INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES:
UK OPPORTUNITIES
INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES WORKING GROUP: SEPTEMBER 2013
This report published
with support from
“Helping to turn low carbon propulsion technology
into products developed in the UK”
The Advanced Propulsion Centre was formed in 2013, demonstrating
the commitment between the government and automotive industry
through the Automotive Council to position the UK as a global centre
of excellence for low carbon powertrain development and production.
It is a central pillar of the Automotive Industrial Strategy created by
the Automotive Council and focuses on five strategic technologies.
The APC focuses on the four shown in green, whilst the Transport
Systems Catapult addresses the fifth, Intelligent Mobility.
If you...
• Are a company with a prototype, innovative low carbon
propulsion technology.
• Want to turn your technology into an automotive product developed in in the UK.
The Advanced Propulsion Centre can help you...
• Find partners and create a collaboration with other companies, suppliers and manufacturers.
• A
ccess industry and government funding to share the risks and opportunities when
preparing to bring your technology to market.
The APC is an industry wide collaboration with government, academia, innovators and producers of low
carbon propulsion systems. It facilitates and supports partnerships between those who have good ideas
and those who have a desire to bring them to market. The APC is also the custodian of the strategic
technology consensus roadmaps developed by the Automotive Council which inform the UK’s research
and development agenda.
The services provided by the APC enable projects which provide profitable growth and sustainable
opportunities for the partners involved and builds the UK supply chain. The APC’s activities will build
the UK’s capability as a Propulsion Nation and contribute to the country’s economic prosperity.
Contact
The Advanced Propulsion Centre
University Road
Coventry
CV4 7AL
[email protected]
02476 528 700
@theapcuk
www.apcuk.co.uk
2
OVERVIEW
CONTENTS
Internal Combustion Engines are one
of five ‘sticky’ technologies which were
identified by the Automotive Council in
2010 as primary opportunities for creating
future industry prosperity in the UK.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Accordingly, the Council established an
Internal Combustion Energy Working
Group and tasked it with examining
the likely future requirements for
these technologies and identifying the
opportunities for them to develop an
integrated UK supply chain them.
This report provides a summary of
the information available and the
industry consensus at September 2013.
Any subsequent changes to targets
and developments in technology will
change the picture presented here.
1.0INTRODUCTION
2.0FIVE CATALYSING ACTIVITY AREAS
FOR UK ICE INDUSTRY
2.1The Research to Manufacture (R2M)
supply chain needs to be revitalised
in the UK to bring future ICE low
carbon technologies to market
2.2Supplier involvement in an integrated
UK based capability for high value
R&D is a means to future growth in
advanced propulsion
2.3Skills investment to attract, train and
retain technical, management and
commercial capability is vital for ICE
industry success
2.4R&D focus and impact can be
enhanced through improved
collaboration across the supply
chain and core skill development
2.5Low carbon economically viable fuels
are a critical technology for low
carbon propulsion systems
3.0CONCLUSIONS
4.0
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In 2012 the UK manufactured approximately 1.7m vehicles for both road transport and
off-road applications. The UK also produced over 2.7m internal combustion engines
(ICEs), most of which are exported, with further capacity being added. However,
whilst the UK has developed a sizeable design and manufacturing capability, this is
largely dominated by assembly. Many of the high added value, fuelling, control and
electrical systems are imported from overseas.
The UK has a strong academic and vehicle manufacturer led R&D capability, but this is
not supported by a homogeneously strong R&D capability in the supply chain. This is
particularly the case in the supply of high added value systems and components.
Future global emissions regulations and increasing demand from developing markets
are driving industrial and technological growth. International regulations are focused
on reducing CO2 emissions and improving air quality. Demand for mobility continues
to increase, with conservative estimates forecasting 60% growth by 2030 1.
Meanwhile, customer demands for lower operating costs, especially for commercial
vehicles, is increasing the requirement for affordable low carbon propulsion systems.
The overall challenge of balancing these market requirements has created an opportunity
for the UK to support the increasing global demand for low carbon propulsion systems
whilst growing high value R&D in the UK supply base. Detailed analysis shows that
the internal combustion engine operating on lower carbon fuels, with varying degrees
of electrification, is the most logical route to meet these future regulatory and
commercial needs.
An initial assessment has identified an economic growth opportunity for UK business
of approximately £2 billion per year by producing and exporting high value low CO2
propulsion systems for global customers in a range of sectors from passenger cars to
off-road machines and stationary engines. A significant part of this opportunity would
come from establishing an R&D led supplier manufacturing capability in the UK. This
capability would provide the next generation propulsion technologies which otherwise
will be purchased overseas.
To achieve this growth, UK Government engagement and support, in partnership with
industry, will be required to balance affordability of technology development and
manufacturing investment with regulatory needs for low CO2 and improved air quality.
A number of recommendations are detailed in this report to capitalise on UK strengths
and growth opportunities. However, the key actions are:
FOR INDUSTRY:
To improve co-ordination of R&D agendas through an Automotive Council Advisory
Group, connecting our strong academic and manufacturing base in internal
combustion engines. This would provide the foundation for building research and
development in the priority high value low CO2 propulsion technologies needed in
future decades.
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT:
It is recommended that UK Government invests £1 billion over 10 years in a co-ordinated
collaborative programme to secure this opportunity in the UK, to establish global
leadership for UK ‘research to manufacture’ capability and to develop skills in high
value, low carbon automotive propulsion systems.
