Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Core Political Data
07.29.2016
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be
disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
© 2016 Ipsos
1
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted
for
date
July 25-29, 2016
For the survey,
a sample of
2,157
Americans
including
899
Democrats
753
Republicans
ages
266
Independents
18+
were interviewed online
2
The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.
In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points
2.4
3.7
4.1
6.9
for all adults
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
3
 The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:
– Gender
– Age
– Education
– Ethnicity
 Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.
 All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but
not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
 Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but
less than one half of one per cent.
 Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
 To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit
http://polling.reuters.com/.
© 2016 Ipsos
4
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Right Direction/Wrong Track
14%
18%
Right Direction
Wrong Track
5% 8%
16%
11%
12%
34%
All Adults
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Don’t Know
68%
51%
87%
78%
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in
the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
© 2016 Ipsos
5
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Main Problem Facing America
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
Total
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Economy generally
Unemployment / lack of jobs
War / foreign conflicts
15%
9%
3%
14%
9%
3%
17%
8%
4%
16%
12%
1%
Immigration
5%
2%
8%
4%
Terrorism / terrorist attacks
Healthcare
Energy issues
Morality
Education
Crime
Environment
Don’t know
Other
24%
7%
1%
9%
4%
8%
2%
5%
7%
21%
8%
2%
6%
8%
11%
4%
2%
8%
31%
6%
0%
11%
1%
5%
1%
2%
6%
20%
8%
1%
14%
3%
7%
3%
5%
6%
© 2016 Ipsos
6
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Main Problem Facing America
Economy Generally
45%
Unemployment / jobs
40%
Healthcare
35%
Terrorism
Immigration
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2012
© 2016 Ipsos
2013
2014
2015
2016
7
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Barack Obama
Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as
President?
Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”)
Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Lean towards approve
Lean towards disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
TOTAL APPROVE
TOTAL DISAPPROVE
© 2016 Ipsos
Total
Democrat
Republican
Independent
26%
16%
3%
3%
11%
35%
6%
45%
49%
54%
24%
3%
2%
7%
8%
2%
81%
17%
5%
8%
1%
2%
13%
69%
1%
15%
84%
13%
16%
3%
7%
19%
32%
9%
33%
58%
8
0%
JAN 1-7, 2012
JAN 22-28, 2012
FEB 12-18, 2012
MAR 4-MAR 10, 2012
MAR 25-31, 2012
APR 15-21, 2012
MAY 6-12, 2012
MAY 27-JUN 2, 2012
JUN 17-23, 2012
JUL 8-14, 2012
JUL 29-AUG 4, 2012
AUG 19-25, 2012
SEPT 10-15, 2012
SEPT 30-OCT 6, 2012
OCT 21-27, 2012
NOV 11-17, 2012
DEC 2-8, 2012
DEC 23-29, 2012
JAN 8-14, 2013
JAN 29-FEB 4, 2013
FEB 19-25, 2013
MAR 12-18, 2013
APR 2-8, 2013
APR 23-29, 2013
MAY 14-20, 2013
JUN 4-10, 2013
JUN 25-JUL 1, 2013
JUL 16-22, 2013
AUG 6-12, 2013
AUG 27-SEPT 2, 2013
SEPT 17-23, 2013
OCT 8-14, 2013
OCT 29-NOV 4, 2013
NOV 19-25, 2013
DEC 10-16, 2013
DECEMBER 31, 2013
JAN 15-21, 2014
FEB 5-11, 2014
FEB 26-MAR 4, 2014
MAR 19-25, 2014
APR 9-15, 2014
APR 30-MAY 6, 2014
MAY 21-27, 2014
JUN 11-17, 2014
JUL 2-8, 2014
JUL 23-29, 2014
AUG 13-19, 2014
SEPT 3-9, 2014
SEPT 24-30, 2014
OCT 15-21, 2014
NOV 5-11, 2014
NOV 26-DEC 1, 2014
DEC 17-23, 2014
JAN 8-14, 2015
JAN 29-FEB 4, 2015
FEB. 19-25, 2015
MARCH 12-18, 2015
APRIL 2-8, 2015
APRIL 23-29, 2015
MAY 21-27, 2015
JUN 11- JUN 17, 2015
JULY 1-JULY 7, 2015
JULY 22- JULY 28, 2015
AUG 12- AUG 18, 2015
SEPT 3-9, 2015
SEPT 24-30, 2015
OCTOBER 15-21, 2015
NOVEMBER 4-10, 2015
NOVEMBER 25-…
DECEMBER 16-22, 2015
JAUNARY 6-12, 2016
JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY…
FEBRUARY 20-24, 2016
MARCH 11-15, 2016
APRIL 2-APRIL 6, 2016
APRIL 22-26, 2016
MAY 13-17, 2016
JUNE 4-8, 2016
JUNE 25-29, 2016
JULY 16-20, 2016
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Weekly Approval
70%
60%
50%
49%
40%
45%
30%
20%
Total Approve
Total Disapprove
10%
© 2016 Ipsos
* Starting June 1st, 2016, this slide will reflect data from the same five-day field period as the rest of this report. Previously, this
chart was based off of a seven-day roll-up.
9
REGISTERED VOTERS / LIKELY VOTERS
Trump / Clinton Head-to-Head
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below,
for whom would you vote?
