Forest Ecology and Management 6154 (2002) 1–11 Surface wildfires in central Amazonia: short-term impact on forest structure and carbon loss Torbjørn Haugaasen*, Jos Barlow, Carlos A. Peres Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK Received 8 November 2001; received in revised form 15 July 2002; accepted 7 October 2002 Abstract Changes in forest structure were examined 10–15 months after an unprecedented understorey wildfire burnt previously undisturbed primary forest in central Brazilian Amazonia, following the severe 1997–1998 El Niño dry season. On the basis of 20 0.25 ha plots (10 m 250 m) in both burnt and unburnt forest, we found marked differences in the overall live biomass, canopy openness and understorey vegetation. On average, 36% of all trees equal to or greater than 10 cm DBH were found to be dead in the burnt forest, and there was also a near-complete mortality in all pre-burn saplings. Using an allometric equation to predict biomass mortality we estimate that the tree mortality rates found would commit an additional 25.5 t C/ha to be released from these BFs. The dramatic increase of aboveground dead biomass in BF is of major global concern because of the increased flux of CO2 to the atmosphere, which has a role in enhancing the greenhouse effect and promoting climate change. # 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. Keywords: Aboveground biomass; Carbon emissions; El Niño; Fire disturbance; Global warming; Surface fires 1. Introduction Tropical forests are widely known to harbour the highest species diversities in the world, but are currently under enormous pressure from rising human populations (Pahari and Murai, 1999; Cincotta et al., 2000), growing agricultural practices (Dale and Pearson, 1997), logging (Nepstad et al., 1999a,b; Putz et al., 2001) and other disturbances such as hunting (Robinson and Bennett, 2000; Peres, 2000). In the Brazilian Amazonia alone, a forest area the size of France has been cleared in the last three decades (Fearnside, * Corresponding author. Tel.: þ44-1603-591099; fax: þ44-1603-507719. E-mail address: [email protected] (T. Haugaasen). 1999), affecting an area nearly twice as large through edge effects and forest fragmentation (Skole and Tucker, 1993). In these areas, synergistic interactions between structural and non-structural forms of disturbance continue to erode biodiversity (Peres, 2001). Since the mid 1980s, however, tropical forests have been haunted by yet another threat which has steadily increased in importance as greater areas of forest become affected each year—surface wildfires. Tropical rain forests are normally thought to be fireresistant environments because of high atmospheric and soil moisture levels, and major wildfires have been historically rare events (Turcq et al., 1998). Charcoal dating evidence suggests that catastrophic fires have occurred in the Amazon only four times in the past two millennia, at 1500, 1000, 700 and 400 BP (Sanford 0378-1127/02/$ – see front matter # 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. PII: S 0 3 7 8 - 1 1 2 7 ( 0 2 ) 0 0 5 4 8 - 0 2 T. Haugaasen et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 6154 (2002) 1–11 et al., 1985) whilst the pollen record suggests that there was a period of fires lasting from 7000 to 4000 years BP (Turcq et al., 1998). However, as a result of recent climatic oscillations and large-scale disturbances such as logging and fragmentation, fire is becoming an increasingly common pantropical phenomenon (Goldhammer, 1999). In Amazonia, surface wildfires threaten a much greater area of forest than does deforestation per se (Nepstad et al., 1999a; Cochrane, 2001), even though current deforestation rates in the Amazon are the fastest anywhere (Whitmore, 1997). In contrast to the far more detectable canopy fires, surface fires rarely exceed 10–30 cm in height under normal fuel and humidity conditions, burning the fine and course litter on the forest floor (Holdsworth and Uhl, 1997; Cochrane and Schulze, 1999; Nepstad et al., 1999a). However, these apparently innocuous fires have been shown to have serious detrimental effects on both the forest structure (Peres, 1999; Barbosa and Fearnside, 1999) and the vertebrate fauna (Kinnaird and O’Brien, 1998; Haugaasen, 2000; Barlow et al., 2002; Peres et al., in press), because of their extremely rare occurrence in evolutionary time (Uhl and Kauffman, 1990). By killing a substantial amount of the forest biomass, the fires increase the carbon flux to the atmosphere (Barbosa and Fearnside, 1999), enhancing the greenhouse effect and promoting climate change. In particular, this