World Meteorological Organization
WMO OMM
Working together in weather, climate and water
Polar Regional Climate Centres and
Polar Climate Outlook Forums
R. Kolli and L. Malone
WMO Secretariat
EC-PORS Meeting
Sodankylä, Finland , 6-8 February 2012
WMO
www.wmo.int
WMO OMM
Need for a CLIPS initiative in
Polar Regions
There is a need for consistent, useful, operational climate
information, products and services for high latitudes:
Rapid change is
affecting traditional way
of life, health and safety;
threatens land-based,
freshwater and marine
species
Industry including
land and marine
transportation,
mining, oil and gas
exploration and
energy production
must consider
climate variability
and change in
planning and
operations
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Context
• It can be a challenge to provide information and services
to populations living and working in these challenging and
remote environments.
• Technology and automation both help and hinder delivery
of valued services:
– automated observations of the climate, semi-automated
production of forecasts, automated service delivery
mechanisms do ensure that some information flows to users
– lack of provider-user interaction hinders uptake/use
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Points to ponder
• Environmental, economic, political and social conditions at high
latitudes are changing rapidly….People, sectors, governments
need climate information…all the time. Decisions will not wait
until we have better observations, better predictions.
– Can we find a way to ensure they have high quality, useful products
and services, reduce uncertainty, build resilience?
• There is a need to identify vulnerability and climate information
requirements, to improve the flow of useful information for
decision-making, and to facilitate effective use of this
information through improved liaison with user groups.
– Can we identify opportunities for collaboration between NMHSs,
northern organizations, partners and other stakeholders to do this?
• What are the risks of inaction?
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•
Background
Early WMO/WCRP/IPY initiatives to promote CLIPS concept in Polar Regions taken
in 2008 (Polar CLIPS Workshop, St. Petersburg)
– Polar Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF) widely endorsed as an effective mechanism to
facilitate sustained interaction between and among climate service providers and
users/stakeholders
– Considerable research and capacity development will be required for effective operations
of PCOF
– Low predictability on seasonal scales in the Polar Regions recognized; Climate data and
monitoring products as well as climate change information, tailored to user needs, may
initially form the focus of PCOF operations
•
CCl-XV (2010) provides a major thrust to the establishment of Regional Climate
Centres (RCCs) around the world
– Interest in Polar RCCs as well as PCOFs expressed and supported
•
•
PORS-1 and 2 encourage further development of the Polar RCC and PCOF concepts
GIPPS Concept strategy approved by Cg-XVI notes the useful role of Polar RCCs
and RCOFs
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Polar CLIPS Workshop
Recommendations (1)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Exploit climate data – especially new IPY datasets
Measure the ECVs; Promote polar ‘supersites’
Correct precipitation datasets for known biases
Improve remote sensing of rainfall and snowfall
Promote free/open exchange of climate information
Conduct research into downscaling and improving
predictions – improve models for high latitude areas
• Develop/share statistical tools (e.g. for extremes)
• Provide climate monitoring products to users, with
information on interpretation and use
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PolarCLIPS Workshop
Recommendations (2)
• ID the climate vulnerability of users at high latitudes and
needs for climate information to address these – surveys
• Improve interdisciplinary collaboration and user liaison
• Develop new info and operational products for decisionmaking
• Develop the concept of PCOF as a vaible operational
mechanism to facilitate user services and feedback
• Build capacity, including technical training for providers and
joint efforts for providers and users together
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Global Producing Centres of LRF
• In 2006, centres making global monthly to seasonal forecasts started
to be designated as WMO Global Producing Centres of Long Range
Forecasts (GPCs)
• GPCs adhere to defined standards – aiding consistency and usability
of output:
– a fixed forecast production cycle
– a standard set of forecast products
– WMO-defined verification standards (for retrospective forecasts)
• 12 GPCs designated so far: Beijing, CPTEC, ECMWF, Exeter,
Melbourne, Montreal, Moscow, Pretoria, Seoul, Tokyo, Toulouse,
Washington
• Links to the GPCs can be found through WMO web page:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/producers_forecasts.html
• Lead Centres for WMO Standard Verification System for Long-Range
Forecasts (SVSLRF) and LRF Multi-Model Ensembles (LRFMME)
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Currently Designated GPCs
Links to GPCs: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/producers_forecasts.html
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Regional Climate Centres in the
Climate Services Information System of GFCS
Global Level
Global
GlobalProducing
ProducingCentres
Centres
Regional
RegionalClimate
ClimateCentres
Centres
Regional Level
National Level
NMHSs
NMHSs
Global Seasonal Climate
Update
Regional Climate
Outlook Forums
National Climate
Outlook Forums
Sectoral Users: Agriculture, Water, Energy, etc.
