TRADE IN VALUE ADDED: UNITED KINGDOM The international fragmentation of production in global value chains (GVCs) challenges the way we look at the global economy. Today, “what you do” - the activities a firm or country is involved in - matters more for growth and employment than “what you sell” - the products that make up final sales or exports. Understanding how GVCs work and how they affect economic performance is essential, as is determining which policies help derive the greatest benefits, and reduce the risks. The OECD-WTO Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database facilitates analysis of GVCs by measuring trade in value-added terms to generate new insights about the commercial relations among economies and the process of value creation. Drawing on the third version of the TiVA database, this note describes the United Kingdom’s trade patterns in valueadded terms, with a view to informing policy debates in a range of areas, including trade, innovation, and investment. Accompanying this note is a User Guide designed to assist interpretation and provide context to the indicators presented: http://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/TiVA_2015_Guide_to_Country_Notes.pdf Key findings The foreign content of UK exports rebounded to 22.9% in 2011 from the crisis low of 18.8% in 2009, the UK’s highest rate for which TiVA data are available. The export orientation of UK manufacturers also reached a new high in 2011, with over half (52.5%) of manufacturing domestic value added driven by foreign final demand. Around threequarters of the value-added in the Basic metals (78.9 %) and ICT & electronics (73.8%) industries was exported in 2011. Direct exports of business services generated the greatest source (both direct and upstream) of domestic value added in 2011, accounting for 13.9% of the total value added of exports, with finance & insurance coming in second at 11.1%, Nearly two-thirds (63.5%) of value added exports reflected services content in 2011 Significant imports of Basic metals (60.6%), Machinery parts (48.8%) and Motor vehicle parts (45.6%) were used in exports. The role of foreign and domestic value added in exports The foreign content of UK exports rebounded to 22.9% in 2011 from the crisis low of 18.8% in 2009, the UK’s highest rate for which TiVA data are available. Figure 1. Foreign value added content of gross exports by country percent, 2008, 2009, and 2011 (right insert = time series for United Kingdom) 2011 2009 2008 70% 1995 40% 2008 2009 2010 2011 50% 2005 60% 2000 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 30% 20% IDN BRA RUS JPN AUS NZL USA ZAF NOR NLD CHL CHE GBR IND CAN ISR GRC FRA DEU ITA TUR AUT ESP MEX SWE CHN PRT POL ISL DNK FIN BEL EST SVN IRL KOR CZE SVK LUX 0% HUN 10% Of the UK’s total exports of domestic value-added in 2011, 63.7% reflected exports of intermediates, higher than in 2009 (59.9%), in part reflecting the rebound in GVCs that were disproportionally affected by the crisis, and higher than in 1995 (58.3%), (Figure 2). The UK’s total exports of domestic value added share in intermediates in 2011 was higher than the OECD average of 61.5%. Figure 2. Domestic value added content of gross exports by end-use category by country percent, 1995 and 2011 Intermediate goods and services 2011 Final goods and services 2011 Total 1995 Intermediate goods and services 1995 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% BRA IDN RUS AUS JPN USA NZL NOR ZAF NLD CHL CHE GBR IND CAN GRC ISR FRA TUR DEU ITA AUT ESP SWE MEX POL CHN PRT ISL DNK BEL FIN EST SVN KOR IRL CZE SVK LUX 0% HUN 10% 1 Direct exports by Business services generated the greatest source (both direct and upstream) of domestic value added in 2011, accounting for 13.9% of the total value added of exports. The next three most important industries were Finance & insurance at 11.1%, Wholesale, retail & hotels at 9.3% (partly reflecting tourism and upstream distribution services to exporters), and Chemicals at 6.2% (Figure 3a). The large foreign contributions were in the Chemicals and Motor vehicles industries, which together contributed 5.2% of UK total exports. The foreign content of exports increased across nearly all sectors between 1995 and 2011. The three industries with the highest foreign value added shares in UK exports in 2011 were Coke & petroleum (56.1%), Basic metals (51.7%), and Motor vehicles (44.4%), compared to 24.7%, 27.0% and 30.3% in 1995 (Figure 