International Energy Agency,
Global transport outlook to
2050 – Targets and scenarios
for a low carbon transport
sector John Dulac 2012
1 4
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Given the depth of UK capability, it is clear that the UK has significant business
opportunities in developing and producing the next generation of low carbon
advanced propulsion systems. It is also clear that in both the short and medium term,
the next generation of low carbon propulsion systems will feature advanced, clean,
internal combustion engines. Whilst a range of alternatives to the internal combustion
engine are being developed, analysis continues to show that the ICE, coupled with
varying degrees of electrification, will continue to provide the most competitive value
proposition for future consumers.
This report provides an overview of the UK internal combustion engine capability,
identifying both strengths and opportunities. The report is based on an Automotive
Council UK presentation prepared in 2013 2, with an updated section on future fuels
using the Automotive Council Energy Technology Roadmap published in March 2015 3.
Some of the UK manufacturing statistics have also been updated using data from
2014 4.
To exploit the opportunities, this report outlines five key areas that can catalyse the
growth of advanced propulsion system technology and business in the UK. These are;
1. Research to Manufacture including advanced manufacturing technology.
Improving this process is essential for innovation and industry growth.
Academia and industry need to work together to deliver a coherent approach.
2. Supplier Involvement in the value chain is essential to deliver an integrated UK
based capability for high value R&D. The “hollowing out” of the UK supply chain must
be reversed in order to deliver future growth in advanced propulsion.
3. Skills Investment to attract, train and retain technical, management and commercial
capability is vital for ICE industry success. The next generation of propulsion system
engineers will require a new and broader set of capabilities than in the past.
The UK is well placed to deliver this via its leading Academic sector.
4. R&D Focus and Impact can be enhanced through improved co-ordination,
supplier engagement and core skill development. Joining up the innovation chain
and support mechanisms in the UK would deliver a much clearer path to market
for new technologies and attract significant investment.
5. Low Carbon Economically-viable Fuels are a critical technology for low carbon
propulsion systems. Future transport energy must include more sustainable low
carbon fuels. The UK is well placed in Academia to explore Advanced Bio-fuels that
are derived from waste products. The UK is also suitably positioned to scale
up production and supply.
Low Carbon Vehicle
event 2013, Millbrook
2 Automotive Council, Energy
and Fuels Roadmap for 2050
3 IHS Global Insight
4 5
The UK has a significant business opportunity in advanced propulsion
Global demand for all aspects of mobility continues to increase with automotive
volume growth predicted to be over 60% by 2030 5. In addition, international
pressure to reduce CO2 emissions and improve air quality will drive significant
engineering effort to meet increasingly stringent emissions targets. These factors
present a major business opportunity for the UK in terms of increasing manufacturing
volume and R&D activity to develop advanced propulsion systems.
The historical strength of the UK ICE industry spans fundamental research through
to the manufacture of high value vehicles and propulsion systems, with the sector
employing professional engineers throughout the UK. In the UK today, the
automotive sector has made a strong recovery from the financial crisis in 2009. In
2014, £35 billion worth of vehicles, parts and related products were exported
accounting for 7% of UK export earnings 6. The internal combustion engine (ICE)
industry is a significant part of this sector producing more than 2.5 million engines
a year, worth an estimated £7 billion, with an additional £1 billion worth of nonautomotive engines. The majority of these engines are exported.
UK Engine Manufacture 2014
1.4
Engine Production (Millions)
1.2
1.0
Agricultural / Off
Highway
Power generation
Marine / Rail
0.8
Medium & Heavy
Vehicles
0.6
Light Commercial
Vehicles
0.4
Minivans & SUVs
Passenger Cars
0.2
Motorcycles
0
Figure 1: UK Engine Manufacture in 2014 by Application
The UK develops and produces high value, award winning engines. The Ford Ecoboost
1.0L engine developed in Dunton has been the overall winner of the Engine of the
Year Award three years running. The McLaren 3.8L V8 engine, developed and assembled
in the UK, won the Engine of the Year Award in 3-4L category in 2013 and 2014.
Off-highway engines developed and manufactured in the UK have also been recipients
of global excellence awards.
International Energy Agency,
Global transport outlook to
2050 – Targets and scenarios
for a low carbon transport
sector, John Dulac 2012
5 Automotive Council report
‘Growing the UK auto
supply chain’
6 6
There are however challenges for ICE manufacturing in the UK. In contrast with the
broad UK ICE capability, weakness in the supply base and shortage of engineering
skills compromises the effectiveness of the research to manufacture chain.
Traditionally, UK ICE capability faces competition from Germany, Japan and USA.
However, there is increasing pressure from developing nations which are growing their
range of engineering skills together with their established production base. This will
create more extensive competition for the UK in the future.
Realising the opportunity for advanced propulsion system engineering and manufacturing,
will come from a consistent research to manufacture capability, supported by a strong
academic sector, technology specialists, vehicle manufacturers and suppliers.
There are many technology options to reduce CO2 emissions from ICE
Future regulatory requirements require substantial reductions in CO2 emissions.
Mandatory EU targets for fleet average CO2 will reduce from the current level of 130g
CO2/km to 95g CO2/km in 2021. However, lower carbon products must continue to
be affordable and to meet the needs of the customer.
There are many technology options available to reduce carbon emissions for vehicles.
The two primary routes to low carbon propulsion are to either reduce the carbon
intensity of the fuel or to improve efficiency. In practice, it is likely that a combination
of these two enablers will be the most cost effective approach.
