Creativity Over the Lifespanin ClassicalComposers:
Reexaminingthe Equal-OddsRule
Aaron Kozbelt (Aaron Kfdbrooklyn.cuny.edu)
. UNY
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Introduction
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i s t h e b e s ts t r a t e g yf b r t h o s el v h o s c e ke t n i n e t l c e .
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( N e r ' v e l lS, I r a r i .& S i n r o n .
p r o b l e n rs o l v i n g p e r s p e c t i v e
w o r k sb y t h e s cc o n r p o s e ri s p r o b a b l yr r r r - r chha r d e r( l I a y e s , 1 9 6 2 ;W e i s b c r g l,9 9 c ) ) . F r o m t h i s v i s 1 1g' ,r c a t i t l r :t t n L t s i c l t l
l 9 8 c ) lW e i s b c r g1. 9 9 9 ) . N e v e r t h e l e sSs i,l . n o n t o n(' lsr 9 1 1 ) c o r n p o s i t i oins a n o p e n - e n d epdr o b l e r nc, ' r nw h i c hc o n l p o s e r s
c 1 r - r a n t i t : r tai vn ca l y s i si m p l i c s t h a t t h e s c i n s t a n c e sa r e
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Abstract
Method
i n c l i v i d L r adl i f l ' e r e n c e si n t r u s i c a l a b i l i t y a r e l a r g e l y
a t t r i b u t a b l tco d e l i b e r a t ep r a c t i c er a t h c rt h a n i n n a t et a l e n t . C o m p o s e r s C o m p o s c r sw e r e s c l e c t e dl i o m t h r e es o u r c e s :
L i k e r v i s cI I. a y e s( 1 9 8 9 )c x a m i n c d7 6 c o m p o s e rasn d f b u n d o n e l i s t b a s e do n e m i n e n c (eF a r n s u ' o r t h
1 ,9 6 9 , p2. 2 8 ) .o n e
t h a t i n a l n r o sat l l c a s e sa. t l e a s tt e n v e a r so 1 -i n t e n s i v cs t u d v
b a s e do r . rp e r l b r n r a r r cfei ' e c l u c n c(yM o l c s , 1 9 5 8 / 6 6p, . 2 8 ) ,
ri'crcrequircdbelbrea colttposcrurotc his lirst r-nastcni'ork. a n d o n c l i s l o f a c s t h e t i cs i g n i l - i c r n crca t i n g so 1 ' c o n r p o s e r s '
d e t l n c db y r e c o r d i n gc o l l n t s .T h i s r e s u l ts c c l t l si l l c o n s l s t e n t n r a s t e r p i e c (el sl a l s c y , l c ) 7 6 ) l - h e t o p t c l . tc o r r p o s c r isr t t h e
u i t l r S i n r o n t o n '(s1 9 7 7 )f r n c l i n go f n o c h a n g ei n h i t r a t i c l l l r s tt u , o l i s t sl v c r ea u t o n t a t i c a l sl ya n r p l e dO
. t h c rc o m p o s c r s
o l ' e r c c l m p o s e r se' n t i r e c a r c e r s . s i n c e c l e a r l y g r e a l
r i ' h o h a d n u m e r o u sm a s t e r \ \ ' o r kl iss t c db y I l a l s c y( 1 9 7 6 )
c o n l p o s e ras r c r i ' r i t i r l gs o i l r eg r c a tl v o r k s i n t h e i r n r r t t L r r i t v . w e r e a l s o i n c l u d e d .T h e l 8 c o n t p o s e resx a m i n c cr lv e r e. 1 . S .
l i l ' 1 ' e r e n c e s B a c h . B a r t o k , B e e t h c l v c nB. r a l r n t s ,C h o p i n , D e b u s s y ,
T h u s , d e s p i t ep o t e n t i a l l yi n t p o r t a n ts t r t l c t u r a d
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i ,r k s \ \ ' e r e e x h a u s t i v e l y
t a b u l a t e dn, o t s a r r p l e dl i o m a l a r g e rp o p r - r l a t i cilnnl.- e r e n t i a l
s t a t i s t i c atlc s t sa r c a r g L r a b l iyn a p p r o p r i a t c( c f - .S i m o n t o n ,
2 0 0 0 ) . T h e r e f b r e ,e f - t e c ts i z e s a n d p a r a r n e t eer s t i m a t e s
a c c o n r p a l ri yn f e r e n t i arlc s u l t s u
, , h o s ch y p o t h e t i c a7lr - v a l u e s
c a nb e u s e cal sa h e u r i s t i tcb r d i s c r - r s s i o n .
