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State of the Market
Quarterly Market Research Report
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Q4-2016
Table of Contents
UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication (Q4 2016)……… 4
Population …………………………………………………………………………….. 7
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Metro Vancouver Population 2006 – Present
Metro Vancouver Population Growth Rate (%yoy)
British Columbia Interprovincial Migration
British Columbia International Migration
British Columbia Net Migration
BC’s Population Growth Breakdown
Economic Indicators ……………………………………………………………... 8
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
Bank of Canada 5 Year Posted Rate (%)
Consumer Price Index, Canada, BC, Metro Vancouver
Metro Vancouver Labour Force Totals: 2006 – Present
BC Unemployment Rate
Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 2006 – Present
Canada GDP: 2006 – Present
Economic Indicators ……………………………………………………………... 9
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
Budgetary Balance - Canada
BC Investment in New Construction: 2006 – Present
Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars)
BC Bankruptcies
Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close)
Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded
Housing Economic Indicators …………………………………………….... 10
4.1
4.2
Homeowner Protection Office Single Family Registrations
Homeowner Protection Office Multi-Family Registrations
Housing Economic Indicators………………….……………………………. 11
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
CMHC Townhome Starts
CMHC Apartment Starts
CMHC Single Family Starts
Residential Building Permit Values, Metro Vancouver
Statistics Canada Housing Price Index, BC, Metro Vancouver
CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates
New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums ……………………………12
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing
Concrete Condominium Sales
Concrete Condominium Inventory Levels
Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels
Table of Contents
Page 2
Q4-2016
New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums …………………….. 13
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing
Wood Frame Condominium Sales
Wood Frame Condominium Inventory Levels
Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels
New Home Data: Townhomes …………………………………………….... 14
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
Townhome Projects Actively Marketing
Townhome Sales
Townhome Inventory Levels
Townhome Standing Inventory Levels
UA Affordability Index: New Home Data ………………………………. 15
9.1
9.2
9.3
UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums
UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums
UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes
Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver……….... 16
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
Apartment Re-Sales and Listings
Apartment Re-Sale Prices
Attached Re-Sales and Listings
Attached Re-Sale Prices
Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings
Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices
Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board………….……………………………... 17
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.5
11.6
Apartment Re-Sales and Listings
Apartment Re-Sale Prices
Attached Re-Sales and Listings
Attached Re-Sale Prices
Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings
Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices
Methodology & Definitions ……………………………………………………18
Definitions
Prices
Income
Assumed Down Payments
Analytical Methods
Other Assumptions
Sources ………………………………………………………………………………….19
Sources
Table of Contents
Page 3
Q4-2016
UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication
Welcome to the latest edition of UDI Pacific’s “State of the Market” quarterly publication. The Q4-2016 the “State
of the Market” report provides up to date statistics and trends on the new home and re-sale housing markets as
well as the amalgamation of relevant economic statistics that impact the housing market. Note that the report
also includes the UDI/Urban Analytics Housing Affordability Index which is derived from Urban Analytics’ New
Home Source Live database as well as Homeowner Protection Office BC’s new home registry statistics.
Population Growth & Housing Starts
Metro Vancouver Housing Starts and Population Change (15+)
12000
10900
10000
10000
8000
9000
7200
7900
6600
6157
6000
5327
4149 4261
4000
4603
3694
Housing Starts
Population
Change (15+)
2000
0
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016
The above table shows the trend of Metro Vancouver’s housing starts and population change over the past four
years. Overall housing starts for Q4-2016 (4,603) are up eight percent from the same quarter last year and were
also up 10 percent compared to the five year average.
Metro Vancouver Population Change (15+) per Housing Start
3.5
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.3
2.2
1.9
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.0
Q4 2016
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
0.5
Metro Vancouver’s net population change was up 6,600, which is down 34 percent from the same quarter last
year and down 25 percent from the five year average.
Table of Contents
Page 4
Q4-2016
UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication (Q4 2016)
The previous chart shows Metro Vancouver’s Population growth to housing starts. The current ratio
of 1.4 new residents per housing start is down from the 1.7 recorded last quarter, and down from the
2.3 recorded in Q4-2015. This ratio is below the five year average of 2.2 new residents per housing
start and should become more favorable to buyers/tenants if this ratio persists.
Local Economic Factors
The most notable recent events have been the continued measures undertaken by the Provincial
Government in attempts to impact the overall housing market. In December, the Provincial
Government announced that it would be providing a five year interest-free loan for first time buyers
(up to $37,500) to assist them with getting into the housing market. In late January, the Provincial
Government also announced that it plans on lifting the 15 percent foreign buyer tax on people who
have work permits and pay taxes in the province. BC’s economy continues to remain reasonably
strong, however, its official unemployment rate edged up slightly to 5.1%.
Metro Vancouver’s new home market rebounded from its Q3 slowdown and once again showed signs
of strength. A combined total of 4,347 new multi-family home sales were recorded in Q4-2016 and
while this total is down 15 percent from a near record total recorded in Q4-2015, note that they were
up 46 percent from last quarter. Concrete condominiums sales were particularly strong – the 3,211
concrete condominium sales represent 74 percent of overall fourth quarter sales totals. At the end of
Q4-2016, there were a total of 3,416 new multi-family homes available to purchase, which is down 30
percent from the sale quarter last year and still near historic lows. Low released and unsold inventory
levels continue to be a primary contributor to the lack of new home affordability across the region.
Global Economic Factors
The most impactful global event was the recent election of Donald Trump as the 45 th President of the
United States and the subsequent initiatives undertaken within his first few weeks in office. One of the
more notable initiatives is the temporary travel ban on seven countries. While the ramifications of this
policy is uncertain, our stance is that immigration controls such as these only further elevate the status
of Canada as a safe and desirable place to immigrate to. The DJIA stock index moved up near the 20,000
mark and has re-established an all-time high and Canada’s TSX composite index moved up above the
15,200 mark and is also nearing all-time highs.
We hope that you enjoy the most recent edition of the report and find it to be informative, helpful and
convenient. As always, we welcome any feedback or comments on the publication.
Sincerely,
Urban Analytics Inc.
Michael Ferreira
Table of Contents
Jon Bennest
Page 5
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Q4-2016
Population
1.1
Metro Vancouver Population 2006 - Present
1.2
2,200
1.00%
2,150
0.75%
2,100
2,050
Thousands
Metro Vancouver Population Growth Rate (%)
0.50%
2,000
0.25%
1,950
1,900
0.00%
1,850
-0.25%
1,800
1,750
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
1.3
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
-0.50%
Q4
2016
British Columbia Interprovincial Migration
Q4
2006
1.4
9,000
5,000
3,000
1,000
-1,000
-3,000
Q4
2007
1.5
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2016
British Columbia Net Migration
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
British Columbia International Migration
Q4
2006
1.6
Q4
2007
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
British Columbia Growth Breakdown
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2016
Insights & Comments:

Metro Vancouver’s population as of Q4-2016 is now estimated at 2,177,200 residents.

This is up 30,700 residents over the past year and up 6,600 or a 0.30% increase from last quarter’s estimate.

The interprovincial migration increase of 3,579 residents this past quarter was the lowest total recorded since Q1-2014.

International migration for the most recent update (Q3-2016) was net positive by 14,798, with a net positive year-to-date migration of 33,572 in 2016.

International migration as of Q3-2016 is up 33% and down 20% when compared to the same quarter in 2015 and 2014, respectively.

Net migration for the most recent update (Q3-2016) was up 18,377 residents, which was the fifth highest total recorded over the past decade.
Table of Contents
Q4
2016
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
7,000
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
Page 7
Q4
2016
Q4-2016
Economic Indicators
2.1
Bank of Canada 5 Year Posted Rate (%)
2.2
Consumer Price Index
8%
Canada
Metro Vancouver
130
125
7%
Index
120
6%
5%
115
110
105
100
4%
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
2.3
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
95
Q4
2016
Metro Vancouver: Labour Totals 2006 - Present
Q4
2006
2.4
1,500
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2016
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2016
British Columbia Unemployment Rate
8%
1,400
1,350
Thousands
Q4
2008
9%
1,450
7%
1,300
6%
1,250
1,200
5%
1,150
4%
1,100
1,050
3%
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
2.5
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2016
Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 2006 - Present
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
Q4
2008
2.6
$20
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Canada GDP: 2006 - Present
$1,825
$19
$1,750
$18
$1,675
BIllions
$17
$16
Billions
Q4
2007
$15
$14
$1,600
$1,525
$13
$1,450
$12
$1,375
$11
$1,300
$10
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q4
2016
Insights & Comments:

Bank of Canada 5 year conventional mortgage rates continued to remain unchanged in Q4-2016 since Q2-2015. The current rate of 4.64% is an all-time low.