Conventional
Vehicle
Reduce Carbon in Fuel
Improved Vehicle Energy Efficiency
Low Loss
Transmissions
& Actuators
Combustion
Engine / Hybrid
2nd & 3rd
Generation
Biofuels
Hydrogen
Fuel Cells
(Low Carbon H 2 )
Automated
Intelligent
Control
Plug-in Hybrid
(Low Carbon
Electricity)
Low Carbon
Vehicle
Next Gen ICE +
Heat Recovery
Downsized
Combustion
Engines
Battery Electric
(Low Carbon
Electricity)
Natural
Gas/Biogas
Figure 2: Low carbon vehicles achieved through improved efficiency
and/or low carbon fuels
Low carbon energy options include the use of electricity (provided that grid
carbon intensity is reduced), and alternative low carbon fuels. Promising options
include natural gas with its lower carbon to hydrogen content; next generation
sustainable biofuels, largely produced from waste products; and ultimately,
hydrogen, provided it is produced from renewable and sustainable sources.
Improving energy efficiency will also be important. Options include “downsizing”
and boosting technologies to reduce friction; hybridisation to enable kinetic energy
recovery during stop start and transient operation; improved control and reducing
losses in transmission and driveline systems. Whilst there are a range of potential
options, at present there are no clear winners and a combination of technologies are
likely to be needed.
The internal combustion engine itself has considerable scope for further development.
A 50% improvement in thermal efficiency is possible in the longer term, along with
the capability to eliminate air quality emissions to lower than background levels in
cities. In the short to medium term, improvements in gasoline engine efficiency to
match those of light duty diesels are possible. Additional technologies such as waste
heat recovery technologies using turbocompounding and organic Rankine cycle can
also provide improvements. In the longer term, advanced heat recovery technology
and thermodynamic cycles could enable efficiencies of around 60%.
7
70
Advanced cycles include:
Split cycle/recuperation
Combined Stirling/Brayton/Otto
+ 2nd Gen Ex
Heat Recovery
SI Efficiencies
converge towards
DI Diesel levels
50
2nd Gen includes:
Optimised Rankine cycles
Heat to power systems
Thermo-electric systems
Gasoline
DI - Lean
LD Diesel
Gasoline
30
US DoE Target
for Combustion
engine
+ 1st Gen Ex
Heat Recovery
HD Diesel
40
Adv Cycles +
Heat Recovery
US DoE Target
including use of waste
heat
1st Gen includes:
turbocompound - elec or mech
Initial Rankine Cycles
60
hange/Friction etc
nts in FIE/Gas Exc
lutionary Investme
Evo
Improvements via
Air Quality Emissions reduced to “virtual zero”
20
Today
Time / Product Generations
Figure 3: Technology Pathways for improving ICE thermal efficiency
The selection of technology to decarbonise transport is strongly dependent on engine
and vehicle duty cycle. For passenger cars, advanced internal combustion engines
operating on lower carbon fuels with varying degrees of electrification is the most
cost effective route to meet long term CO2 targets. An evolutionary approach that
integrates both efficiency improvements and lower carbon fuels and energy is outlined
below. This shows a continuous trend to reduce parasitic losses and friction, using
additional technologies to enable further downsizing such as e-supercharging and
48V systems. Additional heat and energy recovery technologies are added as they are
developed and commercialised. Increasing electrification will deliver an evolutionary
increase in the electric driving range in critical areas, whilst a similar evolutionary
reduction in fuel carbon intensity will further reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
In combination with expected reductions in vehicle mass, advanced electrified internal
combustion based propulsion systems will be capable of drive cycle CO2 emissions of
around 30-40 gCO2 /km by 2040.
NEDC Drive Cycle CO2 (g/km)
140
Boosted Engine
Variable Geometry Turbo
12 Volt Elec System
Stop/Start
5% Bio fuel mix
Downsized 40% v Today
Turbo/Supercharged
48 Volt Motor/Generator
Low Cost Energy Store
10% biofuel mix
Downsized 70% v Today
Dual Stage Boost
Integrated Electric Machine
Thermoelectric Generator
25% biofuel mix
120
Extreme Downsizing
Advanced Cycle/Heat Rec
Integrated Systems
Advanced Thermoelectrics
Synthetic fuel mix
Fuel
Fuel
100
Fuel
+
-
80
+
+
60
Fuel
Fuel
40
Pot
enti
+
20
Base
-9%
-21%
-34%
-41%
-45%
-48%
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Figure 4: Example technology pathway:
downsizing/electrification/heat recovery combination
8
y
Increasing City/Low Speed Electric Drive Capability
Vehicle Weight Reduction:
0
2005
al N
EDC
CO
2 Cap
abili
t
2045
Heavy duty on and off-highway and power generation applications have higher power
output and vehicle/machine duty requirements. Advanced combustion engines for
these applications will combine energy/heat recovery and operation on low carbon
fuels to deliver viable low carbon commercial propositions to customers.
In summary, there are many technical options for reducing to reduce fuel consumption
and CO2 emissions. All have challenges and there are no clear winners.
The future vision for low carbon propulsion systems will feature advanced ICEs
Targeted incentives and legislative policies can encourage customers towards low carbon
solutions. However, the rate of change in the market will be determined by the relative
functionalities and cost of ownership, which will vary for each market segment.
The technical feasibility of an evolution to electrified propulsion will vary across the
wide range of markets depending on vehicle type and usage. The battery specification
required for an application, and therefore cost of electrification, is related to required
power output and expected daily usage. Analysis of propulsion system capabilities
and affordability in the 2030-40 timeframe is shown in Figure 5 below. This includes
contours of battery cost for different levels of functionality for a range of on and offhighway applications.
