SAMRISK
Principles, methods and models for determining the right
level of investments in societal safety and security
2007-2011
University of Stavanger/IRIS
Professor Terje Aven
Principle objectives
To develop principles, methods and
models for determining the right
investments in societal safety and
security, taking into account different
and potentially conflicting objectives
in the decision process
Key researchers
– Professor Terje Aven, University of Stavanger
– Professor Michael Jones-Lee, University of Newcastle, UK and
University of Stavanger (adjunct professor)
– Professor Ortwin Renn, University of Stuttgart, Germany and
University of Stavanger (adjunct professor)
– Ass. professor Seth Guikema, John Hopkins University, USA
and University of Stavanger (adjunct professor)
– Ass. prof Eirik B. Abrahamsen, University of Stavanger
– Professor Frank Asche, University of Stavanger
– Professor Jan Erik Vinnem, University of Stavanger
• 1 Ph.D (finansiert utenom prosjektet) Riana Steen.
• Flere andre PhD-er har også deltatt og deltar med
enkeltarbeider.
Publications
Books
• Aven (2010) Misconceptions of Risk. Wiley.
• Aven, T. and O. Renn (2010) Risk management
and Risk Governance. Concepts,Guidelines and
Applications. Springer Verlag.
• Aven, T. (2011) Risk assessment. The scientific
platform. Cambridge University Press.
Aven (2010) Misconceptions of Risk. Wiley.
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Risk is equal to the expected value
Risk is a probability or a probability distribution
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Risk is the same as risk perception
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Risk is determined by the historical data
Risk assessments produce an objective risk picture
There are large inherent uncertainties in risk analyses
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The main objective of risk management is risk reduction
Decision-making under uncertainty should be science (analysis)-based
The precautionary principle and risk management cannot be meaningfully
integrated
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Conclusions
Journal papers
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(* level 2)
Abrahamsen, E. B. and Aven, T. (2008) On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative
theories for decision-making. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 93, 1906-1910.*
Aven, T. and Renn, O. (2009) On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain. J. Risk
Research, 12, 1-11.
Aven, T. and Renn, O. (2009) The role of quantitative risk assessments for characterizing risk and
uncertainty and delineating appropriate risk management options, with special emphasis on terrorism
risk. Risk Analysis. 29, 587-600*
Aven, T. (2009) Perspectives on risk in a decision-making context – Review and discussion. Safety
Science. 47, 798–806.*
Aven, T. (2009) Safety is the antonym of risk for some perspectives of risk. Safety science. 47, 925–
930. *
Aven, T. (2009) Risk analysis and risk management. Basic concepts and principles Reliability & Risk
Analysis: Theory & Applications, 2, 57-73.
Aven, T. (2009) Identification of safety and security critical systems and activities. Reliability
Engineering and System Safety. 94, 404-411. *
Aven, T. (2009) Trends in risk analysis. International Journal of Performability Engineering. 5, 447461.
Flage, R. and Aven, T. (2009) Expressing and communicating uncertainty in relation to quantitative
risk analysis (QRA) Reliability & Risk Analysis: Theory & Applications. 2(13), 9-18.
Aven, T. and Heide, B. (2009) Reliability and validity of risk analysis. Reliability Engineering and
System Safety. 94, 1862–1868. *
Jones-Lee, M. and Aven, T. (2009) The Role of Social Cost-Benefit Analysis in Societal DecisionMaking Under Large Uncertainties with Application to Robbery at a Cash Depot. Reliability
Engineering and System Safety. 94, 1954–1961. *
Aven, T. (2009) A new scientific framework for quantitative risk assessments. International Journal of
Business Continuity and Risk Management IJBCRM.
Aven, T. (2010) On the need for restricting the probabilistic analysis in risk assessments to variability.
Risk analysis. To appear. *
Aven, T. (2010) Some reflections on uncertainty analysis and management. Reliability Engineering and
System Safety. To appear. *
Journal papers
(in the process and submitted)
In the process (Revised and resubmitted)
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Guikema, S. and Aven, T. (2009) Assessing Risk from Intelligent Attacks: A Perspective on
approaches
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Aven, T. (2009) Uncertainty should replace probability in the definition of risk
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Aven, T. (2009) Business loves risk assessments
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Vinnem, J.E. (2008) Risk analysis planning processes of hazardous facilities – a case of an LNG
plant in an urban area.
