Electoral Systems and the Representation of Ethnic Minorities: Evidence from Russia Author(s): Robert G. Moser Reviewed work(s): Source: Comparative Politics, Vol. 40, No. 3 (Apr., 2008), pp. 273-292 Published by: Ph.D. Program in Political Science of the City University of New York Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20434082 . Accessed: 08/05/2012 11:57 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Ph.D. Program in Political Science of the City University of New York is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Comparative Politics. http://www.jstor.org Electoral Systemsand theRepresentationofEthnic Minorities Evidence from Russia Robert G.Moser Scholars have long noted thatstateswith significant ethnic cleavages face difficult obsta cles to themaintenance of democracy and that these problems are most severe in new democracies.1 As a result, scholars have looked primarily to institutions as a means to helpethnically dividedstatesovercometheseobstaclesandsuccessfully implant democ racy in the face of deep ethnic cleavages.2 Achieving broadrepresentation ofdifferent ethnic groups has important forthe implications stability and quality of democracy, particularly inpolities just emerging out of long peri odsofauthoritarian rule.3 Legislativerepresentation carriespowerful symbolic powerfor ethnicminorities and often becomes an end in itself even when minorities have littleor no chance of participating in the governing coalition.4 It is often taken as a matter of faith thatproportional representation (PR) increases minorityrepresentation while electoralsystems with singlememberdistricts(SMD) exclude minorities from legislative representation.Lijphart argues thatproportional rep resentation, forexample, is not only better than singlemember districts but is superior to all other electoral institutions(for example, the alternative vote, reserved seats forminor itygroups,andmixed electoralsystems)inpromoting minorityrepresentation.5 While advocates of proportional representation acknowledge thepossibility thatminorities can gain representation under certain conditions in other electoral systems, it is still viewed as providing crucial advantages. As Lijphart explains, "the beauty of PR is that in addi tiontoproducing proportionality andminorityrepresentation, ittreats all groups-eth nic, racial, religious, or even noncommunal groups-in a completely equal and evenhanded fashion.Why deviate from fullPR at all?"6 Despite the scholarly consensus in favorof proportional representation, there is sur prisingly little PR systems empirical evidencethat providebetterrepresentation ofethnic minorities than SMD systems.7This article offers a model of electoral system effects on minority representation and a set of hypotheses concerning how PR and SMD electoral ruleswill affectdifferent categoriesof ethnicminoritiesundercertainconditions. Patterns of minority representation under PR and SMD electoral arrangements are then 273 Comparative Politics April 2008 examined inRussia using a unique dataset that identifies the ethnicity of individual leg islators. Russia employeda mixed electoralsystemduringtheperiodof investigation, which allowed voters to cast two ballots, one for a party list in a PR contest and one for an individual candidate in a singlemember district. This system affords the opportunity representation whilehold of different electoralrulesonminority toexaminetheimpact ing social conditions constant through the comparison of thePR and SMD tiersofmixed systems in a single country.8This study also has the advantage of examining minority representation at the level of individual legislators rather than studying the electoral suc cess of ethnic parties. Data on individual legislators are essential to captureminority rep resentation through bothethnicand nonethnicparties.Finally,theRussian case is importantbecause of thevirtual absence of ethnic parties in this country.The lack of eth nic parties is a product of demography (most notably small ethnic groups) and actions by theRussian state,which has passed legislation thatseverely restrictsthe formationof eth nic or religious parties and campaigning on explicitly ethnic issues.9 Thus, this study examines the impact of electoral rules in a contextwhere ethnic parties do not play a sig nificantroleinelectoral politics. The findings presented here offer a challenge to the conventional wisdom thatPR systems generally are more conducive tominority representation than SMD systems. Instead, it is shown that, first,the effectsof electoral systems are highly conditional on a moreassimilated factors, ethnicgroups and institutional number ofdemographic second, witness no significant differences in representation across electoral systems, and third, each typeof system provides advantages over theother forcertain typesof ethnicminori ties,with neither PR nor SMD elections being advantageous more often than the other. Consequently, various demographic and political factors, including group size, geo mitigatetheinflu ethnicfederalism, and culturalassimilation, graphicconcentration, ence of electoral systems on minority representation and thusmust be taken into account thisrelationship. whenexamining Electoral Systems and Minority Representation inNational Legislatures The ability of ethnicminorities towin legislative seats is usually seen as a consequence of electoral systems and the size and geographic concentration ofminority populations.'0 The argument thatPR systems foster the representation of ethnicminorities has typical ly rested on the idea that they encourage the emergence of ethnic parties. Proportional representation encourages theiremergence by lowering the electoral thresholdnecessary to gain representation, thereby increasing thenumber of parties and making smaller eth nic parties more viable.11 This result can be seen particularly in ethnically divided soci eties with PR systems that have very high district magnitudes and very low legal 274 RobertG.Moser thresholds, whichprovidefewobstaclestoelectionforeventhesmallest parties.Perhaps thebest example of how proportional representation can promote the election ofminori tyethnicgroupsthrough ethnicpartiesis Israel,whichhad sevenpartiesrepresenting specific ethnic or religious constituencies out of a totalof twelve parties winning seats in the2006parliamentary electionstotheKnesset.12 Additionally, thegreater proportional ityof PR systems provides incentives for all parties to field a more diverse set of candi dates in order to capture ethnic voting blocs, since even small increases in a party's vote share could mean more legislative seats.13 While generally viewed as inferiorto PR systems, singlemember districts also can be conducive tominority representation under certain conditions. The election of ethnic minorities in SMD systems tends to be based on geographic concentration and the abili tyof a minority group to constitute a criticalmass within a given electoral district. In so existfortheemergence calledmajority-minority ofethnic districts, opportunities parties, which can displace one of themajor parties within theirhome regions (for example, the Bloc Quebe'cois inQuebec), while major parties feel pressure to nominate more minori ty candidates, as seen in theUnited States."4 Thus, geographic concentration can over come the bias against small (ethnic) parties and minority candidates under plurality systems. 