Ecosystem Management of South Florida Developing a shared vision of ecological and societal sustainability Mark A. Harwell I nter disciplinary science is becoming inextricably drawn into the policy debate concerning complex environmental and resource management issues. Examples include the restoration of the Everglades, the management of Chesapeake Bay, and the development of options for managing fisheries and old-growth forests of the Pacific Northwest. Society and the scientific community have not yet converged on appropriate mechanisms for interactions between policy and science, nor have the relative balances of scientific issues and societal values been satisfactorily esta blished. Nevertheless, recent focus on interdisciplinary science, especially through the newly emerging conceptual frameworks of ecosystem management, ecological risk assessment, and human-environment interactions, can now advance this discourse to a new level. Under the auspices of the US Man and the Biosphere (US MAB) HumanDominated Systems Directorate, a case study on ecosystem management to Mark A. Harwell is director of the Center for Marine and Environmental Analyses at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149. He is an ecosystems ecologist specializing in methods for ecological risk assessment and ecosystem management. He is also chair of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board (SAB) Ecological Processes and Effects Committee and chair of the US Man and the Biosphere Program (US MAB) Human-Dominated Systems Directorate. September 1997 The time has come to take interdisciplinary discussions beyond the theoretical and into the applied achieve ecological sustainability of the South Florida regional ecosystem has been under way for the past five years. The project participants have developed generic ecosystem management principles (Bartuska et al. in press, US MAB 1994) and have applied these principles to the ecological and societal systems of South Florida. The full case study is documented in M. Harwell et al. (in press a). In this article, I describe the conceptual framework of this ecosystem management case study as well as the process of the study, its results, and the practical lessons to emerge from it, all of which may be applicable to other interdisciplinary scientific and policy studies. The problem of South Florida The South Florida regional ecosystem is a complex mosaic of communities linked by freshwater flow and dependent on its interannual variability. But one of the world's largest water management systems has fundamentally altered the natural systems to support a rapidly growing human population. The key issue is how to restore a sustainable natural ecosystem while maintaining the services society requires. The natural ecosystem. The essence of the Everglades is the abundance and diversity of species that once lived in diverse habitats across vast open spaces of "the river of grass" and associated coastal estuaries, including sawgrass plains, mangrove forests, tropical hardwood hammocks, and diverse estuaries (Douglas [1947] 1988). The unique qualities of this ecosystem, which are so highly valued by humans, were historically defined by the hydrological, landscape, and ecological factors that are essential for sustainability (Davis and Ogden 1994). These critical historical factors include the following (Browder et al. in press): Dynamic storage and sheetflow. The hydrologic regime, with dynamic storage and sheetflow of highly oligotrophic (low-nutrient) water across the landscape and entering the Florida and Biscayne Bays, established the essential quality of the Everglades (Douglas 1947 [1988]). This hydrology, operating over an extensive area, organized and concentrated primary and secondary production, established salinity gradients important to the estuaries, and concentrated production into a network of dry season refugia for freshwater fish and invertebrates. Because of the dynamic storage and slow rate of water flow, wet season precipitation kept the wetlands wet and freshwater flowing to the estuaries into the dry season so that a 499 C C)IlIa lJlNA T IOfl' 14&T 1VDWk.AOf. A IIlI.A & N" 1."......10 .. A IIlI.A - 6OU'H n OAm It 01& T-e'l W it eou..o....... IIlI M " " ._.. -,.. , .. '. ..... ,. . Figure 1. The South Florida Water Management District and key components of the regional system. Note the general water flow from the Kissimmee River watershed, through Lake Okeechobee, and across a broad pathway, now covered by the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) and Water Conservation Areas (WCA), through Everglades National Park to Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the historic flows are now diverted through the Caloosahatchee River, St. Lucie Canal, and a series of canals through the EAA and WCAs. year of high rainfall maintained surface water into subsequent drought years (Fennema et al. 1994). Because of minor differences in topography, different parts of the landscape had different water depths and durations of wet conditions (known as hydroperiod). Areas with longer hydroperiods supported abundant and diverse populations of freshwater 500 invertebrates, which supported large numbers of wading birds (Ogden 1994). These variable hydroperiods also shaped the communities of the coastal estuaries. Nutrients for plant growth were derived principally from rainfall and were widely distributed and rapidly assimilated into the carbonate-based system, resulting in low concentra- tions of nutrients throughout the fresh and saline waters. The oligatrophic conditions determined the characteristic biota of the Everglades, preventing replacement of this unique flora with exotic plants that would outcompete native vegetation if nutrients were elevated. Large spatial scale. The region's high biotic diversity and the persistence of ecologically important populations were consequences of the large spatial scale over which the mosaic of habitats existed (Davis and Ogden 1994, Science SubGroup 1993). Large spatial extent of the connected wetland and upland systems is necessary for populations of animals that require large ranges for feeding (Craighead 1979), which in the Everglades historically included the Florida panther, alligators, and wading birds (Craighead 1968, Robertson and Frederick 1994). A large spatial area was particularly necessary in the oligotrophic system to ensure sufficient secondary production to support large numbers of vertebrates. The large vertebrates had to be mobile (because food was patchily distributed across the landscape as a result of small differences in elevation and nutrient availability) and capable of adjusting the timing and location of reproductive and feeding activities . These features arc associated with high in terann ual varia bili ty in population levels. Habitat heterogeneity. Heterogeneous vegetation distribution (from uplands and freshwater wetlands to mangroves, estuaries, and bays) interacted with physical environmental factors (e.g., microtopographical relief, local climatic variation, and episodic disturbances) to create a complex mosaic of habitats across the landscape. The variety of habitats and hydroperiods constituted the spatial framework to support the diverse animal populations that were characteristic of the predrainage Everglades under a range of climatic conditions (Davis and Ogden 1994). The habitat mosaic was sustained only by the heterogeneity and large scale of connected upland-wetlandestuarine ecosystems (Browder et al. in press). Natural disturbances. The South Florida regional ecosystem is highly BioScience Vol. 47 No. 8 •• • , ~ .. ••• • , '. Figure 2. Wetland vegetation of South Florida . (a) Historic vegetation. (b) Current vegetation. The water management