Amazon Deforestation Revisited
Cattle, Deforestation, and Development in the Amazon: An Economic, Agronomic, and
Environmental Perspective by Merle D. Faminow; Brazil, Forests in the Balance: Challenges of
Conservation with Development by Uma Lele; Virgilio Viana; Adalberto Verissimo; Stephen
Vosti; Karin Perkins; Syed Arif Husain; Estilos de Desarrollo, Deforestacion y Degradacion de
los Bosques de las Tierras Bajas de Bolivia by Pablo Pacheco Balanza ...
Review by: David Kaimowitz
Latin American Research Review, Vol. 37, No. 2 (2002), pp. 221-235
Published by: The Latin American Studies Association
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AMAZON
DEFORESTATION
REVISITED
David Kaimowitz
CenterforInternationalForestryResearch,Bogor,Indonesia
CATTLE,DEFORESTATION, AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE AMAZON: AN ECONOMIC, AGRONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTALPERSPECTIVE. By Merle D.
Faminow. (Wallingford,Conn.: CAB InternationalPublishers, 1998.
Pp. 253. $85.00 cloth.)
BRAZIL,FORESTS IN THE BALANCE: CHALLENGES OF CONSERVATION WITH
Stephen
DEVELOPMENT.ByUma Lele,VirgilioViana,AdalbertoVerissimo,
Vosti,Karin Perkins,and Syed ArifHusain. (Washington,D.C.: World
Bank OperationsEvaluation Department,2000. Pp. 195. $22.00 paper.)
ESTILOS DE DESARROLLO, DEFORESTACION Y DEGRADACION DE LOS BOSQUES DE LAS TIERRAS BAJASDE BOLIVIA. By Pablo Pacheco Balanza. (La
Paz: CenterforInternationalForestryResearch,Centrode Estudios para
el Desarrollo Laboral y Agrario,and Taller de Iniciativas y Estudios
Rurales y de ReformaAgraria,1998. Pp. 389.)
TROPICAL FOREST CONSERVATION: AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE
ALTERNATIVES IN LATIN AMERICA. By Douglas Southgate.(Oxford:
OxfordUniversityPress,1998. Pp. 175. $39.95 cloth.)
FOREST RESOURCE POLICY IN LATINAMERICA.Editedby Kari Keipi. (Wash-
Development Bank, distributedby Johns
ington,D.C.: Inter-American
Hopkins UniversityPress,1999. Pp. 330. $18.50 paper.)
THE ECONOMICS OF DEFORESTATION: THE EXAMPLE OF ECUADOR. BySven
Wunder.(New York:St. Martin's,2000. Pp. 262. $69.95 cloth.)
FLAMES IN THE RAIN FOREST: ORIGINS, IMPACTS, AND ALTERNATIVES TO
AMAZONIAN FIRE. By Daniel C. Nepstad, Adriana G. Moreira,and Ane
A. Alencar.(Brasilia:PilotProgramto ConservetheBrazilianRainforest,
1999. Pp. 161.)
RAINFOREST CITIES: URBANIZATION,DEVELOPMENT, AND GLOBALIZATION
OF THE BRAZILIANAMAZON. By JohnD. Browderand BrianJ.Godfrey.
(New York:Columbia UniversityPress,1997.Pp. 429. $49.50cloth,$19.50
paper.)
in theAmazon has changed
Conventionalwisdom on deforestation
a greatdeal sincetheEarthSummitin Rio de Janeiroin 1992.Back then,the
storylooked simple,thesolutionsseemed clear,and theoutlook appeared
bepromising.Expertsblamed largecattleranchersformostdeforestation,
Research
Reviewvolume37 number2 ? 2002
LatinAmerican
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221
LatinAmericanResearchReview
lievingthattheymade a profitthanksonlyto taxincentives,creditsubsidies,
and land speculation.Observersexpected pasturesto degrade over time
and farmersto abandon them.This implied a lose-lose scenarioin which
taxpayerssubsidized therich,and bustfollowed
suffered,
theenvironment
boom.
The expertsreached similarconclusionsabout small farmers.They
despite large public inreportedthatmany colonistsfailedin theirefforts,
vestmentsin directedsettlementprograms.Once the colonists'slash-andburnsystemsdepletedtheirsoils and weeds overrantheircrops,theywould
have to sell theirland to thelarge ranchersand move on.
Given theforegoinganalysis,expertswere convincedthatifgovernmentsreducedtheircreditsubsidies,taxincentives,and spendingon direct
would decline.Theyexpectedfiscal
settlement
programs,thendeforestation
constraintsand internationalconcernover deforestationto prod governmentsin thatdirection.In fact,theBraziliangovernmentimplementedsome
of the proposed reforms,and just as the expertshad predicted,the counratefellbetween1987and 1991.Many startedtalktry'sannual deforestation
ing about how nontimberforestproducts,sustainabletimberproduction,
and more intensivecrop and livestocksystems
ecotourism,agro-forestry,
could provideprofitableand sustainablealternativesfortheAmazon's inhabitantsthatwould not endangerforests.Everythingappeared on track.