source of carbon release has been severely underestimated or disregarded in estimates of the carbon contribution to the atmosphere associated with land cover changes in Amazonia (Fearnside, 1997a; Laurance et al., 1998). In this paper we present tree mortality data and subsequent changes in forest structure following a large surface fire in central Brazilian Amazonia. We provide estimates of the aboveground dead biomass (AGDB) resulting from this unprecedented wildfire, and estimate the amount of carbon that will eventually be released from these fires (committed carbon emissions). We also discuss the degradation and impoverishment of tropical forests in light of potentially irreversible ecosystem transitions given a scenario of more severe or more frequent El Niño events. Finally, we consider whether accidental fires are likely to become a permanent feature of many previously undisturbed neotropical forest ecosystems. 2. Methods 2.1. Study area The study was conducted on both banks of the Rio Maró, a tributary of the Rio Arapiuns which flows into the mouth of the Rio Tapajós, westernmost Pará, Brazil (028440 S; 558410 W; see Barlow et al. (2002) or Peres et al. (in press) for a map of the study area and sample plots). The work took place from October 1998 to March 1999, around 1 year after an accidental wildfire swept through large parts of the forest on both sides of the Rio Maró. Average annual rainfall at the nearest meteorological station (Santarém) is 2041 mm epr year (range ¼ 12872538 mm per year 1992–1997; INFRAERO, 1998), with a pronounced dry season typically lasting 3–5 months, normally from July to November. The recent fires occurred in November–December of 1997, at the end of the longest dry season in living memory. A rainless period of 110 days, linked to the 1997–1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event led to leaf abscission and permitted sunlight to penetrate the understorey, allowing normally fire-resistant forests to become flammable. The soils in this region are typically sandy (podzolic) and highly permeable, which further increases the risk of breaching the forest flammability threshold (Hammond and ter Steege, 1998). 2.2. Data collection Data were obtained within 20 0.25 ha plots (10 m 250 m) located in burnt and unburnt forest across the Maró river basin. Sixteen plots were placed >500 m from the clearly distinguishable fireline, and were equally split between burnt and unburnt forest on both banks of the river. A further four plots were placed perpendicular to, and cutting across the fireline so that each half of these plots (0.125 ha) lay in either burnt or unburnt forest. The four forest treatments are hereafter referred to as BF (burnt forest), UF (unburnt forest), BFI (burnt forest interface) and UFI (unburnt forest interface). In order to compare the BF and UF plots away from the fireline with those cutting across the fireline interface, tree and basal area densities are expressed on a per hectare basis. Biomass and carbon values were converted likewise. T. Haugaasen et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 6154 (2002) 1–11 3 Fig. 1. A schematic diagram of the typical sampling protocol undertaken at each forest plot. Within each plot a number of habitat variables were recorded (see Fig. 1 for a schematic diagram of the sampling area). The diameter of all trees 10 cm DBH (diameter at breast height, or above tallest buttress) with at least half of their basal stem falling inside the plot were measured, and their mortality (defined as the death of all aboveground tissue) was assessed based on an examination of cambial damage to the basal tree trunk and the drying and abscission of leaves. All saplings taller than 1 m were measured within a 1 m 100 m (100 m2) subplot (or two 1 m 50 m subplots in the interface plots), and were categorised into 10 different size classes of 1 cm (up to 10 cm DBH). Sapling mortality was also defined as above. Fallen trees and branches 10 cm in diameter that lay within the plot were also measured (diameter and length within plot) and categorised as new or old falls. Tree trunks and branches on the ground were classified as recently fallen if they had obvious signs of being relatively fresh (e.g. leaves still attached), which in BF presumably fell in the aftermath of the fires (post-burn). Canopy openness was quantified with the use of a convex spherical densiometer at 24 evenly spaced points within each plot (with 4 readings taken per point; see Lemmon, 1957). Regeneration of forest floor vegetation was assessed within 2 m 2 m quadrats laid to the left-hand side of each 250 m transect at each point where a canopy cover reading was taken (24 quadrats per plot; see Fig. 1). Within each quadrat the total percentage cover of undergrowth vegetation was estimated. Understorey openness was measured using a 2.5 m graduated pole of 4 cm in diameter held vertically 15 m to the side of the transect, which was examined with a pair of 10 40 binoculars by an observer stood on the transect (Fig. 1). A total of 40 readings were recorded within each plot corresponding to the number of 10 cm pole sections (range: 0–25) that were clearly visible. 