Note that the majority of large banks in Canada (BMO, TD, HSBC, Scotiabank, etc.) are currently offering lower 5 year fixed rates (ranging between 2.89% and 4.49%).

Also note, however, that new mortgage rules came into effect in Q3-2016, which requires mortgages with less than a 20% down payment to qualify at the Bank of
Canada’s 5 year posted rates.

Canada’s GDP as of the most recent update was up 15.3 Billion in Q3-2016 compared to the previous quarter.

Unemployment rates in BC have increased by 4% since Q3-2016 up to 5.1% in Q4-2016.

The CPI for Canada (128.4) and Metro Vancouver (124.7) are up 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively, as compared to the same quarter last year.

Retail sales were also up as of the most recent update, increasing 5.6% compared to the same quarter last year.
Table of Contents
Page 8
Q4-2016
Economic Indicators
3.1
Budgetary Balance, Canada
3.2
$2,000
$60
$1,800
$40
$1,600
$20
$1,400
$0
$1,200
Millions
Billions
BC Investment in New Construction: 2006 - Present
-$20
$1,000
$800
$600
-$40
$400
-$60
$200
$0
-$80
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
Q4
2008
3.3
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q4
2016
Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars)
3.4
British Columbia Bankruptcies
$140
2,900
$120
$100
Thousands
2,400
$80
$60
$40
1,900
1,400
$20
$0
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
3.5
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
900
Q4
2016
Q4
2008
Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close)
3.6
$175
18,000
$150
16,000
$125
Billions
$200
20,000
12,000
10,000
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2016
Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded
22,000
14,000
Q4
2009
$100
$75
$50
8,000
$25
6,000
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
$0
Q4
2016
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Insights & Comments:

After OPEC nations decided to cut production of crude oil in November 2016, prices reached $52.61 USD per barrel as of the end of Q4-2016: an increase of 16%
relative to November and a 44% increase from the same quarter last year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to climb, closing at 19,763 at the end of Q4-2016.

This marks a 21% increase by the end of Q4-2016 since the last dip seen in Q3-2015.

The TSX moved up to just over the 15,200 mark, which is up 4% compared to the 14,726 reported at the end of the third quarter of this year.

Only 1,095 consumer and 30 business bankruptcies were recorded in BC last quarter; the lowest combined total recorded in over 10 years.

BC had the highest investment in new construction in Q3-2016 of $1.748 Billion. This is the highest total recorded within the last 10 years.

Canada decreased its budgetary deficit by 17% from Q2-2016 to Q3-2016, recording a $26.6 billion deficit this past quarter.
Table of Contents
Page 9
Q4-2016
Housing Economic Indicators
4.1
New Single Family Registrations
700
Vancouver Proper
Inner Metro
4.2
New Multi-Family Registrations
Outer Metro
Vancouver Proper
Inner Metro
Outer Metro
2600
2200
600
1800
500
1400
400
1000
300
200
Q4 2011
600
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
200
Q4 2011
Q4 2016
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
All new homes in the province must be registered with the Homeowner Protection Office (HPO), a Branch of BC Housing.
The registration data are collected by the HPO branch in the public registry. The majority of registered new homes are
enrolled with home warranty insurance which protects against construction defects. The registration of new homes must
occur prior to the issuance of building permits and housing starts. The new home registrations measure residential
construction activities at the beginning of a project before construction commences .
A study has been conducted by the Bank of Canada in collaboration with BC Housing to assess whether new home
registration data under the Homeowner Protection Act can be used as a leading indicator for economic activity in
B.C.
The research finds that quarterly increases in new registrations for single-detached homes have statistically
significant predictive content for growth in real GDP over the next one to three quarters, and provide stronger signals
compared to housing starts and building permits over this forecast horizon.
The research report has been published under Staff Discussion Papers on the website of the Bank of Canada.
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/sdp2016-3.pdf
- Single includes the new single detached homes enrolled with home warranty insurance or with approved Owner Builder Authorizations.
- Multi includes the new homes in multi-unit buildings (2 or more dwelling units) enrolled with home warranty insurance and does not include new homes in multi-unit
rental buildings (purpose built rentals).
Note: Some minor adjustments may be made to the figures over time as registrations are withdrawn or cancelled from home warranty insurance from time to time.
Insights & Comments:

There were 1,313 HPO single family registrations recorded throughout Metro Vancouver in Q4-2016 which is down nearly 10% from the same quarter last year and
down just over 11% from the same quarter in 2014.

Overall HPO single family registrations in Metro Vancouver have been trending downwards since the second quarter of 2016.

There were 4,788 multi-family registrations recorded in Metro Vancouver in Q4-2016, which roughly doubled compared to the 2,236 recorded in Q4-2015.

This overall rise is attributed to an almost three-fold increase in multi-family registrants to 3,050 in Q4-2016 from Inner Metro, when compared to the same quarter
last year.

Despite this upward trend, there was a leveling in Outer Metro where new multi-family registrations were down only 1% compared to Q4-2015.
Table of Contents
Page 10
Q4-2016
Housing Economic Indicators
5.1
CMHC Townhome Starts
Inner Metro
Outer Metro
Q4 2011
5.3
Q4 2012
Inner Metro
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2011
5.4
Outer Metro
Vancouver
Outer Metro
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Vancouver
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Residential Building Permits
$900
$800
700
$700
600
$600
500
$500
Millions
800
400
300
$400
$300
$200
200
$100
100
$0
0
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
5.5
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Metro Vancouver
Q3
2006
Q4 2016
Statistics Canada Housing Price Index
110
5.6
BC
105
100
95
Index
2475
2250
2025
1800
1575
1350
1125
900
675
450
225
0
Q4 2010
Q4 2016
CMHC Single Family Starts
Inner Metro
Starts
Q4 2013
CMHC Apartment Starts
Vancouver
Starts
Starts
700
630
560
490
420
350
280
210
140
70
0
Q4 2010
5.2
Q3
2007
Q3
2008
Q3
2009
Q3
2010
Q3
2011
Q3
2012
Q3
2013
Q3
2014
Q3
2015
Q3
2016
CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates
Vancouver
North Shore
Tri-Cities/Ridge Meadows
Surrey/Langley/White Rock
Richmond/Delta
Burnaby/New Westminster
1.2%
90
1.0%
85
0.8%
80
0.6%
75
0.4%
70
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
0.2%
Q4
2016
0.0%
Insights & Comments:

There were 4,603 overall new housing starts recorded in Q4-2016, which is down 14% from the previous quarter but up 8% compared to the same quarter last year.

There were 916 single family housing starts recorded in Q4-2016, which is down 28% from last quarter and up just over 0.5% compared to the same quarter last
year.

There were 791 townhome starts in Q4-2016, which is up just over 11% compared to last quarter but up 13% compared to the same quarter last year.

Outer Metro represented 72% of overall new townhome starts in Q4-2016, which remains proportionally similar to last quarter.

There were 2,896 condominium starts recorded in Q4-2016, which is down 9% from last quarter but up 9% compared to the same quarter last year.

Vancouver and Inner Metro represented 48% and 39% of overall condominium starts in Q4-2016, respectively.
Table of Contents
Page 11
Q4-2016
New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums
6.1
Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing
Inner Metro
Outer Metro
6.2
Vancouver
80
70
50
Sales
Projects
60
40
30
20
10
0
Q4 2010
6.3
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Concrete Condominium Inventory Levels
Inner Metro
Outer Metro
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Q4 2010
6.4
Q4 2011
Outer Metro
Q4 2012
Inner Metro
Vancouver
450
3,500
400
3,000
350
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
Q4 2013
Vancouver
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Outer Metro
Vancouver
300
250
200
150
100
500
0
Q4 2010
Inner Metro
Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels
4,000
Inventory Levels
Inventory
Q4 2013
Concrete Condominium Sales
50
0
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Insights & Comments:

There are currently 88 actively selling concrete condominium projects in Metro Vancouver, which represents a 32% decrease from the same quarter last year and a
33% decrease from the same quarter in 2014.