Subsequent eventshave proved thingswere not thatsimple. After
the initial decline, Brazil's rate of deforestationrose slowly but steadily
throughoutthe1990s.Forestclearingin lowland Boliviaalso increased,even
thoughthe governmentdid not subsidize agriculture.Massive forestfires
blightedhuge areas in thelate 1990s.The agriculturalactivitiesthatreplaced
forestsoftenproved moresustainablethanpreviouslybelieved,and clearing foresthelped many small farmersimprovetheirlivelihoods forlong
periods. Logging became much more widespread and intensive.Highly
profitablemechanizedsoybean productionon a large scale spread intothe
regions along the fringesof the Amazon rain forest.Meanwhile, many
"sustainablealternatives"turnedout to be less profitableor more limited
in scope thanoriginallyhoped.
Enteringthe debate were new topics thathad received limitedat(CBD) and theUnited
tention.The signingoftheConventionon Biodiversity
Nations FrameworkConventionon Climate Change (UNFCC) raised the
to compensatecountriesforcurpossibilityofusing internationaltransfers
established
large indigenousterSome
governments
deforestation.
tailing
structural
adjustment,and oil
crisis,
and
areas.
Economic
protected
ritories
that
could
affect
deforestationas
macroeconomic
policies
booms showed
much as agriculturalpolicies. Several countriesgave greatercontrolover
whichchanged
policymakingand budgetsto stateand local governments,
were made. As theAmazon became
theway policiesaffecting
deforestation
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REVIEW
ESSAYS
urban,thelinksbetweenurbantrendsand ruralland use became
increasingly
moresignificant.
This essay will review these shiftsin thinkingas reflectedin eight
recentbooks thatdiscuss deforestationin the Amazon. I will look firstat
and sustainablewithwhethertheland uses thatreplaceforestsareprofitable
out subsidies and thenexaminehow technology,tenure,credit,and roads
and the role of large and small landowners.The essay
affectdeforestation
will analyze nextthepotentialofso-calledsustainableland-usealternatives
The followingsectionslook at loggingand forest
forreducingdeforestation.
fires.Drawingon thepreviousdiscussion,itthenbecomespossibleto assess
who will benefitfromclearingforestsor conservingthem and who may
and
pay the costs.Subsequent sectionswill discuss indigenous territories
protectedareas, macroeconomicissues, decentralization,and urban-rural
interactions.
Several of thebooks under reviewexamineotherissues in addition
and considerregionsoutsidetheAmazon. This reviewwill
to deforestation
concentrateonly on the partsof thesebooks thatfocuson Amazon deforestation.No attemptwill be made to address importantissues such as how
to controlit have affecteddeforestationor
coca productionand the efforts
the role of militaryconflict.This decision reflectsin partnot being able to
in Colombia or Peru. Most ofthe
identifyrecentbooks about deforestation
discussionwill focuson Brazil,Bolivia,and Ecuador.
and Land Speculation
Subsidies,Profits,
in theAmazon:
andDevelopment
MerleFaminow's Cattle,Deforestation,
takes
and Environmental
systematically
Perspective
An Economic,
Agronomic,
on the notionthatcattleranchingin the BrazilianAmazon would not be
in thelongtermwithoutsubsidiesand land speculation.Faminow
profitable
statesthatranchinghas expanded on manyfarmsthatneverreceivedsubsidized creditor tax incentives.He claims thatstudies showing thatbeef
productionwas not profitablein the long termhad methodologicalflaws,
focusedon theleast-efficient
farms,or failedto considerthatrancherswould
learnto managetheirpasturesbetterand cutcostsovertime.CattleDeforestationpresentsstatisticsshowing thataverage real land pricesrose littlebetween 1970and 1996in theAmazon to discounttheidea thatland speculationwas a majorforcebehind pastureexpansion.Faminow argues instead
thatranchersfound it profitableto produce beef in the Amazon because
rapidlyrisingurbanpopulationsbolsteredregionaldemand and hightransportationcosts kept the Amazon regionfromimportingbeef fromsouth
and centralBrazil.Rancherswho managed theirpastureswell did notneed
subsidies to make a profit.Nor did theyhave to abandon theirpastures
afteronlya fewyears.
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LatinAmericanResearchReview
withDevelopment
ofConservation
Brazil,ForestsintheBalance:Challenges
by Uma Lele, VirgilioViana Verissimo,StephenVosti,Karin Perkins,and
Syed ArifHusain reaches similarconclusionsbased largelyon data from
small farmersin Acre and RondOnia.These farmersexpand theirpastures
because it is themostprofitableway to use theirland, notbecause theyreimproved
ceive subsidies or expectcapital gains. Many have significantly
theirincomesover thelast several decades and stayedon theirfarms,thus
belyingthetheorythatmostsmall farmersquicklydepletetheirnaturalreThe authorsalso
sources and move on with littleto show fortheireffort.
citestudiesfromotherregionsin theBrazilianAmazon thatshow thesame
pattern.