system is the primary reason for the change in the landscape of ecological communities, except that the historic pinelands have been almost totally converted to urban development. The rich soils of the historic swamp forest and sawgrass plains south of Lake Okeechobee were drained, and those ecosystems are virtually gone, replaced by the EAA (see Figure 1). The remaining slough mosaic, sawgrass mosaic, southern marsh, and Florida Bay and other estuaries are all greatly at risk and will be irreversibly lost if appropriate modifications to the water management system are not made soon . Redrawn from Davis et al. (1994). subject to natural disturbances. The frequency and intensity of fires were determined by the interannual variability in the timing and duration of the wet and dry seasons, and interacted closely with the local hydrologic conditions (e.g., hardwood hammocks developed a relatively deep surrounding moat over time as a result of dissolution of the limestone bedrock, retarding fires and allowing maturation of the hardwood forest; Gunderson and Snyder 1994). Infrequent freeze events, prolonged droughts, and extreme winds and storm surges from hurricanes were also critical to the landscape-level structure and function of the regional ecosystem (Davis and Ogden 1994, Duever et al. 1994, Myers and Ewel 1990, Science SubGroup 1993). These natural characteristicsdynamic storage and sheetflow, large spatial scale, habitat heterogeneity, and natural disturbances-were es- September 1997 sential for the sustainability of the Everglades (Browder et al. in press). However, an extensively engineered system of canals, levees, and dikes presently regulates this unique re gional ecosystem (Figure 1). Drainage and channelization projects initiated in the 1880s were designed initially to drain land for human activities (agriculture and urban development) and subsequently (following disastrous hurricanes in the 1920s and 1940s) to provide flood control for the human population along the east coast of South Florida (Light and Dineen 1994). The current artificial management has severely disrupted dynamic storage and sheetflow and has significantly reduced and fragmented the spatial extent and heterogeneity of the mosaic. Moreover, natural episodic disturbances have now become additional stressors contributing to the system's decline. Whereas water was once the critical characteristic of the natural Everglades system, it has become its most limiting resource. Most important, there is a lack of adequate quantities and timely distribution of clean water to coincide with the system's natural cycles. This situation has reduced the natural Everglades to a degraded remnant (Figure 2; Davis et al. 1994): Only half of the original Everglades remains in a near-natural state, and only one-fifth is highly protected in the US MAB Biosphere Reserve and Everglades National Park (Derr 1993). As a result, the Everglades is an endangered ecosystem. It is not sustainable and, in the absence of significant changes, will continue to decline. For legal and political reasons, efforts to restore the ecosystem initially focused just on issues of water quality (in particular, phosphorus inputs), with limited atten501 tion paid to water delivery policies. However, to recapture the historical characteristics of the natural system and to achieve long-term ecological sustainability, fundamental regionalscale changes in the water management system are essential (Harwell and Long 1992). The human system. South Florida was little affected by humans until the late nineteenth century (see Solecki et al. in press). The coastal and Everglades watersheds were divided by the Atlantic Coastal Ridge (primarily the pine forests shown in Figure 2a; Hoffmeister 1974), and most early settlers lived within a few miles of the Atlantic Ocean or in the Florida Keys (Solecki et al. in press). The Everglades themselves were not settled because of high rates of flooding and fires and large populations of mosquitoes. The human population of South Florida increased from 23,000 in 1900 to 229,000 in 1930, with most of the growth occurring east of the Ridge, although agricultural areas south of Lake Okeechobee were settled by the 1920s. Bythe 1940s, human settlement had begun in areas of potential flooding in the natural Everglades (Solecki et al. in press). Everglades National Park, which was established in 1947 (Tebeau 1990), protected a large, contiguous area from human development. However, because of three major hurricanes in 1947-1948, millions of acres in Central and South Florida were flooded for up to six months; agricultural communities were particularly affected, with major loss of life, property, and cropland (Bottcher and Izuno 1994, Davis and Ogden 1994). Because of these massive floods, Congress authorized the US Army Corps of Engineers to build the Central and Southern Florida (C&SF) Flood Control Project, which was a major turning point for the regional environment (Light and Dineen 1994). The C&SF Flood Control Project was designed solely to support human needs, but it seriously compromised two defining characteristics of the natural Everglades: It reduced their spatial scale and, to reduce flood risks, it eliminated much of the dynamic storage capacity of the system. Management tended to even out the water flow through the sys502 tem, reducing temporal variability (both seasonal and interannual) and associated spatial differences in water flow that were essential to habitat heterogeneity. These effects would lead inevitably to a marked degradation in the Everglades in the following decades that continues to this day. In fact, the Everglades National Park is considered to be the nation's most endangered national park (Solecki et al. in press). The South Florida population increased from 750,000 in 1950 to 4.1 million in 1990 (US Bureau of the Census 1993). The forces driving this growth included increases in the area of flood-controlled land available for development; increased retirement incomes, allowing US retirees to settle in South Florida; increased commercial interests, such as recreation, fisheries, and agriculture; and massive international immigration, initially from Cuba and more recently from the Caribbean and Central America. Moreover, the development of mosquito control and air conditioning permitted yearround comfortable living in South Florida. Although South Florida is one of the fastest growing areas in the United States, the urban corridor is directly adjacent to wilderness. The result is one of the world's steepest gradients in population density, from dense urban development near the coast to less than one person per km 2 (in 1990) just a few km inland (Solecki et al. in press). The continuing high growth rate (a net increase of almost 1 million persons per decade) will result in continuing pressure to develop areas for housing (e.g., through conversion of agricultural lands). Because its population increase occurred relatively recently, South Florida's economy is primarily service based, rather than agricultural or industrial based. Consequently, the human population largely developed without relying directly on the area's natural resources-that is, food is mostly imported, and industrial pollution is limited. However, large-scale agribusiness is located south of Lake Okeechobee, directly in the historical path of water flow between the Lake and the Everglades. Thus, although not directly feeding the South Florida population, the region's agriculture does have a direct impact on the natural environment. Drainage of the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) began in 1883 and continued into the 1950s, when C&SF added control structures, such as levees, dikes, and canals (Bottcher and Izuno 1994, Light