Carroll
Independent
School
District
Learn from Yesterday…
Understand Today…
Plan for Tomorrow
Demographic
Update
Fall 2015
Economic Conditions – DFW MSA
Southlake
Unemployment Rate
-1.2%
3.2%
DFW Job Growth
August 2015
19,775
Annual SF Permits
DFW MSA
•
•
•
•
U.S. 5.2%
Texas 4.4%
DFW MSA 3.9%
Southlake 3.5%
• 106,100 new jobs created
in the last 12 months
• 2,615 more than the same
period in 2014
Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Texas A&M Real Estate Center
2
Texas Enrollment Trends
2014/15 State Enrollment
Total Enrollment
Total Growth
5,232,065
80,140
Total State Enrollment
5,400,000
5,200,000
5,000,000
4,800,000
4,600,000
4,400,000
4,200,000
5,232,065
5,151,925
4,933,617
5,075,840
4,847,844
4,998,579
4,671,493
4,749,571
4,519,164
4,592,849
4,399,019
4,000,000
3,800,000
140,000
120,000
Enrollment Change
120,145
98,273
100,000
80,000
60,000
85,773
78,644
73,685
77,261
78,078
80,140
76,085
64,962
40,000
20,000
0
3
Region 10 & 11 Enrollment Trends
4
Region 10 & 11 Enrollment Trends
Region 10
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
District
Frisco ISD
Richardson ISD
Prosper ISD
Dallas ISD
Mesquite ISD
Allen ISD
Wylie ISD (Collin)
Grand Prairie ISD
Coppell ISD
Irving ISD
Forney ISD
Rockwall ISD
Waxahachie ISD
McKinney ISD
Lancaster ISD
Princeton ISD
Melissa ISD
Highland Park ISD (Dallas)
Anna ISD
Royse City ISD
2009/10 Enrollment
33,973
34,843
3,637
157,111
37,272
18,242
12,063
26,395
9,982
33,679
7,813
13,843
6,924
23,933
6,176
2,996
1,378
6,448
2,246
4,450
2014/15 Enrollment
49,644
38,618
7,074
160,253
40,273
20,664
14,039
28,340
11,570
35,191
8,995
14,992
7,968
24,811
7,052
3,790
2,119
7,091
2,874
5,070
Region 11
5‐YEAR Change (09/10‐14/15)
15,671
3,775
3,437
3,142
3,001
2,422
1,976
1,945
1,588
1,512
1,182
1,149
1,044
878
876
794
741
643
628
620
5‐YEAR PCT Growth
46.1%
10.8%
94.5%
2.0%
8.1%
13.3%
16.4%
7.4%
15.9%
4.5%
15.1%
8.3%
15.1%
3.7%
14.2%
26.5%
53.8%
10.0%
28.0%
13.9%
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
26
27
28
DISTRICT
Fort Worth ISD
Northwest ISD
Denton ISD
Eagle Mt‐Saginaw ISD
Lewisville ISD
Keller ISD
Mansfield ISD
Hurst‐Euless‐Bedford ISD
Birdville ISD
Burleson ISD
Little Elm ISD
White Settlement ISD
Everman ISD
Krum ISD
Aledo ISD
Castleberry ISD
Aubrey ISD
Arlington ISD
Brock ISD
Azle ISD
Weatherford ISD
Carroll ISD
Tolar ISD
2009/10 Enrollment 80,209
14,164
22,825
16,126
50,840
31,569
31,662
20,762
22,897
9,896
6,112
6,051
5,053
1,613
4,589
3,641
1,784
63,487
854
5,841
7,530
7,745
610
2014/15 Enrollment
85,975
19,831
27,020
18,659
53,356
33,619
33,410
22,416
24,389
10,983
6,950
6,664
5,543
2,064
5,037
4,076
2,213
63,882
1,175
6,156
7,735
7,884
742
5‐YEAR Change (09/10‐14/15)
5,766
5,667
4,195
2,533
2,516
2,050
1,748
1,654
1,492
1,087
838
613
490
451
448
435
429
395
321
315
205
139
132
5‐YEAR PCT Growth
7.2%
40.0%
18.4%
15.7%
4.9%
6.5%
5.5%
8.0%
6.5%
11.0%
13.7%
10.1%
9.7%
28.0%
9.8%
11.9%
24.0%
0.6%
37.6%
5.4%
2.7%
1.8%
21.6%
5
Southlake Housing Market
Year Over Year Comparisons
0%
YTD Sales
(448 YTD Sales Aug 2015)
Average Price
23%
Median Price
24%
($831,279 Aug 2015)
($745,000 Aug 2015)
Number of Listings
(179 Aug 2015)
Days on the Market
(59 Days)
Existing Home Inventory
(3.6 Month’s Supply)
10%