Lif'espan productivity
L . i l c s p a pn r o d u c t i v i t yg e n e r a l l yi n c r e a s ecsl L r i c k leya r l yi n a
c r e a l o r ' sc a r e e r .p e a k s ,a n d t h c n d e c l i n e sl n o r e g r a d u a l l y
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. hen these
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( 1 9 1 1 ) ,d a t al i o m a l l c o m p o s e r w
in Sinronton
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tfa.icctoryo 1'lotal productivityechocsthc 1r'ecluenlly
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l inor
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f b u r r n e a s u r easr ec o n l b i n c do, r i l ' e a c ho f t h e l b L r rn r e a s u r e s
i s e x a m i n c idn d i v i d u layl . )
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s e r e i n r t i a l l yp L l to t t t ot h e s a n r e
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s c o r e so 1 ' h i t r a t i o s f i o n i t h e b a s i c l l a l s e y , R E 1 f, a n d
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r r e a s u r e( b a s i ch i t r a t i o ) . l n d i v i d u t rzl - s c o r e sf o r o u l p t t ti r t
e a c h a g e p c r i o d . u s e d a s t h c d c p c n d e n tr n c a s l t r el b r
p r o d L r c t i v i t yu,, c r c u s e d h e r e a s a s t a t i s t i c acl o t r t r o l . t t g c
hit ratio.
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lineor.ugc tluudt'tttit'.
C o n t r a r y t o S i n r o r t l o n ' s( 1 9 1 7 ) 1 -ni d i n g s a n c l t h e
p r c d i c t i o n so f t h e c h a r n c c - c o n f i g r - r r a ttihoeno r l ' . t h e
s i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t/,r ( 3 . 1 7 5 )- 4 0 . 0 .p <
r c s r c s s i o rn. i ' a h
Rr - .40. lloth nga linettr andoge tlLruclrttlic'
.000l, acljLrsted
( b r r tn o t o u t l t t r ts)i g n i l i c a n t l p
h i t r a t i o .u g e / i n e u r1 3
yredicted
- . 6 5 . a n cul , q et l u o d r u l i lc. l- - . 4 3 .b o t h T <
r . 0 0 0I ( s r i r- . 3 6
a n d . l i , r c s p e c t i vl ty:) . S i n c e o L l t p u t\ \ , a sn o t s i g n i t i c a n t ,
t a k i n g t h e d e r i v a t i v eo 1 ' t l . r es e c o n d - o r d epr o l y r r o m i a l
r e g r e s s i o en c l u a t r oyni e l d s t h e p e a k a g e f b r h i t r a t i o : 5 2 . 6
years.alrnostl5 yearsafier the peakfbr overalloutput. The
is shovvnin FigureI .
basiclrit ratiotra.jectory
Hit Ratio oYer the Lifespan
!
i
0.5
F c !
2 >
(z-scores
Figr-rre
I : Averagebasichit ratioovertlie lit-espan
computed
l b r e a c hc o m p o s eirn d i v i d r - r a l l y ) .
S u b s a m p l ea n d i n d i v i d u a l a n a l y s e sW h y c l ot h e s er e s u l t s
d i U - c sr o s t r i k i n g l yl i o m S i m o n t o n ' (s1 9 7 7 ) ' ?I ) e r h a ptsh c
a c l d i t i o n acli g h t c o r l p o s e r sa l ' l ' e c t etdh e r e s u l l s . H o l v e v e r ,
t l i i s i s n o t t h e c a s e :u ' h e n h i s t e n c o n r p o s e r as n d t h e
i ngge : a c l d i t i o n ae li g h ta r ea n a l y z e ds e p a r a r t e(lrye c a l c r - r l a t a
s c o r e sl b r e a c hs u b s a r r r p l et h) ,e r e s u l t se s s e n t i a l lrye p l i c a t e :
l b r S i m o n t o n ' s( 1 9 7 7 ) t e n c o m p o s e r st,h e l e g r e s s i o r r
equaticlr.r
accountsfbr 379loof thc varianccin hit ratlo, .r,qc,
LlttLtdruti('
13=
linettr [3- .(t4,p < .000I , (v '] - .38.)anclLtg,L'
- . 2 6 .p < . 0 5 . ( . i r ' ; -: . 0 ; 1 ) ;l b r t h e r e r n a i n i n ge i g h t . t h e
r e g r e s s i ocnq u a t i o na c c o u n t sf b r 4 l 7 o o f t h e v a r i a n c ei n h i t
IJ = -.-52,both p <
ratio, .7.qdlineur B - .63, agc c1r-radratic
. 0 0 0I ( . v ' ,=- . 3 1a n d. 1 9 ,r e s p e c t r v e l .y )
E a c hc o m p o s c\r\ a s a l s o i n c l i v i d r - r a a
l ln
y a l y z e d .I n t h e s e
a n a l y s c so,n e - y e aar g eu ' i n d o r v sr v e r eu s e da n d a g ez - s c o r e s
\ \ ' e r er e c o n l p u t e dT. h c h i t r a t i o o l ' a l r r r o set v e r y i n d i v i c l L r a l
c o m p o s errv a si m p a c t c db y a g c ( m e d i a na d j u s t e d - R- ' . 3 4 ) .