15 Thus, under the rightcircumstances, both PR and SMD systems allow forminority betweenthemlies in theconditionsthatpromote representation. The distinction mobi lization around ethnic parties and/ornomination ofminority candidates bymajor parties. is expectedtoprovideany ethnicminority, Essentially, proportionalrepresentation whether it is geographically concentrated or not, the ability to gain representation throughan ethnic party and/or ethnic balancing onmajor parties' lists,whereas plurality systems are expected only to promote minority representation for ethnic groups that reach a criticalmass within majority-minority electoral districts. From thisperspective, giventhatproportional representation is expectedtopromote minorityrepresentation under a greater number of circumstances than singlemember districts, itspreferred sta tus remains intact even when acknowledging the prospect of minority representation underothersystems. A Model of Ethnic Representation Clearly, studies of electoral system effectson ethnic representation tend to view the elec tion of ethnic minorities through the prism of ethnic voting -the tendency of ethnic groups to vote for coethnic candidates or parties when given the opportunity.However, to view minority representation as solely emanating fromethnicmobilization is too sim plistic, formembers of ethnicminorities gain election through a variety of ways, often with considerable support from themajority population. In contrast, a model of ethnic 275 Comparative Politics April 2008 Figure 1 A Model ofMinority Representation LOW Level of Ethnic Mobilization HIGH ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~r Assimilation: EthnicMobilization: Reliant upon minimal co-ethnic Reliant upon maximal PR: Manifest through election by parties across the political spectrum. PR: Manifest through election by ethnic parties. electoralsupport. SMD: SMDs Manifest through election in dominated by majority electoralsupport. SMD: Manifest co-ethnic through election in minority-majority districts. population. representation can be based on the notion of a continuum from ethnic mobilization to assimilation. The central causal element of this continuum is the relative level of support from theircoethnic voting constituency thatminority candidates must rely upon to gain election. Figure 1 illustrates themajor assumptions of themodel. Ethnic mobilization represents themost common conception of how minority can didates and ethnic parties gain election. In thismodel, the election of ethnicminorities is contingent upon the electoral mobilization of coethnic voters."6 It is assumed that the winning minority candidate or ethnic party gains all or a vast majority of its electoral support from its targetethnic constituency.Under PR rules, this type ofmobilization is manifest through ethnic parties. In SMD systems, ethnicmobilization ismarked by the mobilization of coethnic support for a minority candidate. Such mobilization may be channeled through an ethnic party (for example, the Bloc Quebecois in Canada), a nonethnic party (for example, theDemocratic Party in theUnited States), or no party at all. Regardless of the nature of partisanship, the central dynamic of ethnicmobilization remains the same: the candidate relies primarily upon coethnic voters forelectoral victo ry. Minority representationthroughethnicmobilization requires thatthewinming candidate or party assemble an ethnic-based constituency capable of overcoming the electoral threshold for representation.The conventional wisdom presumes that the relative thresh old of PR systems tends to be much lower (depending on the districtmagnitude of the system) than thatof plurality systems, inwhich thewinner must capture a plurality of the 276 Robert G. Moser vote, typically approaching 50 percent. This lower relative threshold lies at the heart of betweenseatsandvotesunderPR rules.However,plurality proportionality thegreater systems in countries with noninstitutionalized party systems such as Russia tend to have partysystems, withmore institutionalized thancountries greaterpartyfragmentation Moreover, representation.17 withproportional conditions usuallyassociated thuscreating itmust be remembered that the absolute vote threshold forgaining a single seat in the legislature is actually lower in SMD systems, since itusually takes fewervotes towin in one district than to gain even a small percentage (for example, 5 percent) of thenational vote. This caveat is important to keep inmind for very small ethnic groups with geo graphically concentrated populations. Under a PR system, such groups may be unable to field an ethnic party that could be viable and may be less attractive as candidates in a within awinningelectoralconstituency strategy butmay stillconstitute ticket-balancing a single or handful of singlemember electoral districts. The assimilation model assumes thatmembers of an ethnicminority requiremini mal or no support from coethnics in order to gain representation.This model represents thediametrically opposite set of outcomes compared to those seen throughethnicmobi ethnic mobilization,theethnic achievedthrough lization because,unlikerepresentation background of the candidate from assimilated minorities becomes a virtual nonfactor, allowing theminority candidate towin election with support from themajority popula tion.Under PR rules thisoutcome is characterized by the election ofminority candidates among parties across the political spectrum rather thanminority nominations concen trated in ethnic,multiethnic, or nonethnic parties thatmake some sortof appeal to attract assimilationis through minorityvoters.In SMD electionsminorityrepresentation withhighconcentrations candidatesinelectoraldistricts markedbyelectionofminority of voters from themajority ethnic group. The twoperspectives of ethnicmobilization and assimilation are presented as a con tinuum rather than a dichotomy because thereare scenarios under which minority candi dates are elected that combine elements of minority and majority support. Parties may have incentives to nominate less assimilated minority candidates but not rely solely or even predominantly upon the support of thoseminorities forelection. Particularly inPR systems, one can imagine that certain parties would nominate members of minority groups in order to attract support fromparticular ethnic groups as part of a larger elec toral constituency thatalso includes interestswithin themajority population. Hypotheses Based on thismodel, several hypotheses can be offered regarding the impact of electoral systems on minority representation conditioned by the size, geographic concentration, and relative assimilation ofminority groups. In general, differences in the level ofminor 277 Comparative Politics April 2008 ityrepresentation betweenPR andSMD tiersaredrivenbydemographic characteristics thatprovide advantages for the group in one type of electoral