and Dineen 1994). The EAA underwent a critical expansion in the 1960s, as the United States eliminated imports of sugar from Cuba and several major sugar production companies moved to the EAA from Cuba (Solecki et al. in press). The EAA now consists of 280,000 ha of highly organic soils that are used primarily for sugarcane and secondarily for rice and winter vegetables. The factors that initially encouraged and supported the growth of EAA agriculture are likely to change in the coming decades. Driving forces for change include globalization of markets and more regional free trade agreements, continuing loss of soil through subsidence, declining political support for sugar price protection, eventual change in the government of Cuba and concomitant changes in United States-Cuba trade policies, and westward expansion of housing developments (Solecki et al. in press). Another significant threat to long-term prospects for EAA sugar production is the broad perception among the public that the dominant cause of degradation in the Everglades is the sugar industry, as demonstrated by a 1996 statewide ballot initiative to impose an environmental tax on sugar. Given the importance of hydrology to the sustainability of the Everglades and the location of the EAA in the middle of the freshwater flow, water management for the EAA has greatly affected the South Florida environment. The historic wet-dry seasons of South Florida require that the EAA be pumped-for drainage in the wet season (May-October) or for irrigation in the dry season (NovemberApril)-to produce commercially viable crops. Drainage has accelerated the oxidation (i.e., decomposition) of organic soils, leading to more than 1.5 m of soil subsidence throughout much of the EAA (Snyder 1994, Snyder and Davidson 1994). This pumping, along with normal surface flow patterns, has led to nutrient BioScience Vol. 47 No. 8 enrichment of the Water Conservation Areas (WCAs) fringing the EAA and to drawdown of stored water from these areas in some especially dry years. Nutrient problems have led to important changes in farm management practices and to major lawsuits among almost all parties involved. A significant component of the lawsuits was settled by the passage of the Everglades Forever Act of 1994, which apportioned costs among the parties to fund construction of fringe marshes, called stormwater treatment areas (STAs), that were designed to filter nutrients. These lawsuits focused attention on the issue of water quality as a major endpoint of restoring Everglades health. One human factor that may not be an inevitable threat to the Everglades is population growth itself. There was a popular misconception during the 1970s and 1980s that population growth threatened the Everglades directly by increasing the demand for water, and it was widely believed that the Everglades could not be restored without reducing the total population of South Floridaa socially and economically unfeasible scenario. However, there appears to be sufficient water for urban, agricultural, and natural environment requirements provided that the system has sufficient storage to capture water that is presently being sent via canals to the Atlantic or Gulf (0 beysekera et al. in press a). The US MAB processconceptual framework Major changes in the environment of the Everglades region have clearly been caused by human choices and activities. Because water distribution within the region is dominated by the complex engineered structures of the C&SF and by active management decisions, the key to restoring and sustaining environmental health in the region is integrating and balancing the needs and choices of both the environmental and human systems. The US MAB project was instituted to take several conceptual frameworks and apply them to the practical solution of this regional environmental problem. Overview of US MAB ecosystem management case study. US MAB September 1997 Figure 3. Conceptual model of ecological Present sustainability. The System possible ecological sustainability states GOal Selecrtio_n ____ align on a continuum, from highly humanFuture altered to prehuman System natural conditions, with many states in Natural-Human between. Societal Changes Possible preferences determine Ecological which specific ecoSustainabi Iity logical state along the States continuum is desired for each part of the landscape. Management goals are to move the present ecological system from a nonsustainable condition toward the desired sustainable system. j was established in 1970 as an international institution to foster understanding of human interactions with the environment. US MAB is sponsored by more than a dozen federal agencies and conducts interdisciplinary research through five research directorates. The strength and uniqueness of the US MAB scientific research program derive from its membership: Each directorate consists of an equal number of natural and social scientists, drawn equally from academic institutions and government. Participants contribute their expertise and experience but do not officially represent their affiliated institutions or agencies. Consequently, US MAB is an independent forum that combines the best elements of interdisciplinarity, academic freedom, scientific objectivity, and real-world experience. In addition to the research program, US MAB designates Biosphere Reserves as sites for promoting ecosystem management through building harmonious relationships between human activities and the conservation of ecosystems and biological diversity (US MAB 1995). Everglades National Park is one Biosphere Reserve. The US MAB Human-Dominated Systems Directorate (HDS) develops generic principles and methods to study human-environment interactions in ecological systems that have been modified by human activities. Only through applying these principles and methods to real-world problems can the science become practical and relevant. Consequently, in 1991, HDS established a core project on ecosystem management for ecological sustainability, seeking to define w ha t ecological sustainability means ecologically and societally, to evaluate patterns of human uses of the environment, to establish ecological sustainability goals, to examine societal factors affecting sustainability, to assess potential policies and institutions to attain ecological sustainability, and to address these issues through a case study on South Florida (Harwell et al. 1991). The overall process became an increasingly interactive, outcome-oriented dialogue among scientists and managers that evolved from a series of traditional workshops to a charette, an intensive two-week retreat at which the participants attempted to synthesize and integrate information and understanding from the natural and social sciences. The foundation of ecosystem management is defining ecological sustainability goals-that is, explicitly deciding what parts of a regional ecosystem are to be protected and maintained at high levels of ecological condition and what parts are to be sacrificed to support the human population and/or to protect core areas. For South Florida, this process is complicated by the heterogeneity of the landscape and the diversity of ecological states that are possible with different levels of human management (Figure 3). At one extreme, the Everglades could be managed as a totally artificial environment (e.g., maintaining enclosures of selected species to be viewed by tourists). At the other extreme, the Everglades could be re503 US MAB steps for asses ing ecological su tainability Th • t B proj t identified a cries of steps to follov to e rablish ecologi al susrainabiliry, These step derive from the ecological ri k a.. e ment frarncv ork and provide a y tcmaric wa to chara rcriz su rainabilir y goal for a regional eco y tern like outh Florida. • develop a on eptual model of human inrera rions with the en ironment (Lo ng and Ilarwell 1995 ) • develop an initial s t of generi ecosystem manag rncnt prin ciple (Ba rru ka et al. in press, • I R 1994 ) • define rh bounds of rh regional c 0 y tcm and id ntify important ccosy t m type (Ha rwe ll and Long 1992 ) • elect ecological cndpoinrs for each osysrem for evaluating the health of the cco y. tern ( .entilc er '11. 