butFaminowoverstates
Bothbooksmakefundamentalcontributions,
his case. He failsto acknowledgehow muchcreditsubsidiescontinueto enin Brazil.Accordingto Lele et al., threegovernment
courage deforestation
programsin 1998providedone billionBraziliandollars(reais)forsubsidized
creditin theAmazon, much of it forranching.lWhile Faminow criticizes
otherauthors'use of poor statistics,the land pricedata he uses are almost
certainlyflawed.Even ifitweretruethatrealaverageland pricesroseslowly
(which is quite unlikely),farmerscould stillobtain high returnsfromestablishingpasturesto help secure propertyrightsover land theydid not
previouslyown. Faminow recognizes this point,but his analysis largely
ignoresit.The emphasis on regionalbeefdemand highlightsan important
variablethatmostpreviousauthorshave missed.Nevertheless,Faminow's
own figuresshow thatcattleranchingcontinuedto expand at moreor less
in beef.
the same pace even aftertheregionbecame self-sufficient
Technology,
Tenure,Credit,and Roads
Most ofthebooks underreviewtakean explicitlyeconomicapproach
assumingthatfarmersuse theirresourcesto maximizeprofitand minimize
risk.This assumptionimpliesthatanythingthatmakes convertingforestto
otherland use moreprofitablewill acceleratethatprocess.Thus improving
agriculturaltechnology,providingsecure land tenure,and givingfarmers
betteraccess to creditand marketscan all potentiallyencouragedeforestation.In fact,theyoftendo.
The researchon small farmersin theWesternAmazon citedin Brazil,
techForestsin theBalanceshows thattheadoptionofimprovedcattle-raising
such
deforestation.
will
crops
Adoptingperennial
nologies
probablypromote
these
effect
because
or
fruit
trees
could
have
the
as coffee,cocoa,
opposite
and mostsmallfarmersare labor-and
cropsare labor-and capital-intensive
To adopt perennials,these farmersoftenhave to concapital-constrained.
1. This figureamounted to somewherebetween 500 millionand 1 billionU.S. dollars. The
exact amountis uncertainbecause Brazil devalued its currencyin the middle of theyear.
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REVIEW
ESSAYS
centratetheircapital and labor on a small area, potentiallyleaving the remainderof the farmsas forest.But Amazonian farmersare oftendeterred
fromadopting perennialsby labor bottlenecks,risk considerations,high
costs, and technicalproblems.Even when they do adopt
transportation
such crops,theymay decide to investany profitsin livestockinsteadofexpanding theirperennialcrops because producinglivestockis simpler,less
risky,easy to market,and requiresless labor.Making creditavailable can
thatkeep themfrominvesthelp smallfarmersovercomecapitalconstraints
ing in cattleranching,even ifit is not subsidized. Similarly,Pablo Pacheco
de los bosquesde las
y degradacio'n
deforestacio'n
Balanza's Estilosde desarrollo,
tierrasbajasde Boliviamentionsthatimprovedsoybean varietiesmade soybean productionmore profitablein Santa Cruz and contributedto forest
clearingin orderto plantsoybeans.
AssessAn Economic
ForestConservation:
Douglas Southgate'sTropical
inLatinAmericaalso recognizesthedangersoftechnomentoftheAlternatives
logicalchangein agriculture.Southgatearguesneverthelessthatultimately,
increaseswill depress agriculturalprices,whichwill discourproductivity
age farmersfromproducingcropsor livestockon themarginalsoils in much
of the Amazon. While theoreticallyplausible, Southgate'swork provides
littleevidence to demonstratethat this scenario is likelyto occur in the
Amazon, except for one regressionmodel fromEcuador showing that
municipalitieswithhighercropyieldstend to have less deforestation.
Carlos Jaramilloand Thomas Kelly contributea nice essay to Forest
ResourcePolicyin LatinAmerica,edited by Kari Keipi. Theirpiece makes it
clearthatprovidingsecureland-tenurerightsin theAmazon is unlikelyto
Agriculturalland uses continueto provide a higher
reduce deforestation.
returnthanmaintainingland in forest,and as long as thatremainsthecase,
farmerswill clearforests.Reducingtenureinsecuritymay actuallyencourage deforestationin thatfarmerswill be more inclinedto make the longterminvestmentthatforestclearingimpliesiftheydo not fearlosing conTheExample
ofDeforestation:
trolovertheland. Sven Wunder's TheEconomics
of Ecuadorand Brazil,Forestsin theBalancebasically comes to the same
conclusion.Lele et al. also notethatprovidingland titlesmay help farmers
get access to thecredittheyneed to financeforestconversion.
ThatConserveForests
SustainableLand-UseAlternatives
Even ifagriculturalland uses are profitablein thelong run in large
areas of the Amazon, it mightstillbe possible to convincelandowners to
maintaintheirland in forestifforestmanagementcould providethemwith
similarreturns.Many internationalagencies,nongovernmentalorganiza(toa lesserextent)have pinnedtheirhopes ofachievtions,and governments
ing thisgoal on nontimberforestproducts,sustainableforestmanagement
fortimber,and ecotourism.The prospects,however,are not encouraging.