2.3. Biomass and carbon estimates Biomass estimates were calculated using two equations. We used the regression equation Y ¼ expð2:134 þ 2:530 lnðDÞÞ where Y is the biomass per tree in kg, and D the DBH in cm (Brown, 1997). We also used an allometric model for aboveground dry biomass (AGDB): DBH AGDB ¼ exp 3:323 þ 2:546 ln 100 600 derived from 319 destructively sampled trees ranging from 5 to 120 cm DBH in a structurally similar Amazonian terra firme (upland) forest located north 4 T. Haugaasen et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 6154 (2002) 1–11 plots was pooled, and split into two categories according to whether the forest had burnt or not. This pooling of all forest plots minimised the stochastic variation in tree densities inherent within relatively small 0.25 ha plots, and was necessary to increase the number of trees sampled in the larger (and hence rarer) DBH classes. Data for saplings was treated similarly. Paired-t-tests were used to compare the results of the two biomass equations. of Manaus, Brazil (Santos, 1996). While there are many potential problems with using DBH to estimate forest biomass and carbon (e.g. Fearnside, 1997b), the Santos equation formulated through the destructive harvesting of 319 trees near Manaus is considered to be the most representative of the Brazilian Amazon, being further supported by results from another site in eastern Amazonia (Araujo et al., 1997). We therefore focus our discussion on the results from this equation, although include the Brown equation for its comparative value. Following Fearnside (1997a) and Brown (1997), the carbon content of biomass was assumed to be 50%. 3. Results 3.1. Tree mortality 2.4. Data analysis A total of 2643 standing trees were measured in the 20 forest plots, with 1341 being found in the UF (2.5 ha) and 1302 in BF (2.5 ha). The abundance of trees was strongly size-dependent, and both forest types showed a reverse J distribution curve for the tree assemblage as a whole (Fig. 2a). Trees smaller than 20 cm DBH accounted for 74% of all trees in all BF and One-way ANOVAs (with Tukey’s HSD post-hoc test) were used to test for differences in the forest structure between the four treatments (Table 1). Data were checked for normality, and subsequently left untransformed. In order to conduct the examination of size-dependent mortality (Fig. 2), data from all Table 1 Habitat data obtained from four groups of forest plots (*, y: subsets from Tukey’s HSD)a Mean ( S.E.) per plot in d.f. F P UF ðn ¼ 8Þ UFI ðn ¼ 4Þ BFI ðn ¼ 4Þ BF ðn ¼ 8Þ No. trees per hectare No. trees dead per hectare Basal area per hectare Basal area dead per hectare 533.5 24.0* 121.2 6.2* 19.2 3.1 7.3 1.2 548.0 28.0* 110.9 6.5* 21.8 4.0 5.6 1.3 528.0 152.0y 123.1 17.8y 64.7 41.2 28.1 2.1 519.0 184.0y 105.9 25.7y 20.8 9.2 9.2 2.5 3, 3, 3, 3, 20 20 20 20 0.16 34.69 0.49 24.53 0.92 <0.001 0.69 <0.001 Brown equation Total biomass per hectare Dead biomass per hectare Potential Carbon loss per hectare 349.9 16.9* 8.5* 33.2 4.5 2.3 285.4 15.1* 7.6* 23.2 3.5 1.8 342.4 38.6*,y 19.3*,y 99.1 6.6 3.3 282.6 593*,y 29.7y 32.9 7.9 4 3, 20 3, 20 3, 20 0.67 11.18 11.18 0.58 <0.001 <0.001 Santos equation Total biomass per hectare Dead biomass per hectare Potential Carbon loss per hectare 424.3 20.5* 10.2* 40.7 5.6 2.8 344.6 18.2* 9.1* 28.4 4.3 2.1 414.5 120.7 46.4*,y 8 23.2*,y 4 341.7 71.4y 35.7y 40.1 9.6 4.8 3, 20 3, 20 3, 20 0.67 10.93 10.93 0.58 <0.001 <0.001 45.7 0.8* 4.4* 4.7* 20.6 4.5 9.1 0.4 1.0 0.6 3.5 0.8 50.1 2.3* 3.1* 5.5* 25.7 6.6 8.5 1.7 0.7 0.5 3.6 1.3 45.2 10*,y 76y 19.2y 48.5 9.1 5.9 2.8 5.7 2.1 6.9 1.2 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 0.81 6.58 47.03 11.34 4.59 2.98 0.51 0.003 <0.001 <0.001 0.01 0.06 Other habitat data All fallen wood per hectare (m3) Newly fallen wood per hectare (m3) % Saplings dead % Canopy gap % Ground vegetation cover Understorey vegetation openness 30.4 12.9y 63.1y 19.5y 50.9 9.6 3.2 3.3 13.2 6.2 15.7 3 20 20 20 20 20 20 a UF: unburnt forest >500 m from the fireline; UFI: unburnt forest plots adjoining and perpendicular to