Livestock Report
Cattle Prices
 Cattle prices, steer base €3.65/kg, heifers €3.75. Some farmers negotiating a base of €3.70 and
€3.80. Some factories quoting €3.60 and €3.70.
 Bulls at €3.55 to €3.75. Cows ranging from €2.85 to €3.35.
 DAFM official prices for week ending Nov 6th. R=3= steers are €3.70/kg. R=3= heifers €3.83.
Young bulls O/R/Us €3.55/3.69/3.76. Cows P+/O/R/Us €2.85/2.98/3.19/3.35/kg.
Supplies
 Supplies have eased back. For the 4 day week Nov 6th the kill was at 30,903.
 Grass cattle are predominantly gone through the system and many cattle are housed at this
stage. This changes the parameters for farmers selling.
 Since September the weekly kill has been running at 3/5,000 head per week above 2015 levels.
In the 8 weeks of Sept/Oct a total of 34,285 additional cattle above 2015 levels have been killed
or an extra 4,285 per week.
 The increase in supplies in 2016 is made up mainly of young bulls and cows. Total kill up 65,500
to date this year. Steer kill on a par with last year. Increase in young bull (+37,000) and cow kill
(+25,000) heifers (+6,000)
 2015 calf registrations up 133,000 head. Live exports down 60,000.
 AIMS data for Sept 1st 2015 vs 2016 shows the following changes for beef cattle numbers
compared to 2015;
o 24 to 36 month age category – 21,000 (-24,000 male +3,000 heifers)
o 12 to 24 months
+ 122,000 (+71,000 male +51,000 heifers)
o 0 to 12 months
+ 57,000 (+44,000 males +13,000 heifers)
 Weekly supplies for the remainder of the year expected to tighten as farmers have sold and will
make the decision to house. In spec stock anticipated to getting much tighter.
 2017 supplies will be based on the increase in the 12-24 month age category + 125,000. Live
exports also back 59,000. Forecast increase in finished cattle supplies of 100,000/120,000 in
2017. Kill to reach 1.75m head, back to early 2000’s levels.
Markets
 GB price in sterling terms has come back about 10p/kg over recent weeks. R3 steer price of
£3.59/kg for w/e Nov 5th. At an exchange rate of 88p/€, this price is equivalent to €4.29/kg incl
5.2% vat. Compared to official Irish price of €3.70/kg, this is a price difference of 59c/kg or about
€215 per head.
 Sterling movement to 86p/€ at am on Nov 11th.
 UK prices are up 40p/kg since May 1st following their traditional pattern and the impact of the
sterling devaluation following Brexit.
 Since Brexit, which was the top of the market, Irish base prices are down from €4.10 to €3.65, a
reduction of 45c/kg. The sterling exchange rate changed from 77p to 88p.
 However, UK retail prices have not increased, with intense retail competition. Irish exporters
claim they have not fully benefited from the UK price increases, while the full impact of the sterling
changes apply.
 EU Beef prices w/e Oct 29th excl vat. Ireland R3 steer €3.56/kg. GB steer €3.99. N Irl
€3.79.French steer price €3.51/kg. R3 bull €3.57. Italian R3 bull €3.72. German price R3 bull
€3.74. Spanish bull €3.63. Irish price now below the EU average.
IFA Action and Proposals
 Following the National Livestock Committee meeting on November 10th the following points were
agreed.
 IFA seeking a strong price increase on the back of tighter supplies, the strong price returns in
the UK, the positive change in sterling and the need to lift prices out of loss making territory
especially for cattle coming out of sheds.
 Following a request from IFA, Minster Creed has agreed to hold a Beef Forum meeting on
Thursday Nov 17th, where IFA will outline the severe financial implications of the current loss
making prices, the unviable situation for livestock producers and the serious threat to the beef
sector and especially the suckler cow herd.
 IFA plans to hold a major National Livestock Meeting involving Minister Creed, the meat
processors, Bord Bia, Teagasc and others to outline the serious situation for the beef sector and
livestock producers as a result of Brexit and other changes and actively pursue solutions.
 Recommended that IFA establish a high level project team on Brexit.
 IFA policy to maximise market returns through;
o
Putting pressure on factories to return the maximum price back to farmers, including
pressure on retailers for price increases to reflect the UK devaluation.
o
Ensuring strong competition through a strong live export trade.
o
Creating a better balanced in market supplies through ensuring a strong live export
trade for young calves next spring, an export trade for weanlings to Turkey and other
EU markets and securing new export market destinations for store and heavier cattle
to North Africa/Middle East markets.
o
Keeping farmers up to date with the latest price and market developments in a factual
and farmer positive fashion.
 Highlighting to farmers the facts and implications around plans advocated by processors and
others encouraging farmers to increase calf rearing and stock numbers, particularly considering
the uncertainty around final returns in the absence of a minimum type of contractual price
arrangements from processors for 2017/2018 and Brexit.
 Pursue a solution to the problems (labelling, retail and other) negatively impacting on the live
export trade to Northern Ireland and GB.
 At National and EU level, demanding increased direct support of €200 per suckler cow.
 Seeking National and EU aid to assist livestock farmers from the fall-out from Brexit, under the
de minimis rules, EU market disturbance measures and also French food aid proposal.
 Develop and pursue IFA policy on Brexit at the highest levels in Government and EU
Commission.
 Maximise new market outlets for beef and live cattle and the removal of barriers preventing
access to existing markets.
 Push for increased funding and supports to beef promotion and marketing including live exports.
Quality Payment System/Beef Grid
 A recent article carried in the agri media claiming that the QPS/Beef Grid was costing farmers
€13m to €18m pa was incorrect.
 The article presented the calculations of the pluses and minuses on the grid as a measurement
of price neutrality of the QPS. Such an approach is flawed because it takes no account of the
original price differentials that were in place prior to the introduction of the QPS and ignores the
actual base price.
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To highlight the flaw in the methodology used, if the base price was set at the O- grade, this
analysis would show that farmers would gain many tens of millions each year from the grid, again
which would be incorrect.
When the QPS was introduced, IFA retained Deloitte accountants and auditors to undertake an
analysis on whether or not the movement from the old system to the new QPS was price neutral
for farmers and they concluded it was price neutral.
Based on initial analysis of the DAFM data for 2015, the figures indicate that the QPS is price
neutral.
The QPS is a system to pay farmers for the different levels of quality measured under the EUROP
classification system and is scientifically based on Teagasc research data.
Live Exports
 Following a strong campaign by IFA to open the live export market to Turkey, the first boat load
of 1,900 bulls sailed on Sept 19th.
 Two more boat loads of weanling bulls have sailed since and a number of additional loads are
planned prior to year-end. Viastar is the exporter.
 Cork Marts have announced their intention to withdraw from the calf export market. IFA has
expressed farmers’ disappointment with this move and are set to meet Cork Marts.