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LatinAmericanResearchReview
Southgate'sTropical
ForestConservation
devotesthreechaptersto nontimberproducts,"environmentally
sound" timberproduction,and naturebased tourismrespectively.In each case, he comes up with discouraging
results.Withrareexceptions,harvestingnontimberproductsis not financiallyrewardingforthose involved. Most nontimberproductmarketsare
thin,and commercialextractionmay depletetheresource.Once an area has
been logged,landownerscan usually gethigherreturnsfromconvertingit
to otheruses ratherthanleaving it as forestuntilthetimecomes fora second timberrotation(althoughnot always). Most touristsdemand a fairly
high level of amenities.This expectationconfinestheirvisitsto a limited
numberoflocations(and forests)withthenecessaryinfrastructure
and ensuresthatmanyoftherewardsgo to firmsbased in capitalcitiesor foreign
countries.
Keipi's ForestResourcePolicyin LatinAmericaand theLele et al. book
provideevidencethatsupportsmanyofSouthgate'sarguments.
Theseworks
recognizethegreatobstaclesexistingforsustainableforestmanagementin
theAmazon. Althoughbothvolumesfavorexperimenting
withcertification
as a means of increasingthe returnsfromenvironmentally
sound timber
production,theyare not excessivelyoptimisticabout theprobableresults.
TheRoleofLogging
One reason thatlogging has startedto receive greaterattentionin
in theAmazon is thatit has risendramatidiscussionsabout deforestation
cally.Accordingto Lele et al., between1976 and 1998,timberproductionin
theBrazilianAmazon multipliedfrom4.5 millioncubicmetersto 28 million
cubic meters(p. 24). Logging also increased rapidlyin Bolivia after1985,
althoughit has startedto come down again recently.
Whilemanyforesters
liketo counterpoiseagriculture
and timberharvestingas alternativelong-termland uses, most of the literaturereviewed
heresuggeststhatloggingin theAmazon is generallyonlytheinitialstage
in a processthatultimatelyleads to completeforestconversion.Sometimes
the same individuals harvesttimberand farm.Often,logging operations
provide theroads and capital thatfarmersneed to develop livestockoperations,and intensiveloggingusing poor managementtechniquesgreatly
increasestheriskofaccidentalforestfires.The mainexceptionsin thisregard
are logging of mahogany and othervaluable timbersin locations distant
frommarketsand theagriculturalfrontier
as well as some riparianlogging.
In thesecases,loggingoftentakesplace in areas thatare stilltoo inaccessible
to attractfarmersand land speculators.The Lele et al. and Southgatebooks
describethese processes in Brazil. Wunder analyzes a similardynamicin
highlandEcuador.
The Brazilianand Boliviangovernmentshave set aside certainpublic lands as permanentproductionforestswhereloggerscan harvesttimber
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ESSAYS
but farmerscannotclaim propertyrightsover the land or convertthe forestto agriculture.Pacheco's Estilosdedesarrollo
on Bolivia and theLele et al.
reporton Brazilpointout theweak regulatorycapacityofthepublicforestry
in thosecountries,but itis probablystilltoo earlyto determine
institutions
whetherthenational-production
foreststrategywill succeed.
Fire
Accidental
Especiallydryconditionslinkedto theEl NinioSouthernOscillation
in early1998contributed
to massiveforestfiresin Roraima,Brazil,and other
partsoftheAmazon Basin. This outbreakbroughtwidespread attentionto
the problemof unintentionalforestfiresin the Amazon. The incidenceof
such fireshas been growingsteadily,althoughthe situationtakes on dramaticproportionsonlyin drieryears.Forestfireshave always been a part
oftheAmazon. Butseveralfactorshave multipliedtheriskoffire:new roads
thatmakeforestsmoreaccessible,extensiveloggingthatmakesforestsdrier
and leaves behind large amountsof flammablematerials,and burningfor
pastureand cropmanagementin nearbyfields.Once a forestburnsthefirst
time,itbecomes much morelikelyto burna second timeand suffersevere
damage.
Daniel Nepstad and hiscolleaguesat theWoods Hole ResearchCenter
can takemuchofthecreditforbringingthetruemagnitudeofthisproblem
to theworld's attention.Theyhave shown thatsurfacefiresburnhuge areas
each year,emitlargeamountsofcarbonintotheatmosphere,and eventually
lead to completeforestdestruction.Yet thesefiresare not reflectedin currentdeforestation
estimatesbecause theydo notimmediatelyeliminatethe
forestcanopy.
Nepstad,Adriana Moreira,and Ane Alencarprovidea generaloverview offorestfiresin theAmazon inFlamesintheRainForest:Origins,
Impacts,
to AmazonianFire.The book also presentsthe resultsof a
and Alternatives
1996 surveyof farmers,a model forpredictingwhere fireswill strike,and
recommendations.
The authorsclassifyfiresintofourtypes.In thefirsttwo types,farmers deliberatelyset thefireseitherto deforestan area or to manage existing
pastureor crops.In thesecond two types,no one intendedto set fireto the
area,whichmaybe eitheragriculturalland or forest.Accordingto theirsurofthearea burnedon or nearfarmsin 1996fellintothe
vey results,one-fifth
fourthcategory,forestthatcatchesfireby accident.Perhaps more surprising,thearea offorestburnedby accidentwas 50 percentlargerthanthearea
offorestthatfarmersburnedto clear forestdeliberately.