26%
12%
6
DFW New Home Ranking Report
ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 2Q15
Rank District Name
Frisco ISD
1
Denton ISD
2
Prosper ISD
3
Northwest ISD
4
Keller ISD
5
Lewisville ISD
6
Dallas ISD
7
Eagle Mtn. ‐ Saginaw ISD
8
Rockwall ISD
9
10 Little Elm ISD
11 Allen ISD
12 McKinney ISD
13 Crowley ISD
14 Mansfield ISD
15 Forney ISD
16 Plano ISD
17 Garland ISD
18 Midlothian ISD
19 HEB ISD
20 Burleson ISD
Annual Starts
2,728
1,707
1,405
1,136
989
1,026
1,024
868
663
806
471
481
530
533
469
454
357
427
430
387
Annual Closings
2,660
1,783
1,298
1,179
978
913
902
807
661
621
605
559
533
508
502
429
412
397
391
377
VDL
3,589
2,375
2,796
1,710
1,159
2,503
2,311
1,435
1,799
1,744
920
1,343
1,372
1,161
804
1,028
825
1,102
555
591
Future
8,135
16,233
27,990
22,929
2,448
2,980
5,828
19,839
7,939
5,044
1,305
6,229
8,674
5,359
12,500
2,364
3,390
20,525
5,003
3,770
Highland Park ISD
Carroll ISD
Lancaster ISD
165
183
162
159
156
152
132
469
650
39
720
3,209
37
38
39
7
New Housing Activity
Quarterly Starts and Closings
Carroll ISD Housing Activity
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
Starts
Starts
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Total
2012
17
22
20
27
86
2013
34
43
48
46
171
2014
58
44
46
57
205
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
Closings
2015
34
46
80
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
Housing Inventory
Closings
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Total
2012
10
14
21
16
61
2013
20
19
35
48
122
2014
26
49
51
29
155
•
2Q15 housing starts are up 2 units from 2Q14
•
2Q15 closings are up 3 units from 2Q14
•
New home inventory is 165 units-an increase of 22 units from 2Q14
•
New home inventory incrase may simply be from increased time of construction.
2015
24
52
76
8
Active Subdivision
Creekview
QuikTrip
Creekview
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
106 total homes
11 lots under construction
45 vacant developed lots
50 occupied
$443K-$489K
K-Hovnanian
Carroll Elementary
9
Active Subdivision
Ridgeview & Hidden Knoll
Hidden Knoll
Ridgeview
•
•
•
•
•
•
31 total homes
15 under construction
16 vacant developed lots
$638K-$715K
K-Hovnanian
Carroll Elementary
•
•
•
41 total homes
Road infrastructure is
currently being installed
Estimated velocity rates:
•
•
•
•
•
•
2016 = 15
2017 = 15
2018 = 11
$800K & up
Also known as Ridgeview II
Carroll Elementary
10
Total Housing Activity
CISD Housing Totals-Carroll Elementary
Subdivision
Total
Lots
Occupied
Lots
Under
Construction
Future
Lots
Zone
Status
Creekview
106
50
11
45
Carroll
Active
Hidden Knoll
41
0
0
41
Carroll
Under
Construction
Palomar
33
30
2
1
Carroll
Active
Ridgeview
31
0
15
16
Carroll
Active
TOTALS
211
80
28
103
11
Active Subdivision
Carillon
Carillon
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
404 total homes
50 homes under construction
190 occupied homes
164 future homes
2015 = 65 homes constructed
2016 = 65 homes constructed
2017 = 34 homes constructed
$680K-$1.8M
Johnson Elementary
12
Future Housing
Southlake Town Square (Garden District)- Brownstone and Condo Project
Southlake Town Square
Garden District
•
•
•
•
•
70 total homes
32 brownstones
•
Construction started December 2014
•
2,391-5,041 sq. ft.