systemwhile at the same timeproducing disadvantages undertheothersystem. Conversely, similarlevelsof rep resentation betweenthetwotiersareproducedeither whendemographic characteristics produce the same dynamic in both tiers (for example, assimilation) or when a combina tion of characteristics produce advantages in both tiers (for example, large and geo graphically concentrated groups). AssimilationHypothesis Highly assimilatedethnicminoritieswill experienceno differ between SMD and PR tiers,regardlessof ence in the levelof legislativerepresentation theirsize or geographicconcentration. onminorityrepresenta Assimilationtendstodiminishtheimpactof electoralsystems tionby lesseningtheperceiveddifferences betweentheassimilated minorityand the majority population. Highly assimilated ethnicminorities will be able to gamer support from themajority population to gain election, given that theirethnic identities are a less salient issue (and often a less perceptible voting cue) than the ethnicity of members of likemembersof the mem lessassimilated groups.Consequently, majorityethnicgroup, bers ofmore assimilated minorities should be attractive candidates forPR party lists and SMD contests. There are other crucial distinctions in the patterns of representation of highly assimilated minority groups. In the SMD tier,members of these ethnic categories are expected to gain election in single member districts dominated by themajority pop ulation and to be nominated by major political parties (as opposed to running as inde pendents or members of minor parties). In the PR tier, highly assimilated minority candidates also are expected to have distinct partisan backgrounds, being nominated by more conservative and sometimes even nationalistic parties that tend not to nominate other minority groups. Small, ConcentratedGroup Hypothesis Groups thatare small,geographicallyconcen trated,and less assimilatedwill achieve higher levelsof legislativerepresentationin the SMD tierthan in thePR tierofmixed-memberelectoral systems. they tend to be more displaced from themajority culture, less assimilated groups are likely to rely on ethnic mobilization to elect representatives to the national legislature. Small groups face disadvantages in PR elections because they are not large Because enough to sustain ethnic parties or to be nominated in large numbers on theparty lists of major, nonethnic parties. However, if these small minorities are geographically concen 278 Robert G.Moser togainelectionbecause they memberdistricts providethebestopportunity trated, single aremost likely to constitute a majority in at least one singlemember electoral district. Large, Dispersed Group Hypothesis Groups thatare large,geographicallydispersed, and less assimilatedwill achieve higher levelsof legislativerepresentationin thePR tier thanin theSMD tierofmixed-memberelectoral systems. Large, geographically dispersed ethnic groups thatare less assimilated will gain greater representation in PR as opposed to SMD systems due to two countervailing dynamics. One provides an advantage inproportional representation,while theother presents a dis advantage within singlemember districts.First, largerethnic groups can marshal the sup port of a significant voting bloc on a national scale. This ability makes such groups potent electoral forces in PR systems because they can sustain a viable ethnic party and/or command a significantminority voting bloc thatmake them attractive candidates parties. for multi-andnonethnic Large, ConcentratedGroupHypothesis Groups thatare relativelylarge,geographically and less assimilatedwill experienceno differencein the levelof legislative concentrated, representation betweenSMD and PR tiers. Unlike assimilated minorities, which downplay the impact of electoral systems, certain ethnic groups have similar rates of PR and SMD representation because they combine demographic characteristics that provide advantages in each tier.Large, unassimilated ethnicminorities that are geographically concentrated enjoy two advantages over other minorities that enable them to achieve relatively high rates of representation under both PR and SMD electoral arrangements. In thePR tier, larger ethnic groups have thepoten tial tomobilize larger voting blocs and thus should be better able to field viable ethnic parties or be more attractivecandidates formainstream political parties hoping to capture significant voting constituencies. In the SMD tier, these same large ethnic minorities should also possess an electoral advantage as long as theyare geographically concentrat ed because such groups should have at theirdisposal a cohesive voting bloc capable of overcoming the electoral threshold in a (relatively) large number of single member dis tricts.By constituting a critical mass of the electorate nationally and within numerous singlemember districts, large, geographically concentrated ethnic groups should be able to find electoral success at roughly equivalent levels inboth PR and SMD tiers. Of course, these hypotheses are not particularly surprising.They match the general propositions of studies of electoral systems and minority representation, but with two thepotentialforethnic caveats.First,current does nothighlight scholarship important in levelsof representation underdifferent typesof minoritiestoexperience no difference electoral systems. Second, the conventional wisdom allows forSMD systems toproduce 279 Comparative Politics April 2008 levels of representation thatwould equal those expected under a PR systemwhen ethnic groups are concentrated but does not argue that there are situations when SMD systems would actuallyproducelevelsofminorityrepresentation that would exceed thosethat would be produced in a PR system. Data and Variables Ethnicity is a socially constructed source of identitybased on racial, religious, linguistic, or regional While oftenbasedon seemingly cultural, properties backgrounds. primordial such as skin color or language, most recent scholarship has emphasized themalleability of ethnic identityand itsmanipulability as a political force, particularly by the political elite.18These aspects of ethnic identityhave made ita difficult concept to examine sys tematically. Clearly, the phenomenon of ethnicmobilization is an important element in much lessmeasuring,itsinfluence democratic politics,butcapturing, remains problem atic. Scholarship on legislative representation of ethnicminorities faces even more fun damental data problems.While there are extensive and reliable databases on the number of women in legislatures around theworld, no analogous source provides information regarding the ethnic identityof legislators. Thus, much isknown about how electoral sys tems,culturalattitudes, and socioeconomicfactorsinfluencetheelectionofwomen around theworld, but very little is known about how these factors affect the election of ethnicminorities.19 This situation is hardly surprising given the sensitivityof such infor mation inmany contexts. As a resultof this lack of information, theoretical propositions regarding the factors that influenceminority representation tend not to be directly tested using empirical data or are examined