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The Demography of Latin America
and the Caribbean since 1950
José Miguel GUZMÁN*, Jorge RODRÍGUEZ*, Jorge MARTÍNEZ*,
Juan Manuel CONTRERAS** and Daniela GONZÁLEZ*
I. Introduction
1. A region of great diversity
Behind its apparent uniformity, the region comprising Latin America
and the Caribbean is extremely diverse, reflecting a long history of human
settlement. The massive inflow of migrants from Europe and Africa during the
colonization process contributed substantially to long-term population growth
in the region, though the population actually declined at the time of initial
contacts between European migrants and the Amerindian civilizations. When
the conquistadors first set foot in America, the continent had at least 2,000
indigenous languages and an immense variety of social models, ranging from
the most complex and advanced, such as those of the Aztecs, the Mayas and
the Incas, to the most simple, such as that of the Amazonian rainforest
populations(1). Today, there are more than 500 indigenous population groups,
totalling an estimated 30 to 50 million individuals. These communities are
largest in Peru, Mexico, Bolivia and Guatemala. In the latter two countries
indigenous people represent more than half the total population (Appendix
Table A.1.)(2).
* Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre, ECLAC Population Division,
United Nations, Santiago, Chile
** United Nations Population Fund, Mexico City, Mexico
Translated by Jonathan Mandelbaum, Catriona Dutreuilh
(1) The indigenous populations of Latin America went through four major crisis cycles that
threatened their survival: the conquest of the sixteenth century; the Bourbon reforms in the late
eighteenth century; the expansion of the liberal republics in the second half of the nineteenth
century and, from the end of the twentieth century, neoliberal structural adjustments and
globalization (Toledo, 2005).
(2) Traditionally considered as rural, the indigenous populations are now very diverse,
ranging from isolated rural communities to large urban populations with urban-rural and
transnational mobility.
Population-E 2006, 61(5-6), 519-576
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
From the sixteenth century, the colonization process went hand in hand
with the massive import of slaves, while the indigenous populations were
vanquished and enslaved to provide manual labour, notably in the mines and in
agriculture. They were soon decimated by repeated massacres and epidemics.
The slave trade between Africa and the Caribbean (Cuba and Saint Domingue),
Brazil and other countries began very soon after the conquest and grew in scale
over the seventeenth century with the development of crop plantations, notably
sugar cane. The abolition of slavery was foreshadowed by numerous slave
revolts and the creation of the Republic of Haiti in 1804. The other countries
soon followed suit, and Brazil was the last country to abolish slavery in 1888.
The geography of the region is very varied. It stretches from the 32nd
parallel, at the border between the United States and the Mexican state of Baja
California in the north, to the Argentine and Chilean islands of Tierra del
Fuego in the south (see Map on page 575). Arid zones in northern Mexico and
the Atacama desert in northern Chile give way to dense rainforest in
Amazonia and parts of Central America. Its topography ranges from the plains
of Venezuela and the Argentine Pampas to the mountainous regions of the
Andean States, from the lowlands of Guyana to the high peaks of the Andes
mountain range. These vast continental expanses contrast with the many small
island territories of the Caribbean.
Altogether, the region includes more than fifty countries and territories,
some with very small populations, such as the islands of Grenada and
Dominica, and others, such as Mexico and Brazil, with many millions of
inhabitants. This chronicle analyses data for 35 countries (with a population
of at least 80,000 in 2005) totalling more than 560 million people. For the
purposes of this chronicle, the countries are grouped together geographically
into four regions: Mesoamerica (Mexico and the countries of Central
America), the Caribbean (including Latin and non-Latin countries) the
Andean countries (Venezuela, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia) and the
Southern Cone (Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay) alongside Brazil.
2. The region in the world: demographic overview
The estimated population of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2005
was 563.7 million, i.e. 8.7% of the world total (Appendix Table A.10), and
current population growth rates in the region are moderate in global terms.
The annual growth rate is 1.4%, slightly above the global rate – around 1.2%
– but below that of Africa, and of sub-Saharan Africa especially, where it
stands at 2.3%. The region’s population increased by 7.7 million per year
between 2000 and 2005, representing more than 10% of world population
growth over the period.
Fertility in the region was estimated at 2.6 children per woman in 20002005, slightly below the world average (2.7). The fertility level is close to that
of Asia (2.5), and much lower than that of Africa (5.0).
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
521
For the region as a whole, life expectancy is estimated at close to 72 years
(68 years for men and 75 years for women), slightly more than 4 years above
the global average of 67 years.
International migration is increasing, with estimated negative net
migration of 3.4 million over the period 2000-2005.
3. Population growth above the world average
Despite relatively high mortality levels, the growth rate in the region has
remained above that of the world population since the eighteenth century
(Table 1). Its relative weight has risen from just 2% of the world total in 1750
to almost 7% in 1950 and 9% in 2000. It was in the twentieth century, the
second half especially, that the most sustained demographic growth occurred
in the region, qualified by many as a population explosion. While the world
population was multiplied by 3.7 between 1900 and 2000, that of Latin
America and the Caribbean increased seven-fold.
TABLE 1.– POPULATION GROWTH IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
AND WORLD POPULATION GROWTH FROM 1750 TO 2000
Region
World
Latin America
and the Caribbean
Percentage
of world population
Population (in millions)
1750
791
1800
978
1850
1,262
1900
1,650
1950
2,519
2000
6,086
16
24
38
74
167
523
2.0
2.5
3.0
4.5
6.6
8.6
Mean annual growth rate (%)
1750-1800 1800-1850 1850-1900 1900-1950 1950-2000
World
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.8
1.8
Latin America
and the Caribbean
0.3
0.9
1.3
1.6
2.3
Sources: United Nations (1999); United Nations (2005).
4. Demographic and socioeconomic aspects of regional diversity
The populations of the countries in the region are of very unequal size.
Almost 80% of the population live in just six of the region’s fifty or more
states and territories: Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Peru and Venezuela.
Brazil and Mexico alone, with 188 and 107 million inhabitants respectively,
account for more than half of the region’s population (53%). At the other
extreme, the twenty or so Caribbean countries represent hardly more than 7%
of the total (Table 2).
Countries with larger surface areas tend to have more inhabitants, but lower
population densities. The highest densities are found in the Caribbean (more than
200 inhabitants per sq.km), ahead of Mesoamerica (though with 300 inhabitants per
sq.km, the density of El Salvador is higher than that of certain Caribbean countries),
the Andean countries and lastly the Southern Cone and Brazil (Table 2).
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE 2.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: TOTAL POPULATION AND POPULATION
DENSITY BY SUB-REGION AND COUNTRY IN 2005
Sub-region and country
Population
(thousands)
Density
inhab. per sq.km
Mesoamerica
146,897
74
Costa Rica
4,322
85
El Salvador
6,874
327
Guatemala
12,700
116
Honduras
7,347
64
Mexico
106,943
55
Nicaragua
5,483
42
Panama
3,228
43
Caribbean
41,521
217
Bahamas
321
23
Barbados
272
627
Belize
266
12
Cuba
11,257
102
Dominica
79
105
Dominican Republic
8,993
183
French Guiana
187
2
Grenada
80
299
Guadeloupe
446
263
Guyana
768
3
Haiti
9,151
307
Jamaica
2,701
241
Martinique
397
359
Netherlands Antilles
224
228
Puerto Rico
3,915
446
Saint Lucia
152
298
Suriname
442
3
Trinidad and Tobago
1,311
254
559
–
Others(a)
Andean countries
123,202
32
Bolivia
9,427
8
Colombia
46,039
40
Ecuador
13,211
47
Peru
27,947
22
Venezuela
26,577
29
Southern Cone and Brazil
252,130
21
Argentina
38,592
14
Brazil
187,601
22
Chile
16,267
22
Paraguay
6,215
15
Uruguay
3,455
20
Latin America and the Caribbean
563,750
27
(a) Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Falkland Islands, Turks and
Caicos Islands, British Virgin Islands and US Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint
Vincent and the Grenadines, and the Panama Canal Zone (between 1970 and 1975).
Sources: United Nations (2004) and United Nations (2005) for density. CELADE estimate for
population (available online at:http//www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm), except
for data concerning the English-speaking Caribbean taken from United Nations (2005).
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
523
Though the economic and social indicators of the region are around the
world average, and in some cases above it, ECLAC (3) estimates for 2005
indicate that 41% of Latin Americans live in poverty and 17% in extreme
poverty. In absolute figures, this represents a total of 213 million poor people.
These figures tally with those of gross national income per capita, estimated
by the World Bank at USD 3,704 in 2004, compared with a world average of
USD 6,487. Per capita income varies considerably from one country to
another, reaching more than USD 10,000 in certain small Caribbean islands,
but no more than around USD 1,000 in Haiti, Nicaragua and Bolivia
(Appendix Table A.2.).
The high levels of poverty are due not only to the low level of economic
activity in many countries, but also to the persistence of highly inegalitarian
social structures (ECLAC, 2006). Latin America and the Caribbean is the
region of the world with the largest income disparities, and there are no signs
of substantial change in the short or medium term. Poverty levels are highest
among the rural communities, among indigenous populations and those of
African origin. The combination of these characteristics creates an accumulation
of disadvantages which perpetuates the social and intergenerational
reproduction of poverty.
This poverty is exacerbated by the inability of the limited formal labour
markets to absorb the constant arrival of new generations of working-age
adults. Continuing the trend of the 1980s, the rate of employment in the
informal urban sector rose from 43% in 1990 to 47% in 2003 (Weller, 2005).
The demographic indicators also vary from one country to another.
According to CELADE(4) data, fertility has fallen sharply in most countries.
Though it remains above 4 children per woman in Guatemala, it is well below
replacement level in Cuba (1.6 children per woman). Life expectancy is
78 years in Costa Rica, but below 60 years in Haiti.
II. Progress in the collection and availability
of demographic data
In the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, population censuses were
conducted in the region (Sánchez-Albornoz, 1977). During the first half of the
twentieth century, several countries organized regular censuses, once every
ten years for Mexico, Chile and Panama, or more frequently in some cases. In
Honduras, six censuses took place between 1925 and 1950(5). From the 1950s,
(3) ECLAC: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Comisión
Económica para América Latina y el Caribe): http://www.eclac.cl
(4) CELADE: Latin-American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (Centro
Latinoamericano y caribeño de Demografia) – Population Division of ECLAC: http://
www.eclac.cl/celade/default.asp
(5) See the site of the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) of Hunduras at http://
www.ine-hn.org/censos/indice.htm
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
most countries introduced decennial census programmes. For political,
financial or other reasons, some countries did not respect this time interval
and allowed more than ten years to elapse between two censuses. All the
countries of Latin America and the Spanish-speaking Caribbean conducted a
census in the early 1970s, though several did not take part in the census series
of the following decade and, above all, that of the decade 1990-1999,
primarily because of the economic crisis in the region (Appendix Table A.3).
Most countries have held a census since 2000, and results now become
available much more quickly thanks to progress in data processing and
dissemination via the Internet (Jaspers and Poulard, 2002). Censuses are the
main source of data in the countries of the region, not only for population size
and distribution, but also for internal migration and certain aspects of
international migration. They also provide a means to estimate fertility and
infant mortality and to break down the statistics by geographical area.
Despite progress in the collection and dissemination of demographic
data, census under-reporting still exceeds 3% in many countries (Table 3).
Progress is uneven, with signs of improvement in countries with high levels of
under-reporting (Bolivia, Ecuador, Guatemala), but also a deterioration in
other countries where under-reporting is low (Argentina and Chile).
TABLE 3.– ESTIMATED UNDER-REPORTING RATE IN POPULATION CENSUSES
CONDUCTED FROM 1950 TO 2000 (%)
Country
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Argentina
1.4
3.3
2.8
1.1
1.1
2.8
Bolivia
0.7
–
6.0
–
7.7
4.5
Brazil
3.8
4.2
3.4
2.6
3.8
2.9
Chile
5.9
4.0
5
1.6
2
3.8
Colombia
8.3
2.8
13.9
5.8
11.3
–
Costa Rica
6.7
2.2
4.1
7.8
–
2.9
Cuba
5.0
0.7
0.2
–
0.1
Dominican Republic
9.5
6.0
8.2
5.8
6.3
–
Ecuador
6.5
6.1
2.6
5.3
6.9
3.2
El Salvador
4.7
5.1
3.8
4.4
–
Guatemala
10.5
7.9
13.8
15.6
14.5
5.8
Haiti
5.2
–
6.1
9.3
–
–
Honduras
0.7
3.2
8.3
7.2
–
–
Jamaica
0.9
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.0
Mexico
6.9
5.3
3.4
1.6
3.1
2.5
Nicaragua
3.5
6.3
11.0
1.0
Panama
13.0
5.7
4.8
6.1
3.1
3.5
Paraguay
11.4
6.6
4.6
8.4
7.1
Peru
3.1
2.7
4.2
3.0
Trinidad and Tobago
–
–
–
–
–1.7
2.0
Uruguay
1.7
1.4
1.9
2.3
Venezuela
2.8
3.1
4.5
7.4
8.9
7.5
Note: The rate of under-reporting is estimated by comparing population projections with the census
enumeration. A negative rate indicates that the enumerated population is higher than the projected
population (due to imprecise parameters used for the projection or adjustments to crude census data).
Source: CELADE, cited by Tacla (2006), and authors' calculations.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
525
The quality of civil registration statistics covering recent decades is
variable. Though coverage has improved in some countries, in others, where the
registers of births and deaths are not exhaustive, the data collected are very
incomplete. Though death registers are showing signs of improvement in most
countries (Appendix Table A.4), under-reporting of deaths is nevertheless close to
40% or even higher in four countries (Paraguay, Peru, Nicaragua and Dominican
Republic), and ranges between 10% and 30% in at least seven countries. Birth
registers are generally of better quality than death registers, but they do not appear
to be improving in countries where quality is poor (Ecuador, Brazil, Dominican
Republic and Venezuela). Note that the registers in Guatemala (for births
especially) are of relatively high quality, despite the country’s extreme poverty.
For all these reasons, the population estimates of many countries based on vital
records are unreliable, especially those concerning mortality.
The standardized data are taken notably from the Demographic and Health
Surveys (DHS) and from reproductive health surveys financed by the CDC
(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) in the USA (Appendix Table A.5).
These surveys, along with the national surveys conducted outside these
programmes(6) are the most important data sources for estimating fertility, infant
mortality and nuptiality. National surveys also focus increasingly on individual
sexual and reproductive behaviours. The range of information collected has
broadened in scope to include gender issues (surveys increasingly include both
men and women), HIV-AIDS, maternal mortality, violence against women, etc.
Three important facts should be highlighted however in relation to these national
survey programmes. First, not all countries are covered by these surveys, and not
all have expressed the wish to extend their thematic coverage. This is the case for
Chile, Argentina, Uruguay and several Caribbean countries. Second, not all
surveys are strictly comparable. Certain variations in fertility and infant mortality
statistics may be due to a problem of data accuracy. Last, these surveys provide
little information on adult mortality.
International migration data is also problematic, due to the difficulties in
quantifying the massive flows of non-registered migrants. To remedy the lack of
information and make the most of available data sources, CELADE set up the
IMILA project (Project on Investigation of International Migration in Latin
America) several decades ago(7). The information provided by this project is
based on Latin American census data and gives, for each census, the number of
persons who were born (or lived five years previously) in another country. Data
on foreign-born persons include some of their socio-demographic characteristics
(sex, age, fertility, infant mortality, conjugal status, educational level, labour
market status). Statistics from the IMILA database are also widely used in studies
(6) Demographic surveys may be conducted under international programmes such as the
World Fertility Survey (WFS) and the American Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Many
national household surveys conducted include demographic modules, notably the PNAD in Brazil
(Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios). A wide range of surveys have been conducted
outside the main international programmes in Mexico, Uruguay and elsewhere. We did not use
national sources for this chronicle as they are not always comparable.
(7) For a recent update on the IMILA programme, see Bay and Martinez (2005).
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526
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
of international migration in Latin America to analyse the causes and effects of
this migration (ECLAC-CELADE-IOM, 1999; Martínez, 2003a, 2003b and 2000;
Pellegrino, 1993, 1995 and 2000; Villa, 1996). Household survey data can be used
to study international migration. They provide information on immigrants'
characteristics and on the links between families and their members who have
migrated abroad. CELADE also collects data on Latin Americans enumerated in
countries outside the region, notably in the USA and Canada. Last, the registers of
arrivals and departures, which track the continuous flows of travellers, provide
data on cyclical fluctuations in migratory flows.
III. The demographic transition models
Like other regions of the world, Latin America has undergone more
rapid demographic transition than today’s more developed regions. Mortality
started to decline in the first half of the twentieth century, while birth rates
remained high, and even increased in some countries between 1950 and 1960
(Guzmán and Rodriguez, 1993). Fertility then started dropping rapidly
throughout most of the region from the early 1960s.
1. Rapid natural growth
The current population growth rate in the region is estimated at 1.5%.
The growth rates recorded in the 1950s and 1960s were higher than in all
other parts of the world except Africa. The combination of high fertility and
declining mortality at the start of the Latin American transition period
produced growth rates above 3% in 11 of the 22 countries of the region
(Table 4). These rates remained above 2% until the mid 1990s in more than
TABLE 4.– DISTRIBUTION OF LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES (a)
BY NATURAL AND OVERALL GROWTH RATES,
Natural growth rate
Period
3% or
more
2 to 3% 1 to 2%
1950-2005
Overall growth rate
Below
1%
3% or
more
2 to 3% 1 to 2%
1950-1955
7
11
4
0
6
1955-1960
8
10
4
0
7
1960-1965
11
8
3
0
8
1965-1970
8
12
2
0
5
1970-1975
5
14
3
0
4
1975-1980
4
14
4
0
4
1980-1985
4
14
2
2
1
1985-1990
3
12
6
1
2
1990-1995
2
12
6
2
0
1995-2000
1
8
10
3
0
2000-2005
0
6
13
3
0
(a) This includes the countries of Latin America and five Caribbean
Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago (22 countries in all).
Source: CELADE, population estimates, www.eclac.cl/celade.
Below
1%
11
5
0
10
5
0
9
5
0
11
5
1
11
5
2
12
4
2
14
4
3
10
6
4
10
8
4
7
11
4
5
12
5
countries: Cuba, Dominican
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
527
half the countries. Since 1995, the growth rate in most countries has been
under 2%, and three have even fallen below 1%. There are still very large
differences between countries however, with a natural growth rate that ranges
from 0.5% in Cuba to almost 3% in Guatemala.
Though the birth rate has been a key factor of population growth,
migration has also played an important role. Today, in more than half the
countries of the region, emigration is slowing overall growth, and in many
countries has done so for the last five decades.
2. Not one but many transitions
The demographic transition is one of the most important social changes to
have affected the region over the last century. It has produced not only a reduction
in the absolute number of births over the short term, but also a medium- and longterm restructuring of the population pyramid. As elsewhere in the world, the
models of demographic transition are very diverse. In Latin America, four main
models can be identified (Figure 1).
Firstly, two of the Southern Cone countries – Argentina and Uruguay –
began their transition very early, following a similar pattern to Europe. The
fertility decline occurred in these countries in the first half of the twentieth
century, and by the 1950s the average number of children per woman was
close to 3. In Argentina, fertility started falling in around 1915-1920, with a
total fertility rate that fell from 6.2 children per woman at that time to 3.2 in
1947 (Pantelides, 1996) (8) . As mortality also fell sharply before 1960, the
natural growth rate of these two countries was already below 1.5% at the start
of the twentieth century. European immigration is seen as a key factor behind
the early fertility transition in these two countries. They belong to the
category of countries where the transition is very advanced, alongside Cuba,
where fertility and mortality were already low in the 1950s, but where fertility
rose after the revolution, pushing natural growth to more than 2.5% in the
early 1960s. For the period 2000-2005, Cuba is the country with the lowest
natural growth in the region (around 0.5%), followed by Uruguay, Trinidad
and Tobago and other smaller Caribbean countries with growth rates below
1%. In these countries, emigration has slowed down population growth, with
“losses” representing 25% to 50% of natural growth during certain periods. In
the Caribbean, migration became the main regulator of demographic growth
from the 1960s, following a dynamic that was independent of economic
cycles in the host countries (Guengant, 1993). Argentina, on the other hand,
has remained a receiving country, attracting immigrants from across its
borders, so its population growth has declined less sharply.
At the other extreme, we find countries which are currently in a
situation of early or moderate transition (Chackiel, 2004). These countries
(8) According to the author, this early transition can be explained by the massive arrival of
immigrants from countries with lower fertility, and by the rapid and equally early urbanization
process.
5_6(3)ok_America.fm Page 528 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:29 13
528
60
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
Rate (‰)
Ined 338 06
Argentina
50
40
60
Rate (‰)
Cuba
50
40
natural increase
30
births
20
Ined 339 06
births
30
natural increase
20
10
deaths
10
deaths
0
0
Rate (‰)
Ined 340 06
Brazil
50
births
60
40
30
30
natural increase
10
Rate (‰)
Ined 342 06
Chile
births
40
60
Rate (‰)
Ined 343 06
Trinidad and Tobago
50
births
40
30
natural increase
30
20
20
10
deaths
natural increase
deaths
10
0
0
Rate (‰)
Ined 344 06
Guatemala
50
births
40
60
Rate (‰)
Ined 345 06
Bolivia
births
50
40
30
natural increase
20
natural increase
30
20
deaths
10
10
deaths
55
50
19
19
50
-5
5
55
19 60
60
19 65
65
19 70
70
-7
19 5
75
19 80
80
-8
19 5
85
19 90
90
19 95
95
20 00
00
-0
5
0
-5
5
-6
19 0
60
19 65
65
19 70
70
-7
19 5
75
19 80
80
19 85
85
19 90
90
19 95
95
20 00
00
-0
5
0
19
deaths
0
50
60
natural increase
10
deaths
Mexico
births
20
0
60
Ined 341 06
50
40
20
Rate (‰)
19
60
Figure 1.– Examples of demographic transition in Latin America
and the Caribbean 1950-2005
Source: Appendix Tables A.6, A.7, A.8.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
529
began their fertility transition much later and much more slowly. They include
Guatemala and Honduras in the Mesoamerican zone, Haiti in the Caribbean,
and Bolivia in the Andean countries. These countries all began their transition
with high fertility levels and their growth remained practically stable up to the
1980s (and for Guatemala its has changed little since then), either because
there was no significant change in fertility or, when it did change, because the
birth rate and the death rate both fell at the same speed. Haiti is a special case.
With high mortality and a persistently high birth rate, the population growth
rate was quite low in the early 1960s (less than 2%), but had risen to almost
3% by the early 1980s. It was not until the 1990s that growth rates returned to
the levels of the mid-1960s. Overall population growth is much smaller,
however, due to large-scale emigration.
The third and largest group comprises the countries that follow the most
typical transition model over the period. It includes the region’s two largest
countries, Mexico and Brazil, along with four of the five Andean countries
(Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela), three Mesoamerican countries
(Panama, Costa Rica and El Salvador), and two Caribbean countries
(Dominican Republic and Jamaica). In practically all these countries, the
natural growth rate reached close to 3% or even well above in the 1950-60s.
Mexico (Figure 2) and Brazil are at the two extremes. Transition in Mexico
started much later, with a natural growth rate that only began falling in the late
1970s, a decade after Brazil.
Chile and Trinidad and Tobago are in an intermediate position. Their
transition process is similar to that of the previous group, but starting from
lower rates.
120
Rate (%)
Population (millions)
3.75
Natural growth rate
100
3.25
80
2.75
60
Population
2.25
40
Overall growth rate
20
0
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
Ined 346 06
1980
1990
1.75
1.25
2000
Year
Figure 2.– Population size, natural and overall growth rates in Mexico,
1930-2000
Source: Tuirán et al. (2002).
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530
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
Note that in many of these countries – Mexico, Dominican Republic, El
Salvador, Bolivia, Peru and Colombia – emigration has held back overall
population growth, while growth in other countries, such as Venezuela (until
the 1980s) and Costa Rica, has been accelerated by immigration. In
Venezuela, for example, the population increased by 40% between 1970 and
1980. In Costa Rica, the growth rate remained stable in the 1990s, due mainly
to a large inflow of Nicaraguans who represent 83% of the country’s
immigrants and 8.3% of its population (Cortes, 2005).
IV. Diverse and changing fertility trends
1. Major changes in intensity and timing
The fertility decline is one of the major social changes affecting the
region. The number of children per woman has fallen practically everywhere,
resulting in a new demographic regime characterized by a restructuring of the
family unit. Over the last four decades of the twentieth century, the small
family ideal (which emerged at the start of the transition) became widespread,
establishing the norm of two or three children per woman.
The key features of this process are as follows (Guzmán, 1996):
a) At the start of the transition, fertility rates were very high in several
countries, reaching 7.5 children or more per woman;
b) Not all countries started out from the same level or followed the same
pattern, resulting in large differences between countries;
c) In most countries, the transition began in the early or mid 1960s;
d) The use of contraception, reflecting growing demand for fertility control,
combined with greater availability and accessibility of contraceptive methods, is
considered to be the key factor behind the fertility decline;
e) The higher marriage rate in the 1950s produced a certain rise in
fertility during the pre-transition period following the Second World War
(Guzmán and Rodríguez, 1993), but does not appear, in general, to have
significantly affected the transition process itself;
f) This general change is associated with broad social and spatial
diversity which has amplified further over the last decade in some countries.
2. Diverse patterns of change
In the 1960s, the total fertility rate (TFR) was above 6 children per
woman in two-thirds of countries, and above 7 children in four (Figure 3). In
the early 2000s, fertility in several Caribbean countries was below replacement
level, i.e. 2.1 children per woman. This was the case in Barbados, Trinidad and
Tobago and Cuba, where the TFR has remained low for the last fifteen years or
5_6(3)ok_America.fm Page 531 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:29 13
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
531
more. In the Southern Cone, fertility is now slightly below replacement level in
Chile, while other countries, such as Brazil, are moving close to it(9). The total
fertility rate is above 3 children per woman in eight countries, including
Guatemala with 4 children per woman, the highest rate in the region.
Country
Ined 347 06
Barbados
Trinidad and Tobago
Cuba
Puerto Rico
Martinique
Chile
Netherlands Antilles
Guadeloupe
Saint Lucia
Costa Rica
Bahamas
Uruguay
Guyana
Brazil
Argentina
Jamaica
Mexico
Suriname
Latin America
Colombia
Panama
Venezuela
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
Peru
Salvador
Belize
Nicaragua
French Guiana
Honduras
Paraguay
Bolivia
Haiti
Guatemala
0
1
2
1960-65
3
4
2000-05
5
6
7
8
Number of children per woman
Figure 3.– Total fertility rates in 1960-1965 and in 2000-2005
Source: Appendix Table A.11.
Trend analysis reveals several different fertility transition models
(Figure 4). Two Southern Cone countries, Argentina and Uruguay, pioneered the
transition in the early twentieth century, under the effect of economic and social
development and European immigration (ECLAC, 2006; Pantelides, 1996). It is
interesting to note that for these two countries, the changes observed from the
1960s were more modest than elsewhere. They are not the countries of the region
with the lowest fertility rate today. In the Caribbean, Cuba can be seen as an
example of relatively early transition, interrupted by the political and economic
transformations following the 1959 revolution. Estimated Cuban fertility had
dropped to below 4 children per woman by the end of the 1950s (Alfonso-Fraga,
2006). Several Caribbean countries have followed a quite similar pattern.
(9) In 12 Latin American cities out of the 15 studied, young people aged around 20 in 2000
should have a number of children close to two (Rosero-Bixby 2004).
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532
8
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
Number of children per woman
7
Ined 348 06
Group 1
Nicaragua
Honduras
6
Paraguay
5
Bolivia
Haiti
4
Guatemala
3
Cuba
Group 3
Chile
2
Uruguay
Argentina
1
0
8
1950-55 1955-60 1960-65 1965-70 1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05
Years
Number of children per woman
Ined 349 06
7
Latin America
Costa Rica
6
5
Brazil
Group 2
Mexico
Colombia
4
Panama
Venezuela
3
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
2
Peru
El Salvador
1
0
8
1950-55 1955-60 1960-65 1965-70 1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05
Years
Number of children per woman
Ined 350 06
7
Netherlands Antilles
Bahamas
6
Barbados
Belize
5
Guadeloupe
Guyana
4
3
Group 4
Jamaica
Martinique
Saint Lucia
2
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
1
0
1950-55 1955-60 1960-65 1965-70 1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05
Years
Figure 4.– Fertility transition in Latin America, 1950-2005
Source: Appendix Table A.11.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
533
The second, and largest, group of countries, with a fertility rate of
between 2 and 3 children per woman, began the transition process in the
1960s. This group includes the two most populated countries of the region,
Mexico and Brazil, three Mesoamerican countries, the Andean countries
except for Bolivia and the Dominican Republic in the Caribbean. This group
includes countries such as Costa Rica, where fertility declined very rapidly –
by 3 children per woman in just ten years (between 1960-1965 and 19701975) – and others such as Mexico, where the fertility transition began late (in
the late 1960s) and accelerated rapidly at the start of the next decade, after a
national family planning policy was implemented in 1974 (Cosio-Zavala,
1994). The fertility decline in Brazil, though varying from one region to
another, is a country-wide trend that has continued through periods of both
growth and crisis(10), despite the absence of explicit government support for
family planning.
A third group includes three Mesoamerican countries (Guatemala,
Honduras and Nicaragua), along with the least developed countries of each
sub-region (Paraguay for the Southern Cone, Haiti for the Caribbean and
Bolivia for the Andean countries). In these countries, the downtrend is slower
and the total fertility rate remains above 3 children per woman, and even 4 in
Guatemala. These countries are among the poorest in the region and have a
large indigenous population (Bolivia and Guatemala).
The non-Latin countries of the Caribbean are analysed separately to
highlight the diversity of situations in the region. Independently of Cuba, the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, already discussed, and with the exception of
Belize where fertility decline follows a similar pattern to that of neighbouring
Central American countries, the countries of this sub-region can be included
either in the first group (Barbados and the Netherlands Antilles) or the second
(all other countries).
3. Earlier fertility timing
One of the characteristics of the fertility decline over the last four
decades is a forward shift in fertility timing. For the region as a whole, the
mean age at childbearing has fallen from around 30 years in the 1960s to 27
years in 2000-2005. Likewise, at the start of the transition, fertility was
highest at ages 25-29, compared with 20-24 today.
Changes in fertility rate by age group (Appendix Table A.12) do not
appear to reflect a trend towards delayed childbearing (Chackiel, 2004). With
the decline in fertility and the smaller number of births, the mean age at
childbearing is likely to decrease further, though it may rise again if age at
first birth increases. However, the transition process under way in the region
does not seem to be converging towards the delayed fertility model that
prevails in western Europe. This may be linked to the fact that most couples
(10) For
more details on the determinants of fertility change in Brazil, see Martine (1996).
