Grain Service
5/10/17
USDA CROP REPORT SHEET
US S&D
CORN
2016/17
Crop Year:
Carry-in
Production
Imports
= Supply
-Crush
-Feed/Res
-Food/Ind/Seed
Ethanol
-Exports
Total usage
= End Stox
Stocks/use %
Ave farm price
4/11/17
1737
15148
55
16940
NA
5500
6895
5450
2225
14620
2320
15.9%
$3.253.55
SOYBEANS
2017/18
5/10/17
1737
15148R
55
16940R
NA
5500
6920
5450
2225
14645
2295
15.7%
$3.253.55
4/11/17
5/10/17
2295
14065
50
16410
NA
5425
7000R
5500R
1875
14300
2110
14.8%
$3.003.80
2016/17
4/11/17
197
4307
25
4528
1940R
14
104
NA
2025
4083
445
10.9%
$9.409.70
WHEAT
2017/18
5/10/17
197
4307R
25
4528R
1925
14
104
NA
2050
4093
435
10.6%
4/11/17
$9.55
5/10/17
435
4255
25
4715
1950
34
101
NA
2150
4235
480
11.3%
$8.3010.30
2016/17
4/11/17
976
2310
110
3395
NA
190
1021
NA
1025
2236
1159
51.8%
$3.803.90
2017/18
5/10/17
976
2310
115
3400
NA
190
1016
NA
1035
2241
1159
51.7%
4/11/17
$3.90
5/10/17
1159
1820
125
3105
NA
170
1021
NA
1000
2191
914
41.7%
$3.854.65
As expected USDA shows minimal change for the ‘16/17 US ending bean stox. US corn stox down slightly on higher food/seed usage. Note the sizable
increase in domestic corn use for ’17 crop, but a cut of 350M bu in exports, a surprise given the very small cut to foreign corn produc for ’17 crop.
Bean exports for ’17 crop shows up 100M bu, crush up 25M.
USDA uses a safe yield est for ’17 corn of 170.7bpa, and 48 bpa on soybeans. Used 91.6% hvstd on corn acres, and 99% on soybeans; both are realistic
at this point. Overall wheat yield pegged at 47.2 bpa vs 52.6 LY.
2016/17 & 2017/18 U.S. GRAIN CARRYOUT
2016/17 Crop Year
Corn
Soybeans
Soymeal
Soyoil
Wheat
Sorghum
Oats
Rice
Cotton (M. bales)
4/11/17
USDA
2320
445
300
2122
1159
48
46
49.1
3.7
2017/18 Crop Year
5/10/17
USDA
2295
435
300
2062
1159
48
46
48.1
3.2
2016/17 & 2017/18 WORLD GRAIN CARRYOUT
4/11/17
USDA
(million metric tonnes)
2016/17 Crop Year
4/11/17
USDA
Coarse Grains
Corn
Soybeans
Soymeal
Soyoil
Wheat
Cotton (M. bales)
Rice
5/10/17
USDA
258.00
222.98
87.41
12.02
3.71
252.26
90.91
118.09
5/10/17
USDA
2110
480
300
2232
914
24
41
38.1
5.0
259.49R
223.90R
90.14R
12.99
3.69
255.35
89.52
118.56
2017/18 Crop Year
4/11/17
USDA
5/10/17
USDA
221.38
195.27
88.81
12.31
3.66
258.29R
87.14
119.77
Ave Pre-Report Estimates
US Ending Stocks (M bu)
16/17
Ave
Range
Prev
Corn
2326
2269-2500
2320
Sbns
438
417-513
445
Wheat
1162
1145-1200
1159
17/18
Ave
Range
Prev
Corn
2120
1835-2400
NA
Sbns
555
420-759
NA
Wheat
930
842-1000
NA
Note: Ave ests & ranges vary slightly among
major news services. These are Reuters #s.
End Stox
2016/17
2017/18
Corn Bns Wht Corn Bns Wht
Ave ests
2315 443 1160 2122 563 934
GSC
na
na
na
na
na
na
Linn Grp 2335 432 1163 2296 738 779
Allendale
2298 443 1154 2045 481 954
ADMIS
2295 513 1159 2330 607 950
Doane
2320 425 1130 2180 500 849
Farm Fut
2300 430 1169 2000 420 1000
FC Stone 2458 466 1199 2101 527 926
DJ Survey 2327 439 1162 2111 572 974
What Linn Group thinks will be the final #, not
what USDA may show on the report.
Market reaction:
Corn: up 3-6
Sbns: up 3-6 (before turning lower)
Wht: up 3-6 (Before KC turned lower)
“R” = record high
U. S. SOYMEAL ESTIMATES IN THOUSANDS OF SHORT TONS
U. S. SOYOIL CARRYOUT ESTIMATE IS IN BILLIONS OF POUNDS
Cotton stocks are in million 480# bales
US rice in million hundredweight
Grain Service Corp. | 3340 Peachtree Rd. Suite 1910 | Atlanta, GA 30326 | 800-845-7103 | 404-261-5468 FAX | [email protected]
© 2017 The information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. This
material & any views expressed herein are for informational purposes only & should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options
contracts. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Errors and omissions excluded.