through the use of questionable proxymeasures such as the proportion of women elected to the legislature or the electoral success of ethnic parties.20 Such indi rectmeasures of the ethnic identityof legislators may fail to capture the full extent of minority representation,particularly in countries thatdo not have strong ethnic parties. For the case examined here, informationon the ethnic identityof individual legisla torswas available. The election ofminority candidates, rather than the success of partic ular ethnic parties, was used as the dependent variable. The data come from official handbooks published by theRussian State Duma, presumably from information supplied by the deputies themselves or their staffs. EthnicMinorities inRussia Russia is unique among postcommunist states in termsof its ethnic composition. Ithas a 20 percent-similar in size tomany countries significantminority population-around 280 RobertG.Moser Concentration of andGeographic Table 1EthnicFederalism, RelativeAssimilation MinoritiesinRussia SelectEthnic % withRussian Largest% of the Populationin Ethnic Thousands Homeland as their First Population of a Language SingleRegion 57 17 2943 No Ukrainians 815 No 63 8 Belorussians 58 6 597 No Germans 2 29 Georgians 199 No 148 No 63 5 Koreans 1130 No 32 4 Armenians 5593 Yes 14 48 Tatars 22 1674 Yes 10 Bashkirs 22 Yes 68 1637 Chuvash 6 516 Yes 53 Ossetians 445 Yes 13 36 Buryats 6 33 444 Yes Yakuts 293 Yes 26 23 Komi 233 Yes 91 Jews 4 Ethnic Minority of the region, such as Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia. However, unlike these states Russia lacks a single major minority group. Instead, thenon-Russian population is com posed of literallydozens of very small groups. The largestminority group of theRussian Federation, Tatars, makes up less than four percent of the population, and only three groups (Tatars, Ukrainians, and Chuvash) comprise over one percent of the country's population. The composition ofRussia's ethnicpopulationcan notbe properlyunderstood without acknowledgment of its institutionalizationwithin a system of ethnic federalism. The Russian Federation has continued the Soviet practice of defining some of its federal units along ethnic lines. Russia is composed of eighty-nine subjects or regions that are divided into twenty-one republics, fortynine oblasts, six krais, two cities (Moscow and St. Petersburg), ten autonomous okrugs, and one autonomous oblast (the Jewish AutonomousOblast). Republics,autonomousokrugs,and theJewish Autonomous Oblast make up the thirtytwo regions named after a non-Russian ethnic group. As Harris has demonstrated, Russia's ethnic federalism has had a strong influence on the ethnic identityof non-Russians. Groups provided with "ethnic homelands" man aged to retain theirnative languages and resist assimilation efforts to a much greater extent than (often larger) minority groups that lacked their own designated federal in ethnichomelandshave cultivated ethnic Moreover,regionalgovernments region.22 in The of ethnicfederal units mobilization center-periphery relations. verydesignation has produced incentives and resources for thepromotion of an ethnic cadre of elites and mass mobilization tied to ethnicity.23Thus, ethnic federalism has indirectly affected 281 Comparative Politics April 2008 minority representation through itsinfluence overethnicidentity andbehavioritself, cre ating, inmost cases, less assimilated and more geographically concentrated ethnic groupsthathavecertainpoliticalopportunities and resourcesthatothergroupswithout their ownethnichomelandslack. The confluence of certainlevelsof cultural assimilation andgeographic concentra tion withfederal ornonfederal status withinRussia's ethnicfederalsystem hasproduced twodiscernible categories of ethnic minorities withinRussia.The first category, nonfed eral minorities, includes groups thatdo not have their own ethnic homeland within the Russian federalsystem. Consequently, thesegroupstendtobemoregeographically dis persed and more culturally assimilated than those groups with an ethnic homeland. This category is quite ethnically diverse with groups with a Slavic background (Ukrainians and Belorussians), as well as groups with origins fromEurope (Germans, Greeks, and Finns),Eurasia (Latvians, Georgians,andArmenians),andAsia (Koreans). The second category, federalminorities, ismade up of groups thathave theirown fed eral subunit. These groups tend to be more geographically concentrated than other minorities -on average, 66 percent of titularnationalities live in theirdesignated feder al units-and are relatively unassimilated into themajority Russian culture.24Table 1 shows the federal designation, relative assimilation (measured as percentage claiming Russian as their first language), and level of geographic concentration of selectminority groupsinRussia.25 By and large, the figures inTable 1 conform to the characterization thatethnic feder alism has produced twobroad categories ofminorities-one relativelyunassimilated and geographically concentrated and the other relatively assimilated and geographically dis persed. On average, 26 percent of federalminorities speak Russian as their first lan guage, and they comprise 36 percent of the population in one of Russia's federal units, while 50 percent of nonfederal minorities are native Russian speakers and they tend to make up only 7 percent of thepopulation in any particular Russian region. Jews present the one exception to the pattern that federally designated ethnic groups are geographi cally concentrated and less assimilated thanminorities without an ethnic homeland. While Jews inRussia have theirown ethnic homeland, they are not geographically con centrated in thathomeland. Less than 2 percent of Jews living inRussia resided in the JewishAutonomous oblast in 1989, and the Jewish population comprised only 4 percent of the region's population. Jews are also arguably themost highly assimilated ethnic minority group inRussia, with over 90 percent speaking Russian as their first language. MinorityRepresentationinRussia Given the ethnicmake-up of Russia, one might expect both thePR and plurality tiersof itsmixed electoral system to underrepresent non-Russian ethnic groups, based on the assumption thatminority representation is primarily driven by themobilization of coeth 282 Robert G.Moser Table 2Modes ofRepresentation of Specific Ethnic Groups, 1993-1999 Ethnic Group | Elected HElected in the PR tier in SMDs Russian Regions HElected in SMDs Ethnic Homelands in in 1993 Election Non-Federal Minorities Ukrainian 13 8 1 Belorussian 5 2 0 Korean 0 1 0 Arnenian 2 1 O Other 2 4 Total 22 16 0 1 Federal Minorities Tatar Bashkir 2 _I2 1 0 3 0 Chuvash 0 0 Jewish 5 2 0 Othera 5 1 18 Total 13 3 23 _________________ UTkrairnian Belorussian Korean Armenian Other Total 137 Election Non-Federal Minorities ~~~~1995 3 0 2 2 ____________ 1 0 1 1 1 1 18 1 13 0 7 Federal Minorities 1 3 Bashkir Chuvash 0 1 0 0 2 0 Jewish 2 1 0 Othera 9 1 14 Tatar Total 5 17 3 __ Ukrainian Belorussian Korean Armenian Other Total 12 7 0 1999 Election Non-F& ra)Minzaities 12 2 3 0 1 0 3 0 2 4 24 19 19 1 0 4 Federal Minorities Tatar Bashkir 3 3 1 0 5 3 