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Regional Climate Centres (RCC)
• WMO Regional Climate Centres are centres of excellence
that create regional climate products including long-range
forecasts in support of regional and national climate
activities and thereby strengthen capacity of WMO Members
in a given region to deliver better climate services to national
users.
• RCC users: NMHSs, other RCCs, etc.
• WMO RCC responsibilities shall be regional in nature and
shall not duplicate or replace national responsibnilities.
• Establishment of RCCs is initiated by WMO Regional
Associations, based on regional needs and priorities.
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WMO RCCs: Definitions
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WMO-RCC
A multifunctional centre that fulfils all the required
functions of an RCC for the entire region, or for a sub
region to be defined by the Regional Association
WMO RCC-Network
A group of centres performing climate-related activities
that collectively fulfil all the required functions of an RCC
WMO RCC-Network Node
• a centre in a designated WMO RCC-Network
• a node will perform, for the Region or sub-region defined by the Regional Association,
one or several of the mandatory RCC activities
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RCC Functions
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• Mandatory Functions:
– Operational Activities for LRF
– Operational Activities for Climate Monitoring
– Operational Data Services, to support operational LRF and climate
monitoring
– Training in the use of operational RCC products and services
• Highly Recommended Functions:
–
–
–
–
–
Climate prediction and projection
Non-operational data services
Coordination functions
Training and capacity building
Research and development
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WMO RCC Status Worldwide
NEACC
BCC
TCC
ACMAD
CIIFEN
Designated RCCs
ICPAC
SADC-CSC
Pilot RCCs
Pilot RCC Networks
Pilot RCCs by 2012
Pilot RCC Networks by 2012
Pilot RCCs in development
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Regional Climate Outlook Forums
(RCOFs)
• RCOFs provide platforms for Climate experts and climate
information users to:
– Discuss current climate status
– Exchange views on scientific developments in climate prediction
– Develop consensus-based regional climate outlooks that can feed
into national climate outlooks produced by NMHSs
– Engage in user-provider dialogue
• An important aspect of RCOFs is the facility to bring together
experts in various fields, at regular intervals, operational
climate providers and end users of forecasts in an
environment that encourages interaction and learning.
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Consensus Process in RCOFs: Expert Assessment
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Observations
Average
climate
Teleconnections
Climate
patterns
Forcing
Factors
Assessment
(conversation)
Forecasts
Background
Forcing
Factors
Global/
Regional
(e.g., ENSO, NAO, etc.)
National/
Empirical
Regional, seasonal
Outlook (temp, rain, flows)
Products
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Regional Climate Outlook Forums worldwide
NEACOF
PRESANORD/
MedCOF
EASCOF
SASCOF
SEACOF ?!
NEBCOF
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Towards Polar RCCs
• HLT-GFCS cites Arctic and Antarctic RCCs as examples of useful
entities spanning WMO RAs
• Polar RCCs need to focus on climate data and monitoring products
and assess/communicate operational LRF skills; also take up climate
change assessments
• Given the advanced capacities of NMHSs operating/having interests in
the Polar Regions, an RCC-Network structure is proposed with the
mandatory/highly recommended functions distributed among
participating hosts, but covering the entire area of responsibility.
• Three separate RCC-Networks proposed: Arctic, Antarctic and Third
Pole.
• PCOFs can be taken up as part of the operational responsibilities of
Polar RCCs.
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For consideration of EC-PORS-3
• Endorse the implementation strategy for RCCs in Polar
Regions.
• Provide guidance on the required collaborative arrangements
and operational processes, including user engagement.
• Establish a PORS Task Team on RCC/RCOF
Implementation, to liaise with the relevant stakeholders on
development, implementation and operational matters.
• Endorse the proposed approach to set up, as a showcase,
and Arctic RCC-Network and a PCOF-Arctic, guide the
planning through the above PORS Task Team.
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WMO OMM
Arctic RCC-Network/PCOF-Arctic:
Approach
• Establish an Implementation Committee (IC) under joint
agreement by RA II, IV and VI, and by WMO Members in the
pan-Arctic Region.
• IC to function largely through electronic communication.
• IC to identify the various functional elements required for the
Arctic RCC-Network, develop a suitable structure, identify
potential hosts/stakeholders and seek commitments and plan
a demonstration phase
• Scope the structure of PCOF-Arctic as an integral
component of Arctic RCC-Network operations.
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WMO OMM
Thank you
Merci
Спасибо
Gracias
‫ﺷﻜﺮا‬
谢谢
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