3b). Figure 3a. UK industry share of domestic and foreign value content of gross exports percent of total gross exports, 2011 Finance & insurance Business services Other services Finance & insurance Business services Other services Transport & telecoms Wholesale, retail & hotels Other manufactures Other transport Motor vehicles Electrical machinery ICT & electronics FVA contribution to gross exports, 2011 Machinery Fabricated metals Basic metals Non-metallic minerals Rubber & plastics Chemicals Coke & petroleum Textiles & apparel Food products Mining Agriculture 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Wood & paper DVA contribution to gross exports, 2011 Figure 3b. UK foreign value added content of gross exports 1995 and 2011 FVA share of gross exports, 2011 FVA share of gross exports, 1995 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Total Transport & telecoms Wholesale, retail & hotels Other manufactures Other transport Motor vehicles Electrical machinery ICT & electronics Machinery Fabricated metals Basic metals Non-metallic minerals Rubber & plastics Chemicals Wood & paper Textiles & apparel Food products Mining Agriculture 0% Coke & petroleum 10% 2 Of the total value of UK imports of intermediate products and services, 37.7% was subsequently embodied in exports, slightly below the OECD average (39.3%) but above the share in 2009 (31.6%) (Figure 4),. The products with the highest import shares were Basic metals (60.6%), Machinery (48.8%) and Motor vehicles (45.6%). Figure 4. UK imported intermediate inputs used for exports, by import category percent of intermediate imports, 2008, 2009, and 2011 2011 2009 2008 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Total Other services Business services Finance & insurance Transport & telecoms Utilities Wholesale, retail & hotels Other manufactures Other transport Motor vehicles Electrical machinery ICT & electronics Machinery Fabricated metals Basic metals Non-metallic minerals Rubber & plastics Chemicals Coke & petroleum Wood & paper Textiles & apparel Food products Mining 0% Agriculture 10% The destination of domestic value added produced in the United Kingdom Of the total domestic value added produced by the manufacturing sector in United Kingdom, over half (52.5%) reflected foreign final demand in 2011, significantly up on 2009 (45.3%) and 2008 (44.9%), and above the OECD average (41.9%) (Figure 5). Figure 5. Manufacturing domestic value added in foreign final demand by country, percent of total manufacturing value added, 2008, 2009, and 2011 (left insert = time series for United Kingdom) 2011 2008 60% 2008 2009 2010 2011 70% 2005 80% 2009 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 90% 1995 100% 50% 40% 30% 20% LUX IRL HUN SVK ISL SVN EST CZE CHE ISR SWE AUT DNK FIN CHL KOR POL DEU BEL PRT GBR CAN NOR ESP FRA ITA RUS NZL NLD MEX ZAF GRC TUR JPN USA IND AUS CHN BRA 0% IDN 10% Note: Final demand excludes inventories: See also http://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/TiVA_2015_Guide_to_Country_Notes.pdf 3 At the total economy level, 24.0 % of UK domestic value added was driven by foreign final demand, but significant differences exist across industries. Basic metals (78.9%,) and ICT & electronics (73.8%) had the highest level of export orientation in United Kingdom, with the lowest shares in Agriculture (18.6%) and Business services (23.8%) (Figure 6). Figure 6. UK domestic value added in foreign final demand, percent of value added by industry, 2008, 2009, and 2011 Total Total Manufactures Business services Finance & insurance Transport & telecoms Wholesale, retail & hotels Other manufacturing Other transport Motor vehicles Electrical machinery 2008 ICT & electronics Machinery Fabricated metals Basic metals Non-metallic minerals Rubber & plastics 2009 Chemicals Wood & paper Textiles & apparel Food products Mining Agriculture Coke & petroleum 2011 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Note: Final demand excludes inventories: See also http://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/TiVA_2015_Guide_to_Country_Notes.pdf In gross terms and value added terms the UK’s top three trading partners were the United States, Germany and France. In value-added terms the share of exports going to the US (17.9%) was higher than in gross terms (15.0%), reflecting UK value-added embodied exports of European partners. For imports, in valueadded terms, the United States was the