There were 3,191 concrete condominium sales in Q4-2016, which is down 3% from the same quarter last year but up 44% from the same quarter in 2014.

Following declining sales numbers in Q3-2016, increases in sales in Q4-2016 were seen in both Vancouver Proper and Inner Metro.

Concrete condominium sales this quarter in Inner Metro have surpassed the previous peak seen in Q1-2016, and continue to be strongest in this region since Q42015.

This can be attributed to the launch of major projects in the Burnaby/New West and Coquitlam sub-markets this quarter, which collectively brought just over 2,000
units to market during Q4-2016. Included within these are towers at City of Lougheed, Station Square, Imperial, Triomphe, and Lougheed Heights.

These projects accounted for a combined 1,783 sales during the quarter.

The following sales totals were recorded in Q4-2016 – 546 sales in Vancouver proper, 2,609 sales in Inner Metro, and 36 sales in Outer Metro.

Overall released and unsold inventory of concrete condominiums (1884) is down 34% from the same quarter last year and represents the third lowest total recorded
over the past six years.

There are only 26 concrete condominium units in Metro Vancouver that are completed and unsold.

This represents the lowest standing inventory level recorded over the past five years.
Table of Contents
Page 12
Q4-2016
New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums
7.1
Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing
Inner Metro
Outer Metro
7.2
Inner Metro
Vancouver
60
Sales
Projects
50
40
30
20
10
0
Q4 2010
7.3
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Wood Frame Condominium Inventory Levels
Inner Metro
Outer Metro
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Q4 2010
7.4
Vancouver
Q4 2012
Inner Metro
800
1600
700
1400
600
1200
1000
800
600
400
Q4 2013
Vancouver
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Outer Metro
Vancouver
500
400
300
200
100
200
0
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
Outer Metro
Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels
1800
Inventory Levels
Inventory
Q4 2013
Wood Frame Condominium Sales
0
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2012
Q4 2016
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Insights & Comments:

There are currently 41 actively selling wood frame condominium projects in Metro Vancouver in Q4-2016; only up by 1 project from last quarter.

Q4-2016 actively selling wood frame condominium projects are down 59% from the same quarter last year and down 65% from the same quarter of 2014.

Overall new wood frame condominium sales were recorded at 676 in Q4-2016, which is down 21% compared to the same quarter last year and down 13% when
compared to the same quarter in 2014.

Vancouver Proper is the only region which saw an increase in sales relative to Q3-2016.

Wood frame condominium sales are also a result of being restricted by low levels of supply.

Q4-2016 sales of wood frame condominiums in both Outer (235) and Inner Metro (279) declined relative to Q3-2016, at 27% and 1%, respectively.

Overall released and unsold inventory of wood frame condominiums (739) in Q4-2016 is down 51% from the same quarter last year and represents the third lowest
total recorded over the past six years.

There are currently 27 new wood frame condominiums in Metro Vancouver that are completed and unsold.

This represents a 92% decrease in standing inventory compared to the 340 recorded in Q4-2015 and also represents a six year low.

Note that this six year low follows a significant depletion of standing inventory in the Outer Metro region from a six-year high of 667 in Q1-2014.
Table of Contents
Page 13
Q4-2016
New Home Data: Townhomes
8.1
Townhome Projects Actively Marketing
Inner Metro
Outer Metro
8.2
Vancouver
Inner Metro
70
Sales
Projects
800
40
30
200
10
Q4 2011
8.3
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
0
Q4 2010
Q4 2016
Townhome Inventory Levels
Inner Metro
Outer Metro
8.4
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Townhome Standing Inventory Levels
Inner Metro
Vancouver
Outer Metro
Vancouver
400
350
Inventory Levels
750
Inventory
600
400
20
600
450
300
150
0
Q4 2010
Vancouver
1000
50
900
Outer Metro
1200
60
0
Q4 2010
Townhome Sales
300
250
200
150
100
50
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
0
Q4 2012
Q4 2016
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Insights & Comments:

There are currently 64 actively selling new townhome projects in Metro Vancouver.