2030-40 Propulsion Capability & Affordability
Van (Long
Distance)
Ave Daily Use
Max Daily Use
Daily Usage (Hr)
10
C-Car
Unlikely to Electrify
Heavy vehicle + high usage
= Unaffordable battery
Yard
Tractor
Van
(Urban)
sion
pul y cost
Pro
r
cal d batte
i
r
t
Elec ge an
Sub-B
&
a
ICE size, us
ted
gra vehicle
e
t
In cing
1
£30
k Ba
tter
n
Bala
Most Likely to Electrify
Small vehicle + low usage
= Cheapest battery
0
2
£2k
£12
k Ba
tter
y
y
Bat
tery
20
Motive Power Req (kW)
200
Figure 5: Analysis of propulsion system capabilities and affordability
in the 2030-40 timeframe
The relatively low battery cost implications for a low vehicle mass and low daily
usage Sub-B segment vehicle means that this segment could be the first to electrify.
The majority of vehicle segments will benefit from partial electrification integrated
with a low carbon ICE in some form, balancing power requirements, vehicle usage
and additional battery cost. However, heavy duty vehicles would be unable to meet
operating needs with electrified propulsion utilising foreseeable battery technologies.
A customer ‘Cost of Ownership’ driven transition to fully electrified propulsion is
heavily influenced by fuel and technology cost. Even in the Sub-B segments, fuel
and technology cost variation can significantly defer and even eliminate customer
demand. The graphs overleaf illustrate the effect various factors could have on cost of
ownership over the first 4 years of the vehicle’s life. In this analysis, ICE price gradually
increases over time due to inflationary pressures on a mature technology. Whereas the
price of BEV and HEV technologies initially decreases, due to economies of scale, and
then increases as the supply chain and technology mature.
9
BEV @ 6kWh > 60km Range
Ave ICE Tech Cost = 80 £/% CO2
Year of Year Fuel price rise 1%
9
8
7
6
5
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
ICE
HEV
PHEV
BEV
2035
2040
ICE CO2 Tech
Cost reduction
@ 50% of baseline
11
4yr Cost of Ownership (£k)
11
10
BEV
Battery
Size
6kW >
10kW
8
7
ICE
PHEV
6
5
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
HEV
BEV
2040
BEV @ 10kWh > 100km Range
10
9
8
7
6
5 Year
Yo
2045
2010
2015
Pri Y Fu
e
fro ce Ri l
se
m
1%
> 3 11
%
Ave ICE Tech Cost = 40 £/% CO2
9
4yr Cost of Ownership (£k)
10
4yr Cost of Ownership (£k)
4yr Cost of Ownership (£k)
11
2045
2020
2025
ICE
HEV
PHEV
BEV
2030
2035
2040
2045
3% YoY Fuel price rise
10
9
8
7
ICE
PHEV
6
5
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
HEV
BEV
2040
2045
Figure 6: Modelling cost of ownership with different input factors
Under the baseline scenario (top left chart) (6kWh battery, 60km range, average ICE
technology cost £80 per %CO2 reduction, and year on year fuel price rise of 1%)
the BEV cost of ownership over the first four years is equal to ICE by around 2020.
Increasing EV price, by increasing battery size, delays this point until around 2023
(top right chart). Reducing ICE technology cost to £40 per %CO2, delays parity
of cost of ownership until around 2027 (bottom left chart).
In general, battery technology evolution for cost and weight will support progressive
increases in electrification, but operating factors (range, payload and costs) will drive
demand for low carbon ICE until at least 2040.
The ERTRAC Strategic Research Agenda for 50% more efficient road transport defines
a key role for ICEs, predicting that ICE based powertrains will maintain a significant
market share to 2050. ERTRAC’s longer term vision defines a need for a wide range
of complementary propulsion systems and fuel/energy types to be developed
simultaneously.
Road transport energy source
Per cent of new passenger vehicle sales
using each energy source/powertrain
100
90
Fossil diesel
Fossil diesel
Fossil diesel
Electric Energy
80
Fossil gasoline
All fuels (CNG, LPG)
Propulsion technology
The trend towards 2050
80
Diesel hybrid
70
60
10
60
50
50
Advanced
spark ignition
40
30
40
30
Spark ignition
hybrid
20
Plug-in hybrid/range extender
20
10
Full electric (fuel cell)
10
Adapted ICE
2015
2020
2025
2030
2030
Figure 7: ERTRAC projections of future road transport energy sources
ERTRAC Strategic Research
Agenda, Towards a 50%
more efficient transport
system by 2030
70
Advanced flexible
combusion techniques
0
2010
7 100
90
Advanced diesel
2050
7
0
2.0 FIVE CATALYSING ACTIVITY AREAS
FOR UK ICE INDUSTRY
Internal combustion engines, in varying forms, will continue to contribute value to
future low carbon automotive propulsion systems for at least the next 30 years.
The development and manufacture of ICEs therefore presents a significant opportunity
for the UK in terms of GDP and skilled, professional jobs. While this industry is
currently buoyant, there remain challenges to maintaining competitiveness with
increasing pressure from OEMs and suppliers in developing markets. This report
proposes five key activity areas where support is needed to catalyse the UK internal
combustion engine industry, based on a wide ranging industry consultation
coordinated by the Automotive Council. These activity areas are:
1. Research to Manufacture
2. Supplier Involvement
3. Skills Investment
4. Research and Development
5. Low carbon fuels
Each activity area is discussed in the following sections, along with detailed
recommendations for action.
2.1 THE RESEARCH TO MANUFACTURE (R2M) SUPPLY CHAIN NEEDS
TO BE REVITALISED IN THE UK TO BRING FUTURE ICE LOW CARBON
TECHNOLOGIES TO MARKET
Bringing a new technology from concept to market in the automotive industry
requires significant engineering effort and commercial support from a blend of
organisations that form the Research to Manufacture (R2M) supply chain. In the UK,
early TRL development is supported by funding bodies such as EPSRC and Innovate
UK. Market implementation is then driven by a strong UK manufacturing base.