1993, Harwell and Long 1992, Harwcll t al. 1990 ) • haracr rizc natural and anrhropogeni stress regim for ea h 'CO Y rem typ (Ha rwell 1992, Harv ell and Long 1992) • characterize the 0 ictal factor and rnechani ms for human ffccrs on e os rem (Lo ng and Harwcll 1995 ) • characterize the I gal, c onomic, in titurionnl, and other so ital fa tor aff ring rho em hani ms (Hama nn and Ank r on 1995, Long and Harwell 1995, olecki tal. in pre s) • characr rize human value ,1I1d 0 ieral prefer ne of rcl vanr interest group • c rablish ccologi '11 usrainabiliry goal in tcrm of ecological end point and human values (Ha rw 11 et al. 1996 ) turned completely to its pre-drainage condition, with natural flows of water throughout the original watershed . Neither extreme is realistic or acceptable to society. However, between these extremes are many different potential ecosystems distributed along a continuum of naturalness versus artificiality, each sustainable if subject to the appropriate management system. What types of sustainable ecological systems are possible is a scientific issue that is determined by the ecosystem itself, but the particular ecological system that is selected is a societal decision, made either explicitly or de facto. However, societal values and goals may shift over time. This shift is illustrated by the public's past desire to drain wetlands to al low human settlements, to support the agricultural industry with water that historically flowed into the Everglades, and to provide flood protection for urban development, whereas more recent societal goals are to restore the Everglades and Florida Bay and to protect endan504 gered species. Overlying this dynamic societal situation, ecological systems are themselves also complex and highly dynamic, varying naturally even in the absence of human influences. Thus, ecosystems change as the result of both natural processes (e.g., succession and disturbancerecovery cycles) and anthropogenic influences. Ideally, appropriate societa 1 policies and institutions could be developed both to direct the changes in ecosystems necessary to achieve sustainability goals and to maintain the appropriate societal controls that are required for longterm ecological sustainability . Two major workshops were convened to address the ecological and societal issues of ecological sustainability in South Florida. The ecological workshop was held at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science at the University of Miami in May 1992 to identify the regional boundaries and ecosystems of concern for South Florida, ecological endpoints for characterizing the present and prospective health of those ecosystems, tentative ecological sustainability goals (i.e., de sired ecological conditions), and the anthropogenic and natural stresses impinging on the ecosystems (Harwell and Long 1992). The second workshop was convened in]uly 1993 in Easton, Maryland, to address the counterpart societal issues, including the historic and current legal, policy, economic, and institutional framework of South Florida, and to seek cross-cutting factors that relate societal actions to ecological sustainability (Long and Harwe1l1995). The US MAB project followed the "problem formulation component" of the ecological risk assessment paradigm that was developed for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1992, Harwell and Gentile 1992) in response to the recognition that traditional risk assessment methodology (NRC 1983) is inadequate to address the range of environmental stressors and ecological endpoints that must be considered in ecological risk assessments. This inadequacy reflects the facts that ecological risks entail a broad suite of chemical and nonchemical stressors of natural and anthropogenic origin, acting both individually and in concert, whereas traditional risk assessment has a single-chemical focus, and that ecological systems have many characteristics of concern, termed ecological endpoints, whereas human risk assessments emphasize a single characteristic, cancer. Consequently, the ecological risk assessment process extends previous risk assessment methods (Gentile et a1. 1993): stress and ecological effects characterizations proceed in parallel; endpoints are selected based on their ecological and social importance (Harwell et a1. 1990); and the problem formulation component identifies the stressors, end points, analytical methods, and conceptual model of the systems at risk. The US MAB project has supplemented this ecological risk assessment approach with components that are relevant to ecological sustainability issues (see box this page). In preparation for the synthesis part of the US MAB project, additional tasks included: • development of a centralized geographical information system BioScience Vol. 47 No. 8 (GIS) database for South Florida for sharing information among the MAB participants and for exploring specific human-environment relationships; the GIS database includes natural and societal information, such as current and historical distributions of vegetation, soils, climate, dernographics, and economic characteristics (Solccki et al. 1995); • development of an extensive bibliography (Borden and Landers 1996) concerning the South Florida regional environmental and societal systems and generic methods and principles of human-environment interactions, ecological risk assessment, and ecosystem management; • initiation of mechanism-oriented research on human-environment interactions, including analysis of economic processes relevant to South Florida; analysis of the current and historical legal and institutional framework for South Florida (Harnann and Ankerson 1995); examination of the current (human-altered) and historical (natural) hydrological system of South Florida (Obeysekera et al. in press a); analysis of international trade, economic, soils degradation, and other factors affecting the sustainability of the sugar industry in the EAA (c. Harwell et a1. in press); examination of alternative agricultural possibilities for the EAA; and study of the broader constitutional issue of "takings" as related to regional environmental management (Tisher 1994). The results of the ecological and socieral workshops and the subsequent research activities formed the technical foundations for the third, and defining, activity of the case study-the charette convened on Isle au Haut, Maine, in June 1994. The charette was intended to provide a setting in which approximately 50 social and natural scientists, supplemented by South Florida environmental decision makers, could interact to achieve integration of the various components into an overall assessment of ecosystem management for South Florida. Working groups September 1997 Isle au Haut ecosystem management principles At the charcrre on lsl au Ham, the MAB project d velop d a et of principle for eco y tern management ( M B 1994 ). The e prin iples e .pand on th concept developed by the lnrera 'cncy E 0 ystcrn Management Task Force (IEM T F 199-a, 199-b). • u e an ologi al approa h that would recover and maintain the biologi al diver iry, e ological function, and defining characteri tic of natural e o. y tern • r eo mize that human ar part of eco y terns, and they hap and arc hap d by rh natural y tern -that i .jhe u rainabiliry of e