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
prefer to have children immediately after marriage, and that age at marriage is
falling or stabilizing. As we shall see, the fact that age at first union remains
unchanged and relatively low testifies to the continuing influence of cultural
factors that encourage early fertility.
In a few countries, however, births are tending to be delayed, or have
always been late and are still so today. Chile and Uruguay are interesting
cases in point: in both these countries, the marked fertility decline over the
last 15 years is due almost exclusively to the drop in fertility between ages 20
and 29 (INE, 2004; Paredes, 2003) while, paradoxically, adolescent fertility is
increasing.
4. Adolescent fertility: little change in fertility timing
Compared with other regions of the world, one particular feature of
adolescent fertility – i.e. before age 20 – in Latin America is its higher-thanexpected level in relation to the demographic transition process and the level
of economic and social development in the region (11) . Indeed, adolescent
fertility is not declining steadily in the same way as overall fertility
(Appendix Table A.13). After falling in most countries at the start of the
transition, it has stabilized and even risen slightly in some cases, notably
during the 1980s and 1990s (Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Brazil, Dominican
Republic and Colombia). This increase mainly concerns the youngest
teenagers. In Chile for example, between 1985 and 1998, the fertility rate rose
from 57 to 71 per thousand at age 17 (a 25% increase), from 32 to 50 per
thousand at age 16 (a 57% increase) and from 13 to 23 per thousand at age 15
(up 73%) (Rodríguez, 2005). However, recent data from the National
Statistics Institute show a reversal of this trend, with adolescent fertility
falling from 65 to 55 per thousand between 2000 and 2003 (www.ine.cl).
The most recent data from the DHS and CDC surveys confirm a certain
increase in the adolescent fertility rates in Ecuador, Dominican Republic,
Colombia and Haiti, while these rates are falling in Guatemala, Bolivia,
Belize, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Paraguay and Peru (Table 5). Beyond existing
differences and recent trends, the age at first birth remains low, despite an
increase in women’s educational level which should delay childbearing.
The current model of adolescent fertility does not correspond to the
model that prevailed during early transition (Rodríguez, 2005), qualified as
traditional, in which high adolescent fertility was linked to early marriage and
the absence of birth control. The 1990s saw the emergence of a new fertility
(11) Adolescent fertility is viewed as a social problem both because it incurs health risks,
especially when pregnancy occurs in early adolescence, and also because it may compromise the
future of the teenagers concerned, notably in terms of educational achievement. Though these
alarmist suppositions, targeted by regional policies and programmes, have recently been brought
into question (Hakkert, 2001), it is generally acknowledged that a model of early fertility appears
to be incompatible with the fulfilment of women throughout their life course through education
and social integration.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
535
model of two or three children per woman, starting with early births outside a
stable union (Rodríguez, 2005).
TABLE 5.– ADOLESCENT FERTILITY RATES BASED ON SURVEYS CONDUCTED
IN
Country
13 LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES
Adolescent fertility rate
(for 1,000 women
aged 15-19)
1985- 1990- 20001990 1995 2005
Source and survey year
1985-1990
1990-1995
2000-2005
Belize
–
137
195
–
FHS 1991
CDC 1999
Bolivia
199
194
184
DHS 1989
DHS 1994
DHS 2003
Brazil
174
176
–
DHS 1986
DHS 1991
–
Colombia
173
189
190
DHS 1986
DHS 1995
DHS 2005
Dominican
Republic
100
188
116
DHS 1986
DHS 1991
DHS 2002
Ecuador
189
191
100
CDC 1987
CDC 1994
CDC 2004
El Salvador
134
124
104
DHS 1985
CDC 1993
CDC 2002-2003
Guatemala
130
126
114
DHS 1987
DHS 1995
DHS 2002
Haiti
196
176
186 EMMUS-I 1996 DHS 1994-1996
DHS 2000
Honduras
132
136
137 CDC 1991-1992
CDC 1996
CDC 2001
Nicaragua
158
158
119 DHS 1997-1998 CDC 1992-1993
DHS 2001
Paraguay
197
107
165
DHS 1990
CDC 1995-1996
CDC 2004
Peru
179
161
166
DHS 1986
DHS 1992
DHS 2000
Source: ORC Macro, 2006: http://www.measuredhs.com;
CDC surveys: http://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/Surveys/index.htm
5. The factors of change
With the exception of Argentina, Uruguay and, to a lesser extent, Cuba,
fertility in the countries of the region started declining in the 1960s. Though
the timing was similar in all countries, the speed of decline appears to be
linked to socioeconomic characteristics, notably the mean level of education
and the degree of development of the countries concerned (Guzmán, 1994).
The small family ideal spread early in the region (ECLAC, 2005). The
contraceptive prevalence surveys conducted under the PECFAL Latin
American fertility surveys programme (Programa de Encuestas de Fecundidad
Para America Latina) in the 1960s had already revealed that the fertility ideal
was below actual fertility, notably in urban areas (CELADE, 1972). This
result was confirmed by the World Fertility Survey and later, in the 1980s and
1990s, by the Demographic and Health Surveys. The 1990-1999 survey data
show that the mean number of children desired is close to 2 children per
woman, or even below replacement level in many countries (Hakkert, 2004).
As we will see later, it was the growing use of contraceptives that enabled
this small-family preference to become a reality. A combination of factors lay
behind this “contraceptive revolution” (ECLAC, 2005): biotechnological
factors, with the development of production capacity, and the increased efficacy
and quality of birth control products; political factors, with the spread of family
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
planning programmes enjoying broad coverage and strong official backing;
cultural factors with the growing psychological acceptance of contraception.
Contextual factors, such as urbanization and the development of the media have
also played a key role by reinforcing the impact of the other factors. These
factors have not all acted simultaneously, or with the same degree of intensity.
For example, in Brazil, unlike Mexico, public policy played no role in the
spread of contraception. Nevertheless, the Brazilian state directly encouraged
structural and socio-cultural transformations by applying policies and
programmes which not only reduced child demand, but also helped to gain
acceptance for birth control through the market rather than through public
policy (Perpetuo and Wong, 2006).
The development of contraceptive use from the 1970s to the early 1990s
can be explained by the growing number of couples wishing to limit their
family size, and by the progressive disappearance of the many obstacles
preventing couples from realizing their preferences (Feyisetan and Casterline,
2000). However, the ability to match effective fertility to ideal fertility remains
dependent upon social status, level of education and other socioeconomic
variables. In the most disadvantaged communities, access to contraception is
not universal, making it impossible to reach desired fertility objectives. In Peru,
for example, the 1996 Demographic and Health Survey showed that the number
of children desired was practically the same for all women, varying between 1.8
and 2.0 by educational level. Yet women with no education still have 7 children
on average, those with a primary education have 4.6 and the others 2.6
(Hakkert, 2004).
6. Contraception, the key determinant of transition
To better understand the process of fertility decline in the region, we
will analyse its main determinants (Bongaarts, 1982): contraception,
nuptiality and induced abortion.
Generally speaking, contraceptive use is the determinant with the strongest
impact on fertility decline in Latin America and the Caribbean over recent
decades(12). Contraceptive use has been decisive in reducing fertility, with a
prevalence that has increased steadily among women in a union (Figure 5)(13). For
example, on the basis of several studies, Lerner and Quesnel (1994) show that
80% of the fertility decline in Mexico can be attributed to contraceptive use(14).
(12) The effect of other close determinants is smaller. For example, it has been shown that
postnatal infertility, not examined in detail here, has had less effect on fertility decline than the
other factors analysed (Moreno and Singh, 1996; Chackiel, 2004). It nevertheless explains large
differences in countries such as Bolivia, where very diverse regional patterns are observed,
associated with specific cultural and ethnic traditions (Guzmán et al., 1991).
(13) In several countries of the region, the number of sexually active single women has
increased in recent years. Most of them use contraception. In most of the countries concerned,
contraceptive use among these women is slightly more frequent than among women in a union.
(14) But the same authors also point out that the programmes to promote contraception were
introduced at a time when the population was ready to modify its reproductive behaviour. These
programmes simply accelerated and amplified a process that would have occurred in any case.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
537
Country
Ined 351 06
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Paraguay
Peru
Dominican Rep.
0
10
1986-92
20
30
40
50
60
1995-99
70
2001-05
80
90
100
Percentage
Figure 5.– Prevalence of contraceptive use among women living
with a partner in selected Latin American countries
Sources: DHS and CDC surveys.
In Latin America, the use of modern contraceptive methods largely reflects
the policies adopted by national governments and implemented by public health
institutions. In Mexico, for example, 45% of women in a union used modern
contraception in 1987, compared with just 23% in 1973 (Lerner and Quesnel,
1994). However, state intervention varies in scope and intensity from one country
to another, and even within countries. It has created large inequalities by giving
clear priority to urban areas. With the exception of Colombia, Haiti and the
Dominican Republic, contraceptive prevalence is much lower in rural areas,
above all in countries with large indigenous populations (Bolivia, Guatemala and
Mexico) with very limited access to contraception (Figure 6).
In countries where fertility is high, such as Guatemala and Haiti, the prevalence of contraceptive methods (modern or traditional) is below 50% among
women who are married or in a union, whereas in countries with low fertility, such
as Colombia and Brazil, it is around 80% (Appendix Table A.16). In certain countries, such as Bolivia and Paraguay, prevalence increased by more than 20 percentage points within a decade. This may be largely thanks to the International
Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo in 1994, which
led to greatly increased contraceptive availability and an ensuing decline in fertility.
The prevalence of modern contraceptive methods is much higher than that
of traditional methods, which are nevertheless still quite widespread in countries
with large indigenous populations, such as Bolivia and Peru (Appendix Table
A.15). Despite the high prevalence of modern contraception in the region, efforts
must still be made to extend coverage to certain disadvantaged populations.
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
Country
Ined 352 06
Bolivia 2003
Brazil 1996
Colombia 2005
Ecuador 2004
El Salvador 2002/03
Guatemala 2002
Haiti 2000
Honduras 2001
Mexico 1997
Nicaragua 2001
Paraguay 2004
Peru 2004
Dominican Rep. 2002
0
10
Urban
20
30
40
50
60
Rural
70
80
90
100
Percentage
Figure 6.– Prevalence of contraceptive use among women living
with a partner by place of residence in selected Latin American countries
Sources: DHS and CDC surveys.
Contraceptive practice appears to be levelling off in many countries of the world
however (Bongaarts, 2005). This is attributed by Bongaarts to reduced investment
in family planning programmes. In the case of Latin America, the most striking
example is that of the Dominican Republic, where the proportion of contraceptive
users among women living in a union remained practically unchanged between
1999 and 2002 (Appendix Table A.16).
Moreover in Mexico, as in most countries of the region, family planning
programmes have almost exclusively targeted women (CONAPO, 2001), and this
partly explains the low prevalence of methods that require direct male
participation. The methods most commonly used by Latin American couples are
female sterilization, followed by the pill and the IUD (Appendix Table A.16),
which are widely recommended in the family planning programmes. The fertility
decline is due mainly to female sterilization, notably in countries such as Brazil,
Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua and
the Dominican Republic, and its use is increasing in most countries, while use of
the pill, the IUD and other methods has remained stable.
As pointed out by Lerner and Quesnel (1994), it is regrettable that this
massive recourse to female sterilization is due largely to the low availability of
other methods and to the limited resources of women living in disadvantaged
areas (notably lack of knowledge of their reproductive rights). This observation
also applies to the use of other methods. In Mexico, for example, many women
who chose the IUD or sterilization reported that they were not told about other
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
539
options (CONAPO, 2001). For sterilization to be a truly intentional decision, it
must be taken knowingly and without constraint.
The fact that female sterilization is the most common form of contraception
– well ahead of other methods in some countries – has implications in terms of
gender equity. It means that responsibility for the fertility transition is still placed
upon women, with men remaining very much in the background. It may also
reflect the limits of family planning programmes which are incapable of
promoting a wider range of methods, and the advantages of sterilization as a
permanent solution in situations where the long-term use of other methods is
difficult. Not forgetting the existence of medical practices, in Brazil for example,
which almost automatically result in sterilization for women who give birth by
Caesarean section (Berquó, 1994). It has been shown for this country that
sterilized women have more problems negotiating their sexual relations with their
partners and, as a general rule, have a lower educational level than other women
(Barbosa and Vieira, 1995).
7. Nuptiality: stability and change
One of the most characteristic features of nuptiality in Latin America is
the relative constancy of age at first union, which is accompanied by major
changes in other nuptiality indicators.
The overall analysis of countries in the region, using data from censuses
since the 1960s (Rosero-Bixby, 1996; Fussell and Palloni, 2004; García and
Rojas, 2001; Bay et al., 2004), shows little variation in age at first union over
several decades (Appendix Table A.17). There is no visible evidence that the
region’s inhabitants are delaying the decision to live together (García and
Rojas, 2001). For Fussell and Palloni (2004), this stability of the age at union
formation and the low celibacy rates observed in most countries are due to the
centrality of marriage as an institution in social life and its role as a reference
point in an era of social change. However, we are not dealing with a single
model. The authors quoted mention the persistence of two distinct
cohabitation models in the region. In one group of countries, mainly in the
Southern Cone, age at first union remains high and consensual unions account
for a minority share – albeit a growing one – of total unions. In a second
group of countries, chiefly Mesoamerican and Caribbean, age at first union is
lower, with a higher proportion of consensual unions(15).
(15) The percentage of consensual unions is rising, particularly in countries where they were
uncommon (Appendix Table A.18). By contrast, in countries where their share was traditionally large,
we observe no significant change. For instance, in Nicaragua, Honduras, the Dominican Republic, and
El Salvador, the proportion of consensual unions among women aged 20-29 remains close to or even
above 40%. These figures tend to corroborate the notion that countries where legal unions
predominated are witnessing a new pattern of consensual union at the start of conjugal life, regarded
as a necessary step – for economic or other reasons – to the consolidation of the couple. This increase
has a clear impact on the proportion of children born outside marriage: in Costa Rica, the proportion
of these births rose from 38% to 59% between 1990 and 2004, and in Uruguay it rose from 32% to
55% between 1990 and 2002. This uptrend in births outside marriage was already observed in the
1970s and 1980s in Costa Rica, Chile and Argentina (Rosero-Bixby, 1996).
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Lastly, permanent celibacy among women is declining nearly everywhere
(Appendix Table A.19). Between 1960 and 2000, it fell from 8% to 5% in Brazil
and from about 30% to 14% in Venezuela. The only countries where the
proportion of women remaining single at ages 45-49 still exceeds 10% are
Venezuela, Chile, Paraguay and Costa Rica. By contrast, the proportion is very
low in the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and El Salvador. These results
should be treated with caution however, owing to possible under- or overestimates (for example, some women living in partnerships or separated from
their husbands may report themselves as never-married(16)).
The impact of nuptiality on the fertility decline is viewed as relatively
insignificant, except in the Dominican Republic where, according to one
study, the decrease in the number of cohabiting women in the 1970s
accounted for 43% of the fall in fertility (Rosero-Bixby, 1996). But nuptiality
has also had an opposite effect. The same author and others (Guzmán and
Rodríguez, 1993) contend that the rise in fertility observed in many countries
of the region in the 1950s was chiefly driven by an increase in nuptiality, due,
for some authors, to better living conditions, economic growth, and advances
in the status of women (Cosio-Zavala, 1993). In recent years, trends have not
varied significantly, nor have they exerted the same decisive influence as
contraception on the decline in fertility. In Peru, however, nuptiality was the
second contributing factor, after contraception, to the decrease in fertility in
the country as a whole between 1994 and 2004, and the main factor among
higher-income groups (Ortiz, 2006).
8. Induced abortion: an incomplete picture
The number of induced abortions in Latin America is hard to
estimate(17). As they are illegal in most countries (Appendix Table A.20), the
figures reported in demographic surveys are of doubtful reliability. There is
not enough available information for an in-depth analysis of the phenomenon
or its impact on fertility.
Independently of its relevance as a factor of fertility decline, abortion is an
important women’s rights and public health issue because of the unsafe
conditions under which abortions are often performed, except in Cuba, Guyana
and Puerto Rico, where they are legal. Chile and El Salvador, where abortion is
totally banned, even when the mother’s life is at risk, are extreme cases. Other
countries, such as Mexico, have eased their legislation in recent years.
In the absence of accurate figures, experts estimate that some four million
Latin American women undergo abortions (WHO, 2004), mostly outside the law
and therefore in unsafe conditions. It is also estimated that 17% of maternal
(16) In Chile, this includes women legally separated as a result of an annulment procedure,
who thereby return to never-married status.
(17) For a review of recent literature on abortion in the region, see the study by
A. Guillaume and S. Lerner: http://ceped.cirad.fr/article.php3?id_article=138
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
541
deaths are due to unsanitary abortions (Lafaurie et al., 2005; WHO, 2004); in
Colombia, the figure is almost 30%, making abortion the country’s second cause
of maternal death (Deulaire et al., 2002; Lafaurie et al., 2005). The gravity of the
problem is confirmed by the Alan Guttmacher Institute which estimates (2001)
that complications following induced abortion affect some 800,000 Latin
American and Caribbean women every year. The same source estimates the
induced-abortion rate at about 35 per thousand women of childbearing age, and
even above 45 per thousand in some countries such as Chile and Peru.
Citing published data, notably from the United Nations (2001) and the
Alan Guttmacher Institute (1999), Bay et al. (2004) estimate that one Argentine
woman in two undergoes abortion in her lifetime, and that in several countries,
including Brazil, Peru, and the Dominican Republic, there are 30 abortions per
100 conceptions among women aged 15-49; the proportion rises to 60% in
Cuba (Guzmán et al., 2001b).
Unlike in the developed countries, where most abortions are performed
on young never-married women, the Latin American women choosing to abort
tend to be married women living in urban areas who already have their desired
number of children and who are unwilling to endure the economic hardship
that would result from an additional child (Bay et al., 2004; Alan Guttmacher
Institute, 2001). In all likelihood, abortions have been trending up, given that,
before the 1970s, couples did not actively seek to control the number of births
(Alan Guttmacher Institute, 2001).
Unfortunately, socioeconomic conditions cause abortions to be experienced very differently by economically disadvantaged rural women (who frequently abort in unsanitary, unsafe conditions and are more prone to
complications) compared with middle-class and high-income urban women
(who have easier access to private doctors and can abort in low-risk conditions).
In the patriarchal, inegalitarian societies of Latin America, abortion remains a
complex and serious problem.
9. Social differences in fertility
Throughout the region, major socioeconomic and geographical
differentials in fertility are observed. These differences persist despite the
changes that have occurred. Fertility remains higher in rural areas than in urban
areas (on average, one-and-a-half times as high) and that of women with no
education is twice or three times as high as that of women with secondary or
higher education (Figure 7 and Appendix Table A.14). For the most highly
educated Latin-American women, fertility rates are fairly similar from one
country to another. This implies both the spread of the small-family ideal and
increased access to contraception. In this group, the average number of children
varies between 2 and 2.5, even though the countries concerned are at different
stages of the demographic transition. At the opposite end, women with no
education have an average number of children ranging from 4.5 to over 6,
depending on the country.
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
Country
Ined 353 06
Bolivia 2003
Honduras 2001
Guatemala 2002
Haiti 2000
Ecuador 2004
Nicaragua 2001
Peru 2000
Brazil 1996
Dominican Rep. 2002
Colombia 2005
El Salvador 2002/03
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Number of children per woman
No education
Primary education
Secondary education or above
Figure 7.– Total fertility rate by female educational level in 11 Latin American
countries (late 1990s, early 2000s)
Source: Appendix Table A.14.
The breakdown by household socioeconomic level (18) illustrates the
inequalities (Figure 8). In Panama, Venezuela and Brazil, fertility in the most
disadvantaged quintile (Q1) is twice as high as in the most advantaged
quintile (Q5). The sole exception is Chile, where the gap is minimal. The
variations are larger among adolescent girls: their fertility is between four and
six times as high among the most disadvantaged groups as among the most
advantaged (Figure 9). These results are corroborated by the Demographic
and Health Surveys (DHSs) conducted in the 1990s (Guzmán et al., 2001).
We might have expected the demographic transition to lessen the
differences in fertility by socioeconomic level. But a recent study based on
data from censuses in the 1990s and later reveals divergent national trends
(ECLAC, 2005). Geographic differentials between broad regions in each
country have narrowed (Brazil, Guatemala and Venezuela), remained stable
(Chile) or widened (Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras, Panama and Paraguay).
Observing the differences by women’s educational level and, more
specifically, the ratio of fertility of women with no education(19) to that of women
(18) The socioeconomic indicator combines the level of household living amenities and the
head of household’s educational level. It is computed from census data. For more details, see
ECLAC (2005).
(19) Note that the proportion of illiterate women (i.e. with no education) has fallen
substantially in all countries. It is now below 8% in most countries except Guatemala and Haiti,
where it exceeds 20%, and Nicaragua and El Salvador, where it stands at nearly 15%.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
7
543
Number of children per woman
Ined 354 06
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Panama 2000
1st Quintile
Venezuela 2001
2nd Quintile
Brazil 2000
3rd Quintile
Chile 2002
4th Quintile
5th Quintile
Figure 8.– Total fertility rate by household socioeconomic level, ca. 2000
Source: estimates based on population censuses (ECLAC, 2005).
200
Percentage
Ined 355 06
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Chile 2002
Brazil 2002
1st Quintile
Honduras 2001
Panama 2000
Paraguay 2002
5th Quintile
Venezuela 2001
Country
Figure 9.– Fertility rate of adolescent girls by lowest and highest household
socioeconomic level
Source: estimates based on population censuses (ECLAC, 2005).
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
with secondary or higher education, the relative gaps between the two groups are
wide (Figure 7 and Appendix Table A.14): the fertility of women with no
education is twice or even three times as high as that of the most-educated
women. These gaps display no observable overall widening or narrowing trend.
Fertility differences by socioeconomic level exhibit a more diverse pattern
of change. In countries such as Brazil and Chile, the gaps remain unchanged;
elsewhere, as in Paraguay and Venezuela, they have widened owing to a sharp
decline in fertility among advantaged groups. In Panama and Honduras, they
appear to have shrunk.
In sum, we find no one-to-one relationship between fertility levels and
socioeconomic inequalities or place of residence. The existence of a largescale family planning programme may reduce social and geographic
differences. For example, a comparative study of federal states in Mexico and
Brazil shows that, despite Brazil’s lower fertility levels, the variation in
fertility by educational level is greater in Brazil, which, unlike Mexico, has
never officially adopted family-planning policies (Amaral and Potter, 2004).
The differences in adolescent fertility by socioeconomic level have
recently widened in five of the six countries studied: Brazil, Chile, Honduras,
Paraguay and Venezuela. This appears to confirm the fact that Latin America’s
“structural handicap” of social inequality restricts the scope for convergence
of fertility by socioeconomic category and geographic area (ECLAC, 2005).
Accordingly, to reduce fertility at young ages, family planning programmes
should consider a broad approach that consists in analysing the reasons for
such precocious behaviour and how it meshes with personal intentions and
individual life courses.
V. Overall mortality: significant progress
1. A transition towards a longer life
Latin America has registered an unprecedented mortality decline,
particularly in the second half of the twentieth century. This decline, which
often began after 1920, is associated with a number of factors: better living
conditions, faster urbanization, broader health service coverage thanks to a
more institutionalized approach, stronger emphasis on primary healthcare,
rapid medical advances (ECLAC, 2004; Chackiel, 2004, Cosio-Zavala, 1998),
and massive campaigns to control the vectors of disease (at least in tropical
countries). In developing countries, the decline in mortality – infant mortality
especially – has also been accelerated by the implementation of effective,
low-cost prevention measures (Hill, 1995).
Little information is available on mortality in the first decades of the
twentieth century, though fragmentary estimates put life expectancy at 30-
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
545
40 years for that period (Pérez Brignoli, 1993; Arriaga and Davis, 1969).
Chile had an estimated life expectancy of only 30 years or so in 1909
(Preston et al., 1972).
Between 1950-1954 and 2000-2004, the mean length of life for Latin
America as a whole rose by 20 years from 51.4 to 71.5 years; that of women
rose by almost 22 years to 74.9 years in 2000-2004 (Table 6). The region’s
life expectancy exceeds the world average, but lags behind that of Europe,
Oceania and North America (Figure 10). Life expectancy at birth registered
significant gains in the period studied, particularly in countries where it was
previously low. Strikingly, Argentina and Uruguay, pioneers in transition and
in mortality reduction, have been overtaken by countries where longevity has
risen spectacularly, such as neighbouring Chile.
80
In years
Ined 356 06
70
60
50
40
30
Africa
Europe
Oceania
1950-54 1955-59 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74
World
North America
Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean
1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04
Years
Figure 10.– Life expectancy at birth in broad regions of the world,
by five-year periods from 1950 to 2004
Source: United Nations.
Latin American and Caribbean countries still have a long way to go
before their life expectancy matches that of Northern countries: the level
reached in 2000-2004 corresponds to that attained in the North thirty years
ago. However, thanks to medical progress in recent years, the region may take
less time to achieve this level than did the Northern countries. The number of
years gained since 1950 is smaller than the figure for Asia, where life
expectancy rose by 25 years in the same period, but twice as high as the figure
for Africa, where HIV/AIDS is responsible for two decades of stagnation or
even decline in life expectancy.
Beyond these general advances in the fight against mortality, individual
countries display a wide diversity of situations (Table 6). At one end, Haiti is the
only country where life expectancy has not crossed the 60-year threshold, and
may actually regress in the medium term because of HIV/AIDS. With an HIV/
AIDS prevalence rate of around 4%, Haiti is one of the hardest-hit countries in the
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TABLE 6.– LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN: LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH,
1950-1954 AND 2000-2004 (IN YEARS)
Men
Countries
19501954
47.8
56.0
41.8
40.5
48.9
40.9
54.4
44.1
51.8
20002004
71.3
75.8
65.5
68.6
72.4
67.2
72.3
67.7
68.3
Women
19501954
51.0
58.6
42.3
43.2
52.5
43.7
56.2
46.5
54.8
20002004
76.5
80.6
72.5
73.4
77.4
71.9
77.4
73.7
72.8
Total
19501954
49.3
57.3
42.0
41.8
50.7
42.3
55.3
45.3
53.3
20002004
73.8
78.1
68.9
71.0
74.8
69.5
74.7
70.6
70.5
Gains between 1950-1954
and 2000-2004
Men
Women
Total
Mesoamerica
23.5
25.5
24.5
Costa Rica
19.8
22.0
20.9
Guatemala
23.7
30.2
26.9
Honduras
28.1
30.2
29.2
Mexico
23.5
24.8
24.1
Nicaragua
26.3
28.2
27.2
Panama
17.9
21.1
19.5
El Salvador
23.6
27.3
25.4
Caribbean
16.5
18.0
17.2
Netherlands
Antilles
59.1
73.3
61.6
79.2
60.5
76.3
14.2
17.6
15.9
Bahamas
58.3
63.9
61.2
70.3
59.8
67.1
5.6
9.1
7.3
Barbados
55.0
74.5
59.5
79.5
57.2
77.2
19.5
20.0
20.0
Belize
57.1
69.9
58.3
73.0
57.7
71.4
12.9
14.7
13.7
Cuba
57.8
75.3
61.3
79.1
59.5
77.1
17.5
17.8
17.7
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
55.0
74.8
58.1
81.7
56.5
78.3
19.8
23.6
21.8
Guyana
50.8
60.1
53.9
66.3
52.3
63.2
9.3
12.4
10.9
French Guiana
50.3
72.5
56.9
78.3
53.3
75.1
22.2
21.4
21.9
Haiti
36.3
57.8
38.9
60.7
37.6
59.2
21.5
21.9
21.7
Jamaica
56.9
73.7
60.2
77.8
58.5
75.7
16.8
17.6
17.2
Martinique
55.0
75.8
58.1
82.3
56.6
79.1
20.8
24.2
22.6
Puerto Rico
62.7
71.2
66.0
80.1
64.3
75.6
8.5
14.1
11.3
Dominican Rep. 44.7
67.8
47.3
72.4
46.0
70.1
23.1
25.1
24.1
Saint Lucia
52.7
70.8
55.3
74.1
54.1
72.5
18.1
18.8
18.4
Suriname
54.4
68.5
57.7
73.7
56.0
71.1
14.1
16.0
15.1
Trinidad
and Tobago
58.2
68.4
59.9
74.4
59.1
71.3
10.2
14.5
12.2
Andean
countries
47.2
68.6
50.2
74.3
48.7
71.4
21.4
24.1
22.7
Bolivia
38.5
61.8
42.5
66.0
40.4
63.8
23.3
23.5
23.4
Colombia
49.0
69.2
52.3
75.3
50.6
72.2
20.2
23.0
21.6
Ecuador
47.1
71.3
49.6
77.2
48.4
74.2
24.2
27.6
25.8
Peru
42.9
67.3
45.0
72.4
43.9
69.8
24.5
27.4
25.9
Venezuela
53.8
69.9
56.6
75.8
55.2
72.8
16.1
19.2
17.6
Southern Cone
and Brazil
52.5
68.4
56.3
75.8
54.3
72.0
15.9
19.5
17.7
Argentina
60.4
70.6
65.1
78.1
62.7
74.3
10.2
13.0
11.6
Brazil
49.3
67.3
52.8
74.9
51.0
71.0
18.0
22.2
20.0
Chile
52.9
74.8
56.8
80.8
54.8
77.7
21.9
24.0
22.9
Paraguay
60.7
68.6
64.7
73.1
62.6
70.8
7.9
8.5
8.2
Uruguay
63.3
71.6
69.4
78.9
66.3
75.2
8.3
9.5
8.9
Total
49.7
68.3
53.1
74.9
51.4
71.5
18.6
21.8
20.1
Sources: estimates by CELADE (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm);
United Nations (2005) for data on English-speaking Caribbean countries.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
547
region (UNAIDS, 2006). In Bolivia likewise, life expectancy remains relatively
low by regional standards (63.8 years)(20). Elsewhere, life expectancy exceeds
67 years. Costa Rica, Chile and Cuba, as well as several non-Spanish-speaking
Caribbean islands (Barbados, Martinique and Guadeloupe), currently post the
highest life expectancy at birth, at over 77 years, close to that of many developed
countries. Note that the oldest-old mortality rates in Costa Rica are among the
lowest in the world (Rosero-Bixby, 2006).