The UK has a range of skilled ICE engineers to take clean sheet ideas into production.
These engineers are based in universities, SMEs, OEMs, the existing ICE manufacturing
base, specialised consultancies and key supporting industries. There is, however, a gap
in the support from the supply chain between proof of concept and acceptance of
commercial viability for a new technology. This gap between research and exploitation
is manifested by an inability to promote inventions though to manufacture.
ICE Technology Readiness
TRL 1
TRL 2
TRL 3
TRL 4
TRL 5
TRL 6
TRL 7
GAP!
EPSRC
Strong UK Academic
R&D Capability
World class Universities
Active in ICE technologies
£12mio / year ICE research
TSB
Strong UK Contract
R&D organisations
New ideas / innovations
Reduces OEM investment
Provide flexible capacity
TRL 8
Innovate UK funding and OEM development
cycles are not always in step - need a new
machanism that matches the development
cycles
Industry
Industrialisation Specialist
Technology Developer
GAP!
MRL 1
MRL 2
MRL 3
MRL 4
MRL 5
TRL 9
MRL 6
MRL 7
MRL 8
Strong UK
Manufacturing base
2.75 million engines/year
Value £7Bn / year
Majority are exported
MRL 9
MRL 10
ICE Manufacturing Readiness
Fundamental
Research
Industrial
Research
Pre-competitive
Development
Product Development
Figure 8: Migration from Technology Readiness to Manufacturing Readiness
11
A mechanism is needed to repair this technology gap and to promote the
development of innovative low carbon internal combustion engines. The links
between industry and academia play a key role. A co-ordinated approach between
these stakeholders could provide strategic direction and practical support in the
development and up-scaling of manufacturing processes for key emerging low carbon
ICE technologies.
RECOMMENDATIONS
• U K based academia and industry need a new mechanism,
with incentives, to work together to secure sustainable UK
industrialisation of future ICE low carbon technologies
2.2 SUPPLIER INVOLVEMENT IN AN INTEGRATED UK BASED CAPABILITY
FOR HIGH VALUE R&D IS A MEANS TO FUTURE GROWTH IN ADVANCED
PROPULSION
The translation of Intellectual Property to manufacture can be represented as a
virtuous triangle, where innovative technology is brought to market with support from
Government agencies, Tier 1 suppliers and business pull from OEMs.
Government agencies incentivise and
promote inclusive collaboration
throughout the R2M cycle, with
strategic investment, providing
equitable retun across
economic cycles
IP owner
The
virtuous triangle
requires
engineering skills
throughout R2M
OEM In-House
Developing entrepreneurs
relies on extending the
UK Tier 1 supply base
to enable research
to manufacture
Supplier
Tier 1 Supplier
SME
University
Fundamental
Research
Small Floor
Trials
Tech
Demo
Innovations are brought
to market supported by
Tier 1 capabilities and
business pull from OEMs
Industry led governance,
with Automotive Council
evaluating, prioritising
and recommending
full R2M support
to innovations
department.
Typically 1 unit
Industrial
Research
Pre-competitive
Development
A Tier 1 risks the R2M investment in an invention,
if a business case combines with the psychological
incentive of meeting future needs of multiple OEMs
OEM
Figure 9: IP virtuous triangle
Currently barriers exist to the exploitation of IP due to a lack of Tier 1 suppliers in the
UK. This in turn limits academia effectiveness and OEM efficiency. Some successful
technology development is undertaken by OEMs, contract R&D providers and IP
owners supported by Innovate UK IDP programmes. However the lack of UK Tier 1
R&D and resulting poor supply chain involvement limits effectiveness.
Incentivising supplier participation in Innovate UK and AMSCII supported projects
is therefore a priority to ensure that Tier 1 suppliers of high value engine systems
are at the core of the innovation process. Success relies on the establishment and
maintenance of a strategy and governance for inclusive supplier participation in UK
led propulsion system innovation.
Links between SMEs and Tier 1s can also play a key role in repairing this technology
gap, with SMEs acting as a bridge between academia and Tier 1s. Investment in UK
SMEs by UK based or international Tier 1s could provide a mechanism to support
closer co-operation in this part of the R2M chain.
12
Supplier involvement in the UK based R2M chain for high value R&D is a means to
future growth in advanced propulsion. An established supply base will develop high
technology / high value products, with entrepreneurs and researchers, realising
intellectual property into production. Given the current lack of UK based Tier 1
suppliers, bringing international supplier investment into the UK will grow and
augment the existing capability for engine manufacturing and R2M, resulting in
stable, high value, professional jobs. However, attracting this supplier investment
requires an existing pool of R&D skills.
RECOMMENDATIONS
• U
K Automotive Council should take the technical lead in defining
the on-going high value R&D agenda that will attract investment
from the international supply base
• E
ffective communication, using existing events and new approaches,
is required to build awareness, facilitate networking, and attract
international investment
2.3 SKILLS INVESTMENT TO ATTRACT, TRAIN AND RETAIN TECHNICAL,
MANAGEMENT AND COMMERCIAL CAPABILITY IS VITAL FOR ICE
INDUSTRY SUCCESS
Strong technical, management and commercial skills are necessary at all levels to
enable the design, development and manufacture of advanced ICEs. A recent report
by Engineering UK8 highlighted the need to recruit more people into the engineering
profession. ‘The State of Engineering 2013’ report projected the need for 87,000
people per year with engineering qualifications9 to satisfy UK engineering companies.
Currently the UK only produces 46,000 such people per year.
This skills shortage leads to strong competition for engineers from other sectors.
It is therefore important to promote ICE as a career via a range of activities:
• Active promotion and positive media coverage showcasing ICE technologies and
innovative work in the ICE industry.