ological and ocieral y rem arc mutually d pendent • adopt a management approach that recognize that ecosy terns and in tirurion ar haracreri tically hererogcneou in time and pace • inregrar u rained economic and community a rivity into the management of e 0 y terns • develop a hared vi ion of desired ondition for so ietal y t ms and ecologi al ysrcms • provide for ecosy tern gov rnan e at appropriate ccologi al and in rirurional cale • u adaptive management a the mechani m for achi ving both de ired ourcom and n w under tanding regarding eco y tern conditions • inre zrare the be t cience availabl into the deci ion-making procc s, \ hile conrinuin cienrific re earch to reduce unccrrainrie • implement eo y tern management principle through oordi nared zovernrnent and nongovernment plan and activitie were established to complete development of the frameworks for ecological sustainability and for ecological-societal interactions (Harwell and Gentile in press, Solecki et al. in press); to develop ecological susrainability goals for the region (M. Harwell et al. in press); to reach consensus on the characteristic qualities of the historical Everglades as a benchmark for assessing sustainability goals (Browder et al. in press); to refine and finalize generic ecosystem management principles (see box this page; Bartuska et al. in press, US MAB 1994); to develop an improved understanding of the hydrological system, historically and currently (Obeysekera et al. in press a); to develop plausible regional scenarios of alternate management regimes for the hydrological system (Obeysekera et al. in press b); to evaluate the consequences of the scenarios to the ecological systems of the Everglades (Ogden et a!. in press); to evaluate the consequences of the scenarios to societal systems (c. Harwell et al. in press); and to explore issues of governance and institutional development that are consistent with ecosystem management tor South Florida (M. Harwell et a!. in press b). The scenarios and results To examine the environmental effects of human actions, the case study used an approach called scenario consequence analyses. In this approach, a hypothetical set of conditions, or scenarios, are developed that are internally consistent and scientifically defensible and that specify factors needed to evaluate effects (Harwell and Hutchinson 1985). The scenarios provide a structured way to assess the implications of management actions for both ecological and social systems. They allow effects to be analyzed even when data or understanding are inadequate or situations are unkn owable. This approach makes it possible to compare the relative costs and benefits of alternative management strategies, provid505 Figure 4. A scenari o fro m the US MAB charette that offers the pot ent ial for mutual susrainabiliry of th e Everglades and agricultura l systems. The core protection area includes all publicly held cont iguous wetland s of the or iginal Everglades wa tershed with increased natural sheetflow across .the water con servation areas, Big Cypre ss National Preserve, and Everglades N at ional Pa rk. Water sto ra ge and supply buffer functions are p rovided by adjace n t ar ea s, esp ecially the EAA and Lake Oke echobee. An east coast buffer strip provides habitat protection , gro undwa ter seepage, and limits to urb an development. t/vl c • ing a stron g basis for selecting among options. The specificity of scena rios allo ws full exploration of relati on ships between acti ons and effects at a level of resolution not possible fro m generic analyses. T his a pproac h can yield important insights and iden tify areas where furth er research or ana lysis is needed. Scenarios were developed at the charette to explore a range of spati all y ex plicit management options that might lead to ecological and social sustainability in the Everglades and South Florida. This process re flect ed the consensus th at the current spatial extent and patterns of eco logy and hydrology suppo rt neith er a susta ina ble Everglad es nor a sustaina ble South Flo rid a ecosystem (Browder et al. in press, Davis and Ogden 1 99 4, H ar well a nd Long 1992 , Scien ce SubGroup 19 93 ). Th e cha rette developed th e specific cha racte ristics th at define the essence of the Ever glades a nd, thu s, the cha ra cteristics that constitute ec o lo gi ca l s us t ai n abi li t y goa ls (Bro w de r et al. in pr ess, H arwell et al. 19 96) . Consequence ana lysis was done to evaluate th e eco lo gi ca l sustaina bility of each scena ri o- th at 506 Core is, th e degree to which a scenar io co uld reco ver th e definin g eco logica l cha racteristics of th e regional landscape mo saic. Societal sustaina bility was assessed by measu rin g the degree to which th e hist o rical agricultural community of th e region could be maintained in the face of severe pressures from development, soil degradation, and environmental and political liabil iti es. Each scena rio includes all existing management systems plus man agement changes th at have been authorized but not yet im p lemented, includ in g the Kiss immee Ri ver Restoration Proj ect (which will unchannelize th at ri ver ), a series of h ydrolo gic impro veme n ts fo r water treatment a n d impro ved h ydrop eri ods i n th e EAA a n d W CAs, st ru ct ura l a nd ope rati onal changes for so me m ajor drainage canal s, and acq uisi t io n o f ce rta in priv atel y held land in sou the as tern Dade Co un ty (Florida Governor's Commission Rep ort 1995 ). Hydrological anal yses ind icated th at the combinati on of all of these actions still leaves th e system with the following deficiencies: • insufficient storage of water in Lak e Okeechobee without damaging th e Lake ecosystem; • lack of dynamic storage space to ca pture regulatory releases from Lak e Okeechobee and the EAA for use within the Everglades and the lower east coast during dr y time s; • abno rma l water depths and altered sheetflow patterns resulting fro m levees and other barriers to water flow; • seepage losses to the east, from both the W CAs and Everglades N ati onal Park, caused by low er wa ter tables in the immediate vicinity of the lower east coa st protective levee; • insufficient dynamic storage space to capture lower east coast sto rmwater runoff for use by natu ral and human systems; • loss of a substa nt ial portion of th e original cor e area of the Everglades and associated loss of hyd roperiod s and reduction of wa ter levels in these are as; • int erruption of sheetflo w to th e cur rent core area from upstrea m wetlands lost to urb an development; • lack of adequate sur face and gro undwater conditions throughout th e short-hydro period mad pra iries of the southern Everglades. T hese limitations will result in a continuing decline of the reg ional eco syst em if further major modifications to the water management system ar e not implemented. The US MAB scenarios were developed to explore po ssible regional man agement regimes to correct these and ot he r deficien cies. Scenarios differed by size and location of core and buffer areas, based on the Biosphere Reser ve con cept (H arw ell and Long 1992 ). Co re area s are defined by th e ec o log ica l ch aracteri stics of the pr edraina ge Everglades [i.e., at th e most natural part of th e ecological susta inab ility spectr um [Figure 3]). Core a reas in th e scena rios ranged fro m the current boundaries of Ever glades N ati onal Park (dete rm ined to be insuffi cient to achi eve susta ina bility) to the boundaries of all the cur rentl y owned public lands connected to Everglad es National Park (includ- BioScience Vol. 47 N o. 8 ing the WCAs, Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida Keys National Ma rine Sanctuary, Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Lake