I n p a r t i c u l a rt.h i r t e e nc o m p o s e r s h o r v c dr c l i a b l cl p < . 0 5 )
p o s i t i v eu g e l i n e n r e f ' t ' e c t(sm e d i a ni n d i v i d u a .l i r i - - . 2 2 ) .
Five shori,edrelinblenegativeoge quadruliccfl-ccts(nredian
i n c l i v i d L r.avl' ; l - . Q ] 1 . O n l y B a c h a n d S t r a u s s l r o * e d n c r
a g c - r c l a t ctcrlc r r d s .T h e I i n e a ri n c r e a s es e e r n sq u i t e r o t r u s t :
q r - r a d r a bt ioc o s ti s c o n s i s t c n t lrvv e a k e r .
t h en r i d - c a r e e
h i g h l ys i g n i l i c a n.tt.r( 3 , 1 7 5 )= 1 5 . 0 5p. < . 0 0 0 1a. d j L r s t cRcl l
= . 1 9 .c t g el i n e c t rB = . 1 9 .p < . 0 0 0l . ( . r r i :- . 1 0 ) a n d o g c
t l t r t t t l r t t l i fcl - - . 1 9 , p < . 0 5 , 1 . r r , r- . 0 2 1 . T o l o lo u l p u l\ \ ' L r s
n o t s i g n i f i c a n tI.r r d i v i d u aal n a l y s e su. s i n g o n e - 1 ' e aarq e
w i n d o r . i , sr e
, v e a l e dt e n c o n l p o s e r sl v i t h r e l i a b l e( 7 ; < . 0 5)
p o s i t i v eo g e l i n c a r t r e r . r d(sm e c l i a ni n d i v i d u a sl r 1 - ' - . 1 2 ) .
A g e c l u u d r n t i cw a s a r v e a k e rp r e d i c t o r( r n c d i a ni n d i v i d r , r a l
, r / ' i - = 0 i ) . T h r e e c o m p o s e r ss h o r v e dr c l i a b l ec l u a d r a t i c
t r e n d s , o n e ( W a g n e r ) , n e e a t i v e , a n d t u ' o ( 1 3 a r t 6 ka n d
S c h u b e r t ) .p o s i t i v e . i n d i c a t i n g a l a t e s u r u e i r r g r e r t
n l a s t c r w o r kp r o d r - r c t i o nT.a k i n g t h c d c r i v a t i cr . o f t h c
p o l y n o n r i arlc g r c s s i ocnc l r . r a t i (oant i c ra c c o u n l r nlgi r r ( ) Lt pt r |r\
y i c l d s a p e a k a g e u , a s 6 5 .I y e i l r s f b r s t r i n g e r rht i t r a t i o .
n o t a b l yl a t e rt h a n t h a t t i r r p r o d u c t i v i t y( l a t et h i r t i c s )o r t h e
b a s i ch i t r a t i or n e a s u r(ee a r l yt o m i c l - l r l i i c s ) .
M a t u r e w o r k s P e r h a p st l r e s er e s r r l t sp. r r t i c L r l a r l tyh e
r c p e a t e d l yo b s e r v e dt t g e l i n e a r e l l ' e c t .a r e a n a r t i l a c to 1 '
' o r l < s( r e c a l lH a y c s ' s( l t ) 8 c ) 1
c o m p o s e r su' n a c c l a r n r eccalr l y w
1 e n - y e arrL r l e )u. h i c h c l a m p c nh i t r a t i oi l t c a r c c ro L l t s c t .T o
t e s tt h i s ,t h e l l r s l t \ ! o a s e p e r i o d sc l f ' e a c ch o m p o s e(rp l u st h e
t h i r d p c r i o d so f B a r t 6 k r n t l D v t r Y r i ku, h c n h o t h h i t r a t i o s
were 0) r.vere
droppedfiorn the analysis.Age z-scoresrvere
r e c a l c r - r l a t eTd h. e a v e r a g eo f t h e b a s i cI I a l s e y .R f D , a n d
P e n g u i nh i t r a t i o s d e l l n e d h i t r a t i o . T h e t h r e e - p r e d i c t o r
r e g r e s s i o rne m a i n c ds i g n i f i c a n t f, ( 3 , 1 4 0 ) = 7 . r < r ,t , ' . 0 0 0l , a d . j u s t eRdr - . 1 3 . A g e l i r r c a lp o s i t i v e l yp r c c l i c t ehdi t
r a t i o , R = . 2 ( ) ,l t - . 0 0I ( . r r , : - . 0 7 ) . A g e t l r t u t l r o t i t''t n c )
o u t l t t r te a c hn c g a t i v c l yp r e d i c t e dh i t r a t i o ,r e s p e c l i v e l yB. - . 3 0 p, - . 0 0 1( s r , r- . 0 S ) . a n cf Jl- - . 1 5 p, - . 0 9 ( . ! / ' i=r . 0 2 ) .