Fully47 percentofthearea burnedinvolvedpasturesand cropsthat
caught fireby accident. Such firesrepresenta particularlyperverse side
effectof the widespread intentionaluse of firein the Amazon and cause
tensof millionsof dollars in damage a year.They also discourage farmers
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LatinAmericanResearchReview
frominvestingin treecrops and infrastructure
forintensivelivestockproductionbecause treecrops and wooden structuresare susceptibleto fire.
Populistand Corporatist
Frontiers
None of the books under review provide a reliableestimateof the
relativeimportanceof large and small farmersin Amazon deforestation.
Faminowand Lele et al. emphasize theroleofsmall farmersin forestclearingbut admitthattheylack solid data.
DeJohnBrowderand BrianGodfrey'sRainforest
Cities:Urbanization,
velopment,
and Globalization
oftheBrazilianAmazonalso lacks data on this
issue. Yet it makes thecrucialpointthatlarge and small producersare not
randomlydistributed
in theAmazon.Smallfarmersand otherkindsofsmallscale producers dominate in certainareas, which the authors referto as
includemuchofthearea along
"populistfrontiers."
Typicalpopulistfrontiers
theTransamazonHighway in Para and thestateofRondonia.Large ranchers,loggers,miningcompanies,and otherwealthyinterestsare hegemonic
in otherareas,whichtheauthorscall "corporatist
frontiers."
SouthPara and
mostofMato Grosso constituteprimeexamples ofcorporatistfrontiers.
Throughland-tenure,credit,and infrastructure
policies,federaland
stategovernmentshave played majorrolesin defininginitiallywhetheran
area becomes a populist or corporatistfrontier.
Once an area goes in one
directionor another,it tends to remainthatway because land-marketdynamics, the local politicalbalance of forces,and the types of production
systemsthatdevelop all fostera highdegreeofinertia.Nevertheless,more
populist agrariansystemsoftenemergeon the outskirtsof the corporatist
and land concentration
frontiers,
occursnear marketsand roads. In certain
realitiesconverge
areas,such as partsofSouthPara,populistand corporatist
head on, oftenleading to violentconflict.
In Estilosdedesarrollo,
Pacheco describesa similardichotomybetween
in lowland Bolivia. Large soybean growand
frontiers
corporatist
populist
ers controlmost of theland, productiveresources,and local politicsin the
expansion zone to the east of the Rio Grande in the departmentof Santa
Cruz. A similarbut more diversifiedgroup holds sway around the cityof
Santa Cruz in the so-called integratedzone, while large ranchersrule in
much of easternSanta Cruz and theBeni wetlands.In contrast,in thecolonization zones that circle the cityof Santa Cruz to the west, north,and
northeastas well as in thecolonizationzones ofCochabamba and northern
La Paz, thegeneraleconomicand politicaldynamicrevolvesaround small
farmers.
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ESSAYS
and Conservation
ofDeforestation
Costsand Benefits
The previousdiscussionimpliesmoredistinctcostsand benefitsfor
Amazon agricultureand foreststhan most analysts posited in the early
long-termbenefitsforboth
1990s.Clearingforestprovidesmoresignificant
small and largefarmersthanpreviouslyclaimed.While subsidies continue
toadd tothosebenefitsat taxpayers'expense,cattleranchingand agriculture
would be profitablein many instanceseven withoutsuch subsidies. Most
otherland-use alternativesthatrequirepermanentforestcover or at least
are moreprofitablethanforestclearingonlyin a limitedsetof
agro-forestry
circumstances.Moreover,theyfacenumerousobstaclesfortheiradoption.
existsbetweenpovertyreductionand
a cleartrade-off
On populistfrontiers,
Althoughitis harderto arguethatsocietybeneconservation.
environmental
fitsfromlarge-scaleextensiveranchingthatproduces littleadded value or
employment,rancherswould clearlybe worse offiftheywere not allowed
to clear additional forest.Agriculturalpolicies thatfavoreconomic developmentin theAmazon such as promotingimprovedtechnologies,providing greateraccess to credit,and givingfarmerssecure propertyrightsall
appear likelyto encourage greaterdeforestation.The only real "win-win
situation"seems to be eliminationofaccidentalfires,whichdestroyforests
and produce large economiclosses.
byMarcDourojeanni
Brazil,ForestsintheBalanceand thecontributions
and Ramon Lopez in theKeipi volume all emphasize thatwhile maintaining large areas of the Amazon as forestsprovides global benefitssuch as
biodiversityconservationand lower carbonemissions,it also impliessubtheyargue thattheonlyway to
stantialcostsforfarmers.Given thatreality,
convincecountriesand individuallandownersto conserveAmazon forests
is to pay themto do so. Potentialsources forsuch paymentsinclude the
establishmentof the Global EnvironmentalFacility(GEF), the possible incorporationof naturalforestsinto the Clean Development Mechanism of
theUnitedNations FrameworkConventionon ClimateChange (UNFCC),
"debt-for-nature
swaps," and fundingforconservationbybilateralaid agencies and internationalNGOs. Nevertheless,it remainsto be seen whether
thesemechanismswill transferenough paymentand whetherthatmoney
enoughto protecta largeportionofAmazon forests.
will be used efficiently
the only factorthatwill continueto protect
Withoutlargetransfers,
As
mostoftheAmazon forestfortheforeseeablefutureis itsinaccessibility.
long as no one builds roads, it will probablyremaintoo costlyto convert
largeareastopastureorengagein intensiveloggingin muchoftheAmazon.2
in the BrazilAs Lele et al. note,more than80 percentof the deforestation
kilometersoffour
ian Amazon between1991and 1994occurredwithinfifty
2. Logging formahoganyand othervaluable timbermay stillbe profitableeven in remote
locations,but it probablywill not lead to completedeforestation.
