Kiribati Climate Outlook
April– June 2017
Kiribati Meteorological Service Division
Office of Te Beretitenti
Kiribati Meteorological Service
Member of WMO
Contacts:
Tel (686) 26511 & 25444
Fax: (686) 26089
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.met.gov.ki
Outline:

Climate Summary

ENSO Update
 Rainfall Outlooks for
3months period.
 Regional rainfall maps for
3months period.
Important Notes:
The forecast confidence score has
been categorised as follows:
Climate Summary
April 2017
Current ENSO state is Neutral with increasing chance of El Nino to develop in the
next few months.
Overall rainfall prediction for April to June 2017: Below normal is most likely in
western Kiribati and below normal to normal in the Line and Phoenix groups.
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (El Nino/Neutral/La Nina) Update
The El Nino Southern Oscillation remains Neutral and likely to continue over the
April to June months. There is an increase chance of getting into El Nino in the
second half of this year. Sea surface temperatures have warmed steadily over
eastern and central Pacific since the start of the year depicting the chance of El
Nino developing late this year (see dial below).
However, caution must be taken at this time of year since accuracy of the
predictive model is lower compared to other times of the year.
Average of international model outlooks for ENSO status
Very Low: X < 0.0
Low: 0 ≤ X < 5
Moderate 5 ≤ X < 10
Good: 10 ≤ X < 15
High: 15≤ X < 25
Very High: 25 ≤X < 35
Exceptional: X ≥ 35
Score: Is calculated by counts of
historical results of the chances
(below normal, normal and above
normal), the more they have the
higher their score will be.
The arrows on the dials above indicate the combined average of monthly NINO3.4 outlooks from a survey of
international global climate models. Note that the individual model runs vary around the average.
Details of the 3-Months Rainfall Prediction
April to June Outlook in Statistical
Model
April to June Outlook in Dynamical
Model
Beru (April– June)
Kiribati Islands (April– June)
There is little indication shown as either above
normal, normal or below normal rainfall.
Line and Phoenix groups favour normal or
below normal rainfall while Western Kiribati
favours below normal.
Forecast confidence is Moderate
3 months rainfall ranges:
Above normal > 354.3mm
Normal >161.3mm but <354.3mm
Below normal < 161.3mm
Forecast confidence– Moderate to High
April to June Outlook in Statistical Model
April to June Outlook in Dynamical Model
Butaritari (April– June)
There is little indication shown as either above normal,
normal or below normal rainfall.
Forecast confidence is Low
3 months rainfall ranges:
Above normal > 1045.3 mm
Normal >721.3mm but <1045.3 mm
Below normal < 721.3 mm
Kanton (April– June)
The most likely outcome is normal to below normal, for
the next three months.
Fig 1: shows rainfall outlook for April to June 2017 for
islands in the Pacific including Kiribati. Line and Phoenix groups favour
normal or below normal rainfall while western Kiribati favour below
normal.
Forecast confidence is Moderate
3 months rainfall ranges:
Above normal > 252.7mm
Normal >174.8mm but < 252.7mm
Below normal < 174.8mm
Kiritimati (April– June)
There is little indication shown as either above normal,
normal or below normal rainfall.
Forecast confidence is Low
3 months rainfall ranges:
Fig 2: Colours on the map depicts the category of the rainfall. Brown is
drier than normal, Green is wetter than normal. Western Kiribati favour
below normal rainfall, near normal in Line and Phoenix Groups for April
to June.
Above normal > 381 mm
Normal >211.7mm but < 381 mm
Below normal <211.7mm
Tarawa (April– June)
The most likely outcome is below normal to normal, for
the next three months.
Forecast confidence is Good
3 months rainfall ranges:
Above normal >585.5mm
Normal >356.7mm but <585.5mm
Below normal <356.7mm
Fig 3: The map shows rainfall outlook using statistical model. Below
normal to normal in Kanton and Tarawa. Little indication as either
above normal, normal and below normal for Beru, Butaritari and
Kiritimati. Confidence in the forecast is low to moderate.
This summary report is prepared as soon as possible by the end of the month, once climate data completed from the operational meteorological stations around Kiribati together with
the ENSO information which is received from various Meteorological Agencies around the world. Every effort is made to verify observational data. The Kiribati Meteorological Service
does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the analysis and rainfall predictions presented, and accepts no liability for any losses incurred through the use of this summary and its
contents. The contents of the summary may be freely disseminated provided the source is acknowledged. All enquiries on this report should be directed to the Kiribati Meteorological
Service HQ at Temakin Betio. For further information please contact: Chief Meteorological Officer, Kiribati Meteorological Services (686) 26511 Email [email protected]