T h e a g e w i s ee t f b c t sa r c a t t c n L l a l cd L r r i n gc o n r p o s i t i o n a l
m a t u r i t yb, L rtth c e f f c c l sr c m a i nr el i a b l c .
A r r a n g e m e n t sa n d r e v i s i o n s N o 1 i n c o r p o r a t c ci nl t o a n y
p r e ri,o r - r sa n a l y s c sw c r c a r r a n g e m e n tas r r d r e v i s i o n st h a t
r v e r ei n c l u d e d( a i b e i tm i r . r i m a l lryi ' c i g h t c cilr)r S i n r o n t o n ' s
( 1 9 7 7 )a r . r a l y s i sA. s a f i n a l t e s t o t ' t h e u ' o r k m c i t s L l r c ,
a r r a n g c n l c n t sr ,e l i s i o n s , a r r d d a t a b l el o s l u ' o r k s u e r e
i n c l u d e di n t h e a n a l y s i sS. i m o n t o n ' s( i 9 7 7 ) r v e i g h t i n g
u ' a s c n r p l o y c d . f l i t r a t i o sn ' e r er e c a l c u l a t cuds i n g
s.vstem
i n c l r - r s i oi nn H a l s e y( 1 9 7 6 )a s n r a s t c r p i c cccr i t e r i o n .n t o t a l
o l 8 , 0 - 5 7d a t a p o r n t sr " ' c r ei n c l u d e c l .T h e n r - r t n b cor1 'a g c
p e r i o c l as l s o i n c r e a s e dt o, 1 8 6 . U n t r a n s f i r r m chdi t r a t i o si n
e a c ha g e p e r i o dr v e r cu s e da s t h e d e p e n d c nttn c a s u r ea, n c l
v e o r si n i n t e r v u lw a s u s e da s a c o n t r o i ,e c h o i n gS i m o n t o n
( 1 9 1 1 ) . T h e r c s L r l t sr e p l i c a t e da r r d a r c c o r r . r p a r a bi lne
s t r c r r g t ht o m o s t p r e v i o u sa n a l v s e s . T h e t h r e c - p r c d i c t o r
r e g r e s s i orrer m a i n c ds i g n i { i c a n tF, ( 3 , I 8 2 ) - i L 8 5 , p < . di t
R - - - . 3 1 . A g e l i n e t r rp o s i t r v c l yp r e d i c t e h
. 0 0 0l , a d j u s t e d
r a t i o ,l J = . 5 1, p < . 0 0 0 1 ( . s r ' ,:' . 2 7 ) . A g o q u t t d r u t i t
n e g a t r v c lpyr c d i c t e d
h i t r a t i o ./ - - . 3 0 .p < 0 0 0 i ( . r r , - . 0 6 ) .
O u t p t rw
t a s a r r a r g i n a l l ys i g n i f i c a npt r c c l i c t o/rt. - . 1 3 ,p . 0 5 ( s r , r = . 0 1 ) . F . i g h tc o m p o s e r ss h o l l ' e ds i g n i f i c a n t
posifivcuge linettr trends.and thrcc sho"vedsi-unilicant
agc
qtrudrolit'trcncls(1rvonegative,onc positivc).
S t r i c t c r h i t r a t i o c r i t e r i o n T h e s t r i c t e rI l a l s e , rc r i t c l i o r r
( r e v e r s e rda t i n g so f ' . 1o r - 5 )* ' a s a l s ot c s t e d . I l i t r a t i o sa n d
i n d i v i d u ahl i t r a t i i lz - s c o r c su ' c r cr e c a l c u l a t c caln. c lt l r cs a n r e
t h r e e - p r e d i c t roer g r e s s i ouna s p c r f i r r m e c lT. h i s c l c n r a n d i n g
T h e m a t i c m e a s u r e A l l n a l a n a l y s i s u s c c la t r r e a s u r eb a s c c l
c r i l e r i o n r e d u c e sp o w c r , a s h a p p e n su ' l t e n e v e rh i 1 r a t i o s
r e n r a i n e d o n m u s i c a l t h c r n c so r n ' r e l o d i e sr a t h c r t l r a n c n t i r e * t t r k s ( c 1 ' .
a p p r o a c h0 o r L D c s p i t et h i s , t h e r e g r e s s i o n
S i n r o n t o n1, 9 7 7 ) . H i t r a t i o i n e a c ha g e p e r i o dr v a sd e l l n e d
b y t l i e n u n l b e r o f n r c l o d i e si n c l u d e d b y I l a r l o r v a n d
M o r g c n s t e r (n1 9 4 8 , 1 9 5 0 )i n a l l r v o r k sl i s t e db y H a l s e y
( 1 9 7 6 ) d i v i d e d b y t h e t o t a l n r - r m b eor 1 -a n t h o l o g i z e c i
n r e l o d i e st i o r n t h a t a g e p e r i o d . F e w e r a g e p c r i o d s( l 4 l )
c a l rt h e l v o r k t r r e a s t t r e .
