Central Asia High Elevation International
Geophysical (HEIG) Project, since 2015…
Under auspices of UNESCO: the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP), the US, Japan,
Germany, China, France, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan cooperation
The HEIGE Goal
Synthesize and integrate multiple disciplines to develop fundamental
understanding the interaction between climate and alpine cryosphere in the
high central Asia endorheic basin: the past, present and possible future
variability contributed to water resources of the world largest endorheic basin.
• Will climate thresholds be crossed that change the current state of water resources,
and if so where, how fast, and how much?
• How will local and regional changes in climate, snow cover, glaciers, and permafrost
impact the regional hydrology, water quality, land degradation, bio-ecology, food
production and human health?
Current state of knowledge
80% information about low lands. Two third of
observations discontinued after the 1991
Little knowledge about climate and cryosphere dynamics
over 4000 m a.s.l., while the major snow/ice/permafrost
area spread over this elevation range
Vast satellite information does not fulfill the gap
Need ground observations in representative for local
benchmark areas for the remote sensing data calibration
What has been done toward of the goals
and objectives …
The Central Asia study area and climatic regions
1. Kazakh Steppe (KS), 2. Aral-Caspian Desert (AD), 3. Tarim (TR), 4. Siberian Altai-Sayan (SA), 5. Mongolian
(MA) Altai, 6. Western Tien Shan (WT), 7. Northern Tien Shan (NT), 8. Issyk Kul (IK), 9. Inner Tien Shan IT), 10.
Eastern Tien Shan (ET), 11. Central Tien Shan (CT), 12. Western Pamir (WP), 13. Pamiro-Alai (PA), 14. Central
Pamir (CP), 15. Eastern Pamir (EP)
Central Asia meteo-stations
412 meteorological stations
located at elevation rage
between -25 m below sea level
to 4169 m asl, between Mongolia
and Caspian Sea, and between
south Siberia and Tibetan
Plateau.
The 70 years period divided for
two periods for the climate
acceleration assessment: before
1975/76 and after 1976. All data
has checked for random errors.
Number stations in operation
Area and number of stations by elevations
Difference in long term normal air temperature between two periods: 1940 - 1976 and 1977 –
2011. The annual mean air temperatures increases +0.65°C and +0.9°C in the summer, particularly
at the Aral Sea and Balkhash Lake areas. The lowest difference is in the mountains above 3000 m
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Difference of long-term standard
deviation of winter air
temperature between 1951 - 1976
and 1977 – 2010
Difference of long-term standard
deviation of summer air
temperature between 1951 1976 and 1977 – 2010
Difference of long-term standard
deviation of annual air temperature
between 1951 - 1976 and 1977 – 2010 in
different elevation ranges
Difference in long term normal precipitation between two periods: 1940 - 1976 and 1977 – 2011
Annual precipitation increased in the peripheral regions of central Asia, while summer
precipitation decreased; particularly in Tien Shan
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Difference of long-term standard
deviation of winter precipitation
between 1951 - 1976 and 1977 – 2010
Difference of long-term standard
deviation of summer precipitation
between 1951 - 1976 and 1977 – 2010
6,056,480 km2 is annually covered by snow in Central Asia (about 45% of the total study area of 13,500,000
km2). Pamir and Tien Shan show significant decrease in trend of SCA percentage per decade above 3000 – 4000
m asl (-3.22% to -4.06%) but elevated in Altai (+2.51%). Duration of snow melt from the date of maximum snow
cover to the date of it’s disappearance reduced by 30 days in Tien Shan and Pamir.
Perennial snow covered area, % (PSCP)
from 1975 to 2014
Long-term mean 8-day SCAP and maximum SCAP
for each climatic region
(red star shows the date for maximum SCAP,
light blue span indicates 2 std of SCAP)
Trend of snow covered duration in
different elevation ranges.
There only places showing significant
changes under Mann-Kendal test with
significant level of 0.05 were included.
