January 2017
Norwich Economic Barometer
Contents
Business news
03
Economy03
Business
10
Education
12
JSA claimant count unemployment
13
Ward level JSA claimant count unemployment
14
JSA claimant count unemployment:
age and duration
15
Housing benefit
17
Young people (16-18 years) Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)
18
Average house prices
18
Appendix19
Page 2 Norwich Economic Barometer
Business news
Economy
The UK manufacturing sector ended 2016
on a positive note. Rates of growth
for production and new orders in
December were among the best seen over
the past 2.5 years.
Companies benefited from stronger inflows
of new work from both domestic
and overseas clients, the latter aided by the
boost to competitiveness from the
weak sterling exchange rate.
The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS
Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®)
rose to a 30-month high of 56.1 in
December, up from 53.6 in November and
well above its long-run average (51.5). The
headline PMI has signified
expansion in each of the past five months.
December saw output expanded to meet
the needs of stronger new work
inflows. Growth of production and new
business was broad-based by sector,
with strong gains registered across the
consumer, intermediate and investment
goods industries. However, the increases
seen at consumer goods producers
were relatively mild in comparison to those
seen in the other sectors.
Figure 1 Markit / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI
Page 3 Norwich Economic Barometer
UK construction companies signalled a
positive end to the year, led by the fastest
rise in new order volumes since January
2016. Stronger demand patterns resulted in
sustained job creation and a broad-based
upturn in business activity during
December. However, the construction
sector continued to experience intense cost
pressures as suppliers passed on higher
imported raw material prices. The latest
rise in overall input costs was the steepest
for just over 5.5 years. At 54.2 in
December, up from 52.8 in November, the
seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK
Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index®
(PMI®) signaled a robust and accelerated
expansion of overall construction output.
The headline index has now posted above
the 50 no-change mark for four months
running, and the latest reading suggested
the fastest pace of expansion since March
2016. Anecdotal evidence suggested that
improving order books and a general
rebound in business conditions had helped
to lift construction output in December.
Residential building activity remained the
best performing sub-category at the end of
2016. Moreover, the latest expansion of
housing activity was the fastest since
January. Work on civil engineering projects
also picked up at a robust pace in
December, while commercial construction
increased only marginally.
Figure 2 Markit / CIPS UK Construction PMI
Page 4 Norwich Economic Barometer
The final batch of UK PMI® survey data
for 2016 from IHS Markit and CIPS
signalled that the dominant UK service
sector expanded sharply in December,
rounding off the strongest quarter of the
year. The rate of expansion of activity
accelerated for the third month running to
the sharpest since July 2015, driven by
stronger growth in new work.
Employment rose at a pace unchanged
from November’s seven-month high, and
sentiment towards the 12-month outlook
strengthened despite ongoing uncertainty
regarding Brexit and European elections.
The survey data also indicated that
inflationary pressures in the sector
remained substantial, with prices charged
rising at the strongest rate since April
2011. The Index remained above 50 for
the fifth consecutive month in December,
indicating a continued recovery in growth
following a contraction in July linked to
the EU referendum. Moreover, the Index
rose for the third consecutive month to
56.2, from 55.2, indicating the fastest
expansion since July 2015. The rate of
growth was also sharper than the 20-year
long run survey average.
Figure 3 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI
Page 5 Norwich Economic Barometer
The UK’s financial services sector
contributed £71.4bn in tax last year,
according to a report on behalf of the City
of London. The total, which was the highest
in the report’s nine-year history, accounted
for 11.5 per cent of the UK’s total tax
receipts. The report highlights the potential
hit to public finances if Brexit restricts
access to the EU’s single market.
Nearly a quarter of turnover ‘went straight
to the public coffers’. The report, by
accountancy giant PwC, said the record
total was due in part to corporate tax
reforms, which delivered an extra £8.4bn,
and the bank levy, which resulted in lenders
paying out £3.4bn
Retail sales in December dropped 1.9 per
cent from the previous month, according to
official figures. Sales across all main retail
sectors declined, with the heaviest falls
coming at non-food stores, the Office for
National Statistics (ONS) reported. It was
the biggest monthly fall for more than four
and a half years. However, when compared
with a year ago, retail sales were up 4.3 per
cent in December.