most important source, displacing Germany (in first place on a gross basis), in part reflecting the relatively high domestic value-added content of US exports (Figure 7, bottom). Figure 7. UK exports to and imports from main partner countries percent of total gross and value added exports and imports, 2011 Gross exports Domestic value added embodied in foreign final demand 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% USA DEU FRA ESP Gross imports ITA CHN JPN NLD IRL IND JPN NLD Foreign value added in domestic final demand 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% USA DEU CHN FRA ESP NOR ITA IND 4 Considering only exports of intermediate goods and services in value-added terms, the UK’s major export destinations in 2011 were: the United States (14.2%), Germany (11.2%), Ireland (6.7%), and France (5.9%) (Figure 8). Figure 8. UK domestic value added embodied in intermediate exports to main partner countries percent of total intermediate exports, in value added terms, 2008, 2009, and 2011 2011 2009 2008 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% USA DEU IRL FRA ESP NLD CHN BEL ITA IND The importance of services In 2011 the services content of total exports in the UK was 63.5%, significantly above the OECD average of 54.3% (Figure 9). Figure 9. Services content of gross exports by country, gross and value-added terms, percent of total gross exports, 2011 Domestic VA content Foreign VA content OECD average SNA service export share 100% 80% 60% 40% LUX IRL NLD BEL DNK GRC FRA GBR ISR CHE EST SWE ISL ESP IND PRT NZL AUT ITA USA FIN TUR POL SVN HUN JPN DEU CZE BRA SVK AUS ZAF CAN RUS CHN KOR MEX NOR IDN 0% CHL 20% Note: SNA services export shares include re-exports in the denominator, and include any actual differences in free on board and basic prices (the distribution margin provided by resident distributors to resident exporters) in goods. 5 For exports of manufactured goods alone, 37.1% of the total value reflected services sector value-added, slightly above the OECD average (36.9%). Of this share, the Wholesale, retail & hotels sector accounted for 13.0% of total gross exports, with Business services and Transport & telecoms accounting for 11.5% and 5.1% respectively (Figure 10). Figure 10. Services value added embodied in manufacturing exports, by country, percent of total gross exports, 1995 and 2011 Construction Wholesale, retail & hotels Transport & telecoms Finance & insurance Business services Other services 1995, Total 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% BEL FRA LUX DNK CHE SWE ITA FIN NZL NLD PRT HUN IRL EST POL ISR SVN ESP CZE SVK TUR AUT BRA DEU RUS ISL GBR ZAF AUS NOR IND CAN JPN GRC USA MEX CHN KOR IDN 0% CHL 5% At the individual sectoral level, the services content of exports was highest in Basic metals (44.7%), Motor vehicles (42.8%) and Other transport (42.5%) (Figure 11). Figure 11. UK Services content of gross exports, by exporting industry and service category percent of gross exports by industry 2011 Other manufacturing OECD average Other transport Motor vehicles Electrical machinery Other services ICT & electronics Machinery Business services Fabricated metals Basic metals Non-metallic minerals Paper, print, publsh Wood Textiles & apparel Food products Mining Agriculture 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Finance & insurance Rubber & plastics Transport & telecoms Chemicals Wholesale, retail & hotels Coke & petroleum Construction 6 The origin of domestic consumption In 2011, 23.0% of UK total final domestic consumption reflected foreign content, of which Europe contributed 12.2 percentage points (pp), NAFTA 3.2 pp, East and Southeast Asia 3.6 pp, South and Central America 0.4 pp and other regions 3.6 pp (Figure.12). Figure 12. Foreign value added content of domestic consumption by country by source region, 2011 Europe NAFTA East and Southeast Asia South and Central America Other regions 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% IRL LUX SVK SVN CZE HUN ISL EST BEL AUT KOR POL CHE FIN PRT ISR CHL SWE DEU GBR DNK ITA ESP NZL GRC ZAF FRA NLD NOR TUR IDN CAN RUS IND AUS JPN USA BRA CHN 0% MEX 10% Further Information The information included in this note is based on the 2015 edition of the Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database. » Access the data at http://oe.cd/tiva » Please contact us with your questions at [email protected] 7
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