Chuvash 0 0 3 Jewish 4 Othersa Total 11 21 1 2 4 1 10 22 283 Comparative Politics April 2008 nic voters. No single ethnicminority constitutes a large enough share of the population plausibly to field an ethnic party capable of overcoming the five percent legal threshold in thePR tier,and only the largestminority groups such as Tatars or Ukrainians offer a potentially cohesive bloc of voters that is large enough to compel a nonethnic party to includemembers of these groups on theirPR lists to capture the "ethnic" vote. One could imagine minoritiesfaring betterinplurality elections,giventhegeographicconcentra minorities withintheir tionof certainfederal designated homelands. However,there were only twenty-fourmajority-minority districts out of a total of 225 in 1995, and of these only fifteen had a Russian population under 40 percent.26Despite these demographic obstacles, both the PR and plurality tiers of Russia's mixed system elected a relatively large percentage of non-Russians to the State Duma. Neither the PR nor the SMD tier themajorityethnicgroup,despitetheadvantages Russianspossessed overrepresented under both systems. Russians were elected to the legislature in almost identical numbers in both tiers and in nearly equal proportion to their population. However, therewere in theoverallrepresentation differences of federaland nonfederalethnic important minorities and the impact of electoral rules on these two categories. Table 2 provides a of individual detailedbreakdown threeavenues: minority grouprepresentation through election in thePR tier,election in single member districts inRussian regions, and elec tioninsingle inethnichomelands.27 memberdistricts EthnicMobilization,andModes ofMinorityRepresentation CulturalAssimilation, inRussia in thepatterns Severaldifferences of representation fornonfederal and federalminorities deserve special attention because theyhighlight the impact that cul tural assimilation and ethnicmobilization have had onminority representation inRussia. First,despiteseveralgeographic disadvantages, nonfederal minorities werebetterrepre sented in the State Duma than their federal counterparts.While nonfederal minorities made up only 32 percent of theminority population inRussia, they constituted 56 per cent of the total number of minorities elected to the State Duma from 1993 to 1999.28Moreover, thisoverrepresentationwas fueled primarily by the success of themost assimilated groups within this category,Ukrainians and Belorussians, who share a com mon ethnic, religious, and historical background with Russians. These two groups made up 39 percent of the total number of minorities elected to the State Duma from 1993 to 1999, even though they comprised only 13 percent of the non-Russian population. The non-Slavicgroupswithoutethnichomelands (forexample,Armenians,Koreans, ethnicand religiousdifferences from Germans),whichpossessedsignificant Russians, did not gain the same degree of representation.This subset of thenonfederal category of minority groups gained roughly the same percentage ofminority representatives (17 per cent) as their share of theminority population (19 percent). This difference is likely due to the fact that candidates with Slavic backgrounds were less distinguishable by name and appearance fromRussian candidates than non-Slavic candidates. Essentially, some groups were more easily assimilated and thusprobably more attractive toRussian voters. 284 RobertG.Moser minorities, which enjoyedmajority status within crtain electoraldistricts By conbtast,federal Even though theycomprised underrepresented. homelands, were relatively intheir ethnic 67 percent of theminority population, federalminorities made up only 44 percent of the minorities elected to the State Duma. The implication is clear: the impact of cultural assimilation on minority representation inRussia not only affected the avenue by which minority candidates were elected but also had an impact on the overall success of candi dates fromcertainethnicgroups.Members ofmore assimilated,nonfederalethnic groups appear tohave done better at thepolls than fellowminority candidates frommore culturally distinct groups, even though the latterpossessed greater resources forelectoral voters. mobilization of coethnic Second, the data inTable 2 strongly suggest that the key to nonfederal minorities' Russianpopulation. Unlike lessassimi majority electoralsuccesswas supportfromthe dom minorities gainedelectioninpoliticalcontexts minorities, nonfederal latedfederal inated by Russians. As Table 2 vividly shows, therewere dramatic differences in the types of single member districts that elected nonfederal and federal minorities. The more assimilated nonfederal minorities won the vast majority of their seats in regions where Russians were in themajority, whereas the less assimilated federalminorities won virtu ally all of theirSMD seats in non-Russian ethnic homelands. Jews pose the one exception to the two patterns discussed above because, although they have their own ethnic homeland, Jewish candidates gained representation in con textsassociated with the election of nonfederal groups. As shown inTable 2, unlike other federalminorities Jews tended tobe overrepresented in theState Duma (given theirsmall numbers), and Jewish candidates gained almost all of their seats in thePR tierand SMD contests inRussian regions. However, this exception actually bolsters the argument.As discussed above, the demographic and cultural profile of Russian Jews ismuch more similar to nonfederal minorities than to federal ones. Jews tend to be geographically dis persed and highly urbanized and are perhaps themost linguistically assimilated minority in Russia (see Table 1). Thus, in gaining election through venues dominated by the of generalpatterns theexperience of thisgrouphas simplyfollowed majority population, minority representation inRussia. This observation also suggests that the impact of eth nic federalism on minority representation is primarily indirect, through its impact on cul tural assimilation and geographic concentration. If the existence of an ethnic homeland does not create insulation from cultural assimilation and provide pressure toward geo graphic concentration, then theminority group with an ethnic homeland will not have electoral experiences typically found among other federal ethnic groups. Partisanship,Social Background,andMinorityRepresentation Finally,one must consider other potential factors thatmay interactwith or supersede ethnicity as a mobilizational resource forcandidates. The electoral success ofmembers of certain eth nic groups may be rooted in the relative status such groups occupy in a country's social, political, and economic hierarchy. Perhaps certain minority groups achieved 285 Comparative Politics April2008 Table 3 Social and Occupational Background ofNon-Russian Duma Deputies Ethnic Election Residence Residence Residence National Regional Econ. Other# year/tier inMoscow inRussian inEthnic Elite# Elite# Elite (%/0) Group Homeland (%) Category (%) (%/) #(%/0) Region _ Non- 1993 _ _ # (o/o) ___ 2 (13) 13 (81) # (_ 1 (6) 0 (0) 3 (19) 6 (38) 7 (44) Federal SMD l____ NonFederal 1993 PR 16 (73) 