By the early 1950s, there was a 29-year gap in life expectancy between
Haiti (average: 37.6 years) and Uruguay (66.3 years). Along with Argentina
and some Caribbean countries, Uruguay was a pacesetter, with a life
expectancy of over 60 years. In the 2000-2004 period, the indicator stood
between 69 years (Guatemala) and 78 years (Costa Rica) (21) in nearly all
countries. This trend towards convergence (excluding Bolivia and, above all,
Haiti) is due to the stronger gains in countries where life expectancy was
lowest. From 42 years in Guatemala and Honduras at the start of the period,
life expectancy gained 27 and 29 years respectively between 1950-1954 and
2000-2004. This increase is all the more remarkable as both countries have
remained among the region’s poorest (ECLAC, 2005).
In fact, despite the generally observed connection between a country’s
poverty level (low levels of development and social protection) and life expectancy
at birth, poverty is not necessarily synonymous with high mortality. For example,
though life expectancy for both sexes combined is similar in Honduras and Brazil,
the poverty level is twice as high in the first country as in the second. Nevertheless,
while it is impossible to define a sub-regional model, inter-country differences in
mortality often correlate with fertility differentials. Countries such as Bolivia, Haiti
and Guatemala combine high fertility with high mortality.
2. Differences between men and women
Although women throughout the region have a higher life expectancy at
birth than men, the gender gap varies from one country to another. Nor do we find
a strict correlation with the mortality level. The narrowest gap – only three years –
is found in Haiti. At the other extreme, in Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina, as well
as Chile until the 1970s, the gap is equal to or greater than seven years;
Guatemala has recently joined this group. In countries with the lowest mortality,
such as Costa Rica and Cuba, the difference between the sexes is still about four
to five years; in Chile, it is slightly larger (six years in 2000-2004); but in most of
these countries, the gender gap is widening (Appendix Table A.24). On average,
the difference between female and male life expectancy rose from 3.4 years at the
start of the period studied (1950-1954) to 6.7 years in 1990-1994. It has since
stabilized.
(20) According to estimates, Guyana is in a similar situation, with a mortality level that has
remained unchanged for the past two decades at least.
(21) In some Caribbean islands – particularly Martinique and Guadeloupe – life expectancy
is even longer.
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We can assume that male excess mortality will trend down for two
reasons: first, the more effective treatment of degenerative diseases
responsible for early mortality among men; second, the fact that growing
numbers of women work outside the home and engage in the same range of
activities as men. This downtrend now appears to be confirmed by a slight fall
in the indicator in Chile and Mexico, and its stabilization in Costa Rica,
Uruguay, Panama, Venezuela and other countries (Chackiel, 2004).
3. Excess adult male mortality:
the weight of violent and accidental deaths
Given the sharp drop in infant mortality, the gender gap is due mainly to adult
mortality, most notably the increase in male excess mortality among adolescents
and young adults (20-34 years). In the years 2000-2004, male mortality at these
ages was three times higher than female mortality (and occasionally more). This is
due to a far slower decline in male mortality than in female mortality, or even to an
increase in male mortality at those ages, as in Venezuela.
Countries with the highest male excess mortality include Venezuela,
Colombia, Mexico, Chile and Brazil. The phenomenon is intrinsically linked to
deaths due to accidents and violence(22). In Colombia, violence linked to political
and economic factors is compounded by violence linked to drug-related criminal
activities. Male homicide rates have risen sharply, in particular between the early
1980s and early 1990s. Gender-specific homicide rates among adolescents and
young adults aged 10-29 years are highest in Colombia, El Salvador and
Brazil(23). They are between 10 and 17 times higher among men than among
women (Table 7).
TABLE 7.– HOMICIDE RATE PER 100,000 INHABITANTS AGED 10-29 IN SELECTED
LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES, MID-1990S
Countries
Year
Homicide rate per 100,000
inhabitants aged 10-29
Women
Men
Total
Mexico
1997
2.8
27.8
Ecuador
1996
2.3
29.2
Venezuela
1994
2.8
46.4
Brazil
1995
5.2
59.6
El Salvador
1993
6.5
94.8
Colombia
1995
11.9
156.3
Source: World Report on Violence and Health, WHO, Geneva, 2002.
15.3
15.9
25.0
32.5
50.2
84.4
Male excess
mortality
(M/F)
10
13
17
11
15
13
(22) A study by the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) identifies Chile, Mexico,
Colombia and Cuba as the Latin American countries with the highest violent mortality between
1978 and 1989 (Yunes and Rajs, 1994).
(23) In Brazil, the main cause of mortality at ages 5-39 is violent death. More than half of
such deaths are from road accidents and acts of violence: both causes were on the rise in the
1990s. Concern over both issues resulted in the implementation, in May 2001, of a national
policy to fight morbidity and mortality due to accidents and acts of violence.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
549
In Argentina, a study conducted in Córdoba province has shown that the
gender gap in life expectancy widened from 7.6 to 8.3 years owing to a steeper
increase in male deaths caused by accidents and violence (Peláez, 2004).
4. A look at changes in mortality by age and causes of death
Adult mortality has declined less rapidly than mortality at earlier ages,
and experts estimate that half of the life expectancy gains between 1980 and
1994 are due to decreased mortality among the under-15s (Arriaga, 2003;
PAHO, 2002).
The main changes in cause-specific mortality are the following:
a) deaths from diseases of the circulatory system have diminished in
all countries;
b) there has been no significant change in cancer mortality in any
country, although men have registered an increase in prostate cancer and a
decrease in tracheal, lung and liver cancer; among women, breast and cervical cancer have increased in certain countries and decreased in others;
c) a practically region-wide increase in deaths due to AIDS, diabetes
and septicaemia;
d) a relative stabilization or mild increase in acute respiratory conditions.
The breakdown of deaths by broad groups of causes (infectious
diseases, neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, perinatal mortality, violent
deaths and other causes), reveals the classical model of what is known as the
epidemiological transition: a decrease in deaths from infectious diseases
(except HIV/AIDS) and in deaths during the perinatal period, combined with
an increase in the relative share of deaths due to chronic and degenerative
disorders, such as diseases of the circulatory system and neoplasms
(Chackiel, 2004). In Costa Rica, for example, the proportion of deaths caused
by infectious diseases fell from 39% to 7% among men and from 41% to 8%
among women between 1960-1965 and 1995. In Mexico, the proportions fell
from 41% to 10% for men and from 46% to 11% for women. Similarly, almost
all countries have registered an increase in the relative share of deaths due to
neoplasms and diseases of the circulatory system.
5. HIV/AIDS and its impact
The prevalence of HIV (percentage of persons aged 15-49 living with
HIV) in Latin America stands at about 0.5%, one-half the world average
(UNAIDS, 2006). However, it is high in the Caribbean sub-region (1.6%),
which includes the largest number of high-prevalence countries. The hardesthit country is Haiti, along with the Bahamas, where prevalence rates exceed
3%; Trinidad and Tobago, Belize and Guyana have rates between 2% and 3%;
Suriname, Barbados, Honduras, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic post
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
rates between 1% and 2%. In Cuba, by contrast, HIV prevalence is below
0.2%. Outside the Caribbean, two Mesoamerican countries, Honduras and
Guatemala, have rates in excess of 1%. Some of these countries display signs
of a decrease (Haiti) or a stablilization in the prevalence of the disease.
The most populous country in Latin America, Brazil, has the largest
population of HIV-infected persons. They account for nearly two-thirds of
persons living with HIV in Latin America (UNAIDS, 2006, p. 46).
The United Nations Population Division has estimated the impact of
AIDS-related deaths on life expectancy in countries with the highest prevalence
rates: the impact is significant in Haiti, the Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago,
which lose five years or more of life expectancy to AIDS (Table 8). The loss
exceeds four years in Guyana; in the other countries, it ranges between two and
three years, except for Brazil, which has a lower prevalence rate (approximately
0.5%).
TABLE 8.– LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN. ESTIMATED LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH,
WITHOUT AIDS AND WITH AIDS, 2000-2005 (IN YEARS)
Countries
Life expectancy at birth
With AIDS
Without AIDS
Mesoamerica
Honduras
67.6
Guatemala
67.1
Caribbean
Haiti
51.5
Bahamas
69.5
Trinidad and Tobago
69.9
Guyana
62.8
Dominican Republic
67.1
Jamaica
70.7
Belize
71.9
Barbados
74.9
Suriname
69.0
Southern Cone and Brazil
Brazil
70.3
Source: United Nations (2005, Volume III: Analytical Report).
Difference
71.0
69.0
–3.4
–1.9
59.2
74.8
74.9
67.2
70.0
73.5
74.4
77.2
71.2
–7.7
–5.3
–5.0
–4.4
–2.9
–2.8
–2.5
–2.3
–2.2
71.0
–0.7
In high-prevalence countries – the Dominican Republic, Barbados,
Suriname and Belize – the epidemic remains a primarily male phenomenon(24);
in Jamaica, the Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago, it affects both sexes; in
Haiti, Honduras and Guyana, the majority of victims are women (Figure 11). In
several countries, women – particularly adolescent girls and young women –
(24) Sexual intercourse between men is a major source of HIV transmission throughout
Mesoamerica. In Argentina and Brazil, the leading cause is intravenous drug use. In the
Caribbean, the chief source of transmission is heterosexual intercourse. Two exceptions to this
rule are Puerto Rico and Bermuda, where a large share is due to intravenous drug use (UNAIDS,
2004).
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
551
Country
Ined 357 06
Dominican Rep.
Barbados
Suriname
Belize
Jamaica
Bahamas
Trinidad and Tobago
Guyana
Honduras
Haiti
0
10
Women
20
30
40
Men
50
60
70
80
Percentage
Figure 11.– Latin America and Caribbean: Gender breakdown
of persons infected by HIV/AIDS in high-prevalence countries, 2003 (%)
Source: UNAIDS.
outnumber men among newly-infected persons: in Trinidad and Tobago, the
Dominican Republic and Jamaica, between twice and six times as many
females as males become infected at ages 15-19. A relative feminization of the
epidemic can therefore be expected in the near future.
Some countries have made progress in monitoring and treating the
epidemic: Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Chile in the Southern Cone; Cuba,
the Bahamas and Barbados in the Caribbean; Costa Rica, Mexico and Panama
in Mesoamerica, as well as Venezuela, which has expanded antiretroviral
therapy coverage. Elsewhere, by contrast, the negative attitude of national
authorities – who refuse, for example, to publish realistic figures on the
disease – is holding back the extension of coverage. The lowest coverage
(under 20% of infected persons) is in countries with the highest HIV/AIDS
prevalence (UNAIDS, 2006).
VI. A rapid and widespread decline in infant mortality
In the mid-twentieth century, around one child in eight born in the
region died before their first birthday. In more than half of all Latin American
countries, the infant mortality rate was above 100 per thousand, reaching or
even exceeding 150 per thousand in certain Caribbean countries (Haiti and
5_6(3)ok_America.fm Page 552 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:29 13
552
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
Dominican Republic), in three Mesoamerican countries (Nicaragua, Honduras
and Salvador) and in two Andean countries (Peru and Bolivia).
Over the following decades, infant mortality declined very rapidly, falling
from 126 per thousand in 1950-1954, to 57 per thousand in 1980-1984, and 26 per
thousand in 2000-2004 for the region as a whole (Appendix Table A.25). All
countries experienced this decline, though to a varying extent. The risk of dying
in early infancy decreased, despite poverty, severe social inequalities in most
countries of the region, and successive economic crises. In 2000-2004, the infant
mortality rate was 6.1 per thousand in Cuba 8 per thousand in Chile and 10.5 per
thousand in Costa Rica. At the other extreme, it exceeded 50 per thousand in
Haiti, Bolivia and Guyana. Countries with a rate of between 30 and 40 per
thousand are found in all the sub-regions: Mesoamerica (Honduras, Nicaragua
and Guatemala), Caribbean (Belize and Dominican Republic), Andean countries
(Peru) and Southern Cone (Paraguay).
This radical improvement can be attributed to a range of factors. The
development of low-cost, high-impact mother-and-child health programmes,
focusing mainly on primary health care (massive vaccination campaigns, oral
rehydration, medical follow-up of children) has coincided with major
socioeconomic and demographic changes, such as the extension of basic
services (notably drinking water and sewerage), improved education and lower
fertility. This fertility decline has been accompanied by a lower frequency of
high-risk pregnancies (late, multiple or closely spaced pregnancies)(25). All
these factors served to increase the availability of resources for mother-andchild health care and to improve its quality. With less quantitative pressure on
the health care system, it became possible to invest more in improving care and
extending the range of services available.
1. Infant mortality differentials
Despite substantial progress, major social and geographical inequalities
still exist across the region (Appendix Table A.28). Only in countries where
mortality has declined most sharply is the situation less heterogeneous, thanks
to the development of health services and mother-and-child programmes in
the most isolated areas (ECLAC, 2005). For the others, there are large
geographical disparities within individual countries. In Brazil, for example,
the risk of dying before age one is 4.4 times higher in the State of Alagoas
than in Río Grande do Sul(26). In most countries, there is no clear reduction in
(25) The frequency of high-risk births (spaced less than two years apart or above parity 5)
has decreased. According to DHS survey data, the proportion of pregnancies occurring less than
two years after the previous birth fell from 36% to 20% in Colombia between 1986 and 2005,
from 42% to 28% in the Dominican Republic between 1986 and 2002, and from 35% to 20% in
Peru between 1986 and 2005. In these three countries, for children born less than two years after
a previous birth, the risk of dying is 1.6 to 1.9 times higher than that of children born after an
interval of two years or more.
(26) Likewise, in Panama, the risk of dying before age one in Ngöbe Gublé is 4.8 times
higher than in the province of Panamá which includes the national capital.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
553
inequalities between the least developed areas and the more prosperous
regions. The indigenous communities often live in conditions of exclusion and
poverty with limited access to social welfare programmes. Infant mortality is
a very revealing indicator of these factors (Figure 12) and differentials
between indigenous and non-indigenous populations are very large (ECLAC,
2005). High infant mortality among indigenous communities is associated
with low income, minimal education, limited access to basic amenities such
as drinking water and sewerage, and low availability of health services,
especially in the case of rural populations living far from urban centres.
Indeed, large differentials are still observed between urban and rural areas,
varying by the mother’s educational level and socioeconomic category. For
children born to illiterate mothers, the ratio of infant mortality to that of
children born to mothers with at least secondary education ranges from 1.6
(Salvador) to 3.4 (Guatemala). Trend analysis by educational level or place of
residence does not suggest that these infant mortality differentials are narrowing.
The gap is even widening in certain cases. However, trend analysis by socioeconomic category and controlling for place of residence gives more positive
results (ECLAC, 2005). In the countries studied, early infant mortality has
declined, in urban zones especially, and socioeconomic inequality has also
decreased in these zones since infant mortality has fallen most sharply among
the disadvantaged populations.
Country
Ined 358 06
Bolivia 2001
Paraguay 2002
Ecuador 2001
Mexico 2000
Panama 2000
Guatemala 2002
Brazil 2000
Honduras 2001
Costa Rica 2000
Chile 2002
0
10
20
30
Urban indigenous
Rural indigenous
40
50
60
70
80
Urban non-indigenous
Rural non-indigenous
Figure 12.– Infant mortality rate among the indigenous
and non-indigenous populations circa 2000.
Selected countries of Latin America
Source: ECLAC (2005).
90
100
Per thousand
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
We note lastly that in all countries of the region, the infant mortality
rates of girls were already lower than those of boys in the 1950s, in contrast to
the other regions of the developing world (Appendix Tables A.26 and A.27).
VII. Age structure: demographic dividends and ageing
1. A changing pyramid
The demographic transition and, above all, the fertility decline are
reshaping the region’s population pyramid. In 1950, the pyramid had a broad
base and the youngest age groups were in the majority: the under-15s made up
40% of the population (Figure 13). The pyramid then shifted because of the
fall in the relative proportion of children and young people. At first, the base
narrowed while the centre expanded, without a significant increase in the
proportion of older persons. In the coming decades, the base will continue to
shrink and the proportion of older persons will rise. Population ageing,
already observable in 2000, will intensify between now and 2020.
Let us examine the situation in a set of countries representative of the
region’s diversity: Cuba, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil and Guatemala. Argentina,
a country that experienced an early transition, will be affected by significant
population ageing by 2020, fairly similar to that of Europe. Mexico and
Brazil, which began with wide-based pyramids, are converging at different
paces towards a top-heavy structure, while Guatemala, where the transition
came later, is expected to preserve what may still be described as a “young”
age structure in 2020. Cuba displays an atypical structure, due to a sharp drop
in fertility and its persistence below the replacement rate, combined with
emigration of adolescents and young adults.
These sometimes drastic changes in the population pyramid create major
challenges. A short-term consequence of lower fertility is the relatively rapid
decrease in dependency ratios, i.e. a favourable situation in which the potential
burden on the active population eases as the number of children and adolescents
declines, while the share of the elderly population remains small(27).
This stage of demographic change characterizes all societies undergoing
major shifts in fertility and mortality. It is regarded as a period of opportunity
because of the smaller relative weight of the child population. Resources are
freed up for investment in healthcare and education, making it possible to
improve living conditions and the quality of services offered to the population.
It provides a chance to “harvest” what are sometimes called “demographic
dividends,” i.e. accelerated economic growth and human development
resulting from these structural demographic changes. However, some analysts
(27) The dependency ratio is the ratio of the “dependent” population (the young and the
elderly) to the working-age population.
10
%
10
%
1950
Men
1950
Men
5
5
10
%
5
0
0
5
10
%
10
%
0
5
0
0
5
10
%
10
%
5
0
0-4
10
%
10-14
0-4
0-4
10
%
20-24
10-14
10-14
5
30-34
20-24
20-24
0
40-44
30-34
60-64
40-44
2020
70-74
30-34
Women
Age
80 +
40-44
60-64
70-74
Ined 324 06
50-54
2000
Men
Age
80 +
50-54
Women
Ined 323 06
50-54
60-64
70-74
Age
80 +
CUBA
Men
5
0-4
10
%
10-14
0-4
0-4
5
20-24
10-14
10-14
0
30-34
20-24
20-24
0
0
Source: ECLAC estimates and United Nations (2005).
5
5
10
%
Women
10
%
Ined 325 06
Women
Ined 322 06
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
Figure 13.– Latin America and Caribbean: population pyramids of the region and of five selected countries,
1950, 2000 and 2020 (projection)
0
0
40-44
30-34
60-64
70-74
40-44
2020
Men
30-34
Women
Age
80 +
40-44
60-64
70-74
Ined 321 06
50-54
2000
Men
Age
80 +
LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN
50-54
Women
Ined 320 06
50-54
60-64
70-74
Age
80 +
5_6(3)ok_America.fm Page 555 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:29 13
555
5
0
0
5
10
%
10
%
5
0
0-4
0
10-14
0-4
0-4
0
20-24
10-14
10-14
5
30-34
20-24
20-24
10
%
40-44
60-64
70-74
Age
80 +
0-4
30-34
10
%
0
30-34
2020
Men
5
50-54
5
10
%
40-44
60-64
Women
Ined 330 06
10
%
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
50-54
2000
70-74
Age
80 +
MEXICO
5
2020
Men
40-44
0
Women
Ined 329 06
0
Women
Age
80 +
50-54
60-64
70-74
Age
80 +
Men
0
0-4
0-4
5
10-14
10-14
10
%
20-24
20-24
10
%
30-34
30-34
5
40-44
0
50-54
60-64
70-74
40-44
2000
Men
Ined 327 06
0
0
5
Source: ECLAC estimates and United Nations (2005).
10
%
10
%
Ined 331 06
Women
5
Women
Ined 328 06
Figure 13. (cont’d) – Latin America and Caribbean: population pyramids of the region and of five selected countries,
1950, 2000 and 2020 (projection)
1950
Men
5
Women
Age
80 +
ARGENTINA
50-54
60-64
70-74
Ined 326 06
556
10
%
10
%
1950
Men
Age
80 +
5_6(3)ok_America.fm Page 556 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:29 13
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
10
%
10
%
5
5
0
0
0
5
10
%
10
%
0
0
5
10
%
10
%
5
0
0-4
0
10-14
0-4
0-4
5
20-24
10-14
10-14
10
%
30-34
20-24
20-24
10
%
40-44
30-34
60-64
40-44
2020
70-74
30-34
5
Women
Age
80 +
40-44
60-64
70-74
Ined 336 06
50-54
2000
Men
Age
80 +
GUATEMALA
50-54
0
Women
Ined 335 06
50-54
60-64
70-74
Age
80 +
Men
5
0-4
0
10-14
0-4
0-4
5
20-24
10-14
10-14
10
%
30-34
20-24
20-24
10
%
40-44
30-34
60-64
70-74
30-34
2020
Men
50-54
5
Women
40-44
60-64
70-74
Age
80 +
50-54
2000
Men
Ined 333 06
40-44
0
Women
Age
80 +
BRAZIL
50-54
60-64
70-74
Ined 332 06
0
0
5
Source: ECLAC estimates and United Nations (2005).
10
%
10
%
Ined 337 06
Women
5
Women
Ined 334 06
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
Figure 13. (cont’d) – Latin America and Caribbean: population pyramids of the region and of five selected countries,
1950, 2000 and 2020 (projection)
1950
Men
1950
Men
Age
80 +
5_6(3)ok_America.fm Page 557 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:29 13
557
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
(ECLAC, 2004) have emphasized that to exploit this opportunity policy-makers
must encourage job creation – a complex task in Latin America and the
Caribbean, where a large share of the population works in the informal sector
and in casual employment. Observers have also noted that this phase is of
limited duration, hence the need to act effectively before population ageing
gains momentum (Carvalho, 2002).
2. A rapidly ageing region
One of the most significant effects of these unprecedented changes is
population ageing due to the fertility decline in the past several decades, and
the ongoing rise in life expectancy. The effect will intensify in the first half of
this century.
In all Latin American and Caribbean countries, the proportion and
absolute number of elderly people will grow rapidly in the decades ahead
(Table 9) (Miró 2003). The population aged 60+ will rise by 58 million, from
42 million today to over 100 million in 2025; between 2025 and 2050, their
number is projected to grow by 88 million(28). The population of old people is
expanding rapidly (at a rate of 3.5% over the period 2000-2025), at a faster pace
than younger age groups. In 2000-2025 and 2025-2050, it will grow at
respectively three and five times the rate of the total population. The number of
over-60s will more than double between 2000 and 2025 as a consequence. By
2050, one Latin American in four will be an elderly person. With people living
longer, the percentage of the very old (aged 75 and over) will rise as well, from
1% to 5% between 2000 and 2050. Two age-structure indicators clearly show
the demographic repercussions of this process. First, the median age of the
population will rise by 15 years between 2000 and 2050: one half of the
population will be over 40 in 2050. Second, the ratio of old people to under-15s
will be reversed. Today, there are 25 adults aged 60+ for 100 young people aged
under 15; by about 2050, the ratio will be 133 to 100.
TABLE 9.– LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN: DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING INDICATORS,
2000, 2025 AND 2050 (PROJECTION)
Indicators
2000
2025
Population aged 60+ (thousands)
42,330
100,673
Percentage of population aged 60+
8.1
14.5
Annual growth rate of population aged 60+
(2000-2025 and 2025-2050) (%)
3.5
Percentage of population aged 75+
1.0
2.1
Median age of population (years)
24.4
32.3
Ageing index(a) (%)
25.3
61.9
(a) Ratio of elderly population aged 60+ to population of under-15s multiplied by 100.
Source: United Nations (2005). Central hypothesis for projections.
2050
188,652
24.1
2.5
5.2
39.9
133.4
(28) The data supplied are based on projections. Nevertheless, they suggest broad
demographic trends that will not undergo significant shifts, since the old people of the next sixty
years are already alive.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
559
Ageing patterns vary substantially across the region. The countries fall
into four broad groups, ranging from incipient ageing to very advanced
ageing(29) (Figure 14).
30
Percentage
Ined 006 07
25
20
15
10
5
0
Incipient ageing
2000
Moderate ageing
2025
Advanced ageing
Very advanced ageing
2050
Figure 14.– Share of population aged 60+ in country groups where ageing is
incipient, moderate, advanced or very advanced,
2000, 2025 and 2050.
Note: see text for list of countries in each category.
Sources: ECLAC/CELADE, 2003 demographic projections; United Nations (2001).
The first group, where the population is only just starting to age, includes
Bolivia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua and Paraguay. The proportion
of persons aged 60 and over, which stood at 5-7% in 2000, is expected to reach
15-18% in 2050. The process could accelerate if the fertility decline gains
momentum.
In the second, “moderate ageing” group, the proportion of persons aged
60 and over ranged between 6% and 8% in 2000. The figure will exceed 20%
in 2050. Ten countries fit this profile: Belize, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador,
El Salvador, Guyana, Mexico, Peru, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela.
They are countries where fertility underwent significant changes between
1965 and 1990.
The third group consists of “advanced ageing” countries where the
proportion of elderly people ranged from 8% to 10% in 2000. Their share is
(29) This classification is based on the estimated values of the total fertility rate and the
ageing index for each country in the decade 1990-1999. Some countries may be reclassified if
estimates are revised to take account of the most recent census data.
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
expected to grow rapidly, reaching 25-30% by 2050. This category includes
the Bahamas, Brazil, Chile, Jamaica, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.
The final group, which is experiencing “very advanced ageing”,
comprises countries such as Argentina and Uruguay, pioneers of the fertility
transition in Latin America, along with Cuba and several Caribbean islands
(Netherlands Antilles, Barbados, Guadeloupe, Martinique and Puerto Rico).
While diversified, the ageing process is a region-wide phenomenon. It is
having direct effects on social protection systems – both formal and informal
– and will represent a heavy burden in terms of funding and infrastructure
over years to come (Mesa-Lago, 1985; ECLAC, 2006). Ageing will exert
strong pressure on the financing of social benefits, in both pay-as-you-go
contributory systems and non-contributory systems. Today, only one-third of
the countries of the region that have adopted structural reforms provide social
assistance pensions (Bertranou, 2005a, 2005b): in many cases, the oldest-old
are taken care of by their families. Some countries of the region, such as
Chile, have a rapidly ageing population (persons aged 60+ currently account
for 11% of the total) and have developed pension systems essentially based on
personal contributions. This leaves a significant share of the workforce –
particularly women – without coverage, a situation that is likely to put ever
greater strain on public resources (Bravo and Bertranou, 2006). Lastly, a large
share of healthcare costs is still borne by families (ECLAC, 2006), who
provide their elders with financial support or take care of them directly.
Hence, in the years ahead, population ageing will also place a heavy burden
on families themselves.
VIII. Spatial distribution of the population
and internal migration
1. A highly urbanized region
Latin America and the Caribbean form the most urbanized region of the
developing world. According to United Nations estimates (30) , 77% of the
population lived in urban areas in 2005, above Europe’s 72% and second only to
North America’s 81%. UN projections put the urban population at around
610 million in 2030 (up from 434 million in 2005)(31), and the rural population
at approximately 113 million (down from 127 million in 2005). By that date,
the urban population will thus represent 84% of the total (Table 10).
(30) Regularly updated online
(31) The urban population is
at: http://esa.un.org/unup/
the population living in localities classified as urban areas
according to each country’s specific criteria, a definition that raises problems of comparability.
However, studies using other indicators, such as the share of the population living in towns and
cities of at least 20,000 inhabitants, confirm the region’s high level of urbanization (Figure 15).
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
561
TABLE 10.– LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN: POPULATION RESIDING
IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS (THOUSANDS) AND PERCENTAGE URBAN, 1950-2030
Place of
residence
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
Rural
197,084 111,062 122,178 126,522 129,007 128,717 126,914 125,210 120,613 113,409
Urban
170,237 107,515 163,018 235,688 314,739 394,212 434,432 473,561 546,342 608,968
Total
167,321 218,577 285,196 362,210 443,746 522,929 561,346 598,771 666,955 722,377
Percentage
urban
42.0
49.2
57.2
65.1
70.9
75.4
77.4
79.1
81.9
84.3
Source: United Nations (2005); United Nations (2006).
Today, four out of ten Latin Americans live in city of at least 500,000 inhabitants, a distinctly higher proportion than in Europe (Table 11). The census
figures compiled in the CELADE database confirm this eminently urban
profile of most countries in the region: a majority of the population lives in towns
of 20,000 or more inhabitants (Figure 15).
TABLE 11.– BROAD REGIONS OF THE WORLD: POPULATION LIVING IN CITIES
500,000 OR MORE INHABITANTS, AND PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION
(ESTIMATES FOR 2005)
OF
Population (thousands) living in cities of:
Region
of the world
10 million
500,0005-10 million 1-5 million
or more
1 million
inhabitants inhabitants
inhabitants
inhabitants
Latin America
and Caribbean
62,164
Africa
22,281
Asia
166,346
Europe
10,672
Oceania
0
North America
30,644
Source: United Nations (2004).
26,701
5,717
103,341
34,495
0
24,477
97,661
82,893
344,756
101,738
13,592
85,716
38,727
34,084
171,661
48,167
521
26,918
Percentage
of population living
in cities
of 500,000 or more
inhabitants
40.4
16.3
20.1
26.9
42.8
50.5
The percentage urban in the region varies between countries (Figure 16).
The differences are significant and – with a few exceptions such as Costa Rica
and Cuba – tend to coincide with the degree of progress in the demographic
transition.
At one end, there is a highly urbanized group of countries: the three
Southern Cone countries (Argentina, Uruguay and Chile), plus Venezuela, in
which the urban population represents close to 90% of the total, according to
national definitions, and over 70% of the population lives in towns of at least
20,000 inhabitants. Within this group, Argentina and Uruguay, which
underwent early urbanization, stand apart from Chile and Venezuela, where
urbanization occurred later, but at a faster pace.
At the other end, we find less urbanized countries where the rate of urbanization is moderate to slow. They comprise several countries of Mesoamerica,
the least urbanized sub-region of Latin America and the Caribbean: Guatemala,
Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador.
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Country
Ined 007 07
Chile
Argentina
Venezuela
Uruguay
Brazil
Mexico
Panama
Ecuador
Bolivia
Dominican Rep.
Costa Rica
Paraguay
Honduras
Guatemala
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Percentage
Figure 15.– Latin America and Caribbean: percentage of national population
living in towns of 20,000 or more inhabitants
(censuses conducted since 2000)
Source: CELADE, 2006, DEPUALC database, www.eclac.cl/celade/depualc/
Most other countries in the region lie between these two extremes, particularly Brazil and Mexico, which have urbanized rapidly in recent decades
and which, because of their demographic weight, have set the pace for the
entire region.
Urbanization has outpaced economic and social development in the
region. As a result, Latin American and Caribbean towns and cities – even
more so than their counterparts in developed countries – are facing problems
such as poverty, deprivation, insecurity, predominance of informal systems,
and inadequate social protection.
Poverty is even more widespread in rural areas, which are still home to
one in four Latin Americans. In several countries, most of the population lives
in rural areas or small towns (2,000-20,000 inhabitants), where living
conditions are generally very difficult (ECLAC, 2005).