(Asked of registered voters, n=1,290)
Hillary Clinton (Democrat)
Donald Trump (Republican)
Other
Wouldn’t Vote
Don’t know / Refused
Likely
Voters (LV)
Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
40%
35%
8%
5%
12%
40%
33%
12%
5%
11%
75%
9%
8%
2%
6%
6%
70%
10%
4%
9%
23%
20%
30%
9%
17%
Likely Voter: n= 1,050
© 2016 Ipsos
10
REGISTERED VOTERS
Trump / Clinton Head-to-Head
60%
50%
40% Clinton
40%
33% Trump
30%
20%
7/20/16
7/13/16
7/6/16
6/29/16
6/22/16
6/15/16
6/8/16
6/1/16
5/25/16
5/18/16
5/11/16
5/4/16
4/27/16
4/20/16
4/13/16
4/6/16
3/30/16
3/23/16
3/16/16
3/9/16
3/2/16
2/24/16
2/17/16
2/10/16
2/3/16
1/27/16
1/20/16
1/13/16
1/6/16
0%
7/27/16
7/29/2016
10%
**The vertical line indicates the week that the Reuters/Ipsos poll changed the wording for the voting intention question, removing the word
‘Neither’ from the ‘Neither/Other’ choice that had been present previously. To read more on this change, please visit:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-reutersipsos-idUSKCN10910T and http://spotlight.ipsos-na.com/index.php/elections/reutersipsos-presidential-ballot-question/
© 2016 Ipsos
11
REGISTERED VOTERS / LIKELY VOTERS
Trump / Clinton Head-to-Head, Including Johnson & Stein
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below,
for whom would you vote?
(Asked of registered voters, n=1,788)
Hillary Clinton (Democrat)
Donald Trump (Republican)
Gary Johnson (Libertarian)
Jill Stein (Green)
Other
Wouldn’t Vote
Don’t know / Refused
Likely
Voters (LV)
Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
37%
37%
5%
1%
5%
5%
10%
37%
34%
8%
3%
5%
3%
9%
72%
8%
5%
4%
5%
1%
5%
6%
72%
9%
1%
4%
2%
6%
21%
19%
18%
6%
7%
9%
18%
Likely Voter: n= 1,433
© 2016 Ipsos
12
© 2016 Ipsos
7/27/16
7/29/16
7/20/16
7/13/16
7/6/16
6/29/16
6/22/16
6/15/16
6/8/16
6/1/16
5/25/16
5/18/16
5/11/16
5/4/16
4/27/16
4/20/16
70%
7/27/16
7/29/16
7/20/16
7/13/16
7/6/16
6/29/16
6/22/16
6/15/16
6/8/16
6/1/16
5/25/16
5/18/16
5/11/16
5/4/16
4/27/16
4/20/16
4/13/16
4/6/16
3/30/16
3/23/16
3/16/16
3/9/16
3/2/16
2/24/16
2/17/16
2/10/16
2/3/16
1/27/16
1/20/16
1/13/16
1/6/16
70%
4/13/16
4/6/16
3/30/16
3/23/16
3/16/16
3/9/16
3/2/16
2/24/16
2/17/16
2/10/16
2/3/16
1/27/16
1/20/16
1/13/16
1/6/16
REGISTERED VOTERS
General Election Candidate Favorability
Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures?
(Data Collected in 2016)
Donald Trump
60%
57% Unfavorable
50%
40%
43% Favorable
30%
Hillary Clinton
60%
50%
57% Unfavorable
40%
43% Favorable
30%
13
REGISTERED VOTERS
Congressional Head-to-Head
In 2016, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the
Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for U.S. Congress in your district where
you live?
(Asked of registered voters, n=1,788)
Democratic Candidate
Republican Candidate
Candidate from Another
Party
Will not/do not plan to vote
Don’t know / Refused
Likely
Voters (LV)
Registered
Voters (RV)
Democrats
(RV)
Republicans
(RV)
Independents
(RV)
38%
37%
41%
34%
84%
4%
4%
80%
18%
15%
3%
6%
3%
2%
23%
5%
16%
4%
16%
1%
8%
3%
11%
9%
34%
Likely Voter: n= 1,433
© 2016 Ipsos
14
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Political Identity
14%
Strong Democrat
Moderate Democrat
Lean Democrat
Lean Republican
19%
7%
6%
Moderate Republican
16%
11%
Strong Republican
Independent
12%
None of these
7%
DK
7%
40%
Democrat
Republican
34%
Independent
12%
None/DK
14%
All Adults: n= 2,157
© 2016 Ipsos
15
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility
Intervals
•
The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the
parameter θ\, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number
of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y )̅ is a natural estimate of the true
population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept
in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior
distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution
represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample
data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey
information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a
beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
•
Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals
represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base.
There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure
of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we
will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs
when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the
normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:
© 2016 Ipsos
16
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility
Intervals
For this poll,
The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for
complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.
SAMPLE SIZE
Ipsos does not publish data
for base sizes
(sample sizes) below 100.
2,000
1,500
1,000
750
500
350
200
100
CREDIBILITY
INTERVALS
2.5
2.9
3.5
4.1
5.0
6.0
7.9
11.2
1 Bayesian
2 Kish,
Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003
L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.
© 2016 Ipsos
17
ABOUT IPSOS
GAME CHANGERS
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© 2016 Ipsos
18