5 (23) 1 (5) 3 (14) 2 (9) 7 (32) 10 (46) NonFederal NonFederal 1995 SMD 1995 PR 2 (10) 13 (65) 5 (25) 10 (50) 6 (30) 3 (15) 1 (5) 3 (17) 14 (78) 1 (6) 5 (28) 5 (28) 2 (11) 6 (33) 1999 10 (44) 13 (57) 0 (0) 12 (52) 6 (26) 3 (13) 2 (9) 1999 9 (38) 14 (58) 1 (4) 9 (38) 5 (21) 4 (17) 6 (25) 42 (34) 72 (58) 9 (7) 39 (31) 27 (22) 25 (20) 32 (26) 1993 5 (19) 3 (12) 18 (69) 1 (4) 10 (39) 7 (27) 8 (31) Federal 1993 _ _ _ PR 6 (46) 3 (23) 4 (31) 1 (8) 2 (15) 1 (8) 9 (69) 1995 8 (36) 3 (14) 11 (50) 13 (59) 4 (18) 5 (23) 0 (0) Federal 1995 _ _ _ PR 4 (24) 2 (12) 11 (65) 2 (12) 2 (12) 5 (29) 8 (47) 1999 6 (23) 2 (8) 18 (69) 6 (23) 14 (54) 2 (8) 4 (15) 1999 Federal _ _ _ _ PR 6 (29) 4 (19) 11 (52) 3 (14) 7 (33) 6 (29) 5 (24) 35 (28) 17 (14) 73 (58) 26 (21) 39 (31) 26 (21) 34 (27) Non- Federal SMD NonFederal PR NonFederal total Federal ____SMD _ Federal _ Federal ____SMD Federal total SMD IIIIII II greater or lesser success overall or under particular electoral rules because candidates from these groups possessed other influential social characteristics, such as partisan affiliation, higher education, and positions of power in prestigious national or regional membersof nonfederal minoritieswho gained election organizations.In particular, throughgreater support fromRussian voters may have had electoral advantages as can didates thatwere unrelated (or at least indirectly related) to their ethnic identities.As hierarchically within Horowitzandothershave shown,ethnicgroupsareoftensituated the social structureof a society, and thus ethnic cleavages are cumulative rather than competing sources of identityalong with other social divisions based on economic pros perity, education, and occupational specialization. In countries with ranked ethnic groups, certainminorities may have advantages over other groups (including themajori ty),while other groups suffer from chronic economic and social disadvantages.29 Such disparities in economic and social resources and status can be expected to have a direct impact on the ability of members of ethnicminorities to gain legislative representation. Do members of different ethnic groups who have gained election to theRussian 286 RobertG.Moser nationallegislature displaydistinct patterns ofpartisanship and socialbackgrounds that would suggest that some groups have social advantages over others?Analyses of thepar tisanship and social background ofminority deputies elected in thePR and SMD tiersof Russia's mixed electoral system suggest that these other factors can not account for the differences observedinthe modesof representation forfederal andnonfederal minorities inRussia. Deputies fromnonfederal and federalminorities did have distinct patterns of parti sanaffiliation.30 However,thesedistinctions arebetterconceivedof as effects rather than intervening causesof theway thatethnicity has intersected with electoralpoliticsin Russia. First, in the SMD tier federalminority deputies were much more likely to be independents thannonfederal minority deputies. Over thethree electionsexamined here, there were forty-one independents amongdeputiesbelongingtofederal minority groups butonlynineteenindependents Itcould amongthedeputiesfrom minorities. nonfederal be argued that this increased partisanship may have played a role in the ability of non federal ethnic minorities such as Ukrainians to gain election in Russian-majority dis tricts. However,it ismore likelythatincreased partisanship amongmore assimilated, nonfederal ethnic groups was an effectof the inherentdifferences in the electoral context inwhich SMD candidates from federal and nonfederal ethnic groups found themselves. Since federal memberdistricts minority deputieselectedfromsingle tendedtogainelec tion inmajority-minority districts, ethnicitymay have replaced party as a central voting cue.Conversely, who gainedelectionalmostexclusively nonfederal candidates minority inRussian-majority tomobilize support districts couldnotuse theirethnicity and thus neededotherresourcesthatpoliticalpartiescouldprovide. Moreover,intheabsenceof significant ethnic parties, all major parties tended to have a constituency dominated by Russians. It stands to reason that,when nominating minority candidates, such parties would be more likely to nominate members of ethnicminorities deemed closer cultural ly to themajority population. Indeed, thepower of ethnicityas amobilizing force ismade manifest here because federalminorities managed to gain election in significant numbers despite the fact thatmany ranwithout party backing. Other differences in partisanship between nonfederal and federal minority groups can also be derived from the fact that the formerare more assimilated than the latter. Nationalistpartieselectedovertwiceasmanyassimilated, nonfederal minorities than membersofunassimilated, federal groupsforobviousreasons.Conversely, parties with a regionalist platform elected more than twice as many federalminorities as non federalminorities because theirplatform brought greater electoral success in areas (eth nichomelands)thatproducedthesedeputies. Similar conclusions arise from an analysis of the social background of minority deputies offered inTable 3. The most striking feature of the social background of non federal and federalminority deputies is thedegree of similaritybetween the two groups. Both categories had similar levels ofMoscow-based politicians, as well as members of national, regional, and economic elites. Both categories had a similar proportion of 287 Comparative Politics April 2008 deputies coming from the "other" group, which included members of professions and occupations such as artists, academics, and low-level bureaucrats that tended to be less prevalent in thenational legislature. The key distinction lay in residence inRussian ver sus non-Russian regions.Members of nonfederal and federal ethnic groups were virtual mirror images of one another in termsof patterns of regional (outside ofMoscow) resi dency patterns.Thus, minority deputies tended to be local rather thannational politicians constituents. who residedamongtheir Nonfederal minority deputies'constituents simply livedinRussian-majority while federal deputies'constituents livedin regions, minority ethnichomelands. In short, analyses of levels of partisanship and social background suggest thatother factors related to partisanship and social status provide much less explanatory power for thedistinct of electionofdifferent groupsthantheinfluence of ethnic patterns minority ity itself and, in particular, the impact of cultural assimilation for one subset of ethnic minority groups and geographic concentration for the other. SecondaryElectoralRules, ProportionalRepresentation,and FederalMinorities federalminorities tended to gain more representation in SMD elections, the dif ference in the level of representation between the two tiersdropped significantly after the initialpostcommunist election in 1993. This change over timewas driven by the fact that While the number of PR deputies among federalminorities doubled after the initial election in 1993 (see Table 2). forgeographically minoritiesinthePR This increase of representation concentrated tier ismost likely