In November, the volume of goods
exported rose at a three-month rate of 1.1
per cent, up from the previous report
which showed a 2.7 per cent decline,
according to the ONS. Economists say that
could be a sign that the fall in value of the
pound since June is boosting exports. It
could also be behind a rebound in
manufacturing output in November.
Despite those upbeat figures on exports,
overall the UK’s trade position deteriorated
in November. The deficit on trade in goods
and services was estimated at £4.2bn in
November, up from £2.6bn in October.
The widening gap reflects a £3.3bn surge in
imports. For November, the deficit on
trading in just goods (and not services)
increased to £12.2 billion, widening by £2.3
billion from October. A £1.4bn rise in
machinery and transport equipment
imports was the biggest contributor to
that figure.
The UK’s annual inflation rate was 1.6 per
cent in December, up from 1.2 per cent in
November and the highest rate since July
2014. According to the Office for National
Statistics higher food and air fares helped to
increase December’s Consumer Prices
Index (CPI), the rise was bigger than
expected, with economists predicting a rate
of 1.4 per cent.
The fall in sterling since the Brexit vote has
started to feed into the economy - this is
the highest CPI has been for over two
years, though the annual rate remains
below the Bank of England’s target and
low by historical standards. Rising air fares
and food prices, along with petrol prices
falling less than last December, all helped
to push up the rate of inflation. Rising raw
material costs also continued to push up
the prices of goods leaving factories.
Separate figures for the Producer Price
Index (PPI) showed that the price of
goods bought from factories rose 2.7 per
cent in December compared with a year
ago, as manufacturers started to pass
through higher input costs following the
fall in the pound.
According to research undertaken by The
Institute for Fiscal Studies the number of
men in low-paid part-time work has
increased dramatically over the past 20
years, in contrast to those on higher wages.
Around 20 per cent of 25 to 55-year-old
men on low hourly wage rates now work
part-time, compared to just 5 per cent for
higher earners.
Pay inequality among men has risen
significantly as the wages of high earners
have increased, while those on lower rates
work fewer hours. In contrast, inequality in
women’s weekly pay has fallen following a
reverse trend of fewer working part-time.
Page 6 Norwich Economic Barometer
The research does not reveal why
increasing numbers of low-paid men are
working part time.
Lenders reported an increasing number of
borrowers faced difficulties repaying loans
and overdrafts at the end of the year.
Default rates rose on this unsecured debt in
the final three months of the year, the Bank
of England’s Credit Conditions Survey
shows. Write-offs had been at historically
low levels, but demand and the availability
of credit have risen. The Bank’s governor
has already urged vigilance over the issue.
The total level of unsecured debt has been
rising at its fastest pace for 11 years.
Incentive-related pay schemes can stress
rather than motivate employees, according
to new research by the University of East
Anglia. The study explored the relationship
between three types of ‘contingent pay’
– performance-related, profit-related, and
employee share-ownership – and positive
employee attitudes such as job satisfaction,
employee commitment and trust in
management. Researchers found that only
performance-related pay had a positive
impact on all three employee attitudes.
Surprisingly, and in contrast to previous
studies, profit-related pay and employee
share-ownership had a mix of negative and
no significant effects on attitudes.
UK labour market figures for the 3 months
to November provided a number of
surprises – the unemployment rate held at
4.8 per cent, the post-crisis low.
Historically, such an unemployment rate has
indicated a tight labour market and, relative
to recent trends, the data are now
beginning to suggest some response in
earnings growth.
Overall average weekly pay (including
bonuses) posted a 2.8 per cent annual
growth pace, the highest since 2015 Q3
with regular pay ticking up to 2.7 per cent.
The acceleration of both measures was
ahead of expectations, although in large
part stemmed from upwardly revised data
for October. Still, against a backdrop of
quickening price inflation real pay is set
to be meaningfully eroded over the
coming months.
The East of England saw the fastest growth
in business activity of any UK region in
December as a boost in new orders
encouraged firms to create new jobs at a
fast pace. The Lloyds Bank regional PMI
survey of purchasing managers for the East
rose to 59.8 in December, up from 57.1 in
November, as activity and new orders in
the region climbed.
The pace of new job creation in the East
was second only to Yorkshire and Humber.