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LatinAmericanResearchReview
have exmajor road networks(p. 42). For this reason, environmentalists
pressedmajorconcernabout recentgovernmentplans to constructand improve roads and portsin severalAmazonian countries.
and Protected
Areas
IndigenousTerritories
Indigenous peoples constitutean importantgroup in the Amazon
thatthe previous discussion did not take into account.Accordingto Julio
Tresierra'sessay in theKeipi volume,theAmazon Basin houses about one
million indigenous persons (p. 136). These indigenous groups generally
practiceproductionsystemsmore compatiblewith the long-termconservation of forestcover and oftenhave strongincentivesto avoid encroachmentby outsiders.
Thanksto thepoliticalmobilizationoftheindigenouspeoples themselves and internationalpressure,the Amazon Basin countriesin recent
Lele
years have demarcatedor titledhuge areas as indigenousterritories.
et al. claim that as of July1999, Brazil had demarcated 352 indigenous
more territories
territoriescovering760,000square kilometers.Sixty-four
covering213,000square kilometerswerebeingdemarcated(p. 68). The total
area involvedis almostas largeas all ofBolivia.In addition,Tresierrareports
thatby 1997,Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru had set aside another
263,000square kilometersforindigenousethnicgroups (p. 136).
It would nonethelessbe a mistaketo overlyromanticizetheenvironmentalcommitment
oftheseindigenousgroupsorto overestimatetheirand
theirallies' capacityto avoid outside encroachmenton theirlands. Indigenous tribeshave oftenprovedwillingto allow loggersto harvesttimberfrom
theirlands forminimalcompensation.Many of the territoriesare huge,
sparselypopulated,and hard to move around in. Thus outsiderscan move
in withoutprovokingimmediateconflictswith the indigenous landowners. Even so, thewillingnessof nationalgovernmentsto recognizeindigein the Amazon clearlyconstitutesa major
nous claims to large territories
in
in theregion.In thiscase, social developforest
conservation
forward
step
mentand forestconservationmay go hand in hand.
devotedto nationalparks,biologicalreserves,and
The areas formally
othertypesofprotectedareas have also grownrapidlyin theAmazon Basin
over the last decade. National governmentshave foundit beneficialto establishlarge protectedareas in isolated partsof theAmazon because such
actionsappeal to internationalagencies and domesticpublic opinionwithout costingmuch in termsof moneyor politicalopposition.Most of these
areas have minimalinfrastructure
or personnel.Accordingto Lele et al.,
Amazon parks average onlyone fieldagentper everysix thousandsquare
kilometersofpark (p. 51).
The real questionis whatwill happen when access to theseareas improves and bringspressureon the parks as a result.In some cases where
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NGOs have manand environmental
thisprocesshas occurred,governments
aged theprotectedareas moreactivelyand giventhemgreaterresourcesin
response.In othercases, theyhave not. While recognizingthe difficulties
to the
protectedareas face in theAmazon, Lele et al. and the contributors
Keipi volumeall professmoderateoptimismaboutforestconservationin the
parks.One wonders,however,to what extentsuch optimismreflectsmore
Development
the officialpostureof the World Bank and Inter-American
Bank(whichsponsoredthesevolumes)ratherthanrigorousappraisalsofthe
facts.
and Oil Booms
Structural
Adjustment
thatcharacterizedSouthAmerThe greatmacroeconomicinstability
farmorethanmost
Amazon deforestation
ica in the1980sand 1990saffected
observersimagine.At one timeor anotherduringthatperiod,practically
all theAmazon Basin countriesexperiencedeconomiccrisis,highinflation
rates,and structuraladjustmentprograms.But therewere also periods of
oil, mining,soybean,and coca or cocaine booms and rapid influxesof foreign capital in the formof loans and directforeigninvestment.While the
definitiveaccount of the interactionbetween macroeconomicsand deforestationin Brazil remainsto be written,Pacheco and Wunder have produced exemplaryanalyses of theselinksin the cases of Bolivia and Ecuador,respectively.
priorto 1985,Bolivia had
As Pacheco recountsin Estilosdedesarrollo,
That resultwas generatedby a combinationof
low ratesof deforestation.
costs,a small domesticmarketforlowland foods and
high transportation
products,an economyand politicalsystemcenteredaroundhighagricultural
land mining,and a governmenttoo poor to investin subsidizinglowland
agriculture.Small farmers,many of whom lived in or near governmentsponsored or -directedsettlementprojectsor grew coca in the Chapare
region of Cochabamba, accounted formuch of the limiteddeforestation
thatdid occur.