Red dots indicate mean values while red
lines indicate median values
Trend of SCD in different elevation ranges
within each climatic region
Siberian Altai: Wiith the glaciers larger than 0.1 km2, there were 1428 glaciers with an
area of 1285 km2 in 2011
Pamir :
12 449 km2 in the 1970’s and 11 834 km2 in 2011
Tien Shan:
14 152 km2 in the 1970’s and 12 949 km2 in 2011
~ 35% of the total glacier covered area in high mountains of Asia
Glacier area changes in Altai, Tien Shan and Pamir since 1960s
Two largest glacier massifs in Central Asia: in Central Pamir and Central Tien Shan
30 m
Lowering of the
glaciers surface, m
-90-80
-80-70
-70-60
-60-50
-50-40
-40-30
-30-20
-20-10
-10-0
0-10
10-20
20-40
1133 glaciers, 2,205 km2 in 2014
3.7% area change between 1972 and
2014. -10m lowering of the glaciers
surface in average (-0.2 km3)
Glacier surface elevation changes in Central
Pamir
Changes of mean elevation of
glaciers in Fedchenko Mountain
Massif by sub-regions (a), area class
(b), slope group (c) and aspect (d)
Glacier surface elevation changes in Central Tien Shan (Inylchek glacier massif)
Changes of mean elevation of glaciers
in Inylchek Mountain Massif by subregions (a), area class (b), slope group
(c) and aspect (d)
The surging glaciers, Central Pamir
(A) Central Pamir, KH-9, 1975, SRTM 2000) 215 glaciers
with unstable dynamics 51 surging glaciers.
B
A
(B) Medvejiy Glacier in the surging
stage, aerial photography, 06.1988 –
10.1989.
(C) Medvejiy Glacier (KH-9 and SRTM
2000)
C
Medvejiy Gl.
(A) Changes of the Fedchenko Glacier tongue
between 1928 and 2012. The Corona image from
1968 is shown in the background; (B) Elevation
changes and elevation along the central flow line
at the Fedchenko Glacier between 1928 and 2000
(2009). The surface data is derived from the maps
(1928, 1958), SRTM data and GPS data from
measurements in 2009.
The volume loss 5 km³ over the period
of 81 years relates to an initial volume
of 131 km³ in 1928 (3.8%).
(Marchenko et al, 2007)
-5
-10
-15
-20
Temperature degrees Celsius
-15
-15
West Belukha (Altai)
Ice Core Temperature.
Aizen et al, 2016
-20
-10
Severe Centennial
Drought
Prolong
Warm
Period
Holocene Climate
Optimum
-20
-25
Bølling-Allerød
Interstadial
-25
Younger
Dryas
-30
-35
-40
GISP2 (Greenland) Ice Core
Temperature. Alley, R.B. 2000
-45
20
15
10
5
Age - Thousands of Years Before the Present
0
Temperature degrees Celsius
δ18O
0
Grigorieva (Tien Shan) Ice Core δ18O. Takeuchi, Aizen,
2014
Installation of the first weather station at an altitude
of 5520 m asl, Central Pamir, 2015
We plan to install 10-15 high elevation
meteorological stations in Altai, Tien Shan and
Pamir that will include the measurements of
precipitation and snow accumulation. All stations
will be combined in one satellite data transmission
system and the data will be available through the
GCW portal after initial analysis and
standartization
However, we are searching financial support for
this project from international financial institutions
or scientific agencies initiated through WMO and
UNESCO.
This data base site is in transition from Canadian
commercial server to the University of Idaho
This book will combine the results of
our research in Asia high mountains
(Altai, Tien Shan, Pamir and Tibet)
completed with support of the NSF
and NASA in last 15 years.
Without research on cryosphere issues research we will not be able to
simulate the real scenario for climate and water resources change in
central Asia
The dried watercourse (Uzboi) between Aral and Caspian seas developed during the
Bølling/Allerød interstadial (~19-12K BP)
Thank you!