•
Starting price = $975K
•
11 currently under construction
38 condos
•
Five total floors
•
1,525-3,390 sq. ft.
•
Starting price = $500K
•
Construction start date to be
determined
Developer = Cooper & Stebbins
Johnson Elementary
Southlake Boulevard
13
Future Subdivision
Torian Place
Torian Place
Kimball Road
•
•
•
•
•
•
13 future single-family homes
4,000-5,500 square foot homes
$1M-$1.5M+
Initial ground work has started
according to the developer
Hat Creek Development
Johnson Elementary
14
Total Housing Activity
CISD Housing Totals-Johnson Elementary
Subdivision
Total
Lots
Occupied
Lots
Under
Construction
Future
Lots
Zone
Status
Carillon
404
190
50
164
Johnson
Active
Dove Park Estates
10
8
2
0
Johnson
Active
Southlake Glen
(AKA Gateway Lakes)
39
0
0
39
Johnson
Under Construction
Garden District
Town Square Project
(32 Brownstones & 38 Condos)
70
0
11
(Brownstones)
59
Johnson
Under Construction
Oak Bend
12
4
7
1
Johnson
Active
Estancia
17
13
1
3
Johnson
Active
Patterson’s Pond
14
9
1
4
Johnson
Active
Reserve of Southlake
24
19
3
2
Johnson
Active
St. Emilion
14
12
0
2
Johnson
Active
Torian Place
13
0
0
13
Johnson
Under Construction
Villas Del Sol
9
8
0
1
Johnson
Active
Wimbledon Estates
17
11
1
5
Johnson
Active
Other Single-Family (Single Lots)
6
0
6
0
Jonson
Under Construction
TOTALS
649
274
82
293
•
•
•
Southlake Glen (AKA Gateway Lakes) is under construction (dirt work) and projected to start building homes in 4Q15.
Garden District (Town Square) brownstone project is under construction (dirt work) and currently has 11 brownstones under construction.
The 38 condos contained within the Garden District (Town Square) are not eligible to begin construction until 16 of 32 brownstones have
been completed.
15
Active Subdivision
Winding Creek
Carroll Boulevard
Southlake Boulevard
Winding Creek
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
74 total homes
3 under construction
44 vacant developed lots
3 model homes
24 occupied homes
$993K-$1.13M
SW Corner of Southlake
Blvd and Carroll Avenue
Old Union Elementary
16
Active Subdivision
Shady Oaks
Shady Oaks
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
148 total homes
25 under construction
33 vacant developed lots
90 occupied
$766K-$1.21M
Toll Brothers/Standard Pacific
Walnut Grove Elementary
17
Future Subdivision
Southlake Meadows
Southlake Meadows
•
•
•
•
•
•
96 home subdivision
79.837 total acres
Streets have been installed
and lots are being delivered
Toll Brothers
Formerly known as
Savannah Estates
Walnut Grove Elementary
Dove Rd
18
Future Subdivision
Glenmore
Bicentennial Park
Glenmore
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
16 home future subdivision
19 total acres
1-acre lots
Developer looking at
increasing lot total to 54
lots which goes before
P&Z on 11-15-15
If 54 lots approved-will go
before City Council on
11-17-15 and 12-1-15
Centurion American
Walnut Grove Elementary
Southlake Boulevard
19
Future Subdivision
Entrada and Granada-Town of Westlake
Entrada
•
•
85 total acres
322 total homes/units
Initial dirt work has started
Residential villas and condos
$500K-$2M
2015 = 15 homes
2016 = 45 homes
2017 = 60 homes
Estimated 10 lots (condos) fall within
NWISD
Also zoned for Westlake Academy
Walnut Grove Elementary
Northwest ISD
SOLA
NA
BL
VD
«
¬
114
Keller ISD
Dove Rd