• Investment in the whole of the ICE skills supply-chain: stronger and more active
support for school physics, maths, design and technology teaching; enhanced
university ICE engineering teaching and research; more engineering apprenticeships
and technician training; all with sustained mentoring.
• Better, earlier careers advice to inform talented students of the exciting and
rewarding opportunities in the ICE industry from design and manufacturing to
cutting edge research and corporate boardroom positions.
RECOMMENDATIONS
• E
mbed ICE skills development in the proposed Advanced Propulsion
Centre
• M
ore investment in skills and stronger engagement of all stakeholders
in the ICE skills supply-chain: schools / colleges; UTCs; universities;
OEMs and Tier suppliers; engineering institutes; government
organisations
The State of Engineering
2013 report by Engineering
UK published on 3 December
2012, available at:
www.engineeringuk.com
8 i.e. HNC/D, foundation degree,
graduate and postgraduate
9 13
2.4 R&D FOCUS AND IMPACT CAN BE ENHANCED THROUGH IMPROVED
COLLABORATION ACROSS THE SUPPLY CHAIN AND CORE SKILL DEVELOPMENT
The UK has some world class Universities, a strong commercial R&D sector and a
significant ICE manufacturing and assembly base. However, there are gaps in the
links between academic and industrial research agendas, and a lack of investment
in academic facilities, which reduces focus and impact of R&D activities. To rebuild
these links, a clear vision of future R&D priorities and a mechanism to maintain links
throughout the supply chain are needed.
The Automotive Council developed a consensus roadmap in 200910 to define a
role and phasing for ICE technology to meet future regulatory and commercial
needs (Figure 10). Each arrow on this technology roadmap represents a family
of technologies. The start of an arrow indicates expected market entry, with the
technology integrated into the powertrain system in at least one application.
The initial shading represents the technology maturing as it is developed further,
and as more applications adopt the technology. The technologies either continue
for the duration of the roadmap, or are superseded by other technologies.
For example, mechanical turbocompounding is replaced by electrical
turbocompounding by 2018.
Euro 5
2009
Euro 6
2014
Euro 7
2019?
Air Quality
Fuel injection system optimisation
Increased charge air boost efficiency/range
High efficiency low NOx combustion concepts
Thermal
Efficiency
Reduced combustion heat losses
Mech. turbocompound
Electrical turbocompound
Organic rankine cycles
Split/recuperated cycle
Lower mechanical friction (coatings / bearings, etc)
Downsizing & boosting technologies
Systems
Efficiency
Downspeeding for lower friction
Variable power ancillaries
Low thermal inertia/fast warm-up systems
Thermo-electric generators
Integrated electrification & energy recovery technologies
Flexible valve trains (timing/lift/actuation)
Real Time Models
Closed loop/feed back tuning
Enabling
Technologies
Model Based Control
Integrated PM and NXo emissions control systems
Active charge thermal management/control
Advanced/new lightweight materials
Flexible/fast response boost
Thermal energy storage/fast warm-up
2010
EU Fleet Average
CO2 Targets (g/km)
130
2015
2020
2025
55
TBD
2030
EU Fleet Average
CO2 Targets (g/km)
Figure 10: Automotive Council UK Powertrain (ICE) Technology Roadmap
Key market drivers for ICE technology are emissions legislation for improving air quality,
and CO2 targets for reducing GHG emissions and improving efficiency. The ICE
technology roadmap shows that a range of technologies will be needed to meet these
future challenges of reducing fuel consumption and making engines cleaner. The
technologies have been grouped into three themes. Within each theme the technologies
follow a logical progression from “easier to implement” to “more complex solutions”.
“An Independent Report on
the Future of the Automotive
Industry in the UK”,
published by NAIGT
10 14
The three roadmap themes are:
• T
echnology to improve thermal efficiency through improving combustion
processes and recovering waste heat energy from the exhaust. For example,
optimised fuel injection equipment (FIE), turbocompounding and organic Rankine
cycle. Turbocompounding enables waste energy from the exhaust to be recovered
and re-used. Organic Rankine cycle uses exhaust heat to boil a working fluid and
drive a turbine thereby generating useful work.
• T
echnology to improve system efficiency through reducing friction and losses,
and reducing thermal inertia for improving engine warm-up. For example, low
friction materials and coatings, downsizing and/or downspeeding the engine,
introducing variable power ancillaries to reduce parasitic losses, and improving the
thermal system for faster warm-up.
• Enabling technologies to support the introduction of advanced thermal and system
technologies, thus indirectly contributing to improving CO2 and air quality emissions.
For example, flexible valve trains, advanced control algorithms, flexible boosting,
and thermal energy storage. Flexible valve train technologies allow more flexible
control of intake and exhaust valve opening and closing. Engine control algorithms
are developing towards closed loop feedback for engine self-tuning. Flexible
boosting systems with a faster response will aid downsizing and thermal energy
storage systems that store heat from the engine, which is re-used during cold start
for faster warm-up.
The main challenges for the automotive industry are developing the most cost
effective technology solutions, and identifying the best combination of technologies
for a specific application and its legislative requirements.
A UK TSB study performed in 201011 reviewed UK capability in technology areas identified
by the consensus roadmap to highlight where support was needed. The work rated
the UK capability in a range of technology areas in the short, medium and long
term (as shown in Figure 11 below). Strong capability was identified in FIE and high
efficiency combustion, air handling, variable power ancillaries and friction reduction.