the fireline; BF: burnt forest >500 m from the fireline; BFI: burnt forest plots adjoining and perpendicular to the fireline. T. Haugaasen et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 6154 (2002) 1–11 5 Fig. 2. (a) Frequency distribution of the size of standing trees expressed in terms of DBH in all BF and UF plots. Relationship between tree DBH for UF and BF plots and tree survival (b), and (c) the estimated AGDB, using both the Brown (1997) and Santos (1996) equations. UF plots. There was no significant difference between the mean overall number of trees per hectare or the mean basal area per hectare in any forest type (Table 1). As expected, however, tree mortality, was clearly greater in BF plots; 36% of all trees in BF plots were classified as dead, compared to only 4.5% of those in UF plots. The number of dead trees per hectare and the mean dead basal area per hectare were thus significantly greater in the BF plots than in the UF plots. Distance to the fireline did not appear 6 T. Haugaasen et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 6154 (2002) 1–11 to have a significant effect on tree mortality, and the interface plots were not significantly different from those >500 m from the fireline in either BF or UF (Table 1). In order to examine size-dependent mortality, all trees were classed according to their DBH. Within the BF, there was a strong positive relationship between the DBH class of the tree and the percentage of live trees (r 2 ¼ 0:77, F1;10 ¼ 33:7, P ¼< 0:001), with smaller stems succumbing to higher mortality (Fig. 2b). No such relationship was apparent in UF plots, where trees appeared to have a mortality peak around 30–35 cm DBH (Fig. 2b). 3.2. Sapling mortality Mortality of saplings averaged 76% in the eight BF plots and 63.1% in the four BFI plots. Both of these means were significantly different from the 3 to 4% background mortality rate found in the UF treatments (Table 1). The proportion of dead saplings in each DBH class, however, was not significantly related to stem diameter in either BF or UF plots (P < 0:5 in both the cases). 3.3. Fallen dead wood There was no significant difference between the total volume of fallen wood per hectare in the four plot categories (Table 1), though the mean values were variable, ranging from 30.4 to 50.1 m3 per hectare. However, the BFIs had a significantly greater number of recently fallen trees than either unburnt forest treatment (UF and UFI). 3.4. Canopy openness and understorey regeneration Canopy openness in all BF plots was significantly greater than that in UF (Table 1), this being largely explained by the high density of the leafless crowns of dead canopy trees left standing in the BF. Although there was significant differences in the percentage ground vegetation cover in the understorey, the Tukey’s post-hoc test showed that no treatment was significantly different from another. However, understorey vegetation cover was found to be significantly related to percentage canopy openness (Fig. 3). The regeneration of the BF understorey was highly variable in Fig. 3. Relationship between canopy openness and understorey vegetation cover for forest plots >500 m from the fireline. Error bars represent standard errors. Regression line was fitted to mean values. T. Haugaasen et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 6154 (2002) 1–11 7 terms of structure and species composition, though Cecropia spp., Palicourea guianensis (Rubiaceae), and Aparisthmium cordatum (Euphorbiaceae) were the most common pioneer tree species. Table 2 Mortality of individuals 10 DBH (n/ha) and aboveground biomass (t/ha) from five different studies in Amazonian Brazil 3.5. Forest biomass and potential carbon loss Dead % Dead Totals Dead % Dead Totals Dead % Dead Totals Dead % Dead Totals Dead % Dead Totals Using either the Brown or Santos equations to calculate tree biomass, there were no significant differences between the mean total biomass density across any of the forest treatment types (Table 1). However, there were significant differences between the mean dead biomass per hectare, with both equations displaying similar trends. The eight BF plots contained a significantly greater dead biomass per hectare than the UF and UFI, while the BFI was intermediate and did not differ significantly from any of the other forest treatments. Fig. 2c shows how the total AGDB is distributed among each DBH class comparing the two equations. The Santos equation added considerable tonnage to the biomass estimates, and the total estimates for both UF and BF from each equation were significantly different (mean Santos UF S:E: ¼ 424:3 40:7 ðn ¼ 8Þ; mean Brown UF S:E: ¼ 349:9 33:2 ðn ¼ 8Þ; paired-t ¼ 9:6, d:f: ¼ 7, P ¼< 0:001; mean Santos BF S:E: ¼ 341:7 40:1 ðn ¼ 8Þ; mean Brown BF S:E: ¼ 282:6 32:9 ðn ¼ 8Þ; pairedt ¼ 8:2, d:f: ¼ 7, P ¼< 0:001). The total potential carbon loss (due to the increase in dead AGDB) in BF plots was 3.5 times than that found in the equivalent UF plots, an increase of 25.5 t C/ha using the Santos equation. The difference across the interface was less dramatic, though the total potential loss in the BFI was still 2.5 times than that of the UFI, an increase of 14.1 t C/ha using the Santos equation. 