\ \ c r e r e p f c s c n t ebdy t h i s m e a s r " t rt h
p
e
r
i
o
c
l
s
a
n
t
l
i
o
l o g i z etchlc n l e s .A g e z a
l
l
c
o
t
t
t
a
i
n
e
d
s i n c en o t
Hcle. lotol themes
sccrres
tor the samplc\\'ererecalcLtlated.
pcr period rvasuscd as a cotttrol. The three-prediclor
s ig r . triic a n t .c o n t r a r ) '
h i t r i r t i or e n t a i n e d
r c g r c s s i opnr e d i c t i n g
1 oS i n r o n t o n('1s 9 7 7 r) e p o r tF: ( 3 , 1 3 7 )= 9 . 6 4 p, < . 0 0 0 1 ,
Rr : .l 6. Age linear posittvelypredictcdhit ratio,
acljLrsred
U - . i 7 , p < . 0 0 0 1 ,( . s r 1 r : . 1 2a) n do g eq t t t t d r a t ince g a l i v e l y
- .06). Totul
prcclicted
h i t r a t i o . B - - . 2 6 .p - . 0 0 2 , ( , s r , 2
=
.
1
5
,
p = . 0 6 , ( " r ' r '-, :
t h e m e .rsl ' a sn r a r q i n a l l sy i g n i f i c a n tf,l
. 0 2) .
A l t e r n a t i v ea n a l y s e s I n a d c l i t i o nt o t h e a n a l y s c sr e p o r t c d
h c r e . a d d i t i o n a la n a l y s e sr u l e c l o u t l i r r t h c l c a n d i d a t c
c vf ' t h e p r e s e n t
a l t e r n a t i veex p l a n a l i o nfsb r t h e i n c o t r s i s t e t t o
. r n o n gt h e a n a l y s e s
r c s r - r lw
t si t h t h o s eo f S i t r r o n t o(nl r 9 7 1 ] )A
perfornredu'crc tlrclseusingthe ra\\ averagehit ratio tilr thc
b a s i cH n l . r c . r ' .R E D . t t t l d P c n g t i n c r i t c r i a . r a t h c r t h a n
i n d r v i d u a l l zy - t r a n s l b r t n ehdi t r a t i o s ;u s i n s a n a g g r e g a t e
o n c - y e a ra g e r . i i n d o l vr a t l r e lt h a n a f i v c - y c a ra g e u i n d o l v :
c o m p L r t i nagg c b a s e do l t ) ' e a r so f n t r - r s i csatlu c l y( c a r e c ra g c )
r a t h c rt h a nc h r o n o l o g i c aalg e ;a n a l v z i n go n l l ' m a l u r eu ' o r k s
r : s i n ga o n e - y e aur i n d o u c l a t i n gf i o n l t l r e o n s c to l -m u s i c a l
s t u d yo r o 1 ' n r L r s i ccaolm p o s i t i o na;r r dp e r l b r m i l l ga l l o f ' t h e s c
a n a l y s eosn c a c l rt r ' r ' os u b s a n t p l cos1 ' c o r n p o s c rSsi:r n o n l o n ' s
( 1 9 1 1 )t c n a n d t h c a d d i t i o n ael i g h t . T h e s a r n cp a t t e r no f a
s i g n i f i c a n t , p o s i t i v c u g e l i n e ( 1 r t r e n d c o r , r p l c dr v i t h a
trcltd u'as
significant(bLrtweaker).negativettge cltrtrdrotic'
f o u n di n e a c ha n a l y s i s .