Future Technologies
Capability Study Definitions
UK Capability Rating*
Short Term
Med. Term
Long Term
A.1. Fuel injection equipment
Strong
Significant
Significant
Flexible/Fast Response Boost
Improved boost Fee/operating range
Charge Thermal Management
A.2. Air handling. incl. boost systems
Strong
Significant
Significant
Lower Mech. Friction
A.3. Friction reduction technology
Strong
Strong
Strong
Variable Power Ancillaries
A.4. Alternative actuation
Strong
Some
Some
Thermal Energy Storage
Mechanical/Elec Turbocompond
Organic Rankine Cycles
Thermoelectronic Generators
A.5. Thermal/heat energy recovery systems
None
Significant
Strong
Adv. Regen of Split Cycle
Reduced Comb. Heat Losses
A.6. Novel thermodynamic cycles for high efficiency
None
Strong
Significant
Flexible Valve Trains
A.7. Flexible valvetrains
Some
Strong
Strong
Electrification or Energy Recovery
A.8. Engines for special duty cycle (e.g. HEV, PHEV)
None
Significant
Significant
Advanced/New Materials
A.9. Other (e.g. Novel Materials, additives, lubricants)
None
None
None
Downsizing & Boosting
Downspeeding
A.10. Integrated engine design and development
Significant
Significant
Significant
Fuel Injection Optimisation
High Efficiency Combustion
Advanced Control Approaches
Pm & NOx Emissions Control
Low Inertia Fast Warmup
Re-cycling & Re-manufacturing
*Key
No Evidence of Tech Need
Some Evidence of R&D & Capability
Strong Evidence of R&D & Capability
Significant Evidence of R&D & Capability
Figure 11: UK ICE Technology Capability
“Automotive technologies:
the UK’s current capability”
11 15
Technology focus areas were then selected to either exploit areas of strength for the
UK or to develop capability where it could give potential for high commercial benefit
in the future (shown in red in Figure 12 below).
Proposed UK Focus Areas
Strong UK Capacity
Less Strong UK Capacity
Higher Commercial Benefit
Improved boost/efficiency/operating
range
Thermal
Efficiency
High efficiency combusion/Lean/
strat charge SI systems
Electrification/Integration of IC
engine
and e-machines/energy recovery
Organic Rankine Cycles
Thermo-electric systems for
heat energy recovery
Thermal energy storage
Variable power ancillaries
Charge air thermal
management
Downspeeding
Improved thermal systems
Low inertia/fast warm up
technologies
Flexible valve trains
Enabling
Technologies
Mechanical
Turbocompound
Advanced regenerative cycles with
heat recovery
Downsizing/Boosting
System
Efficiency
Lower Commercial Benefit
Electrical Turbocompound
Flexible/high pressure fuel injection
systems (CI)
Advanced control approaches
Lower mechanical friction
Advanced Pm and NOx control
for improved efficiency
Reduced combusion heat loss/
thermal barrier coating
Flexible/high pressure fuel
injection systems (Si) (enabling
lean stratifies operation)
Advanced new materials
Figure 12: Proposed UK focus areas
The UK academic community plays a key role in both the development of early stage
technology and in the delivery of future skills. It is therefore important that academia
and industry have a shared vision of future ICE technology pathways.
The UK academic community is focused on most of the key ICE technologies, such as
combustion, emissions, fluid flow, fuels, tribology, FIE, air systems, control, dynamics,
NVH, and catalysis. However, more could be done to inform and engage UK
universities with key future industry challenges. Engagement with Automotive Council
roadmapping activities and vehicle, systems and component OEMs can focus effort on
the key future technologies and development direction.
Improved co-ordination between academia and industry could be achieved through
the formation of a joint EPSRC, industry and universities advisory group, using the
model already in use in a number of other sectors. The purpose of this forum would
be to improve two-way communication between industry and academia, to share
industry priorities and investment opportunities, to disseminate new approaches and
blue sky thinking from the academic sector, and to encourage collaboration between
universities and industry groups.
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Create an R&D Advisory Group including Innovate UK, EPSRC,
academic and industrial (OEM / Suppliers) representatives
under the umbrella of the Automotive Council Technology Group.
• F orm an innovation catalyst focused on commercialising core
Automotive Council topics that can be used to develop and
train engineers in key technology areas.
16
2.5 LOW CARBON ECONOMICALLY VIABLE FUELS ARE A
CRITICAL TECHNOLOGY FOR LOW CARBON PROPULSION SYSTEMS
Low carbon fuels are of particular importance for Heavy Duty and high power
applications where alternatives such as electrification are not expected to be viable
in the short to medium term. A low carbon fuels roadmap was developed on behalf
of the Automotive Council by a range of industry stakeholders in 2014. The roadmap
(shown in Figure 13 below) provides insight into potential pathways to meet 2050 CO2
reduction targets.
Figure 13: Automotive Council UK Energy Roadmap to 2050
The roadmap shows a long term transition from gasoline and diesel fuels to a majority
renewable portfolio in a 2050 timeframe. The most logical route to work towards the
European Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation is to increase the ethanol content in
gasoline from the current 5% to 10%, probably around 2017. In the medium to long
term, subject to the availability of sustainable feedstocks, there is a choice to move
to either higher ethanol blends of 20% or more or to develop “drop-in” bio-gasoline
blends that retain existing gasoline specifications. For the former route, it would also
be necessary to retain a protection grade fuel for older vehicles.
Biodiesel blend levels could also contain more bio-content beyond the current B7
blend wall if further ‘drop-in’ components, such as HVO, can be developed.
Again, existing fuel specifications must be retained.
The wide range of niche fuels, such as hydrogen and CNG, can be expected to move
into the mainstream only if supported by policy drivers. Such policy drivers could
include specific measures to further reduce GHG emissions or restrictions on certain
fuels to improve city air quality. Adequate availability, refuelling infrastructure and a
suitable fiscal environment would also be necessary.