4. Discussion 4.1. Tree mortality and biomass The mortality of 36% of all trees 10 cm DBH in the BF plots was 4.5 times greater than that reported for seven post-burn plots of 750 m2 at three forest sites in Roraima (Barbosa and Fearnside, 1999) but closely matches that of previously logged eastern Amazonian a Mortality (n/ha) Aboveground biomass (t/ha) Study 147 38 384 161 44 367 46 7.9 585 68 16 425 184 35.5 519 71 35.5 200 Cochrane and Schulze (1999) Holdsworth and Uhl (1997) 17.4 7.9 219.7 16.1 Barbosa and Fearnside (1999) 71.4a 20.9a 341.7a This study Santos et al. (1998) Numbers derived with the Santos equation. forests near Paragominas (Holdsworth and Uhl, 1997; Cochrane and Schulze, 1999; Table 2). This study thus shows that seasonal central Amazonian forests such as around the Maró can be severely affected by surface wildfires during strong El Niño events, even if their history of logging disturbance has been negligible. Mortality and AGDB estimates in this study may also have been underestimated. The study by Peres (1999) carried out in the same region immediately after the fires estimated a standing dead biomass at 43.3 t/ha, a figure almost 40% lower than our estimates, suggesting that there had been an increase in mortality in the following year. We may expect this increase in mortality to continue following exposure to sublethal thermal stress; other studies in both Amazonia (Holdsworth and Uhl, 1997) and Sumatra (Sunarto, 2000) have shown mortality to increase for up to 2 years after the initial fire disturbance as injured trees gradually succumb to infections of fungi or other pathogens, and eventually die whether standing or fallen. Furthermore, the occurrence of both visually and acoustically detected tree falls plots recorded during the time of the study was five times higher in the BF than UF (J. Barlow, unpublished data), further opening up the forest canopy and knocking over trees that had survived the initial fire. Another cause of underestimation comes from the exclusion of woody lianas and vines in 8 T. Haugaasen et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 6154 (2002) 1–11 this study. Despite being extremely susceptible to fire damage (Cochrane and Schulze, 1999), large (10 cm DBH) lianas were fairly rare in this region and were not considered here. Tree mortality in the BF plots appeared to be strongly size-dependent, with small stems (10– 20 cm DBH) in BF suffering higher mortality. Uhl and Kauffman (1990) suggest that this size-dependent mortality may be a consequence of differences in bark thickness, as thicker bark is better able to protect the cambium layer from heat stress. This is consistent with a recent study in the Arapiuns basin where bark thickness appeared to be an important morphological correlate of tree survival (Barlow et al., in press). In contrast, tree mortality in UF plots peaked at 30– 40 cm DBH, which was presumably due to other causes. 4.2. Edge and interface effects Initially we predicted that burn intensity (and hence tree mortality) may have been lower close to the fireline, as interviews with local people indicated that the fires had been reduced in intensity by the rains that eventually extinguished them. Furthermore, as edges are associated with an increase in tree mortality in tropical forest fragments (Mesquita et al., 1999) we also expected a higher mortality and treefall rate in the UFI close to the fireline. While we consider it noteworthy that these predictions were supported numerically (Table 1), this must be qualified by the small sample sizes at the interfaces, and the lack of statistical support. 4.3. Sapling mortality and understorey regeneration As expected from the size-dependent mortality of trees, mortality was very high amongst the pre-burn saplings in all BF plots matching other reports on postfire sapling mortality (Holdsworth and Uhl, 1997). Following the fires, the greatly increased light environment in the understorey seemed to favour the rapid growth of early successional tree species, although in other areas that had apparently been severely burned the growth of aggressive bamboo and sedges appeared to inhibit seedling regeneration, which is confirmed by findings elsewhere in the Amazon (Nepstad et al., 1991). 