Discussion
W i t h o r - ret x c e p t i o n .t h e p r c s e n tr c s u l t sc o r r t r a d i c tS r m o n l o n ' s
( 1 9 7 7 ) n u l l t - i n c l i n go n a g c r , r ' i s ec h a n g e s i n c l a s s i c e r l
composcrs' hit ratios. Age lincur increasesr.vereur.rilbrnlll'
lbund in analyscs t-tsitrgtu'o sets ol'nlastcrpiece critcrta, tu'o
m e r r s u r e so f o v e r a l l o u l p L l t ( r v o r k s a n d t h c m c s ) , t u o
u ' e i g h t i n g s y s t e r t l s ,s t a t i s t i c a l l y c o n t r o l l i n g f b r i n d i v i d r - r a l
d i f t e r e n c c si n l i t c t i m e h r t r a t i t t , a n a l y z i n e o n l y c o l n p o s e r s '
m a t l r r e r v o r k s . i n c l r - r d i n ga r r a l l g e l l l c l l t sa r r d r e v i s i o n s a n d
l o s t r i o r k s , a n d s e p a r a i e l yc x a r n i n i n gt u o s l t b s a r . t . l p locfs t h e
c o n r p o s e r s . I n d i v i d u a l a n a l v s e sg e n e r a l l y 's h o r v c d r e l i a b l c
U r 1 . 0 5 ) o g e l i n e u r i t i c r c a s e si n a t l e a s t h a l l ' o f t h c s a n l p l c '
a n c l n o c h a n g c i n h i t r a t i o i l i t h e r c s t . A v v e a k e r ,n c g a t i v e
ctgc tlttadrutic tretrd r,r'asalso ficcltrently cvidettt, sLrggesting
a m i c l - c a r e c rb o o s t i n h i t r a t i o . T h e s e l l n d i n g s s L l p p o r t h c
p r o b l e m s o l v i n g a n d p e a k a g e p e r s p e c t i v e sa n d s c e r r rl a r g e l y
Atl
i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t l i t h e c h a n c e - c o n l l g L l r a t i o l lt h c o r y
i r r c r e a s ei n t h e q u a l i t y ' o 1 ' m a s t e r p i e c e sa. l s o s i g n i f i c a n t i n
a b o u t h a l f o l ' i n c l i v i d u a l c o t . l . t p o s c l ' fsi.r r t h e r s L l p p o r t st h e
problem solving and pcak agc perspcctives. The chancec o n f i g r - t r a t i o nt h e o r y u a s s r - r p p o r t e c lh. o r v e v e r . b y a
s o m e v n , h al o
t w e r ( t h o L r g hs t i l l r e l i a b l e ) p o s i t i v c c o r r e l a t i o n
between the prodLrctionof ma.jorand minor rvclrks.
I t r e m a i n s u n c l e a rw h y t h e s e r c s u l t sd i f f e r s o d r a m a t i c a l l - " fiom tliose reported by Simclnton ( 1977). Numerotts
a l t e r n a t r v ee x p l a n a t i o r r s( e . g . , i n c l u d i n g a r r a t t g e l r e n t sa t r d
r e v i s i o n s , u s i n g v a r i o u s t - n a s trep i e c e c r i l er i a ) \ \ e r c t c s t c c l
a n d r u l c d c l u t . M o r e d e t a i l c d c o r t t p a r i s o t ' tasr e c l i f f i c r - r ltto
n r a k c , s i r r c e S i m o n t o n ( 1 9 1 1 ) f e p o r t e c jl ' e r r d c s c r i p t t l ' e
, nd sonletimcs
s t a t r s t i c sa b o u t t h e a n a l y z e d c o r n p o s r t i o n s a
t l r e r e p o r t e ds t a t i s t i c sc o n t r a d i c tt h e p r e s c n td a t a ( c . g . . i n t h c
n u m b e l o f a g e p e r i o d s a n a l y z e d ) .U n f o r t u n a t c l y ,b e c a u s ct l f '
computcr technology advanccs. his original data are no
comnrr-rnicatiot.t
Ionger rctrievable ( Si monton, pelsc'tnal
).
A s p e c t s o f t h c o b s e r v c d a g e u ' i s ec l i a n g e sa r c c o n l p a t i b l c
r , i ' i t hb o t h t h e p r o b l e n r s o l v i n g a n d c h a n c c - c o n f i g r ' r r a t i o n
p e r s p e c t i v c s .F o r i n s t a n c e ,n l L l c ho f t h c i m p r o r " c r n c nitn h i t
ratio occurs in the early part of' colxposcrs' careers,
c o n s i s t e n t u i t h e x p c c t a t i o n s a b o L t ts k i l l a n d e x p e r t l s c
a c q u i s i t i o n a s a p r e c o l t c l i t i o nf i t r o L l t s t a l l d i l l sc r e r t t r c\
a c l r i e v e m c r r(tl I a y es , I 9 8 9 ; W c i s b e r g . 1 9 9 9 ) . I I o u ' c v er . l g e
t r c n d s d u r i n g c o m p o s i t i o n a l r r a t r - r r i t ya c c o t t n t e d t i r r o n l y
o n e - t h i r d t o o r r e - h a l f a s r - n t t c hv a r i a n c c a s t h ( ) s c s p r n t li t l u
c o l n p o s c r s 'e n t i r c c a r e e r s .u ' h i c h i s a t l e a s t J o i Tci l l ' h t l 1t l l o l ' €
consi stcnt lvitlr thc chancc-conflsurali oll theorl'.