Power to gas technology could provide an opportunity for the storage of ‘wrong
time’ renewable energy, if this energy is converted into either hydrogen or synthetic
natural gas. These gases could subsequently be used directly as a transport fuel, or to
substitute for the large quantities of fossil based hydrogen used in the refining process
for fossil gasoline and diesel. This could significantly reduce CO2 emissions from
transport and would apply to all current vehicles.
17
Fossil sourced gasoline and diesel will remain dominant in the short and medium term
with the rate of commercialisation of low carbon fuel technologies strongly influenced
by legislative drivers and fiscal incentives. Fluctuating oil prices and any inconsistent
policy signals will lead to uncertainty in the commercial viability of biofuels and
alternative fuels implementation, and subsequent delays in implementation.
Therefore, both future fuel and energy policies need to be co-ordinated on a global
basis to achieve interoperability across national boundaries and economies of scale,
whilst meeting strict sustainability criteria and economic demands.
A primary requirement to deliver the roadmap is the development of sustainable and
affordable “drop-in” biofuels whilst maintaining current fuel specifications. Industry
and academia need to work collaboratively to develop both the specifications and
processes that can be economically scaled-up to provide these future fuels.
RECOMMENDATIONS
• A
stable, long-term policy is required by Government to encourage
collaboration and focused investment across fuel supply and ICE /
vehicle industries, and to bring low carbon fuels to market
18
3.0 CONCLUSIONS
Research, development and manufacture of internal combustion engines continues to
be a UK strength, providing significant benefit to the UK economy. Detailed analysis
shows that the internal combustion engine, operating on low carbon fuels with
varying degrees of electrification, is the most logical technology route for meeting
future on and off-highway regulatory requirements and customer needs. Global
demand for low carbon propulsion systems is increasing, providing an opportunity
for the UK to grow propulsion supply chains for added value systems. However,
these UK supply chains urgently require investment in skills, capability and advanced
manufacturing technology to capture this opportunity.
The Automotive Council UK recommends improving the coordination of
propulsion system R&D agendas between academia and industry, to better
support the development of high value low CO2 propulsion technologies and the
process from research to manufacture.
Stable, long-term policy from Government is required to encourage collaboration
and focused investment across the fuel supply and ICE / vehicle industries, and to
bring new low carbon sustainable fuels to market. Government support is also
required for the development of UK advanced manufacturing supply chains to
deliver added value low carbon systems for the next generation of on and offhighway engines.
Therefore, the Automotive Council UK have two key propositions, one for industry
and one for government.
THE TWO KEY PROPOSITIONS:
For Industry
To derive the most benefit from our strong academic and vehicle OEM led R&D base,
with new technologies emerging from SME’s, an Automotive Council Advisory Group
should be formed to co-ordinate collaborative R&D agendas from basic research,
through application to demonstration and industrialisation with a specific focus on
‘Research to Manufacturing’ (R2M). This would provide the foundation to build
research and development of the priority high value low CO2 propulsion technologies
needed in future decades.
For Government
To realise the opportunity for growth in low carbon propulsion systems, an investment
of ~£1 billion over 10 years in a co-ordinated Industry/Government collaborative
programme is recommended to establish global leadership for UK ‘Research to
Manufacture’ capability and skills in an improved supply network that can provide
high value, low carbon automotive propulsion systems.
This initiative should be developed to attract both supplier and OEM investments,
increasing capacity by a conservative 10%, and UK sourcing by a targeted 20%. The
outcome of such an initiative could be £2.1 billion growth of the UK ICE industry,
Figure 14: UK Value Proposition for growing the UK ICE Industry
representing almost 100% return on investment over 10 years. This would generate
almost the same amount (£1.8 billion) in value add revenues (@20%) over that same
time frame, with £400m on-going annual income.
UK Propulsion
UK Proposition
R2M
Fuels
Skills
Attractive
Operation
Costs
Investment
Decision
R&D
Attractive
Investment
Costs
OEM
Supply
+10% UK
Value
+£700m
+20% UK
Value
+£1.4bn
£2.1bn
UK Industry
Growth
Commit now for future growth
Figure 14: UK Value Proposition for growing the UK ICE Industry
Q010350
Client Confidential - APC
22 June 2015
© Ricardo plc 2015
1
19
This summary report has been prepared with the support of a wide range of
stakeholders
This summary report has received contributions and advice from the following team
members and organisations:
Neville Jackson
Ricardo (Chairman)
John Turton
Nissan
Richard Banks
BMW
Jamie Turner
Lotus
Martyn Hawley
SAIC
Colin Loud
JCB
Dave Yuill
BIS
Marco Warth
Mahle
John Kell
UKTI
David Skipp
Ford (Manager/Co-ordinator)
Steve Richardson
Jaguar LandRover
Steve Faulkner
Caterpillar
Brian Gush
Bentley
Colin Garner
Loughborough University
Pierre French
Cummins Turbo Technologies
Richard Hall
Schaeffler
John Laughlin
Technology Strategy Board
The key messages and recommendations in this report are supported by a broad
consensus from the team members.
However, each organisation will apply its own priorities to specific policies and
technologies which best address their own brand values and market sectors
in which they operate.
20
Acronyms and Abbreviations
CO2
Carbon Dioxide
EPSRC
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
FIE
Fuel Injection Equipment
ICE
Internal Combustion Engine
IP
Intellectual Property
MRL
Manufacturing Readiness Level
NVH
Noise, Vibration and Harshness
OEM
Original Equipment Manufacturer
R&D
Research and Development
R2M
Research to Manufacture
SME
Small Medium Enterprise
TRL
Technology Readiness Level
UTC
University Technical College
21
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