JASPERS Networking Platform
Workshop
“Promoting climate change adaptation, risk prevention
and management in the Water Sector”
21-22/10/2014
Brussels
Climate change resilience in flood risk
management in Hungary
Zoltan Balint PhD
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
Five questions
1. Where?
2. What?
3. Why?
4. How?
5. What?
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
1. Where?
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
2. What are the facts, what is the history ?
Danube River Basin
Floods are created
outside the frontiers
28-36 hour flood
accumulation
 8-10 m rise of water
level in 1-1.5 days
Long duration
Downstream
country
Flat area
Significant flood
vulnerability
The Hungarian territory is
highly vulnerable to floods
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
2. What is the history?
Inundations before 1846
Periodic water covered area
Permanent water covered area
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
2. What is the history?
The original (old) Vasarhelyi Plan
Shorte
ning
First Tisza Law: 1884
Length reduced from 1419 km to 966 km
Number of river cuts: 112
Flood duration reduced form 5 months to 2.5 months
Slope of the river increased from 3.7 cm/km to 6 cm/km
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
2. What are the facts?
Floodplains and defences in Hungary
Rivers:
2800 km
Main drainage
canals: 8500 km
Length of primary defences 4200 km, protected fluvial floodplain 21200 km2,
23% of the territory of the country, which is unique in Europe.
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
2. What are the facts?
Improvement of the conveyance
capacity of the floodway
Flood management
Retention of 1,5 billion m3 water
– flood plain reactivation
Regional development
Recreation
Raise the height of the flood
dikes
Vásárhelyi-Plan
sustainable eco-region
along the Tisza
Modern agriculture
(extensive, bio-farming)
Ecotourism
Nature and environmental
protection, biodiversity
Firm legal basis: Act on Implementation of the Vásárhelyi Plan
Complex programme, not just flood safety improvement
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
2. What are the facts?
Complex flood management
• 11 retention area selected from 30 possible locations
3.5 * that of IRMA
* 75 thousand ha
•1,5 bln m3 capacity
7.0 * that of IRMA
•with controlled inundation
• Involvement of oxbows, wetland development
• Landuse adaptation to risks
• Improvement of living conditions of the population
affected
Cost: HUF 130 billion (€ 520 M)
Result:
-- Flood crest reduction by ~ 0,6-1,0 m;
Source: A. LOVAS: NEW APPROACH IN SUSTAINABLE FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN THE TISZA VALLEY
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
2. What are the facts?
Flood levels are still
rising in Hungary
Vásárosnamény
vízállásainak
alakulása
éves adatok alapján
Annual maximum
flood levels
at Vásárosnamény
cm
900
700
R2 = 0.0344
500
300
R2 = 0.1164
100
-100
R2 = 0.109
-300
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
kisvíz
cm
1000
1950
nagyvíz
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
közepes vízállás
Vásárosnamény
I. foknál
vízállás
adatainak
alakulása
Flood
peaks above
thenagyobb
first alert
level
at Vásárosnamény
950
943
923
912
900
850
800
750
700
650
550
500
1947
1948
1949
1952
1953
1955
1957
1958
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1970
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
1995
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2013
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Duna –Nagymaros (1695 fkm); In 50 years: + 69 cm
600
4000
m3/s
Vásárosnamény vízhozamának alakulása éves adatok alapján
Flood discharges at Vásárosnamény
3500
Kisvízhozam
Nagyvízhozam
Közepes vízhozam
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Tisza –Tiszabecs (744 fkm); In 50 years: + 166 cm
0
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
169 km dikes and 85 km of other infrastucture
built between 2002-2012 on the Upper-Tisza.
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
3. Why?
- upstream dike building?
-flood conveying capacity?
-land use change?
-climate change?
Increase flood conveyance capacity
Forest coverage in the mountaineous regions of River Tisza
What percentage?
Combined effect?
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
3. Why?
summer
Climate change (examples)
Trend=1mm/day/110 years
Summer rainfall
intensity
1901-2010
Trend=5 day/110 years
Number of very
hot days
1901-2010
Source: HREX report (Hungary)
Jeges napok száma Vásárosnaménynál (idényenként)
Numbers of frosty days at Vásárosnamény
120
Climate change
52 nap
Average:Átlag:
53 days
Maximum:
113113
days
Max:
nap
100
Napok száma
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
3. Why?
80
60
40
20
0
1900-01.
1910-11.
1920-21
1930-31
1940-41
1950-51
1960-61
1970-71
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Mean temperature (oC) changes between 1983 and 2012
Summer
Year
1980-81
1990-91
2000-2001
2010-2011
Rainfall amount in the run-length
3. Why?
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
Distribution of rainfall run-length
Period: 1981-2011
Period: 2020-2050
Probability distribution
Probability distribution
Distributon of precipitation run-lengths
Period: 1981-2011
Period: 2020-2050
Period: 1981-2011
Period: 2020-2050
Precipitation (mm)
Above 20 days
Probability distribution
Probability distribution
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
15-20 days
10-15 days
Precipitation (mm)
Period: 1981-2011
Period: 2020-2050
Run-legth (days)
Precipitation (mm)
Source: HYDROInform, THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD FORECASTING INFORMATION SYSTEM IN THE UPPERTISZA REGION, 2012
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
Tákos
How to incorporate
climate change
adaptations into the
projects?