However, rising costs caused by the weak
pound is prompting more firms to raise
prices. The upturn in December
contributed to the best quarterly growth in
business activity in one-and-a-half years,
further underlining the East of England’s
position as one of the top regional
performers in the UK during 2016.
Manufacturers in the East of England
enjoyed a strong boost to output and
orders in the fourth quarter creating the
brightest conditions for the sector in 18
months, according to a survey by the
employers group EEF and advisory firm
BDO. It showed output in the region rose
by a balance of +21 per cent with a
similarly strong performance expected in
the next quarter three months. New
orders for the next 3 months are also
strong at +26 per cent whilst more firms
are planning to recruit. The EEF pointed to
early signs that the sector has left behind
the negative effects of the low oil price and
concerns about global growth and is seeing
opportunities from a resilient UK market
and brightening export prospects. But it
also points to risks, including Brexit and is
Page 7 Norwich Economic Barometer
still forecasting manufacturing will contract
and that profit margins are set to be
squeezed further in 2017.
Consumer spending rose by 5.5 per cent in
the East of England in November, the
second highest on record, driven by
spending on petrol and in supermarkets,
according to data from Barclaycard. Travel
expenditure rose 6 per cent and restaurants
in the East enjoyed growth of 15.5 per
cent, as consumers took shelter from the
cold weather by socialising.
Furniture store spending in the East of
England grew 2.8 per cent in November, its
best performance in seven months.
Nationally, spending rose by a record 4.7
per cent, led by spending on essential
items. Spending in supermarkets in the East
was up 1.4 per cent and up 11.7 per cent
on petrol purchases was up 11.7 per cent.
Some consumers may have also taken
advantage of Black Friday deals to buy
larger items for the household.
Confusion about the legal implications of
Brexit are the biggest cause of concern
facing businesses, according to a survey by
law firm Prettys at its regional employment
law update events. Twenty seven per cent
identified Brexit as the main concern,
followed by the national living wage
(17 per cent) and gender pay gap reporting
(12 per cent).
Other issues included inflation, pensions,
data protection and TUPE. On Brexit, 36
per cent of those that replied cited the lack
of clarity on the legal precedents as the
biggest issue, followed by the falling value of
the pound and immigration.
Firms in agriculture, automotive and
professionals services are more encouraged
by the impact of Brexit whilst those in
technology, manufacturing and media are
less so, according to a survey of 260
businesses by regional law firm Howes
Percival. It also showed that whilst nearly
half of respondents had so far taken no
action on Brexit, half said they were
planning to make changes in the next 6-24
months, as outcomes becomes clearer.
Most said that their employment plans
were unchanged.
Manufacturers in the region are increasingly
worried about rising energy costs and
shortages although the sector could cut
usage and boost the economy by investing
in technology says a report from Barclays
Corporate Banking. The report, ‘Powering
On: Energy Resilience in UK Manufacturing’
shows more than two-thirds of East of
England’s manufacturers expect energy
shortages in the coming decade and 84 per
cent expect ‘significant’ price rises. Firms
feel squeezed by price increases of other
raw materials, greater competition and
concern over Brexit. Nearly two thirds of
the region’s manufacturers expect price
hikes in the coming year. But the report
says UK manufacturers could inject an
additional £2.56bn into the UK economy
and cut energy consumption by nearly a
third by increasing investment in energy
technology over the next decade.
More than half of business leaders (55 per
cent) are not confident of a positive Brexit
impact on their business. The survey of
over 260 business leaders and decision
makers in the East of England, East
Midlands and South East found that the
referendum vote had so far had little or no
impact on businesses. The research, by
regional law firm Howes Percival, saw 47
per cent of respondents admit they had
taken no action so far, while 70 per cent
said that their employment plans remained
unchanged following the referendum.
Leaders in agriculture, automotive and
professional services were among the most
positive, having had time to reflect on the
Page 8 Norwich Economic Barometer
referendum outcome, while the technology,
manufacturing and media sectors were the
least positive. Overall, businesses reported
a mood of ‘business as usual’ in merger and
acquisition (M&A) activity and the property
market in the past quarter, with 70 per cent
of respondents finding no real change in
their ability to buy or sell property, while
a majority said sector M&A activity had
been unaffected.