4.4. Positive feedback mechanisms One of the most alarming features of these fires is their potential to trigger a positive feedback system, potentially leading to the progressive impoverishment and degradation of vast expanses of tropical forest (Cochrane et al., 1999; Nepstad et al., 1999b). The high post-burn tree mortality significantly reduced canopy cover, and will therefore create a hotter and drier microclimate as more solar radiation passes through to the understorey, increasing the rate of fuel drying (Uhl and Buschbacher, 1985; Uhl and Kauffman, 1990; Holdsworth and Uhl, 1997; Nepstad et al., 1999b). Furthermore, the dead and dying trees that fall to the forest floor add to the combustible fuel layer. We calculate that nearly 14 m3 /ha of coarse fuel has been added to the forest floor in BF just 1 year after the fire, and the greatly augmented treefall rate suggests that much more will be added in the near future. Furthermore, given the standing and fallen dead trees, saplings and lianas, fuel continuity will be greatly enhanced from the forest floor up to the canopy. Combined with another prolonged dry season, these factors could increase the risk of a further fire in these forests. The resulting second burn is likely to be much more severe than the first, and Cochrane et al. (1999) expect up to 98% of all remaining trees to be susceptible to recurrent fires. Moreover, pioneer saplings may be no more likely to survive a second burn than non-pioneers (Cochrane and Schulze, 1999) meaning that if fire return rates are frequent enough, new regeneration will effectively be prevented from reaching maturity and these forest ecosystems will shift towards scrub-savannahs where arborescent plants will be far less prevalent. Indeed, our experience in forest areas that local people report to have burnt twice support these predictions, as they are heavily dominated by bamboo (Guadua spp.), with very few standing trees remaining (J. Barlow, unpublished data). Without drastic fire prevention measures aimed at excluding fire from local agricultural systems, it seems unlikely that these forests will ever recover in time to prevent a subsequent fire. Many years of regrowth are necessary for BFs to recover the fire resistance of primary forests (Cochrane and Schulze, 1998) because tall trees are needed to establish the full shade and moist microclimate typical of the primary forest interior. Selectively logged forests have been found to take T. Haugaasen et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 6154 (2002) 1–11 5–6 years (Mason, 1996) and 7–12 years (Johns, 1989) to return to approximately pre-disturbance conditions and we could expect a similar or greater time-span after fire disturbance. Therefore, the evidence that El Niño events are increasing in frequency and severity in recent years (Trenberth and Hoar, 1996; Timmermann et al., 1999) does not bode well for the future of these forests. 4.5. Carbon loss Substantial carbon loss is derived from surface wildfires through the long-term decomposition of unburnt dead biomass and the initial combustion of dead leaves, twigs and branches on the forest floor, with fine branches and the leaf litter making up as much as 70% of all fuel on the forest floor (Chambers et al., 2000). However, the small litter and rootmat on the forest floor comprise only around 3.7–8.0% of the aboveground biomass (Kauffman et al., 1995) and saplings and small trees (<10 cm DBH) account for only 6.2% of the total AGDB resulting from a surface fire in our study region (Peres, 1999). We therefore emphasise the potential (or committed) carbon loss from the large tree mortality (10 cm DBH), which is likely to be far more important to the overall residual fuel load. In the absence of a subsequent fire, carbon will be released from the standing and fallen dead wood through bacterial decomposition and termite activity, which occurs largely over the first decade following death (Melillo et al., 1996; Fearnside, 1997a). Although there was an almost 8-fold increase in tree mortality in the BF plots, the size-dependent mortality (which selected for smaller trees; see Fig. 2b) meant that this only resulted in a 3.5-fold increase in the amount of dead biomass and potential carbon loss. Our AGDB estimates closely resemble those found by Cochrane and Schulze (1999) in eastern Amazonia, but far exceeds those from other