T h e s l i g h t h i t r a t i c td c c l i n e l a t e i n l i 1 ' ei s i n c o n s i s t e nuti t h
'fhe
p r o b l e m s o l v r n g p c r s p e c t i v ed o e s n o t
both theolics.
p o s i t a n r e c l r a n i s r nt o c x p l a i n a d r o p i n p c r s p i c a c i t yl a t e i n
l i l ' e . T h e h i t r a t i o d e c l i n e a m o n g c l d e r l y c o r n p t l s c r sa l s t r
violates thc equal-oddsrule applvirrg until the end ol'
c r c a t o r s ' l i v e s . H o u ' e v e r , t h i s d e c r c n l e n ts h o L r l db e
i r l t e r p r e t c dc a u t i o u s l y ,c l u et o a l o w ' N a n d h i g h v a r i a b i l i t y i n
h i t r a t i o so f c o m p o s c r si n t h e i r s e v e n t i c sa n d b c y o n d .
T h e p a t t e r n o 1 -p e a k a g e s i s m o r e d i f l l c L r l t t o r e c o n c i l e
r v i t h t h e c h a n c c - c o n f i g u r a t i o nt h e o r y . O v e r a l l p r o d u c t i v i t y
p e a k s f i r s t , i n c o n t p o s c r s ' l a t c t h i r t i e s , c o n s i s t en t ' " ri t h
p r c v i o r - r sw o r k ( s e e S i m o r . r t o n ,1 9 9 7 ) . F l i l r a t i o d e t r n c c lb y
t l i e t h r c c l e s ss t r i n g e n tm a s t e r p i c c cc r i t e r i a p e a k sa r o u n d a g c
5 3 . T h e n r o r e s t r i n g c n t l y d c l i n e d h i t r a t i c lp c a k s e v c n l a t e r .
a1 65 1,ears. Note also that thcse data are llol llllnor
, s t h e y r c p r e s e n tp a r a l n c l t - r st - t r rt h e
s t a t i s t i c a la b e r l a t i o r r s a
I 8 corttposers.
o1'these
career landmarks
T h e s e r e s u l t s d i s s o c i a t et r v o p r e d i c t i o n s o 1 ' t l r c c h a n c e c o n f i g u r a t i o n t h e o r y . M a n y s t u c l i e s ,r n c l t r d i n g t h i s o t . t c ,
5 l 6 q ' p o s i t i v e n r a . j o r - m i n o rr v o r k c o r r c l a l i o n s . I l o r v c l e r '
s u c h c o r r e l a t i o n sd o n o t p r c c l L l d ea n a g e r v i s et t t t p r o rc t . t . t t ' t t l
i n h i t r a t i o a n d c a n n o t b y t l i e n r s e l v c sr u l c o t t t a l t c r n a t l v c
t h e o r c t i c a lt n o d e l s C o m p r c h e n s i v ca n a l ) t s c so t ' a g c r ' irs e h i t
ratio trends, as pcrlormed here, are also necessary.
T h e c o r r s i s t e n l u g e l i n e u t ' i r r c r e a s ea n d l a t c p e a k s l o r h i t
r a t i o a n d m a s t e r p i c c e q L r a l i t y s L l g g e s tt h a t a t l e a s t s o n t e
c r e a t o r s b o o s t c r e a t i v i t y a s t h e r r c a r e e r s p r o g r e s s .W h i l c
c c r t a i n l y c l u a n t i t yo f i d e a t i o n p r c l v i d c st h e r a r v r n a t e r i a ll b r
c r e a t i v e p r o d u c t i v i t y , t h e p r e s e n t r e s u l t s s u g g e s tt h a t s o l l l c
gains as
c r e a t o r sa r e p e r s p i c a c i o u sa n d a b l e t o c o n s < l l i d a t e
t h e y e l a b o r a t ei d e a s . T l i L r s .g o a l - c l i r e c t e dp r o b l c n r s o l v i n g
a n c lc v a l u a t i c l np r o c e s s c s .a s r v e l l a s a c c u m u l a t c de ' r p c r t i s e
( H a y e s , 1 9 8 9 ; S i r n o n t o n .2 0 0 0 ; W e i s b c r g , 1 9 9 9 ) . p l a y
s r - r b s t a n t i arl o l c s i n c r e a t i v e p r o d u c t i v i t l ' . N a t u r a l l y .
c r e a t o r s ' i n s t i t - t c t sa r e n o t p c r l - e c t ,b t r t r r a n y c o l l l p o s c r s '
.1. (I996). TlteDo C'apot'trtuktgof clussit'ttl
Chlviall<orvsl<i,
i n t r . r i t i o nasb o u t h e v a l L l eo f t h c i r i d e a sa p p e a tro h a v eb e e n
New York: Da Capo.
music't'ompositictn.s.
s o u n c la
, n d t h e y s e e n tt o h a r v ei n r p r o v e dt h e s e i n t u r t i o n s
ly u'ith age.