Precinct Line Rd
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Granada
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
84 total homes
14 under construction
70 vacant developed lots
170 total acres
$1.2M +
Developed by Centurion American
Split between Carroll ISD and Keller ISD
• 16 lots split between CISD/KISD
• 68 lots in CISD
Walnut Grove Elementary
20
Total Housing Activity
CISD Housing Totals-Walnut Grove Elementary
Subdivision
Total
Lots
Occupied
Lots
Under
Construction
Future
Lots
Zone
Status
Autumn Creek
7
1
1
5
Walnut Grove
Active
Carlyle Court
8
0
0
8
Walnut Grove
Active
Chelsea Park
18
16
2
0
Walnut Grove
Active
Westwyck Hills
44
38
1
5
Walnut Grove
Active
The Enclave
15
14
0
1
Walnut Grove
Active
Terra Bella
28
10
6
12
Walnut Grove
Active
Shady Oaks
148
90
25
33
Walnut Grove
Active
La Mirada
5
4
0
1
Walnut Grove
Active
The Cliffs @
Clariden Ranch
4
1
1
2
Walnut Grove
Active
Highland Oaks
27
4
6
17
Walnut Grove
Active
Glenmore
16
0
0
16
Walnut Grove
Future-Approved
Southlake Meadows
96
0
0
96
Walnut Grove
Under Construction
*Granada
84
0
14
70
Walnut Grove
Active
*Entrada
322
0
0
312
Walnut Grove
Under Construction
Other Single-Family
(Single Lots)
3
0
3
0
Jonson
Under Construction
TOTALS
825
178
59
578
* Granada and Entrada are split subdivisions with some lots falling within other local school districts.
* Granada has 68 lots that fall entirely within CISD. 16 lots are split between Keller ISD and CISD.
* Entrada has 312 lots that fall entirely within CISD. 10 lots are split between Northwest ISD and CISD.
21
Total Housing Activity
CISD Combined Housing Totals
Attendance
Zone
Total
Lots
Under
Construction
*Future
Lots
Carroll
211
28
103
Johnson
649
82
293
Old Union
55
7
48
Rockenbaugh
1
1
0
Walnut Grove
825
59
578
TOTALS
1,741
177
1,022
*Future lot totals represent the majority of known developable lots within CISD.
An additional small number of future lots may be available for new single-family
construction which may not be reflected in this total.
22
Ten Year Projections
By Grade
Year (Oct.)
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
2025/26
EE/PK
103
121
110
123
158
158
158
158
158
158
158
158
158
158
158
K
440
449
457
439
477
489
508
522
524
536
544
544
552
554
556
1st
457
474
474
513
502
528
534
546
566
563
578
590
589
597
600
2nd
487
499
523
504
549
537
559
563
577
587
579
597
610
608
617
3rd
554
515
529
549
537
576
561
582
587
601
604
598
625
631
632
4th
556
571
560
583
576
570
610
592
600
620
623
631
622
647
656
5th
587
599
596
586
610
606
598
641
611
623
638
643
651
654
673
6th
634
621
634
614
626
644
636
633
669
644
650
671
678
684
688
7th
666
660
630
665
641
651
672
655
657
694
655
670
695
697
705
8th
624
672
700
640
688
664
661
691
666
666
714
668
684
711
711
9th
670
637
686
708
660
700
679
674
706
679
677
725
680
697
725
10th
633
666
624
676
726
667
700
674
670
706
676
672
725
680
697
11th
595
627
665
618
674
720
664
697
667
662
702
673
669
692
649
12th
686
600
624
666
627
672
723
661
697
667
661
702
673
672
693
Total
7,692
7,711
7,812
7,884
8,051
8,182
8,263
8,289
8,355
8,406
8,459
8,542
8,611
8,682
8,760
Total % Growth Growth
19
101
72
167
131
81
26
66
51
53
83
69
71
78
0.2%
1.3%
0.9%
2.1%
1.6%
1.0%
0.3%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
*Yellow Box = largest grade per year