According to regional recruitment firm
Cooper Lomaz, there has been a sharp fall
in the number of people willing to move
location to find a new job following the
Brexit vote,. “Although employers’
appetites for hiring new staff hasn’t
diminished, candidates appear to be more
cautious about switching jobs because of
uncertainty over how Brexit will impact the
sector they work in,” said the firm’s
operations director Mark Fletcher.
Although almost half of employees surveyed
expected their role to change over the
coming year, the share willing to move for a
job has fallen from 54 per cent to 34 per
cent. The firm’s latest recruitment trends
and salary survey showed East Anglia’s
professional and technical staff are earning
an average of £36,400; a rise of 3.9 per
cent in the past 12 months. Salaries ranged
from £38,783 in Hertfordshire to £32,907
in Norfolk. IT in Cambs remains a boom
sector, particularly for staff with a
programming language.
Some 37,000 East of England businesses (13
per cent of firms ) are only paying the
interest on their debt and not repaying the
debt itself, according to a survey by R3. It
marks a return to levels seen in previous
years after dropping by a third to around
25,000 last year (8 per cent). R3 Eastern
chairman Frank Brumby said: “Only paying
off the interest on debt is often a sign of a
‘zombie’ business – ...only surviving
because of low interest rates – but R3
believes the new figures do not necessarily
indicate a return of the ‘zombie’
phenomenon.
Apart from the initial shock of the EU
referendum result, the business
environment has been relatively benign
over the course of 2016. It’s more likely
that otherwise healthy companies are
taking advantage of record low interest
rates to keep cash in their business.” R3
Eastern also reports a downward trend in
the region of further indicators of acute
distress, such as a decrease in market share
and an inability to repay debts following a
small increase in interest rates.
Residential property sales are picking up
across the region after lull earlier in the
year, surveyors say. The Royal Institute for
Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) residential
market survey showed the number of
prospective buyers in the East of England
had increased for the second consecutive
month in November with 21 per cent more
surveyors reporting a rise in new buyer
enquiries. With demand up there were
more agreed sales with 33 per cent more
respondents reporting growth in activity
over the month, the second-highest reading
of 2016.
East Anglia saw the fastest growth in house
prices of any region in 2016 - for the first
time since 2010 - with average prices up
10.1 per cent year-on-year according to the
Nationwide house price index.
Norwich has been named as one of the five
UK cities predicted to grow the fastest in
2017. The UK Powerhouse report,
produced for law firm Irwin Mitchell by the
Centre for Economics and Business
Research (CEBR), placed the city alongside
Ipswich in fourth position with Cambridge
taking top spot; the East of England
dominated the economic predictions. The
report says Norwich and Ipswich will see 1
Page 9 Norwich Economic Barometer
per cent growth in GVA by the end of
2017. Oxford and Milton Keynes were also
included in the top five fastest growing cities.
Norwich has been named as the second
most friendly city in the country in a survey
conducted by the Co-op Sheffield was
named as the UK’s most friendly city.
Business
Norwich Insurance broker Alan Boswell
Group, which has its head office in
Norwich, has taken a further step into the
Cambridge market after the acquisition of
Cambridge-based S-Tech Insurance Services
Ltd. It takes Alan Boswell Group’s total
gross written premium to £82m, and its
staffing numbers beyond 300.
Electrical retailer, Hughes Trade, has taken
over a new store in Leicester as it expands
its trade offering outside of the region.
Hughes Electrical launched its Trade division
in 2007 and it now has over 50 employees,
an annual turnover of £16m and operates
from 14 locations across the country with
its headquarters in Norwich.
Norwich City Football Club have
confirmed a new partnership with
Rackheath-based NVCS, which will see
the company’s Green Farm Coffee
supplied to all corporate areas of Carrow
Road, as well as Yellows Bar & Grill and
Delia’s Restaurant and Bar. The
partnership follows on from NVCS
replacing The Galway Roast as coffee
suppliers for City, after the deal with the
Irish company was terminated in early
November. That has seen The Galway
Roast’s branding and naming rights
removed from the South Stand, as the
company was ‘unable to fulfil their side of
the sponsorship agreement’. The UK
franchise of The Galway Roast has since
ceased trading as it was unable to obtain
the necessary investment and was forced
to close its London Street store in Norwich.
