Barack Obama, Democratic Party
Presidential Candidate
Joe Biden, Democratic Party
Vice Presidential Candidate
VS.
Mitt Romney, Republican Party
Presidential Candidate
Paul Ryan, Republican Party
Vice Presidential Candidate
Timeline of a U.S. Presidential Election Year
Party Conventions
Party Primary Elections
January
June
July
August
September
General Election
October
November
General election
• Candidates travel the country, run television
ads, and participate in 3 debates
• Two goals
– Mobilize their supporters to turn out and vote
– Win over undecided, independent voters
Timeline of a U.S. Presidential Election Year
Party Conventions
Party Primary Elections
January
June
July
August
September
General Election
October
Election Day
November
How the Electoral College Works
• States hold individual elections
• The popular winner in each state is awarded the state’s
“electoral votes”
• Each state is worth a different number of electoral
votes, based on its population. (Texas is worth 38.
Wyoming is worth 3.) There are 538 in all
How the Electoral College Works
• States hold individual elections
• The popular winner in each state is awarded the state’s
“electoral votes”
• Each state is worth a different number of electoral
votes, based on its population. (Texas is worth 38.
Wyoming is worth 3.) There are 538 in all
• To become president, a candidate must win enough
states to gain at least 270 electoral votes
The 3 Ps of U.S. Presidential Elections
• Prosperity
Key Issues in the 2012 Campaign
1. The economy
2. The economy
3. The economy
65
60
1964
1972
1984
1956
55
1996
1988
1948
2004
2000
50
1960
1976
1992
2008
1980
1952
40
45
1968
-2
0
2
4
% Change in GDP
When the economy is moderate or good, the incumbent party wins
The 3 Ps of Presidential Elections
• Prosperity
• Presidential approval
Presidential Approval in Summer before Re-election Campaign
(Gallup Polls, 1972-2012)
Barack Obama (2012)
48
George W. Bush (2004)
Bill Clinton (1996)
George H.W. Bush (1992)
Ronald Reagan (1984)
Jimmy Carter (1980)
Gerald Ford (1976)
Richard Nixon (1972)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percent Approving of President’s Performance
Green = Won | Red = Lost
70
The 3 Ps of Presidential Elections
• Prosperity
• Presidential approval
• Polarization
OBAMA JOB APPROVAL
All Americans
48%
Democrats
89%
Independents
45%
Republicans
8%
Gallup Weekly Tracking Poll, Sept 17-23
Where the race stands today
(HuffPost Pollster Polling Average, January – September 2012)
Obama
Romney
48.8%
44.4%
Conclusion
• To become president, a candidate must win both
his party’s primary and the general election, an
unusually lengthy process
• U.S. presidential elections are strongly influenced
by economic conditions, presidential approval, and
the candidates’ efforts to mobilize their supporters
• Obama has some advantages, but the 2012
election will be close
The U.S. Election System
and the Campaign of 2012
Danny Hayes
Assistant Professor of Political Science
George Washington University
Washington, DC, USA
Email: [email protected]