*Green Box = second largest grade per year
• Carroll ISD may have more than 8,500 students by 2022
• 5-Year enrollment growth: 355 students
• 2020/21 enrollment: 8,406
• 10-Year enrollment growth: 709 students
• 2025/26 enrollment: 8,760
23
Ten Year Projections
By Campus
HISTORY
Campus ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Capacity
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
2025/26
Carroll Elementary
645
542
577
608
622
647
665
675
677
677
678
686
698
Walnut Grove Elementary
681
668
678
699
723
704
699
706
685
680
689
691
687
Johnson Elementary
540
527
567
589
615
636
651
672
688
708
715
722
738
Old Union Elementary
474
420
410
398
393
402
410
421
431
431
433
442
449
Rockenbaugh Elementary
599
554
567
564
577
574
587
591
605
622
641
654
647
2,939
2,711
2,799
2,858
2,930
2,963
3,012
3,065
3,086
3,118
3,156
3,195
3,219
58
88
59
72
33
49
53
21
32
38
39
24
ELEMENTARY TOTALS
Elementary Absolute Change
Elementary Percent Change
2.19%
3.25%
2.11%
2.52%
1.13%
1.65%
1.76%
0.69%
1.04%
1.22%
1.24%
0.75%
Durham Intermediate
1,054
628
654
644
640
697
710
686
709
718
718
728
732
Eubanks Intermediate
917
572
582
606
594
577
570
581
579
596
611
610
629
1,971
1,200
1,236
1,250
1,234
1,274
1,280
1,267
1,288
1,314
1,329
1,338
1,361
Intermed. Absolute Growth
‐30
36
14
‐16
40
6
‐13
21
26
15
9
23
Intermed. Percent Change
‐2.44%
3.00%
1.13%
‐1.28%
3.24%
0.47%
‐1.02%
1.66%
2.02%
1.14%
0.68%
1.72%
INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTALS
Carroll Middle School
860
659
692
690
708
704
692
757
761
723
763
777
769
Dawson Middle School
872
646
637
625
625
642
631
603
608
615
616
631
647
1,732
1,305
1,329
1,315
1,333
1,346
1,323
1,360
1,369
1,338
1,379
1,408
1,416
‐25
24
‐14
18
13
‐23
37
9
‐31
41
29
8
MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS
Middle Absolute Growth
‐1.88%
1.84%
‐1.05%
1.37%
0.98%
‐1.71%
2.80%
0.66%
‐2.26%
3.06%
2.10%
0.57%
Carroll High School
1,587
1,384
1,386
1,367
1,379
1,348
1,376
1,385
1,353
1,397
1,405
1,377
1,422
Carroll Senior High School
1,519
1,284
1,301
1,392
1,387
1,358
1,364
1,329
1,363
1,375
1,342
1,364
1,342
HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS
3,106
2,668
2,687
2,759
2,766
2,706
2,740
2,714
2,716
2,772
2,747
2,741
2,764
69
19
72
7
‐60
34
‐26
2
56
‐25
‐6
23
2.65%
0.71%
2.68%
0.25%
‐2.17%
1.26%
‐0.95%
0.07%
2.06%
‐0.90%
‐0.22%
0.84%
7,884
8,051
8,182
8,263
8,289
8,355
8,406
8,459
8,542
8,611
8,682
8,760
District Absolute Growth
72
167
131
81
26
66
51
53
83
69
71
78
District Percent Change
0.92%
2.12%
1.63%
0.99%
0.31%
0.80%
0.61%
0.63%
0.98%
0.81%
0.82%
0.90%
Middle School Percent Change
High School Absolute Growth
High School Percent Change
DISTRICT TOTALS
9,748
*Yellow Box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity
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Summary
• All 5 elementary zones have residential activity.
• Johnson and Walnut Grove Elementary zones have the most new home
activity, with 85% of Carroll ISD’s new home construction.
• Walnut Grove Elementary should approach 700 students next fall.
• The district will grow by 1.6% next fall.
• 5 Year enrollment growth: 355 students.
• 2020/21 enrollment: 8,406.
• Carroll ISD is projected to have more than 8,700 students for the
2025/26 school year.
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