Regional urbanization has followed a pattern of strongly hierarchical
urban systems. In most countries, the primacy index (ratio of population of
largest city to population of next three largest cities combined) is above 2: this
is a rather unusual figure in other countries of the world, which are structured
around large cities (United Nations, 2004). One in three Latin Americans lives
in a city of over one million inhabitants, and 4 of the world’s 14 most
populous cities in 2000 were located in the region: São Paulo, Mexico City,
Buenos Aires, and Rio de Janeiro. Most of the rural population is scattered
among numerous small villages with limited infrastructure and services and
25-49.9%
75% or more
Under 25%
50-74.9%
2005
Source: United Nations (2006).
Figure 16.– Latin America and Caribbean: percentage of urban population by country, 1950 and 2005
1950
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poor communications; moreover, in the few relatively dense rural areas
(Mexican plateau, large Caribbean islands, high plateau of the Andes), living
conditions are harsh compared with those of urban areas in the same countries.
The growth of large cities (500,000 inhabitants or more) has slowed and
their share of the total urban population has decreased for various reasons:
first, these urban units have a low natural growth owing to the fertility decline;
second, the economic crises of the last quarter-century have been particularly
severe in the large metropolises; third, decentralization and regional
development policies have dampened their growth. By contrast, mid-sized
cities (between 50,000 and 500,000 inhabitants) have registered the fastest
growth, with their population share increasing across the entire urban system.
As this category combines many highly diverse urban conurbations, it is
difficult to identify common growth factors(32). In any event, the outcome has
been a gradual deconcentration, diversification and extension of the urban
fabric. Some analysts have qualified the process as merely virtual – referring
to it as a “concentrated deconcentration” – because based on the rapid
expansion of a ring of medium-sized cities around the large metropolises
(Pinto da Cunha, 2002). But several recent studies tend to confirm that the
process is indeed real (Rodríguez, 2002; Rodríguez and Villa, 1998).
2. Internal migration
As regards internal migration, the analysis of census data (33) yields
some broad general conclusions.
a) Migration intensity varies from one country to another (34) . This
variability is linked less to each country’s degree of development than to
public policies encouraging territorial redistribution of the population. For
instance, the highest migration intensity between localities was observed in
Paraguay owing to a radical change in population settlement patterns.
(32) Their expansion may have been driven by new development strategies. This is the
case of border towns, tourist localities, or towns and cities located in free zones, as well as in
areas producing primary products for export. To cite just a few examples: the rapid growth of
cities on Mexico’s northern border, some of which now have over one million inhabitants; the
growth of tourist cities such as Cancún, a modest fishing village in 1950, which had more than
400,000 inhabitants in 2000; and the growth of towns hosting regional export-production
conglomerates such as Puerto Montt in Chile. In other cases, the decisive factors are local and
contingent, enabling medium-sized localities to establish positions at the heart of sub-national
urban systems. Lastly, a significant number of towns of this size are located on the outskirts of
metropolises, and are expanding rapidly at their expense. It is this group that has fuelled the
hypothesis of “concentrated deconcentration” mentioned in the text.
(33) Since the series of censuses in the 1980s, the data have been available in CELADE’s
Migración Interna en América Latina y el Caribe (MIALC) database (www.eclac.cl/migracion/
migracion_interna/).
(34) Migration-intensity indicators are affected by exogenous factors such as the number
and size of administrative divisions included in the computation (Bell, 2005; Greenwood, 1997).
However, a standard census question is available: the municipality of residence (municipio) five
years prior to the census. This can be used to compute the proportions of people aged 5 and over
who were living in another municipality five years earlier. This measure still has comparability
problems, but is the best indicator we can compute using Latin American census microdata.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
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b) The predominant form of migration consists of flows between urban
areas, as to be expected in a region as urbanized as Latin America and the
Caribbean(35).
c) Net emigration from rural areas persists, for the region has not experienced a massive “return to the countryside” despite its vigorous agricultural
and forestry export sectors. In fact, though the contribution of rural migrants to
urban demographic expansion is decreasing, it is still positive. Rural emigration
is still quantitatively significant, which explains the demographic stabilization
and ageing of rural areas despite their early stage of demographic transition.
d) Migration from major metropolises to other towns and cities continues,
with variations over time and between countries (Table 12). These migrants
head for localities that are more dynamic or offer a better quality of life. In
certain cases, they move to towns located around large cities. In such cases the
decline in the cities' demographic weight is offset by the extension of their
sphere of influence.
e) The migration appeal of the capitals of certain small countries with
strongly hierarchical urban systems – such as Panama City (Table 12) –
remains intact, so it cannot be generally concluded that metropolises are
“driving out” their inhabitants.
TABLE 12.– ESTIMATED VOLUME OF MIGRATION TO, FROM AND WITHIN
SELECTED METROPOLITAN CONURBATIONS
Metropolis
Immigrants
Emigrants
from towns
to towns and
and cities
cities outside
outside the
the metropolis
metropolis (1)
(2)
Intrametropolitan
migrants
Mexico City (1995-2000)
426,062
490,274
1,408,570
Rio de Janeiro (1995-2000)
304,999
322,620
313,257
São Paulo (1995-2000)
830,141
1,013,200
584,638
Santiago de Chile
(1997-2002)
227,648
277,022
779,642
Quito (1996-2001)
129,895
66,452
38,456
Managua (1990-1995)
43,082
13,197
2,578
Panama City (1995-2000)
107,154
21,105
88,087
San José (1995-2000)
42,866
58,147
78,302
Source: Rodríguez (2004), based on censuses conducted in the 2000s.
Net migration
(1)–(2)
–64,212
–17,621
–183,059
–49,374
63,443
29,885
86,049
–15,281
f) Intra-metropolitan migration is expanding and becoming polarized
(Rodríguez, 2004; Dureau et al., 2002). In addition to the historical flow of
the poor to the outskirts, there is now a flow of well-to-do families to rural
(35) In Brazil, for example, an estimate for the period 1995-2000 shows that 10.8 million
people migrated between urban areas – disregarding flows between municipalities of the same
conurbation – while barely more than 2 million migrated between cities and rural areas (Rodríguez,
2004, pp. 119-122). Estimates based on the classification of urban and rural municipalities indicate
that most migration in Mexico in the 1980s occurred between conurbations. For the period 1995-2000,
inter-municipal migration represented 70% of the total, while migration from rural areas to urban
areas accounted for only 14% (Rodríguez, 2004, p. 121-122).
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areas close to the metropolis, equipped with services and urban infrastructure,
from which residents commute to the city for work or study(36).
Lastly, it is important to mention one of the most dramatic consequences
of internal migration to large cities: the appearance of shanty towns(37) where
migrants from rural areas and other groups have settled since the 1930s. In
some Latin American cities, these neighbourhoods now represent a sizeable
share of the housing stock. Over time, some of them have been consolidated and
blended into their environment. It is no longer a question of eradicating them
(apart from exceptional cases involving environmental hazards) but rather of
consolidating them by taking account of the human and social dimension while
addressing the key issues of housing, infrastructure and communications. Two
examples are the Favela-Barrio programme in Brazil and the Chile-Barrio
programme in Chile. Moreover, the expansion of existing shanty towns and the
growth of new ones are increasingly driven by intra-metropolitan migration.
Several countries are faced with a paradoxical situation where the poor leave
the relatively well-developed central districts to settle in shanty towns on the
outskirts where direct costs (particularly rents) are lower but indirect costs
(transport, access to services, health hazards) can prove to be far higher.
IX. Characteristics of international migration (38)
Recent decades have been marked by large-scale emigration flows to
countries outside the region. The flows have become larger, with a broader
range of destinations, and the proportion of women among migrants has
increased. It is estimated that in 2005, slightly more than 27 million Latin
Americans and Caribbeans lived outside their home country, representing
more than 10% of international migrants world-wide.
Following the Second World War, immigration from countries outside the
region fell sharply, while return migration to Europe grew in scale. Hence, since
the 1960s, the number of immigrants born outside the region has fallen steadily.
Totalling 4 million in 1970, their number had fallen to just over 2.5 million by
1990 and less than 2 million by 2000. The proportion of people born outside the
region among the total immigrant population dropped from over 75% in 1970 to
slightly more than 50% in 1990 and 40% in 2000 (Table 13).
(36) The term “rurbanization” has been coined to describe the phenomenon.
(37) Shanty towns (tugurios in Spanish) are variously referred to as favelas in
Brazil, villas
miseria in Argentina, barrios in Venezuela, poblaciones callampas or campamentos in Chile, and so on.
(38) Most of the data on international migration are taken from the census results available in
the IMILA project (Project on Investigation of International Migration in Latin America) database set
up by the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center (CELADE) (www.eclac.cl/celade) of
the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The contents of the
present chapter are based mainly on a document presented at the meeting of the ECLAC group of
experts on migration, human rights and development held in Port of Spain in 2005.
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TABLE 13.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: INTRA- AND EXTRA-REGIONAL
IMMIGRANT POPULATION (1970 TO 2000)
Region of origin
Latin America and Caribbean
(intra-regional migration)
Enumerated population and breakdown in %(a)
1970
1980
1990
2000
1,218,990
23.9%
1,995,149
36.9%
2,242,268
48.8%
2,971,888
60.6%
Rest of world (extra-regional
migration)
3,873,420
3,411,426
2,350,441
1,935,499
76.1%
63.1%
51.2%
39.4%
Total
5,092,410
5,406,575
4,592,709
4,907,387
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
(a) covering 16 countries for the censuses of the 1970s, 14 for those of the 1980s, 13 for those of the
1990s and 14 for 2000.
Source: estimates based on IMILA, ECLAC/CELADE data.
The region of Latin America and the Caribbean is characterized by extensive
intra-regional population movements which are strongly rooted in the economic and
social history of these countries. Favoured by geographical and cultural proximity,
intra-regional migration mainly concerns countries offering the best employment
opportunities or the most advantageous social conditions. Alongside these structural
factors, this migratory pattern has been affected by cycles of economic expansion
and recession and by sociopolitical upheaval (Pellegrino, 1993, 1995, 2000). This is
the case for the Central American countries that were destabilized by internal
conflict, and for South American countries that were governed by totalitarian
regimes during the 1970s and 1980s. However, the restoration of democracy in the
1990s did not slow down emigration, which is probably determined by a more
complex set of factors. Chile and Costa Rica are the only countries where
immigration from neighbouring countries has increased, thanks to their economic
and political stability.
Intra-regional migrants accounted for 60% of the immigrant stock in
2000 (Table 13), and already represented 50% in 1990. The origins and
destinations of the intra-regional migratory flows have varied little, despite
changing socioeconomic and political conditions.
In the 1990s and early 2000s, the largest number of intra-regional
migrants came from Colombia. Slightly more than 600,000 Colombians in
1990 and 700,000 in 2000 were counted in the censuses of other Latin
American countries, of whom almost 90% were in Venezuela. One of the
factors behind this large-scale immigration was the need for displaced
populations to find refuge elsewhere. Next come the Paraguayans and the
Chileans, with respective totals of 360,000 and 270,000 people (counted
mainly in Argentina). Though large, these groups represent less than 3% of
the total population of their country of origin(39) (except for Paraguay).
(39) Uruguayan emigration, mainly to Argentina, is a special case: in the early 1970s, the
national emigration rate equalled the mortality rate (Fortuna and Niedworok, 1985).
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Migration within the English-speaking countries of the Carribean
Community (CARICOM) is characterized by a low level of permanent
migration. Circular migration between the different countries of the subregion, all located in close geographical proximity, is predominant (Simmons
and Guengant, 1992). In 1990, slightly more than half of all CARICOM
immigrants came from within the sub-region and represented almost 4% of
the total population of all member countries (Mills, 1997). Generally
speaking, international migration has strongly influenced the population
dynamics of the Caribbean countries. Migratory flows from Haiti to the
Dominican Republic have deep historical roots, and have remained largely
unchanged in the recent past. The flows observed in recent years are
characterized by a high proportion of undocumented migrants, employment in
the informal labour market, selection by educational level and growing labour
force participation of women (Silié et al., 2002).
With the decline in immigration from countries outside the region,
which has not been offset by increased intra-regional migration, emigration
away from the region now represents the largest migrant flow. It is estimated
that some three-quarters of immigrants head for the United States, forming a
South-North migration flow with many adverse consequences for the
countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, not least the “brain drain”.
Moreover, undocumented migrants are themselves exposed to numerous risks
(from the absence of rights to expulsion from the host country). This
emigration has also led to the formation of transnational migrant communities
who send money back to their home country, thereby supporting its economy.
Emigration to the United States of people born in the region – notably in
Mexico and the Caribbean – is not a new phenomenon(40), though its scale has
varied over time according to the economic and sociopolitical situation and to
the American immigration laws in force. A more recent trend is the sharp
increase in the number of migrants from Central and South America which
began in the mid-twentieth century. Altogether, the number of Latin American
and Caribbean immigrants living in the USA doubled between 1980 and 1990.
They totalled an estimated 18 million in 2004 (14.5 million in 2000), i.e.
slightly more than half of all the immigrants living in the country.
Immigration from Latin America and the Caribbean also increased by an
estimated 100% between 1990 and 2004 (Lollock, 2001; www.census.gov).
Mesoamericans represent an estimated 68% of all immigrants from the region
(Mexicans account for more than 50%), followed by Caribbeans at 19%
(Figure 17 and Table 14). Behind the Mexicans, the main other immigrant
groups in the United States are Cubans, Salvadorians, Dominicans and
Colombians, though each nationality counts fewer than one million
individuals.
(40) The Hispanic community, comprising old and new immigrants and their descendants,
is now the largest ethnic minority in the United States.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
100
569
Percentage
Ined 010 07
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
South America
1990
Mesoamerica
2000
Year
Caribbean
Figure 17.– Breakdown of the Latin American population living
in the United States by sub-region of origin (%)
Sources: Villa and Martínez (2002), from the IMILA database; for 2000, Current Population Survey.
TABLE 14.– DISTRIBUTION OF THE LATIN AMERICAN POPULATION ENUMERATED
IN THE UNITED STATES IN 1970, 1980, 1990, AND 2000
Enumerated population and breakdown (%)
Origin
1970
Mesoamerica
1980
1990
2000
Mean annual
growth rate (%)
1970- 1980- 19901980
1990
2000
873,624 2,530,440 5,391,943 9,789,000 10.6
50.6%
57.7%
64.4%
67.6%
Caribbean
617,551 1,358,610 2,107,181 2,813,000
7.9
35.8%
31.0%
25.2%
19.4%
South America
234,233
493,950
871,678 1,876,000
7.5
13.6%
11.3%
10.4%
13.0%
Overall
1,725,408 4,383,000 8,370,802 14,478,000
9.3
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Source: IMILA project, CELADE; for 2000, Current Population Survey.
7.6
6.0
4.4
2.9
5.7
7.7
6.5
5.5
The Latin American and Caribbean immigrants in the United States
form a very heterogeneous population. Overall, men outnumber women
because there are large numbers of immigrants from Mexico and Central
America where most emigration candidates are men. The majority of
immigrants from the Caribbean and South America, on the other hand, are
women. These latter two groups also have a much higher level of education
than the Mesoamericans, and the women are more often economically active
(Martínez, 2003a).
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Mexican immigrants living in the United States form a group with very
specific characteristics: they are by far the most numerous, they count the
largest proportion of undocumented immigrants, they are the least qualified,
and present the broadest ethnic diversity and geographical dispersion. More
than 20 million people born in Mexico or with Mexican-born ascendants live
in the United States. They form a community with a very strong social,
economic and cultural influence.
Three million Latin Americans were registered in other countries in
2000. Canada(41), certain European countries (notably Spain and the United
Kingdom), Japan, Australia and Israel are the main destinations. In several
European countries and in Japan, the number of Latin Americans and
Caribbeans has been increased by the return of former emigrants who
acquired the nationality of their host country, and the arrival of descendants
who are granted citizenship in their family’s country of origin. Hence, Spain
recently became the number two receiving country for Latin American and
Caribbean emigraton. A total of 840,000 people from the region were counted
in the 2001 census, mainly from South America (84%), Andean countries such
as Ecuador and Colombia, and Argentina. More recent estimates, based on
municipal registers, give a total of 1.7 million Latin American migrants in
Spain (ECLAC, SEGIB, 2006). Most of these immigrants are women
(Izquierdo et al., 2002). Several studies have shown that Latin Americans
living in Spain are highly qualified. They tend to work in specific economic
sectors, but thanks to their experience and their family and social networks,
they rapidly achieve social and professional mobility (Anguiano, 2002;
Martínez Buján, 2003).
In the case of Japan, immigration, primarily from Brazil and Peru, has
been encouraged by measures adopted in the 1990s to grant entry and
temporary residence visas to direct descendants of Japanese citizens who
migrated to Brazil and Peru in the first decades of the twentieth century. In
2000, more than 300,000 people living in Japan were Latin Americans (80%
Brazilians). Most of these immigrants are male industrial workers, though the
number of women is also increasing (Martínez, 2003a).
X. Access to education for men and women
Over the last fifty years, the educational level of Latin American and
Caribbean populations has progressed to unprecedented degree. In 1950, the
region had an illiteracy rate of around 40% among persons aged 15 and above;
by 2005 it had fallen below 10%. The speed of progress has varied between
countries and the illiteracy rate remains high in some countries, notably the
Andean and Mesoamerican countries with large indigenous populations
(41) Canada
has a wide-reaching permanent admission programme for immigrants.
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(Bolivia, Guatemala, Peru) but also in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and
Brazil (Appendix Table A.30). In the other countries, illiteracy is less widespread
and mainly concerns old people, the poorest populations(42) and those living
in rural areas.
In all countries of the region, the proportion of persons who complete
primary schooling has increased rapidly from one cohort group to the next
(Figure 18). In the Southern Cone countries which pioneered the fertility
transition (Argentina and Uruguay), almost 80% of women born around 1940
completed their primary schooling, compared with only 15% or less in three
Mesoamerican countries (Guatemala, Nicaragua and Honduras). Though the
educational level is rising everywhere, there are still large, though narrowing,
disparities between countries. For example, among the 1980-1984 cohorts,
95% of individuals completed primary schooling in Argentina, Uruguay and
Chile, compared with just 60% in Guatemala (Appendix Table A.31).
Percentage
Ined 011 07
100
Argentina
90
Bolivia
Brazil
80
Chile
Colombia
70
Costa Rica
Ecuador
60
El Salvador
Guatemala
50
Honduras
Mexico
40
Nicaragua
Panama
30
Paraguay
Peru
20
Dominican Rep.
10
Uruguay
Venezuela
0
1935 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1975-80 1981-85
and before
Years of birth
Figure 18.– Latin America and the Caribbean: proportion of women
who completed their primary schooling by cohort group (19 countries)
Source: Appendix Table A.33.
(42) Despite the progress achieved, young people from poor households in the region are still
much less likely to reach a high educational level: only 30% of young people in Latin America whose
parents did not complete primary schooling reach the end of secondary school, compared with more
than 80% of those whose parents completed their secondary schooling (CEPAL, 2004, Una década de
desarrollo social en América Latina, 1990-1999, Santiago de Chile).
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In most countries, there is no longer a significant difference between female
and male illiteracy rates (Figure 19). The only exceptions are Peru and Bolivia in
the Andean sub-region, Guatemala in the Mesoamerican sub-region and, to a
lesser extent, Haiti in the Caribbean. Note that these figures concern persons aged
15 or above, so do not reflect recent changes. Data on the youngest cohorts
indicate that gender differences have disappeared in the aforementioned
countries, thanks to the universal provision of primary education throughout the
region. Among the youngest cohorts, the trend is even reversing in some
countries, with boys increasingly lagging behind girls (Appendix Table A.34).
Moreover, in a growing number of countries, the majority of students in
secondary and higher education are girls (CEPAL, 2004).
60
Female rate (%)
Ined 012 07
Haiti
50
Guatemala
40
Nicaragua
30
El Salvador
Bolivia
Honduras
20
Peru
Jamaica
10
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Male rate (%)
Figure 19.– Male and female illiteracy rates in 2000 (%)
Source: Appendix Table A.30.
Conclusion
Latin America and the Caribbean are engaged in a process of demographic
transition that began several decades ago. With the decline in mortality, life
expectancy increased by twenty years on average between 1950 and 2000.
Fertility started falling in the mid-1960s, from almost 6 children per woman
in 1960-1964 to 2.5 in the early 2000s. The natural growth rate has fallen
sharply, while net migration has been affected by more massive emigration to
countries outside the region.
Despite the inconsistent quality of the data upon which demographic
estimates are based, the key components of these demographic dynamics are
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
573
now more clearly understood, notably thanks to the growing number of recent
surveys conducted in the region. They can be summarized as follows.
Population growth in Latin America is slowing down. In most countries,
the young population is growing very slowly, and in some their weight is no
longer increasing. This situation opens new prospects for investment in
human capital. It is to be hoped that the countries of the region will seize the
opportunities arising out of this transition to increase investments in
education and improve the efficiency and coverage of social protection
systems so that growing demand for services among the ageing population
can be met in years to come. While the second half of the twentieth century
was the era of falling birth rates, the first half of the twenty-first century will
be that of population ageing in all countries of the region.
The overall decline in fertility stems from an increasingly widespread
small family preference. Despite the existence of barriers which perpetuate
and even aggravate social inequalities, contraceptive use is rising everywhere,
and the availability of contraception via both public and private channels is
increasingly enabling women, including those who are poor and uneducated,
to control their fertility. By the end of the decade, the number of children per
woman is likely to fall below two children in many countries.
Mortality has also fallen sharply, resulting in much longer life
expectancy. Though disparities between countries still exist, the mortality
transition is well under way everywhere. In many cases, the life expectancy
gains are enormous. Only the HIV-AIDS epidemic is having a negative impact
in some countries. The growing number of violent deaths is also limiting the
rise in male life expectancy, and sometimes broadening the gap between men
and women. Indeed, female life expectancy has reached 80 years – a level
similar to that of Northern countries – in some countries of the region (such as
Chile, Costa Rica and Puerto Rico). Life expectancy nevertheless remains low
in some countries, Haiti especially, where sanitation is poor and health care
inadequate.
Latin America and the Caribbean is the most highly urbanized
“developing” region of the world. This raises opportunities but also major
challenges that have generally been addressed slowly and ineffectively by
successive governments. Beyond this urban reality, a vast process of
population redistribution is under way in the region, in response to more
complex and varied mechanisms than the traditional flows from rural to urban
areas. These processes have sometimes been initiated or encouraged by
specific policies, though they have mostly occurred spontaneously, thereby
exposing a non-negligible proportion of the population, the poorest categories
in particular, to unhealthy or dangerous environments.
Latin America has become a major source of emigration, and almost
20 million Latin Americans live outside the region. Emigration is increasing,
the range of destinations is becoming broader and the emigrants' educational
level is rising, as is the proportion of women. Alongside emigration to the
United States, especially massive during the 1990s (three-quarters of the
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region’s emigrants), emigration to Europe has also increased in the last fifteen
years. There is also a high level of intra-regional migration, linked to
employment opportunities in neighbouring countries and hence to the economic
situation.
Demographic behaviour has changed in all countries, with persistent
disparities between different social groups. In certain areas – adolescent
fertility for example – the gap is even widening. Latin America has the largest
income differentials in the world, a fact that reflects the persistence of social
structures offering unequal access to goods and services, and the inadequacy
of public policies.
Beyond these characteristics, certain paradoxes are also worth highlighting.
One is the consistently high level of adolescent fertility, despite the drop in
overall fertility. This behaviour pattern is associated with models of early
conjugal union that appear to be totally unaffected by the major social
changes occurring in the region. Another paradox is the persistence and even
aggravation of social inequality, rather than the gradual convergence of
behaviours that might be expected on the most urbanized continent of the
developing world. Last, there is no truly sub-regional demographic model:
very different patterns persist and co-exist in each sub-region.
Lastly, the demography of Latin America has changed radically and will
doubtless continue to do so. Projections suggest that over coming decades the
region will become increasingly urbanized, its population will grow even
more slowly, that life expectancy at birth will continue to rise and that its
inhabitants will be increasingly mobile, both inside and outside the region.
But other scenarios are also possible. A faster fertility decline would lead to
faster population ageing. A slowdown in the mortality decline – due to an
increase in accidental deaths for example – would limit male life expectancy
gains; highly selective emigration may substantially reduce the capacity of the
sending countries to pursue their development. In all events, demographic
inertia is such that the next stage in the process is already partly foreseeable.
Let us hope that this knowledge will be usefully exploited by the governments
of each Latin American country to address the needs of future generations.
Acknowledgements: The authors thank Sandra Huenchuan, Jorge Bravo and
Fabiana del Popolo for their collaboration.
Grenada
Trinidad and
Tobago
Barbados
Caribbean
Southern Cone and Brazil
Panama
Ecuador
Guatemala
El Salvador
Nicaragua
Costa Rica
Mexico
Chile
Peru
Colombia
Argentina
ay
Uruguay
Brazil
French Guiana
Guyana
Suriname
ra
gu
Pa
Bolivia
Venezuela
Ba
ha
ma
s
.
Rep
Cuba
Haiti
an co
i
inic
R
m
Do uerto
P
Belize
Jama
Lesser
ica
Antilles
Honduras
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
Map of Latin America and the Caribbean – Countries and sub-regions
Andean countries
Mesoamerica
Latin America and the Caribbean
Netherlands Antilles
Dominica
Guadeloupe
Antigua and Barbuda
Anguilla
Saint Lucia
Martinique
Saint-Kitts and Nevis
British Virgin Islands
Lesser Antilles
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575
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STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Population-E 2006, 61(5-6), 577-620
Year
1970s
Population
size
%
Year
1980s
Population
size
%
Year
1990s
Population
size
%
Year
2000s
Population
size
%
578
Peru
1972
3,467,140
30.5
1981(a) 3,626,944
24.8
2001
8,500,000
32.0
Mexico
1970
3,111,415
7.7
1980(a) 5,181,038
9.0
1990(a) 5,282,347
7.4
2000
6,101,630
6.3
Bolivia
1976
2,446,097
63.5
1992(b) 3,058,208
59.0
2001
5,008,997
62.2
Guatemala
1973
2,260,079
43.7
1981
2,536,443
41.8
1994
3,476,684
42.8
2002
4,610,440
41.0
Colombia
1973
318,425
1.5
1985
237,759
0.8
1993
532,233
1.6
2005(f)
892,631
2.0
Ecuador
1990
349,074
3.7
2001
830,418
6.8
Brazil
2000
734,127
0.4
Chile
1992(c)
998 385
10.3
2002
692,192
4.6
Venezuela
1982
140,562
0.9
1992(d)
314,772
0.9
2001(g)
506,341
2.2
Nicaragua
2005(h)
443,847
8.6
Honduras
1988(a)
48,789
1.3
2001
427,943
7.0
Argentina
1990(e)
350,000
1.0
2001(i)
402,921
1.1
Panama
1970
75,738
5.3
1980
93,091
5.2
1990
194,269
8.3
2000
285,231
10.1
88,529
1.7
Paraguay
1981
38,703
1.2
1992
29,482
0.7
2002(g)
Costa Rica
2000(g)
63,876
1.7
El Salvador
1990(e)
400,000
7.0
Uruguay
1990(e)
4,000
1.6
(a) Population aged 5 or above; (b) Population aged 6 or above; (c) Population aged 14 or above; (d) Census of indigenous population only; (e) circa 1990;
(f) Projection of indigenous population in Colombia; (g) Includes the indigenous population of the general census plus that of the indigenous population census;
(h) Includes indigenous populations and ethnic communities (Creole and Garifuna); (i) Based on the complementary survey, counting as indigenous the
members of families whose head (or spouse) speaks Quechua, Aymara or an Amazonian language as their mother tongue.
Sources: ECLAC/CELADE, special processing of 2000 census data using the criterion of self-reported ethnic status, applied or imputed to the entire population, Peyser and Chackiel (1994); Pando (1990); ECLAC/CELADE-BID (2005a, 2005b , 2005c); FAO (s.d.) from the 2001 national survey of households
(ENAHO) in Peru; Bodnar (2006); INDEC-Argentina (2006).
Country
TABLE A.1.– LATIN AMERICA: POPULATION SIZE AND PERCENTAGE OF INDIGENOUS POPULATION IN EACH COUNTRY,
1970S, 1980S, 1990S AND 2000S
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
TABLE A.2.– GROSS NATIONAL INCOME PER CAPITA IN THE COUNTRIES
OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN, 2004
Country
Gross national income per capita (USD)
Mesoamerica
Costa Rica
4,349
Guatemala
2,233
Honduras
1,046
Mexico
6,518
Nicaragua
847
Panama
4,325
El Salvador
2,340
Caribbean
Netherlands Antilles
10,794
Bahamas (a)
16,728
Barbados
10,401
Belize
3,870
Cuba
–
Dominica
3,794
Grenada
4,135
Guyana
1,047
Haiti
420
Jamaica
3,352
Dominican Republic
2,130
Saint Lucia
4,663
Suriname
2,484
Trinidad and Tobago
9,640
Andean countries
Bolivia
974
Colombia
2,176
Ecuador
2,322
Peru
2,490
Venezuela
4,214
Southern Cone and Brazil
Argentina
3,988
Brazil
3,284
Chile
5,836
Paraguay
1,220
Uruguay
3,842
(a) Data for 2003.