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
4. How?
Impact of Climate Change factors on the original assumptions and goals of
the Plan based on expected climate change in Hungary (2021-2050)
summer
winter
down
rainfall amount
up
rainfall intensity
up
up
temperature
up
up
Further parmeters to consider:
Run-length of rainy periods shortens
Landuse changes
Ice cover changes
Further analysis is needed
Earlier
snowmelt
Time of rain
separate
from the
time of
snowmelt
Higher flood? Lower flood?
4. How?
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
New approach: flood risk
assessment
To include
climate scenarios
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
0,03% flood
Factors included:
-Flood height
-Week points in dikes
-economic risks
0.01% flood
0.001% flood
2013-2014
DATA COLLECTION AND CREATION FOR THE GENERATION
OF FLOOD RISK MAPS
STORING DATA IN DATABASES AND OTHER IFOMATION
MANAGEMENT RELATED TASKS
PREPARATION OF THE TECHNICAL TASKS FOR PHASE III
2014-2015
DATA COLLECTION, BASE STUDIES
Phase III - Vulnerability and flood risk maps, risk
management measures
FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT – PHASE II
Phase I- Metodology
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
4. How?
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
What to do?
Methodology development:
• Regional reflections of the global climate models
• Identification of extreme events (including
drought: What is drought?)
• Further develop trend analysis
• Risk management to be part of the final plan
Study causes of floods:
• upstream development of flood control
infrastructure
• flow carrying capacity of flood beds
• increased runoff (land use change, development
of settlements, deforestation)
• climate change
• combined effects
Drought zones
4000
Tiszabecs vízhozamának
alakulása éves at
adatok
alapján
Annual
peak discharges
Tiszabecs
m3/s
3500
Kisvízhozam
Nagyvízhozam
Közepes vízhozam
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
Tiszabecs vízállásainak alakulása éves adatok alapján
Annual
max. water stages at Tiszabecs
cm
700
500
300
R2 = 0.0122
100
R2 = 0.6584
-100
R2 = 0.7128
-300
1924
1934
1944
1954
kisvíz
1964
nagyvíz
1974
1984
közepes vízállás
1994
2004
2012
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
5. What to do?
Non-structural measures
UKRAINE
Ужгород
(Uzshorod)- UA
- Further develop flood monitoring systems
Satellite
transmission
30 stations
- Further develop rainfall and flood forecasts
- Enable quicker response of flood defence forces
- Reeinforce international cooperation
152 stations in the
Hungarian-Ukranian
monitoring system
HUNGARY
VHF: 18
stations
Upper-Tisza Water Directorate
(Nyíregyháza) - H
UKRAINE
Flood accumulation: less than a
day
Response time required: less
than a day
Source: Upper-Tisza Water Directorate Hungary
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
5. What to do?
Harmonized optimise operation of the flood
retention reservoirs based on climate scenarios
90-100 cm
D Z (cm)
0
Beregi tározó
Szamos-Kraszna
Beregi+Szamos-Krasznai+Cigándi
M ezővári+Beregi+Szamos-Krasznai+Cigándi
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
720
730
740
x, fkm
750
Tiszabecs
640
Szatmárcsege
630
Tivadar
Nagyar
620
Olcsvaapáti
610
Vásárosnamény
600
Tiszaszalka
590
Lónya
580
Záhony
570
Tuzsér
560
Dombrád
550
Tiszabercel
540
Tiszakóród
-100
Tokaj
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
-50
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
5. What to do?
Identification of adaptation options
Structural measures
Flood retention - in flood retention reservoirs
- on the fields
- for irriggation
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Flood dikes
- Increasing the hight if possible
- relocation of dikes
- demolishing summer dikes
Increase carrying capacity of flood beds
Land use change - retaining as much water on the field as possible
Reforestation
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
5. What to do?
Incorporate climate change analysis into reassessing and re-planning of
projects.
Climate scenarios
Rainfall prediction
area 1
Rainfall prediction
area 2
…
Flood simulation:
1D and 2D models
Varying factors:
-Raifall amount,
duration, intensity
-Snowmelt and its
timing
Factors to
incorporate:
-Conveying capacity
of flood bed
-Land use
Rainfall prediction
area „n”
Output analysis incl.
risk analysis (we
might take higher
risks than expensive
measures)
-Flood reduction by
retention reservoirs
-Flood diversion
Re-planning the
system
(e.g. number of retention
reservoirs, re-allocation of
dikes, cleaning the
floodway)
Climate change resilience
in flood risk management in Hungary
5. What to do?
Follow EU Guidelines
Sensitivity analysis (SA)
Evaluation of exposure (EE)
JASPERS Networking Platform Workshop
21-22/10/2014
Vulnerability analysis (incorporating the outputs of modules 1 and 2) (VA)
Risk assessment (RA)
Identification of adaptation options (IAO)
Appraisal of adaptation options (AAO)
Thank you for your attention
Photo: R.Hegedus
For info or further questions on this presentation, or on the activities of the JASPERS Networking Platform
please contact:
Massimo Marra
JASPERS Networking Platform Senior Officer
ph: +352 4379 85007
[email protected]
www.jaspersnetwork.org
[email protected]
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