Fountain Partnership, based in Norwich,
has been learning secrets from Google after
being named one of the search giant’s top
partners. Google visited to talk the team
through some of its newest tools. The
takeover day was part of Fountain’s prize
for having won Google’s search
performance award at its partner awards
ceremony in December. The Palace Street
agency has a numbers-driven approach
– which co-founders Marcus Hemsley and
Rob Morley say stems from time as
philosophy undergraduates – and is focused
on what a business wants to achieve
through its online marketing.
Majestic Wine has had its best ever
Christmas trading figures as the CEO,
Rowan Gormley, presses ahead with a
transformation plan following a difficult six
months. The warehouse wine retailer,
which owns Norwich-based Naked Wines
and Suffolk-based fine wines business Lay &
Wheeler, said like-for-like sales rose 7.5 per
cent in the 10 weeks to January 2, an
increase on the 7.3 per cent increase it
recorded last year. Total sales were up
12.4 per cent during the period, with
Majestic saying it is on track to meet full
year expectations.
Bullard’s Norwich Gin has won the best
London dry gin in the UK award in the
2017 World Drinks Awards and is now up
for the World awards. Bullards is a name
which has been synonymous with Norwich
for some 180 years, starting off as a
brewery in the 19th century - it is the first
gin distillery in Norwich in 150 years.
Insurance group Marsh has appointed
20 apprentices to its Norwich office as
client advisers on a two year programme
as part of its 2016 UK apprentice
programme. They will have the chance
to gain qualifications, including a certificate
of insurance from the Chartered
Insurance Institute.
Page 10 Norwich Economic Barometer
Enterprise agency NWES helped 204
people to obtain loans totalling over £2m
in 2016, twice the level of the previous
year, by supporting new and growing
businesses to secure finance through the
Start Up Loan programme. The average
loan to support new and growing
businesses was £10,000.
Accountants Larking Gowen has launched
its Tourism Business Survey, which, for the
last 11 years, has canvassed the views of
the industry in the east. Produced with
Visit East Anglia, the survey – covering
Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex – gives an
overview of confidence in tourism and
sector concerns.
Norwich’s Prelude Records, one of the
country’s few remaining specialist classical
music shops, is drawing to a close. Andrew
Cane, proprietor, plans to shut the doors
of the St Giles Street shop for the final
time on March 30, after more than 30
years. The decision followed a slow, but
steady decline in business as download
purchases and streaming music services
have boomed.
This year, among questions on bookings,
social media and the national living wage,
restaurateurs, hoteliers, accommodation
providers and attraction owners will be
quizzed on how suitable their business is
for disabled visitors, broadband quality
and their fears over Brexit.
Special effects firm FXHome, based in St
Giles, is hoping to inspire a new
generation of film makers as it aims to
increase its user base to five million. Over
the past 12 months the business has had
its most successful product launch ever,
with more than 10,000 sales of its updated
production suite HitFilm and released a
free version of the software.
The software has been featured in films
such as The Hangover Part 2 and Angelina
Jolie-thriller Salt. Founder and chief
executive Josh Davies said he hoped to
inspire and support a community of young
creators and was expecting to reach one
million users by the end of the financial year.
The growth of video publishing websites
such as YouTube and a hands-on approach
from young people has opened a new
market to software developers. FXHome,
which has a turnover of around £1.5m and
employs 17 full-time staff, has created a
series of educational videos to highlight
how to use aspects of its software and to
help young people get in to film making.
A fourth Starbucks coffee shop is
opening in Norwich; the city already has
three Starbucks stores on St Stephens
Street, Haymarket and Castle Mall. The
new store, which has created 12 jobs,
will be run by the 23.5 degrees franchise
and will be the first drive-to store in the
city. The store’s team plan to provide
support for The Norwich Soup
Movement throughout the year through
volunteering, donating coffee, and a
variety of other initiatives.