Source: World Bank (2006), World Development Indicators, www.worldbank.org
579
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580
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE A.3.– POPULATION CENSUS DATES IN COUNTRIES OF LATIN AMERICA
AND THE NON ENGLISH-SPEAKING CARIBBEAN
Country
1950-1959
10-05-1947
05-09-1950
01-07-1950
24-04-1952
09-05-1951
22-05-1950
28-01-1953
29-11-1950
18-04-1950
07-08-1950
18-06-1950
06-06-1950
31-05-1950
10-12-1950
28-10-1950
–
1960-1969
30-09-1960
–
01-09-1960
29-11-1960
15-07-1964
31-03-1963
–
25-11-1962
18-04-1964
–
17-04-1961
08-06-1960
31-05-1963
11-12-1960
14-10-1962
02-07-1961
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
Ecuador
Guatemala
Haiti
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Dominican
Republic 06-08-1950 07-08-1960
El Salvador 13-06-1950 02-05-1961
Uruguay
–
16-10-1963
Venezuela 26-11-1950 26-02-1961
Source: ECLAC: www.eclac.cl/celade
Period
1970-1979 1980-1989
30-09-1970 22-10-1980
29-09-1976
–
01-09-1970 01-09-1980
22-04-1970 21-04-1982
24-10-1973 15-10-1985
14-05-1973 11-06-1984
06-09-1970 11-09-1981
08-06-1974 28-11-1982
26-03-1973 23-03-1981
31-08-1971 30-08-1982
06-03-1974 29-05-1988
28-01-1970 04-06-1980
20-04-1971
–
10-05-1970 11-05-1980
09-07-1972 11-07-1982
04-06-1972 12-07-1981
1990-1999
2000-2006
15-05-1991 17/18-11-2001
03-06-1992 05-09-2001
01-09-1991 01-08-2000
22-04-1992 24-04-2002
24-10-1993 07-12-2005
–
28-06-2000
–
06-09-2002
25-11-1990 25-11-2001
17-04-1994 24-11-2002
–
11-01-2002
–
28-07-2001
12-03-1990 14-02-2000
25-04-1995 28-05-2005
13-05-1990 17/18-05-2000
26-08-1992 28-08-2002
11-07-1993
–
09-01-1970 12-12-1981 24-09-1993
28-06-1971
–
27-09-1992
21-05-1975 23-10-1985 22-05-1996
02-11-1971 20-10-1981 21-10-1990
16-10-2002
–
–
01-10-2001
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
581
TABLE A.4.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED UNDER-REPORTING
OF DEATHS BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD, 1980-2005
Country
Argentina
1980-1985
1985-1990
Period
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
Overall
4.0
7.6
7.0
3.7
–
Males
4.6
8.0
6.5
3.0
–
Females
3.3
7.1
7.7
4.5
–
Brazil
Overall
29.0
26.7
20.9
17.1
18.4
Males
27.6
27.8
20.7
17.2
17.8
Females
30.8
25.3
21.1
16.9
19.4
Chile
Overall
2.4
1.2
0.7
0.5
–0.2
Males
1.1
0.1
–1.8
–1.6
–1.8
Females
4.1
2.5
3.6
2.9
1.6
Colombia
Overall
–
30.2
31.2
28.2
28.7
Males
–
29.4
30.2
24.1
23.8
Females
–
31.2
32.7
33.6
34.8
Costa Rica Overall
20.8
14.5
8.5
3.1
6.1
Males
21.5
15.2
8.3
2.3
5.9
Females
19.9
13.6
8.7
4.1
6.5
Cuba
Overall
6.8
4.0
–0.9
–2.5
–
Males
7.1
4.0
–1.8
–2.9
–
Females
6.4
4.0
0.2
–2.1
–
Ecuador
Overall
22.9
21.3
18.0
14.6
17.2
Males
22.7
21.0
18.0
14.8
18.3
Females
23.1
21.7
17.9
14.4
15.7
Guatemala Overall
14.4
16.3
4.3
10.2
8.3
Males
11.0
17.0
6.6
11.2
9.0
Females
18.4
15.5
1.3
8.8
7.4
Mexico
Overall
11.4
10.1
7.4
1.4
–
Males
11.1
9.6
5.7
–0.8
–
Females
11.9
10.7
9.5
4.0
–
Nicaragua
Overall
–
–
51.6
45.9
–
Males
–
–
50.4
43.7
–
Females
–
–
53.1
48.6
–
Panama
Overall
30.0
26.1
22.8
19.5
18.9
Males
30.8
26.3
22.4
18.5
17.9
Females
28.9
25.7
23.4
20.9
20.2
Paraguay
Overall
49.0
50.7
46.5
38.0
35.2
Males
49.3
50.9
45.6
35.8
33.0
Females
48.6
50.5
47.5
40.4
37.8
Peru
Overall
48.2
48.7
50.2
44.9
–
Males
50.2
50.3
51.3
46.1
–
Females
45.8
46.7
48.9
43.4
–
Dominican Overall
43.5
40.6
51.2
47.9
41.9
Republic
Males
43.2
40.1
50.8
47.5
40.9
Females
43.9
41.2
51.8
48.4
43.4
El Salvador Overall
36.0
–
23.3
20.9
–
Males
36.5
–
19.9
14.9
–
Females
35.3
–
27.9
28.1
–
Uruguay
Overall
3.7
2.8
1.6
–1.2
1.1
Males
3.3
3.8
2.0
–2.7
–0.2
Females
4.1
1.4
1.2
0.4
2.6
Venezuela
Overall
12.2
11.4
7.3
11.0
14.4
Males
13.6
13.0
6.7
10.3
9.8
Females
10.2
9.2
8.2
12.0
20.7
Note: For the period 2000-2005. deaths were estimated on the basis of annnual means recorded for the
years for which data are available over this period. The rate of under-reporting is estimated by
comparing population projections with the census enumeration. A negative rate indicates underestimation of deaths in population projections due to the use of imprecise parameters for the
calculation.
Source: ECLAC. Calculations based on demographic estimates and projections and civil registration
statistics.
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582
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE A.5.– LIST OF SURVEYS CONDUCTED IN THE REGION OF LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THREE MAJOR INTERNATIONAL SURVEY PROGRAMMES
Country
WFS surveys
DHS surveys
CDC surveys
Bolivia
1989 1994 1998 2003
Brazil
1986 1991 1996
Colombia
1976
1986 1990 1995 2000 2005
Costa Rica
1976
1991 1993
Ecuador
1979-80
1987
1994 1999 2004
Guatemala
1978 1983 1987 1995 1998-99
2002
Guyana
1975
2005
Honduras
2005
1987-88 1991 1996 2001
Haiti
1977
1994-95 2000 2005
Jamaica
1975-76
Mexico
1976-77
1987
Nicaragua
1997-98 2001
1992-93
Panama
1975-76
1984
Paraguay
1979
1990
1995-96 1998 2004
Peru
1977-78
1986 1992 1996 2000 2004
Dominican Republic 1975 1980 1986 1991 1996 1999 2002
El Salvador
1978
1985
1988 1993 1998 2002-03 2004
Trinidad and Tobago 1977
1987
Venezuela
1977
Note: WHS: World Health Survey; DHS: Demographic and Health Surveys; CDC and others:
surveys supported by the Center for Disease Control in the United States,
http://encuestas.ccp.ucr.ac.cr/camerica/index.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/Surveys/AboutSurveys.htm
http://opr.princeton.edu/archive/wfs/
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
583
TABLE A.6.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED CRUDE BIRTH RATE,
BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD AND BY COUNTRY, 1950-2004
Sub-region
and country
Crude birth rate (per thousand)
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
46.3 46.2 45.2 44.7 43.5 38.6 33.9 31.5 29.3 26.3 23.7
Costa Rica
44.6 45.1 44.3 36.3 30.5 30.1 30.0 28.9 24.7 21.5 19.1
Guatemala
50.3 47.1 46.0 44.7 44.0 43.5 42.2 39.6 38.9 37.3 35.8
Honduras
52.8 52.3 50.8 49.8 46.9 44.9 42.3 39.4 37.1 33.5 30.0
Mexico
45.3 45.6 44.6 44.7 43.9 37.9 32.4 30.0 27.8 24.4 21.7
Nicaragua
54.2 52.3 50.4 48.3 47.1 45.7 44.1 39.8 36.1 32.5 29.1
Panama
39.9 40.5 40.4 39.0 35.6 31.0 28.6 27.3 25.1 24.1 22.7
El Salvador
48.1 48.8 47.5 45.6 42.7 40.2 33.6 30.7 29.6 27.7 25.3
Caribbean
37.5 36.6 38.6 35.4 31.4 27.5 27.1 26.2 23.1 21.3 20.2
Netherlands Antilles
41.6 35.5 29.1 22.6 20.4 21.5 20.2 19.3 19.0 16.1 15.0
Bahamas
38.6 36.0 37.8 32.4 29.3 27.5 27.2 23.6 23.6 21.1 19.4
Barbados
32.8 31.8 29.1 23.8 20.8 17.7 17.4 15.7 14.3 12.9 12.2
Belize
49.6 44.8 42.0 40.5 40.2 40.9 37.4 35.5 34.4 29.8 27.0
Cuba
29.7 27.2 35.1 32.2 26.7 17.2 16.3 17.5 15.1 13.3 12.5
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
39.0 38.7 36.8 32.7 28.9 19.6 20.2 19.2 17.9 17.6 16.1
Guyana
43.0 43.9 41.1 40.6 35.0 31.5 29.6 25.3 24.5 23.8 21.9
French Guiana
36.4 32.6 30.4 30.5 29.6 25.8 28.6 30.2 32.3 29.2 24.5
Haiti
43.5 42.6 41.9 39.7 38.6 41.0 42.9 41.6 33.6 31.8 30.4
Jamaica
34.8 39.2 39.6 37.3 32.5 28.8 26.9 23.8 24.1 21.9 20.5
Martinique
39.5 39.3 35.6 31.1 25.8 17.4 16.6 18.0 16.7 15.3 13.7
Puerto Rico
36.2 33.5 31.3 26.8 24.4 23.8 20.5 18.8 17.8 15.7 14.3
Dominican Republic
50.5 50.5 49.4 45.0 39.1 35.2 34.3 31.5 28.2 25.7 24.4
Saint Lucia
37.4 46.1 45.3 43.2 37.9 33.8 31.1 25.9 26.5 21.1 20.4
Suriname
43.8 44.4 44.4 40.0 34.6 29.5 30.5 25.4 22.4 23.9 21.7
Trinidad and Tobago
38.2 38.0 38.0 28.9 27.0 29.3 28.3 23.5 17.6 14.1 13.7
Andean countries
46.9 45.7 44.9 41.9 37.5 35.4 32.4 30.1 28.2 25.6 23.4
Bolivia
47.0 46.8 45.9 45.4 45.2 41.0 38.4 36.9 35.8 32.7 30.5
Colombia
47.4 45.4 44.2 41.0 34.7 32.6 29.9 27.8 27.0 24.5 22.3
Ecuador
45.6 44.7 44.1 42.8 40.6 38.2 34.8 30.9 27.5 25.6 23.3
Peru
47.1 46.8 46.3 43.6 40.5 38.0 33.7 31.2 29.2 26.2 23.3
Venezuela
46.4 44.8 45.0 40.1 35.1 34.2 32.0 30.3 26.9 24.5 22.9
Southern Cone
and Brazil
38.9 38.4 37.6 33.6 31.2 30.6 29.1 25.5 22.5 21.2 20.1
Argentina
25.4 24.3 23.2 22.6 23.4 25.7 23.1 22.2 21.3 19.7 18.0
Brazil
44.0 43.0 42.1 36.9 33.7 32.6 30.8 26.3 22.6 21.6 20.7
Chile
36.1 38.9 37.7 31.3 27.3 23.0 23.4 23.6 21.9 18.0 15.8
Paraguay
42.3 40.3 39.4 38.2 36.4 35.9 38.3 36.6 34.1 31.3 29.6
Uruguay
21.2 21.9 21.9 20.5 21.1 20.2 18.4 18.3 18.2 17.7 16.9
Overall
42.0 41.4 40.9 38.0 35.5 33.3 30.8 28.1 25.5 23.5 21.7
Source: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE A.7.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED CRUDE DEATH RATE,
BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD AND BY COUNTRY, 1950-2004
Sub-region
and country
Crude death rate (per thousand)
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
17.8 15.1 13.0 11.6 10.1 18.4 17.1 16.1 15.4 14.9 4.8
Costa Rica
13.5 11.9 10.2 18.2 16.8 15.7 14.7 14.4 14.2 14.0 4.0
Guatemala
22.3 20.2 18.0 15.8 13.5 12.1 10.8 19.3 18.0 16.9 6.1
Honduras
22.8 20.6 17.8 15.6 13.4 11.0 18.9 17.0 16.1 15.4 5.1
Mexico
17.0 14.1 12.2 11.0 19.6 17.7 16.4 15.6 15.1 14.6 4.6
Nicaragua
23.0 19.9 17.0 14.6 12.5 11.2 10.0 18.2 16.2 15.4 5.1
Panama
13.3 11.1 19.8 18.6 17.5 16.3 15.7 15.4 15.3 15.2 5.1
El Salvador
19.8 17.4 14.8 12.5 11.1 11.3 10.8 17.9 16.7 16.1 5.9
Caribbean
15.3 13.3 12.0 10.5 19.4 18.6 18.5 18.2 17.8 17.4 7.3
Netherlands Antilles
12.3 19.4 17.9 17.1 16.7 16.6 16.3 16.2 16.5 16.2 6.2
Bahamas
10.7 19.0 17.7 17.1 16.1 15.6 16.1 15.8 16.6 17.6 8.2
Barbados
13.2 10.3 19.2 18.5 18.7 18.7 18.0 18.7 19.1 18.3 7.8
Belize
12.6 11.0 19.6 18.3 17.3 16.5 15.7 15.2 15.1 14.9 5.3
Cuba
11.1 9.5 18.8 17.6 16.6 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 16.9 7.1
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
13.1 10.2 18.5 18.1 17.5 16.9 16.7 16.2 16.2 16.1 6.2
Guyana
17.7 15.9 13.7 11.6 10.3 19.2 19.0 18.6 18.2 18.4 9.0
French Guiana
15.6 14.1 12.0 19.0 17.8 17.2 16.1 15.2 14.5 13.9 3.7
Haiti
27.5 24.7 22.2 19.6 17.7 16.4 15.7 14.1 12.0 10.8 9.8
Jamaica
11.5 19.8 19.1 18.5 18.2 17.4 16.7 16.5 16.4 15.9 5.7
Martinique
12.9 19.9 18.5 17.5 17.2 16.8 16.3 16.1 16.4 16.4 6.9
Puerto Rico
18.7 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.5 17.1 17.9 17.9 8.3
Dominican Republic
20.3 17.4 14.7 12.1 19.8 18.4 17.7 16.8 16.1 15.6 5.3
Saint Lucia
14.7 14.5 11.8 18.4 18.0 17.1 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.2 5.9
Suriname
12.6 11.4 10.3 18.8 17.5 17.3 17.0 16.4 16.2 16.1 5.9
Trinidad and Tobago
11.2 19.4 17.6 17.2 17.4 17.1 17.1 16.8 16.4 16.5 7.3
Andean countries
17.9 15.5 13.6 12.0 10.3 18.9 17.6 16.8 16.4 15.9 5.7
Bolivia
24.4 23.0 21.5 20.2 19.0 16.0 13.3 11.3 10.0 18.9 8.2
Colombia
16.3 13.1 11.4 10.0 18.8 17.7 16.7 16.4 16.4 15.8 5.5
Ecuador
19.4 17.0 14.6 13.1 11.5 19.8 18.1 16.7 15.9 15.3 5.1
Peru
21.6 19.7 17.6 15.6 12.8 10.9 19.0 17.8 16.9 16.5 6.2
Venezuela
12.4 10.7 19.3 17.7 16.6 15.9 15.5 15.0 14.8 14.9 5.1
Southern Cone
and Brazil
13.8 12.7 11.7 10.6 19.7 18.9 18.2 17.5 17.0 16.7 6.6
Argentina
19.2 18.7 18.8 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.5 18.5 18.2 17.9 7.9
Brazil
15.4 13.9 12.5 11.0 19.9 19.1 18.3 17.4 16.8 16.5 6.4
Chile
13.6 13.3 12.2 10.3 18.8 17.4 16.4 15.9 15.5 15.4 5.2
Paraguay
11.1 10.8 10.0 19.4 18.5 17.9 17.3 16.7 16.0 15.4 5.1
Uruguay
10.5 10.1 19.6 19.6 10.0 10.1 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.4 9.3
Overall
15.6 13.9 12.4 11.1 19.9 18.8 17.9 17.2 16.7 16.2 6.1
Source: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
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585
TABLE A.8.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED NATURAL GROWTH RATE,
BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD AND BY COUNTRY, 1950-2004
Sub-region
and country
Natural growth rate (per thousand)
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
28.4 31.1 32.2 33.1 33.4 30.3 26.8 25.3 23.9 21.3 18.9
Costa Rica
31.1 33.2 34.1 28.1 23.7 24.5 25.2 24.5 20.6 17.4 15.1
Guatemala
28.0 26.9 28.0 28.9 30.5 31.4 31.4 30.3 30.9 30.5 29.7
Honduras
30.0 31.7 33.0 34.2 33.6 33.8 33.4 32.3 31.0 28.1 24.9
Mexico
28.3 31.5 32.5 33.7 34.3 30.2 26.0 24.4 22.7 19.8 17.2
Nicaragua
31.2 32.4 33.4 33.8 34.6 34.5 34.1 31.6 29.8 27.0 24.0
Panama
26.6 29.4 30.6 30.3 28.1 24.7 22.9 21.8 19.8 19.0 17.6
El Salvador
28.2 31.4 32.8 33.1 31.6 28.9 22.8 22.8 22.9 21.6 19.3
Caribbean
22.1 23.3 26.6 24.9 22.0 18.9 18.7 18.0 15.2 13.8 12.9
Netherlands Antilles
29.3 26.1 21.2 15.5 13.7 14.9 13.9 13.1 12.6 9.9 18.8
Bahamas
27.9 27.0 30.1 25.3 23.2 21.9 21.1 17.8 17.0 13.6 11.3
Barbados
19.6 21.5 19.9 15.3 12.0 19.1 9.4 17.0 15.1 14.6 14.4
Belize
37.0 33.8 32.4 32.2 32.9 34.4 31.7 30.3 29.3 24.9 21.8
Cuba
18.7 17.6 26.2 24.6 20.0 11.1 9.9 10.8 18.1 16.3 15.4
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
25.9 28.5 28.4 24.6 21.5 12.7 13.5 13.0 11.7 11.5 10.0
Guyana
25.3 28.0 27.4 29.0 24.7 22.3 20.6 16.8 16.3 15.3 12.9
French Guiana
20.8 18.5 18.4 21.5 21.7 18.5 22.5 24.9 27.8 25.3 20.8
Haiti
16.0 17.9 19.7 20.1 20.9 24.6 27.3 27.5 21.6 21.1 20.6
Jamaica
23.3 29.4 30.5 28.8 24.3 21.4 20.2 17.3 17.7 15.9 14.8
Martinique
26.6 29.4 27.1 23.6 18.6 10.6 10.2 11.9 10.3 18.9 16.9
Puerto Rico
27.5 26.4 24.3 20.2 17.8 17.4 14.0 11.6 19.9 17.9 16.0
Dominican Rep.
30.2 33.1 34.7 32.9 29.3 26.9 26.6 24.6 22.1 20.1 19.0
Saint Lucia
22.7 31.6 33.5 34.8 29.9 26.7 24.8 19.8 20.1 14.9 14.5
Suriname
31.2 33.0 34.1 31.2 27.1 22.2 23.4 19.0 16.3 17.8 15.8
Trinidad and Tobago
27.0 28.6 30.4 21.7 19.6 22.2 21.3 16.7 11.2 17.6 16.3
Andean countries
29.0 30.2 31.4 30.0 27.2 26.5 24.7 23.3 21.8 19.7 17.7
Bolivia
22.6 23.8 24.3 25.2 26.2 25.0 25.1 25.5 25.8 23.8 22.4
Colombia
31.2 32.3 32.8 31.0 26.0 24.9 23.2 21.4 20.5 18.7 16.8
Ecuador
26.2 27.8 29.4 29.7 29.1 28.4 26.7 24.2 21.7 20.3 18.3
Peru
25.5 27.1 28.7 28.0 27.8 27.1 24.7 23.5 22.3 19.7 17.1
Venezuela
34.0 34.1 35.7 32.4 28.5 28.3 26.5 25.3 22.1 19.6 17.8
Southern Cone
and Brazil
25.1 25.7 25.9 23.0 21.6 21.6 20.8 18.0 15.6 14.6 13.5
Argentina
16.2 15.6 14.4 13.4 14.4 16.7 14.6 13.7 13.1 11.8 10.1
Brazil
28.6 29.1 29.5 25.9 23.8 23.5 22.5 18.9 15.8 15.1 14.2
Chile
22.5 25.6 25.5 21.0 18.5 15.6 17.0 17.7 16.3 12.7 10.6
Paraguay
31.2 29.5 29.5 28.9 27.9 28.0 31.0 29.9 28.1 25.9 24.5
Uruguay
10.7 11.9 12.4 10.9 11.2 10.1 18.5 18.3 18.4 18.2 17.5
Overall
26.4 27.5 28.5 26.9 25.6 24.5 22.9 20.9 18.8 17.3 15.6
Source: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE A.9.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED TOTAL GROWTH RATE,
BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD AND BY COUNTRY, 1950-2004
Sub-region
and country
Total growth rate (per thousand)
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
27.3 30.2 30.9 31.4 30.7 27.3 22.6 21.0 20.0 17.5 15.6
Costa Rica
31.2 33.3 34.2 28.1 23.8 27.0 27.8 26.3 24.4 24.4 19.3
Guatemala
28.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 24.5 24.7 23.1 23.2 23.0 24.7
Honduras
30.9 32.5 33.9 28.8 30.3 33.6 31.9 30.6 29.5 27.5 24.9
Mexico
26.9 30.4 31.0 31.9 31.6 27.6 22.4 20.4 18.6 15.7 13.3
Nicaragua
30.1 31.2 32.1 32.0 32.6 31.3 27.9 23.2 24.6 20.4 20.2
Panama
25.5 28.4 29.1 29.1 26.9 24.7 22.0 20.6 20.5 19.8 18.2
El Salvador
26.2 29.6 31.1 35.6 27.1 21.5 17.8 13.8 20.7 20.4 18.2
Caribbean
18.1 19.1 21.0 18.5 17.1 14.5 15.3 14.0 11.5 10.7 10.0
Netherlands Antilles
18.6 18.6 16.7 16.7 18.8 18.8 19.2 6.4 17.5 9.9 18.3
Bahamas
22.7 42.6 49.6 37.9 21.3 21.3 21.1 17.9 20.8 13.6 11.3
Barbados
14.9 12.9 13.9 13.0 15.6 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.2 13.7 13.5
Belize
29.8 29.7 28.2 27.6 17.3 14.5 25.2 26.0 27.8 23.6 20.6
Cuba
18.5 16.7 20.7 18.4 17.3 18.3 18.1 19.6 16.2 14.5 12.6
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
23.4 30.7 17.5 12.7 15.2 –1.0 16.5 19.2 19.2 19.1 18.4
Guyana
27.8 31.4 25.3 19.0 16.8 17.2 –1.9 –6.1 12.8 14.7 12.4
French Guiana
23.0 25.5 41.2 37.1 30.6 39.8 50.8 55.8 34.9 34.1 25.3
Haiti
14.6 16.2 17.1 17.4 17.0 20.6 23.5 24.7 18.7 18.4 18.2
Jamaica
18.9 11.0 15.5 12.0 14.8 11.6 14.8 16.2 18.5 18.6 19.2
Martinique
20.4 27.3 20.0 18.9 11.8 –1.4 18.6 11.3 17.1 16.5 15.6
Puerto Rico
12.9 19.5 18.1 10.1 15.8 16.8 11.1 8.7 18.6 17.1 15.2
Dominican Republic
30.3 33.2 32.7 30.2 26.8 24.5 24.0 19.2 16.1 15.5 15.8
Saint Lucia
19.2 17.6 13.8 15.7 10.5 14.5 13.9 16.8 12.8 17.9 17.8
Suriname
30.2 29.7 27.2 22.8 –4.2 –5.2 15.4 19.1 13.7 17.6 18.0
Trinidad and Tobago
25.1 31.3 12.3 16.0 18.3 13.4 17.1 16.2 17.4 14.4 13.4
Andean countries
29.0 29.9 30.3 28.9 27.3 26.6 23.8 22.3 20.2 18.5 16.8
Bolivia
20.5 21.8 22.4 23.3 24.4 23.6 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.8 22.4
Colombia
29.0 29.8 30.1 28.2 23.6 22.8 21.4 19.9 19.5 18.7 16.8
Ecuador
26.2 27.8 29.5 29.8 29.2 28.4 26.7 24.3 20.8 15.2 14.4
Peru
25.5 27.1 28.8 28.0 27.8 26.7 23.8 21.7 18.3 16.9 14.9
Venezuela
40.3 39.2 36.4 32.9 34.4 34.0 27.5 26.1 22.1 19.6 17.8
Southern Cone
and Brazil
27.0 25.9 26.0 23.0 21.7 21.3 20.7 18.1 15.6 14.5 13.5
Argentina
19.7 17.1 15.6 14.5 16.7 15.1 15.2 14.5 13.1 11.2 9.6
Brazil
30.6 29.1 29.6 25.9 23.8 23.5 22.5 18.9 15.8 15.1 14.2
Chile
21.3 24.4 24.7 20.3 16.9 14.1 16.0 17.0 17.7 13.5 11.0
Paraguay
21.7 21.0 24.4 24.3 24.7 31.6 29.5 31.2 27.0 25.9 24.6
Uruguay
11.6 13.5 11.9 18.4 11.4 15.9 16.4 16.3 17.1 17.3 17.0
Overall
27.0 27.3 27.8 26.1 24.9 23.6 21.6 19.7 17.6 16.0 14.6
Source: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
Mesoamerica
Costa Rica
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
El Salvador
Caribbean
Netherlands Antilles
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Cuba
Dominica
Grenada
Guadeloupe
Guyana
French Guiana
Haiti
Jamaica
Martinique
Puerto Rico
Dominican Republic
Saint Lucia
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
Others (a)
Sub-region and country
42,680
1,129
3,619
1,610
31,737
1,383
977
2,224
19,465
123
89
227
80
6,416
55
85
236
486
29
3,508
1,542
246
2,250
2,737
83
250
721
303
17,771
112
79
211
69
5,850
51
76
210
423
25
3,261
1,403
222
2,218
2,353
79
215
636
278
1955
37,230
966
3,146
1,380
27,737
1,190
860
1,951
1950
21,407
135
110
231
93
6,976
60
89
275
569
32
3,804
1,629
282
2,360
3,231
86
290
843
313
49,630
1,334
4,140
1,894
36,940
1,617
1,126
2,578
1960
23,771
146
140
235
107
7,738
65
91
300
645
40
4,143
1,760
311
2,583
3,805
92
332
896
339
57,917
1,582
4,736
2,245
43,141
1,898
1,303
3,012
1965
26,083
159
170
239
123
8,483
71
93
320
709
48
4,520
1,869
325
2,716
4,425
100
372
971
370
67,776
1,821
5,419
2,592
50,611
2,228
1,506
3,598
1970
28,401
166
189
246
134
9,251
72
91
329
734
56
4,920
2,013
328
2,939
5,059
105
364
1,012
393
79,023
2,051
6,204
3,017
59,287
2,622
1,723
4,120
1975
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
30,542
174
210
249
144
9,645
74
89
327
761
68
5,454
2,133
326
3,197
5,719
113
355
1,082
423
32,949
182
234
253
163
10,041
73
87
355
754
88
6,134
2,297
341
3,378
6,447
121
384
1,178
440
35,320
188
255
257
186
10,537
72
85
391
731
116
6,942
2,369
360
3,528
7,097
131
402
1,215
458
37,426
205
283
263
213
10,867
75
83
409
741
139
7,622
2,472
373
3,683
7,690
140
409
1,261
497
39,485
215
303
267
240
11,113
78
81
428
759
164
8,357
2,580
386
3,816
8,312
146
425
1,289
527
41,521
224
321
272
266
11,257
79
80
446
768
187
9,151
2,701
397
3,915
8,993
152
442
1,311
559
90,578 101,406 112,639 124,471 135,870 146,897
2,347
2,697
3,076
3,475
3,925
4,322
7,013
7,935
8,908 10,004 11,225 12,700
3,569
4,186
4,879
5,654
6,485
7,347
68,046 76,117 84,296 92,523 100,052 106,943
3,067
3,526
3,960
4,477
4,957
5,483
1,949
2,176
2,411
2,670
2,948
3,228
4,586
4,769
5,110
5,669
6,276
6,874
1980
TABLE A.10.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: TOTAL MID-YEAR POPULATION BY COUNTRY, 1950-2005 (THOUSANDS)
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 587 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
587
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Andean countries
31,396 36,296 42,157 49,044 56,656 64,943 74,179 83,555 93,398 103,300 113,296 123,202
Bolivia
2,714
3,006
3,351
3,748
4,212
4,759
5,355
5,964
6,669
7,482
8,428
9,427
Colombia
12,568 14,527 16,857 19,591 22,561 25,381 28,447 31,659 34,970 38,542 42,321 46,039
Ecuador
3,387
3,862
4,439
5,144
5,970
6,907
7,961
9,099 10,272 11,396 12,297 13,211
Peru
7,632
8,672
9,931 11,467 13,193 15,161 17,324 19,516 21,753 23,837 25,939 27,947
Venezuela
5,094
6,230
7,579
9,094 10,721 12,734 15,091 17,318 19,735 22,043 24,311 26,577
Southern Cone and Brazil
80,934 92,615 105,396 120,055 134,712 150,117 166,967 185,203 202,774 219,240 235,734 252,130
Argentina
17,150 18,928 20,616 22,283 23,962 26,049 28,094 30,305 32,581 34,779 36,784 38,592
Brazil
53,975 62,893 72,757 84,351 96,021 108,167 121,672 136,178 149,690 162,019 174,719 187,601
Chile
6,082
6,764
7,643
8,647
9,570 10,413 11,174 12,102 13,179 14,395 15,398 16,267
Paraguay
1,488
1,659
1,842
2,081
2,350
2,659
3,114
3,609
4,219
4,828
5,496
6,215
Uruguay
2,239
2,372
2,538
2,693
2,808
2,829
2,914
3,009
3,106
3,218
3,337
3,455
Overall
167,330 191,055 218,590 250,787 285,227 322,484 362,265 403,113 444,131 484,437 524,385 563,750
(a) Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Falkland Islands, Turks and Caicos Islands, British Virgin Islands and US Virgin Islands,
Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and the Panama Canal Zone (between 1970 and 1975).
Source: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United
Nations (2005).