This number is down only 1 project relative to last quarter and down 11% compared to the same quarter in 2015.

All regions of Metro Vancouver saw an unchanged number of townhome projects actively selling this quarter, with the exception of Outer Metro which went from 36
projects in Q3-2016 to 35 in Q4-2016.

There were 460 new townhome sales recorded in Metro Vancouver in Q4-2016, which is down 59% compared to Q4-2015 and lower than Q4-2014 totals by 31%.

Note that townhome sales in Outer Metro (352) represent 77% of overall new townhome sales this past quarter.

Outer Metro is also the only region to experience an increase in sales relative to last quarter.

Note that the number of released and unsold townhome units in Inner Metro and Vancouver were recorded at 216 and 67, respectively.

Overall released and unsold townhomes (681) in Q4-2016, is up 200% compared to an almost six-year low in Q1-2016, but up 20% compared to Q4-2015.

There are currently 8 townhomes in Metro Vancouver that are completed and unsold, which represents a year-long low (falling to only 2 units in Q2-2016) over the
last five years.
Table of Contents
Page 14
Q4-2016
UA Affordability Index: New Home Data
9.1
UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums
Outer Metro
71%
72%
72%
54% 56%
54%
39%
34%
71%
71%
70%
74%
54% 53% 52%
40%
74%
55%
74%
54%
41%
39% 39%
40%
Inner Metro
9.1
UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums
Vancouver
76%
55%
77%
77%
Outer Metro
75%
53% 52% 53%
74%
74%
71% 72%
72%
56%
54%
51%
44% 42%
39%
36% 32%
32%
39%
34%
30%
74%
72% 71%
71%
70%
54%
54%
53%
52%
40%
40%
34%
Inner Metro
39% 39%
74%
74%
55%
54%
55%
41%
39%
Vancouver
76%
77% 77%
53%
52% 53%
32%
32%
9%
UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums
75%
73%
74%
64% 62%
42%
40%
73%
74%
62% 62%
72%
75%
63%
60% 59%
42%
40%
72%
62%
41%
40%
73%
34%
13%
62%
39%
35%
72%
74%
9.2
62% 60%
40%
60%
40%
38%
74%
68%
57%
55%
73%
67%
53%
64%
37%
27%
30%
UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes
Outer Metro
65%
68%
53%
67%
54%
67%
54%
65% 66%
54%
70%
50% 47%
Inner Metro
68%
52%
70%
26%
16%
16%
22%
23%
69%
64%
59%
25%
68%
62%
72%
72%
60% 59%
40% 40%
42%
35%
75%
63%
73%
62%
40% 41%
58%
32%
68%
53% 54%
67%
67%
65%
54%
54%
50%
36%
39% 40%
22%
16%
9%
60%
38%
40%
Inner Metro
66%
70%
68%
70%
52%
51%
51%
47%
16%
19%
23%
69%
60%
57%
68%
67%
55%
53%
66%
49%
37%
30% 29%
25%
Vancouver
64%
68%
65%
58%
59%
33%
26%
22%
11%
62%
74%
UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes
65%
46%
27%
62%
74% 73%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016
54%
33%
72%
27%
Outer Metro
49%
73%
31%
9.3
37%
27%
74%
65%
49% 48%
35%
19%
62%
Vancouver
51% 51%
33%
62%
73%
Vancouver
29%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016
9.3
74%
Inner Metro
49%
42%
31%
10%
UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums
Outer Metro
73%
9%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016
Vancouver
73%
42%
30%
10%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016
Inner Metro
51%
21%
13%
Outer Metro
74% 74%
72%
44%
36%
21%
9.2
75%
35%
27%
49%
48%
49%
37%
32%
27%
33%
36%
22%
11%
8%
54%
46%
9% 8%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016
Insights & Comments:






Affordability decreased for most locations and product forms in Q4-2016, except townhomes in Inner Metro and concrete condominiums in Vancouver.
The largest decline in concrete condominiums occured in Inner Metro, which fell 8.0% from 42.2% last quarter.
Townhomes in Inner Metro saw an increase in affordability of 3.7% (up to 36.3%) relative to last quarter, and a slight increase in concrete condominium affordability
occurred in Vancouver to 9.8% from 9.0% last quarter.
New wood frame condominiums in all regions saw a decline in affordability as a result of declining inventory in Metro Vancouver.
46.3% of new townhomes in Outer Metro were affordable to the average working household in Q4-2016, down 7.4% recorded last quarter.
Single family affordability decreased in Vancouver Proper and Inner Metro while Outer Metro saw an increase of 2.5% compared to Q3-2016, representing the second
consecutive quarterly increase after a near four year decline.
Table of Contents
Page 15
Q4-2016
Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
10.1
Apartment Re-Sales and Listings
Sales
10.2
Apartment Re-Sale Prices
Listings
Greater Vancouver Benchmark Price
7,000
$550
$500
5,000
$450
Thousands
6,000
4,000
3,000
$400
$350
$300
$250
2,000
$200
1,000
$150
$100
0
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
Q4
2008
10.3
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2006
Q4
2016
Attached Re-Sales and Listings
Sales
2,500
Thousands
0
10.5
Q3
2010
Q3
2011
Q3
2012
Q3
2013
Q3
2014
Q3
2015
Q3
2016
Q4
2006
Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings
Sales
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2016
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2016
$700
$650
$600
$550
$500
$450
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
500
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Greater Vancouver Benchmark Price
1,000
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Attached Re-Sale Prices
Listings
1,500
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
10.4
2,000
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q4
2007
Q4
2008
10.6
Listings
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Single Detached Re-Sale Prices
Greater Vancouver Benchmark Price
$1,700
7,000
Q4
2009
$1,500
6,000
$1,300
Thousands
5,000
4,000
3,000
$1,100
$900
2,000
$700
1,000
$500
$300
0
Q4
2006
Q4
2007
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2006
Q4
2016
Q4
2007
Q4
2008
Q4
2009
Q4
2010
Q4
2011
Q4
2012
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
Q4
2015
Q4
2016
Insights & Comments:

4,014 apartment, 1,243 townhome, and 2,791 single family re-sales were recorded in Q4-2016.

Apartment re-sales were down 4%, townhome re-sales were down 21% and single family re-sales were down 22% compared to the same quarter last year.

Average benchmark prices were up 18% for apartments, up 32% for townhomes, and up 24% for single family homes when compared to the same quarter last year.

Average benchmark prices, decreased marginally when compared to Q3-2016; apartment benchmark prices were down 0.1% from $512,233, down just over 1% for
townhomes from $674,533, and down 4% from $1,578,333 for single family homes.

Q4-2016 benchmark prices for all sectors saw the first decrease relative to all-time highs over the last decade which were established in Q3-2016.

The Average Benchmark Price of all product types in Greater Vancouver in Q4-2016 are as follows: Apartment - $511,567, Townhome - $666,033 Single Family $1,513,467.
Table of Contents
Page 16
Q4-2016
Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board
11.1
Apartment Re-Sales and Listings
2,500
Sales
11.2
Active Listings
Average Price
Thousands
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016
11.3
Attached Re-Sales and Listings
Sales
$295
$290
$285
$280
$275
$270
$265
$260
$255
$250
$245
$240
$235
$230
$225
$220
Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016
11.4
$490
$470
1,400
$450
Thousands
1,600
1,200
1,000
800
$430
$410
$390
600
$370
400
$350
200
$330
$310
Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016
0
Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016
Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings
7,000
Sales
Attached Re-Sale Prices
Average Price
Active Listings
1,800
11.5
Apartment Re-Sale Prices
11.6
Active Listings
Single Detached Re-Sale Prices
Average Price
$1,100
6,000
$1,000
Thousands
5,000
4,000
3,000
$900
$800
2,000
$700
1,000
$600
0
Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016
$500
Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016
Insights & Comments:

In Q4-2016, the relevant Fraser Valley municipalities recorded 794 apartment re-sales, 796 townhome re-sales and 977 single family re-sales.