Okeechobee, and other areas to be acquired). The larger core area was deemed sufficiently large for ecological sustainability, provided that adequate buffer areas were added. Consequently, the scenarios also varied in the nature and extent of buffer areas. Buffer areas are in the middle of the ecological spectrum; they serve mainly as support systems to the core areas (e.g., water storage and supply) or to the human population (e.g., water supply, flood protection, or enhancement of water quality), and their ecological qualities are of secondary importance. One particular scenario was considered to be capable of meeting the sustainability goals (Figure 4). In this scenario, more flood control water is released from Lake Okeechobee into the Everglades system; the natural dynamic storage capacity at the upper end of the Everglades basin is reinstated; and more natural patterns of sheetflow, hydroperiods, and hydro patterns throughout the Everglades and more natural volume and timing of water flow int o coastal ecosystems are established. This scenario will require not only dynamic water storage capacity, but also the capacity to move large volumes of water quickly into the storage areas and to release it slowly to simulate natural sheetflow downstream. Increased demands on water for natural system support would be counterbalanced by recovery of additional water released to tide and reduction of seepage loss from water storage areas. This scenario has a greatly ex panded core area, with water supply function provided by new storage areas located in the EAA, more natural water patterns for Lake Okeechobee, and development of an extended east coast buffer zone along the entire boundary between the core and urban areas. The proposed buffer area, called a Water Protection Area (WPA), would be a contiguous system of interconnected marsh areas, detention reservoirs, seepage barriers, and water treatment areas along the eastern side of the lower east coast protective levee. Agriculture would be altered to allow increased September 1997 D . • ., D .' r2J t~ 0 El Figure 5. Preferred alternative for the South Florida ecosystem. This map is a US MAB representation of the conceptual plan and preferred alternative of the Florida Governor's Commission for a Sustainable South Florida (Florida Governor's Commission 1995, 1996). The major elements of this plan conform to the US MAB scenario: Storage and release of low-nutrient water for reestablishment of natural hydroperiods are done by conversion of some agricultural lands in the southern part of the EAA and by modifications to management of Lake Okeechobee. The Water Preservation Areas provide a barrier to water seepage to the east and a barrier to urban development moving west. The redesign of canals and levees in the WCA and Big Cypress areas will open a much larger contiguous area for natural hydroperiods. Increased water flow through the Everglades will improve the health of Florida Bay. Higher water tables in the EAA will reduce soil loss, thus enhancing the long-term viability of agriculture in the EAA. elevation of the water table to the surface , eliminating soil subsidence . Incentives could be instituted in support of flooded agriculture, water storage, and acquisition of land in the EAA, These agricultural management changes could make EAA agriculture itself sustainable, reducing its risk of conversion to more damaging fo rms of agriculture (i.e., crops other than sugar or rice) or to residential development, which would be even more damaging. Although much remains to be done to model and refine the scenario into actual restoration plans, this scenario offers a win-win situation, in which ecological and agricultural sustainability are mutually dependent. An active process has been insti tuted since the charette to bring the ideas, methods, scenarios, and ana ly- 507 ses of the US MAB project into the extensive ongoing dialogue concerning the future of the regional environment of South Florida. The federal-level activities are coordinated through a hierarchy of interagency groups. A major focus of the federal activities is the comprehensive study that is under way by the US Army Corps of Engineers to redesign the structure and operations of the C&SF Project. The state-level activities are led by the Florida Governor's Commission on a Sustainable South Florida, which has recently reached consensus on an overall plan for the regional environment (Figure 5; Florida Governor's Commission 1996) that closely follows the preferred scenario developed by US MAB. The US MAB project has clearly been the source of a paradigm shift within this dialogue from "what do we do?" to "how can ecosystem management solve our sustainability problems?" However, much work remains to be done to build a shared vision of a sustainable South Florida and to implement the ecosystem management principles that are essential for regional sustainability (Florida Governor's Commission 1995, 1996, Harwell et al. 1996, M. Harwell et al. in press b). Lessons from the ecosystem management case study The process of the US MAB case study provides lessons that can be applied to other ecosystem management activities. The most important lessons relate to how to facilitate the unusually interdisciplinary and integrative work necessary for applying conceptual ideas of ecosystem management and ecological risk assessment to solving real-world environmental problems. The team. Central to the success of this case study was recruiting a team of scientists and decision makers who could expand beyond their individual perspectives to do truly integrative thinking. This team-building includes several key elements. In terdisciplinarity. The participants represented a broad diversity of disciplines, including, for example, not only ecologists working with hydrologists and climatologists, but 508 also natural scientists from other disciplines (e.g., geology, agronomy, and systems science), social scientists (including economists, demographers, social geographers, anthropologists, legal scholars, and management scientists), and technology specialists (e.g., GIS and modeling). Development of an integrative group. The individual participants not only had to function within their disciplinary perspectives, but also had to be able and willing to subsume individual perspectives for the integrated whole. We found that this ability is uncommon. A core integrative group must evolve over time, coalescing around those individuals capable of making this essential transition. Development of group perspectives. Participants had to gain a suf- ficient understanding of the languages and thought processes by which different disciplines think about and approach problems. Different disciplines often use the same words to mean different concepts, so basic assumptions of the meaning of words had to be considered more carefully. In addition, having sufficient time to engage fully in discussion, to broaden individual perspectives, and to reach collective consensus is essential. There are no shortcuts to this process. One mechanism for achieving this group perspective was to facilitate a strong sense of camaraderie among the participants. The charette, in which the group was brought together in a remote location for almost two weeks to concentrate their intellectual, as well as personal, interactions was the culmination of that organization. Multifaceted affiliations. The mixture of academic scientists, government scientists, and nonscientist decision makers, working in an open, equitable mode with all participants providing their expertise and knowledge as individuals rather than as representatives of their agencies, resulted in an important merging of real-world perspectives and experiences with the best academic