The Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 – A period of high birth and death
rates
Reasons for high birth rate –
- Limited birth control and family
planning
- High infant mortality rate
- Children are seen as future source of
income
- Children seen as a sign of strength
- Some religions encourage large families
Reasons for high death rate –
- High incidence of disease
- Poor nutrition and famine
- Poor hygiene
- Inadequate health facilities
Stage 4 – A period of low birth
rate and low death rate, both of
which fluctuate. Population
growth is small and fertility
continues to fall
Reasons for the low levels –
There are significant changes in
personal lifestyles. More women
in workforce, high personal
incomes and more leisure
interests
Stage 2 – A period of high birth rate but
falling death rate. Population growth is
quick and expanding
Reasons for declining death rate –
- Improved public health
- Better nutrition
- Lower child mortality
- Improved medical provision
Stage 3 – A period of falling birth rate
and continuing falling death rate.
Population growth slows down very
slightly but still high
Reasons for falling birth rate –
- Changing socio-economic
conditions
- Greater access to education for
women
- Preferences for smaller families
- Rise in materialism
- Increased personal wealth
- Compulsory schooling which can be
expensive
- Lower infant mortality
- The availability of family planning
systems
Stage 5 – A period during
which the death rate slightly
exceeds the birth rate causing
population decline
Reasons for the decline –
- A rise in individualism
- Greater financial
independence of women
- Concern over the
population-resource
- An increase in nontraditional lifestyles
- A rise in the ideas of
childlessness
The Demographic Transition Model
Demographic Transition Model
Analysing Countries at different stages of the model
1. Sierra Leone
Demographic Transition of Sierra Leone between 1970 and 2008
60
Series2
Series3
Birth and Death Rate /1000
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Time
Describe the demographic transition of the above. State what major changes there have been and if there have
been any movements between stages since 1970.
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2. Rwanda
Demographic Transition of Rwanda between 1970 and 2008
120
Series2
Series3
Birth and Death Rate /1000
100
80
60
40
20
0
1970 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Time
Describe the demographic transition of the above. State what major changes there have been and if there have
been any movements between stages since 1970.
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3. India
Demographic Transition of India between 1891 and 2008
60
Series2
Series3
Birth and Death Rate /1000
50
40
30
20
10
0
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2008
Time
Describe the demographic transition of the above. State what major changes there have been and if there have
been any movements between stages since 1970.
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4. Botswana
Demographic Transition of Botswana between 1970 and 2008
60
Series2
Series3
Birth and Death Rate /1000
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Time
Describe the demographic transition of the above. State what major changes there have been and if there have
been any movements between stages since 1970.
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5. Italy
Demographic Transition of Italy between 1970 and 2008
18
16
Series2
Series3
Birth and Death Rate /1000
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1970 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Time
Describe the demographic transition of the above. State what major changes there have been and if there have
been any movements between stages since 1970.
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