This situationchanged radicallyfollowingtheimplementationof a
severestructuraladjustmentprogrambegun in 1985.The Boliviangovernwhich stimulatedthe exportof soymentsharplydevalued the currency,
beans and timber,and limitedcompetitionfromagriculturalimportsfor
lowland farmers.It also promotedsoybean productionby building new
roads in Santa Cruz withsupportfromtheWorldBank and by negotiating
a free-tradeagreementwith the otherAndean countriesthatgave Bolivia
access to thosecountries'soybeanmarkets.While cuttingback
preferential
spending on small farmcolonization projects,the governmentgave out
extensiveland grantsto large farmers.Annual deforestationratessoared,
loggingexpanded rapidly,and largemechanizedsoybeanfarmersreplaced
small farmersas themain cause of deforestation.
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LatinAmericanResearchReview
Sven Wunder
ofDeforestation,
In analyzingEcuador in TheEconomics
looks specificallyat the impact on deforestationof the oil boom of the
1980s,which was accompanied by an additional influxin capital in the
formofloans. The generalpublic tendsto thinkabout oil and mineralproductionas having a negativeeffecton forests:the roads and in-migration
associated with these activitiesfrequentlylead to forestdestruction,and
some forestmay be lost directlyas a resultof miningor drillingforoil. In
theindirecteffects
ofoil and miningon exchangerates,government
reality,
revenues,nationalconsumptionpatterns,labor migration,and othervariables oftenaffectforestsmorethanthe activitiesthemselvesand theinfrastructureand employmentassociated withthem.
Wunder points out thatoil revenues and the foreignloans thatoil
discoveriesmade possible increasedthevalue of the Ecuadorian currency,
whichin turnfavoredthedevelopmentofnontradablessuch as urbanconstructionand servicesover tradableslike agricultureand forestproducts.
The literaturerefersto such an effectas "Dutch disease" because itwas first
identifiedin thecontextofproblemsfacedby theDutch economyresulting
froman increasein naturalgas exports.
because it
One would expectDutch disease to reduce deforestation
activitiestypiturnsthetermsoftradeaway fromagriculturaland forestry
cally involved in deforestationand generallypromotesruralto urban migration.Wunderconcludes thatthese effectswere in factpresentin Ecuaoccurredthanmighthave happened as a result.
dor,and less deforestation
in theEasternAmazon regionactuallyroseduring
Yetoveralldeforestation
the oil boom. The governmentspenta notable share of its newly acquired
revenue fromoil and loans to build roads and sponsor agriculturalcolonizationprojectsnear forestedareas,and therapidlygrowingurban populationdevotedpartofitshigherincomestobuyingbeefand otherfoodstuffs
fromthelowlands. Tensionsalong theborderwithPeru led theEcuadorian
governmentto promotemigrationto thatarea forgeopoliticalreasons.Oil
turnedout to be majorin the
drilling'smoredirecteffectson deforestation
Ecuadorian case because much of thedrillingoccurredin previouslyinaccessibletropicalforestregionsthatwererelativelyclose tothehighlandpopulation centers.These dynamicsovershadowed the Dutch disease effects,
and forestclearingincreasedcorrespondingly.
and theUrbanAmazon
Decentralization
Two finaltrendsthatdeservementionin any discussionofAmazon
deforestationare decentralizationand urbanization.The new Brazilian
constitutionapproved in 1998 greatlyincreasedthe powers and revenues
of stateand municipal governments.Federal fiscaltransfersto municipal
governmentsin the BrazilianAmazon have convertedthe municipalities
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ESSAYS
intoa majoreconomicand politicalforce.Now local governmentsareby far
the largestsingle employerin most Amazon municipalities,and the fact
thatmost municipal income comes fromfederaltransfersplaces themin
theenviable positionofbeing able to distributebenefitswithouthavingto
tax.The combinationofthe1994Ley de ParticipacionPopular and the1995
Ley de DecentralizacionAdministrativahad a similarimpact in lowland
Bolivia. Colombia and Venezuela also went throughsignificantprocesses
of decentralization.
The books under review divergesomewhat in theirconclusionsas
in theAmazon. Lele et al.
to how decentralizationwill affectdeforestation
takethemostnegativeview in Brazil,Forestsin theBalance.Theyfollowprevious WorldBank publicationsin predictingthatincreasedlocal influence
agriculturalcredit,land tenure,and regulatoryisover road construction,
Theyalso
sues is likelyto favoreliteinterestsand encouragedeforestation.
argue thatbecause thecostsof conservationare largelylocal and thebenefitslargelynationaland global,puttingpower in thehands oflocal authorities will generallyresultin less supportforconservationand sustainable
forestmanagementand greaterpressureforroad buildingand subsidized
credit.These authorsalso stressthatlargeranchersand loggerscontrolmany
ofthestateand municipalgovernmentsin theBrazilianAmazon, although
theyacknowledgethesituationin Acre and Amapa differssomewhat.Lele
but antiet al. anticipatethattheseelitegroupswill be not only anti-forest
indigenousand anti-smallfarmer.