due to an institutional factor: a change in the electoral law instituted after the initial postcommunist election. Beginning with the 1995 election, parties were required to draw up a national list of twelve (later eighteen) candidates, followed by regional sublists established by parties themselves.31 If a partywon enough seats to go beyond the national list, the remaining seats were distributed according to the relative proportion of votes won in each region outlined by the party.Regions with the greatest number of votes for a given party were the first to receive parliamentary seats. This change may have provided more opportunities for candidates from geographically con centrated ethnic groups with their own federal units to obtain a winning position on major party lists if support for such parties was more concentrated in non-Russian regions than other parts of the country. Conclusions The contours of minority representation inRussia have several important implications for the study of the effects of electoral systems on ethnic representation. First, contrary to conventional wisdom, proportional representation did not display any greater propen sity to elect minorities to the national legislature than plurality elections. In every elec 288 RobertG.Moser tiontheSMD tierproduced moreminority representatives thanthePR tier. Second, theRussian experience suggests that there is a complex interactionamong assimilation, geographicconcentration, and institutions. Minoritygroupsappearedto gain representation at varying levels under PR and SMD rules and in differentdemo graphic contexts depending largely on how well assimilated theywere with themajority Russianpopulation. Thus,more assimilated, minorities geographically dispersed gained substantial representation (well beyond what could be expected based on their share of the population) in both the PR and SMD tiers of Russia's mixed system. Given the absence of a critical mass of coethnics, one must assume this electoral success was attained through support from theRussian majority. The reason thatproportional repre sentation did not favor the election of these groups was theirability to gain election in a ofRussian-majority substantial number memberdistricts. Whilemanygeograph single icallydispersedgroups(Jews, Armenians, Germans),followedthispattern, thestriking success of themost assimilated Slavic minorities suggests thatassimilation is a key fac tor thatneeds to be taken into consideration when ascertaining the causes of minority representation. lessassimilated, concentrated minorities geographically appearedto gainelection Conversely, much more through themobilization of coethnics. Thus, these groups gained most of intheSMD tier, representation indistricts their predominantly withinfederally designat ed ethnic homelands. The reason that the electoral advantages within the SMD tier declined after 1993 was a change in the electoral law.When Russia changed itsPR sys tem to include regional sublists in each party list, geographically concentrated ethnic minorities benefited because they represented regional voting blocs and had their own federal entities. Finally, electoral laws are not the only institutional instrumentsaffecting the elec toralmobilization of minorities. In theRussian case, ethnic federalism was themost important institutional factorinfluencing ethnicrepresentation. The establishment of federal subunits designated as ethnic homelands for certain minorities substantially influenced all other factors thatplayed a role inminority representation. Those groups with theirown federal region tended tobe less assimilated and more geographically con centrated thantheir nonfederalized counterparts. These findings suggest the need for caution when considering the impact of electoral systems in ethnically diverse societies. Proportional representationmay not provide ethnic minorities with the avenue to legislative representation its proponents claim, especially in countries thatdo not have strong ethnically based parties.While the introduction of proportional may increasethelikelihoodthatethnicpar representation tieswill emerge, itprovides no guarantee. Other electoral rules governing party forma tion and registrationwill affect this outcome, as will the existence or nonexistence of ethnic groups thatare large and cohesive enough to sustain such parties. 32 InRussia, the absence of ethnic parties can be traced to both demographic factors (small minority groups) and actions by the state that legally curtailed party elites from forming ethnic 289 Comparative Politics April2008 parties and campaigning on ethnic themes. In a more permissible legal environment, eth nic parties (for example, aMuslim party) may attain greater influence and thus change betweenelectoralrulesandparticular ethnic minorities.33 theinterrelationship Finally, electoral systems do not affect all minorities in the same way. More assimi fromthe majoritypopulation lated minoritiesthatcanattract substantial electoralsupport mechanismssuchasmajority-minority single member maynotneedspecialinstitutional districts to attain legislative representation,while such institutionaldevices may be the minoritiestoachieverepresentation. onlyway forlessassimilated NOTES 1. See, for example, Alvin Rabushka and Kenneth A. Shepsle, Politics in Plural Societies: A Theory of Democratic 1972); Juan Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Instability (Columbus: Charles E. Merrill, Southern Europe, South America and Eastern Europe (Baltimore: Democratic Transition and Consolidation: and The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996); Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence: Democratization Conflict (New York: Norton, 2000). in Plural Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2. See, for example, Arend Lijphart, Democracy 1977); Donald Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985); Donald in a Divided Society (Berkeley: University Horowitz, A Democratic South Africa? Constitutional Engineering of California Press, 1991); Ben Reilly and Andrew Reynolds, Electoral Systems and Conflict inDivided Nationalist National Academy Press, 1999). (Washington, DC: 3. Arend Lijphart, "Constitutional Design forDivided Societies," Journal ofDemocracy, Societies 15 (April 2004), 97. 4. Andrew Reynolds, "The Case for Proportionality,' 'Journal ofDemocracy, 5. Lijphart, "Constitutional Design forDivided Societies," p. 100. 6. Ibid., pp. 99-100. 6 (October 1995), 86-99. 7. On the dearth of empirical studies of electoral system effects on ethnic representation, see Pippa Norris, Not Bullets: Theories of Ethnic Conflict, Electoral Testing Consociational Systems, and inAndrew Reynolds, ed., The Architecture ofDemocracy: Constitutional Design, Conflict Democratization," "Ballots and Democracy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002), pp. 211-13. Management, in 8. Robert G. Moser, Unexpected Outcomes: Electoral Systems, Political Parties, and Representation Russia (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2001). For a critique of this approach, see Erik S. Herron and Misa Nishikawa, "Contamination Effects and the Number of Parties inMixed Superposition Electoral Systems," Electoral Studies, 20 (January 2001), 63-86. 