Submitted
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Abrahamsen, E. and Asche F. The insurance market’s influence on investments in safety
measures
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Aven, T. and Steen, R. (2008) The concept of ignorance under different risk perspectives
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Aven, T. (2009) An integrated framework for decision support on risk and uncertainty
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Aven, T. (2009) On different types of uncertainties in the context of the precautionary principle
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Nygaard, L.F. and Aven, T. (2009) On the link between risk perspectives and risk regulation - a
comparison between two cases concerning base stations and wireless networks.
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Aven, T. (2009) A holistic framework for conceptualising and describing risk
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Aven, T. and Steen, R. (2009) On the boundaries of probabilistic risk assessment in the face of
uncertainties, a case of piracy and armed robberies against ships in the Gulf of Aden.
Other publications
Chapters in books
– Aven, T. (2009) Risk management Theden book. In Grimvall, G.; Holmgren, Å.; Jacobsson, P.;
Thedéen, T. (Eds.) Risks in Technological Systems. Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, ISBN:
978-1-84882-640-3.
– Aven, T. (2009) Risk assessments and black swans. Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and
Management Science Editorial Office
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Aven, T. (2010) Economists’ perspectives on risk: towards a unifying approach. In Rethinking Risk
Measurement, Management and Reporting: Bayesian Analysis and Expert Elicitation. Risk Books, London.
Other papers presented at international conferences and in proceedings (with reviewers)
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Steen, R. and Aven, T. (2008) Comparisons and discussion of different integrated risk perspectives. ESREL
2008.
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Steen, R. and Aven, T., (2009) An integration of the willingness to pay and the precautionary principles: A
case of use of wireless technology in Norwegian schools. ESREL 2009.
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Ale, B. Aven, T. and Jongejan, R. (2009) Review and discussion of basic concepts and principles in
integrated risk management. ESREL 2009.
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Abrahamsen, E.B., Aven, T. an Iversen, R.S. (2009) Integrated framework for safety management and
uncertainty management in petroleum operations. SSARS 09
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Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen, Terje Aven, Willy Røed (2009) A new visualizing tool for communicating
cost-effectiveness of safety measures. SSARS 2009
Kronikker m.m.
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Aven, T. (2009) Kronikk Stavanger Aftenblad, 7/5-09, Hvor god beredskap bør vi ha?
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Aven, T. (2009) Kronikk Stavanger Aftenblad, 20/9-09. Terrorfaren er fiktiv.
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Aven, T. (2009) Intervju Den kalde risikoberegnings kunst. Univers 3, UiS
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Aven, T. Intervju i ukeavisen ledelse om risikostyring.
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Aven, T. (2008) Uflaks, Stavanger Aftenblad, 10/4-08.
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Aven, T. (2008) På eget ansvar. Menneskets oppfatning av risiko er svært forskjellig. Pluss Stavanger
Aftenblad 22/8-08.
Hva handler forskningen om?
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Grunnleggende om hva risiko er og hvordan
risiko bør beskrives
Implikasjonene dette har i forhold til
risikoanalysene og bruken av disse i en
beslutningssammenheng
Implikasjonene dette har i forhold til spørsmål
knyttet til risikoaksept og risikostyring generelt,
og spesielt i forhold til hva som er et riktig
investeringsnivå når det gjelder sikkerhet
(safety/security).
Kåseri – Kronikk 20/9-09
Terrorfaren er fiktiv
Er det større risiko for å
drukne i do enn for å bli
rammet av terror? Ja,
mener noen
forståsegpåere.
Faren/risikoen er
mikroskopisk – den er fiktiv –
den er ikke noe å være redd
for.
Sikkerhetstiltakene har ingen
effekt – risikoen er jo så lav
likevel
Kampen mot terror er tidens store
folkeforførelse.
Hva er risiko?
• Risiko: (A,C,U)
• Risikobeskrivelse
(A,C,U,P,K)
• A: hendelse, for eksempel
terrorangrep
• C: konsekvenser
• U: usikkerhet
• P: sannsynlighet
• K: bakgrunnskunnskap
Uncertainty
Risk
Severity
Activity
Values at stake
Events and
consequences
(outcomes)
Values at stake
Risiko
U
Risikoanalyse
P
LNG plant
Risavika
Future research
• To områder som spesielt vil adresseres er
• ii) metoder for å beskrive risiko og
usikkerhet og
• i) forståelse og implementering av ALARP
prinsippet.
Workshop LA 22-23 January 2010
On the Assessment and Communication of Risk and Uncertainties
in a Practical Decision Making Context: Beyond Traditional
Frameworks
Objectives
Bring together some of the world leading
researchers in the field of analysis and
management of risks of complex systems and
processes with the aim of discussing how
uncertainties should be assessed and treated
beyond the methods used in traditional
quantitative probabilistic risk assessments in a
practical decision-making context.