Browderand Godfreyas well as Pacheco reachmore nuanced conCitiessuggestthatlocal governments
clusions.The coauthorsof Rainforest
differ.
The formermay be moreinterin populist and corporatistfrontiers
ested in supportingsmall farmersand providingpublic employmentthan
thelatter.Browderand Godfreydo notaddressdirectlyhow thisorientation
Buttotheextentthatlargecattleranchersand mechwillaffect
deforestation.
anized grainproducers(ratherthansmall producers)clearmostforest,this
supportforsmall farmersmay lead to lower aggregatedeforpreferential
estation.Pacheco findspromisingelementsin the1996Ley Forestal,which
attributednew responsibilitiesforforestmanagementto municipal govHe admitsthatitremainsunclearwhethermunicipalgovernments
ernments.
will prove morewillingor able to manage foreststhanthecentralBolivian
governmenthas been, but he argues thattheyshould be given the opportunityand resourcesto do so.
The urbanizationoftheAmazon is mostapparentin Brazilbutis also
Cities,
occurringin theothercountriesin theregion.Accordingto Rainforest
58 percentof the population of Brazil's Amazon region in 1991 lived in
of
citiesor townswithmorethanfivethousandinhabitants(p. 2). Two-fifths
those lived in Belem and Manaus, while the remainderlived in 131 small
and medium-sizedtownsand cities(p. 7). In Bolivia,morethan60 percent
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LatinAmericanResearchReview
of those who moved to a new region in the lowlands between 1987 and
1990 actuallywent to the cityof Santa Cruz ratherthanto the agricultural
or otherareas (Pacheco,p. 258).
frontier
The new urbanAmazon castsitsshadow on land use in thesurroundCitiesshows thatmany urban
ing rural areas in various ways. Rainforest
dwellersown rurallandholdings,oftenforspeculativeor semi-recreational
purposes,and are much morelikelyto use themin ways thatrequirelittle
urbandwellerswho owned rural
oftheninety-eight
supervision.One-fifth
lands surveyedby Browderand Godfreyin Rolim de Moura, Rondonia,
produced nothingat all on theirland. In contrast,everyone ofthefifty-six
ruraldwellers theyinterviewedused theirland forsome productivepurpose (p. 315).
thecreationand
As Faminow,Pacheco,and Wunderall demonstrate,
growthofurbanareasin theAmazon has engenderednew local and regional
marketsforlivestockproducts,timber,and certainagriculturalcrops. Because most agriculturalgoods produced in theAmazon Basin as a whole
continueto be sold withintheregion,changesin consumptionpatternscan
production.Given
ofagricultural
influencepricesand hencetheprofitability
thatlivestockproductsand timberbothhave highlypositiveincomeelasticitiesin theAmazon, as incomesrise,demand fortheseproductswill probably grow even morerapidly.
Conclusions
The good news comes fromvarioussources.Small farmerswho clear
forestto growlivestockand cropsin theAmazon oftenfarebetterforlonger
periods thanmany expertshad previouslyimagined.Indigenous peoples
have made progressin gettinggovernmentsto recognizetheirterritorial
rights.Subsidiesforlargeranchershave notdisappearedbutprobablyhave
declinedand certainlyhave become less politicallyacceptable.Politicalsupportfordoing somethingabout unintentionalforestfiresis slowly growin Brazil.The international
communityhas begun to accept
ing,particularly
theconceptofpayingforsome ofthebiodiversityand carbonsequestration
itreceivesfromtheAmazon, even thoughactionhas lagged behindtherhetoric.Governmentshave establishedmanynew protectedareas,and certain
stateand municipalgovernmentsare activelyseekingways to manage their
in thevolumesby Lele etal.,byNepstad,Moreira,
forestsbetter.As reflected
bankshave become much
and
edited
and Alencar,
by Keipi,themultilateral
at
in
more sophisticated analyzing deforestation, least in theory.Finally,
forestcontinuesto cover a largemajorityof theAmazon region.
The bad news is thatdeforestationand forestdegradationare both
on the rise,in some cases rapidlyso, and few real win-winsolutionshave
in Brazil,
investments,
particularly
been foundoutthere.New transportation
could greatlyaggravate the problemin coming years. Most policies that
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ESSAYS
promotedevelopmentbased on agricultureand forestryin the Amazon
continuestolead tolowMuch deforestation
willalso promotedeforestation.
value activitiesthatmostlybenefita small numberofwealthyindividuals.
Taxpayerscontinueto subsidizeforestclearing,and despiteFaminow'spropurelyspeculative forestclearingprobablycontestationto the contrary,
tinues. Rapidly growingurban marketsin the Amazon will continueto
stimulatelivestockand timberproductionthere.In some circumstances,
decentralizationmay make it harderforthe internationalcommunityand
public opinion in the more developed regions of Brazil and the Andean
countriesto influenceoutcomeson the ground.Many protectedareas and
existonly on paper. While it is probable thatthe inindigenousterritories
ternationalbenefitsfromcarbon sequestrationand biodiversityconservationthatcould be achieved by conservingforestsmay outweighthebenefitsof using those forestsforotherpurposes, few solid mechanismshave
developed thatallow thewinnersto compensatethelosers.
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