studies such as Barbosa and Fearnside (1999) and Santos et al. (1998; Table 2). Using the Santos equation the potential loss of an additional 25.5 t C/ha in BF (above the background level of 10.2 t C/ha in unburnt controls) dramatically increases the amount of carbon released from Amazonian forests. Deforestation activities in the Brazilian Amazon emit approximately 250350 106 t C annually (Fearnside, 1999), or 4–5.5% of the annual 9 global flux of carbon to the atmosphere caused by human activities, which in 1998 was an estimated 6318 106 t C (Worldwatch News Brief, 1999). However, if our results (based on short-term estimates of tree mortality) are extrapolated to the rest of the Brazilian Amazon, the burning of all the primary forests that were prone to surface wildfires after the 1998 dry season (270,000 km2; cf. Nepstad et al., 1999b) would commit 6885 106 t C to be released, supporting the assertion of Nepstad et al. (1999b) that committed carbon estimates from the Brazilian Amazon could be doubled during strong El Niño years such as 1998. Furthermore, fire degrades both the forest structure and species composition and will presumably disrupt the important role Amazonian forest play as a sink for global carbon emissions (Chambers et al., 2001). However, caution should be applied in making wide extrapolations across Amazonia from a restricted network of sampling sites. Soils in the study area were characterised by sand fractions, and therefore may support a lower standing biomass than other Amazonian forests on clay soils (Laurance et al., 1999). However, the lower standing biomass may be offset by the increased root biomass for the acquisition of soil nutrients (Wilson and Tilman, 1991), an important point as total root and soil carbon represent almost half the total carbon content in South American tropical forests (Dixon et al., 1994), and little is known about belowground carbon loss. Furthermore, much of the forests at risk of burning will also be on sandy soils because of their poor water retention capacity (Hammond and ter Steege, 1998). 5. Conclusion In brief, perhaps the most important ecological effect of surface fires is that they increase the likelihood that fire will become a permanent feature of the forest ecosystem, because of decreasing intervals between consecutive El Niño events and the long process of regrowth which is necessary for secondary forest to recover the fire resistance of primary forests. Consequently, the fires disrupt what is a well-balanced carbon cycle between earth and atmosphere (Pielke et al., 1998) as closed-canopy forests hold more carbon per unit area in vegetation and soil than any 10 T. Haugaasen et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 6154 (2002) 1–11 of the ecosystems replacing them (Melillo et al., 1996). Fearnside (1999) acknowledges that the avoidance of ‘natural’ disasters represents a major factor in the carbon balance of tropical forests, and one that should be addressed in global warming mitigation strategies, because the vast areas involved ensures that carbon emissions are substantial. However, surface fires in neotropical forests are often portrayed as fairly innocuous, with low-impact fires resulting in a relatively small percentage of dead trees (e.g. Fearnside, 1999). In this paper we have shown that 36% of all midstorey and canopy trees may die as a result of these fires, representing a loss of an extra 21.6 t C/ha. Surface fires are of huge global concern both in terms of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services, and should be taken more seriously than ever before because of the vast areas that will become prone to fires at the end of future El Niño dry seasons. Acknowledgements This study was funded by the Centre for Applied Biodiversity Science (CABS) of Conservation International and the Josephine Bay and Michael Paul Foundation. Jos Barlow’s fieldwork was funded by a NERC Ph.D. studentship at the University of East Anglia. We are especially thankful to the political leadership of the Reserva Extrativista do TapajósArapiuns and the villagers of Cachoeira do Maró, São José and Porto Rico for allowing us to conduct this study, and to the local assistance of Nan, Arnei and Torózinho. Both Rionaldo and Edith de Santos provided enormous logistical assistance during all stages of the project. References Araujo, T.M., Higuchi, N., Junior, J.A.D., 1997. Comparação de Métodos para Determinar Biomassa na Região Amazônica. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências 68 (1). Barbosa, R.I., Fearnside, P.M., 1999. 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