Apartment re-sales were up 21%, townhome re-sales were down 7%, and single family re-sales were down 52% compared to the same quarter last year.

The number of active listings for all product types dropped at the end of Q4-2016.

Since Q3-2016, the number of active listings for Apartments, Townhomes, and Single Family have decreased 34%, 6%, and 23%, respectively.

Overall average benchmark prices increased only for townhomes which continued their upward trend, yet at a declining rate in Q4-2016.

Dissimilarly, both single family homes and apartments experienced declines in average benchmark price after a steady increase over roughly the past seven years.

The Average Benchmark Price of all product types in the Fraser Valley in Q4-2016 are as follows: Apartment - $284,862, Townhome - $475,625, Single Family
$1,021,228.
Table of Contents
Page 17
Q4-2016
Methodology & Definitions – Affordability Index
Definitions
Inner Metro: West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, South Delta, Coquitlam, Port Moody & Port
Coquitlam.
Outer Metro: Langley, North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge.
Vancouver: Downtown Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East.
Prices
Prices for the new home market were collected from actively selling new multi-family projects in Metro Vancouver. Re-sale prices were
collected from the Real Estate Boards of Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley (with median and benchmark prices used).
Income
The Index uses household income information from Statistics Canada data from the 2010 Household Survey.
Assumed Down Payments
Wood frame and concrete condominiums: 20%
Townhomes: 30%
The reason for the difference is the assumption that townhome buyers are more likely to be move-up buyers with equity built up in
their existing property.
Analytical Methods
Five year, fixed rate 30-year amortization mortgages were used, taking an average of the best rates at eight banks at the time of
analysis.
Other Assumptions
The affordability index assumes that a person can afford a maximum of 32 percent of their gross family income to go toward mortgage
payments.
Table of Contents
Page 18
Q3-2016
Sources
Sources
1.1 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey
1.2 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey
1.3 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates
1.4 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates
1.5 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates
1.6 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates
2.1 - Bank of Canada
2.2 - BC Stats Consumer Price Index
2.3 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey
2.4 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey
2.5 - Statistics Canada Retail Trade by Province
2.6 - Statistics Canada Gross Domestic Product
7.1 - UA New Home Source Database
7.2 - UA New Home Source Database
7.3 - UA New Home Source Database
7.4 - UA New Home Source Database
8.1 - UA New Home Source Database
8.2 - UA New Home Source Database
8.3 - UA New Home Source Database
8.4 - UA New Home Source Database
9.1 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites
9.2 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites
9.3 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites
3.1 - Stats Canada Revenue, Expenditure & Budget
3.2 - Statistics Canada Investment in New Housing
3.3 - Index Mundi (Monthly Spot Oil Prices)
3.4 - Industry Canada Insolvency Statistics
3.5 - Statistics Canada Stock Market Statistics
3.6 - Statistics Canada Stock Market Statistics
10.1 - REBGV Monthly Statistics
10.2 - REBGV Monthly Statistics
10.3 - REBGV Monthly Statistics
10.4 - REBGV Monthly Statistics
10.5 - REBGV Monthly Statistics
10.6 - REBGV Monthly Statistics
4.1 BC Housing (data collected by the HPO branch)
- New Single Family Registrations
4.2 BC Housing (data collected by the HPO branch)
- New Multi-Family Registrations
11.1 - FVREB Monthly Statistics
11.2 - FVREB Monthly Statistics
11.3 - FVREB Monthly Statistics
11.4 - FVREB Monthly Statistics
11.5 - FVREB Monthly Statistics
11.6 - FVREB Monthly Statistics
5.1 - CMHC Housing Now – Vancouver & Abbotsford
5.2 - CMHC Housing Now – Vancouver & Abbotsford
5.3 - CMHC Housing Now – Vancouver & Abbotsford
5.4 - Statistics Canada Building Permits
5.5 - Statistics Canada New Housing Price Indexes
5.6 - CMHC Rental Market Report
6.1 - UA New Home Source Database
6.2 - UA New Home Source Database
6.3 - UA New Home Source Database
6.4 - UA New Home Source Database
Table of Contents
Page 19
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