Norfolk local authorities from Norfolk
teamed up with New Anglia LEP and
around 30 business ambassadors to
attend MIPIM UK in London to promote
a range of development opportunities
and raise Norfolk and Norwich’s profile
to a national and international audience
of property investors. The event was
attended by over 3000 participants,
with 350 exhibiting companies and 1500
visiting companies. An investment
prospectus was produced which included
sites from both Norfolk and Suffolk under
the Invest East brand: http://www.
newanglia.co.uk/wp-content/
uploads/2016/10/Invest-East-FINAL-Webversion-1.pdf
Page 11 Norwich Economic Barometer
London based tech company 52 Degrees
which provides hosting, broadband, fixed
line and mobile services to companies
UK-wide has decided to change colocation
provider to MIGSOLV’s Gatehouse data
centre in Norwich, to benefit from its
ultra-high security levels, 100 per cent
uptime and state-of-the art facilities. The
Gatehouse is one of the world’s most
secure data centres. Based in Norwich, it
avoids the terrorism risks facing London
and other big UK cities. MIGSOLV’s
Gatehouse data centre is on a nine-acre
site in Norwich which is free of terrorism
and flood risks. It incorporates a range of
rigorous security measures including data
hall access by iris recognition, CCTV
coverage of every square inch of the site,
microwave intruder detection and stateof-the-art fire protection systems.
Education
The Adapt Low Carbon Group at the
University of East Anglia (UEA) has
announced a new kind of investment fund
that will enable emerging UK enterprises
with sustainable products and services to
expand into Asia.
Established in partnership with the
Chinese start-up investor Cocoon
Networks, Adapt Cocoon Equity has
announced the Mulberry Green Fund, a
£20m venture capital fund that is looking
to invest in early stage enterprises in the
green-tech sector to nurture and develop
them for expansion into the Asian, and
particularly Chinese, markets.
The Prince’s Trust is providing free training
courses for young people who are aged
16-30 and looking for work. The ‘Get
Started’ programme includes short
courses that engage and develop young
people through themes such as sport or
the arts and support them into further
education, training or employment. The
‘Get Into’ programme includes short
courses that develop young people’s skills,
gives them work experience in a specific
sector and supports them into jobs.
Page 12 Norwich Economic Barometer
JSA Claimant Count
Unemployment
Council area started the period
significantly above the national, regional
and New Anglia LEP rates. During the past
year the gap narrowed and again, this
month the Norwich rate dropped below
the national rate for the first time since
records began.
Figure 4 shows the trend in JSA claimant
count unemployment since 2013. Rates
have fallen noticeably since the beginning of
the period. The rate in the Norwich City
Figure 4 Jobseeker’s Allowance unemployment 2013 to 2016
Table 1
JSA Claimant count rate unemployment
December
2015
November
2016
December
2016
Monthly
change
Annual
change
Great Britain
591,892
1.5
473,496
1.2
466,694
1.2
0
- 0.3%
East of
England
40.111
1.1
30,489
0.8
30,653
0.8
0
- 0.3%
New Anglia
LEP
10,379
1.1
6,925
0.7
6,808
0.7
0
- 0.4%
Norwich City
Council area*
1,536
1.6
1,042
1.1
1,045
1.1
0
- 0.5%
Norwich
urban area**
1,857
1.3
1,287
0.9
1,288
0.9
0
- 0.4%
Table 1 shows that each reported area saw reductions in JSA claimant count unemployment rates over the
year. Compared to November, JSA rates remained unchanged across each of the reported areas.