Grain Service
5/10/17
USDA CROP REPORT SHEET
General comments (World)
2016 & 2017 WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION (million metric tonnes)
“R”=record
CORN
CHINA
BRAZIL
ARGENTINA
2016/17 Crop Year
4/11/17
5/10/17
USDA
USDA
1053.76
1065.11
219.55
219.55
93.50
96.00R
38.50
40.00R
2017/18 Crop Year
4/11/17
5/10/17
USDA
USDA
1033.66
215.00
95.00
40.00R
SOYBEANS
BRAZIL
ARGENTINA
CHINA
345.97
111.00
56.00
12.90
348.04R
111.60R
57.00
12.90
344.68
107.00
57.00
13.80
WHEAT
AUSTRALIA
EU- 28
CHINA
CANADA
FSU
751.36
35.00
144.66
128.85
31.70
130.24
753.09
35.00
145.47
128.85
31.70
130.24
737.83
25.00
151.00
131.00
28.35
121.01
Reuters Poll showed average pre-report trade ests for
South American production as follows:
CORN
Average
Range
USDA Apr
Argentina
38.48
37.0-39.0
38.50
Brazil
94.23
93.0-96.1
93.50
BEANS
Average
Range
USDA Apr
Argentina
56.16
55.0-58.0
56.00
Brazil
111.3
110.5-113.0
111.00
One surprise was USDA’s increase of almost 12 M
tonnes in ’16 world corn production. Increases in Bzl,
Argentina account for about 4M T + a small hike for S
Africa and the EU; can’t identify where the other 7M T
280M bushels came from?
2017 World corn produc est down 32M T; US accounts
for a drop of 27MT, foreign produc down just 3M T.
“R” = record high
2016-17 U.S. WHEAT Supply & Demand by Class
2016/17
Beg Stox
Prod
TTL supply
Dom. Use
Exports
Usage
4/17 End Stox
5/17 End Stox
Winter Wht
2016 crop
2017 crop
HRW
446
1082
1532
532↑
440↑
972↑
580
560
HRW
Prod
(M bu)
1082
737
Hard Sprg
272
493
802↑
275↓
320
595↓
195
207
SRW
Prod
(M bu)
345
297
White
Prod
(M bu)
245
212
SRW
157
345
540
216↓
90
306↓
229
234
White
74
286
367↑
95
165
260
106
107
Durum
28
104
159↑
88
20
108
49
51
Total
976
2310
3400↑
1206↓
1035↑
2241↑
1159
1159
Ave Pre-Report Estimates
World Ending Stocks (MMT)
16/17
Ave
Range
Prev
Corn
223.32
221.5-228.8
222.98
Sbns
87.583
86.1-89.0
87.41
Wheat
252.16
250.7-253.2
252.26
Note: Ave ests & ranges vary slightly among
major news services. These are Reuters #’s.
Total
Prod
Hvstd
(M bu) (M Ac)
1672
30222
1246
25564
Ave Pre-Report Estimates
Winter Wheat Production
2017
Wtr Wht Prod
(M. bu.)
’16 crop
’17 crop
CO
KS
NE
OK
TX
105.1
467.4
70.7
136.5
89.6
72.2
289.8
51.5
89.1
69.0
AR
IL
KY
MO
MD
OH
TN
6.2
34.8
32.0
39.9
16.6
44.8
24.5
6.6
32.9
24.5
29.8
18.9
33.5
21.5
Wheat Quality Tour this week estd OK
production at 100M bu and KS at 282M.
KY yield down 10 bpa but most SRW
state yields were near or above LY.
VA up 11, AR up 6.
KS off 15 bpa, OK off 6, CO off 11,
NE off only 3. TX down 2 bpa.
KS hvstd wheat acres est at 84%,
lowest since 2007 (LY at 96.5%); very
high abandonment.
All
HRW
SRW
White
wtr
GSC
1329
815
300
214
Linn
na
na
na
na
ADM
1211
711
285
215
Allendale
1238
698
332
208
Farm Fut.
1256
744
303
209
FC Stone
1327
790
306
231
Doane
1200
686
289
216
Note: Ave ests & ranges vary slightly among major news
services. These are Reuters #’s.
Grain Service Corp. | 3340 Peachtree Rd. Suite 1910 | Atlanta, GA 30326 | 800-845-7103 | 404-261-5468 FAX | [email protected]
© 2017 The information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. This
material & any views expressed herein are for informational purposes only & should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options
contracts. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Errors and omissions excluded.