Sub-region and country
TABLE A.10.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: TOTAL MID-YEAR POPULATION BY COUNTRY, 1950-2005 (THOUSANDS)
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 588 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
588
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
589
TABLE A.11.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED TOTAL FERTILITY RATE,
BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD AND BY COUNTRY, 1950-2004
Sub-region
and country
Mean number of children per woman
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
6.87 6.93 6.83 6.75 6.47 5.48 4.54 3.97 3.51 3.03 2.71
Costa Rica
6.72 7.11 7.22 5.80 4.35 3.78 3.53 3.37 2.95 2.58 2.28
Guatemala
7.00 6.60 6.50 6.30 6.20 6.20 6.10 5.70 5.45 5.00 4.60
Honduras
7.50 7.50 7.42 7.42 7.05 6.60 6.00 5.37 4.92 4.30 3.72
Mexico
6.87 6.96 6.82 6.82 6.60 5.40 4.30 3.70 3.20 2.70 2.40
Nicaragua
7.33 7.33 7.33 7.10 6.79 6.40 6.00 5.20 4.60 3.90 3.30
Panama
5.68 5.89 5.92 5.62 4.94 4.05 3.52 3.20 2.87 2.79 2.70
El Salvador
6.46 6.81 6.85 6.62 6.10 5.60 4.50 3.90 3.52 3.17 2.88
Caribbean
5.26 5.21 5.50 5.06 4.41 3.66 3.46 3.20 2.79 2.61 2.50
Netherlands Antilles
5.65 5.15 4.40 3.30 2.65 2.45 2.36 2.30 2.28 2.10 2.05
Bahamas
4.05 4.31 4.50 3.79 3.44 3.22 3.16 2.62 2.60 2.40 2.29
Barbados
4.67 4.67 4.26 3.45 2.74 2.19 1.92 1.75 1.60 1.50 1.50
Belize
6.65 6.55 6.45 6.35 6.25 6.20 5.40 4.70 4.35 3.60 3.15
Cuba
4.10 3.68 4.67 4.29 3.55 2.13 1.83 1.83 1.60 1.55 1.61
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
5.61 5.61 5.61 5.22 4.49 3.06 2.55 2.45 2.10 2.10 2.10
Guyana
6.68 6.77 6.15 6.11 4.90 3.94 3.26 2.70 2.55 2.45 2.31
French Guiana
5.00 4.92 5.02 5.00 4.18 3.30 3.58 3.73 4.05 3.83 3.33
Haiti
6.30 6.30 6.30 6.00 5.76 5.96 6.21 5.94 4.79 4.38 3.98
Jamaica
4.22 5.08 5.64 5.78 5.00 4.00 3.55 2.87 2.76 2.50 2.36
Martinique
5.71 5.71 5.45 5.00 4.08 2.65 2.14 2.14 1.94 1.90 1.90
Puerto Rico
4.97 4.82 4.37 3.41 2.99 2.76 2.46 2.26 2.18 1.99 1.89
Dominican Republic
7.40 7.40 7.32 6.68 5.63 4.70 4.24 3.61 3.16 2.88 2.73
Saint Lucia
6.00 6.94 6.79 6.48 5.69 5.20 4.20 3.65 3.15 2.40 2.27
Suriname
6.56 6.56 6.56 5.95 5.29 4.20 3.70 2.92 2.45 2.62 2.45
Trinidad and Tobago
5.30 5.30 4.99 3.79 3.45 3.40 3.22 2.80 2.10 1.65 1.55
Andean countries
6.72 6.72 6.75 6.28 5.44 4.83 4.19 3.71 3.39 3.07 2.82
Bolivia
6.75 6.75 6.63 6.56 6.50 5.80 5.30 5.00 4.80 4.32 3.96
Colombia
6.76 6.76 6.76 6.18 5.00 4.34 3.69 3.17 3.01 2.80 2.62
Ecuador
6.70 6.70 6.70 6.50 6.00 5.40 4.70 4.00 3.40 3.10 2.82
Peru
6.85 6.85 6.85 6.56 6.00 5.38 4.65 4.10 3.70 3.20 2.86
Venezuela
6.46 6.46 6.66 5.90 4.94 4.47 3.96 3.65 3.25 2.94 2.72
Southern Cone
and Brazil
5.35 5.42 5.45 4.85 4.35 4.04 3.63 3.09 2.68 2.50 2.36
Argentina
3.15 3.13 3.09 3.05 3.15 3.44 3.15 3.05 2.90 2.63 2.35
Brazil
6.15 6.15 6.15 5.38 4.72 4.31 3.80 3.10 2.60 2.45 2.35
Chile
4.95 5.49 5.44 4.44 3.63 2.80 2.67 2.65 2.55 2.21 2.00
Paraguay
6.50 6.50 6.55 6.30 5.65 5.15 5.25 4.90 4.55 4.17 3.87
Uruguay
2.73 2.83 2.90 2.80 3.00 2.89 2.57 2.53 2.49 2.40 2.30
Overall
5.89 5.94 5.97 5.55 5.05 4.50 3.93 3.43 3.03 2.75 2.55
Source: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 590 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
590
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE A.12.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED FERTILITY RATE
BY AGE GROUP AND MEAN AGE AT CHILDBEARING BY COUNTRY,
1980-1984 AND 2000-2004
1980-1984
Fertility rate by age group (per thousand)
Sub-region
and country
Mesoamerica
Costa Rica
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
El Salvador
Caribbean
Netherlands Antilles
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Cuba
Dominica
Grenada
Guadeloupe
Guyana
French Guiana
Haiti
Jamaica
Martinique
Puerto Rico
Dominican Republic
Saint Lucia
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
Andean countries
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Venezuela
Southern Cone
and Brazil
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Paraguay
Uruguay
Mean age at
childbearing
(years)
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
105.3
97.9
138.5
140.0
96.2
158.0
107.7
129.6
231.9
193.2
286.5
281.5
221.9
308.9
202.2
236.3
225.6
175.3
285.5
269.5
218.6
288.5
172.9
207.4
173.4
128.6
241.9
231.7
165.5
212.3
118.4
157.2
115.0
78.5
172.1
167.3
107.8
150.4
68.3
106.5
46.8
28.4
79.1
91.8
41.0
65.9
27.2
51.9
10.1
3.5
16.4
18.1
9.0
16.1
6.3
11.1
28.3
27.5
28.83
29.0
28.2
28.1
27.1
27.9
–
–
–
–
84.8
–
–
–
–
–
90.0
–
–
–
118.7
–
–
–
81.3
89.0
68.3
99.9
74.1
101.0
–
–
–
–
120.0
–
–
–
–
–
212.0
–
–
–
214.3
–
–
–
200.6
238.5
181.8
223.1
204.4
206.0
–
–
–
–
90.8
–
–
–
–
–
290.0
–
–
–
200.0
–
–
–
207.5
251.2
191.3
223.4
224.6
194.3
–
–
–
–
48.3
–
–
–
–
–
285.0
–
–
–
156.4
–
–
–
163.0
214.1
139.1
182.0
191.3
147.1
–
–
–
–
17.8
–
–
–
–
–
222.0
–
–
–
106.9
–
–
–
112.3
161.1
88.0
129.2
145.8
93.2
–
–
–
–
3.3
–
–
–
–
–
133.0
–
–
–
46.3
–
–
–
57.6
80.6
51.0
65.0
73.1
40.5
–
–
–
–
1.2
–
–
–
–
–
10.0
–
–
–
5.5
–
–
–
16.2
25.4
17.5
17.5
16.7
9.3
–
–
–
–
24.9
–
–
–
–
–
30.6
–
–
–
28.0
–
–
–
29.1
29.7
29.0
29.0
29.7
28.0
74.3
74.2
75.0
64.3
93.6
62.6
186.6
163.8
194.5
151.0
242.8
139.5
187.6
171.1
194.7
145.6
241.3
140.1
142.8
124.4
150.1
99.0
208.4
98.6
89.4
69.6
96.1
53.8
155.1
54.4
37.5
22.8
41.7
18.2
86.1
17.4
7.1
4.1
7.9
2.3
22.7
1.4
28.4
27.8
28.5
27.4
29.6
27.5
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 591 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
591
TABLE A.12. (CONT'D) – LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED FERTILITY
RATE BY AGE GROUP AND MEAN AGE AT CHILDBEARING BY COUNTRY,
1980-1984 AND 2000-2004
2000-2004
Fertility rate by age group (per thousand)
Sub-region
and country
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
Mean age at
childbearing
(years)
Mesoamerica
79.0 146.3 140.9
98.2
57.2
16.9
3.5
Costa Rica
77.5 126.3 114.3
82.0
42.9
12.1
1.2
Guatemala
115.4 238.1 218.2 174.0 115.9
48.8
9.6
Honduras
102.5 200.2 167.5 131.8
88.1
45.6
8.9
Mexico
70.2 129.4 131.0
87.6
48.9
10.7
2.3
Nicaragua
124.8 195.6 151.7 105.5
57.3
20.9
4.1
Panama
89.0 155.7 138.9
97.3
45.6
12.1
1.4
El Salvador
87.1 157.3 136.9
95.9
63.3
28.5
7.6
Caribbean
65.1 133.2 129.6
93.7
56.0
20.4
4.0
Netherlands Antilles
28.6
94.4 116.5 109.1
57.9
14.6
3.9
Bahamas
60.8 121.1 119.7
94.8
49.7
12.0
2.3
Barbados
42.6
84.9
82.8
57.9
25.5
6.0
0.3
Belize
87.0 183.7 161.4 119.4
63.1
22.6
2.1
Cuba
49.7
97.5
91.1
56.6
23.0
3.9
0.3
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
18.8
77.3 109.7 118.9
66.8
18.0
2.4
Guyana
66.7 127.5 131.2
82.5
39.6
9.9
1.4
French Guiana
92.8 184.8 172.6 128.2
69.6
28.0
6.1
Haiti
64.1 150.0 194.3 171.1 137.3
64.3
15.6
Jamaica
82.1 142.2 118.9
81.2
45.6
16.2
2.4
Martinique
30.8
89.8 119.8
94.1
48.2
11.9
0.8
Puerto Rico
61.6 101.4 103.3
77.7
33.3
6.3
0.3
Dominican Republic
93.2 189.2 138.1
78.4
36.6
9.4
0.5
Saint Lucia
62.6 113.5 111.7
74.0
49.1
23.9
13.2
Suriname
44.9 127.2 170.3 112.7
51.5
13.8
0.0
Trinidad and Tobago
37.3
89.2
84.6
67.6
33.5
9.1
0.8
Andean countries
77.4 153.5 137.7 100.1
63.4
26.7
5.4
Bolivia
84.4 194.1 187.6 154.0 109.3
50.4
11.9
Colombia
79.5 152.8 129.3
87.1
51.7
20.5
3.7
Ecuador
84.5 150.3 133.1
99.6
62.2
27.8
6.0
Peru
54.6 141.7 143.0 112.2
78.6
35.7
7.0
Venezuela
92.1 154.5 131.7
91.3
52.0
18.9
4.1
Southern Cone
and Brazil
82.5 131.3 117.1
79.6
44.1
14.8
2.5
Argentina
60.7 112.9 119.4 101.6
56.8
17.2
1.4
Brazil
89.6 136.6 115.6
71.9
39.1
13.5
2.7
Chile
61.6
93.2 100.4
82.9
47.8
13.3
0.8
Paraguay
68.3 192.0 188.7 160.8 108.4
47.9
8.5
Uruguay
69.6 123.1 126.3
88.7
41.4
11.0
0.5
Source: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm).
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
27.2
26.7
28.2
28.0
27.0
26.4
26.5
27.6
27.7
29.1
27.5
26.8
27.2
26.2
–
–
29.9
26.8
27.5
30.1
26.7
28.5
26.7
25.7
28.1
27.9
27.5
27.7
28.8
27.1
27.6
28.8
26.8
26.7
27.9
26.3
27.6
29.0
26.9
Data for
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 592 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
592
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE A.13.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED ADOLESCENT
FERTILITY RATE, BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD AND BY COUNTRY, 1950-2004
Sub-region
and country
Fertility rate at age 15-19 (per thousand)
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
Costa Rica
119.2 120.8 125.0 107.8 104.5 105.5 97.9 100.2 93.5 86.9 77.5
Guatemala
171.7 157.7 153.2 142.9 137.5 140.1 138.5 131.4 127.6 121.1 115.4
Honduras
160.5 160.5 158.7 158.8 150.8 146.2 140.0 133.5 126.5 114.6 102.5
Mexico
117.3 118.8 118.2 118.2 117.7 109.4 96.2 87.4 78.6 78.7 70.2
Nicaragua
168.0 168.0 168.0 163.7 157.9 150.2 158.0 166.5 160.1 143.7 124.8
Panama
145.4 146.7 144.8 143.2 134.6 118.7 107.7 101.4 90.9 93.2 89.0
El Salvador
141.8 146.8 165.4 160.0 150.6 141.2 129.6 118.8 110.6 95.2 87.1
Caribbean
Netherlands Antilles
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
35.1 28.6
Bahamas
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
63.4 60.8
Barbados
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
43.2 42.6
Belize
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
– 102.1 87.0
Cuba
66.8 77.2 119.7 130.1 140.7 110.2 84.8 84.8 67.2 65.4 49.7
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
19.2 18.8
Guyana
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
76.7 66.7
French Guiana
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
– 103.4 92.8
Haiti
76.8 76.8 76.8 73.2 65.7 67.0 90.0 91.0 76.0 70.1 64.1
Jamaica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
93.5 82.1
Martinique
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
29.7 30.8
Puerto Rico
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
76.0 61.6
Dominican Republic 165.9 165.9 164.2 150.1 116.7 110.3 118.7 110.3 102.6 96.9 93.2
Saint Lucia
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
67.0 62.6
Suriname
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
50.9 44.9
Trinidad and Tobago
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
41.6 37.3
Andean countries
Bolivia
99.5 99.5 97.2 95.9 94.7 87.3 89.0 89.4 89.3 86.9 84.4
Colombia
128.0 128.0 128.0 118.6 89.9 77.0 68.3 81.6 99.6 87.6 79.5
Ecuador
135.6 135.6 135.6 130.9 120.0 111.5 99.9 87.6 83.8 85.4 84.5
Peru
129.9 129.9 129.9 102.3 86.3 92.5 74.1 72.0 70.7 82.6 54.6
Venezuela
126.8 126.8 133.0 121.9 102.6 102.3 101.0 103.7 97.8 94.1 92.1
Southern Cone
and Brazil
Argentina
62.4 61.8 61.1 60.4 68.3 84.0 74.2 73.4 73.2 69.8 60.7
Brazil
82.5 82.5 82.5 74.6 68.3 65.3 75.0 80.4 83.8 89.7 89.6
Chile
80.0 87.7 87.9 82.8 84.1 71.2 64.3 64.0 68.1 66.9 61.6
Paraguay
97.0 97.0 98.9 98.3 95.8 92.9 93.6 91.2 86.7 76.0 68.3
Uruguay
59.5 61.7 63.2 61.0 65.4 71.0 62.6 66.4 70.5 70.1 69.6
Source: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm).
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 593 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
593
TABLE A.14.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: VARIATIONS IN TOTAL FERTILITY
RATE BY MOTHER'S PLACE OF RESIDENCE AND EDUCATIONAL LEVEL (15 COUNTRIES)
Place of residence
Country
Belize
Survey
date
Urban Rural
Level of education
No ed./
No
SeconRural/
Secon- Overall
educa- Primary dary
Urban
dary or
tion
or above
above
1991
3.9
5.8
1.5
6.0
4.5
3.2
1.9
4.5
1999
3.1
4.2
1.4
5.1
3.6
2.7
1.9
3.7
Bolivia
1989
4.0
6.6
1.7
6.4
6.0
3.3
1.9
5.0
1994
3.8
6.3
1.7
6.5
6.1
3.2
2.0
4.8
1998
3.3
6.4
1.9
7.1
5.7
2.9
2.4
4.2
2003
3.1
5.5
1.8
6.8
4.9
2.5
2.7
3.8
Brazil
1986 (a)
2.8
5.1
1.8
6.2
3.6
2.0
3.1
3.4
1991 (b)
2.8
5.2
1.9
5.8
3.6
2.0
2.9
3.7
1996
2.3
3.5
1.5
4.9
3.3
2.1
2.3
2.5
Colombia
1986
2.6
4.7
1.8
5.2
3.9
2.4
2.2
3.2
1990
2.5
3.6
1.4
4.8
3.5
2.3
2.1
2.8
1995
2.5
4.3
1.7
5.0
3.8
2.5
2.0
3.0
2000
2.3
3.8
1.7
4.0
3.6
2.2
1.8
2.6
2005
2.1
3.4
1.6
4.5
3.4
2.1
2.1
2.4
Ecuador
1987
3.5
5.3
1.5
6.4
5.1
2.9
2.2
4.2
1994 (c)
3.0
4.6
1.6
6.2
4.0
2.7
2.3
3.6
1999 (d)
2.8
4.3
1.5
5.6
4.1
2.6
2.1
3.4
2001
–
–
–
5.6
4.2
2.4
2.3
3.3
2004
2.9
3.9
1.3
5.7
4.2
2.7
2.1
3.3
El Salvador 1985
3.3
5.4
1.6
5.7
4.2
2.4
2.4
4.2
1993
3.1
5.0
1.6
5.4
3.9
2.3
2.3
3.9
1998 (e)
2.8
4.6
1.6
5.0
3.8
2.4
2.1
3.6
2002/03
2.4
3.8
1.6
4.5
3.8
2.4
1.9
3.0
Guatemala 1987 (f)
4.0
6.4
1.6
6.8
5.1
2.7
2.5
5.5
1995
3.8
6.1
1.6
7.1
5.1
2.5
2.8
5.1
1998/99
4.1
5.8
1.4
6.8
5.2
2.9
2.3
5.0
2002
3.4
5.2
1.5
6.4
4.7
2.1
3.0
4.4
Haiti
1994/95
3.3
5.9
1.8
6.1
4.8
2.5
2.4
4.8
2000
3.4
5.8
1.7
6.1
5.3
2.7
2.3
4.7
Honduras
1996(g)
–
6.3
–
7.1
–
2.9
2.5
4.9
2001
–
5.6
–
6.5
–
2.7
2.4
4.4
Mexico
1987
3.3
6.0
6.1
4.8
2.5
–
4.0
Nicaragua
1992/93 (h) 3.4
6.4
1.9
6.9
3.9
2.4
2.9
2.4
1997/98
2.9
5.0
1.7
5.7
4.2
2.5
2.3
3.6
2001
2.6
4.4
1.7
5.2
3.6
2.3
2.3
3.2
Paraguay
1990
3.6
6.1
1.7
6.5
5.5
3.2
2.0
4.7
1995/96 (i) 3.3
5.7
1.7
6.9
4.7
2.4
2.8
4.4
1998 (j)
3.2
5.6
1.8
6.2
5.0
2.3
2.7
4.3
2004 (k)
2.5
3.7
1.5
…
3.8
2.1
…
2.9
Peru
1986
3.1
6.3
2.0
6.6
5.0
2.9
2.3
4.1
1992
2.8
6.2
2.2
7.0
5.1
2.6
2.7
3.5
1996
2.8
5.6
2.0
6.9
5.0
2.6
2.7
3.5
2000
2.2
4.3
2.0
5.1
4.1
2.2
2.3
2.8
Dominican 1986
3.1
4.8
1.5
5.2
4.2
2.7
1.9
3.7
Republic
1991
2.8
4.4
1.6
5.2
3.8
2.8
1.9
3.3
1996
2.8
4.0
1.4
5.0
3.7
2.5
2.0
3.2
1999
2.5
3.0
1.2
2.2
3.5
2.1
1.0
2.7
2002
2.8
3.3
1.2
4.5
3.6
2.5
1.8
3.0
Trinidad
and Tobago 1987
3.0
3.1
1.0
3.6
3.5
2.9
1.2
3.1
(a) Women aged 15 to 44; (b) Nordeste only; (c) 1989-1994; (d) March 1994 to February 1999;
(e) March 1993 to February 1998, women aged 15-44; (f) September 1995 to August 1998; (g) 19931995; (h) 1987-1992; (i) 1990-1995; (j) Women aged 15 to 44; (k) It is impossible to estimate the
TFR for women with no education. The survey categories were as follows: 0-5 years of schooling
(TFR=4.2), and 6 years of schooling (TFR=3.8).
Source: ORC Macro, 2005. http://www.measuredhs.com.
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TABLE A.15.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CHANGES IN INTERMEDIATE
FERTILITY VARIABLES IN THE 1980S, 1990S AND 2000S (14 COUNTRIES)
Contraceptive
prevalence (%)
Country
Bolivia
Year
of survey
Post-partum infertility
(mean duration in months)
Mean
PostTradi% of
Modern
age at Amenor- Abstipartum
tional women
methods
first birth rhea
nence insuscepmethods in union
(25-49)
tibility
Nuptiality
1989
12.2
17.1
69.3
20.3
10.7
2.7
11.4
1994
17.8
23.7
69.7
20.6
10.1
2.5
11.4
1998
25.2
22.3
66.6
20.9
9.6
2.7
11.0
2003
34.9
23.2
68.0
20.6
9.5
2.7
11.0
Brazil
1986 (a)
56.5
9.0
65.6
21.2
2.5
1.9
3.2
1996
70.3
6.1
69.4
21.1
3.0
2.2
4.3
Colombia
1990
54.6
10.9
63.5
21.0
3.6
2.3
5.0
1995
59.3
11.1
67.8
21.4
4.3
2.2
5.6
2000
64.0
12.3
66.0
21.5
4.3
2.4
5.5
2005
68.5
12.1
67.1
21.7
4.4
2.4
5.8
Costa Rica
1986
58.0
11.0
–
–
–
–
–
1992
65.0
10.0
–
–
–
–
–
1999
71.0
9.0
–
–
–
–
–
Ecuador
1987
35.8
8.5
69.0
20.1
6.1
2.0
8.1
1994 (b)
45.7
11.1
65.7
20.7
7.5
2.7
8.3
1999 (c)
50.0
15.8
68.0
21.1
8.0
2.6
8.4
2004
58.7
14.0
67.9
20.6
–
–
–
El Salvador 1985
44.3
3.0
75.1
19.0
–
2.9
7.7
1993
48.4
5.0
71.7
19.4
6.8
2.7
7.5
1998 (d)
54.1
5.7
70.4
19.5
7.4
3.2
8.3
2002/03
61.8
5.5
69.2
19.8
7.9
3.4
9.0
Guatemala
1987 (e)
19.0
4.2
73.2
18.6
11.9
3.0
13.2
1995
26.9
4.5
72.0
19.0
10.5
2.4
11.6
1998/99
30.9
7.3
73.8
19.3
9.5
2.3
10.0
2002
34.4
8.8
68.4
19.3
9.3
2.0
9.9
Haiti
1994/95
13.2
4.8
68.2
20.8
11.1
3.4
12.5
2000
22.3
5.8
68.6
20.5
6.2
2.9
9.4
Honduras
1987
33.0
7.6
–
–
–
–
–
1996 (f)
39.7
10.3
72.4
18.9
8.7
3.3
9.3
2001
50.8
11.0
73.5
19.0
8.4
3.1
9.1
Mexico
1987
44.6
8.1
67.4
19.9
3.4
2.2
4.3
1997
56.0
11.6
–
–
–
–
–
Nicaragua
1992/93 (g)
44.9
3.7
78.1
18.6
6.9
6.4
10.5
1997/98
57.4
2.5
76.4
18.3
5.0
2.5
6.4
2001
66.1
2.5
74.2
18.2
5.5
2.5
7.1
Paraguay
1990
35.2
8.9
67.1
20.9
4.5
2.1
5.3
1995/96 (h)
41.3
9.5
69.9
21.0
5.5
1.8
5.8
1998 (i)
47.7
9.7
66.9
–
–
–
–
2004
60.5
12.3
61.1
21.2
5.9
1.9
0.2
Peru
1992
32.8
24.6
61.9
21.1
8.3
2.2
9.5
1996
41.3
21.3
65.8
20.9
8.4
2.3
9.6
2000
50.4
17.5
64.2
21.4
9.0
2.5
9.9
2004
46.7
23.8
63.0
21.9
8.8
2.8
9.2
Dominican
1991
51.7
4.2
70.6
19.0
3.5
2.2
4.2
Republic
1996
59.2
4.0
74.4
19.3
3.5
2.3
4.3
1999
64.1
5.0
74.2
19.3
3.5
2.4
3.9
2002
65.8
3.1
77.0
19.0
3.2
2.0
4.0
(a) Women aged 15 to 44; (b) 1989-1994; (c) March 1994 to February 1999; (d) March 1993 to
February 1998, women aged 15-44; (e) Women aged 15 to 44; (f) 1993-1995; (g) 1987-1992;
(h) 1990-1995; (i) September 1995 to August 1998.
Source: National Demographic and Health Survey reports, taken from Bay et al. (2004).
Haiti
Guatemala
Ecuador
Costa Rica
Colombia
Brazil
Bolivia
Country
1989
1994
1998
2003
1986
1991
1996
1986
1990
1995
2000
2005
1986
1992
1999
1987
1994
1999
2004
1987
1995
1998/99
2002
1994/95
2000
Year
1.9
2.8
3.8
3.6
25.2
13.3
20.7
16.4
14.1
12.9
11.8
9.7
19.2
18.0
25.6
8.5
10.2
11.1
13.3
3.9
3.8
5.0
3.4
3.1
2.3
Pill
4.8
8.1
11.1
10.2
1.0
0.3
1.1
11.0
12.4
11.1
12.4
11.2
7.4
8.7
6.9
9.8
11.8
10.1
10.1
1.8
2.6
2.2
1.9
0.2
0.1
IUD
0.7
0.8
1.1
8.0
0.6
0.8
1.2
2.4
2.2
2.5
4.0
5.8
1.2
1.0
5.9
0.7
0.5
3.5
5.9
0.5
2.5
3.9
9.0
2.7
11.8
0.3
1.3
2.6
3.9
1.7
1.4
4.4
1.7
2.9
4.3
6.1
7.1
12.9
15.7
10.9
0.6
2.6
2.7
4.3
1.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.9
Injection Condom
Modern methods
4.4
4.6
6.5
6.5
26.8
37.7
40.1
18.3
20.9
25.7
27.1
31.2
16.7
19.7
21.4
14.9
19.8
22.5
24.2
10.3
14.3
16.7
16.8
3.1
2.8
Female
sterilization
16.1
22.0
20.0
19.3
4.0
2.4
3.0
5.7
6.1
5.2
6.0
3.8
7.6
6.9
6.0
6.1
7.4
7.9
7.5
2.8
3.6
5.7
6.3
0.6
2.1
1.0
1.7
2.3
3.8
5.0
2.9
3.1
5.7
4.8
5.8
6.3
5.7
3.1
3.3
1.8
2.0
3.5
6.5
5.7
1.2
0.9
1.5
2.3
2.4
3.1
Periodic
Coitus
abstinence interruptus
1.1
4.0
0.9
3.1
1.9
0.4
3.1
3.6
2.7
4.7
3.2
3.7
1.2
1.7
1.5
1.7
1.0
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.5
0.9
1.4
3.3
3.0
Other
Traditional methods
30.3
45.3
48.3
58.4
66.2
59.2
76.7
64.8
66.1
72.2
76.9
78.2
69.3
75.0
80.0
44.3
56.8
65.8
72.7
23.2
31.4
38.2
43.4
18.0
28.1
Total
users
69.7
54.7
51.7
41.6
33.8
40.8
23.3
35.2
33.9
27.8
23.1
21.8
30.7
25.0
20.0
55.7
43.2
34.2
27.3
76.8
68.6
61.8
56.6
82.0
71.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Total
Overall
non-users
TABLE A.16.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PREVALENCE OF CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS (IS COUNTRIES) (%)
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THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
595
Year
Pill
IUD
2.9
3.2
3.2
1.9
2.6
2.6
3.3
2.6
7.3
11.9
0.7
2.8
4.4
5.6
8.6
1.4
1.2
1.4
0.9
1.3
1.2
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.4
Injection Condom
1991/92
10.1
5.1
0.5
1996
9.9
8.5
1.1
2001
10.4
9.6
9.6
Mexico
1987
9.8
10.2
2.8
1.2
9.3
12.9
Nicaragua
1992/93
5.2
9.1
13.9
1997/98
6.4
14.3
14.6
2001
Paraguay
1990
13.6
5.7
5.2
1998
13.1
11.1
7.5
2004
15.0
11.5
10.4
Peru
1986
6.5
7.3
1.3
1992
5.7
13.4
1.9
1996
6.2
12.0
8.0
2000
6.7
9.1
14.8
2004
7.4
7.1
11.2
Dominican
1986
8.8
3.0
0.1
Republic
1991
9.8
1.8
0.1
1996
12.9
2.5
0.5
1999
14.5
3.2
0.8
2002
13.5
2.2
1.9
El Salvador
1985
6.6
3.3
0.7
1993
8.7
2.1
3.6
1998
8.1
1.5
8.9
2002/03
5.8
1.3
18.3
Venezuela
1998
21.1
9.5
–
Sources: Based on data from DHS, CDC and other surveys.
Honduras
Country
Modern methods
15.6
18.1
18.0
18.7
18.5
26.1
25.3
7.4
8.0
11.5
6.1
7.9
9.5
12.3
10.4
32.9
38.5
40.9
43.5
45.8
31.8
31.5
32.4
32.7
26.4
Female
sterilization
6.7
3.7
4.4
4.4
2.6
1.6
1.5
5.3
2.8
6.7
17.7
20.6
18.0
14.4
17.5
1.4
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.4
1.9
3.0
3.1
2.9
3.6
5.0
5.3
6.4
3.5
1.1
1.0
1.0
2.9
5.4
4.5
3.6
3.9
3.2
3.2
4.5
1.5
2.2
1.9
3.1
1.7
0.8
2.0
2.6
2.6
4.5
Periodic
Coitus
abstinence interruptus
0.3
1.3
0.2
1.4
0.4
0.8
2.2
5.7
2.0
1.3
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.8
0.7
0.8
1.8
1.3
2.0
1.0
0.4
0.7
0.9
1.8
Other
Traditional methods
46.2
51.1
61.8
52.7
48.6
60.3
68.6
48.4
57.2
72.8
45.8
59.0
64.2
68.9
70.5
49.8
56.4
63.7
69.2
69.8
47.3
53.4
59.8
67.4
70.3
Total
users
53.8
48.9
38.2
47.3
51.4
39.7
31.4
51.6
42.8
28.2
54.2
41.0
35.8
31.1
29.5
50.2
43.6
36.3
30.8
30.2
52.7
46.6
40.2
32.6
29.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
101.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Total
Overall
non-users
TABLE A.16.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PREVALENCE OF CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS (IS COUNTRIES) (%)
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597
TABLE A.17.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: MEAN AGE AT FIRST UNION
(19 COUNTRIES) 1970-2000 (YEARS)
Country
1970
Argentina
23.1
Bolivia
22.1
Brazil
23.0
Chile
23.4
Colombia
22.3
Costa Rica
21.7
Cuba
19.5
Ecuador
21.2
Guatemala
19.7
Honduras
20.0
Mexico
21.2
Nicaragua
20.2
Panama
20.5
Paraguay
21.7
Peru
21.8
Dominican Republic
19.6
El Salvador
19.0
Uruguay
22.5
Venezuela
22.2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2004), International Data Base.