* The Norwich City council area comprises the following wards: Bowthorpe, Catton Grove, Crome, Eaton, Lakenham, Mancroft, Mile
Cross, Nelson, Sewell, Thorpe Hamlet, Town Close, University, Wensum
**The Norwich urban area comprises the following wards: Drayton North, Drayton South, Hellesdon North West, Hellesdon South
East, Old Catton and Sprowston West, Sprowston Central, Sprowston East, Taverham North, Taverham South, Thorpe St Andrew
North West, Thorpe St Andrew South East, Bowthorpe, Catton Grove, Crome, Eaton, Lakenham, Mancroft, Mile Cross, Nelson, Sewell,
Thorpe Hamlet, Town Close, University, Wensum, Cringleford, New Costessey, Old Costessey,
Page 13 Norwich Economic Barometer
Ward Level JSA Claimant Count Unemployment
Table 2
JSA Claimant Count Unemployment
December
2015
November
2016
December
2016
Monthly
change
Annual
change
Bowthorpe
122
1.5
83
1.0
84
1.0
0
- 0.5%
Catton Grove
151
2.1
103
1.4
107
1.5
+ 0.1%
- 0.6%
Crome
106
1.8
68
1.2
73
1.2
0
- 0.4%
Eaton
45
0.9
18
0.3
13
0.3
0
- 0.6%
Lakenham
107
1.9
78
1.3
80
1.4
+ 0.1%
- 0.5%
Mancroft
234
3.1
156
2.1
161
2.1
0
- 1.0%
Mile Cross
202
2.8
148
2.1
138
1.9
- 0.2%
- 0.9%
Nelson
48
0.7
28
0.4
30
0.4
0
- 0.3%
Sewell
83
1.1
64
0.9
66
0.9
0
- 0.2%
Thorpe Hamlet
145
1.6
95
1.1
103
1.2
+ 0.1%
- 0.4%
Town Close
92
1.2
55
0.7
50
0.6
- 0.1%
- 0.6%
University
49
0.6
43
0.5
42
0.5
0
- 0.1%
Wensum
152
1.9
103
1.3
98
1.2
- 0.1%
- 0.7%
Compared to this time last year, JSA
unemployment rates fell across all Norwich
wards. Over the month, the JSA rate in Catton
Grove., Lakenham and Thorpe Hamlet wards
increased slightly. Rates in Mile Cross, Town
Close and Wensum wards saw a slight fall.
Rates in the remaining wards were unchanged.
Figure 5 shows the wide variation in ward
rates across the city council area is clearly
evident. The differential between the
lowest (Eaton) and the highest (Mile Cross)
rates currently stands at 1.8 per cent.
Figure 5
Norwich wards JSA
unemployment
2013 to 2016
Page 14 Norwich Economic Barometer
JSA Claimant Count
Unemployment:
age and duration
Gender: in the city council area, one in
every three (34 per cent) out-of-work
claimants is a woman. Over the month,
female JSA rates remained the same across
the Norwich area (1.1 per cent), the region
(0.9 per cent), and nationally (1.3 per cent);
the rate increased slightly across the LEP
area (1 per cent).
The male JSA unemployment rate is higher
in Norwich (at 2.2 per cent of working age
males) than in the LEP area (1.7 per cent),
regionally (1.5 per cent) and nationally (2.3
per cent). Over the month, a marginal
increase in the rate took place across the
LEP area; the rate fell slightly in Norwich
but rates remained the same regionally
and nationally.
Norwich’s male JSA rate has remained
higher than rates in the LEP area and at the
regional and national levels since records
began in 1992. However, the current male
claimant count rate in Norwich is one of
the lowest ever recorded and has now
fallen below the national rate.
It is likely that Norwich’s relatively high
levels of male unemployment can be
attributed to the steady loss of
manufacturing jobs and the dominance of
the service sector in Norwich, which claims
a higher proportion of employees (90 per
cent) than in the LEP area (83 per cent),
regionally and nationally (85 per cent and
86 per cent respectively).
Duration: a certain amount of churn is
expected within the labour market as
people move between unemployment,
welfare benefits and employment. Around
55.9 per cent of JSA unemployment claims
in Norwich are for a period of less than six
months; higher than the proportion seen
across the LEP area (52.6 per cent) and
nationally (52.7 per cent) but marginally
lower than seen regionally (58.1 per cent).
The percentage of JSA claimants who are
recorded as being unemployed for more
than 12 months stands at 31.5 per cent in
Norwich compared to 32.5 per cent in the
LEP area, 26.6 per cent regionally and 31.7
per cent nationally. Relative to the previous
month, the percentage of long-term
unemployed has fallen slightly across each
of the reported areas.
It is widely recognised that long periods of
unemployment make it increasingly difficult
for affected individuals to find work,
particularly in a weak labour market.
However, over the year, the number of
people recorded as long term unemployed
in Norwich has fallen from 385 people in
December 2015 to 330 currently.
Page 15 Norwich Economic Barometer
Figure 5 JSA unemployment 2013 to 2016 for 18-24 year olds
Age: in Norwich 11.4 per cent (120) of JSA
claimants are aged 18 to 24 years, a higher
proportion than that seen across the LEP
area (10.5 per cent), regionally (11.2 per
cent) and nationally (11.4 per cent). This
month, the percentage of JSA claimants
aged 18-24 years fell across each of the
reported areas.