E r i c s s s o nK, . A . , K r a m p e , R . T . , & T c s c h - R i i m c rC. .
sLrbstantial
- e l i b c r a t pe r a c t i c ei n a c q u i s i t i oonl '
T h e e v a l u a t i v ca n d e l a b o r a t i v ep r o c e s s e tsh a t r n i g h t
( 1 9 9 3 ) .T h e r o l eo 1d
quality
p e r m i t a n i n c r e a s ei n h i t r a t i o a n c l n r a s t e r p i c c e
Revieu' 100, 363Ps1'cPn1,,tftr'rtl
perlornlance.
expert
r e r n a i r .irl l d e f i n e d , b L r t t h e s c r e s u l t s s L l g g e stth a t b o t h
406.
c o g n i t i v c a n d n r o t i v a l i o n a vl a r i a b l e sp l a y k e y r o l c s .
oj ntttsit'
P. R. ( 1966). The sot'ittl yts.r't'holrtgt'
Farns',vorth,
A v e r a g ch i t r a t i o d o e sn o t i n c r c a s el i n e a r l yb r - t it s l t t n o r e
y ress.
( 2 ' " ie d . ) A m e s ,I A : I o u ' aS t a t eU n i v e r s r tP
c u r v i l i r r e a sr .i n g l e - p e a k el idr n c t i o n . L a t e r i n t h e i r l i v c s .
F o r c lC
, . ( E d . )( 2 0 0 3 ) . T h e R E Dt ' l t t s . s i cto' ul t t r l o g .[ - o n d o n :
c o m p o s c r su r i t c l e s s r r u s i c t h : r n i n n l i c l c a r e e rb. u t a
RI D Publishing.
p r o g r e s s i v c hl yi g h e rp r o p o r t i o ni s u a s t c t ' p r e c e - l c vaenl .dt h c
C a l e n s o nD
, . W . ( 2 0 0l ) . P t t i n t i n g o t r t ' s i d et h e l i n e s
l ' .h a t o l d c r
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c o n p o s e r sl a c k i n e n c r g y ,t h c y a p p e a rt o n l a k c r . r pl b r i n
I I a r v a r dU n i v c r s i t yP r e s s .
u'isdorl.
recordings
it'ol ttttr'sic
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1 ' h c u n d e r l y i n gp s y c h o l o g i c apl r o c e s s e ns l a y a l s o b e
A: m e r i c a nL i b r a r yA s s o c i r t i o r t .
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tJaycs,J. I{. ( 1989). The contpleteprrthlem.tolr'er
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c h a n g e s .F r - r r t h er cr s e a r c hl i n k i n gc a r ee t t t a . i c c t o r y K o z b c l t A
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N e v r lel . A . , S h a r vJ, . C . , & S i n r o n I. I . A . ( 1 9 6 2 ) . T h e
a d d i t i o nt o i d e o g r a p h iacn a l y s e sc.o n l p r e h e n s i vset r - r d i cl isk e
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t h i s o n e a r c n e c e s s a rt yc ld e t e r t n i n teh e e x t c n to f c q r - r a l - o d d s p r o c e s s cos f c r e a t i v ct h i n k i n g . l n I I L . G r r - r b c r .
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lo crealivethinking(pp 63-l l9). Neu York:
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s t r e s sA
: b i o - u r a p h i ctai rl t r c - s e r l easn a l y s i so f l 0 c l a s s i c a l
c o m p o s e r s . J o t r r n o l r t . f f t e r s r t n t t l i l , vu n d S t t c i o l
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['.s1'c'holozv.
I t h a n k t w o a n o n y m o u sr c l - e r e e sA. r t h r - r rR e b c r , L a r a i n c
S i m o n t o nt,) . K . ( 1 9 S 5 ) .Q t r a l i t yc, l t r a r r t i tayn. d a g c :T h e
M c D o n o u g h ,D a v i d O u e n . a n d N c i l M a c r l l i l l a n ,t ' r ' l r o
c a r e c r so f l 0 d i s t i n g L r i s h epds y c h o l o g l s.t sI n l a r n o l i t t r t t t l
t rlr r dt n c t h o d o l o g i c aald v i c e
c l f - 1 e l ccdo t r s t r u c t i vceo n c e p t L l a
Journul o/ Aging crndHurnttnDevelopment'2I ' 2'41-254.
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a t v a r i o u ss t a g e so l ' t h e p r o . j e c t 'dse v e l o p n l e n tD
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Simonton provided valtrable inlbrmation on tlrc
m u s i c : A c o m p u t e ra n a l y s i so f 1 , 9 3 5 c o t t l p o s i t i t ' r n s .
r l e t h o d o l o g ya n d r . v e i g h t i nsqy s t c n lo f h i s 1 9 7 7 s t u d y . I
of theArt,s,1, l-17.
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