qualities, such as theoretical constructs, objectivity, and independence of thought. Avoidance of regulatory constraints. The Federal Advisory Com- mittee Act (FACA), which restricts advisory input to many federal decisions to federal employees or legislatively designated advisory groups, significantly constrains agency scientists from gaining a broader perspective through outreach to the academic community. The US MAB process builds on maximizing communications among scientists irrespective of their institutional affiliations. Unfortunately, one scientist's affiliated agency constrained his participation through a misinterpretation of FACA applicability. FACA has recently been modified to allow participation by state and local government personnel and by tribes, but impediments to the involvement of academic and nongovernmental scientists remain, contrary to the necessity of ecosystem management. The process. In addition to using the right team, it was also clear that specific process steps were necessary to apply ecosystem management principles. We learned several important lessons about the process. Utility of a case study. Clearly, much can be accomplished by bringing together an ad hoc group of scientists to develop new principles related to ecology (e.g., the group assembled by the Ecological Society of America that produced the Sustainable Biosphere Initiative; Lubchenco et al. 1991). However, significant advancement in environmental management requires not just developing generic principles but applying these to a specific case study, with its specific issues, analyses, and potential solutions. Utility ofthe scenario consequence approach. The project showed how specific scenarios can be useful for analysis. Through specifying details of the management system that would be associated with alternate regional strategies, the specific hydrological, ecological, and societal consequences could be evaluated. Development of a shared scientific vision through workshops and the charette. Workshops are com- mon mechanisms to address interdisciplinary issues. This project took that process one step further by orchestrating major workshops, preparatory research and analysis tasks, and the culminating charette. Each workshop began with clearly stated objectives and products to be gener- BioScience Vol. 47 No. 8 ated. Workshop reports captured the essence of the discussions in a detailed format. The charette itself was most effective, providing the intensity and prolonged focus on the problem that allowed new perspectives to emerge that otherwise would not have developed. Expanding this scientific perspective to a broader, shared vision among stakeholders is a continuing process required by ecosystem management principles (IEMTF 1995a, 1995b, US MAB 1994). Timing. The US MAB core project benefited from several events over the past few years concerning both ecosystem management and the South Florida environment. The timing was in part fortuitous, and in part anticipatory by the US MAB group. Development and application of ecosystem management approaches were made possible by technological advances in remote sensing, database management, and modeling and by theoretical advances in ecological risk assessment. The continued explosive development of the South Florida human community and the continuing degradation of the environment create the imperative for an ecosystems management framework for South Florida to be implemented soon if this regional ecosystem is not to be lost irretrievably. Impact on the decision-making process. Currently, a complex and active process is under way to coordinate research and policy issues related to the South Florida environment. This process includes a federal interagency task force and associated committees, the White House Task Force on Ecosystem Management (IEMTF 1995a, 1995b); the Governor's Commission for a Sustainable South Florida (Florida Governor's Commission 1995,1996); and the Florida Department of Environmental Protection's Ecosystem Management Initiative (FDEP 1994). The US MAB project, although distinct from each of these, has significantly affected the dialogue of those governmental deliberations, including recognition of the imperative for an ecosystem management approach. The scenarios developed by US MAB provided a potential win-win situation for ecological and agricultural sustainability-that is, developing innovative solutions that September 1997 agencies themselves might be constrained from offering; as a result, our scenarios provided a focal point for the subsequent phase of governmental activities. Thus, US MAB had the ability to speak as an objective group both to environmentalist groups, with the message of the positive role of the sugar industry in the solution of the environmental problems, as well as to sugar industry groups, with the message of the necessity for sugar to modify its position to sustain itself. Pivotal events. Several pivotal events affected project development or fundamentally affected the conclusions reached. • The US MAB group recognized that there actually is sufficient water in the South Florida system under most circumstances to meet the present and projected future needs of urban society, agricultural industry, and the environment, if the proper storage systems were designed. This realization fundamentally changed the commonly held perspective that the issue is one of competition for limited water among urban, agricultural, and ecological needs. • The group was challenged by a single scientist who questioned the assumption of the inherent incompatibility of the sugar industry with environmental goals, a consistent theme of environmental groups in Florida. The group responded to this challenge by reexamining our assumptions and eventually recognizing the mutual dependency of ecological and agricultural sustainability. • The group recognized that the sugar industry and associated societal systems are at risk from various factors, including potential loss of price supports, potential end of prohibitions on Cuban sugar importation, increase of soil degradation through oxidation of drained peats, and the almost inevitable conversion of agricultural lands into more financially rewarding housing developments. This understanding led to the recognition that if any human activities are to occur in the critical lands between Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades, the sugar industry is among the most environmentally benign. This recognition does not mean that sugargrowing practices do not need to be improved to protect water quality and hydroperiod, nor does it imply that some of the acreage devoted to sugar cultivation could not be converted to more natural systems, but it does shift the debate toward new solutions. • The group recognized that the essence of the Everglades has to be redefined at a higher level than the detailed ecological endpoints, articulating those overall characteristics that make the historical Everglades what they were ecologically and societally. This recognition did not negate the detailed ecological endpoints discussions. Instead, it placed the endpoints in the context of measuring how well an ecosystem management plan is working once it is implemented, rather than constituting them as the sustainability goals themselves. Flexibility. These and other examples highlight the need to be opportunistic and adaptive in the development of the project. The team's ability to adapt was more than matched by the flexibility of US MAB in accommodating changes in approach. Initial assumptions and methods were occasionally discarded when they proved insupportable or inefficient. A reexamination of what we were doing, the fundamental bases for the approach, and the plans for affecting the