1980
1990
2000
22.9
23.0
22.7
23.6
22.7
22.2
20.2
21.5
20.5
20.8
22.4
20.0
21.3
21.6
22.8
21.8
20.5
23.0
21.3
24.8
22.7
22.3
23.3
22.2
24.8
22.8
22.7
23.4
23.1
22.2
21.8
21.3
21.0
22.4
20.4
21.9
21.1
23.8
21.6
21.1
23.3
22.1
21.7
21.3
21.1
22.7
20.3
21.9
21.6
23.1
21.5
22.1
TABLE A.18.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PROPORTION OF WOMEN
AGED 20-29 IN CONSENSUAL UNION (19 COUNTRIES), 1970-2000 (%)
Country
1970
1980
Argentina
6.8
19.0
Bolivia
–
–
Brazil
14.5
18.4
Chile
13.0 (a)
13.9
Colombia
12.3
20.0
Costa Rica
10.6
12.1
Cuba
29.3 (a)
–
Ecuador
18.8
19.9
Guatemala
39.7
33.0
Honduras
39.7
33.9
Mexico
11.3
9.9
Nicaragua
29.9
–
Panama
36.9
35.1
Paraguay
16.0
14.9
Peru
16.0
19.9 (a)
Dominican Republic
40.8 (a)
36.9
El Salvador
35.7
–
Uruguay
16.0
19.0
Venezuela
18.0
19.4
Sources: ECLAC; (a) U.S. Census Bureau (2004), International Data Base.
1990
2000
12.8
–
25.1
7.0
29.8
–
–
19.8
27.3
–
11.0
38.4
34.2
18.3
28.0
35.7
31.2
15.5
20.8
23.7
24.1
28.5
13.7
–
20.8
38.2
25.4
25.8
37.3
15.7
37.3
40.4
29.6
–
41.1
–
–
29.6
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TABLE A.19.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PROPORTION OF SINGLE WOMEN
AT AGE 45-49 (19 COUNTRIES), 1970-2000 (%)
Country
1970
1980
Argentina
10.9
10.2
Bolivia
17.7
–
Brazil
18.8
18.1
Chile
12.8 (a)
12.7
Colombia
15.3
11.7
Costa Rica
14.6
13.3
Cuba
10.1 (a)
–
Ecuador
11.0
10.1
Guatemala
10.8
15.8
Honduras
14.9
14.0
Mexico
17.1
7.0
Nicaragua
12.6
–
Panama
17.1
17.1
Paraguay
19.9
15.3
Peru
12.0
18.5 (a)
Dominican Republic
–
18.0
El Salvador
22.3
–
Uruguay
10.6
19.2
Venezuela
22.2
14.3
Sources: ECLAC; (a) U.S. Census Bureau (2004), International Data Base.
1990
2000
11.4
17.3
18.0
13.4
12.1
–
–
10.3
17.3
–
17.1
16.7
18.1
14.5
19.5
19.4
13.7
18.6
12.8
10.2
10.9
17.0
15.7
–
13.0
19.4
12.1
18.8
13.4
17.5
11.0
19.0
13.0
–
10.2
–
–
14.0
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 599 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
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599
TABLE A.20.– LEGAL STATUS OF ABORTION IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
Totally prohibited
Authorized to save the woman's life
Authorized for physical health reasons
Chile
El Salvador
Antigua and Barbuda
Brazil
Dominica
Guatemala
Haiti
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Dominican Republic
Suriname
Venezuela
Argentina
Bahamas
Bolivia
Colombia
(a)
(a),(h)
(g)
(g),(a),(c)
(d)
(a),(b)
(a),(b),(c)
(adopted in May 2006)
Costa Rica
Ecuador
(d)
Grenada
Peru
Saint Lucia
Uruguay
(a)
Jamaica
(g)
Authorized for mental health reasons
Trinidad and Tobago
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Barbados
(g),(a),(b),(c)
Authorized for socioeconomic reasons
Belize
(c)
St Vincent and the Grenadines (a),(b),(c)
Authorized without restriction
Cuba
(g)
Guyana
(f)
Puerto Rico
(e)
(a) Abortion authorized in the event of rape; (b) Abortion authorized in the event of incest;
(c) Abortion authorized in the event of damage to the foetus; (d) Abortion authorized in the event of
rape of a mentally handicapped woman; (e) The law does not restrict abortion while the foetus is not
yet viable; (f) Up to eight weeks' gestation; (g) Parental consent required; (h) The laws are not the
same in all states and provinces: we consider the legislation that applies to the majority of the
national population.
Source: Grupo de Información en Reproducción Elegida (GIRE), 2005. Situación legal del aborto en
el Mundo. Data available online at: http://www.gire.org.mx/
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TABLE A.21.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH
BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD, 1950-2004 (MEN AND WOMEN)
Sub-region
and country
Life expectancy at birth (years)
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
49.3 53.5 56.7 58.8 61.3 63.8 66.2 68.5 70.7 72.5 73.8
Costa Rica
57.3 60.2 63.0 65.6 68.1 71.0 73.8 75.2 76.2 77.3 78.1
Guatemala
42.0 44.2 47.0 50.1 53.9 56.2 58.3 60.9 63.6 66.3 68.9
Honduras
41.8 44.6 48.0 51.0 54.1 57.7 61.6 65.4 67.7 69.8 71.0
Mexico
50.7 55.3 58.5 60.3 62.6 65.3 67.7 69.8 71.8 73.6 74.8
Nicaragua
42.3 45.4 48.6 51.9 55.2 57.6 59.5 62.2 66.1 68.0 69.5
Panama
55.3 59.3 62.0 64.3 66.5 69.0 70.8 71.9 72.9 73.8 74.7
El Salvador
45.3 48.6 52.3 55.9 58.3 57.1 57.1 63.4 67.1 69.4 70.6
Caribbean
53.3 56.6 59.3 61.8 63.9 65.7 66.6 67.6 68.3 69.5 70.5
Netherlands Antilles
60.5 64.4 66.6 68.3 70.4 72.1 73.8 74.5 74.6 75.5 76.3
Bahamas
59.8 62.4 64.2 65.8 66.5 67.3 68.1 69.6 68.7 67.3 67.1
Barbados
57.2 62.6 65.9 67.6 69.4 71.3 73.2 74.6 75.4 76.4 77.2
Belize
57.7 60.2 62.7 65.2 67.6 69.7 71.2 72.3 72.5 72.5 71.4
Cuba
59.5 62.4 65.4 68.6 71.0 73.1 74.3 74.6 74.8 76.2 77.1
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
56.5 61.6 64.6 65.8 67.8 69.9 72.5 73.6 75.9 77.3 78.3
Guyana
52.3 54.8 57.3 59.2 60.0 60.7 61.0 62.1 63.8 63.6 63.2
French Guiana
53.3 56.1 59.4 64.2 65.7 66.5 69.4 71.2 72.8 74.2 75.1
Haiti
37.6 40.7 43.6 46.3 48.5 50.7 51.9 53.6 55.4 57.2 59.2
Jamaica
58.5 62.6 65.6 67.5 69.0 70.1 71.2 72.5 73.7 74.8 75.7
Martinique
56.6 60.8 64.2 66.7 69.2 71.8 74.2 76.3 77.6 78.8 79.1
Puerto Rico
64.3 68.5 69.6 71.1 72.2 73.4 73.8 74.6 73.9 74.9 75.6
Dominican Republic
46.0 50.0 53.6 57.0 59.9 62.1 63.2 65.1 67.0 68.6 70.1
Saint Lucia
54.1 56.8 59.7 62.5 65.3 68.0 70.5 71.0 71.4 71.5 72.5
Suriname
56.0 58.7 60.5 62.5 64.0 65.1 67.1 68.2 69.0 70.1 71.1
Trinidad and Tobago
59.1 61.8 64.9 65.4 65.9 68.3 70.2 72.1 71.9 72.1 71.3
Andean countries
48.7 52.1 54.9 57.3 59.7 62.1 64.8 66.8 68.3 70.0 71.4
Bolivia
40.4 41.9 43.5 45.1 46.7 50.1 53.9 57.3 60.0 62.0 63.8
Colombia
50.6 55.1 57.9 60.0 61.7 64.0 66.8 67.9 68.6 70.7 72.2
Ecuador
48.4 51.4 54.7 56.8 58.9 61.4 64.5 67.5 70.0 72.3 74.2
Peru
43.9 46.3 49.1 51.5 55.5 58.5 61.6 64.4 66.7 68.3 69.8
Venezuela
55.2 58.1 61.0 63.8 66.1 67.7 68.8 70.5 71.5 72.2 72.8
Southern Cone
and Brazil
54.3 56.4 58.3 59.9 61.7 63.6 65.3 67.0 68.8 70.5 72.0
Argentina
62.7 64.7 65.5 66.0 67.4 68.8 70.2 71.0 72.1 73.2 74.3
Brazil
51.0 53.4 55.9 57.9 59.8 61.8 63.6 65.5 67.5 69.4 71.0
Chile
54.8 56.2 58.1 60.6 63.6 67.2 70.7 72.7 74.3 75.7 77.7
Paraguay
62.6 63.2 64.4 65.0 65.9 66.5 67.1 67.6 68.5 69.7 70.8
Uruguay
66.3 67.2 68.4 68.6 68.8 69.6 71.0 72.1 73.0 74.1 75.2
Overall
51.4 54.3 56.8 58.8 60.9 63.0 64.9 66.7 68.3 70.2 71.5
Sources: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
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601
TABLE A.22.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: MALE LIFE EXPECTANCY
AT BIRTH BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD, 1950-2004
Sub-region
and country
Life expectancy at birth (years)
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
47.8 51.8 54.8 56.9 59.0 60.9 62.9 65.5 67.9 70.1 71.3
Costa Rica
56.0 58.8 61.6 63.9 66.1 68.9 71.6 72.9 74.0 75.0 75.8
Guatemala
41.8 43.7 46.2 49.0 52.4 54.4 56.1 58.3 60.5 62.9 65.5
Honduras
40.5 43.0 46.3 49.2 52.1 55.6 59.4 63.2 65.4 67.5 68.6
Mexico
48.9 53.3 56.4 58.2 60.1 62.2 64.4 66.8 69.0 71.3 72.4
Nicaragua
40.9 44.1 47.3 50.5 53.7 55.3 56.5 59.0 63.5 65.7 67.2
Panama
54.4 58.4 60.9 63.1 64.9 67.0 68.4 69.3 70.2 71.3 72.3
El Salvador
44.1 47.3 50.8 54.1 56.1 52.2 50.8 59.0 63.3 66.5 67.7
Caribbean
51.8 55.0 57.6 60.1 62.0 63.8 64.7 65.5 66.2 67.2 68.3
Netherlands Antilles
59.1 63.0 64.8 66.4 67.8 69.5 70.9 71.5 71.5 72.5 73.3
Bahamas
58.3 60.8 61.0 62.9 63.2 63.5 64.4 66.0 64.8 63.4 63.9
Barbados
55.0 60.2 63.5 65.2 66.9 68.7 70.5 71.9 72.9 73.7 74.5
Belize
57.1 59.6 62.1 64.6 66.9 68.9 70.1 71.1 71.5 71.0 69.9
Cuba
57.8 60.8 63.8 67.0 69.4 71.5 72.6 72.8 72.9 74.2 75.3
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
55.0 59.5 62.5 63.2 64.7 66.4 68.9 70.1 72.4 73.6 74.8
Guyana
50.8 53.3 55.8 57.5 58.0 58.3 58.2 59.2 60.5 60.2 60.1
French Guiana
50.3 53.0 56.4 61.4 62.5 63.1 66.0 68.2 70.0 71.5 72.5
Haiti
36.3 39.4 42.3 44.9 47.1 49.2 50.6 52.2 54.0 55.8 57.8
Jamaica
56.9 60.8 63.7 65.7 67.3 68.4 69.6 70.7 71.9 72.9 73.7
Martinique
55.0 59.0 62.3 64.3 66.3 68.5 72.0 73.2 74.7 75.5 75.8
Puerto Rico
62.7 66.6 67.0 68.2 69.2 70.2 70.5 70.6 69.6 70.4 71.2
Dominican Republic
44.7 48.6 52.1 55.4 58.1 60.3 61.4 63.2 65.0 66.5 67.8
Saint Lucia
52.7 55.1 57.6 60.0 62.4 64.9 67.3 68.3 69.3 69.8 70.8
Suriname
54.4 57.0 58.7 60.5 61.7 62.8 64.8 65.8 66.5 67.5 68.5
Trinidad and Tobago
58.2 60.1 62.9 63.4 63.6 65.9 67.6 69.1 69.4 69.2 68.4
Andean countries
47.2 50.6 53.4 55.5 57.7 60.0 62.1 64.0 65.2 67.1 68.6
Bolivia
38.5 39.9 41.4 43.0 44.6 48.0 52.0 55.6 58.3 60.1 61.8
Colombia
49.0 53.5 56.2 58.3 59.7 61.8 63.6 64.2 64.3 67.3 69.2
Ecuador
47.1 50.1 53.4 55.4 57.4 59.7 62.5 65.3 67.6 69.7 71.3
Peru
42.9 45.1 47.8 50.1 53.9 56.7 59.5 62.1 64.4 65.9 67.3
Venezuela
53.8 56.6 59.3 61.5 63.3 64.8 65.9 67.7 68.7 69.3 69.9
Southern Cone
and Brazil
52.5 54.3 56.1 57.6 59.2 61.1 62.1 63.6 65.1 66.9 68.4
Argentina
60.4 62.1 62.5 62.8 64.1 65.4 66.8 67.6 68.6 69.7 70.6
Brazil
49.3 51.6 54.0 55.9 57.6 59.5 60.4 62.0 63.7 65.7 67.3
Chile
52.9 53.8 55.3 57.6 60.5 63.9 67.4 69.6 71.5 72.8 74.8
Paraguay
60.7 61.3 62.5 63.1 63.8 64.4 64.9 65.4 66.3 67.5 68.6
Uruguay
63.3 64.2 65.4 65.5 65.6 66.3 67.6 68.6 69.2 70.5 71.6
Overall
49.7 52.5 54.9 56.7 58.6 60.5 62.0 63.6 65.0 66.9 68.3
Sources: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 602 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
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J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE A.23.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: FEMALE LIFE EXPECTANCY
AT BIRTH BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD, 1950-2004
Sub-region
and country
Life expectancy at birth (years)
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
51.0 55.2 58.6 60.9 63.7 67.0 69.6 71.7 73.6 75.1 76.5
Costa Rica
58.6 61.5 64.5 67.5 70.2 73.3 76.1 77.5 78.6 79.7 80.6
Guatemala
42.3 44.7 47.9 51.3 55.4 58.0 60.6 63.7 66.8 70.0 72.5
Honduras
43.2 46.2 49.8 53.0 56.2 59.9 63.8 67.7 70.1 72.3 73.4
Mexico
52.5 57.3 60.6 62.5 65.2 68.6 71.2 73.0 74.6 76.1 77.4
Nicaragua
43.7 46.8 50.0 53.4 56.8 60.0 62.6 65.5 68.7 70.4 71.9
Panama
56.2 60.4 63.1 65.5 68.1 71.1 73.3 74.6 75.7 76.4 77.4
El Salvador
46.5 50.0 54.0 57.8 60.6 62.2 63.8 68.0 71.1 72.5 73.7
Caribbean
54.8 58.2 61.1 63.7 65.9 67.8 68.6 69.8 70.7 71.8 72.8
Netherlands Antilles
61.6 65.6 68.3 70.2 73.0 74.8 76.5 77.5 77.6 78.4 79.2
Bahamas
61.2 63.8 67.3 68.6 69.9 71.2 72.5 73.9 73.5 71.4 70.3
Barbados
59.5 65.0 68.3 70.1 72.0 73.9 75.5 76.9 77.9 78.7 79.5
Belize
58.3 60.8 63.3 65.8 68.3 70.6 72.5 73.7 73.9 74.2 73.0
Cuba
61.3 64.2 67.1 70.2 72.7 74.9 76.0 76.6 76.7 78.2 79.1
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
58.1 63.7 66.8 68.5 70.9 73.4 76.2 77.1 80.1 80.9 81.7
Guyana
53.9 56.4 58.9 61.0 62.1 63.2 64.0 65.3 67.4 67.1 66.3
French Guiana
56.9 59.9 63.2 68.0 69.5 70.5 73.0 74.5 76.0 77.5 78.3
Haiti
38.9 42.0 44.9 47.6 50.0 52.2 53.3 55.0 56.8 58.7 60.7
Jamaica
60.2 64.5 67.5 69.3 70.7 71.8 72.9 74.2 75.8 76.8 77.8
Martinique
58.1 62.3 66.0 69.0 72.0 75.0 76.4 79.2 81.5 82.0 82.3
Puerto Rico
66.0 70.7 72.3 74.0 76.0 77.0 77.5 78.9 79.1 79.6 80.1
Dominican Republic
47.3 51.4 55.2 58.7 61.8 64.0 65.1 67.0 69.0 70.8 72.4
Saint Lucia
55.3 58.5 61.6 64.7 67.9 71.0 73.7 73.6 73.6 73.1 74.1
Suriname
57.7 60.5 62.5 64.5 66.5 67.7 69.7 70.8 71.5 72.7 73.7
Trinidad and Tobago
59.9 63.5 67.1 67.6 68.3 70.9 72.6 74.2 74.8 75.2 74.4
Andean countries
50.2 53.6 56.6 59.1 61.8 64.4 67.6 69.8 71.6 73.0 74.3
Bolivia
42.5 44.0 45.6 47.3 49.0 52.2 55.9 59.1 61.8 64.0 66.0
Colombia
52.3 56.9 59.7 61.8 63.9 66.3 70.2 71.7 73.0 74.3 75.3
Ecuador
49.6 52.7 56.1 58.2 60.5 63.2 66.7 69.9 72.6 75.1 77.2
Peru
45.0 47.5 50.5 53.0 57.3 60.5 63.8 66.8 69.2 70.9 72.4
Venezuela
56.6 59.6 62.8 66.1 68.9 70.7 71.8 73.5 74.5 75.2 75.8
Southern Cone
and Brazil
56.3 58.6 60.6 62.3 64.3 66.3 68.7 70.7 72.6 74.3 75.8
Argentina
65.1 67.4 68.6 69.3 70.8 72.2 73.7 74.6 75.8 77.0 78.1
Brazil
52.8 55.4 57.8 60.0 62.2 64.3 66.9 69.2 71.5 73.3 74.9
Chile
56.8 58.7 61.0 63.8 66.8 70.6 74.2 75.9 77.4 78.8 80.8
Paraguay
64.7 65.2 66.4 67.0 68.1 68.7 69.3 69.9 70.8 72.0 73.1
Uruguay
69.4 70.4 71.6 71.9 72.2 73.1 74.5 75.8 76.9 78.0 78.9
Overall
53.1 56.2 58.8 60.9 63.3 65.7 68.1 70.0 71.7 73.6 74.9
Sources: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 603 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
603
TABLE A.24.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FEMALE
AND MALE LIFE EXPECTANCIES BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD, 1950-2004
Sub-region
and country
Difference between female and male life expectancy (F-M) in years
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.0
4.7
6.1
6.6
6.2
5.7
5.1
5.1
Costa Rica
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.6
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
Guatemala
0.5
1.0
1.7
2.3
3.0
3.6
4.5
5.4
6.3
7.1
7.0
Honduras
2.7
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.8
Mexico
3.6
3.9
4.2
4.3
5.1
6.3
6.7
6.2
5.6
4.8
4.9
Nicaragua
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.1
4.7
6.2
6.5
5.2
4.7
4.8
Panama
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.4
3.1
4.2
4.9
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.1
El Salvador
2.4
2.7
3.2
3.7
4.5 10.1 13.0 9.0
7.7
6.0
6.1
Caribbean
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.9
4.0
3.9
4.2
4.5
4.6
4.5
Netherlands Antilles
2.5
2.6
3.5
3.8
5.2
5.3
5.6
6.0
6.1
5.9
5.9
Bahamas
2.9
3.0
6.3
5.7
6.7
7.8
8.1
7.8
8.8
8.0
6.4
Barbados
4.5
4.8
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
Belize
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.7
2.4
2.6
2.4
3.3
3.1
Cuba
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.8
3.8
4.0
3.8
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
3.1
4.2
4.3
5.3
6.2
7.0
7.3
6.9
7.7
7.3
6.9
Guyana
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.5
4.1
5.0
5.8
6.2
6.9
7.0
6.3
French Guiana
6.6
6.9
6.9
6.6
7.0
7.4
7.0
6.3
6.0
6.0
5.8
Haiti
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.1
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
Jamaica
3.3
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.9
3.9
4.1
Martinique
3.1
3.3
3.7
4.7
5.7
6.5
4.4
6.0
6.8
6.5
6.5
Puerto Rico
3.3
4.2
5.4
5.8
6.8
6.8
7.0
8.2
9.6
9.2
8.9
Dominican Republic
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.3
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.3
4.6
Saint Lucia
2.6
3.3
4.0
4.7
5.4
6.1
6.4
5.3
4.3
3.4
3.4
Suriname
3.3
3.5
3.8
4.0
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.2
Trinidad and Tobago
1.7
3.4
4.2
4.2
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.5
6.0
6.0
Andean countries
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.6
4.2
4.5
5.5
5.9
6.4
5.9
5.7
Bolivia
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.5
3.5
3.9
4.2
Colombia
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
4.2
4.5
6.6
7.5
8.8
7.0
6.1
Ecuador
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.1
3.6
4.2
4.6
5.1
5.5
5.9
Peru
2.1
2.4
2.7
2.9
3.4
3.8
4.3
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.1
Venezuela
2.8
3.0
3.5
4.7
5.6
5.9
6.0
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.9
Southern Cone
and Brazil
3.8
4.2
4.4
4.7
5.1
5.2
6.5
7.1
7.5
7.4
7.4
Argentina
4.7
5.3
6.2
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.2
7.3
7.5
Brazil
3.4
3.8
3.8
4.0
4.6
4.7
6.5
7.2
7.7
7.6
7.6
Chile
3.9
4.9
5.7
6.1
6.3
6.6
6.8
6.3
5.9
6.0
6.0
Paraguay
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.9
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
Uruguay
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.6
6.8
6.9
7.2
7.7
7.5
7.3
Overall
3.4
3.7
3.9
4.2
4.7
5.2
6.1
6.4
6.7
6.7
6.6
Sources: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 604 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
604
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE A.25.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED INFANT MORTALITY
RATE BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD, 1950-2004 (MALES AND FEMALES)
Sub-region
and country
Infant mortality rate (per thousand)
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
126.5 108.7 95.5 85.7 74.8 62.3 51.8 43.0 35.5 29.4 22.9
Costa Rica
93.8 87.7 81.3 67.7 52.5 30.4 19.2 17.4 14.5 11.8 10.5
Guatemala
140.8 133.8 126.7 115.5 102.5 90.9 79.3 67.1 54.8 45.5 38.6
Honduras
169.3 153.9 135.5 119.0 103.7 81.0 65.0 53.0 43.0 35.0 31.2
Mexico
121.2 101.5 88.0 79.4 69.0 56.8 47.0 39.5 33.1 27.7 20.5
Nicaragua
172.3 150.7 131.3 113.8 97.9 90.1 79.8 65.0 48.0 35.0 30.1
Panama
93.0 74.9 62.7 51.6 43.7 36.3 31.6 29.6 27.0 23.7 20.6
El Salvador
151.1 137.0 122.7 110.3 105.0 95.0 77.0 54.0 40.2 32.0 26.4
Caribbean
115.5 100.3 87.8 77.9 68.3 57.5 48.6 42.1 34.9 30.5 26.9
Netherlands Antilles
69.0 51.0 42.0 35.0 28.0 22.0 18.0 17.0 16.3 14.2 12.6
Bahamas
78.8 56.3 48.3 41.2 38.2 35.4 29.6 23.1 20.4 19.1 17.7
Barbados
132.0 87.0 61.0 46.0 33.0 27.0 16.9 15.2 14.0 12.4 10.9
Belize
88.0 78.0 69.0 60.0 52.0 45.0 39.3 35.9 34.6 33.3 31.1
Cuba
80.6 69.9 59.4 49.7 38.5 22.3 17.4 15.9 15.3
9.6
6.1
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
79.5 60.0 48.9 44.9 38.5 31.9 24.7 22.0
9.2
8.3
7.4
Guyana
119.0 105.0 95.0 82.0 79.0 67.0 69.3 65.6 56.7 55.6 51.2
French Guiana
103.4 89.1 73.1 51.4 45.9 42.9 32.0 25.0 19.9 16.4 14.3
Haiti
219.6 193.5 176.2 165.2 152.2 139.2 122.1 100.1 74.1 66.1 59.1
Jamaica
91.9 78.3 61.4 51.6 45.0 37.0 30.5 27.0 24.3 21.9 19.9
Martinique
64.7 55.7 47.7 42.3 34.7 21.9 14.0 10.1
7.6
7.0
6.8
Puerto Rico
63.4 51.4 44.8 33.3 25.3 19.7 17.2 13.8 11.6 11.0 10.3
Dominican Republic 149.4 132.2 117.5 105.0 93.5 84.3 62.5 54.1 46.6 40.0 34.4
Saint Lucia
114.6 105.3 81.1 47.7 39.1 29.3 22.7 20.1 16.9 16.9 14.8
Suriname
89.2 76.2 63.5 54.6 48.8 44.0 40.3 36.1 33.4 29.1 25.7
Trinidad and Tobago
76.0 63.0 48.0 45.6 41.1 32.0 25.3 19.7 16.3 15.1 14.1
Andean countries
135.1 120.4 107.3 96.5 85.1 71.3 59.6 49.6 41.2 33.9 27.8
Bolivia
175.7 169.7 163.6 157.5 151.3 131.2 109.2 90.1 75.1 66.7 55.6
Colombia
123.2 105.3 92.1 82.2 73.0 56.7 48.4 41.4 35.2 30.0 25.6
Ecuador
139.5 129.4 119.2 107.1 95.0 82.4 68.5 55.5 44.2 33.3 24.9
Peru
158.6 148.2 136.1 126.3 110.3 99.1 81.6 68.0 55.5 42.1 33.4
Venezuela
106.4 89.0 72.8 59.5 48.7 39.3 33.6 26.9 23.1 20.7 17.5
Southern Cone
and Brazil
116.1 106.7 97.6 89.7 80.0 68.6 54.8 45.5 37.4 30.6 24.2
Argentina
65.9 60.4 59.7 57.4 48.1 39.1 32.2 27.1 24.4 21.8 15.0
Brazil
134.7 121.9 109.4 100.1 90.5 78.8 63.3 52.4 42.5 34.1 27.3
Chile
120.3 118.3 109.0 89.2 68.6 45.2 23.7 18.4 14.1 11.5
8.0
Paraguay
73.4 69.7 62.3 58.6 53.1 51.0 48.9 46.7 43.3 39.2 37.0
Uruguay
57.4 53.0 47.9 47.1 46.3 42.4 33.5 22.6 20.1 17.5 13.1
Overall
126.2 112.7 100.8 91.1 80.7 69.0 56.9 47.1 38.7 32.1 26.0
Sources: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 605 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
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605
TABLE A.26.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED MALE INFANT
MORTALITY RATE BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD, 1950-2004
Sub-region
and country
Male infant mortality rate (per thousand)
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
138.0 120.0 106.0 94.6 82.7 69.5 57.5 46.9 38.4 32.4 25.6
Costa Rica
101.0 95.0 88.9 74.5 58.5 33.8 21.4 19.6 16.4 13.3 11.8
Guatemala
150.3 142.7 135.2 122.8 108.4 95.9 83.6 71.6 59.6 50.7 44.0
Honduras
172.5 159.8 143.1 127.0 112.2 88.6 71.7 58.9 48.2 39.7 35.5
Mexico
133.8 114.1 99.6 88.9 77.2 64.4 52.9 43.0 35.5 30.3 22.9
Nicaragua
180.3 159.0 139.7 122.0 105.7 98.1 87.5 71.8 53.8 39.5 33.8
Panama
101.0 81.6 68.5 56.6 48.3 40.8 36.0 33.9 31.1 27.6 24.1
El Salvador
161.3 146.0 130.7 117.4 112.5 101.9 82.7 59.9 43.9 34.9 28.6
Caribbean
124.2 108.4 94.2 81.9 71.3 59.4 53.0 46.2 38.1 33.3 29.1
Netherlands Antilles
73.3 54.3 46.5 39.5 34.3 27.8 22.7 21.5 20.7 17.4 16.2
Bahamas
84.8 60.8 58.3 49.4 48.0 46.6 38.0 28.8 22.8 19.2 15.8
Barbados
148.0 99.6 71.0 54.5 39.9 33.5 20.9 18.6 16.4 14.2 11.9
Belize
92.5 81.1 70.9 60.9 52.3 45.1 39.9 36.7 34.7 33.2 31.7
Cuba
90.8 78.7 66.9 55.9 43.0 25.0 19.0 18.0 17.4 11.2
6.7
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
88.3 67.6 55.7 51.5 44.5 37.3 29.2 26.2 11.0
9.7
8.3
Guyana
130.4 114.2 102.6 88.6 86.4 74.6 78.8 76.5 71.6 65.1 56.9
French Guiana
120.5 105.3 87.4 62.9 57.8 55.2 42.1 32.9 25.7 20.7 17.3
Haiti
230.1 203.9 180.6 160.0 145.0 131.1 128.0 105.0 78.0 70.0 63.0
Jamaica
98.9 85.5 67.6 56.7 49.4 40.6 33.7 30.0 17.9 16.8 16.0
Martinique
71.0 61.6 53.3 47.6 39.4 25.2 16.2 11.8 11.1
8.9
7.7
Puerto Rico
68.7 56.1 49.0 36.6 27.9 21.8 19.1 15.4 12.9 12.1 10.7
Dominican Republic 157.6 140.2 125.3 112.6 100.9 90.8 70.8 61.5 53.5 46.0 39.6
Saint Lucia
127.1 117.7 91.5 54.3 45.0 34.2 26.9 23.7 19.8 18.8 16.5
Suriname
96.8 83.2 70.0 60.8 56.0 50.9 46.0 41.7 38.8 34.7 30.6
Trinidad and Tobago
79.0 68.9 54.3 51.7 47.6 38.2 31.0 24.8 20.6 18.1 16.0
Andean countries
142.9 127.8 114.5 103.5 91.9 77.2 65.1 54.8 45.7 38.4 32.1
Bolivia
190.0 182.9 175.8 168.5 161.2 140.0 116.0 96.0 79.2 70.3 60.0
Colombia
130.0 112.5 99.5 89.5 80.3 62.6 53.4 46.2 39.5 34.0 29.2
Ecuador
150.5 139.6 128.7 116.1 103.5 90.1 75.5 61.7 49.6 37.4 28.8
Peru
166.4 155.6 143.0 132.8 116.1 104.6 87.9 74.7 61.8 50.1 41.7
Venezuela
110.9 92.7 76.3 63.8 53.4 43.7 37.6 30.3 25.9 22.8 19.0
Southern Cone
and Brazil
125.1 115.9 106.5 98.5 90.6 78.8 60.7 50.9 42.3 34.5 27.5
Argentina
69.9 64.3 64.2 62.0 52.2 42.7 35.5 30.0 27.0 24.2 17.0
Brazil
145.6 133.0 119.8 110.4 103.5 91.4 70.2 58.8 48.3 38.6 31.0
Chile
128.0 126.4 117.1 96.5 74.3 49.2 25.8 19.9 15.3 12.6
9.0
Paraguay
77.8 73.8 65.9 62.0 59.2 57.0 54.7 52.5 48.6 43.8 41.9
Uruguay
62.1 57.7 52.3 51.8 51.3 47.1 36.9 25.0 22.5 20.5 15.5
Overall
135.7 122.3 109.8 99.5 89.5 77.2 62.7 52.1 42.9 35.8 29.2
Sources: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 606 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
606
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE A.27.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ESTIMATED FEMALE INFANT
MORTALITY RATE BY FIVE-YEAR PERIOD, 1950-2004
Sub-region
and country
Female infant mortality rate (per thousand)
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Mesoamerica
114.4 96.7 84.4 76.3 66.5 54.9 45.8 38.9 32.4 26.3 20.0
Costa Rica
86.2 80.0 73.3 60.5 46.3 26.9 16.9 15.0 12.6 10.3
9.1
Guatemala
130.9 124.4 117.9 107.8 96.2 85.8 74.8 62.3 49.8 40.1 33.0
Honduras
166.0 147.8 127.5 110.5 94.8 73.1 57.9 46.8 37.6 30.2 26.7
Mexico
107.9 88.3 75.9 69.5 60.3 49.0 40.9 35.9 30.6 24.9 18.0
Nicaragua
163.9 142.0 122.5 105.2 89.6 81.8 71.7 57.8 41.9 30.2 26.2
Panama
84.6 67.9 56.6 46.4 38.8 31.6 27.1 25.2 22.7 19.7 17.0
El Salvador
140.3 127.6 114.2 102.8 97.1 87.7 71.0 47.9 36.3 29.0 24.1
Caribbean
101.5 87.7 73.5 59.6 50.2 39.4 37.5 32.0 25.7 22.8 20.3
Netherlands Antilles
64.5 47.5 37.3 30.2 21.4 15.9 13.1 12.2 11.7 10.8 10.1
Bahamas
72.6 51.6 37.8 32.6 27.9 23.8 22.5 18.4 15.5 13.5 11.6
Barbados
115.5 74.0 50.7 37.1 25.8 20.2 12.6 11.7 11.4 10.5
9.7
Belize
83.4 74.8 67.0 59.1 51.7 44.9 38.7 35.1 34.1 32.3 29.4
Cuba
69.9 60.5 51.5 43.1 33.6 19.6 15.7 13.6 13.0
7.9
5.5
Dominica
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Grenada
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadeloupe
70.4 52.0 41.9 38.1 32.3 26.3 19.9 17.6
7.3
6.8
6.3
Guyana
107.1 95.3 87.1 75.0 71.2 59.0 59.8 57.7 51.7 46.7 41.0
French Guiana
85.4 72.2 58.0 39.3 33.4 29.9 21.4 16.8 13.8 11.8 10.8
Haiti
208.5 182.6 159.9 140.0 124.3 110.1 116.0 95.0 70.0 62.0 55.0
Jamaica
84.5 70.8 54.9 46.3 40.4 33.2 27.1 23.9 15.6 14.5 13.8
Martinique
58.2 49.5 41.9 36.8 29.8 18.5 11.6
8.4
7.6
7.0
6.4
Puerto Rico
57.8 46.5 40.3 29.8 22.5 17.5 15.3 12.2 10.3
9.8
9.0
Dominican Republic 140.8 123.8 109.3 97.1 85.8 77.4 53.9 46.3 39.4 33.7 28.9
Saint Lucia
101.8 92.6 70.4 40.9 32.9 24.2 18.5 16.3 13.6 14.4 13.2
Suriname
81.0 68.7 56.4 48.0 41.1 36.5 34.4 30.4 27.9 23.9 20.3
Trinidad and Tobago
72.9 56.9 41.5 39.3 34.3 25.5 19.5 14.4 12.4 11.8 11.3
Andean countries
130.5 118.7 107.1 96.0 84.0 71.7 58.8 47.5 38.5 31.3 24.9
Bolivia
160.7 155.8 150.9 145.9 140.9 122.0 102.0 84.0 70.8 62.8 51.0
Colombia
116.0 97.8 84.3 74.5 65.4 50.5 43.1 36.4 30.6 25.8 21.8
Ecuador
128.1 118.6 109.1 97.7 86.2 74.2 61.1 49.0 38.6 28.9 20.8
Peru
150.4 140.5 128.9 119.5 104.2 93.3 75.1 61.0 48.8 39.6 32.9
Venezuela
101.7 85.1 69.2 55.1 43.7 34.8 29.4 23.4 20.3 18.5 16.0
Southern Cone
and Brazil
106.8 97.1 88.4 80.5 68.9 57.8 48.6 39.7 32.3 26.5 20.8
Argentina
61.7 56.3 55.1 52.6 43.8 35.3 28.8 24.1 21.6 19.4 13.0
Brazil
123.3 110.3 98.5 89.3 76.9 65.5 56.1 45.6 36.5 29.4 23.5
Chile
112.4 109.8 100.7 81.7 62.6 40.9 21.6 16.7 12.9 10.3
7.0
Paraguay
68.9 65.4 58.4 55.0 46.7 44.8 42.7 40.6 37.8 34.4 31.8
Uruguay
52.5 48.1 43.3 42.2 41.1 37.5 30.0 20.0 17.5 14.4 10.5
Overall
116.2 102.7 91.3 82.3 71.5 60.3 50.8 41.9 34.2 28.3 22.7
Sources: ECLAC estimates (http://www.eclac.cl/celade/proyecciones/basedatos_BD.htm). Data for
the English-speaking Caribbean are from the United Nations (2005).