9. The 2001 federal law On Political Parties explicitly prohibits the formation of political parties on a racial, national, or religious basis (Art. 9, 3) and prohibits parties from using names and symbols thatmay offend racial, national, or religious feelings (Art. 6, 5 and Art. 7, 3). Moreover, the law requires thatpolitical parties have regional branches in over half of Russia's federal regions (Art. 3, 2), which undermines parties with con centrated geographic support. The 2002 federal law On theElection ofDeputies of the State Duma prohibits electoral campaigning and the production of any type of electoral propaganda by charity and religious organi zations and organizations founded by them (Art. 57, 5). This same law prohibits electoral campaigning that violate the integrity of the Russian Federation or excite racial, national, or religious hatred or enmity texts of these laws are available at www.democracy.ru. (Art. 64, 1). Full English-language would 10. Reilly and Reynolds, pp. 48-51. 11. Pippa Norris, Electoral Engineering: University Press, 2004), 208-13. 290 Voting Rules and Political Behavior (Cambridge: Cambridge RobertG.Moser 12.Determination of the Israeli parties considered to be ethnic or religious parties was based on descriptions of parties found inEurope World online, www.europaworld.com. 13.Andrew Reynolds, "The Case for Proportionality," p. 91. 14. See, for example, David Lublin, The Paradox of Representation: Racial Gerrymandering and Minority Interests inCongress (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997); David T. Canon, Race, Redistricting, and The Unintended Consequences of Black Majority Districts (Chicago: University of Chicago Representation: Press, 1999). 15. Joel D. Barkan, "Elections inAgrarian Societies," Journal ofDemocracy, 6 (October 1995), 106-16. Chandra, Why Ethnic Parties Succeed (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004); Norris, Electoral Engineering, ch. 9. 17.Moser, Unexpected Outcomes, ch. 2. 16. See Kanchan 18. See, for example, Ernest Gellner, Nations and Nationalism (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983); rev. ed. Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism, (London: Verso, 1991); Snyder, From Voting to Violence. 19. Democracies in Developed 1998), 109-25; Andrew Reynolds, (July 1999), 547-72. and Developing Countries," Legislative Studies Quarterly, 28 (February "Women in theLegislatures and Executives of theWorld," World Politics, 51 20. Norris, "Ballots Not Bullets," pp. 211-13. For examples of studies using political parties as the unit of analysis, see Barkan, "Elections inAgrarian Societies," pp. 108-9; Reynolds, "Constitutional Engineering in "Ethnic and Women's Representation under Mixed Election Systems," South Africa"; Tatiana Kastadinova, Studies, 26 (2007). 21. The sources for this informationwere Pyataya Rossiiskaya Electoral Gosudarstvennaya Duma [FifthRussian State Izdanniya Gosudarstvennaya Duma, 1994), for the 1993 election; Gosudarstvennaya Duma Federal'naya Sobraniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii Vtorogo Sozyva [State Duma Federal Legislature of theRussian Federation Second Session] (Moscow: Duma, Izdanniya Gosudarstvennaya 1996), for the 1995 election; Sobraniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii Tretego Sozyva [State Duma Federal Gosudarstvennaya Duma Federal'naya Duma] (Moscow: Legislature of the Russian Federation Third Session] (Moscow: Izdanniya Gosudarstvennaya Duma, 2000); Galina Kozhevnikova, Lyudmila Mikheyesku, and Vladimir Pribylovskii, Deputaty Gosudarstvennoi Dumy RF Tretego Sozyva (1999-2003) [Deputies of the State Duma of the RF Third Session] (Moscow: Panorama, 2000). The database I assembled from these sources includes twenty-eight different ethnic categories. Iwas not able to collect data on the ethnic identity of legislators for the 2003 election. 22. Chauncy Harris, "The New Russian Minorities: A Statistical Overview," Post-Soviet Geography, 34 (1993), 571. World Politics, 43 (1991), 196-232; 23. See Phillip Roeder, "Soviet Federalism and Ethnic Mobilization," Daniel Treisman, "Russia's Ethnic 'Revival': The Separatist Activism of Regional Leaders in a Postcommunist Order," World Politics, 49 (January 1997), 212^19. 24. Harris, pp. 553, 573. 25. Geographic concentration ismeasured by the group in question. as the largest share of a single region's population that is comprised 26. These observations are based on data for the 1995 election fromMichael McFaul and Nikolai Petrov, eds., ofRussia (Moscow: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1998), 668-71. 27. Russian regions are all oblasts and krai, and all have majority-Russian populations. Ethnic homelands are all republics, autonomous oblasts, and the Jewish Autonomous Okrug. Some nonfederal minorities such as Ukrainians gained election in single member districts located in the ethnic homelands of other (federal) minori Political Almanac ties. 28. The proportion of the totalminority population comprised by federal and nonfederal minorities was cal culated by totaling the numbers of all groups within each category found in the dataset and then dividing by the total population of non-Russians. All figures came from the 2002 census. 29. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups inConflict, pp. 21-36. 30. Due to space considerations, a fullbreakdown of the partisanship ofminority deputies is not provided here 291 Politics April2008 Comparative but is available upon request from the author. 31. It is important to note thatparties used dramatically different boundaries for their regional sublists, often combining several federal units into one regional list.Thus, this reformwas not equivalent to the establishment of regional multimember districts. 32. On the role of registration rules on the emergence of ethnic parties, see Johanna Birnir, "Stabilizing Segments of Society? The Effects of Formation Costs Systems and Excluding Latin America," in Comparative Studies International Development, 39 (Fall 2004), 33. It is unclear whether ethnic parties would have flourished inRussia Muslim social movement in the absence of legal limitations. A to register in 2001. The latter changed party retained its leadership, organization, and profile, which originated inDagestan a pan-Islamic less than 1 percent of the PR vote. As Ware electoral association would See Robert Bruce Ware, Reform," Europe-Asia 292 in 3-27. its name to True due to fears of losing its registration before contesting the 2003 election. Nevertheless, roots. Each party won Party Party Foundation called Nur (light inArabic) was allowed to contest the 1995 election, and a party orig inally named the Islamic Party of Russia was allowed Patriots of Russia on New "Recent Russian this and had definite Islamic notes in the case of Dagestan, any attempt at face serious obstacles of internal ethnic differences and competition. Federal Elections Studies, 57 (June 2005), 583-600. inDagestan: Implications for Proposed Electoral
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