case study continued well beyond the initial two major workshops, up to the time of the charette. However, because of the unique perspectives gained at the charette, we have subsequently focused on further analysis, documentation, outreach to the decision-making community, and presenting and defending our conclusions. The lesson is adaptability at appropriate times, and resolution at other times. Issues of hierarchy. The development of a hierarchical view of ecology during the past decade (e.g., O'Neill et al. 1986) was extended by the US MAB project to include societal systems for managing the environment. The US MAB scientists highlighted the hierarchical nature of societal systems and the necessity for developing governance systems that are appropriate to the scale and hierarchy of the environment declared. For example, Florida is fortunate to 509 have water management districts defined by the boundaries of watersheds (rather than political boundaries), and that scale is appropriate for many water management decisions. But a federal/state interagency institution had to be created to address the larger-scale and longer-term issues of regional sustainability. Technological tools. The integrated GIS-based database system was essential. This system, in which the existing spatially explicit databases generated by various agencies and academic institutions were collated into commonly used software on a fast computer platform, allowed a common framework for bringing together disparate information bases through which scientists from diverse disciplines could ask questions in their own terms and from their own perspectives. Furthermore, the graphical representation of data in real time, while discussions were taking place (especially in generating maps of various scenarios during the charette), immensely improved the ability of decision makers and scientists-even those who had worked on South Florida issues for years-to genuinely understand relationships among systems and consequences of policies. Institutional support of us MAR. One important lesson learned is the value of the institutional support and credibility provided by US MAB to the HDS case study. Following extensive peer review, US MAB awarded modest funding to the study, and matching support provided by the university and institutional affiliates of each project participant significantly leveraged those resources. More important, US MAB gave the HDS the scope to develop innovative approaches and ideas, the flexibility for the project to be modified as it proceeded, and the standing to gain recognition among governmental agencies for the value and validity of our approach. Less flexible research funding from more traditional sources might not have allowed the project to develop fully. The personal support of the US MAB executive director and the present and immediate past chairpersons of the US MAB National Committee was critical. The outcome. A central tenet of US MAB ecosystem management 510 principles is to develop a shared vision of the ecosystem management approach to environmental decision making, as well as the specific potential solutions to the problems of sustainability of the South Florida ecological and societal systems. However, we found that the analyses could initially be performed, and solutions proposed, only by an appropriate scientific group that does not purport to represent the diversity of stakeholders in the region. By developing ideas in an open, scientific forum without agency or political constraints, much of the contentious debate typical of regional environmental issues could be bypassed. Nature of the problem. A critical aspect of this case study was the inherent great interest of the problem, which derives from the importance of the Everglades regional ecosystem; from the criticality of the moment, at which the future of the South Florida environment as an ecologically sustainable system is in serious doubt; and from the generic nature of the problem, in which methodological developments may be applicable to solving other classes of environmental problems. Whatever the motivation, the participants in the US MAB research project contributed an extraordinary measure of time, energy, and reflection, all of which were essential for its success. Although these lessons are offered as guidance for other ecosystem management activities or, more broadly, for other interdisciplinary environmental problem solving, we recognize that many aspects of our approach are unique to the system under study or the environmental decision at hand. Nevertheless, the time has come to take interdisciplinary discussions beyond the theoretical and into the applied. The process continues, both through the extension of the US MAB network of scientists to develop further the ecological sustainability goals and endpoints and to expand considerably the analyses of societal effects and feedbacks, and through continued scientific support to the Governor's Commission as it is developing its "preferred alternative" for regional management (Florida Governor's Commission 1996, M. Harwell et al. in press). This continuing process, in fact, illustrates one of the most important lessons to be gained from the process: Ecological sustainability of an ecosystem as valuable and as human-dominated as the South Florida regional environment requires ongoing scientific research, adaptive approaches to management, and continued vigilance. Acknowledgments This article is contribution number US MAB HDS 008 of the US Man and the Biosphere (US MAB) Human-Dominated Systems Directorate (HDS) Series. US MAB is administered by the US Department of State as a multiagency, collaborative, interdisciplinary research activity to advance the scientific understanding of human-environment interactions. This article does not necessarily represent the policies of US MAB, the US Department of State, or any member agency of US MAB. The article derives from the collaborative efforts of many scientists, from both natural and social scientific disciplines, who participated in two preliminary workshops (Harwell and Long 1992) and the Isle au Haut charette (Harwell et al. 1996). Carlos Rivero, Allyn Landers, and Steve Tosini provided GIS support. Winnie Park and South Florida Water Management District are gratefully acknowledged for providing the map of South Florida (Figure 1). I particularly wish to thank Ann Bartuska, Jack Gentile, Chris Harwell, John Long, Vicky Myers, Bill Solecki, and two anonymous reviewers for their comments and ideas for this article. Funding for this case study has been provided by grant number 1753400108 to the University of Miami from the US Department of State, with subcontracts to the University of Florida, Florida State University, State University of New York at Buffalo, and the University of Maine. The University of Miami Rosenstiel School and each subcontracting institution contributed substantial financial and other resources to the project. Additional funding was provided by the US Army Corps of Engineers Waterways Experiment Station under contract DACW 39-94-K0032 to the University of Miami. BioScience Vol. 47 No. 8 References cited Bartuska A, Harwell MA, Myers V. In press. Conceptual framework II: ecosystem management. Ecological Applications. Borden J, Landers A, compilers. 1996. 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Available from: US MAB Secrerariat, OES/EGC/MAB, SA-44C, Washington, DC 20522. RELIABILITY and AFFORDABILITY FEATURING: • Precise temperature control. • M od e ls available without lighrs or with various li~htin~ configurutions. • Comprehensive 2-year ~uaranteed warranty program. PER CI L fh nrt HCO"II'ORAT&D al H C I: , • • • 512 BioScience Vol. 47 No. 8
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