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 607 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
607
TABLE A.28.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: INFANT MORTALITY RATE
BY MOTHER'S PLACE OF RESIDENCE AND EDUCATIONAL LEVEL (14 COUNTRIES),
1980S, 1990S AND 2000S (PER THOUSAND)
Place of residence
Country
Bolivia
Survey
date
Level of education
No ed./
SeconNo
Secon- Overall
Rural/
dary
Urban Rural
educa- Primary
dary
Urban
or
tion
or
above
above
1989
73.9 106.6 1.4
116.1 98.7
50.2
2.3
1994
68.8 105.8 1.5
122.2 99.5
48.2
2.5
1998
53.0
99.9 1.9
112.5 86.6
41.3
2.7
2003
57.4
81.4 1.4
102.6 74.2
39.0
2.6
Brazil
1986 (a)
72.9 106.0 1.5
113.2 89.1
23.1
4.9
1991 (b)
81.0 106.9 1.3
124.7 86.9
34.5
3.6
1996
42.4
65.3 1.5
93.2 58.1
32.0
2.9
Colombia
1986
37.5
40.7 1.1
49.3 42.0
28.6
1.7
1990
28.9
23.4 0.8
60.5 27.3
20.4
3.0
1995
28.3
35.2 1.2
26.9 36.5
25.6
1.1
2000
21.3
31.1 1.5
42.3 28.2
19.6
2.2
2005
20.3
25.9 1.3
43.3 27.3
17.4
2.5
Ecuador
1987
51.6
77.7 1.5
104.5 68.7
39.4
2.7
1994
30.0
52.0 1.7
79.0 44.0
28.6
2.8
1999
22.0
40.0 1.8
51.0 35.0
21.8
2.3
2004)
28.0
32.0 1.1
48.0 36.0
22.2
2.2
Guatemala
1987 (a)
66.6
84.2 1.3
82.9 80.1
41.8
2.0
1995
45.4
62.9 1.4
69.8 53.6
26.1
2.7
1998/99
49.0
49.1 1.0
55.7 46.5
41.1
1.4
2002
35.0
48.0 1.4
57.0 40.0
17.0
3.4
Haiti
1994/95
83.2
88.9 1.1
95.2 78.4
75.6
1.3
2000
87.0
90.5 1.0
90.9 97.5
55.9
1.6
Honduras
1996 (c)
33.0
37.0 1.1
43.0 30.1
24.0
1.8
2001 (d)
29.0
38.0 1.3
63.0 30.1
18.0
3.5
Mexico
1987
41.6
79.2 1.9
82.9 58.1
27.6
3.0
Nicaragua
1992/93 (e) 51.0
68.0 1.3
73.0 46.0
29.0
2.5
1997/98
40.0
51.1 1.3
62.1 45.3
31.0
2.0
2001
27.7
42.8 1.5
54.2 34.4
21.7
2.5
Paraguay
1990
32.6
38.7 1.2
52.2 39.1
22.9
2.3
1995/96
29.0
37.0 1.3
50.0 34.0
11.0
4.5
2004
28.0
31.0 1.1
–
–
–
–
Peru
1986
55.8 106.1 1.9
118.8 88.3
41.5
2.9
1992
47.5
89.9 1.9
100.0 83.2
33.9
2.9
1996
34.9
71.0 2.0
78.9 61.7
30.6
2.6
2000
28.4
60.3 2.1
73.4 53.5
27.4
2.7
Dominican Republic 1986
71.9
67.9 0.9
96.1 73.7
47.5
2.0
1991
37.2
54.4 1.5
46.8 54.1
25.9
1.8
1996
45.8
52.6 1.1
84.7 53.8
29.3
2.9
1999
35.3
39.1 1.1
34.7 50.6
17.9
1.9
2002
33.1
37.5 1.1
52.5 39.1
26.5
2.0
El Salvador
1985
57.6
82.4 1.4
99.7 64.2
24.9
4.0
1993 (d)
35.2
44.0 1.2
39.0 45.4
24.0
1.6
1998 (e)
27.0
41.0 1.5
41.0 34.2
…
…
2002/03
24.0
24.0 1.0
36.0 21.8
23.0
1.6
Trinidad
and Tobago
1987
34.2
27.9 0.8
69.0 24.2
38.5
1.8
(a) Women aged 15-44; (b) Nordeste; (c) 1991-1995; (d) 1996-2000; (e) 1982-1992.
Sources: ORC Macro, 2006. MEASURE DHS STAT compiler. http://www.measuredhs.com;
http://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/surveys/index.htm
90.6
86.6
73.5
67.8
84.0
93.3
48.1
38.7
27.0
30.8
24.4
22.1
65.2
40.0
30.0
29.0
79.2
57.2
49.1
44.0
87.1
89.4
36.0
34.0
56.4
60.0
45.2
35.3
35.9
33.0
–
79.1
63.7
49.9
43.2
70.1
44.4
48.6
36.8
34.6
70.9
41.0
35.0
24.0
30.5
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 608 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
608
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE A.29.– CHANGE IN THE PERCENTAGE OF THE LATIN AMERICAN POPULATION
LIVING IN TOWNS OF MORE THAN 20,000 INHABITANTS IN EACH COUNTRY (20 COUNTRIES)
Country
1950s
1960s
Census
1970s
1980s
Argentina
50.8
60.1
66.9
Bolivia
19.7
–
34.1
Brazil
28.8
28.9
40.7
Chile
47.1
55.1
62.0
Colombia
22.5
37.2
45.5
Costa Rica
18.4
22.8
30.8
Cuba
38.3
–
43.8
Ecuador
18.0
27.7
35.3
Guatemala
14.5
19.2
22.2
Haiti
15.5
–
13.7
Honduras
16.8
11.5
20.5
Mexico
29.3
36.9
45.7
Nicaragua
15.2
23.0
29.6
Panama
28.2
34.6
39.1
Paraguay
19.6
23.0
27.6
Peru
15.9
30.3
42.0
Dominican Republic
11.1
18.7
30.5
El Salvador
14.7
19.5
21.9
Uruguay
66.9
66.9
69.9
Venezuela
38.7
52.7
63.5
Sources: CELADE (2005) and DEPUALC database.
71.0
–
52.2
68.5
55.1
33.8
47.9
42.5
22.6
17.4
28.0
52.8
–
43.6
33.1
49.9
41.9
–
71.8
70.5
1990s
2000s
74.9
49.6
58.4
72.1
59.2
33.8
47.9
48.0
24.3
17.4
28.0
57.1
41.0
46.8
39.0
55.2
45.2
35.9
74.3
71.5
76.5
54.1
64.5
75.4
60.2
49.2
–
54.7
32.5
–
34.7
60.7
–
52.7
44.6
–
52.7
–
–
74.3
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 609 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
609
TABLE A.30.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ILLITERACY RATE
IN THE POPULATION AGED 15 OR ABOVE IN 2000 (%)
Country
Males
Illiteracy rate (%)
Females
Mesoamerica
Costa Rica
4.5
Guatemala
24.0
Honduras
25.1
Mexico
6.7
Nicaragua
33.8
Panama
7.5
El Salvador
18.5
Caribbean
3.5
Netherlands Antilles
5.5
Bahamas
0.3
Barbados
6.7
Belize
3.2
Cuba
–
Dominica
–
Grenada
–
Guadeloupe
–
Guyana
1.1
French Guiana
–
Haiti
48.0
Jamaica
17.1
Martinique
–
Puerto Rico
6.4
Dominican Republic
16.3
Saint Lucia
–
Suriname
–
Trinidad and Tobago
1.1
Andean countries
Bolivia
8.1
Colombia
8.4
Ecuador
6.8
Peru
5.3
Venezuela
7.0
Southern Cone and Brazil
Argentina
3.2
Brazil
13.0
Chile
4.1
Paraguay
5.6
Uruguay
2.9
Overall
10.1
Source: Social Indicators and Statistics Database (BADEINSO),
Institute for Statistics.
Overall
4.4
38.9
25.0
10.9
33.3
8.8
23.9
4.4
31.5
25.0
8.8
33.5
8.1
21.3
3.4
3.7
0.3
6.8
3.4
–
–
–
1.9
–
52.2
9.3
–
6.0
16.3
–
–
2.3
3.5
4.6
0.3
6.8
3.3
–
–
–
1.5
–
50.2
13.1
–
6.2
16.3
–
–
1.7
20.8
8.4
10.1
14.8
8.0
14.6
8.4
8.4
10.1
7.5
3.2
3.2
13.2
13.1
4.4
4.2
7.8
6.7
2.0
2.4
12.1
11.1
based on data from the UNESCO
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 610 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
610
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE A.31.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PERCENTAGE OF PERSONS HAVING
COMPLETED PRIMARY SCHOOLING, BY COHORT GROUP (18 COUNTRIES)
Sub-region
and country
Years of birth
1980- 1975- 1970- 1965- 1960- 1955- 1950- 1945- 1940- 1935- Before
1984 1979 1974 1969 1964 1959 1954 1949 1944 1939 1935
Mesoamerica
Costa Rica
88.7 87.2 84.6 86.1 85.9 87.1
Guatemala
60.8 55.9 52.2 41.2 38.4 36.9
Honduras
68.4 66.7 61.7 59.5 51.5 45.9
Mexico
92.6 89.7 86.7 84.0 78.0 69.3
Nicaragua
64.5 62.5 60.2 55.2 50.9 46.0
Panama
91.5 89.8 89.3 88.9 88.2 86.4
El Salvador
74.3 72.8 9.0 62.3 57.4 54.2
Caribbean
Dominican Republic 81.9 81.0 676.3 76.2 71.6 63.6
Andean countries
Bolivia
81.6 77.0 67.1 61.8 56.7 50.4
Colombia
89.7 88.4 85.6 82.1 78.8 75.4
Ecuador
90.8 90.8 89.8 87.6 82.6 78.8
Peru
89.4 88.6 85.4 77.6 66.7 61.9
Venezuela
90.2 90.0 88.3 87.1 85.1 82.4
Southern Cone
and Brazil
Argentina
96.6 97.5 97.1 95.9 94.0 92.5
Brazil
87.6 85.6 82.2 79.2 76.3 74.0
Chile
97.0 96.0 95.5 92.0 90.1 87.7
Paraguay
80.8 80.7 78.3 72.8 69.1 59.5
Uruguay
96.3 97.1 96.2 95.8 94.6 94.2
Overall
88.1 86.4 83.7 80.6 76.7 72.8
Source: ECLAC (2005) from OREALC-UNESCO (2004).
79.3
28.8
40.9
64.1
39.4
82.5
46.1
73.1
25.6
32.4
53.5
28.7
74.4
40.4
61.1
20.4
26.8
45.9
23.7
70.8
35.4
52.4
15.4
21.5
37.1
22.7
61.1
28.0
35.7
11.7
13.9
27.8
14.5
50.5
19.4
56.9
47.8
35.1
34.3
23.1
46.9
68.7
71.5
52.5
78.4
39.8
63.0
66.6
44.0
73.7
33.4
56.3
57.9
35.6
64.6
31.4
48.4
50.1
28.0
56.8
19.4
42.7
41.2
22.4
38.7
89.9
68.6
82.9
56.9
90.9
67.5
85.6
60.6
74.4
47.7
86.2
59.8
82.7
53.8
69.8
42.4
84.0
53.0
81.0
45.9
61.6
36.4
76.4
45.8
73.7
36.8
53.4
22.7
64.1
37.3
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 611 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
611
TABLE A.32.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PERCENTAGE OF MEN HAVING
COMPLETED PRIMARY SCHOOLING, BY COHORT (18 COUNTRIES)
Sub-region
and country
Years of birth
1980- 1975- 1970- 1965- 1960- 1955- 1950- 1945- 1940- 1935- Before
1984 1979 1974 1969 1964 1959 1954 1949 1944 1939 1935
Mesoamerica
Costa Rica
87.3 86.5 84.8 84.3 85.9 86.9
Guatemala
64.8 61.5 60.7 48.5 44.0 47.0
Honduras
64.3 63.4 59.7 57.6 49.8 45.6
Mexico
92.2 90.5 88.3 84.5 81.7 71.6
Nicaragua
58.6 59.8 57.7 53.1 53.3 50.8
Panama
90.9 90.3 88.8 88.9 87.9 86.6
El Salvador
73.6 74.8 70.5 66.3 61.9 58.5
Caribbean
Dominican Republic 77.6 77.7 73.0 71.6 70.0 63.6
Andean countries
Bolivia
82.4 81.8 71.2 71.0 66.8 61.4
Colombia
88.0 87.0 84.2 81.6 77.6 73.8
Ecuador
90.1 91.3 90.1 88.8 85.2 82.4
Peru
91.0 91.9 90.0 82.7 72.9 69.5
Venezuela
87.8 87.6 86.0 85.5 83.6 82.0
Southern Cone
and Brazil
Argentina
95.8 96.8 96.7 95.0 94.6 91.6
Brazil
85.3 83.0 80.0 77.0 74.5 73.2
Chile
96.6 95.8 94.9 91.3 89.7 87.4
Paraguay
77.4 79.7 79.8 73.8 71.3 61.1
Uruguay
95.6 96.5 95.6 95.4 94.7 93.6
Overall
86.8 85.7 83.4 80.2 77.4 73.8
Source: ECLAC (2005) from OREALC-UNESCO (2004).
81.1
31.1
43.7
70.4
34.6
82.5
53.6
75.9
32.5
34.6
57.5
35.8
75.3
50.4
64.5
21.2
28.0
48.4
22.7
69.8
40.6
56.6
18.9
23.2
39.3
28.3
60.6
33.9
37.2
11.2
14.5
30.5
12.3
49.9
21.3
55.8
52.5
37.9
37.9
24.5
56.2
69.7
74.5
59.8
78.1
46.6
64.1
71.2
54.8
75.4
44.3
56.3
61.1
45.0
67.5
38.7
49.7
53.3
34.5
60.3
24.3
43.6
42.2
27.5
43.6
89.0
68.5
84.2
60.0
89.7
69.4
85.6
62.0
75.4
48.9
85.1
62.6
82.1
54.9
71.9
48.9
84.3
55.1
83.4
48.2
63.0
37.2
75.8
48.2
76.9
37.4
55.0
25.6
63.9
38.6
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 612 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
612
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
TABLE A.33.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN HAVING
COMPLETED PRIMARY SCHOOLING, BY COHORT (18 COUNTRIES)
Sub-region
and country
Years of birth
1980- 1975- 1970- 1965- 1960- 1955- 1950- 1945- 1940- 1935- Before
1984 1979 1974 1969 1964 1959 1954 1949 1944 1939 1935
Mesoamerica
Costa Rica
90.3 87.9 84.4 87.9 85.9 87.4
Guatemala
57.2 50.8 44.0 34.2 33.7 27.8
Honduras
72.5 69.6 63.4 61.1 52.8 46.2
Mexico
93.0 88.9 85.3 83.6 74.7 67.4
Nicaragua
70.8 65.1 62.7 57.0 48.8 41.7
Panama
92.2 89.3 89.7 88.9 88.5 86.2
El Salvador
75.0 71.0 67.8 59.0 53.9 50.9
Caribbean
Dominican Republic 86.7 84.6 79.4 80.2 73.2 63.6
Andean countries
Bolivia
80.7 72.6 63.4 53.5 47.9 40.8
Colombia
91.5 89.6 86.9 82.5 79.8 76.9
Ecuador
91.4 90.4 89.5 86.6 80.1 75.5
Peru
87.8 85.3 81.3 73.0 61.2 54.8
Venezuela
92.7 92.3 90.6 88.7 86.6 82.8
Southern Cone
and Brazil
Argentina
97.4 98.1 97.6 96.8 93.4 93.3
Brazil
89.9 88.1 84.2 81.1 78.0 74.7
Chile
97.4 96.2 96.1 92.5 90.4 88.0
Paraguay
84.7 81.6 76.9 71.9 67.0 58.2
Uruguay
97.0 97.6 96.9 96.2 94.5 94.8
Overall
89.4 87.2 84.0 80.9 76.1 72.0
Source: ECLAC (2005) from OREALC-UNESCO (2004).
77.6
26.6
38.5
58.1
43.4
82.6
40.4
70.4
19.5
30.3
50.1
22.1
73.6
31.9
58.1
19.7
25.7
43.7
24.5
71.9
30.9
48.6
12.0
20.0
34.9
16.7
61.7
23.2
34.4
12.0
13.4
25.4
16.3
51.1
18.0
57.9
43.2
32.8
30.9
21.9
37.3
67.9
68.6
45.7
78.8
32.6
62.0
62.0
34.0
72.0
22.1
56.4
54.5
27.2
61.9
24.4
47.2
46.9
22.0
53.5
15.3
42.0
40.2
17.4
34.7
90.6
68.7
81.7
53.7
91.9
65.7
85.5
59.3
73.5
46.3
87.3
57.2
83.2
52.8
67.6
36.6
83.7
51.0
78.9
43.9
60.5
35.8
76.9
43.6
71.6
36.2
52.3
20.2
64.2
36.4
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 613 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
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613
TABLE A.34.– LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: RATIO OF FEMALE TO MALE
PRIMARY SCHOOLING RATES BY COHORT GROUP (F/M) (18 COUNTRIES)
Sub-region
and country
Years of birth
1980- 1975- 1970- 1965- 1960- 1955- 1950- 1945- 1940- 1935- Before
1984 1979 1974 1969 1964 1959 1954 1949 1944 1939 1935
Mesoamerica
Costa Rica
1.03 1.02 1.00 1.04 1.00 1.01
Guatemala
0.88 0.83 0.72 0.71 0.77 0.59
Honduras
1.13 1.10 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.01
Mexico
1.01 0.98 0.97 0.99 0.91 0.94
Nicaragua
1.21 1.09 1.09 1.07 0.92 0.82
Panama
1.01 0.99 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00
El Salvador
1.02 0.95 0.96 0.89 0.87 0.87
Caribbean
Dominican Republic 1.12 1.09 1.09 1.12 1.05 1.00
Andean countries
Bolivia
0.98 0.89 0.89 0.75 0.72 0.66
Colombia
1.04 1.03 1.03 1.01 1.03 1.04
Ecuador
1.01 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.94 0.92
Peru
0.96 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.84 0.79
Venezuela
1.06 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.01
Southern Cone
and Brazil
Argentina
1.02 1.01 1.01 1.02 0.99 1.02
Brazil
1.05 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.02
Chile
1.01 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01
Paraguay
1.09 1.02 0.96 0.97 0.94 0.95
Uruguay
1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.01
Overall
1.03 1.02 1.01 1.01 0.98 0.98
Source: ECLAC(2005) from OREALC-UNESCO (2004).
0.96
0.86
0.88
0.83
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.93
0.60
0.88
0.87
0.62
0.98
0.63
0.90
0.93
0.92
0.90
1.08
1.03
0.76
0.86
0.63
0.86
0.89
0.59
1.02
0.68
0.92
1.07
0.92
0.83
1.33
1.02
0.85
1.04
0.82
0.87
0.82
0.89
0.66
0.97
0.92
0.76
1.01
0.70
0.97
0.87
0.62
0.95
0.50
1.00
0.89
0.60
0.92
0.63
0.95
0.88
0.64
0.89
0.63
0.96
0.95
0.63
0.80
1.02
1.00
0.97
0.90
1.02
0.95
1.00
0.96
0.97
0.95
1.03
0.91
1.01
0.96
0.94
0.75
0.99
0.93
0.95
0.91
0.96
0.96
1.01
0.90
0.93
0.97
0.95
0.79
1.00
0.94
5_6(4)ok_America.fm Page 614 Vendredi, 6. avril 2007 1:31 13
614
J. M. GUZMÁN et al.
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G UZMÁN José Miguel, R ODRÍGUEZ Jorge, M ARTÍNEZ Jorge, C ONTRERAS Juan Manuel,
G ONZÁLEZ Daniela – The Demography of Latin America and the Caribbean since 1950.
Covering Latin America and the Caribbean (more than fifty states and territories,
564 million inhabitants), this chronicle gives an overview of the main socio-demographic and
health developments in the region since the 1950s. It includes a summary of census and survey
data on each country, with statistics on population size and structure, fertility, nuptiality,
mortality, migration, urbanization and education. For several decades, Latin America and the
Caribbean have been engaged in a rapid process of demographic transition, attributable to the
fertility decline from the early 1970s and a decrease in mortality which raised average life
expectancy by 20 years between 1950 and 2000. It now stands at 68 years for men and 75 years
for women. The rate of natural increase has slowed down rapidly (1.4% in 2000-2005), while
net migration is affected by more massive emigration to destinations outside the region. Against
a backdrop of general fertility decline (2.6 children per woman in 2000-2005), the models of
early family formation have persisted. Among the so-called developing regions of the world,
Latin America and the Caribbean have the highest level of urbanization (77% in 2005). Another
specific feature of the countries in this region is the onset of population ageing, a phenomenon
yet to emerge in sub-Saharan Africa, and in the Arab World and the Middle East, the regions
covered in our two previous chronicles ( Population, English Edition 5, 2004 and 5-6, 2005).
G UZMÁN José Miguel, R ODRÍGUEZ Jorge, M ARTÍNEZ Jorge, C ONTRERAS Juan Manuel,
G ONZÁLEZ Daniela – La demografia de América latina y del Caribe desde 1950.
Este artículo, dedicado a América latina y el Caribe (un poco más de cincuenta Estados
y territorios, 564 millones de habitantes), propone una síntesis de los grandes cambios
sociodemográficos y sanitarios desde los años 1950 y a la vez, un balance estadístico que reúne
los datos de los censos y de las grandes encuestas sobre cada país. En él se examinan en
particular los efectivos y las estructuras de la población, la fecundidad, la nupcialidad, la
mortalidad, las migraciones, la urbanización y la educación. América Latina y el Caribe
experimentan desde hace varios decenios un proceso rápido de transición demográfica, debido
a un descenso de la fecundidad a partir del principio de los años 1970 y a un retroceso de la
mortalidad que ha conducido a un alza media de la esperanza de vida de 20 años entre 1950 y
2000, para alcanzar 68 años en los hombres y 75 años en las mujeres. El ritmo de crecimiento
natural ha disminuido en gran medida (1,4% en 2000-2005), mientras que el saldo migratorio se
ve afectado por una mayor emigración hacia destinos extra-regionales. En una situación de baja
generalizada de la fecundidad (2,6 niños por mujer en 2000-2005), los modelos de entrada
precoz a la vida familiar persisten. América latina y el Caribe presentan la tasa de urbanización
más elevada del mundo en desarrollo. Otra especificidad de los países de esta región del mundo
es que su estructura de edad comienza a estar afectada por envejecimiento, el cual es todavía
poco aparentes en los países de África subsahariana y del mundo árabe y de Medio Oriente
descritos en las anteriores crónicas ( Population , 5, 2004 y 5-6, 2005).
G UZMÁN José Miguel, R ODRÍGUEZ Jorge, M ARTÍNEZ Jorge, C ONTRERAS Juan Manuel,
G ONZÁLEZ Daniela – La démographie de l’Amérique Latine et des Caraïbes depuis 1950.
Consacrée à l’Amérique latine et les Caraïbes (un peu plus de cinquante Etats et
territoires, 564 millions d’habitants), cette chronique propose à la fois une synthèse des grands
changements socio-démographiques et sanitaires depuis les années 1950, et un bilan statistique
rassemblant les données des recensements et des grandes enquêtes sur chaque pays. Y sont
notamment examinés les effectifs et les structures de la population, la fécondité, la nuptialité, la
mortalité, les migrations, l’urbanisation et l’éducation. L’Amérique latine et les Caraïbes
connaissent depuis plusieurs décennies un processus de transition démographique rapide,
imputable à une baisse de la fécondité à partir du début des années 1970 et à un recul de la
mortalité qui a conduit à une hausse moyenne de l’espérance de vie de 20 ans entre 1950 et 2000,
pour atteindre 68 ans chez les hommes et 75 ans chez les femmes. Le rythme de croissance
naturelle a fortement diminué (1,4% en 2000-2005), tandis que le solde migratoire est affecté
par une plus forte émigration vers des destinations extra-régionales. Dans un contexte de baisse
généralisée de la fécondité (2,6 enfant par femmes en 2000-2005), les modèles d’entrée précoce
dans la vie familiale persistent. Parmi les régions dites en développement, L’Amérique latine et
les Caraïbes présentent le taux d’urbanisation le plus élevé du monde en développement (EVA).
Une autre spécificité des pays de cette région du monde est que leur structure d’âge commence
a être marquée par les effets du vieillissement, qui en revanche sont encore peu apparents dans
les pays d’Afrique sub-saharienne et du monde arabe et du Moyen Orient décrits dans les
précédentes chroniques ( Population , 5, 2004 et 5-6, 2005).
José Miguel GUZMÁN, CELADE-Division de Poblacion, CEPAL, Av. Dag Hammarksjold 3477,
Vitacura, Santiago de Chile, Chile, Tel.: 56 2 210 2087, e-mail: [email protected]