As a percentage of the 18-24 year old age
group (rather than as a proportion of JSA
claimants), the JSA unemployment rate
stands at 0.5 per cent in Norwich; it is
slightly higher across the LEP area (0.6 per
cent) and the region (0.7 per cent) and
nationally (0.9 per cent).
Movement in the JSA unemployment rate
over the period 2013 to 2016 is
summarised in Figure 6.
Wensum, Mancroft, Bowthorpe, Nelson,
Sewell and Crome wards have proportions
of claimants aged 18-24 years above that of
the Norwich average. Mancroft ward has
the highest number of claimants aged
between 18-24 years (20).
At the other end of the age scale, Norwich
has a lower proportion of JSA
unemployment claimants aged 50 years and
over (29.4 per cent, 330 people) compared
to the LEP area (33.5 per cent) and
regionally (32.1 per cent) and nationally
(31.1 per cent).
Against the previous month, the
percentage of JSA claimants aged 50 years
or more grew marginally across each of the
reported areas.
Page 16 Norwich Economic Barometer
Housing Benefit
Many housing benefit claimants are
pensioners, people with disabilities, carers
or people who are in low waged work. It
should be noted that resident earnings in
Norwich are relatively low and this will be a
contributing factor to the number of people
claiming housing benefit.
Table 3
Table 3 shows that the number of housing
benefit claimants in the Norwich local
authority area fell by 6 claims during
December. Over the year, housing
benefit claims in Norwich have fallen by
5.3 per cent. Comparable national data is
not available because of a time lag in
data collection.
Norwich City Council housing benefit*** claimants
Number of claimants
Monthly change
December 2015
17,914
- 95 (- 0.5%)
January 2016
17,811
- 103 (- 0.6%)
February 2016
17.679
- 132 (- 0.7%)
March 2016
17,254
- 425 (- 2.4%)
April 2016
17,103
- 151 (- 0.9%)
May 2016
17,278
+ 175 (+ 1.0%)
June 2016
17,287
+ 9 (+ 0.05%)
July 2016
17,213
- 74 (- 0.4%)
August 2016
17,228
+ 15 (+ 0.08%)
September 2016
17,138
- 90 (- 0.5%)
October 2016
17,022
- 116 ( - 0.7%)
November 2016
16,954
- 68 ( - 0.3%)
December 2016
16,948
- 6 (- 0.03%)
*** Housing benefit is an income related benefit designed to help people on low incomes pay for rented accommodation
whether in, or out, of work.
Housing benefit numbers include people who are claiming council tax benefit only
Page 17 Norwich Economic Barometer
Young people (16-18 years)
Not in Education, Employment
or Training (NEET)
The latest update received from Norfolk
County Council is that Norwich’s NEET
figure stands at 6.4 per cent compared to
3.7 per cent at the county level.
Average House Prices
The House Price Index produced by HM
Land Registry is the most accurate and
independent house price index available for
England. According to HM Land Registry’s
House Price Index (Crown copyright) over
the year, average house prices increased by
9.7 per cent in Norwich and by 7.4 per cent
across England. Figure 7 summarises average
house price movements since January 2014.
During October average house prices fell
by 0.06 per cent in England but grew by 0.7
per cent in Norwich compared to the
previous month. The average house price in
Norwich currently stands at £194,111
against £232,655 for England.
Figure 7 HM Land Registry average house prices 2014-16
Page 18 Norwich Economic Barometer
Appendix
Contact details:
Sharon Quantrell, economic development, Norwich City Council.
e: [email protected]
Data Sources:
Figure 4: JSA claimant count – NOMIS, Crown copyright
Figure 5: Ward JSA unemployment – NOMIS, Crown copyright
Figure 6: JSA claimant count 18-24 year olds – NOMIS, Crown copyright
Figure 7: House Price Index, HM Land Registry, Crown copyright
Tables 1 and 2: JSA claimant count – NOMIS, Crown copyright
Table 3: Housing benefit claimants - Norwich City Council
News stories from a variety of sources including EDP/Evening News; Business in East Anglia;
Office of National Statistics; Reuters; BBC; Markit/CIPS PMI; Markit Monthly Economic
Overview: University of East Anglia; Norwich University of the Arts, City College Norwich.
Page 19 Norwich Economic Barometer